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Vezina Finalists Announced; Is The Evaluation Process Flawed?

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The NHL has announced the three finalists for the Vezina Award, given each year to the league’s best goaltender, as voted on by the league’s general managers. Vying for the trophy at the NHL Awards in Las Vegas this June will be the Winnipeg Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck, the Nashville Predators’ Pekka Rinne, and the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Andrei Vasilevskiy. This is the first nomination for Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy, while Rinne has previously been up for the award three times.

At first glance, the three nominees are not surprising. All three have had great seasons and are clearly among the top goaltenders in the league. However, hockey analytics guru Rob Vollman makes a pretty good case for why the evaluation process my be flawed. As Vollman points out, the only category in which the trio were tops in the league is wins, a statistic based entirely off of team performance, not individual performance. Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy led the league with 44 wins, while Rinne was right behind with 42.  Yet, only Rinne was top three in the league among goalies with 41+ starts in save percentage, quality starts percentage, and goals saved above average, Vollman’s stats of choice. By those standards of evaluation, Vasilevskiy should have been nowhere near Vezina contention. Instead, Vollman’s poster boy for proper evaluation is the Anaheim Ducks’ John Gibson, who was a top-four finisher in each of those three categories and a top-ten finisher in wins. Also garnering some more attentions should have been the Vegas Golden Knights’ Marc-Andre Fleury and the Arizona Coyotes’ Antti Raanta, both of whom were excellent statistically, but lacked the number of starts and wins that are apparently requisite for Vezina contention in today’s NHL.

It’s no surprise that the three contenders for best goaltender are who they are. However, that doesn’t mean it’s correct, especially in a season so many other obvious choices. General managers surely do not evaluate goalies based on wins alone when evaluating them for acquisition, so why does a clearly-flawed statistic hold so much weight in the Vezina race? It’s a question worth asking and Vollman’s reaction, as well as others’, may change the voting results come next season. In the meantime, look for Rinne to finally take home the hardware this year in his fourth try, a result that was likely even with proper evaluation.

Snapshots: Panik, Kaspick, Islanders

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Arizona Coyotes forward Richard Panik was arrested for trespassing on April 8th, reports ABC15 in Arizona. Panik reportedly refused to leave the entrance of a nightclub called Bevvy in Scottsdale, and was booked for criminal trespass. He was later released with a criminal citation.

Panik, acquired by the Coyotes during the season from the Chicago Blackhawks, is under contract for one more season at $2.8MM. He seemed to fit in well with the Coyotes system, recording 19 points in 35 games. The 27-year old’s future in Arizona will likely not be affected by the incident, though it is something to keep an eye on.

  • Tanner Kaspick has been assigned to the Manitoba Moose for the remainder of the season, allowing the St. Louis Blues prospect to keep playing despite his CHL team’s recent elimination. The Blues don’t have a primary AHL affiliate this season, meaning Kaspick had to be loaned to the Moose and will be under the purview of their coaching staff. The Moose are headed into the playoffs as one of the better teams in the AHL, but could use another talented player like Kaspick. The former Brandon Wheat Kings captain had 64 points in 60 games split between two teams this season.
  • According to a report from Chris Botta of SportsNet New York, the New York Islanders are looking to add a “top executive” to the hockey operations department that could work as a general manager under current President Garth Snow. While Botta lists Julian BriseBois (Tampa Bay Lightning), Paul Fenton (Nashville Predators) and Tom Fitzgerald (New Jersey Devils) as possible candidates, Andrew Gross of Newsday reports that they have not yet contacted the Devils to speak with the latter.

AHL Calder Cup Playoff Matchups

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Yesterday, the AHL season came to a close and 16 teams advanced to the Calder Cup Playoffs. Though it’s not exactly like a Stanley Cup pursuit, the AHL playoffs are a battleground created specifically to test the mettle of young players, while providing a chance for glory to veterans who may not get another opportunity in the NHL.

Below are the eight matchups, with some interesting storylines to watch in each one:

All times CST

Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Philadelphia) vs Providence Bruins (Boston)

Game 1 – Fri. Apr 20, 2018 – 7:05PM | LV @ PRO
Game 2 – Sat. Apr 21, 2018 – 7:05PM | LV @ PRO
Game 3 – Fri. Apr 27, 2018 – 7:05PM | PRO @ LV
Game 4 – Sat. Apr 28, 2018 – 7:05PM | PRO @ LV
Game 5 – Mon. Apr 30, 2018 – 7:05PM | PRO @ LV

While the Flyers and Bruins do battle in their respective NHL playoff series, their AHL affiliates will take each other on in the first round. Phil Varone, fresh off winning league MVP, will try to lead the Phantoms all the way to the Calder Cup finals. He’ll have to go through the previous MVP to do it, as Kenny Agostino heads a diverse Bruins attack.

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (Pittsburgh) vs Charlotte Checkers (Carolina)

Game 1 – Fri. Apr 20, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  WBS  @  CHA
Game 2 – Sat. Apr 21, 2018 – 5:00PM  |  WBS  @  CHA
Game 3 – Thu. Apr 26, 2018 – 6:05PM  |  CHA  @  WBS
Game 4 – Sat. Apr 28, 2018 – 6:05PM  |  CHA  @  WBS
Game 5 – Sun. Apr 29, 2018 – 2:05PM  |  CHA  @  WBS

Daniel Sprong was the top scorer for the WBS Penguins this season, recording 65 points in 65 games. That kind of production is excellent from anyone, but Sprong is in just his first full season of professional hockey and looks poised to make the jump to the NHL before long. Charlotte has their own talented offensive piece though in Lucas Wallmark, who had 55 points in just 45 AHL contests between NHL call-ups.

Toronto Marlies (Toronto) vs Utica Comets (Vancouver)

Game 1 – Sat. Apr 21, 2018 – 3:00PM  |  UTI  @  TOR
Game 2 – Sun. Apr 22, 2018 – 3:00PM  |  UTI  @  TOR
Game 3 – Wed. Apr 25, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  TOR  @  UTI
Game 4 – Fri. Apr 27, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  TOR  @  UTI
Game 5 – Sun. Apr 29, 2018 – 3:00PM  |  UTI  @  TOR

Toronto had the best goaltending in the league en route to a historically dominant season, but if there was a team that could match them in net it would be Utica. Thatcher Demko put up a .922 save percentage as the absolute MVP of a relatively average Comets team, and could end up stealing a series if the Marlies aren’t careful.

Syracuse Crunch (Tampa Bay) vs Rochester Americans (Buffalo)

Game 1 – Fri. Apr 20, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  RCH  @  SYR
Game 2 – Sat. Apr 21, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  RCH  @  SYR
Game 3 – Wed. Apr 25, 2018 – 6:05PM  |  SYR  @  RCH
Game 4 – Fri. Apr 27, 2018 – 6:05PM  |  SYR  @  RCH
Game 5 – Sat. Apr 28, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  RCH  @  SYR

Though the Buffalo Sabres didn’t have much fun this season, but their affiliate is headed back to the playoffs for the first time in four years. If the Sabres want to build a different culture for their organization and expose their young players to the idea of winning, having Rochester go deep in the playoffs is the first start. They’ll have to topple one of the league’s best teams to do it, as Syracuse is still loaded with future NHL talent.

Chicago Wolves (Vegas) vs Rockford IceHogs (Chicago)

Game 1 – Sat. Apr 21, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  RFD  @  CHI
Game 2 – Sun. Apr 22, 2018 – 3:00PM  |  CHI  @  RFD
Game 3 – Thu. Apr 26, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  RFD  @  CHI
Game 4 – Sun. Apr 29, 2018 – 3:00PM  |  CHI  @  RFD
Game 5 – Mon. Apr 30, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  RFD  @  CHI

You could call this this All-Chicago series, as Blackhawks prospects will take on the Wolves in a series that spans only about 75 miles. Though technically the Vegas Golden Knights’ affiliate, the Wolves still house several players from the St. Louis Blues including Beau Bennett, who put up 57 points in 60 games this year.

Grand Rapids Griffins (Detroit) vs Manitoba Moose (Winnipeg)

Game 1 – Sat. Apr 21, 2018 – 1:00PM  |  GR  @  MB
Game 2 – Sun. Apr 22, 2018 – 1:00PM  |  GR  @  MB
Game 3 – Wed. Apr 25, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  MB  @  GR
Game 4 – Thu. Apr 26, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  MB  @  GR
Game 5 – Mon. Apr 30, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  MB  @  GR

If you think the Winnipeg Jets are good, just wait until the next wave of talent comes up from Manitoba. Sami Niku was named the league’s top defenseman, while Mason Appleton earned Rookie of the Year honors. Both will be on full display when they take on the reigning Calder Cup Champion Griffins.

Tucson Roadrunners (Arizona) vs San Jose Barracuda (San Jose)

Game 1 – Thu. Apr 19, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  TUC  @  SJ
Game 2 – Sat. Apr 21, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  TUC  @  SJ
Game 3 – Wed. Apr 25, 2018 – 6:05PM  |  SJ  @  TUC
Game 4 – Fri. Apr 27, 2018 – 6:05PM  |  SJ  @  TUC
Game 5 – Sat. Apr 28, 2018 – 6:05PM  |  SJ  @  TUC

Like the Americans, the Roadrunners will try to make up for their NHL parent team’s failures this season. The Coyotes minor league team got a huge boost when Dylan Strome was returned, perhaps for the last time in his professional career. Strome is expected to make the jump to the NHL next season, and could put a stamp on what has been a solid year with a long playoff run.

Texas Stars (Dallas) vs Ontario Reign (Los Angeles) 

Game 1 – Thu. Apr 19, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  ONT  @  TEX
Game 2 – Fri. Apr 20, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  ONT  @  TEX
Game 3 – Sun. Apr 22, 2018 – 2:00PM  |  TEX  @  ONT
Game 4 – Tue. Apr 24, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  TEX  @  ONT
Game 5 – Mon. Apr 30, 2018 – 6:00PM  |  ONT  @  TEX

If the Los Angeles Kings bow out quickly enough we could see the Reign get a boost for their playoff chances, as Michael Amadio, Paul Ladue, Jonny Brodzinski and Oscar Fantenberg are all eligible for the AHL playoffs. The Kings could be eliminated as soon as tomorrow night, meaning the Reign could welcome back several key names for Game 1.

Western Notes: Coyotes Free Agency, Perron, Jarnkrok, Fowler

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With the team comfortable at both goaltending and defense, the Arizona Coyotes are expected to be add to their forward lines this offseason. Don’t be surprised if Arizona looks into the free agent market this summer and attempts to grab itself a top-six forward, according to AZCentral’s Richard Morin.

A team with ample cap space, Arizona has spent the last few years building through the draft and then this past season made multiple trades to upgrade its roster, acquiring the likes of Derek Stepan, Antti Raanta, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Richard Panik. The scribe writes the franchise, especially after an impressive second-half run, might look to dip its feet into the free agency market. While acquiring center John Tavares is not a likely scenario, the team might be able to snag an elite winger such as James van Riemsdyk, Patrick Maroon or Rick Nash. The team will have a couple of their own free agents they must sign, including veteran Brad Richardson, Zac Rinaldo, Kevin Connauton and Luke Schenn (as well as try to extend defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson), but the team should have the assets to upgrade their offense.

Morin does also admit that general manager John Chayka might also go back to the trade route as well, but at the same time, the team believes they will see an uptick in production from rookie Clayton Keller and now believe that prospect Dylan Strome is ready to handle full-time duties in the NHL.

Viktor Tikhonov Not Returning To NHL

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With an off-season upcoming in which it is expected that several high-profile KHL players, young and old, could be eyeing the NHL, former Phoenix Coyotes first-round pick Viktor Tikhonov will not be among them. Tikhonov’s KHL team, powerhouse SKA St. Petersburg, announced that they have resigned Tikhonov to a two-year contract extension (link in Russian). The next chance that the two-way forward will have to try his hand overseas yet again will be in 2020, when he will be on the wrong side of thirty.

Tikhonov, now 29, has been a reliable top-nine forward for SKA over the past two seasons since returning from his last stint in the KHL. With so many of his teammates linked to NHL teams, it is no surprise that St. Petersburg jumped at the opportunity to re-sign a player with three-zone ability. SKA’s leading scorer, Ilya Kovalchuk, is yet again flirting with an NHL comeback. Their next-best forward, Nikita Gusev, had his rights traded to the Vegas Golden Knights last year and has surely had conversations with the club as his time to make the jump is running out. Former Coyote and Pittsburgh Penguin Sergei Plotnikov is fresh off of a career year and could be eyeing a second chance overseas. Draft-eligible defenseman Danila Galenyuk is expected to go no later than the third round and could change his developmental path depending on where and to whom he is selected. Even the goaltenders are at risk; Mikko Koskinen is rumored to have a deal in place to return to the New York Islanders while young Igor Shestyorkin looks to be the heir apparent to Henrik Lundqvist for the New York Rangers and could begin the takeover process soon. So, while Tikhonov isn’t considered one the best players on SKA, it makes sense that the team would lock him up in short order as they did, with other high-end talent possibly on the way out.

However, Tikhonov being off the market also presumes that there would have been a market for him in North America this summer. Although Tikhonov came into the league with lofty expectations – the 28th overall pick in 2008 who jumped right into the Coyotes lineup, as well the grandson of a legendary Soviet coach – he cannot be described as anything but a bust in the NHL. The height of his career at the highest level came in his rookie season, when he put up 16 point in 61 games for then-Phoenix. Tikhonov finished the year and began the next in the AHL and soured on the North American experience, returning to Russia. He only made his return a few years ago, in 2015-16, and was completely ineffective, registering six points in 50 games between the Coyotes and Chicago Blackhawks. Even in the KHL, Tikhonov’s numbers have not skyrocketed like many of his compatriots returning home. Tikhonov is of course a highly-skilled and versatile player who was never at his best in the NHL, but it’s fair to be skeptical if anyone would have been interested in giving him a third try had he not re-signed. Now, with a multi-year extension in hand to stay in Russia, it is possible that we have seen the last of Tikhonov in the the world’s top hockey league.

Arizona Coyotes Sign Jordan Gross To Entry-Level Contract

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The Arizona Coyotes have signed undrafted free agent defenseman Jordan Gross to a two-year entry-level contract. Gross just completed his fourth season with the University of Notre Dame. Coyotes GM John Chayka released a statement in the announcement:

Jordan was one of the top defensemen in the NCAA last year and we’re thrilled to add him to our organization. He’s a mobile, puck-moving, right shot defenseman who is very smart. He will join a great group of young players that we now have in Arizona.

Gross, 22, was recently named to the All-Tournament team in the Frozen Four after Notre Dame made it to the National Championship game. The mobile defenseman racked up 30 points for the third consecutive season, finishing his collegiate career with a whopping 121 points in 159 games.

For Arizona, adding talent in ways other than the draft is key to turning the system around. Though they took strides towards the playoffs in the second half, they still need to add dynamic talents that will help them in the coming years. There’s no guarantee that Gross will be able to defend well enough to contribute in the NHL, but he’s certainly talented enough to take a chance on.

2018 NHL Draft Lottery Odds

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The regular season is over and for the first time in NHL history there are 15 teams on the outside of the playoff picture. For those squads and their fans, it’s a long wait for anything positive to come, with the 2018 NHL Entry Draft more than ten weeks away, scheduled for June 18th, and the start of free agency another two weeks after that. However, the odds for this year’s NHL Draft Lottery are now set and teams can at least look forward to the ping pong balls being drawn at the end of the month, on Saturday, April 28th. With the teams in the running now set, here are the odds for the #1 overall pick in this years draft:

31st – Buffalo Sabres: 18.5%

30th – Ottawa Senators: 13.5%

29th – Arizona Coyotes: 11.5%

28th – Montreal Canadiens: 9.5%

27th – Detroit Red Wings: 8.5%

26th – Vancouver Canucks: 7.5%

25th – Chicago Blackhawks: 6.5%

24th – New York Rangers: 6.0%

23rd – Edmonton Oilers: 5.0%

22nd – New York Islanders: 3.5%

21st – Carolina Hurricanes: 3.0%

20th – New York Islanders (from Calgary Flames): 2.5%

19th – Dallas Stars: 2.0%

18th – Philadelphia Flyers (from St. Louis Blues (top-ten option)): 1.5%

17th – Florida Panthers: 1.0%

If you are a fan of one of these teams, you can entertain yourself for the next few weeks with this Lottery Simulator from Tankathon.com.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson: “This Is Where I Want To Be”

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Like he’s said in the past, Oliver Ekman-Larsson reiterated his desire to stay with the Arizona Coyotes today during their season-ending press conference. Ekman-Larsson is heading into the final year of his current contract, and through the first half of this season many were speculating that he’d eventually be moved to help the Arizona rebuild. After a much better second half and recent contracts to stabilize the goaltending position, it now seems more likely than ever that he’ll stick around long into the future.

The Coyotes still finished 29th in the NHL, ahead of just the Ottawa Senators and Buffalo Sabres on the year. But even with that overall finish the future looks bright—or at least brighter—in Arizona. Clayton Keller scored 65 points in his rookie season and is a candidate for the Calder Trophy, Antti Raanta returned from injury to show that he can be a top-tier starting goaltender in the NHL, and top prospect Dylan Strome made an impact down the stretch.

While the defense corps is still not settled—partially due to another serious injury to Jakob Chychrun—re-signing Ekman-Larsson would be a strong first step. The 26-year old defenseman has played his whole career to date in Arizona, and has never wavered from his stance that he’d stay there well into the future. After a tough year in his personal life in 2016-17, the team even brought in his brother (Kevin Ekman-Larsson) and international defense partner Niklas Hjalmarsson to make him more comfortable.

The 2019 free agent class has some incredible names on it, but on July 1st many will start disappearing. That’s when teams can officially sign extensions with their players, and someone like Ekman-Larsson could be quick to ink a new deal. If he truly wants to stay put, there is no doubt that GM John Chayka and the Coyotes would offer him a deal. Whether it is enough money to convince him to forgo a look at the open market is still to be seen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Minor Transactions: 4/8/18

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With the Eastern Conference still undecided until today’s final regular season game, the Western Conference has no questions as the Colorado Avalanche finished off the St. Louis Blues in a 5-2 victory Saturday as they clinched the final playoff spot. The Nashville Predators got the top spot and will face the Avalanche. In other first-round matchups, the Vegas Golden Knights will face the Los Angeles Kings, the Anaheim Ducks will face the San Jose Sharks and the Minnesota Wild will face the Winnipeg Jets. 

Florida Panthers’ Radim Vrbata To Retire After Season

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The Florida Panthers honored veteran Radim Vrbata during tonight’s game and announced that tonight’s game against the Buffalo Sabres will be his final appearance in an NHL uniform. He is not expected to play tomorrow and will retire at the end of the season, confirms Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington.

The 36-year-old winger has only appeared in 41 games this season and hasn’t played since March 8. He has just five goals and 19 points this season, a far cry from a season ago, when he scored 20 goals and tallied 55 points with the Arizona Coyotes.

In his 17-year career, Vrbata has played for multiple teams, including the Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, Phoenix/Arizona Coyotes, Tampa Bay Lightning, Vancouver Canucks and the Panthers. He has played in 1,056 games, putting up 284 goals and 339 assists for 623 points and had two 30-goal seasons.

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