Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
St. Louis Blues
Current Cap Hit: $84,550,315 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
Jordan Kyrou (one year, $758K)
Robert Thomas (one year, $894K)
Potential Bonuses
Thomas: $425K
Despite not always seeing minutes in the top six, Thomas has quickly established himself as a reliable secondary scorer and had a shot at a 50-point year last season had it not been for the pandemic. Assuming he’s able to produce at a similar level in 2020-21, he should have enough of a track record to make a long-term deal at least possible. Having said that, their cap situation may force them into a bridge pact, one that will cost at least three times as much as his current contract. Kyrou has yet to establish himself as a regular and while he should have the opportunity to do so this season, a one-year deal close to his $874K qualifying offer may make the most sense for both sides unless he has a breakout year.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Ivan Barbashev ($1.475MM, RFA)
G Jordan Binnington ($4.4MM, UFA)
F Tyler Bozak ($5MM, UFA)
F Jacob de la Rose ($700K, RFA)
D Vince Dunn ($1.875MM, RFA)
D Carl Gunnarsson ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Zach Sanford ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Jaden Schwartz ($5.35MM, UFA)
F Alex Steen ($5.75MM, UFA)
Schwartz is one of the more intriguing potential unrestricted free agents in the class of 2021. He has put up at least 55 points in five of the last seven seasons and one of the two he didn’t was an injury-shortened 2015-16 where he missed 42 games. But the other was just two years ago where he struggled mightily which may still be fresh in the minds of general managers. In a normal free agent market, the 28-year-old would be a safe bet for a contract of anywhere from five-to-seven years with an AAV somewhere in the $6.5MM range. But we saw the UFA market really hit wingers hard back in October and with the financial environment likely to be the same this summer, we could be looking at a similar trend. On the other hand, that could work well for the Blues in their efforts to re-sign him.
Steen’s playing days have come to an end but he won’t collect his salary if he retires so instead, he’ll be heading for LTIR with the team eventually using that money to formally sign Mike Hoffman next week. Bozak is someone who had been in trade speculation for most of the offseason given his contract and declining role but he remains and will likely once again serve as the number three center. He’ll be 35 on this next deal so a 50% pay cut seems probable given his drop in offensive production but his ability at the faceoff dot should help his market. Sanford has emerged as a capable third liner which should allow him to get a decent raise despite the market for bottom-six forwards taking a hit lately and Barbashev is in a similar situation although he may start on the fourth line. As for de la Rose, he’s a capable filler but they’ll need to keep that roster spot for someone at the league minimum whether it’s him or someone else down the road.
Dunn just recently signed his deal and did relatively well given that he’s coming off of his quietest offensive season yet and didn’t have a whole lot of leverage. With the expiring contracts coming off the books up front, it wouldn’t be surprising if he is one of the first players that the Blues try to lock up, perhaps as soon as March 12th (this year’s equivalent of the usual January 1st threshold for players on one-year deals being eligible for extensions). With him being arbitration-eligible now, his price tag should double at the very least. Gunnarsson is a bit expensive for the reserve defender that he now is. That’s a spot they’ll be looking to spend about half of that spot on for next year and that’s about what his ceiling will be on his next deal.
Binnington is another particularly interesting pending UFA. His track record isn’t the longest at just two NHL seasons, one that was elite and one that was decent. Because of the lack of experience, how he fares in this shortened campaign where he’s in a situation where it shouldn’t be a platoon will really go a long way in determining if he adds a couple million to his price tag or it stays close to where it currently is.
Two Years Remaining
F Sammy Blais ($1.5MM, RFA)
D Robert Bortuzzo ($1.375MM, UFA)
F Kyle Clifford ($1MM, UFA)
G Ville Husso ($750K, UFA)
F Mackenzie MacEachern ($900K, UFA)
D Colton Parayko ($5.5MM, UFA)
F David Perron ($4MM, UFA)
Perron has been quite the bargain since rejoining the Blues and has provided above-average production inside their top six for a price that typically is below market value (this past offseason being the exception). Even with the market being what it is, if he hovers around a 50-point pace the next two years, he should still be able to get a deal around this price tag. Blais’ contract felt a little high at the time and the deflated market for physical forwards only cemented that. St. Louis feels that he has some offensive upside but he’ll need to put up more than a handful of goals if he wants to be qualified at $1.6MM in 2022. Clifford came over in free agency, taking a fairly significant dip in pay along the way while MacEachern landed a small raise. Both are on market value deals for 12th and 13th forwards.
Parayko is the most notable player out of this group. The departure of Alex Pietrangelo should pave the way to step into an even bigger role that could approach the 25-minute mark. An uptick in offense has been expected for a while but if that doesn’t come, his pay bump could be limited a bit as a result. But if he can establish himself as a 40-point player or more and become that high-end all-around blueliner, he could command something around the $8.8MM that Pietrangelo received from Vegas. Bortuzzo is a capable sixth defender although the contract may be a small overpayment given some of the recent deals that have been signed. This is a spot that’s likely to be filled by a prospect when the deal is up.
Husso has long been billed as a goalie of the future for the Blues and was ahead of Binnington on the depth chart not that long ago. However, he’s 25 and has yet to make his NHL debut. He’s going to have an opportunity to at least show that he’s an NHL-caliber goaltender over these next two years but unless Binnington falters or is injured, Husso shouldn’t be in a spot to really cash in on the open market at the price point that other top backups have received in the $3.5MM range.
Three Years Remaining
F Ryan O’Reilly ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Vladimir Tarasenko ($7.5MM, UFA)
O’Reilly, the new captain, has fit in quite well since joining the Blues. He’s never going to contend for a scoring title but he’s quite strong in his own end and remains one of the top faceoff players in the league, especially among top-liners. He’ll be 33 when this deal is up and while that might hurt his market, it’s quite possible that his next contract comes in at a similar amount. Tarasenko didn’t hide his feelings about wanting the captaincy but his recurring shoulder troubles certainly didn’t help his candidacy (nor does it help his odds of a similar-priced deal three years from now). He will miss a good chunk of the season which makes him LTIR-eligible although if they believe he’ll be back at some point (which seems to be the indication), they’ll only be able to fill his absence internally. Sundqvist stepped into a bigger role in 2018-19 which earned him this contract but he still primarily is in the bottom six which makes this contract one that’s above market value.
Snapshots: Savoie, Perron, Ritchie
The Dubuque Fighting Saints of the USHL made big news today, announcing that Matthew Savoie has decided to leave the AJHL and will join the team shortly. Savoie, 17, is one of the top prospects for the 2022 NHL Entry Draft, even though he was denied exceptional status by the WHL in 2019. Selected first overall in the WHL bantam draft that year, he played 22 games with the Winnipeg Ice in 2019-20 when he became eligible and had suited up four times for the Sherwood Park Crusaders of the AJHL this season.
Blazing speed and elite hockey sense are Savoie’s calling cards and they likely will get him selected in the first few picks come 2022. For now, he just needs to get back on the ice and continue his development as he prepares for a career in professional hockey. Meanwhile, his brother Carter Savoie, a fourth-round pick of the Edmonton Oilers in 2020, is lighting it up as a freshman at the University of Denver, scoring 13 points in his first 12 games and earning NCHC Rookie of the Month honors.
- David Perron was available to the media today after the St. Louis Blues hit the ice for the second time and explained to reporters including Lou Korac of NHL.com that he underwent surgery for a sports hernia in the offseason. The 32-year-old forward had one of the best seasons of his career last year for the Blues, scoring 25 goals and registering 60 points in just 71 games. In the early part of training camp, he’s been lining up beside Ryan O’Reilly and Brayden Schenn on the top line, with no expectation he’ll be anything other than full strength when the season begins.
- Though it hasn’t been announced by the team, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet writes that Brett Ritchie “is the mystery PTO possibility” for the Calgary Flames. Ritchie, 27, played in 27 games for the Boston Bruins last season, eventually clearing waivers to go to the minor leagues. He was not given a qualifying offer by the Bruins, meaning he’s an unrestricted free agent looking for work just like so many other fringe NHL players.
Vince Dunn Signs With St. Louis Blues
The wait is over, Vince Dunn will be at training camp with the St. Louis Blues. The young defenseman has signed a one-year, $1.875MM contract today, pushing off any long-term negotiations for another season. Dunn, 24, will still be a restricted free agent at the end of the deal.
In terms of cost versus production, this is certainly a win for the Blues, who will get one more season of excess value from their young defender. Dunn has turned into quite the offensive dynamo for the team even in limited minutes, racking up 82 points over his three seasons despite averaging just 17 minutes a night. Some of that production has been from the second powerplay unit, a role he seems likely to stay in even after the departure of Alex Pietrangelo. Torey Krug, the newcomer who scored a long-term deal with the Blues, is one of the league’s top powerplay quarterbacks and is headed for the first unit.
Still, even as a second unit QB and depth option at even-strength, Dunn has proven his worth. His possession numbers are excellent, he has improved his own-end defensive ability and he’s even physical enough to fit into head coach Craig Berube‘s style. There’s no doubt that a more expensive deal is coming for Dunn if his play continues, but for now, he’ll slide in behind Krug, Justin Faulk, Colton Parayko, and Marco Scandella in terms of defensive cap hits.
The deal takes St. Louis just about $3MM over the salary cap ceiling according to CapFriendly, with a Mike Hoffman contract worth somewhere between $3.5MM and $4.5MM still to come. The team does have some flexibility, however, with Alex Steen and perhaps Vladimir Tarasenko both due to hit long-term injured reserve status.
Dunn was the final RFA for the Blues to sign as they prepare for the season, though it has certainly been a very busy offseason. They have a new captain in Ryan O’Reilly, a new defensive leader in Parayko, and a new backup goaltender in Ville Husso, who will have a lot of eyes on him early. The Blues traded away Jake Allen to clear cap room but now are awfully thin at an important position. Should Jordan Binnington falter or deal with injury, the organization has almost no NHL experience behind him. Husso has not played a game at that level, while Jon Gillies, the presumptive third option, has 12 career games, last seeing the NHL in 2017-18.
Minor Transactions: 12/29/20
Training camp is just a few days away and things are heating up in the hockey world. With waivers open and rosters being announced, minor transactions will come fast and furious all across the league. We’ll keep track of them right here.
- Jordan Schmaltz will be attending training camp on a professional tryout with the Arizona Coyotes according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. Schmaltz, 27, last played in the NHL during the 2018-19 season, suiting up for 20 games with the St. Louis Blues. The 25th overall pick in 2012, he was never able to really translate his game to the NHL level.
- Speaking of the Blues, the team has announced that Alexei Toropchenko and Nikita Alexandrov have both been loaned overseas. Toropchenko will stay with Kunlun Red Star in the KHL where he has been playing, scoring eight points in 25 games so far this season. Alexandrov will head to KooKoo in Finland, where he will spend the season at the Liiga level. The Blues’ release notes that both players could be recalled when their European seasons end.
- Spencer Abbott, who played two games at the NHL level before heading overseas, will continue his playing career in Germany during the upcoming season. The 32-year-old winger has signed in the DEL after spending the last two seasons playing in the SHL.
- Tampa Bay Lightning prospect Gabriel Fortier has been traded in the QMJHL. The slick forward, in his final season of junior eligibility, has been moved by the Moncton Wildcats to the Shawinigan Cataractes, the team announced. The return is only a conditional pick, as Fortier could join the Lightning or more likely a minor league affiliate this season, in which case Shawinigan would get their pick back. If Tampa opts to return him to juniors though, then the Wildcats would receive at least a 2022 third-round pick but it could grow as high as a 2021 first-rounder depending on production. Fortier is no stranger to change after initially being acquired by Moncton midway through last season, only to finish the year with better than a point-per-game pace, earning the team’s captaincy to begin this year.
- Defenseman Ty Murchison of the U.S. National Team Development Program has made his college choice. The young blue liner announced his commitment to Arizona State University today, continuing the program’s pipeline from California. The former L.A. Jr. King is a talented two-way defenseman who plays an aggressive style, currently leading the USNTDP U-18’s in penalty minutes. Murchison is expected to be a middle round pick in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft before beginning his NCAA career next year.
Latest On Vince Dunn
The St. Louis Blues have some gymnastics to pull off at the start of the regular season, moving players to long-term injured reserve and finalizing contract details with Mike Hoffman, who agreed to a professional tryout for the time being. They also have another contract to finish, this time with restricted free agent Vince Dunn who remains unsigned currently.
On the Dunn front, progress is being made according to Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest, who tweets that the negotiation will get done in time for training camp. Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports something similar, tweeting that Dunn’s agent told him that the defenseman would be in training camp when it opened.
Technically Dunn too could sign a tryout agreement to get into camp with the Blues if they need to wait out the cap complexities, but it’s great news for St. Louis fans that were worried about their young RFA. The 24-year-old has turned into quite the player over the last few seasons, recording at least 23 points in each of his three years in the NHL despite averaging just over 17 minutes a night.
That number could increase with Alex Pietrangelo gone, though newcomer Torey Krug figures to take over the PP1 duties for the Blues. Ten of Dunn’s points (including four of his nine goals) came with the man advantage last season.
Coming off his entry-level contract, Dunn was still not eligible for salary arbitration and doesn’t have a ton of leverage if he wants to play this year.
Blues Sign Mike Hoffman To PTO Agreement
Dec 28: According to Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic, Hoffman is believed to have a one-year contract in place worth between $3.5MM and $4.5MM. The two sides are waiting to make it official to help maximize their salary cap flexibility.
Dec 27: Mike Hoffman is certainly taking a different route to securing a contract for the upcoming season. The Blues announced that they have signed the winger to a PTO agreement with an invitation to training camp. Back when free agency opened up, this certainly wasn’t the expected outcome for the player ranked fourth on our Top 50 UFA list.
The 31-year-old is coming off of another productive season that saw him put up 29 goals and 30 assists in 69 games with the Panthers. It was the fifth time in the last six seasons that he had at least 27 goals and he’s tied for 16th in goals scored by any player over the past six seasons. Hoffman is particularly adept when it comes to power play production and has scored 28 times with the man advantage over the past two years, tied for the fifth-most in the league.
So how has it come to this? The UFA market wasn’t kind to wingers seeking long-term, big-money agreements; Taylor Hall had to settle for a one-year, $8MM deal with Buffalo while Tyler Toffoli opted for a multi-year agreement but had to take a pay cut to do so with Montreal. Hoffman indicated a willingness to do like Hall and sign for one year but the higher-priced offers never really materialized.
Having said that, this isn’t a typical PTO agreement. The Blues will have some salary cap flexibility with Alex Steen (out for the year) and Vladimir Tarasenko (out for several more months) heading for LTIR but for St. Louis to best utilize the cap space that those placements will provide, they will want to wait to move them there until the start of the season. Hoffman will presumably sign a one-year agreement once the season starts for a much higher price tag than a deal that’s close to the league minimum as players who earn deals off of PTOs typically get.
St. Louis still has to re-sign RFA defenseman Vince Dunn but the approach for him could very well be the same, to wait for the LTIR placements to be made official and then sign the contract into that space.
It has been an interesting free agent market for Hoffman but it appears he will eventually get his one-year deal with St. Louis being the team to give it to him. He’ll just have to wait a few more weeks for it to happen.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
2020 Year In Review: February
2020 has certainly been a unique year away from the rink. However, it’s also a year that has featured several big trades and free agent signings, coaching changes, and much more. Over the coming days, PHR will take a look back at the top stories from around the game on a month-by-month basis. We continue with a look back at February.
Byfuglien Situation Explained: The Winnipeg Jets spent a good chunk of their season in confusion at the sudden announcement during training camp that star defenseman Dustin Byfuglien was taking a leave of absence with little to no explanation. That decision prompted the team to suspend Byfuglien, then he countered with a grievance through the NHLPA. The blueliner also underwent ankle surgery shortly after the season began. However, after months of waiting, the team got some clarification regarding Byfuglien as it was reported that Byfuglien has not even skated as of Feb. 1 and he wasn’t expected to return at all during the season. Suddenly two days later, it was reported that the Jets and Byfuglien were discussing a mutual contract termination. That led to trade rumors with the Jets trying to move Byfuglien at the trade deadline. Of course the saga continued for several more months, but February was the first month where it became quite clear that the Jets not only weren’t getting Byfuglien back any time soon, but the two parties’ were headed for a divorce.
Major Injuries: As February rolled on, injuries became a major notation in the season as many teams lost key players for significant times and many for the season (had the playoffs not been delayed until August due to COVID-19). The Sharks were the first to announce that Tomas Hertl was out for the season, a big blow for the struggling Sharks. Next, Chicago’s Brent Seabrook underwent his third surgery, followed by Seth Jones, who was expected to be out indefinitely, a major loss for the defensive Blue Jackets. Of course, the suspension of play did allow Jones to return for the playoffs. The injuries continued to pile up, including San Jose’s Erik Karlsson, Vancouver’s Brock Boeser, Toronto’s Andreas Johnsson, Winnipeg’s Brian Little and Montreal’s Shea Weber. Some were able to return for the playoffs, but those injuries crippled several teams.
Paul Maurice Extended: Despite the team’s struggles and even some light rumors that the Winnipeg Jets might consider a coaching change, the Winnipeg Jets instead signed head coach Paul Maurice to a three-year extension, who has been leading the squad since 2013. While Maurice hasn’t been able to get the Jets deep into the playoffs and the team has seen quite a few early-round exits over the years, the veteran coach has helped the Jets post impressive numbers over the years. Maurice had tallied a 264-186-53 record at the time of the extension and had kept Winnipeg above water last season despite the depletion of their defense.
Bouwmeester collapes: The St. Louis Blues suffered a shock when veteran defenseman Jay Bouwmeester suffered a cardiac event while sitting on the bench during a game against the Anaheim Ducks on Feb. 11. He collapsed behind the bench and trainers and physicians rushed to his aid and saved his life and was later taken the the hospital. He was doing “very well” the following day and underwent successful surgery two days after that. He was labeled out for the season and the playoffs two weeks later. His playing career looks to be over, but the 37-year-old is doing well.
Trade Deadline: The trade deadline came and went with dozens of trades that filled the transaction wires. While many significant names passed throughout the month, perhaps the most significant trades were made by the Tampa Bay Lightning (hint: the eventual Stanley Cup Champions). The Lightning traded for New Jersey Devils power forward Blake Coleman, giving up prospect Nolan Foote and Vancouver’s 2020 first-round pick. A week later, the Lightning were at it again, acquiring another physical forward, Barclay Goodrow, in exchange for their own 2020 first-rounder. While Tampa Bay was the obvious winner, many significant names changed hands, including Robin Lehner, Nick Cousins and Alec Martinez (to Vegas); Tyler Toffoli (to Vancouver); Ondrej Kase and Nick Ritchie (to Boston); Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Andy Greene (to New York Islanders); Tyler Ennis, Andreas Athanasiou and Mike Green (to Edmonton); Brendan Dillon and Ilya Kovalchuk (to Washington) amongst many other significant deals.
Alexei Toropchenko Will Remain In The KHL, Won't Attend Blues Training Camp
- While many prospects will be returning to North America from their international loans if they haven’t already, that won’t be the case for Blues prospect Alexei Toropchenko. Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the forward will remain on loan to Kunlun of the KHL instead of participating in training camp with St. Louis. The 21-year-old spent all of last season in the minors and has six goals and two assists in 24 games so far this season. Thomas adds that the team is still deciding on whether or not to bring in Nikita Alexandrov for camp or allow him to stay back home in Germany to keep training.
St. Louis Blues Name Ryan O’Reilly Captain
The St. Louis Blues not only lost a Norris-level defenseman but also lost their captain when Alex Pietrangelo decided to sign with the Vegas Golden Knights in free agency. Today, one of those things has been restored, with the Blues’ announcement that Ryan O’Reilly will serve as captain moving forward. O’Reilly will be the 23rd captain in franchise history and is joined by Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Colton Parayko, who will serve as alternates. Blues head coach Craig Berube explained just why O’Reilly was the choice:
Ryan’s work ethic on and off the ice and his commitment day in and day out is second to none. He leads by example with how hard he works during practices and our games and he relays the right message from our coaching staff to our entire team.
O’Reilly, 29, has actually only been in St. Louis for two seasons but is already a franchise icon. The team’s second Conn Smythe winner, he led the Blues to the Stanley Cup in 2019 with a playoff-leading 23 points in 26 games. That followed a 77-point season, a career-high of O’Reilly, but it’s really not even his offense that is so important to the team. The 2019 Selke Trophy winner is one of the very best defensive forwards in the entire world, shutting down the middle of the ice while always among the league leaders in faceoff wins. He has received votes for the Selke in each of the last ten seasons, starting when he was just a 19-year-old for the Colorado Avalanche.
Not only does O’Reilly drive offense and shut down opponents, but he also almost never takes a penalty, recording just 106 PIM over his 804-game career, 46 of those coming in his first three seasons. He won the Lady Byng trophy in 2014 when he took just a single minor penalty, a feat he repeated in 2017-18. Though that lack of penalties isn’t a flashy stat, it’s more important than you might think given that O’Reilly is so important on the penalty kill. When it’s never him serving, he’s always available to take crucial defensive-zone draws for the Blues.
All of that makes O’Reilly one of the best players on the Blues, but his leadership off the ice and camaraderie with teammates also likely made this an easy choice for the coaching staff. With three years left on his contract, St. Louis has found their leader for at least the next few seasons.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Alex Steen Announces Retirement
The St. Louis Blues will not have Alex Steen on the ice for them this season, announcing today that the veteran forward has been forced to retire due to a back injury. The release indicates that he has “multiple levels of degenerative herniated discs of his lumbar spine.” Though he is retiring, Steen’s contract won’t actually be coming off the books entirely.
Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic confirms that he will be treated as an injured player for this, the last season of his contract, meaning he will earn his full $3.5MM salary and the Blues will still have to deal with his $5.75MM cap hit. That cap hit can be moved to long-term injured reserve for cap relief, though it is still a more complicated process than the complete relief that actual retirement would bring.
Steen, 36, started his NHL journey back in 2002 when he was selected 24th overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs, though he wouldn’t actually make it to North America until 2005. When he did, he was already a polished professional from his years in the Swedish Elite League and stepped into the Maple Leafs lineup immediately. With 18 goals and 45 points in his rookie season, there were high hopes that he could be a superstar in Toronto. After a few more solid, if unspectacular seasons, the Maple Leafs made one of their patented (at the time) moves to secure a more veteran talent, trading Steen and fellow first-round pick Carlo Colaiacovo to the Blues for Lee Stempniak.
His Maple Leaf career in the rearview, Steen started the real meat of his hockey journey with St. Louis, a team that he would play 12 seasons and more than 850 games for. Seven different times he earned votes for the Selke Trophy as one of the league’s best defensive forwards, while also reaching new career highs in goals (33) and points (64). His career finishes with 622 points in 1,018 games, and at long last, he got to lift the Stanley Cup in 2019.
Steen isn’t a hall of fame candidate, but he will go down as half of one of the best father-son duos to play in the NHL. His father, Thomas Steen, played 950 games with the Winnipeg Jets and tallied 817 points of his own while also earning Selke votes for that focus on defense. When Alex Steen scored his 600th point during the 2018-19 season, they became just the fourth father-son duo to each record at least that number, behind Gordie Howe/Mark Howe, Bobby Hull/Brett Hull, and Peter Stastny/Paul Stastny. Quite the great company to be in.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images