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Boston Bruins Sign Brandon Carlo

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The Boston Bruins have locked up their final unsigned restricted free agent, inking Brandon Carlo to a two-year deal. The contract carries an average annual value of $2.85MM and will keep Carlo a restricted free agent at its expiry. Like most of the other RFAs this summer, the young defenseman will earn more money on the final year of the deal. Carlo will take home $2.2MM in 2019-20 and $3.5MM in 2020-21.

Carlo, 22, was a little overshadowed by Charlie McAvoy this summer as the young duo became restricted free agents at the same time, but he nevertheless was an extremely important piece for GM Don Sweeney to get under contract before the season began. A second-round pick in 2015, Carlo has quickly established himself as a reliable full-time option for the Bruins and played in 230 games over the last three seasons. The 6’5″ defenseman averaged nearly 21 minutes a night last season and recorded ten points, serving as the second most important penalty killer on the team behind only captain Zdeno Chara.

Though they were forced to go the bridge route with both McAvoy and Carlo (and Danton Heinen, who was signed earlier in the offseason), the Bruins have found a way to bring all of their pieces back with cap space to spare for this season. The team currently projects to come in a little more than $1.1MM under the ceiling to begin the year with almost the same lineup that took them to the Stanley Cup Final.

To be sure, there will be raises for both young defensemen in the future if they continue to play how they have during the early parts of their careers. But getting them both for less than $8MM combined will only help the Bruins current competitive window stay wide open.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

More On Mitch Marner’s Negotiation

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Mitch Marner is back at the Toronto Maple Leafs training camp after signing a six-year deal worth more than $65MM last week. The young forward was one of the biggest stories of the offseason as his representatives and the team went back and forth on term and salary, threatening to miss time like his teammate William Nylander last year. This morning, Marner’s agent Darren Ferris told Sportsnet radio that two offer sheets were presented to his client during the offseason but that they never considered accepting them, instead wanting to get a deal done with the Maple Leafs. Marner himself confirmed it, explaining his decision to Kristen Shilton of TSN:

As soon as Darren mentioned [offer sheets], I told him right away I don’t want to explore that option. But I didn’t want to miss training camp…or any games this season, so that’s why I really forced the issue with Kyle [Dubas] to get something done and get me here.

While Marner may have immediately turned down the offer sheets, it does raise some questions about which teams tried them and how much they were willing to pay. Former NHL forward Matthew Barnaby believes they were from the Columbus Blue Jackets and Minnesota Wild, though Marner and Ferris obviously wouldn’t confirm. If they had been equivalent to the deal that Marner eventually got from the Maple Leafs, the teams would have had to give up the maximum RFA compensation of four first-round picks. That’s a tough price for any team to pay, and one that would have forced the Maple Leafs to at least consider the option.

Now though, Toronto can focus on their upcoming preseason schedule with the whole group signed and in training camp. Marner, Auston Matthews and John Tavares now make up three of the seven highest-paid forwards in the league and will need to prove they can have more than just regular season success. With players like Jake Muzzin and Tyson Barrie coming off the books or demanding raises next summer as unrestricted free agents, this season may be one of the team’s only shots with the current group.

RFA Profile: Mikko Rantanen

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Avalanche winger Mikko Rantanen is now the top remaining restricted free agent following the signings of quite a few players around the league over the past few days.  While it’s possible that those moves could get the ball rolling on a new deal for him, the likelier scenario at this point is that it doesn’t.  Here is a look at Rantanen’s situation.

The 22-year-old is coming off his second straight season with over 80 points, a feat that not many players have reached in recent years.  He also played quite well in the postseason where he led the team in scoring with 14 points in a dozen games.  As far as offensive production goes, there aren’t many real comparable players out there.

One element that Colorado may try to use against him in talks is how much offensive zone starts he had last season.  Their top line all saw heavy usage in the offensive end but none more than Rantanen.  His career OZ% rate is higher than quite a few of the players that could be considered as comparables.  There was a time where teammate Nathan MacKinnon’s $6.3MM AAV was set as the ideal ceiling for the whole team but let’s face it, that’s not going to happen.  He’s a player with two high-end seasons under his belt and is still viewed as having some upside.  He’s going to get a substantial contract that is well past MacKinnon’s.

Statistics

2018-19: 74 GP, 31-56-87, +13, 54 PIMS, 193 shots, 20:51 ATOI
Career: 230 GP, 80-129-209, -19, 112 PIMS, 513 shots, 18:53 ATOI

Comparables

Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) – His placement here is basically to establish the floor for this contract.  Like Rantanen, they’re both viewed as the second-best offensive threat on their respective teams and while Draisaitl played the premium position (he was mostly a center at the time), Rantanen outscored him by a fair margin in each of their two full NHL seasons.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 29-48-77, +7, 20 PIMS, 172 shots, 18:53 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 191 GP, 50-87-137, -12, 44 PIMS, 354 shots, 17:22 ATOI

Contract: Eight years, $68MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 11.33%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $73.87MM ($9.23MM AAV)

Jack Eichel (Buffalo) – This is a contract that Rantanen’s camp will undoubtedly point to as a benchmark deal.  Eichel hadn’t reached the 70-point mark in any of his ELC years, something that Rantanen easily surpassed twice.  Yes, Eichel plays the tougher position and has the better draft pedigree but there is a good case to be made that Rantanen deserves more than this contract.

Platform Year Stats: 67 GP, 25-39-64, -25, 32 PIMS, 246 shots, 20:09 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 209 GP, 73-104-177, -54, 76 PIMS, 743 shots, 19:41 ATOI

Contract: Eight years, $80MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.33%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $86.91MM ($10.86MM AAV)

Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay) – I’m focusing on his post-ELC deal, not his current one.  (Since Rantanen is coming off his entry-level pact, all of the comparable contracts are also post-ELC ones.)  He went with a shorter deal to get to UFA eligibility quicker.  Stamkos, a number one overall pick, also outscored Rantanen in each season (though Rantanen’s point per game pace was a little higher than Stamkos’ platform season).  While the RFA market has improved since 2011, this deal (in today’s dollars) should be considered the ceiling of a medium-term contract.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 45-46-91, +3, 74 PIMS, 272 shots, 20:12 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 243 GP, 119-113-232, -12, 151 PIMS, 750 shots, 18:36 ATOI

Contract: Five years, $37.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 11.66%
Current Equivalent: Five years, $47.51MM ($9.502MM AAV)

Mitch Marner (Toronto) – The obvious one is saved for last.  Many expected Marner’s deal to basically be a comparable as soon as it was signed and there’s little reason to think it won’t be.  Marner is a bit more of a playmaker than Rantanen and they play different styles but they’re both very productive wingers so the money is going to be pretty close one way or the other.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 26-68-94, +22, 22 PIMS, 233 shots, 19:49 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 241 GP, 67-157-224, +21, 81 PIMS, 603 shots, 17:41 ATOI

Contract: Six years, $65.358MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.37%

Projected Contract

GM Joe Sakic has made it known that his preference would be to get a long-term deal done.  However, the appetite probably won’t be there at the rate it would take to get a max-term contract in place.  The Avalanche have the salary cap space to make such a move but with some of their other players that will be needing new deals a couple years from now, a slightly lesser term will give them a bit more flexibility down the road.

With that in mind, a two or three-year bridge deal likely isn’t on the table as well.  Those can be justifiable when a team is in a cap crunch but that isn’t the case here.  Four years walks him to unrestricted free agency so that’s off the table as well.

As a result, five or six years could very well be the happy medium.  If it’s five years, it should check in slightly below the $9.502MM current year equivalent for Stamkos’ deal.  On a six-year pact and a second UFA year included, the AAV should jump a little past the $10MM mark.  There’s a valid argument to have him in Marner’s territory but Colorado’s cap situation compared to Toronto’s gives the Avalanche a bit more leverage than what the Maple Leafs had as they couldn’t let Marner’s case drag out into the season and make the first year AAV higher than they could afford even with LTIR.  That should be enough to keep Rantanen’s price tag a little lower in the end.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reactions To Mitch Marner Signing

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It’s been nearly 48 hours since the Toronto Maple Leafs signed winger Mitch Marner to a six-year, $65.36MM deal, giving the team three players who will take up $33.52MM in cap space for the next six years, a significant amount for just three players. Regardless, stories about Marner’s new deal has been flooding the internet since Marner’s signing on Friday. Here are some reactions from around the NHL:

  • It was expected that Marner’s signing would start a chain reaction of RFA signings with Brayden Point of the Tampa Bay Lightning likely to be the first domino to fall. However, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reported that both sides were far apart in negotiations with the most recent offer weighing in at three years and $5.7MM. Considering the cap situation surrounding the Lightning, working out a deal that makes both sides happy could be quite the challenge.
  • The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required) points out that the Marner signing will likely have little to no effect on the Point signing. While the market seems to have opened up for RFA’s like Marner, the Lightning have made it clear they are sticking to their organizational philosophy of signing their RFAs to bridge deals before eventually offering them long-term deals. That’s how they have done it with Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Andrei Vasilevskiy.
  • Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun writes that Kyle Dubas is finally done with signing all his big-name free agents over the last couple of years, but notes that it took a toll on the young GM, who admits that he made a few mistakes. Dubas admits he should have locked all three restricted free agents (Marner, Auston Matthews and William Nylander) at once last year rather than allowing the negotiations go down to the wire. “You learn about the process, of things you do differently for the next time,” Dubas said. “With William, I wish we’d have been on it earlier, with Auston’s case, we had the information and we were projecting headward to go with him. In the end, I’m happy we’re able to deliver all three and bring John in as well.”
  • The Toronto Sun’s Kevin McGran writes that Marner and the Maple Leafs have been miles apart for months, but it was Marner who blinked first this time. It had been made quite clear that Marner wanted two things out of the negotiations, which included remaining a Maple Leaf as well as he didn’t want to miss any games. However, after Marner budged, so did Toronto. “We had a sit-down on Thursday for quite a while,” said Dubas. “It was great for Mitch to tell me how he felt, and me to explain where we were at and what we were proposing and so on. About how he fit into the team, how the team was going to move forward and everything of that nature. It was a real positive in the process.”
  • The Athletic’s James Mirtle (subscription required) writes that the Maple Leafs signing of Marner puts even more pressure on Toronto’s young core. The core of Matthews, Marner and Nylander will have to now start winning and not just finally a first-round victory in the playoffs. The expectations are even higher with most fans now expecting a Stanley Cup win in the near future. Unfortunately with all the money thrown at those three (along with John Tavares), the Maple Leafs aren’t likely going to be able to bring in extra help at the trade deadline or the offseason and the team may lose more and more talent due to their long-term salary cap issues.
  • The Athletic’s Jonas Siegel (subscription required) writes that the Toronto Maple Leafs were in tough situation while trying to lock up all their young forwards, but now that everything is completed and signed, the team will not regret signing all of them to long-term deals. The team’s core is now set and now Dubas must be able to find the pieces to fill in over the next few years despite the fact that Toronto will be in salary cap trouble for many years to come.

Boston Bruins Sign Charlie McAvoy To Three-Year Deal

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With two of the major RFA defensemen already signed, many eyes are looking at Boston Bruins blueliner Charlie McAvoy. TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the deal is done with McAvoy signing a three-year deal with a $4.9MM AAV. That is actually slightly less than the deal that Columbus Blue Jackets’ Zach Werenski signed six days ago. He signed a three-year deal with a $5MM AAV.

However, McKenzie notes that McAvoy can make up the difference in three years as his third year salary and qualifying offer base will be $7.3MM, which is $300K more than the $7MM salary that Werenski is scheduled for in three years. The deal looks to be a steal for the Bruins who have inked a top-line defenseman for three more years at a reasonable price.

CapFriendly reports the breakdown of the contract as follows:

2019-20: $1.2MM base salary, $2.5MM signing bonus
2020-21: $2.7MM base salary, $1MM signing bonus
2021-22: $7.3MM base salary

In the end, two of the three big-name RFA defensemen signed bridge deals in McAvoy and Werenski, while Philadelphia was the only team to lock up a player long-term, as they inked Ivan Provorov to a six-year, $40.5MM contract.

McAvoy, the team’s 14th-overall pick in 2016, has shown impressive skills, especially on offense, but has struggled staying healthy in his two seasons. He only appeared in 54 games last season and played in just 63 in his rookie campaign. In 117 games over two seasons, McAvoy has tallied 14 goals and 60 points and if he can stay healthy, could be in line for a bigger output this season.

Regardless, Boston looks at McAvoy as the team’s future No. 1 defenseman and his offensive skill is evident when he’s on the ice, but with plenty of cap concerns, the Bruins might be better off with a short-term deal in hopes of having more cap room available at that time. That could easily happen, however. The team will have a number of contracts coming off their books in the next couple of years, including the $7.25MM they owe David Krejci for the next two years, the $6.88MM they owe a then 37-year-old Patrice Bergeron in three years as well as the $6MM they owe David Backes over the next two years.

The signing now leaves Boston with $3.2MM in projected cap space and the Bruins still need to find cap space to fit their other restricted free agent, Brandon Carlo, to a contract.

Latest On Brayden Point’s Negotiations

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Mitch Marner has been stealing all the headlines lately when it comes to restricted free agent contract negotiations, but there is another Atlantic Division forward that is still without a deal and perhaps even more important to his team’s hopes this season. Many people believed Brayden Point would be one of the first high-profile names to come off the board this summer given the record of the Tampa Bay Lightning in past negotiations. Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and many others have all signed long-term deals to stay in Tampa Bay, almost all at a perceived discount. Point however is still without a deal as training camp starts, and Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets that it is “not remotely close.”

Point,  23, has developed from third-round pick into one of the most valuable players in the NHL and is coming off a 41-goal, 92-point season last year. The undersized center is also one of the best defensive forwards in the league, earning Selke Trophy votes in both his sophomore and junior seasons in the league. That resume led many to believe that he may actually be young forward who should “set the market,” though Marner has grabbed significantly more headlines thus far.

The Lightning have worked hard this summer to clear enough cap room to sign Point, trading away J.T. Miller and Ryan Callahan’s contract while only adding bounce-back bargains like Kevin Shattenkirk and Patrick Maroon. The team has almost $8.5MM in cap space currently, but the real issues may come further down the line. With Andrei Vasilievskiy’s extension kicking in next season and all three of Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak hitting RFA status the Lightning will be in a very tight cap situation once again.

Tampa Bay has done bridge deals before for their top talent, but it’s unclear what exactly Point is looking for. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet wrote earlier this week that he expected the team to go the three-year contract route, but if there is really as big of a gap as LeBrun suggests, it’s hard to bet on anything at this point.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Julius Honka Requests Trade

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Like many of the other teams around the league, the Dallas Stars are currently dealing with an unsigned restricted free agent. Unlike many of those teams however, there seems to be no desire for either side to get something done with Julius Honka. In fact, Stars GM Jim Nill told media including Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas News that Honka has requested a trade. The 23-year old was issued a qualifying offer earlier this offseason so that the Stars would retain his exclusive RFA rights, but there doesn’t appear to be much opportunity in the NHL for him.

Nill was actually quite candid with DeFranks when discussing the trade talks:

Teams that I’ve talked to might have interest but until they know what they can do with their RFAs, they can’t make any moves. They’re capped out. We’ll play this out, see where it goes.

Originally selected 14th overall in 2014, Honka has been unable to ever really find a role with Dallas and saw more healthy scratches than games last season. A dominant presence in the minor leagues, he’s played just 87 games at the NHL level and has 13 points. The young defenseman can move the puck quickly and effectively, but has warts in his game that aren’t being fixed by sitting in the press box. Reaching a deal with Dallas seemed far-fetched all offseason, and Honka’s agent Todd Diamond made it clear today to Sean Shapiro of The Athletic:

We’ve known for a little while and Jim more recently have all come to the conclusion it wasn’t going to happen in Dallas for Julius.

There are certainly risks to acquiring a player like Honka that hasn’t been able to crack an NHL lineup, but there should also be no lack of interest. In the short times he has been on the ice there has been enough positive signs that a rebuilding team could take a chance on him, especially as a relatively cheap option. Honka has little leverage for a big contract and likely just wants a chance to get into the lineup on a regular basis. Diamond also explained that Europe is not an option at this point, meaning any acquiring team would be definitely getting his services.

Snapshots: Red Wings, Blues, RFAs

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The Detroit Red Wings will operate without a captain once again this season, despite the expectation that Dylan Larkin will one day assume the role. Head coach Jeff Blashill told reporters including Ansar Khan of MLive that they will instead start with four alternates: Larkin, Justin Abdelkader, Frans Nielsen and Luke Glendening. Blashill and Steve Yzerman agreed to wait until the GM got to know the entire team better after taking over this offseason.

Larkin, 23, has become the face of the Red Wings franchise after putting up a career-high 32 goals and 73 points last season. As the old guard including Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk and recently Niklas Kronwall have moved on from their roles on the Red Wings, Larkin and other young players have taken on more and more responsibility. As the team transitions from rebuilding to contending over the next few years it seems likely that someone will eventually wear the “C” for Blashill and Yzerman, just not yet.

  • The St. Louis Blues are finalizing extensions for Steve Ott and David Alexander according to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The pair of assistant coaches will be given extensions that match the length of head coach Craig Berube, who was given a three-year deal earlier this summer. The coaching staff under Berube completed a miracle turnaround this season with the Blues, taking them from last place in the NHL to Stanley Cup champions in just a few months.
  • Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest has heard a few things on restricted free agents Patrik Laine and Mikko Rantanen, including about a recent short-term offer from the Winnipeg Jets to the former. The deal presented to Laine was in the “$5MM per year range” though Strickland notes that even on that short-term deal the Jets will “need to come up on money.” For Rantanen, Strickland reports that the free agent forward is not far away in terms of salary with the Colorado Avalanche and that the team’s last offer “blew past Nathan MacKinnon’s $6.3MM AAV.”

Morning Notes: Theodore, Flyers, Pettersson

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You can bet Shea Theodore didn’t have the summer he was expecting. After failing a random drug test at the World Championship because of an elevated hormone level, Theodore was informed that it was not because of a supplement but he in fact had testicular cancer and would need surgery right away. The Vegas Golden Knights defenseman opened up about the situation in an article for the Players’ Tribune today, explaining that though it was a frightful time in his life he has fully recovered.

Theodore said that Phil Kessel reached out this summer to give his support, given that the veteran forward dealt with the same diagnosis years ago. Theodore credits that drug test with potentially saving him from a battle that would have much more difficult, and implores everyone to get checked regularly and be open with your physician.

  • The Philadelphia Flyers are getting closer to a deal with Ivan Provorov, according to Bob McKenzie of TSN. The two sides are still working through the negotiation and both three and six year deals are on the table, but things have turned positive in recent days. It seems as though things aren’t so rosy for the other Flyers’ RFA, as McKenzie tweets that Travis Konecny is not close to a new deal. The pair are huge parts of the Philadelphia future and will hopefully join the team in training camp soon with freshly inked deals.
  • That’s exactly what is happening for Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Marcus Pettersson, who is joining the team and expected to sign in the “next day or so” according to McKenzie. The deal will be a short-term contract, but would mean the team has their full complement of players in camp. The Penguins do appear to have too many NHL-caliber defensemen on the roster at the moment, meaning a trade or waivers is coming for at least one. Of course, that is contingent on the rest of the group staying healthy through camp, which is not a certainty anywhere around the NHL.

Minnesota Wild Sign Kevin Fiala

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Apparently Bill Guerin’s offer to Kevin Fiala was good enough after all. The Minnesota Wild have re-signed the restricted free agent forward to a two-year, $6MM contract. The deal carries a $2.5MM salary in 2019-20 and a $3.5MM salary in 2020-21. Fiala will still be an RFA when the deal expires.

Fiala, 23, had been in negotiations with former Minnesota GM Paul Fenton when he was fired earlier this offseason, meaning things were put on hold for a time as the team conducted its search for a new leader. Guerin, hired in late August, can now wash his hands of the RFA market after signing Fiala, his last remaining player without a contract. The young forward will now be able to participate in training camp, though as Michael Russo of The Athletic pointed out yesterday, may miss a day or two as he waits for a work visa.

Originally selected 11th overall in 2014, Fiala started his career with the Nashville Predators organization (under Fenton, who was serving as the GM of the Milwaukee Admirals at the time) and quickly made an impact. After dominating the minor leagues he graduated to the NHL and showed that he could be a regular in the top-six and contribute offensively, scoring 23 goals and 48 points in his sophomore season. Last year after getting off to a slower start he was targeted by Fenton at the deadline and acquired by the Wild in exchange for Mikael Granlund. Though he registered just seven points in 19 games for Minnesota down the stretch, he will be expected to be a huge part of the offense going forward.

Even under new management, Fiala’s importance to the team is obvious. If the Wild are to find any success transitioning from their old core to the new group, the 23-year old needs to be front and center as a goal scoring threat. A $3MM salary is proof that they believe he can do that, especially coming off a 13-goal, 39-point year.

For the Wild this deal may seem a tad expensive given how Fiala performed last season, but it at least gets him into camp and will keep him under team control. Unlike some of the other restricted free agents signed this summer, he’ll still be two years from unrestricted free agency at the end of the contract. While his back-heavy deal does guarantee a qualifying offer of $3.5MM in 2021, that is not nearly as prohibitive for the team as some of the other deals. Even after inking Fiala the Wild have some excess cap room to work with this season and could potentially be involved in another transaction at some point before the season begins.

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