Evening Notes: NHL Preseason Odds, Lites, Cholowski
Oddsmakers have released preliminary odds for the 2019-20 NHL season with the Tampa Bay Lightning and Vegas Golden Knights at the lead as the two teams most likely to reach the Stanley Cup Finals next season, released by SuperbookUSA. The Tampa Bay Lightning are projected to lead the league again in points with 108.5, while Vegas is expected to lead the Western Conference with 103.5 points.
Here are the rest of the projections:
Anaheim Ducks – 80.5
Arizona Coyotes – 91.5
Boston Bruins – 100.5
Buffalo Sabres – 83.5
Calgary Flames – 96.5
Carolina Hurricanes – 94.5
Chicago Blackhawks – 90.5
Colorado Avalanche – 100.5
Columbus Blue Jackets – 82.5
Dallas Stars – 96.5
Detroit Red Wings – 76.5
Edmonton Oilers – 85.5
Florida Panthers – 96.5
Los Angeles Kings – 74.5
Minnesota Wild – 84.5
Montreal Canadiens – 89.5
Nashville Predators – 97.5
New Jersey Devils – 88.5
New York Islanders – 94.5
New York Rangers – 88.5
Ottawa Senators – 68.5
Philadelphia Flyers – 90.5
Pittsburgh Penguins – 95.5
San Jose Sharks – 94.5
St. Louis Blues – 96.5
Tampa Bay Lightning – 108.5
Toronto Maple Leafs – 102.5
Vancouver Canucks – 88.5
Vegas Golden Knights – 103.5
Washington Capitals – 97.5
Winnipeg Jets – 96.5
- SportsDay’s Mathew DeFranks writes that despite comments made last season by Dallas Stars CEO Jim Lites about Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn, there was little consequence to that this offseason as the Stars were quite successful this offseason as they managed to sign Joe Pavelski, Corey Perry and Andrej Sekera. The scribe writes that in the end, free agents looked at three things when it comes to Dallas. First, they are Stanley Cup contenders. Second, they had plenty of cap space and finally, Dallas is a destination that many players prefer to live in, especially in the winter.
- The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James writes that Detroit Red Wings defenseman Dennis Cholowski spoke at a hockey youth camp recently and stated that he is focused on fixing his defensive liabilities in hopes of returning to the Red Wings’ lineup next season. Cholowski looked like a franchise-changing defenseman early on but was eventually demoted to the Grand Rapids Griffins due to his lack of success on the defensive side of his game. The 21-year-old scored seven goals and 16 points in 52 games last season but also had a team-worst plus-minus at minus-20. “Having to go down to Grand Rapids was a disappointment a little bit; I guess it would be for anybody,” Cholowski said. “In order to play you have to be good defensively and then that generates the offense. So I’m working on the D-zone and hopefully I take those things I learned into camp this year.”
Flames Were Close To Signing Ryan Reaves Last Summer
- The Flames added some grit in yesterday’s acquisition of winger Milan Lucic but they’ve been on the lookout for a physical presence for a while now. Sportsnet’s Eric Francis reports that Calgary believed they had a deal in place with winger Ryan Reaves last summer before he changed his mind and opted to re-sign with Vegas instead. Considering the Golden Knights still need to shed some salary, it’s likely that they would have spoken with the Flames about Reaves although with Lucic now in the fold, that’s probably doubtful to happen at this point.
Jake Bischoff Signs Three-Year Contract With Vegas Golden Knights
The Vegas Golden Knights have locked up one of their minor league defensemen, signing Jake Bischoff to a three-year contract through the 2021-22 season. The deal carries an average annual value of just $716,667, making Bischoff an incredibly cheap depth option for the team. The 24-year old defenseman will be an unrestricted free agent at the deal’s end.
Bischoff came to the Golden Knights as part of the team’s expansion draft trade with the New York Islanders, and has spent the last two seasons in the minor leagues. A former star at the University of Minnesota, Bischoff has a polished two-way game that has him knocking on the NHL door. Prior to this offseason the Golden Knights were overloaded with depth defensemen though, meaning there was limited opportunity to get into any actual game action. Bischoff made the Golden Knights out of camp last year but failed to suit up for a single NHL game.
This time around though that might not be the case. Vegas currently has just five other defensemen on one-way contracts, meaning Bischoff will be battling with the likes of Zach Whitecloud and Jimmy Schuldt for playing time. That is of course if they even keep the rest of the group, which is certainly not a guarantee given they need to clear some cap room at some point in the future. Nick Holden‘s $2.2MM cap hit seems like an obvious choice, though that would only limit their NHL experience even further. Deryk Engelland is expected to sign with the Golden Knights before the season begins, adding another name into the competition for players like Bischoff.
Malcolm Subban Re-Signs With Vegas Golden Knights
Just a few moments after the announcement of his scheduled arbitration hearing, Malcolm Subban won’t need it anymore. The young goaltender has re-signed with the Vegas Golden Knights on a one-year deal worth $850K. Golden Knights executive George McPhee released this statement:
We are pleased to announce this one-year contract for Malcolm. He’s been a valuable contributor to our team over the last two seasons. We are excited to continue to work with Malcolm and help him reach his full potential as an NHL goaltender.
Subban, 25, is set to return as Marc-Andre Fleury‘s backup next season and get another chance at really establishing himself in the NHL. Though he has played 43 games for the Golden Knights the last two seasons, he has just a 21-14-4 record and .906 save percentage. While that’s good enough to start the odd game, it’s not exactly positioning himself to take over as the full-time starter should Fleury’s age catch up with him at some point. If he ever wants that role, he’ll have to improve his consistency dramatically this year.
For the Golden Knights though, it was unlikely they were going to find a substantially better option on the open market for this type of contract. The near-minimum salary is exactly what they needed as they continue to deal with cap issues, and if another opportunity presents itself Subban’s deal can be entirely buried in the minor leagues. Betting that the 2012 first-round pick can improve as he enters the usual prime goaltending years isn’t a bad one either, especially knowing that depth goaltending hits waivers frequently throughout the year.
Subban will be a restricted free agent again next summer with arbitration rights.
Latest On Nikita Gusev And The Golden Knights
A player who a few short months ago was simply excited to finally be in North America and looking forward to playing for the Golden Knights is now in the middle of a high-pressure negotiation that could force him to be traded for the third time before even making his NHL debut. Nikita Gusev finally made the jump this spring after a phenomenal KHL career and the Russian forward was hoping to take the next step of his career with Vegas. However, the 27-year-old scorer also sought fair value, burning his entry-level deal to negotiate a fair contract. The problem is that the Knights lack the space to meet even modest demands, currently over the cap and with other players to sign. The question now is whether Gusev becomes a casualty of the cap crunch or whether Vegas is willing to move other pieces to retain him.
The Athletic’s Jesse Granger reports that the Golden Knights and Gusev’s camp are currently $2MM apart in terms of AAV on a new contract. Gusev has long been rumored to be seeking at least $4MM annually, while Granger believes the offer on the table is two years at $2MM. Granger estimates that Vegas has just over $2.5MM of cap space to work with after moving David Clarkson to the LTIR, if they make no other moves. However, Gusev is not the only player in need of a new contract, as backup goalie Malcolm Subban, standout collegiate defender Jimmy Schuldt, and potentially veteran leader Deryk Engelland are all in need of extensions. Even if Gusev were to accept the current offer or potentially even if he were to be traded, the Knights would still need to make a move to clear out cap space, so another deal is nearly unavoidable. Granger wonders if the hold up in negotiations is simply the calculus of who Vegas would have to move out to meet Gusev’s demands.
The longer that talks drag on, the more likely a Gusev trade becomes. The dynamic winger is not without fans around the league who would be willing to take a chance at his current asking price. The Hockey News’ Steven Ellis names five teams that have both the interest and the means in cap space and trade capital to acquire Gusev: the Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, Columbus Blue Jackets, Ottawa Senators, and Edmonton Oilers. Unsurprisingly, three of those five teams – Ottawa, New Jersey, and Columbus – are among the bottom five in the league in payroll and would have no concerns about paying Gusev. Montreal just took a big swing and miss at Sebastian Aho on an offer sheet, so they’re clearly willing to pay up for scoring as well. Edmonton would be a tight squeeze, but the Oilers could desperately use more forward talent to surround Connor McDavid. Ottawa could be most appealing to Gusev if he want to become a team’s centerpiece and boost his public image, while the upstart Devils may be his best chance at winning a Stanley Cup as soon as possible. However, Gusev’s preferences will matter little to Vegas if they do choose to move him, likely opting for the best package of picks and prospects they can find.
A resolution won’t be easy to come by, although both Granger and Ellis agree that the Golden Knights would be better served by keeping Gusev. If the team can figure out their cap situation, perhaps by moving the contracts of non-core players like Ryan Reaves and Nick Holden or Jon Merrill, then keeping Gusev is the ideal move given his ceiling and the potential for Vegas to have the most formidable forward corps in the league. Moving Gusev will likely bring back a nice return in building blocks, but at the cost of could-be superstar. It is not an easy choice for Vegas, whereas Gusev holds all the leverage as a KHL icon but unproven NHL commodity just waiting for his chance to break out, in Vegas or otherwise. So long as he gets paid a fair wage, Gusev is likely willing to begin his NHL career anywhere.
Poll: How Many Top 50 Free Agents Will Opt For Retirement?
A week into free agency, the vast majority of PHR’s Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents are under contract. Unsurprisingly, many of those left unsigned are on the wrong side of 30 or even at or approaching 40. Veterans tend to be later additions in free agency, as teams aren’t rushing to sign them to long-term deals to be core pieces, but rather seek to use them to plug holes in the lineup after the fact. As of now, there are nine names in the Top 50 that are legitimate candidates for retirement. Some have offers on the table and are taking their time to make a decision, while other may not have much of a market and could have to choose between a PTO or calling it a career. How many will choose retirement this summer?
Justin Williams, 37, enjoyed a tremendous 53-point season with the Carolina Hurricanes this past season and looked far from done. GM Don Waddell hinted that the captain will return next season, but until pen meets paper it remains a question mark. Williams was a key piece of the Hurricanes’ run to the Eastern Conference Final last season and would be a major loss for the team. However, he could opt to go out on top as a player who has seen very little drop-off in production through his 30’s and hit his highest point total since 2011-12 last season. Williams can still play, but the question is whether he wants to.
Joe Thornton, 40, not only wants to play next season, but wants to play several more years. The future Hall of Famer has already had an illustrious career, but has yet to win that elusive Stanley Cup. Thornton would like to return to the San Jose Sharks, one of only two teams he’s played for in his 21-year career, and the Sharks should be able to find the space to bring him back after moving out salary via trade and free agency departures. However, Thornton’s asking price will play a part – he did top 50 points again last season – as will the Sharks’ interest in bringing back another retirement threat. Patrick Marleau, 39, left San Jose two years ago to join the Toronto Maple Leafs, but has since been bought out and all signs point to a desire to return to the Sharks. These two legendary Sharks are both capable of continuing their NHL careers, but can San Jose fit them both and are either willing to sign elsewhere at this point in their careers?
Brian Boyle, 34, enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2018-19 and netted a second-round pick at the trade deadline. He clearly still has value as a big, smart two-way forward, but the lack of attention he has garnered thus far in free agency is curious. Boyle did not make as much of an impact in Nashville post-trade as he did in New Jersey and teams may be skeptical of his production moving forward. Between a cold market and recent health concerns, Boyle may be considering calling it a career while he’s still considered an elite defensive forward. However, it would be a surprise if there isn’t a team in the NHL who could still use Boyle’s ability.
Dion Phaneuf, 34, is fresh off of a buyout and should be available at a bargain rate as he continues to cash paychecks from the Los Angeles Kings. Phaneuf stated earlier this off-season that he would be happy to land with a contender, but is also open to taking on a mentor role with a young team. That would seemingly make him a candidate to join a number of D-needy teams. Yet, a week into free agency there has been almost no noise surrounding Phaneuf. The veteran still plays a strong checking game, but his offense and mobility fell off a cliff last season, resulting in drastic career lows in production and ice time. Teams may be hesitant to invest at his current asking price. Phaneuf may be looking at a decision between a short-term, minimum deal or walking away.
Ben Lovejoy, 35, is also coming off an uninspiring season. The Dallas Stars still felt he was worth a deadline gamble, but Lovejoy failed to make much of an impact offensively with either the Stars or Devils pre-trade. An experienced journeyman defenseman, Lovejoy still plays a strong defensive game and has great awareness in his own zone. However, when it comes to moving the puck he can be prone to turnovers and when asked to contribute offensively, he offers little. At this point in his career, Lovejoy is an ideal No. 7 or 8 defenseman. However, does he want to continue his playing career only to be used sparingly as a depth player? That’s the question.
Thomas Vanek, 35, is a tricky case. While his 36 points this season marked a career low, it also came in just 64 games and was one of the top marks for the Detroit Red Wings. Vanek has been a tough player to get a read on in recent years because he has moved around so much and played in a variety of roles. The eye test, combined with a plethora of rumors so far this summer, suggest that he can keep playing. But does a decorated veteran really want to continue being a hired gun and deadline deal year after year? If Vanek can find some security in a short-term contract, he will stick around in the NHL and likely continue to be a great value as a player capable of 50 points. However, the respected veteran may also be ready to call it a career if the right fit doesn’t exist.
Niklas Kronwall, 38, and Deryk Engelland, 37, are both in the same boat. They will either return to their current teams – the Red Wings and Golden Knights respectively – or they’ll retire. Neither is looking to move at this point in their careers, nor can they command salaries that their teams cannot pay. Instead, the duo are both valued for their leadership and loyalty and can still play well enough in a regular role or, more likely, thrive in a depth role. The question for both is simply how much they have left in the tank and whether it’s time to quit while they’re ahead.
So what do you think? Nine players, all with good reason to retire but also to keep playing, with various market factors at work. How many suit up in the NHL next season and how many make a final announcement in the coming weeks?
Tyler Wong Signs In KHL
The Chicago Wolves won’t be bringing back Tyler Wong for another season, as the former WHL superstar has signed a two-year deal with Kunlun Red Star in the KHL. Wong had played the last two seasons under an AHL in the Vegas Golden Knights system, but will take his talents overseas.
Wong, 23, scored 198 points over his final two years of junior hockey for the Lethbridge Hurricanes, but was never drafted and failed to earn an NHL entry-level contract. One of the standouts of the first Golden Knights’ training camp, he actually scored a hat trick in the franchise’s first ever preseason game. Unfortunately, that offensive prowess never translated to the professional level where Wong has scored just 21 points in 125 AHL games.
Undersized, Wong may actually be better suited for the KHL where he can continue to develop and try to earn another contract one day in North America. His brother, Austin Wong, was selected by the Winnipeg Jets 215th overall in 2018 and will play for Harvard this season.
Vegas Golden Knights Considering Nikita Gusev Trade
It was a huge acquisition when the Vegas Golden Knights convinced Russian superstar Nikita Gusev to come to North America and sign his entry-level contract last season, even if it did mean he would be a restricted free agent again without ever playing an NHL game. Gusev’s one year deal expired after the 2018-19 season regardless of whether the Golden Knights gave him any playing time down the stretch—which they did not—and now he’s in a contract negotiation with them as an RFA. Unfortunately, that negotiation does not seem to be going smoothly as Jesse Granger of The Athletic (subscription required) reports the gap in salary is still $2MM per season. Igor Eronko of Sport-Express explains on Twitter that Gusev is looking for a two-year, $8MM deal while the Golden Knights want to sign him for half of that total.
Vegas president George McPhee admitted that if they can’t work something out they will look at all the options, and noted that there is interest in him around the league. That’s not a surprise given Gusev’s incredible record in the KHL. The 26-year old forward scored 82 points last season in just 62 games for SKA St. Petersburg, his third consecutive season recording more than a point-per-game. Those kind of totals don’t happen often in that league, leading some to believe that he could have a similar impact as some other Russian imports over the years—Artemi Panarin, who just signed a seven-year, $81.5MM in free agency, is the most common comparison.
NHL success though is not guaranteed. For every success story from the KHL over the years there have been equal numbers of failures, including one that Vegas fans should be quite familiar with. Vadim Shipachyov, who has also been a better than point-per-game player in the KHL several times, failed to find any opportunity with the Golden Knights for one reason or another and ended up terminating his contract in order to return to Russia. Shipachyov recorded 68 points in 61 games for Dynamo Moscow last season in the KHL.
Gusev may be a dynamic offensive player in the NHL, but the Golden Knights simply can’t afford to pay him $4MM as their salary structure is currently constructed. The team already has had to dump good players this offseason to make room for what they already have, and adding another player like Gusev without knowing exactly what his impact will be could be risky. That said, there are plenty of other teams who would be able to take that risk and likely will be lining up to hear what it would cost to acquire him.
Vegas Signs Goulbourne, Lernout, Megna
After re-signing two depth players, Tomas Nosek and Brandon Pirri, as well as adding Patrick Brown, the cap-strapped Golden Knights continue to make minor additions where they can on the fringes of the roster. The team has announced that, in addition to Brown, three other new players are set to join the organization in forward Tyrell Goulbourne and defensemen Brett Lernout and Jaycob Megna. The trio each signed two-way deals worth $700K, with Goulbourne signing on for two years and the blue liners each at just one.
Vegas Golden Knights Re-Sign Pirri, Nosek
The Vegas Golden Knights have brought back a pair of forwards, re-signing Brandon Pirri to a two-year contract with an average annual value of $775K and Tomas Nosek to a one-year contract worth $1MM.
Pirri, 28, can’t seem to convince anyone to reward him with consistent playing time despite scoring at every level. In 31 games for the Golden Knights last season he recorded 12 goals, and has 72 in 259 games despite averaging fewer than 14 minutes a night for his career. The second-round pick can flat out score goals, and he’ll be a depth weapon for the Golden Knights to insert into the lineup whenever they have the opportunity. Unfortunately Pirri has never been trusted to play a complete game at both ends of the rink, and may never earn the kind of big contract that players with his goal scoring talent usually command.
Nosek, 26, took a much different path to the Golden Knights, signing as an undrafted free agent with the Detroit Red Wings and winning a Calder Cup in the AHL before being selected in the expansion draft. He registered 17 points in 68 games for Vegas last season playing in a fourth-line role, and will be back to likely fill the same this season. The 6’3″ winger doesn’t bring a ton of offensive skill, but can do enough little things right to receive regular playing time from head coach Gerard Gallant.
