FanRag’s Carolyn Wilke outlines a few questions Chicago may have as they catch their breath following a head-spinning offseason. One such question Wilke revolves around general manager Stan Bowman who vowed changes following the Hawks’ four game sweep at the hands of the Nashville Predators. She points out that Bowman has been made to be the architect of the modern day dynasty, but trading away first round picks may be burning the Hawks. To be fair, Bowman’s deal with Arizona in 2015 to acquire Antoine Vermette netted a Stanley Cup–while yielding a first round pick.
But the past two exits, Wilke writes, may cast some doubt on Bowman’s abilities should they get bounced early again. The depth pieces he’s drafted or signed have not provided the help they need to sustain contender status. While Bowman has done a masterful job of keeping the team together, it’s often overlooked that a lot of the heavy lifting, and drafting was done by his predecessor, Dale Tallon, who was unceremoniously dumped in 2009. Worse, it’s well known that Bowman, and not Tallon, might have been more responsible for the qualifying offer deadline fiasco that ultimately cost Tallon his job.
To be sure, Tallon made his fair share of mistakes that didn’t help his case. But Bowman, who has offered some questionable contracts that have gummed up the cap situation, is facing what is most likely his most telling season since taking over as GM. From a purely numerical standpoint, it doesn’t look promising.
The Athletic’s Sean Tierney uses quantitative analysis to measure how Bowman did in his trades this offseason. Though they got younger and cheaper, Tierney uses Goals Above Replacement to illustrate just how much talent and production Chicago lost in the trade. When measuring the current roster versus its previous one, Tierney finds that there’s a steep drop off in production. Though Brandon Saad rises to the top of the GAR list,
The more startling metrics, using a model created by Dom Galamini. reveal that the Hawks playoff probability pre-trade (sans Marian Hossa) was 49% Following Bowman’s moves, it dips to 37%.
Is this to say the Blackhawks are doomed? Hardly.
But what it does show is just how difficult it is to win in the National Hockey League. Bowman has done a good enough job with the cap, and yet, like every other general manager, has struggled with a few deals that have come back to haunt him. The Brent Seabrook deal immediately comes to mind.
His tightrope act following the 2010 Stanley Cup championship allowed the Hawks to keep key parts, and astutely pick new talent to fill it. Saad was one of those pieces, selected in the 2011 draft.
So is the window really closing? Numbers can’t certainly predict everything, especially since the metrics used to predict playoff probability didn’t include some players that may see time. Phenom Alex DeBrincat falls into that category, especially if his goal scoring prowess from juniors carries over to the pros. He may not score buckets of goals, but consistent contribution is what the Hawks need for the future, especially as the core ages.
Last year’s team was tops in the Western Conference, winning 50 games and potting 109 points. It’s hardly time to write their epitaph.
But there certainly are signs that their dominance won’t be what it once was.
