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Central Notes: Strome, Little, Dickinson, Comeau

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After watching a long line of restricted free agents waiting until the end of the summer (and many well into training camp) to sign, many teams are trying to get their RFAs locked up as soon as possible. After the Chicago Blackhawks signed Alex DeBrincat to a new three-year, $19.2MM deal the day before the season started, the next question many fans have now is whether Dylan Strome might be next in line for a contract.

The tough point for Chicago, however, is the sample size, according to NBC Sports’ Charlie Roumeliotis. Strome struggled significantly while with Arizona before finally taking off once traded to the Blackhawks. He scored 17 goals and 51 points in 58 games once traded to the Blackhawks. However, does that mean Strome should get a big contract based on that partial season?

“I don’t anticipate negotiating through the press with Dylan either and I think that was a nice thing with Alex, you guys kind of left us alone with that one, so I would suggest to do the same thing,” Stan Bowman joked with the media. “But we have time on that. Certainly that’s the next order of business. Whether we do it now or in a month or in six months, I can’t say at this point, but certainly that’s something we’ll take a look at.”

  • NHL.com’s Mitchell Clinton reports that Winnipeg Jets veteran center Bryan Little skated with the team at Sunday’s morning skate, wearing a gold non-contact jersey. Little has been out for a week since suffering a concussion a week ago in their preseason finale against the Wild. It’s a step in the right direction, but don’t expect Little to be inserted into the lineup immediately. “You get him out there with a lot of traffic and motion and see how he feels,” said head coach Paul Maurice. “He’s moved closer, but I don’t think he’s ready for (Pittsburgh) because he’d need more than one full contact practice. We’ll get him through at least one or two more in the gold.”
  • The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro (subscription required) writes that forward Jason Dickinson is still expected to be out another week, if not more, with an upper-body injury after taking a cross check against Boston, while veteran Blake Comeau remains out between two to four weeks with a lower-body injury. Dickinson was just starting to establish himself as a second-line option for Dallas before the injury. He scored six goals and 22 points last year in his first full season. The team is hoping for more from the 24-year-old. Comeau is a key bottom-line player for Dallas.

Latest On Kyle Connor, Winnipeg Jets

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After the Tampa Bay Lightning signed Brayden Point to a three-year deal earlier today, fans in Calgary, Winnipeg and Colorado may have received a boost of hope that their own restricted free agent standoffs would be resolved soon. Not so for the Jets apparently, as both Bob McKenzie of TSN and Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) report that things aren’t close with Kyle Connor. Connor’s agent Rich Evans told LeBrun that any speculation that the two sides are close to a deal is “just not true.”

Connor, 22, was considered a more straightforward RFA negotiation than teammate Patrik Laine by many thanks to his consistent production through the first two-plus years of his NHL career, but things have obviously not progressed as quickly as expected. The 17th overall pick from 2015 has 65 goals over the last two seasons and is an extremely important part of the Jets’ offense, but is now at risk of missing all of training camp and perhaps even the start of the regular season.

While Connor would likely not command the near $11MM cap hit that Mitch Marner pulled in on a six-year term, he also wouldn’t come cheap for the Jets if they were buying out unrestricted free agent years. That puts the team in a bit of a pickle given the uncertainty around their cap situation right now. Not knowing what Laine will come in at and with no decision yet on Dustin Byfuglien’s playing career, Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is in a tough negotiating position. If they knew for sure that Byfuglien wouldn’t come back at some point they might be able to reach a little further into their pocketbooks for Connor and Laine, but right now he’s holding $7.4MM in cap space hostage. Suspended by the team, Byfuglien’s deal is currently not counted towards the cap ceiling, but that would change if he returned.

LeBrun also notes that things get even trickier for the Jets (and Flames too) if these negotiations last into the season. While the daily cap charge on a multi-year contract doesn’t change if signed in-season, the year-long charge does as we saw with William Nylander last year. When the Toronto Maple Leafs finally signed Nylander at the end of November, his prorated annual cap hit for 2018-19 shot up to almost $10.3MM. Though there are CBA machinations to allow the Jets some flexibility when it comes to that increased hit, it still makes things more complicated once the season begins.

 

Atlantic Notes: Debrusk, Suzuki, Evans, Olofsson

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The Boston Bruins went to the wire with two of their restricted free agents this summer in Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo. Next year might be even worse. The team will have 10 free agents to deal with and another key restricted free agent in Jake Debrusk and will have to hope they can negotiate their way to avoid any holdouts.

Debrusk is coming off a 27-goal season, which would suggest a significant raise, especially if Debrusk can duplicate or even surpass last seasons numbers. NBC Sports’ Joe Haggerty writes that Debrusk has kept a careful watch on the negotiations with McAvoy and Carlo and hopes he also can avoid any kind of a holdout.

“Obviously that’s going to be my situation [as an RFA]. Hopefully not [as a holdout], but maybe, possibly next year just looking around the league you see different things with guys dragging it out,” said DeBrusk, who will be joined by Brett Ritchie and Matt Grzelcyk as next summer’s restricted free agents for the Bruins. “It’s one of those where you ask questions on the business side of it. Things change and different stuff happens with talks, but at the same time I mostly just try to stay out of it. I try to stay dialed in to get ready for training camp and the season. I guess when that time comes, though, I’ll be more aware of what to expect.”

  • The Athletic’s Marc Dumont (subscription required) writes that the Montreal Canadiens have two key players vying for a roster spot in an intense training camp. The team especially likes what it has seen so far from Nick Suzuki and Jake Evans. The Canadiens have given Suzuki a chance to play on the wing so he can challenge for a roster spot and the 20-year-old has fared quite well so far in the preseason. Evans is fighting for a job on the fourth line, but will have to beat out quite a few veterans to claim the job, including Nick Cousins, Nate Thompson and Jordan Weal.
  • Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News writes that with many young prospects on the Buffalo Sabres vying for a job with the team, one player that has nothing to worry about is forward Victor Olofsson. The scribe says that Olofsson is a lock to make the team as he has had a dominant camp thus far. The 24-year-olf Olofsson proved himself in the SHL in 2017-18 when he tallied 27 goals. Then he proved himself once again in the AHL last season when he potted 30 goals and scored a pair of goals for the Sabres in six late regular season games. The team has been

 

Blues’ Jake Allen Promised Trade Protection

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Even after winning the Stanley Cup, many expected that the St. Louis Blues would be active on the trade market this summer. The team seemingly lacked the salary cap space to re-sign a vast number of restricted free agents, including goaltender Jordan Binnington, defenseman Joel Edmundson, and forwards Oskar Sundqvist, Ivan Barbashev, Zach Sanford, and Robby Fabbri. Somehow, GM Doug Armstrong did manage to get all of his young RFA’s back under contract, although it took time and left the Blues with very little cap flexibility heading into the new season. Unsurprisingly, that meant that trade rumors persisted throughout the off-season.

A quick look at the defending champs’ roster reveals that there is really only one obvious piece that St. Louis could be expected to try to move on from: starting goaltender turned overpriced backup Jake Allen. Allen’s name popped up throughout the summer and he tells Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he was well aware of the rumors. However, he also informed Thomas that he knew better than to get caught up in the hype. Allen states that Armstrong and company assured him that he would not be traded this past summer:

I knew internally all along this summer that I wasn’t getting dealt. They had told me that. You know, people talk and things like that, but I knew that they don’t want to get rid of me, so it was good to be reassured that way. I knew that I was coming back. So just put my mind at ease and get really focused on being the best Blue I can. There was a lot of chatter obviously with the way the summer went and the run that Binner went on. But internally I knew I was coming back, so I wasn’t worried about it at all.

The language used by Allen paints a pretty clear picture of where his head is at entering the 2019-20 campaign. The 29-year-old is confident that the Blues want him in the mix and calls the play of 26-year-old rookie Binnington “a run”. In reality, Binnington greatly outperformed Allen in the second half of the year and earned the lion’s share of starts. He finished the season with a GAA nearly one whole goal better than Allen and save percentage more than 20 points better. It wasn’t close between the two and was actually the second poor season in a row for Allen. Yet, he still believes that this is an open competition and the contract figures may support his claim.

If the Blues did in fact promise not to trade Allen – albeit a handshake agreement as he has no trade protection in his contract – it does stand to reason that they see the next two years as an open competition to see which keeper, if either, is deserving of an extension. Even after his Calder Trophy finalist-caliber year, Binnington only received a two-year, $8.7MM contract. Both his and Allen’s contracts will expire following the 2020-21 season and in the meantime, Allen will still be making $50K more as the supposed backup. The scenario provides hope for the veteran netminder and that’s all he needs to get excited for the challenge of a new season: “There’s one net out there, and I’m gonna go after it. No question.”

New York Rangers Agree To Terms With Tony DeAngelo

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The New York Rangers now have all of their restricted free agents in the fold, agreeing to terms with Tony DeAngelo on a one-year deal worth $925K. The Rangers held firm to an offer they had presented some time ago, meaning DeAngelo will need to prove his worth once again in order to land a bigger contract as an RFA again next year.

DeAngelo, 23, finally found his footing in the NHL last season, recording 30 points in 61 games for the Rangers and growing into arguably the team’s most effective right-handed defenseman. While that role will be diminished thanks to the acquisition of Jacob Trouba (and to a lesser degree, Adam Fox), there’s no reason to believe that DeAngelo will revert back to a part-time player moving forward. The 19th overall pick from 2014 always did have incredible skill, but things didn’t go well for him in Tampa Bay or Arizona in the early part of his career.

That upside is why the $925K contract is so surprising, especially in a summer where restricted free agents are landing huge contracts. Keeping his contract low was imperative for the Rangers though after they spent so much money on Trouba and Artemi Panarin, putting them right up against the salary cap ceiling to start the year. You can bet DeAngelo will be looking for a substantial raise if that point production continues, especially if he can stay healthy all season and play in more than 61 games for the first time in his career.

NHL Releases Detailed Rule Changes For 2019-20

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The NHL’s Public Relations team has released a video updating all of the rule changes for the upcoming season, agreed upon earlier this year. The five-minute video goes in-depth on each change, noting that the focus was on expanded video review, promoting player safety and encouraging more offense. The full list is as follows:

Video Review:

Referees will be required to review any major or match penalty, excluding fighting majors. The penalty can be confirmed or reduced to a minor penalty, but not completely rescinded.

The officials can also review any double-minor high-sticking penalty, and either confirm or rescind it if it wasn’t an opponent’s stick that caused the damage. It cannot be reduced to a minor penalty.

In both cases, review will not be used to call a penalty, only review. It also cannot be used to increase a penalty from a minor to a major.

Coaches Challenge:

In addition to offside and goaltender interference, coaches can now challenge plays in the offensive zone that should have resulted in a stoppage but did not prior to a goal. The examples given are pucks off the spectator netting, a hand pass or high-stick.

All three categories now result in a two-minute minor penalty for the first unsuccessful challenge, and a four-minute double-minor penalty for the second unsuccessful challenge. Plays in the final minute of the third period and overtime will be automatically reviewed by the league situation room.

Helmets:

Rule 9.6 – A player on the ice whose helmet comes off during play shall be assessed a minor penalty if he does not either exit the playing surface or retrieve and replace his helmet properly on his head within a reasonable amount of time. 

“Reasonable” is at the discretion of the referee. A player who intentionally removes an opponent’s helmet, will be assessed a minor roughing penalty.

Line Changes:

Teams will no longer be allowed to execute a line change if their goalie initiates a stoppage on a puck shot from the other side of center, or if the net is unintentionally dislodged by a defensive skater (does not include the goaltender). In either case, time-outs are also not permitted.

Face-Offs:

Face-offs will take place in zone where puck was shot out of bounds from, regardless of which team shot it.

The offensive team will be allowed to choose which face-off location following an icing, following a goalie stoppage from behind the red line, following a defensive skater unintentionally dislodging the net, and on the first face-off to start a powerplay.

 

Snapshots: Juulsen, Rantanen, Gust

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The Montreal Canadiens have announced some troubling news regarding young defenseman Noah Juulsen, who is planning on consulting a specialist for his ongoing headaches. Juulsen just can’t seem to stay healthy long enough to take a real step forward in his development, having missed all but 24 games at any level last season after taking two pucks to the face in November.

Originally drafted 26th overall in 2015, the former WHL standout has actually only played in a total of 80 games as a professional and seems to still be facing symptoms that could put the start of his season in jeopardy. Even if he does get them sorted out quickly the team now has eight NHL defensemen on the roster and more coming up the pipeline. While Juulsen could likely pass over names like Karl Alzner and Christian Folin quickly, he’ll have to get healthy to even give himself a chance.

  • After another report recently that the Colorado Avalanche and Mikko Rantanen are not close to a deal, it looks like he’s found another unsigned RFA to spend some time with. According to a report out of Finland, Rantanen will join Patrik Laine with SC Bern of the Swiss NLA to train until things are resolved. Rantanen also played in the 2016 World Championship under Bern head coach Kari Jalonen, where Laine earned tournament MVP honors and the Finns took home a silver medal.
  • Even though most minor league rosters are set at this point and just waiting for training camp cuts from their NHL affiliates, the Charlotte Checkers aren’t done adding depth. The team signed Dave Gust to an AHL deal today, bringing in the former Ohio State star to give them another option up front. The 25-year old Gust has played the last two seasons with the Bakersfield Condors, scoring 33 points in 59 games last year.

Boston Bruins Sign Brandon Carlo

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The Boston Bruins have locked up their final unsigned restricted free agent, inking Brandon Carlo to a two-year deal. The contract carries an average annual value of $2.85MM and will keep Carlo a restricted free agent at its expiry. Like most of the other RFAs this summer, the young defenseman will earn more money on the final year of the deal. Carlo will take home $2.2MM in 2019-20 and $3.5MM in 2020-21.

Carlo, 22, was a little overshadowed by Charlie McAvoy this summer as the young duo became restricted free agents at the same time, but he nevertheless was an extremely important piece for GM Don Sweeney to get under contract before the season began. A second-round pick in 2015, Carlo has quickly established himself as a reliable full-time option for the Bruins and played in 230 games over the last three seasons. The 6’5″ defenseman averaged nearly 21 minutes a night last season and recorded ten points, serving as the second most important penalty killer on the team behind only captain Zdeno Chara.

Though they were forced to go the bridge route with both McAvoy and Carlo (and Danton Heinen, who was signed earlier in the offseason), the Bruins have found a way to bring all of their pieces back with cap space to spare for this season. The team currently projects to come in a little more than $1.1MM under the ceiling to begin the year with almost the same lineup that took them to the Stanley Cup Final.

To be sure, there will be raises for both young defensemen in the future if they continue to play how they have during the early parts of their careers. But getting them both for less than $8MM combined will only help the Bruins current competitive window stay wide open.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

More On Mitch Marner’s Negotiation

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Mitch Marner is back at the Toronto Maple Leafs training camp after signing a six-year deal worth more than $65MM last week. The young forward was one of the biggest stories of the offseason as his representatives and the team went back and forth on term and salary, threatening to miss time like his teammate William Nylander last year. This morning, Marner’s agent Darren Ferris told Sportsnet radio that two offer sheets were presented to his client during the offseason but that they never considered accepting them, instead wanting to get a deal done with the Maple Leafs. Marner himself confirmed it, explaining his decision to Kristen Shilton of TSN:

As soon as Darren mentioned [offer sheets], I told him right away I don’t want to explore that option. But I didn’t want to miss training camp…or any games this season, so that’s why I really forced the issue with Kyle [Dubas] to get something done and get me here.

While Marner may have immediately turned down the offer sheets, it does raise some questions about which teams tried them and how much they were willing to pay. Former NHL forward Matthew Barnaby believes they were from the Columbus Blue Jackets and Minnesota Wild, though Marner and Ferris obviously wouldn’t confirm. If they had been equivalent to the deal that Marner eventually got from the Maple Leafs, the teams would have had to give up the maximum RFA compensation of four first-round picks. That’s a tough price for any team to pay, and one that would have forced the Maple Leafs to at least consider the option.

Now though, Toronto can focus on their upcoming preseason schedule with the whole group signed and in training camp. Marner, Auston Matthews and John Tavares now make up three of the seven highest-paid forwards in the league and will need to prove they can have more than just regular season success. With players like Jake Muzzin and Tyson Barrie coming off the books or demanding raises next summer as unrestricted free agents, this season may be one of the team’s only shots with the current group.

RFA Profile: Mikko Rantanen

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Avalanche winger Mikko Rantanen is now the top remaining restricted free agent following the signings of quite a few players around the league over the past few days.  While it’s possible that those moves could get the ball rolling on a new deal for him, the likelier scenario at this point is that it doesn’t.  Here is a look at Rantanen’s situation.

The 22-year-old is coming off his second straight season with over 80 points, a feat that not many players have reached in recent years.  He also played quite well in the postseason where he led the team in scoring with 14 points in a dozen games.  As far as offensive production goes, there aren’t many real comparable players out there.

One element that Colorado may try to use against him in talks is how much offensive zone starts he had last season.  Their top line all saw heavy usage in the offensive end but none more than Rantanen.  His career OZ% rate is higher than quite a few of the players that could be considered as comparables.  There was a time where teammate Nathan MacKinnon’s $6.3MM AAV was set as the ideal ceiling for the whole team but let’s face it, that’s not going to happen.  He’s a player with two high-end seasons under his belt and is still viewed as having some upside.  He’s going to get a substantial contract that is well past MacKinnon’s.

Statistics

2018-19: 74 GP, 31-56-87, +13, 54 PIMS, 193 shots, 20:51 ATOI
Career: 230 GP, 80-129-209, -19, 112 PIMS, 513 shots, 18:53 ATOI

Comparables

Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) – His placement here is basically to establish the floor for this contract.  Like Rantanen, they’re both viewed as the second-best offensive threat on their respective teams and while Draisaitl played the premium position (he was mostly a center at the time), Rantanen outscored him by a fair margin in each of their two full NHL seasons.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 29-48-77, +7, 20 PIMS, 172 shots, 18:53 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 191 GP, 50-87-137, -12, 44 PIMS, 354 shots, 17:22 ATOI

Contract: Eight years, $68MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 11.33%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $73.87MM ($9.23MM AAV)

Jack Eichel (Buffalo) – This is a contract that Rantanen’s camp will undoubtedly point to as a benchmark deal.  Eichel hadn’t reached the 70-point mark in any of his ELC years, something that Rantanen easily surpassed twice.  Yes, Eichel plays the tougher position and has the better draft pedigree but there is a good case to be made that Rantanen deserves more than this contract.

Platform Year Stats: 67 GP, 25-39-64, -25, 32 PIMS, 246 shots, 20:09 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 209 GP, 73-104-177, -54, 76 PIMS, 743 shots, 19:41 ATOI

Contract: Eight years, $80MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.33%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $86.91MM ($10.86MM AAV)

Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay) – I’m focusing on his post-ELC deal, not his current one.  (Since Rantanen is coming off his entry-level pact, all of the comparable contracts are also post-ELC ones.)  He went with a shorter deal to get to UFA eligibility quicker.  Stamkos, a number one overall pick, also outscored Rantanen in each season (though Rantanen’s point per game pace was a little higher than Stamkos’ platform season).  While the RFA market has improved since 2011, this deal (in today’s dollars) should be considered the ceiling of a medium-term contract.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 45-46-91, +3, 74 PIMS, 272 shots, 20:12 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 243 GP, 119-113-232, -12, 151 PIMS, 750 shots, 18:36 ATOI

Contract: Five years, $37.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 11.66%
Current Equivalent: Five years, $47.51MM ($9.502MM AAV)

Mitch Marner (Toronto) – The obvious one is saved for last.  Many expected Marner’s deal to basically be a comparable as soon as it was signed and there’s little reason to think it won’t be.  Marner is a bit more of a playmaker than Rantanen and they play different styles but they’re both very productive wingers so the money is going to be pretty close one way or the other.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 26-68-94, +22, 22 PIMS, 233 shots, 19:49 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 241 GP, 67-157-224, +21, 81 PIMS, 603 shots, 17:41 ATOI

Contract: Six years, $65.358MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.37%

Projected Contract

GM Joe Sakic has made it known that his preference would be to get a long-term deal done.  However, the appetite probably won’t be there at the rate it would take to get a max-term contract in place.  The Avalanche have the salary cap space to make such a move but with some of their other players that will be needing new deals a couple years from now, a slightly lesser term will give them a bit more flexibility down the road.

With that in mind, a two or three-year bridge deal likely isn’t on the table as well.  Those can be justifiable when a team is in a cap crunch but that isn’t the case here.  Four years walks him to unrestricted free agency so that’s off the table as well.

As a result, five or six years could very well be the happy medium.  If it’s five years, it should check in slightly below the $9.502MM current year equivalent for Stamkos’ deal.  On a six-year pact and a second UFA year included, the AAV should jump a little past the $10MM mark.  There’s a valid argument to have him in Marner’s territory but Colorado’s cap situation compared to Toronto’s gives the Avalanche a bit more leverage than what the Maple Leafs had as they couldn’t let Marner’s case drag out into the season and make the first year AAV higher than they could afford even with LTIR.  That should be enough to keep Rantanen’s price tag a little lower in the end.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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