Snapshots: Keith Gretzky, Quebec Expansion, Couture

In an article appearing on Today’s Slapshot – a division of The FanRag Sports Network – Craig Morgan, who also covers Arizona for AZSports.com, discusses several topics that relate in some way to the Coyotes. Interestingly, Morgan writes about Keith Gretzky, who was recently hired as an assistant GM in Edmonton and who was the director of amateur scouting for the Coyotes from 2007 – 2011 and oversaw the team’s drafts during that time. Gretzky was hired by the Oilers in part due to his scouting experience and success running the drafts for Arizona and more recently Boston. But Morgan says Gretzky’s successes at the draft may be overstated.

Despite success in the first round, where the Coyotes selected the likes of Kyle Turris, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mikkel Boedker and Connor Murphy, the team has struggled to find NHL talent in the lower rounds. According to Morgan, new Coyotes GM John Chayka has said a team’s ability to draft is measured in the later rounds. Clubs need to be able to identify and develop prospects outside of the draft’s first round in order to sustain on-ice success.

During his tenure with the Coyotes, the team selected 29 players in rounds two through seven, according to the article. Of that group, only four have made it to the NHL and just two are still in the Coyotes organization.

Teams typically need to draft and develop two or three NHL contributors every year in order to keep the pipeline of affordable young talent flowing. Even if your first-round pick pans out, clubs need at least one more of their selections to hit for the draft to be considered fruitful. If you aren’t hitting on your draft choices then it’s likely the team will have to go the free agent route to flesh out its roster and consequently put themselves in a salary cap bind. Teams like the Coyotes simply can’t afford to do that.

Now Morgan does go on to say Gretzky’s track record with Arizona does not necessarily have anything to do with the job he did in Boston. Nor is it an indicator of how he’ll perform as the assistant GM in Edmonton.

For more from Morgan and elsewhere in the NHL:

  • Even though they were not awarded an expansion franchise for 2017-18, the group behind the Quebec bid is not giving up on bringing an NHL franchise to Quebec City. Quebec likely will eventually get a franchise, though it may not be via expansion. I believe the league wants to also place a team in Seattle and that would probably be through expansion. Quebec would then be in a position to take in a club looking to relocate. Most of the teams that have been recently linked to relocation currently reside in the East. In order to gain balance between the two conferences, expanding from 15 – 16 clubs in the West is the simplest solution, while keeping Quebec as a fallback in the event of relocation.
  • In a piece for The Players Tribune, San Jose forward Logan Couture lists the six defensive players he considers the toughest to match-up against. Not surprisingly, all of his choices reside with him in the Western Conference, including one who also suits up for the Sharks. It’s hard to argue with any of his choices and it’s easy to understand the apparent western bias since he sees the guys in his own conference at least two times more often during the regular season, to say nothing of the playoffs. Brent Burns and Duncan Keith are elite players who impact the game in all three zones. Roman Josi is rapidly developing into one of the top blue liners in the NHL. Mark Giordano – Couture has a funny story about the Flames standout – might be a late-bloomer but he is undoubtedly a quality player. Finally, Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Toews may well be the best two-way pivots in the game today.

A Few Of 2015’s Best Free Agent Signings

While we might have ideas about which of this summer’s free agent signings were reasonable and which will eventually look like overpays, nothing is absolutely certain until those players finally take the ice for the 2016-17 season. A year later we can begin to determine which of last year’s free agent signings have worked out best.

It’s important to realize free agency, in practice, typically rewards players for past performances and not for what the player is likely going to contribute during the term of their new contract. Under the current CBA, most players do not reach unrestricted free agency until their late 20’s, after eight NHL seasons. Even players who make their NHL debuts immediately after being drafted are already 26 or 27 before accruing eight seasons in the league. At that age, most players are near the tail end of their prime or already beginning to enter the decline phase of their career. But with every team in the league usually willing to spend in free agency, bidding wars often break out and drive up the prices for those players available on the open market.

While every team looks for bargains in free agency, the reality is they are content to actually get their money’s worth as opposed to paying too much for too little. The following list comprises some – not all – of the best free agent deals signed last summer; the bargains as well as the deals where teams realized full value for their investments in year one. Granted, this is only after one year so some of the players on this list in the midst of multiyear contracts might not look so good down the road.

  • Paul Martin – San Jose (four years, $4.85MM AAV) – Martin might have been considered among the riskiest signings last summer. Already 34-years-old, it didn’t seem prudent giving the veteran blue liner a four-year deal. But Martin was everything the Sharks hoped for and needed in 2015-16. He may have only tallied 20 points in 78 games but he finished 3rd on the Sharks averaging 20:44 in ice time per game and was a steadying influence in San Jose’s top-four. His $4.85MM cap charge ranks 47th in the NHL among defensemen suggesting he’s being paid as a top-pair defender but with 79 blue liners set to account for $4MM annually against the cap, Martin’s charge isn’t out of line. This deal might not look so rosy as Martin ages but at least for season one its among the best signed in the summer of 2015.
  • Lee Stempniak – New Jersey (one year, $850K) – Stempniak is widely considered the steal of free agency last year. He went to camp with the Devils earning a job and a one-year deal worth just $850K. For their investment, New Jersey got 41 points in 63 games and subsequently flipped the veteran forward to Boston at the trade deadline for second (2017) and fourth-round (2016) picks. Yes, he benefited from receiving top-line minutes in New Jersey which may have partially inflated his offensive numbers, but he still did rank in the top-100 in Pts/60 averaging 1.76 at five-on-five. Stempniak was able to parlay his quality performance into a two-year deal with Carolina with a $2.5MM AAV.
  • Justin Williams – Washingtom (two years, $3.25MM AAV) – Williams, a three-time Stanley Cup winner, was imported in large part due to his track record as a proven and clutch playoff performer. Even though the Capitals bowed out in the second-round of the postseason, Williams still showed a penchant for coming up big when it mattered most. In games five and six of their second-round playoff series and with Washington on the verge of being oustered, Williams tallied two goals and three points. He wasn’t too shabby in the regular season either. Not only did he bring his usually stellar possession game – 53.1 CF% – but he also netted 22 goals and 52 points in 82 games. That’s excellent production for the 160th ranked salary cap hit among forwards.
  • Matt Cullen  – Pittsburgh (one year, $800K) – Cullen went the same route as Stempniak, going unsigned through the summer and eventually accepting a PTO with Pittsburgh. After making the roster out of camp, Cullen signed an $800K deal and rewarded the Penguins with terrific production in the team’s bottom-six. Cullen averaged 1.65 Pts/60 at even-strength, finishing with 16 goals and 32 points. Cullen played a key role in the Penguins Cup championship run, averaging the eight-most ice time among forwards and tallying four goals.

Feel free to chime in on the comments section if you feel we’ve omitted someone from this list. It wasn’t intended to necessarily be a full, comprehensive list but we wanted to point out some of 2015’s best signings.

Questions On Four Players On Expiring Contracts

It’s just under eleven months until the 2017 free agent period, but the concerns about players on expiring deals should already be starting. Many bigger names sign quickly once they’re eligible to, a year in advance. This year, we’ve already seen Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman and Stars forward Jamie Benn signed to long-term extensions.

Those are contending teams extending superstars who are obviously in their prime. Not every good player on an expiring contract is such an obvious case. Here are four players whose contracts will expire after this season, and what their teams might think about them.

  • Brad Marchand – Marchand is a great player, who scores goals, agitates, and plays well defensively. Coming off a 37 goal season, he’s in line for a pretty big contract. Still, he’ll be 29 when his contract expires next July, and the Bruins are going to have to reckon with where they are as a franchise. They have plenty of cap room, but should they miss the playoffs for a third straight year, it might be time to rebuild. Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron, and Tuukka Rask aren’t getting any younger. It’s not that Marchand is old, or has to be moved. The question is whether to give the kind of term that will likely be demanded from a player who will be well into his thirties at the end of a rebuilding effort.
  • Ben Bishop – Bishop has been the subject of trade speculation all summer. The Lightning are serious contenders, winning five playoff rounds in two years, and aren’t looking to give away key players off their roster. The dilemma is about his salary, and the expectations around backup Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Lightning will probably give Vasilevskiy every opportunity to win the job, and if he does, trade Bishop at the deadline. Should Vasilevskiy be unable to demand the starting job, Tampa Bay could be forced to try to re-sign Bishop at the last minute.
  • Brent Burns – Burns has probably the fewest question marks of anyone on this list. The Sharks have managed to keep bringing back other stars, like Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, despite their age, and continue to contend. Burns can play on the wing or defense, scores at a ridiculous rate, and was arguably their best player during their Stanley Cup run this year. The question comes down to price tag, and how much Burns wants to stay in San Jose. Given his teammates, their success, and the California weather, if they can make room, Burns should be in San Jose for a long time.
  • Kevin Shattenkirk – Another subject of trade discussion all summer, it’s looking less likely he’ll be a Blue this time next year. It’s just rare for a team to shop a player of his caliber if the team thinks they can keep him. Still, the Blues are really good, and it’s hard to see him being moved for prospects or draft picks. If Shattenkirk is traded before his contract expires, St. Louis will want back a scoring forward. There’s been speculation about Rick Nash and Taylor Hall, but the latter has already been dealt. Of all the players here, Shattenkirk looks most likely to hit free agency in 2017.

Salary Cap Report: Pacific Division

As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. Some teams are not finished building their rosters, with RFAs still to sign and trades to explore. Some teams have plenty of space to maneuver with; other teams will need to get creative to stay under the cap.

We’ll continue our Salary Cap Reports by taking a look at the Pacific Division. Of note:

By the numbers:

Also in the Salary Cap Report series: Metropolitan Division and Atlantic Division.

Roster Crunch: Pacific Division

While the NHL season is still more than two months away, it seems as though most teams have finished their free agent shopping and are now focused internally on roster decisions they’ll have to make. We’ll take a look at some of the options teams will have this fall, starting with the Pacific Division.

Anaheim Ducks 2015-16 division winners Anaheim were discussed at length last weekend, with seemingly way too many bodies than roster spots on their blueline. With between seven and ten players who deserve to be in the NHL next season (depending on how you feel about youngsters Shea Theodore and Andy Welinski), the team is still expected to make a move to shore up their forward group.

Los Angeles Kings Like the Ducks, the Kings have quite a few options on their back-end after signing Tom Gilbert to a one-year contract.  With four spots locked up between Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez and Brayden McNabb, the last two will be some combination of Gilbert, veteran Rob Scuderi and Matt Greene. That’s to say nothing of NCAA transplant Paul LaDue who will figure into the Kings’ plans before long.

San Jose Sharks It’s said that depth down the middle is a key to success in the NHL, and the Sharks have that in spades.  It looks like they’ll go into next season with at least six forwards who are capable of playing center. Often last season the top line was made up of three of them, with Joe Thornton between Tomas Hertl and Joe Pavelski. If the team wants to move the young Hertl back to his natural position (as they did at points last season), they’ll have to find ice-time for him behind Thornton and Logan Couture.

Arizona Coyotes – The crunch has already started to affect Arizona, as the team bought out veteran Antoine Vermette recently to open up a spot for one of their young forwards. With Dylan Strome and Christian Dvorak both leaving junior after huge seasons, they’ll look to make the jump to the NHL this season. The Coyotes may ice one of the youngest lines in the league this year, if Strome ends up between Max Domi and Anthony Duclair like many have speculated. Another spot could open up if RFA Tobias Rieder ends up overseas next season, as has been rumored lately.

Calgary Flames – Will top pick Matthew Tkachuk break camp with the Flames, and where will he play? Many eyes will be focused on the second-generation NHLer this fall, as he tries to force his way onto the Flames roster. Otherwise, the Flames have some decisions to make on the blueline if Ladislav Smid declares himself healthy enough to start the season and Dennis Wideman remains on the roster. Jyrki Jokipakka hopes he did enough last season to deserve a spot, but if both veterans are around when October 12th roles around, he may find himself on the outside looking in.

Vancouver Canucks – The Canucks are one of the hardest teams to figure out in the league, as they seem caught somewhere between rebuilding and trying to contend. Outside of their top-four, it’ll be a battle for the defensemen in camp to lock up a spot.  Luca Sbisa has a contract that will probably guarantee him a spot, but his diminished play and injury history makes him a poor choice for the Canucks. If they decide to contend, icing him every night ahead of younger, more effective defensemen seems unwise.

Edmonton Oilers – It’s been long said that the Oilers don’t have any defensemen, and while it may still be figuratively true based on the overall skill, the team actually has too many bodies for their back end under contract. After trading for Adam Larsson, the team has eight defenders worthy of NHL time, including Jordan Oesterle who many believe proved his ability last season. One of them though, former captain Andrew Ference, may be on his own way out as he has stated more than once he’s heading to retirement if the Oilers’ buy him out.  They haven’t been able to yet because of Ference’s lingering injury, but the two sides should come to an agreement before camp.

Snapshots: Versteeg, Senators, Red Wings

Darren Dreger tweets that unrestricted free agent Kris Versteeg may be leaving the NHL for the Swiss League. Versteeg is rumored to be heading to Bern and it could happen sometime this weekend. PHR listed Versteeg at #25 out of the top 50 free agents.  Last season, Versteeg had 33 points (11-22) in 63 games with Carolina. While with Los Angeles after a late February trade, he had 5 points (4-1) in 14 games. In the playoffs, Versteeg registered 2 points (1-1) in five games.

In other news:

  • NHL.com featured the Ottawa Senators as a team to watch in the Eastern Conference. Arpon Basu writes that with new coach Guy Boucher in the fold, the Sens look to return to the playoffs after missing out last season. Boucher’s first order, Basu writes, is to improve a team that hemorrhaged goals. Despite a younger team, general manager Pierre Dorion feels the Sens are poised to take the next step. Dorion recently added Derick Brassard in a trade with New York and believes that the Senators are “going to surprise some people.”
  • MLive’s Brendan Savage writes about recently acquired forward Dylan Sadowy, and his ascent through the OHL. Sadowy was acquired by the Red Wings from the Sharks for a 2017 third round draft pick after the Sharks realized they were not going to come to terms with Sadowy. The young forward turned some heads in prospect camp when he notched a hat trick during a scrimmage. But it’s the impressive numbers he put up as a member of the Barrie Colts and Saginaw Spirit that caught the Wings attention. Between both teams last season, Sadowy recorded 70 points (45-25) in 64 games.  Despite the scoring prowess, Sadowy indicates that he wants to be a two-way player. While a number of forwards are in his way,  Savage writes that Sadowy still intends to do whatever it takes to make the Red Wings roster. Even though it would be a tall order with a number of forwards already penciled in, Sadowy will work hard to make his NHL dream a reality.

Free Agent Profile: Matt Carle

In June, partially as a response to the re-signing of captain Steven Stamkos, the Tampa Bay Lightning bought out the remaining two years of defenseman Matt Carle‘s six-year contract. Carle never found his footing in Tampa Bay, his possession numbers declined continuously, along with his ice time, and after putting up impressive seasons of 35, 41, and 38 points in his last three years with the Flyers, his 31 point year in 2013-14 is the only year with the Lightning where he finished with more than 22. This was all a particular disappointment, since Carle came with a hefty $5.5MM cap hit.

Carle made his name in San Jose as a puck moving defenseman, and was originally dealt to the Lightning in 2008, as part of the trade for Dan Boyle. This was a short-lived arrangement, as 12 games into his first term with the Lightning, he was traded to the Philadelphia Flyers for a package centered around forward Steve Downie.

Carle blossomed in Philadelphia, and was a consistent offensive presence for the Flyers, helping them reach the Stanley Cup finals in 2010, before losing to the Blackhawks. In that run, Carle scored 13 points in 23 games, playing primarily with future Hall of Fame defense partner Chris Pronger. He also appeared with teammates James van Riemsdyk, Ian Laperriere, and Scott Hartnell in the 2012 comedy This Is 40. By the time the movie was released, only Hartnell was still with the Flyers, in part because in July of 2012, Carle had signed his six year contract with the Lightning, worth a total of $33MM.

Potential Suitors

When it comes to players who’ve seen their careers hit the skids, it’s not uncommon for coaches and general managers who’ve worked with them before to look to give them a second chance. Former Flyers’ GM Paul Holmgren is still the team president, and may be willing to offer him a chance, and it’s possible to envision former Flyers’ coach Peter Laviolette pushing to get him to camp in Nashville, considering how much he’s relied on him before, though the Predators have a very deep defense core, so he may be difficult to fit in. Ottawa Senators’ coach Guy Boucher also has experience with Carle, though he was fired two months into said experience.

Then there are the San Jose Sharks, with GM Doug Wilson having drafted him in 2003. Granted, Wilson was only weeks onto the job in San Jose when he did so, and traded him fairly early into his career. After those teams, the list is fairly non-specific, open to anyone who could use cheap defensive depth. His salary and term won’t be restrictive.

Expected Contract

Carle’s age and recent history make him a gamble, and considering he lacks spectacular upside, at this point, that’s a gamble a lot of teams won’t be looking to make. Should he choose to continue his career, which just about every player wants to do as long as they can, and he isn’t old enough to assume he’d happily walk away, it will likely be by trying to stick through a training camp invitation. Should he make a team out of camp, he’ll probably cost in the range of $750k to $1MM, which is roughly what room a team has left to pay a depth defenseman at the end of camp.

 

Free Agent Profile: Jhonas Enroth

Jhonas Enroth represents the best of the remaining scraps of a once-deep free agent pool of goalies this off-season. But is there any market remaining for his talents? The once highly-touted Sabres prospect is now 28 years old, but is still capable of being a reliable contributor. Last season, Enroth posted a 2.17 goals against average and .922 save percentage in 16 appearances in relief of Jonathan Quick in Los Angeles. Both of those statistics, the lifeblood of goalie evaluation, put Enroth above the average set by the rest of his peers in free agency. Despite his efforts, Enroth still lacks a team while Anton Khudobin, Carter Hutton, Jonas Gustavsson, Al Montoya and others are happily signed.

At this point in the summer, and given the lack of open positions across the league, Enroth has to start to wonder whether he will have a job in North America when the NHL season kicks off in less than three months. It’s not unheard of for a known commodity, fully capable of playing at the NHL level, to head overseas simply because of a lack of opportunity or contract offers that pale in comparison to European possibilities. This is especially true for European players, such as the Swedish-born Enroth. However, for a talent such as Enroth’s to leave the NHL at this point in his career seems to be a waste and a missed opportunity for one of the thirty NHL squads.

While Enroth certainly did not live up to the lofty expectations set for him in Buffalo, the last few seasons have pointed towards a player that is peaking as a high-end backup in his prime years. After four years of struggling to be “the guy” in Buffalo, Enroth was finally given the reins as the starter with the Sabres to begin the 2014-15 season. Not long after, having made just 37 appearances, he was traded to the Dallas Stars. As the backup in Dallas, Enroth had a then career-high 2.38 GAA. While his numbers overall for the season were only mediocre, his performance in the low-pressure backup role after a change of scenery seemed to show promise. The Kings took a chance on him last summer, signing him to one-year, $1.25MM contract, and it paid off as Enroth was solid as the backup to one of the best in the game, and Los Angeles never had to worry about goal tending between Quick and the occassional Enroth appearance. However, the Kings decided not to move forward with Enroth as their backup, signing displaced former Penguin Jeff Zatkoff and acquiring prospect Jack Campbell, to go along with veteran Peter Budaj as backup options. This decision likely was a function of LA’s tight cap space and the salary demands of Enroth. So now the question becomes will someone take the same chance on Enroth as the Kings did, or will another good European goalie head back overseas?

Potential Suitors

The presence (or lack thereof) of suitors is the bigger issue at hand than the talent of Jhonas Enroth. As compared to the likes of Joni Ortio, Ben Scrivens, or Anders Lindback, Enroth is the clear choice as the best available unrestricted free agent goalie. So who might bite? The leading candidate is the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have already made a goalie splash this summer with the trade for Anaheim’s Frederik Andersen. However, they turned around traded Jonathan Bernier to the Ducks and now find themselves without a reliable backup. It has been rumored that the Leafs would prefer to make a trade for a top-end backup, and could also use the young Garrett Sparks as their primary backup as well, but they could also replace the departed former King, Bernier, with another former King, Enroth, and be no worse for wear.

The defending Western Conference champion San Jose Sharks could also be a destination. They traded for James Reimer at the deadline to spell their upstart number one, Martin Jones, but watched him head to Florida on July 1st. They have no internal options with ample NHL experience, and are still dealing with a starter that has only one full season as the go-to goalie under his belt. The Sharks watched Martin Jones play back up for the rival Kings first hand and went out and got him. They could do the same with Enroth.

Finally, never count out the Chicago Blackhawks. If there is a value signing to be made, the Blackhawks are always in the mix. They do have Scott Darling on a very affordable sub-$600K contract, but after a stellar rookie season, his number dipped last year and Chicago could upgrade with Enroth if the price is right. Teams can always come out of the woodwork to add a goalie as well, and Enroth may present value that can’t be passed up to the right team.

One goalie-needy team that can likely be counted out: the Buffalo Sabres. With just Robin Lehner and Anders Nilsson under contract, the Sabres aren’t swimming in goalie depth and talent, but it seems unlikely that the two sides would be looking into a reunion.

Expected Contract

Enroth was the last man in when we made our Top 50 Free Agents list and predictions, and his can still prove to be correct, as he we thought he would be a good fit for the Sharks at $1.4MM on a one-year deal. Given how close the Sharks were to winning the Stanley Cup last year, it seems unlikely that they would go into the season with their current goalie depth. However, when you’re this deep into the season, you have to wonder what could be holding up a contract between the two. San Jose may be taking their time to go through options or Enroth may be pricing himself out after a strong season. Either way, the two would be a good fit, as would Enroth in Toronto and a cheap, one-year deal seems likely. The NHL would benefit from keeping a good talent in goal like Enroth in North America, so it will continue to be a waiting game to see which team makes that happen.

Minor Transactions: 7/14/16

  • The Los Angeles Kings have signed 2016 fourth round pick Jacob Moverare to a three-year, entry-level deal. The cap hit is $691,667. Jon Rosen writes that the 17-year-old forward has a hockey IQ and awareness of a first round pick, but his skating pulls his stock down. He quotes Director of Amateur Scouting Mark Yannetti as saying he has one of the highest IQ’s in the 2016 draft. Moverare played on HV71’s U20 team, notching 21 points (5-16) in 41 games.
  • The Detroit Red Wings inked defenseman Filip Hronek to a three-year entry-level deal. The 2016 second round choice of the Wings played for HK Hradec Kralove in the Czech professional league, tallying 4  points (0-4)  in 40 games. For the Under 20 junior club, Hronek registered 16 points (4-12) in 13 games. He will most likely play with the Saginaw Spirit in the OHL.
  • The Sharks have re-signed forward Ryan Carpenter to a one-year deal. Carpenter spent 66 games with the San Jose Barracuda, registering 55 points (18-37). He played one game with the Sharks.
  • The Arizona Coyotes have re-upped their affiliation with ECHL club Rapid City for the 2016-17 season. According to the release, the Rush were founded in 2008 and captured the CHL Championship in 2009-10.
  • The Philadelphia Flyers have signed 2016 second-round pick Pascal Laberge to a three-year, entry-level contract. The deal will have a cap-hit of $842.5K each season, according to CapFriendly. Laberge played for the Victoriaville Tigers of the QMJHL last season, scoring 68 points in 56 games.  He’s expected to head back there for the 2016-17 season.
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