Arbitration Breakdown: Brian Dumoulin
With the reports of a huge financial gap between the two parties, it seems quite likely that Brian Dumoulin will reach his arbitration date. Whether the team can hammer out a deal before needing to accept that decision remains to be seen. They are still far apart in terms of value according to Elliotte Friedman, as the team only offered $1.95 MM compared to his agent’s number of $4.35 MM. Dumoulin has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh for their two Stanley Cup runs, but he has a difficult quantitative case to make to earn the money he is seeking.
The Numbers
Dumoulin was huge in the absence of Kris Letang. When the Penguins’ top defender was again sidelined to injury, Dumoulin’s ice-time skyrocketed to first-pairing usage. He finished the season with an average ice time of 20:33, but often saw far more down the stretch. In the playoffs, he averaged 21:59. Those are the numbers of an upper echelon second-pairing defenseman, but when you consider that he almost never sees powerplay time, and the defensive situations he is trusted in, he’s a borderline top-pairing player.
Dumoulin isn’t an offensive force in any regard. He’s only tallied 33 points through his 163 regular season games played, and 3 of his 5 career goals come from post-season action. Still, he can move the puck with relative efficiency and can be relied on to tally a little under 20 assists a season.
Dumoulin faces tough quality-of-competition, and that will be his biggest argument for the compensation he is seeking. However, his Corsi and Fenwick, the most utilized advanced statistics, don’t show improvement for the player last year. When these stats are taken without context, Dumoulin’s 2016-17 playoffs was his worst outing to date. He had a brutal 41.2% Corsi For through 25 post-season contests, down from his 2015-16 run’s 52.8%. His regular season totals showed a less drastic ‘decline’, but the tougher minutes and far greater shots allowed team-wide brought his advanced statistics back down to merely average. He has shots blocked (99) and penalty killing prowess to turn to, but those are difficult figures to primarily base a case for a raise upon.
Potential Comparables
Here are some comparable players and their contracts.
Travis Hamonic (Calgary) – Although it may seem an odd comparison to some, the underlying numbers for these players aren’t dissimilar. Both have never broken 5 goals in a season and neither scores a particularly impressive amount of points. They are physical without being intimaditing and can skate well enough to survive in today’s NHL. They both block shots with consistency and contribute over 20 minutes of icetime a night. Hamonic signed his long-term deal worth $3.86 MM all the way back in 2013, which was a bit of an overpayment at the time in hopes of keeping the AAV down as he progressed. This seems a little under what most players with the skillset are looking for in 2017, but it’s an interesting parallel.
Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders) – Dumoulin’s contract will be a bit of a barometer for the Isles’ de Haan, as it will show the direction the arbiters are leaning on not-so-flashy defenders. As the only other RFA defenseman other than Vegas’ Nate Schmidt likely to earn more than $2 MM, de Haan and the Islanders will be watching the outcome of this case to determine who has greater leverage. De Haan still has great upside, but has played in a far more sheltered role on a deep defense.
Cody Ceci (Ottawa) – Ceci is not considered to be quite the asset that Dumoulin is, but seeing as his contract was awarded merely a year ago, this sort of bargain is what the Penguins are likely aiming toward. Ceci signed a two-year deal worth only $2.8 MM a season, after a 10 goal, 26 point season where he averaged nearly 19 minutes a night. Dumoulin has never seen that kind of production, but up until last season comparatively played against greater competition. Ceci is due for another arbitration hearing at the conclusion of the 2017-18 campaign, as his past contract was a sort of bridge deal.
Jacob Trouba (Winnipeg) – Again, another bargain for a defenseman that was handed out last season. Trouba’s negotiations dragged on into the regular season, before he finally accepted a two-year agreement, with the first year at $3.31 MM and the second year at $2.81 MM. Trouba is much more offensive than Dumoulin, but has generally seen more icetime and a similar difficulty of competition. Just like the Penguins, there was a large degree of disagreement in the financial value of the player between the organization and the agent. Dumoulin has championship pedigree to tout at his hearing, however, whereas Trouba was largely banking on his potential as a former first-rounder.
Projection
Dumoulin is an interesting case because he is undoubtedly an integral piece of the Pittsburgh blueline, but has little outside of truly advanced statistics to prove his case. How much will their championship runs inflate his value? How much is a stay-at-home defender worth, especially when his possession numbers have taken a hit?
Ultimately, if Dumoulin were a UFA rather than a RFA, he’d easily attract contract offers around $5 MM. As an RFA however, his predecessors haven’t seen a whole lot of success in proving their case. Shots blocked and plus minus are nice, but considering the trend of the league, they are not going to benefit his standing all that much. A lot of Dumoulin’s value is hard to quantify, and there’s the very real possibility that his bargaining position suffers as a result. Ultimately, his exposure in two long playoff runs will bring his value back to a fairer mark, and he will earn far more than the team’s ask of $1.9 MM. Somewhere in the range of $3 MM seems the likely award if the arbitration decision is actually needed. However, it’s unlikely that the parties don’t come to a longer-term agreement before that time. The Penguins need to lock him down as part of their defense, and a multi-year contract at around $4 MM is probable. GM Jim Rutherford will likely posture til the last conceivable minute, but his internal value is far too great to risk him walking in summer free agency in the next two years.
Derek Dorsett Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
- After missing the majority of this past season after undergoing cervical fusion surgery due to disc degeneration in his neck, Canucks winger Derek Dorsett is expected to be ready for training camp, notes Jason Botchford of the Vancouver Province. Dorsett has two years left on his contract with a $2.65MM cap hit and will likely battle for a fourth line spot with Vancouver.
Mike Zalewski Signs In Germany
- After the Vancouver Canucks decided not to issue a qualifying offer to Michael Zalewski this summer, the 24-year old has taken his talents to Europe and signed with the Straubing Tigers of the German DEL. Zalewski got into one game with the Canucks this year, but hasn’t been able to make an impact at the NHL level. The undrafted forward will play with his brother, former New Jersey Devils pick Steven Zalewski in Germany for the upcoming season.
Penguins’ 3rd-Line Center Options
With the loss of Nick Bonino to Nashville via free agency, the reigning champion Pittsburgh Penguins have a gaping hole down the middle. For the first time in over a decade, the center position is now one of relative weakness. It’s always a possibility that Matt Cullen decides to re-sign for one more year, but he will not be able to carry the load of a typical 3rd-line center. Cullen showed signs of slowing down toward the tail-end of the team’s playoff run, and he was only averaging 13:55 a game through the regular season. At 41 years old, he simply won’t be a viable long-term option. The Penguins likely have high hopes for Zach Aston-Reese to make a push in training camp, but he is an unknown quantity at the NHL level. GM Jim Rutherford had 5 potential trade options in the works prior to July 1st, according to the very reliable Josh Yohe of DKPittsburghSports. Talks either fizzled or were put on the back-burner, but one might imagine the number of available targets is far fewer now. With Dallas’ three-year signing of Radek Faksa, there is one fewer name left for consideration. Vegas seems to be content with merely flipping defensemen from here on in, although names such as Cody Eakin and William Karlsson shouldn’t be thrown out entirely. Erik Haula is likely a pipe-dream, but he’s another possible target. Matt Duchene was linked for a time, but between the high cost and the stubbornness of Colorado GM Joe Sakic to make a move, he seems incredibly unlikely.
Who are the safest bets for an off-season move? Or will Pittsburgh enter the season with someone unproven slotting behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin?
Bozak has made tons of sense since his name was first mentioned. A lot has been made of his relationship with Phil Kessel. When they played on a line together in Toronto, Kessel saw some of his best career production. More than that however – the Leafs are in a bit of cap pinch as they will look to free up dollars for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in the next two seasons. They certainly aren’t in any hurry to drop underneath the ceiling due to LTIR intricacies, but moving out Bozak’s $4.2 MM for this next season would be a forward looking move. If he’s due a raise, it’s likely they’ll lose him for far less, as his contract expires at the end of 2017-18. The move makes sense for Pittsburgh because of the Kessel relationship, but also because he fits the mold of the Pittsburgh squad. He’s a solid skater, sees the ice well, and hustles back into his own zone. His playmaking abilities would be a wonderful fit on the cheap to aid the high-powered offense, and the player would be a positive possession asset to remove the stress from the bigger guns. Bozak does have a modified no-trade clause, but it’s hard to see Pittsburgh being included on his list of non-tradeable teams.
Staal saw a lot of success in Pittsburgh before he was traded away to Carolina at the 2012 draft. Jordan was traded to that team in particular due to his desire to player with his older brother Eric Staal. Seeing as Eric is no longer in the picture, it would make sense that Staal might be open to a Pittsburgh reunion. Staal is one of the better defensive centers in the league, and has been forced to take a more uncomfortably offensive role in Carolina. Staal’s biggest downside is that he isn’t the most agile skater, but he’s not any slower than Nick Bonino was. That said, he can play the shutdown role and be a total nuisance for top opponents. Rutherford loves the player, as he was the GM of Carolina when they initially acquired the player, for a hefty sum of Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin, and a 1st-round pick (which became Derrick Pouilot). According to Yohe, Staal is apparently open to a return, and the nostalgic element of the team’s fanbase is clamoring for this to happen. Rutherford stated on a local radio segment with Ron Cook that “to his knowledge he (Staal) isn’t available”, but he’s played coy with the media in the past.
Out Of Left-Field
Rutherford has been known to throw the hockey world for a loop with some of his trades. The James Neal–Patric Hornqvist trade shocked just about everyone, and the Phil Kessel trade is still being discussed to this day. If there’s one thing we should expect from him, it’s the unexpected. There are a few lesser options out there for Rutherford to explore, and management may want to have the Conor Sheary and Brian Dumoulin contracts put to paper before making any sort of transaction. It seems unlikely that anything will happen until those deals get done. Rutherford told Jason Mackey of the Post-Gazette that there are “hundreds of names on (his list)”, and that it’s “a patient process”. Could Detroit be willing to move Andreas Athanasiou? Could Bryan Little be pried from Winnipeg for a young defenseman? It’s hard to speculate as to where exactly management have set their sights, but Rutherford is generally willing to overpay to “get his man”. There is the slight likelihood that they enter the season with that hole left unfilled, but it’s hard to imagine. Until more dominoes fall, Rutherford is likely to bide his team and search for the correct deal.
Canucks Sign Jaime Sifers To AHL Deal
- Unrestricted free agent defenseman Jaime Sifers, who was most recently under contract with Columbus, has signed a two-year minor league deal with Utica (affiliate of the Canucks), the AHL team announced. Sifers spent the last three years with the AHL affiliates for the Jackets and collected 20 points (6-14-20) in 74 regular season games. He also has 37 games of NHL experience under his belt between Toronto and Minnesota.
Penguins Don’t Anticipate Trading Phil Kessel
While the departure of former Pittsburgh assistant coach Rick Tocchet to Arizona as their new bench boss has fueled some speculation that the Penguins could trade Phil Kessel, GM Jim Rutherford poured some cold water on that theory. Speaking with 93.7 The Fan on Wednesday (transcription via Jonathan Bombulie of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review), Rutherford made it clear that they don’t anticipate moving him as things currently stand:
“He’s an important part. I don’t want to sit here and say that a certain player’s not going to get traded at some point in his career. I mean, Phil already did. But that’s not something that I foresee happening right now.”
Tocchet was known to have a strong relationship with Kessel, whose streaky tendencies have irked head coach Mike Sullivan at times. However, despite that, the 29-year-old remains one of the higher scoring wingers in the NHL so there is plenty of incentive to hold on to him, particularly since the Maple Leafs are already paying 15% of his contract.
It’s at least worth noting that Kessel’s goal production has taken a tumble in recent years even if it hasn’t come at the expense of his point totals. In 2013-14, he had a career-best 37 goals but has only surpassed the 25 goal mark once since then; his 23 tallies this past season was his lowest in a full campaign since his sophomore year back in 2007-08. However, he’s also not the focal point of Pittsburgh’s attack like he was in Toronto either. Put it all together and it’s hard to come up with a compelling case for them to move Kessel at this time.
Still with the Penguins, in that same interview, Rutherford briefly discussed Carolina center Jordan Staal, noting that to his knowledge, he’s not available in a trade. Pittsburgh is still on the lookout for a third line center and they’re certainly familiar with Staal, who they drafted second overall in 2006. However, with a $6MM cap hit, he’d be rather pricey for someone who would be earmarked for a bottom six role.
Vancouver Canucks Avoid Arbitration With Michael Chaput
- Though their hearing wasn’t scheduled for another week, the Vancouver Canucks have come to terms with Michael Chaput according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. The two sides decided on a figure of $687,500 which is barely more than the league minimum this season. The 25-year old Chaput played 68 games for Vancouver last season, registering just eight points.
Canucks Re-Sign Evan McEneny
- The Canucks announced the re-signing of defenseman Evan McEneny to a two-year, two-way contract. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. McEneny made his NHL debut with Vancouver this past season but primarily suited up with their AHL affiliate in Utica where he scored eight goals and 15 assists in 63 games.
Vancouver Canucks Announce ECHL Affiliate For 2017-18
- The Vancouver Canucks will have a new ECHL affiliate this season, inking a one-year deal with the Kalamazoo Wings. The Canucks had been affiliated with them before, though the last two seasons the K-Wings have been tied to the Columbus Blue Jackets and Tampa Bay Lightning. They’ll house some distant prospects for the Canucks next season, and try to get back to the playoffs for the fifth straight season.
Snapshots: Sieloff, Archibald, Buchberger
The Ottawa Senators have announced an extension for defenseman Patrick Sieloff. The two sides have agreed to a one-year, two-way deal worth $650K at the NHL level. Sieloff, 23, has just one NHL game under his belt, back with the Calgary Flames in 2015-16, but the stay-at-home defender posted a career-high 12 points last year with the AHL’s Binghamton Senators this past season. A second-round pick in 2012 and the sole return for the Senators from the Alex Chiasson trade, it makes sense that Ottawa would like to retain the valuable Sieloff, even if he is developing slowly. However, there are sure to be many Sens fans upset at the extension news. Sieloff is best known in Ottawa as the player who boarded Clarke MacArthur, just returning from missing most of the 2015-16 season with a concussion, during a Senators’ preseason scrimmage, causing yet another concussion which kept him out most of 2016-17 as well. It was not the best start to Sieloff’s Senators tenure, but clearly not enough for the organization to turn on him.
- The AHL’s Utica Comets, the minor league affiliate of the Vancouver Canucks, announced that they have re-signed forward Darren Archibald to a one-year deal. Archibald, a big, physical right wing, also found his scoring touch last season, setting the Comets’ franchise goal-scoring record with 23 goals. Although Archibald was only in the NHL for 16 games, a brief stint with the Canucks during the 2013-14 season, he’s made a name for himself with their affiliate. Archibald is second in team history, albeit for a young Comets franchise, in games played, goals, and points and first in penalty minutes. Another strong season on both offense and defense could earn Archibald another NHL look.
- The New York Islanders made official the hiring of Kelly Buchberger as an assistant coach today, a move that has been in the works since before the end of the 2016-17 season. Buchberger, like Archibald, was a big, physical right wing with a knack for scoring goals, only Buchberger did it in the NHL for 17 years. He has also served as an assistant coach and vice president of player development for the Edmonton Oilers in recent years, the city he played in for the bulk of his career. A two-time Stanley Cup winner and a former NHL captain, Buchberger bring experience and leadership to Doug Weight‘s young coaching staff.