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Raphael Lavoie, Phil Kemp Assigned To AHL

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The Edmonton Oilers are bringing back a pair of prospects, assigning Raphael Lavoie and Phil Kemp to the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL. The two played this season with Vasby IK in Sweden’s second league in order to make sure they didn’t miss a year of development.

Lavoie, 20, dominated the league, registering 45 points in 51 games to lead his club and finish 12th overall in scoring. The 38th overall pick in 2018, Lavoie is a big frame that has shown an ability to score everywhere he’s played, racking up goals with his impressive shot off the rush and power in front of the net. After an outstanding year overseas, he’ll try to take the next step into North American professional hockey and continue his development.

Kemp, 22, is certainly a bit of a different story. Selected 208th overall in 2017, the big defenseman spent three years playing for Yale and was headed for a fourth before the school’s hockey program shut down for the year. Instead, Kemp signed his entry-level contract with the Oilers last November and then was shipped overseas to get ice time and his first taste of the professional scene.

Even after a relatively successful season in Sweden, Kemp still doesn’t have the kind of upside that someone like Lavoie possesses and will have to scratch and claw for every opportunity in his career. The steady, 6’3″ defender is an interesting piece to keep an eye on in Edmonton though, given the other more offensive blue line talents the team has in their pipeline. Perhaps Kemp can be a counterpoint to someone like Evan Bouchard, taking on the heavy defensive and penalty-killing minutes.

2021 NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Regional

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March 26: Just like Notre Dame yesterday, Michigan has now been forced to withdraw from the tournament due to multiple positive COVID tests. Minnesota-Duluth will advance in a “no-contest.”

March 22: After an odd season played almost exclusively in-conference, the best of college hockey are finally about to collide. The 2021 NCAA Tournament is set to kick off on Friday, and by Sunday the 16-team field will be down to just four, the Frozen Four. Those teams will then meet next on April 8, with the champion being crowned on April 10. In a single-elimination, do-or-die tournament, the stakes are always high. In a season where almost no one has had the chance to face the top teams outside of their own conference, the bar has been raised even further.

Here is a look at the group in the Midwest Regional, hosted in Fargo, North Dakota. No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3 take place on Friday, followed by the winners playing on Saturday for the chance to advance:

1)  No. 1 North Dakota
NHL Prospects:
D Jake Sanderson, Ottawa Senators (R1, 2020)
D Jacob Bernard-Docker, Ottawa Senators (R1, 2018)
F Shane Pinto, Ottawa Senators (R2, 2019)
D Tyler Kleven, Ottawa Senators (R2, 2020)
F Grant Mismash, Nashville Predators (R2, 2017)
F Jasper Weatherby, San Jose Sharks (R4, 2018)
D Cooper Moore, Detroit Red Wings (R5, 2019)
F Harrison Blaisdell, Winnipeg Jets (R5, 2019)
F Judd Caulfield, Pittsburgh Penguins (R5, 2019)
G Peter Thome, Columbus Blue Jackets (R6, 2016)
F Collin Adams, New York Islanders (R6, 2016)
F Gavin Hain, Philadelphia Flyers (R6, 2018)

Priority Free Agents: F Jordan Kawaguchi, D Matt Kiersted, G Adam Scheel

The talent of the Fighting Hawks is obvious, on paper and in their results. The top team in the nation was third in goals per game and sixth in goals against per game, competing against the elite competition of the NCHC. Even though Fargo looks to be the most difficult region, North Dakota should be the favorite to survive and ultimately to win the entire tournament. They almost certainly won’t get another chance with this core of top prospects, a group of high NHL draft picks and several undrafted veterans bound for the pros as well.

2) No. 9 Minnesota-Duluth
NHL Prospects:
D Wyatt Kaiser, Chicago Blackhawks (R3, 2020)
D Matt Kairns, Edmonton Oilers (R3, 2016)
F Quinn Olson, Boston Bruins (R3, 2019)
F Blake Biondi, Montreal Canadiens (R4, 2020)
F Noah Cates, Philadelphia Flyers (R5, 2018)
F Cole Koepke, Tampa Bay Lightning (R6, 2018)
F Luke Loheit, Ottawa Senators (R7, 2018)
F Nick Swaney, Minnesota Wild (R7, 2017)

Priority Free Agents: F Jackson Cates

Still the reigning NCAA champs, after last season’s tournament was canceled, the Bulldogs have appeared in each of the last three finals and have won the past two. They can’t be counted out, even if they don’t quite have the talent level that they used to. They are still a top-ten team in scoring defense and are tough to play against. However, UMD undoubtedly draws the toughest first-round matchup of any higher seed in Michigan – as evidenced by the national poll ranking the “underdog” above them. They would then have to beat NCHC rival North Dakota to move on.

3) No. 8 Michigan
NHL Prospects:
D Cam York, Philadelphia Flyers (R1, 2019)
F Brendan Brisson, Vegas Golden Knights (R1, 2020)
F Johnny Beecher, Boston Bruins (R1, 2019)
F Thomas Bordeleau, San Jose Sharks (R2, 2020)
G Erik Portillo, Buffalo Sabres (R3, 2019)
F Jack Becker, Boston Bruins (R7, 2015)
F Eric Ciccolini, New York Rangers (R7, 2019)

Top 2021 NHL Draft Prospects: D Owen Power, F Matthew Beniers, F Kent Johnson
Priority Free Agents: G Strauss Mann

The Wolverines entered the season with high expectations and have remained one of the most talked-about teams in college hockey all year. Not only does the Big Ten powerhouse already sport three already-drafted NHL first-rounders, but they will add three more this summer – potentially even three top-ten picks. The immense skill among Michigan’s young players, combined with a stingy defense and solid goaltending, makes them a dangerous team and a dark horse to upset two top teams in Minnesota-Duluth and North Dakota. Inexperience could be the major hurdle standing in their way.

4) No. 14 American International
NHL Prospects: G Jake Kucharski, Carolina Hurricanes (R7, 2018)

AIC has established themselves as the top dog in Atlantic Hockey over the past few years, but were never considered a threat as an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament, still needing to earn the automatic qualification of a conference tournament win. While the situation never arose this year, there was beginning to be some push for AIC to potentially get into the national tourney this year even if they hadn’t won the Atlantic. The program is moving in the right direction. With that said, they are saddled with three elite teams in their region and it is very hard to see them winning their first game, nevertheless both needed to advance.

National ranks courtesy of the March 22 USA Today/USA Hockey Magazine Men’s College Hockey Poll

2021 NCAA Tournament Preview: Northeast Regional

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March 25: Due to COVID-19 protocols, Notre Dame will not be taking part in the tournament. Boston College will get a “no-contest” advancement to the next round instead of playing the scheduled game on Saturday. This means the season is over for Notre Dame’s NHL prospects, who can now decide whether or not to sign a professional contract.

March 24: After an odd season played almost exclusively in-conference, the best of college hockey are finally about to collide. The 2021 NCAA Tournament is set to kick off on Friday, and by Sunday the 16-team field will be down to just four, the Frozen Four. Those teams will then meet next on April 8, with the champion being crowned on April 10. In a single-elimination, do-or-die tournament, the stakes are always high. In a season where almost no one has had the chance to face the top teams outside of their own conference, the bar has been raised even further.

Here is a look at the group in the Northeast Regional, hosted in Albany, New York. No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3 take place on Saturday, followed by the winners playing on Sunday for the chance to advance:

1) No. 3 Boston College
NHL Prospects:
F Matt Boldy, Minnesota Wild (R1, 2019)
G Spencer Knight, Florida Panthers (R1, 2019)
F Alex Newhook, Colorado Avalanche (R1, 2019)
D Drew Helleson, Colorado Avalanche (R2, 2019)
F Jack McBain, Minnesota Wild (R3, 2018)
F Trevor Kuntar, Boston Bruins (R3, 2020)
F Logan Hutsko, Florida Panthers (R3, 2018)
D Jack St. Ivany, Philadelphia Flyers (R4, 2018)
D Eamon Powell, Tampa Bay Lightning (R4, 2020)
F Colby Ambrosio, Colorado Avalanche (R4, 2020)
D Michael Karow, Arizona Coyotes (R5, 2017)
D Marshall Warren, Minnesota Wild (R6, 2019)
F Nikita Nesterenko, Minnesota Wild (R6, 2019)

Priority Free Agents: F Marc McLaughlin, F Mike Hardman

Boston College is always a threat on the national stage and this year is no different. As deep as any team in the NCAA and with one of the best goaltenders in college hockey, the Eagles will be a tough out. Their top-ranked offense is the real x-factor though. While BC could stand on their talented two-way forwards, defense, and goaltending alone – who did combine for the No. 13 ranked scoring defense this season – it is their ability to score at will that makes them incredibly dangerous. The only team in the nation to notch more than four tallies a game, any team hoping to beat BC has to equally match their offense, which means beating the stellar Spencer Knight. Ironically, one of the only teams that has the top-end talent to do just that might be waiting for them in their round two match-up: cross-town mortal foes Boston University and their seventh-ranked offense.

2) No. 7 St. Cloud State
NHL Prospects:
G David Hrenak, Los Angeles Kings (R5, 2018)
F Veeti Miettinen, Toronto Maple Leafs (R6, 2020)
D Nick Perbix, Tampa Bay Lightning (R6, 2017)
F Sam Hentges, Minnesota Wild (R7, 2018)

Priority Free Agents: D Spencer Meier

Everyone in college hockey is hoping to see BC and BU square off, so it’s up to the overshadowed Huskies to play spoiler. While St. Cloud doesn’t have the depth of talent as in years past and doesn’t match up with their Boston counterparts at first glance, the team finds ways to win games. Both their offense and defense ranked outside the top 16 in the NCAA and their goaltending has been fine if not unspectacular. Yet, St. Cloud finished second in the NCHC, arguably the strongest conference in college hockey. Call them overachievers if you like, but slated to play an underachiever in round one, the Huskies could hold off the anticipated upset.

3) No. 11 Boston University
NHL Prospects:
F Jay O’Brien, Philadelphia Flyers (R1, 2018)
D Alex Vlasic, Carolina Hurricanes (R2, 2019)
G Drew Commesso, Chicago Blackhawks (R2, 2020)
F Luke Tuch, Montreal Canadiens (R2, 2020)
F Robert Mastrosimone, Detroit Red Wings (R2, 2019)
F Jake Wise, Chicago Blackhawks (R3, 2018)
F Dylan Peterson, St. Louis Blues (R3, 2020)
D Domenick Fensore, Carolina Hurricanes (R3, 2019)
D David Farrance, Nashville Predators (R3, 2017)
F Ethan Phillips, Detroit Red Wings (R4, 2019)
D Cade Webber, Carolina Hurricanes (R4, 2019)
D Case McCarthy, New Jersey Devils (R4, 2019)
F Logan Cockerill, New York Islanders (R7, 2017)

On paper, the Terriers are again one of the strongest rosters in the NCAA. However, they have been great on paper for several years now and it has not translated into elite regular seasons or postseason success. If everyone on the BU roster plays up to their potential, Boston University could be in for a deep run. Yet, the Frozen Four has eluded the historic program since 2014-15 and there is no reason to believe they will overcome their demons now, especially with hard-working St. Cloud State and hated rival BC standing in their way.

4) Notre Dame
NHL Prospects:
F Landon Slaggert, Chicago Blackhawks (R3, 2020)
D Jake Boltmann, Calgary Flames (R3, 2020)
F Jacob Pivonka, New York Islanders (R4, 2018)
D Spencer Stastney, Nashville Predators (R5, 2018)
F Trevor Janicke, Anaheim Ducks (R5, 2019)
F Ryder Rolston, Colorado Avalanche (R5, 2020)
D Nate Clurman, Colorado Avalanche (R6, 2016)
D Nick Leivermann, Colorado Avalanche (R7, 2017)
D Matt Hellickson, New Jersey Devils (R7, 2017)

Priority Free Agents: F Alex Steeves

The only unranked team selected to the NCAA Tournament, calling Notre Dame’s inclusion in the national field a surprise is an understatement. While the Fighting Irish have plenty of NHL prospect talent and finished fourth in the Big Ten in the regular season, they did not have a winning record against the likes of Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan and were one-and-done in the Big Ten Tournament without having to play any of those three. Their anemic 33rd-ranked offense is also unlikely to frighten elite opponents. Yet, the committee opted for Notre Dame over the likes of Providence, Denver, Bowling Green, or UMass Lowell. The team is not without a chance against Boston College, but they will have to finally find their clutch factor this season and play their very best.

National ranks courtesy of the March 22 USA Today/USA Hockey Magazine Men’s College Hockey Poll

Trade Deadline Primer: Minnesota Wild

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Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Minnesota Wild.

The Minnesota Wild have been one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2020-21 season. Initially believed to be no more than a bubble team in the West Division, not only are the Wild safely within the playoff picture but they are actually well ahead of the rival St. Louis Blues for third place and nipping at the heels of the Colorado Avalanche in second. Minnesota’s season is not just a fluke, either. The long-awaited debut of Kirill Kaprizov has been as advertised, as the young Russian scorer has been one of the league’s most exciting players and has added a legitimate weapon to a team that has long lacked one. With other young players taking a step forward this season, off-season veteran additions solidifying the forward corps, the trade acquisition of Ian Cole rounding out a solid blue line, and a new tandem excelling in net, the Wild are the real deal. In fact, they don’t have many holes.

Well, except one massive, gaping hole. The Minnesota power play is an assault on the eyes. Unorganized and ineffective, it seems almost impossible that such a capable, composed even-strength team can be so bad on the man advantage. At 10%, the Wild’s power play is the worst in the league and no other team currently in playoff position is within nine spots – or 8.9% – of being as bad. While their No. 15-ranked offense is nothing to complain about, it can certainly be improved. With no issues defensively or in goal, as evidenced by strong goals against and penalty kill numbers, and no lack of veteran experience, an offensive weapon with power play ability is really the only focus. With just enough cap space to make one notable addition, it seems a top-six forward who excels man-up will be the Wild’s target and may just be enough to put them over the top.

Record

20-10-1, .661, 3rd in West Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$232.2K in full-season space ($1.04MM at the trade deadline), 1/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: MIN 1st, PIT 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN, 3rd, PIT 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th, MIN 7th
2022: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, SJS 5th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th

Trade Chips

While the Wild are enjoying a great season, GM Bill Guerin is not going to get ahead of himself. Sure, his team could make a run this year, but with some long-term questions still to be answered, such as the team’s future down the middle and the potential impact of the Expansion Draft on his deep lineup, Guerin isn’t going to mortgage the future – and possible years of sustained success – to hope for a Stanley Cup this year. As a result, don’t expect any of Minnesota’s young roster players to be on the market, nor top prospects like Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy, or Calen Addison. 

Instead, Minnesota will deal from a nice stockpile of draft picks and try to peddle their top young AHLers and their second tier of prospects. Especially if the goal at the deadline is to add a top-six player with term, a center in particular being the biggest need, young forward prospects such as Alex Khovanov, Marat Khusnutdinov, Adam Beckman, and Damien Giroux could be appealing targets for sellers. Collegiate property Vladislav Firstov, Jack McBain, Nikita Nesterenko and Sam Hentges will also draw interest, especially with the latter three still playing in the NCAA Tournament.

On the back end, there are some questions moving forward in terms of the potential impact of expansion, so the team could be more hesitant to deal top blue line prospects. However, for the right player the Wild may part with Ryan O’Rourke or Filip Johansson. 

With the emergence of Kaapo Kahkonen as the apparent starter of the future, Minnesota may also be open to moving their goalie prospects and they own two desirable names in first-year pro Hunter Jones and NCAA star Filip Lindberg. 

Others to Watch For: F Mitchell Chaffee ($925K, 2022 RFA), F Will Bitten ($805K, 2022 RFA), F Mason Shaw ($792.5K, 2022 RFA), F Ivan Lodnia ($747.5K, 2023 RFA), D Daemon Hunt (Draft Rights)

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Forward/Power Play Specialist – The Wild’s cap situation looks a little bleak right now, but CapFriendly’s numbers currently reflect a full 23-man roster and with Zach Parise counting against the cap despite not being on the active roster. With Parise back and everyone else staying healthy, paired with some cap space-saving roster maneuvers, CapFriendly predicts that Minnesota could have closer to $3MM in flexibility by the deadline. That could be enough to add a weapon up front. Again, the sole focus is on adding a forward with a history of power play success; a play-maker who understands how to use space and create scoring chances.

With a lot of salary about to come off the payroll next season, the Wild are not limited to rentals in addressing this need. They can certainly add an impending UFA to keep the price down, but with plenty of draft picks and prospects to draw from, they can go bigger with an impending RFA or a player with term.

2021 NCAA Tournament Preview: East Regional

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After an odd season played almost exclusively in-conference, the best of college hockey are finally about to collide. The 2021 NCAA Tournament is set to kick off on Friday, and by Sunday the 16-team field will be down to just four, the Frozen Four. Those teams will then meet next on April 8, with the champion being crowned on April 10. In a single-elimination, do-or-die tournament, the stakes are always high. In a season where almost no one has had the chance to face the top teams outside of their own conference, the bar has been raised even further.

Here is a look at the group in the East Regional, hosted in Bridgeport, Connecticut. No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3 take place on Friday, followed by the winners playing on Saturday for the chance to advance:

1) No. 4 Wisconsin
NHL Prospects:
F Dylan Holloway, Edmonton Oilers (R1, 2020)
F Cole Caufield, Montreal Canadiens (R1, 2019)
D Ty Emberson, Arizona Coyotes (R3, 2018)
F Sam Stange, Detroit Red Wings (R4, 2020)
F Ryder Donovan, Vegas Golden Knights (R4, 2019)
F Jack Gorniak, Montreal Canadiens (R4, 2018)
D Tyler Inamoto, Florida Panther (R5, 2017)
F Owen Lindmark, Florida Panthers (R5, 2019)
F Linus Weissbach, Buffalo Sabres (R7, 2017)
D Josh Ess, Chicago Blackhawks (R7, 2017)

Priority Free Agents: F Ty Pelton-Byce

Each of the first three regionals has a No. 1 seed that looks like a safe bet to emerge victorious. Sure, North Dakota faces a lose-lose scenario with the winner of Minnesota-Duluth or Michigan, but they’re the best team in the country and will be favored over either one. And Minnesota and Boston College may have potential in-state rivals awaiting them in the second round, but each has noticeable flaws. Fittingly, as we get to the lowest-ranked top seed, No. 4 Wisconsin, it really is a toss up between the top two teams in the East Region. Wisconsin’s case is pretty clear: they have elite offensive weapons that helped to form a top-five offense and a first line and top power play unit that rivals any in the country. No lead is safe when facing the Badgers, who can score in bunches with ease. Of course, that fact has been proven because defense and goaltending have been inconsistent in Madison this year and there was little room for error against the elite of the Big Ten. Barring a major upset of one team or the other, they will face that same pressure when they face UMass.

2) No. 5 Massachusetts
NHL Prospects:
D Zac Jones, New York Rangers (R3, 2019)
D Marc Del Gaizo, Nashville Predators (R4, 2019)
D Matthew Kessel, St. Louis Blues (R5, 2020)
G Filip Lindberg, Minnesota Wild (R7, 2019)

Priority Free Agents: F Carson Gicewicz, G Matt Murray

If UMass emerges from the regional, they will likely be the most battle-tested team in the Frozen Four. A veteran team that were finalists in 2019 and looked primed for a deep run before the 2020 cancelation, Amherst just won the Hockey East title and will need to knock off a preseason favorite in Wisconsin to advance. That isn’t possible without a championship caliber roster. Led by the best goaltending tandem in the land, UMass doesn’t sport the same level of talent that they did prior to major losses in each of the past two years, but brings experience and energy and a mobile, skilled blue line that makes it difficult to get a handle on the Minutemen. The question remains whether they can contain the Badgers’ top weapons, though. Even the best goalie is no match for too many opportunities from snipers like Caufield and Holloway.

3) No. 13 Lake Superior State
NHL Prospects: D Arvid Henrikson, Montreal Canadiens (R7, 2016)

Priority Free Agents: F Ashton Calder

Lake Superior State was a bubble team heading into their conference tournament, but thanks to an upset win over Bemidji State in the semis and an even bigger upset of Northern Michigan beating Minnesota State, the Lakers took the WCHA crown and an auto-qualifier bid into the national tournament. Heck, they even got a No. 3 seed out of it. Their reward? The Hockey East champion, UMass, who can be as good as any team in the country on a given day. Given that Lake State finished 32nd in offensive scoring this season despite playing exclusively in the relatively weak WCHA, it is fair to call them the worst offensive team in the tournament. To advance to round two, they have to beat the NCAA’s leader in save percentage (and face the nation’s best backup even if they chase the starter). It doesn’t look good for Lake Superior State.

4) No. 15 Bemidji State
NHL Prospects: None

Priority Free Agents: G Zach Driscoll

A semifinal win for Bemidji State over Lake State in the WCHA Tournament likely would have swapped the two teams’ seeds in the NCAA Tournament – though it matters little when the opponents are equally as dangerous. The only team in the tournament without an NHL prospect has to go up against a team with many, including two of the highest-profile names in college hockey. Bemidji had a good season, but after facing only WCHA competition it is difficult to assume they are ready to take on a powerhouse like Wisconsin, especially when neither their offense nor defense placed among the top 16 in the country even with a light schedule. It would be a stunning upset to see the Beavers take down the Badgers.

Detroit Red Wings Sign Seth Barton

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The Detroit Red Wings have inked one of their collegiate prospects, signing Seth Barton to a two-year entry-level contract. The deal will begin with the 2021-22 season, meaning Barton cannot play for Detroit down the stretch this year.

Coming off his junior season with UMass-Lowell, the 21-year-old Barton is ready to take the next step into professional hockey. Originally selected 81st overall in 2018 he has been a competent two-way defender for the River Hawks for some time now and scored 11 points in 20 games this season.

As the release notes, Barton was selected with the third-round pick the Red Wings received in a trade for Petr Mrazek. That’s a trade the Philadelphia Flyers would certainly not do again, given how poor Mrazek played for them down the stretch in 2017-18. The Flyers actually let the goaltender go without a qualifying offer, meaning that draft pick was spent on almost nothing. Now, as he enters the Red Wings development system, Barton has a chance to show exactly what the Flyers and every other team missed by letting him fall to the end of the third round.

2021 NCAA Tournament Preview: West Regional

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After an odd season played almost exclusively in-conference, the best of college hockey are finally about to collide. The 2021 NCAA Tournament is set to kick off on Friday, and by Sunday the 16-team field will be down to just four, the Frozen Four. Those teams will then meet next on April 8, with the champion being crowned on April 10. In a single-elimination, do-or-die tournament, the stakes are always high. In a season where almost no one has had the chance to face the top teams outside of their own conference, the bar has been raised even further.

Here is a look at the group in the West Regional, hosted in Loveland, Colorado. No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3 take place on Saturday, followed by the winners playing on Sunday for the chance to advance:

1)  No. 2 Minnesota
NHL Prospects:
D Ryan Johnson, Buffalo Sabres (R1, 2019)
D Jackson LaCombe, Anaheim Ducks (R2, 2019)
D Brock Faber, Los Angeles Kings (R2, 2020)
G Jack LaFontaine, Carolina Hurricanes (R3, 2016)
F Sampo Ranta, Colorado Avalanche (R3, 2018)
F Blake McLaughlin, Anaheim Ducks (R3, 2018)
F Scott Reedy, San Jose Sharks (R4, 2017)
F Jack Perbix, Anaheim Ducks (R4, 2018)
D Mike Koster, Toronto Maple Leafs (R5, 2019)
D Ben Brinkman, Dallas Stars (R6, 2019)
G Jared Moe, Winnipeg Jets (R6, 2018)
F Bryce Brodzinski, Philadelphia Flyers (R7, 2019)
F Sammy Walker, Tampa Bay Lightning (R7, 2017)
D Robbie Stucker, Columbus Blue Jackets (R7, 2017)

Priority Free Agents: F Ben Meyers

A historic program that has missed three of the past four NCAA Tournaments and hasn’t won a National Championship since 2003, Minnesota is ready to re-assert themselves as one the best in college hockey. The Gophers have more NHL draft picks on their roster than any other team and it shows in their impressive depth at every position, including six 20+ point players. The No. 4-ranked offense and No.-2 ranked defense in the country combine to make Minnesota a dangerous and well-rounded contender. They likely didn’t expect or wish to potentially face Minnesota State, the only team in the NCAA with a greater scoring differential, but the Gophers are still the team to beat in the West by a wide margin. The real question is whether they have enough high-end talent to take down the other big names that could be waiting in the Frozen Four.

2) No. 6 Minnesota State
NHL Prospects:
D Nathan Smith, Winnipeg Jets (R3, 2018)
D Todd Burgess, Ottawa Senators (R4, 2016)

Priority Free Agents: D Akito Hirose, G Dryden McKay, F Julian Napravnik

Built very differently from their in-state counterparts, the Mavericks of Mankato are nevertheless a scary opposition. With the nation’s top defense paired with a top-ten offense, Minnesota State led the NCAA with a 2.62 average scoring margin. An experienced, conservative team backed up by stellar goaltending, Minnesota State beats up on its WCHA opponents year after year, fine tuning its structure in anticipation of superior competition in the NCAA Tournament. It has become a near-fool proof strategy for the team, provided they win their conference tournament. That didn’t happen this year and Minnesota State likely lost a No. 1 seed as a result. They get relatively lucky with Quinnipiac in the first round – not a pushover but a team with an even less impressive resume than Mankato’s this season – but facing Minnesota to get through to the Frozen Four is a daunting task.

3) No. 10 Quinnipiac
NHL Prospects:
F Ty Smilanic, Florida Panthers (R3, 2020)
G Keith Petruzelli, Detroit Red Wings (R3, 2017)
F Skyler Brind’Amour, Edmonton Oilers (R6, 2017)
D Peter DiLiberatore, Vegas Golden Knights (R6, 2018)

Priority Free Agents: F Odeen Tufto 

Technically, it took a positive COVID test from the stunning ECAC Champions St. Lawrence to guarantee Quinnipiac a spot in the NCAA Tournament this year as the replacement auto-qualifier. However, Quinnipiac was undeniably the best team in their conference this year and may have made the tournament anyway. Yet, the ECAC in 2020-21 was not the typical quality of the conference. With the Ivy League schools, Union, and RIT all opting out of the season, the ECAC was composed of just Quinnipiac, Clarkson, St. Lawrence, and Colgate, the latter two of which are perennially at the bottom of the conference standings. COVID also knocked Clarkson out of the ECAC tournament, eliminating yet another roadblock for Quinnipiac. The team has some talented players, but there really is no way of knowing what to expect from a largely untested Bobcats squad this year.

4) No. 12 Nebraska-Omaha
NHL Prospects:
D Jonny Tychonick, Ottawa Senators (R2, 2018)
F Tyler Weiss, Colorado Avalanche (R4, 2018)
G Isaiah Saville, Vegas Golden Knights (R5, 2019)

Priority Free Agents: F Chayse Primeau, D Brandon Scanlin

A true bubble team this year, Omaha’s one-and-done NCHC Tournament looked like it might doom their national title hopes, but they snuck into the national tournament somehow. Their reward? A much deeper and more talented Minnesota team in the first round. While Omaha is by no means the easiest first-round opponent, they do have some holes, namely inconsistent secondary scoring and defensive play and so-so goaltending. UNO will have to shake off their poor conference tournament, ride their top scorers, and hope for the best on the back end if they want to upset the Gophers.

National ranks courtesy of the March 22 USA Today/USA Hockey Magazine Men’s College Hockey Poll

Snapshots: Ducks, Deadline, Hughes

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The Anaheim Ducks seem like they should be obvious sellers at the upcoming trade deadline, given their place at the bottom of the West Division standings. The team is 9-17-6 and has allowed the third-most goals against in the entire league. Their -39 goal differential through 32 games tracks ahead of only the Buffalo Sabres (-40) and the Ottawa Senators (-43), two teams that have no hope of contending for a playoff spot this season. Despite all that, Ducks GM Bob Murray explains to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic that things are still extremely quiet, implying that the deadline might not be very busy for Anaheim.

As LeBrun writes, the Ducks do not hold many pure rental players–that is those who will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season. Instead, most of their biggest trade chips have some term left, meaning they could be dealt in the offseason instead when the market is a bit more flexible. Once again, LeBrun suggests Rickard Rakell as the best “hockey deal” the Ducks could make, with Murray agreeing that the veteran winger would be more appealing to contenders now than in the summer, giving them two playoff runs.

  • It’s not just in Anaheim that things are quiet. As Dan Rosen of NHL.com writes, many teams around the league still haven’t determined the best way to attack a deadline that is clouded by the shadow of quarantine protocols and a flat salary cap. Rosen writes that the cost for the top rentals—of which he suggests Taylor Hall, Eric Staal, Kyle Palmieri and even Ryan Getzlaf are among—is expected to be high. Names like Mattias Ekholm and Filip Forsberg with term attached will cost even more. This seems to go against the prevailing thought process that supply may be higher than demand at this year’s deadline given how few teams can take on cap or salary. Perhaps even then the allure of a Stanley Cup run will drive prices up, allowing the bottom teams to cash in on a few assets with their feet already out of the door.
  • Terrible news for top 2021 draft pick Luke Hughes, whose season is over after suffering a lower-body injury last week according to Corey Pronman of The Athletic. That means the star defenseman will miss the All-American Prospects Game and U18 World Championships in April, both events that are expected to have huge ramifications on draft boards this summer. Pronman does write that Hughes is expected to be back skating by the summer, which makes him a candidate for the U.S. World Junior camp.

Trade Deadline Primer: Edmonton Oilers

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Although we’re just two months into the season, the trade deadline is already less than a month away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Edmonton Oilers.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle standing between the Edmonton Oilers and their longest playoff run in the Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl era is not their North Division competition, but their lack of cap space. The Oilers are ready to be all-out buyers and compete for a Stanley Cup, but they lack the cap space to do much at all. They are already using Long Term Injured Reserve space and even most of that is already chewed up. Any trade will either have to see salary go the other way or be paired with another transaction to shed salary.

The Oilers have been bold in their waivers decisions this year, placing the likes of James Neal, Alex Chiasson, and Jujhar Khaira among others on the wire. Neal will require waivers again after two more games played, but is not a realistic waiver claim candidate anyhow. Plus, Neal’s off-roster status is currently reflected in their still-lacking cap space. Chiasson and Khaira though would require waivers again to be moved off the roster and there is reason to be believe that the Oilers may not risk it a second time. Could Zack Kassian be the next name they take a chance with? Signed to a long-term contract with a significant amount of salary, Kassian is probably unlikely to be claimed and could open up some space. He appears to have lost his top-six role and may be worth the risk.

The fact that a contender must consider risking their starting players on waivers to open up enough space to add different starting players just shows the dire cap situation in Edmonton. Add in the team’s lack of 2021 draft picks and an organizational philosophy that has been opposed to trading top prospects and it may be difficult for the Oilers to make a big move. With that said, they will find a way to make some sort of addition or two.

Record

20-13-0, .606, 3rd in North Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$0MM in full-season space (LTIR), 1/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: EDM 1st, EDM 4th, EDM 6th, PIT 6th, EDM 7th
2022: EDM 1st, EDM 2nd, EDM 3rd, EDM 4th, EDM 5th, EDM 6th, EDM 7th

Trade Chips

The Oilers’ best chance at adding an impact forward to their roster is by moving out salary to offset the addition. Although the Edmonton blue line may not seem like a top unit in the NHL, they are very deep which could make a roster defenseman expendable. Especially considering the impending Expansion Draft, which could cost the Oilers a young roster defenseman anyhow, there is some added incentive to deal from the blue line. 23-year-old Ethan Bear, who was trending upward heading into this season, has hit a wall in his development instead, recording just three points thus far, seeing a career low in ice time, and even sitting a few games as a healthy scratch. Bear still undoubtedly has value and could be the Oilers’ top trade chip, if they’re willing to move him. Competing for the No. 6 defenseman role for Edmonton this year has been William Lagesson, 25, and Caleb Jones, 23, who like Bear will each be restricted free agents after the 2021-22 season and are eligible for selection in the Expansion Draft. While Jones may have more upside, Lagesson has been the preferred player of the coaching staff due to his superior defense, even recently playing a top-four role. Jones’ contract is also slightly more expensive, which could be considered. Assuming the Oilers use the 7-3 protection scheme in the Expansion Draft and Darnell Nurse and Oscar Klefbom (though not a lock) are protected, only one of these three young defensemen can join them. However, only one can be selected as well. That works out to one of the trio being expendable in a deadline move, especially with top prospects like Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg pushing up the pipeline as well.

The Oilers don’t have the same depth up front, but as previously mentioned have been willing to take risks on waivers this season to gain cap flexibility. If they feel Chiasson or Kassian are unlikely to clear waivers, they could shop either one to open up space or potentially in a swap. They could also look at moving some of their fringe forward to teams with a greater need for depth beyond their starting group.

Either as a sweetener to move another contract or as part of a return if they’re able to open up cap space, the Oilers will also have to consider moving some of their prospects. Tyler Benson, who has been more talk than walk as a pro prospect for Edmonton, may need a change of scenery after years of being unable to earn a full-time role with the NHL club. Cooper Marody, tearing up the AHL this year and having earned some NHL experience last year, could also be an attractive name. While Bouchard, Broberg, and Dylan Holloway are likely untouchable, would Edmonton consider moving other top prospects like Raphael Lavoie, Ryan McLeod, or Matej Blumel? Would they dip into their deep group of young goaltenders, such as Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells, Olivier Rodrigue, or Ilya Konovalov?

Others to Watch For: D Dmitri Samorukov ($825K, 2022 RFA), D Markus Niemelainen ($817.5K, 2022 RFA), F Gaetan Haas ($915K, UFA), F Patrick Russell ($700K, UFA)

Team Needs

1) Affordable Top-Six Forward – It may seem strange for the Oilers’ biggest need to be at forward. Edmonton is a top-ten team in goals per game, shots per game, and power play efficiency – arguably a top-five offense in hockey. Yet, that offensive production is heavily skewed towards just two players: McDavid and Draisaitl. A quick look at the depth chart also clearly shows that the team lacks quality top-six wingers, with players who should be above-average bottom-six players instead slotted as below-average top-six forwards. McDavid and Draisaitl deserve to have more talent around them, a need that has plagued the Oilers for years. Additionally, Edmonton faces a path to the NHL’s final four this season that goes through Winnipeg, a team with defensive issues, and Toronto, a team with goaltending issues. In a battle of three elite offenses, the North Division is likely to go to the team that can simply outscore the others. Right now, that isn’t Edmonton, but it wouldn’t take much to shift the scales.

The caveat of course is that without some cap gymnastics, the Oilers cannot be players for any of the high-priced forwards on the rental market (or any market for that matter). The focus must be on bargain buys, adding players who can produce at a high level while being paid at a low level. Among rentals, Bobby Ryan, Erik Haula, Carl Soderberg, or old friend Sam Gagner (yet again) could all fit the bill. Among players with an additional year of term, possibly more attractive anyway, Vladislav Namestnikov, Calle Jarnkrok, Rocco Grimaldi, Curtis Lazar, and Colin Blackwell are all intriguing options. If available, L.A.’s Alex Iafallo is likely the very best value addition.

2) Depth Forward – On the off chance that Edmonton has the cap space and a contract slot left, they could make another move and it should again be up front. Depth is key in the postseason and the Oilers simply don’t have it at forward. They could stand to add some playoff experience, defensive ability, and if possible top-six upside in an established veteran forward. While goaltending continues to be a major long-term need of the Oilers, solving that problem in-season given all of the factors working against such deal make it extremely unlikely.

Senators Notes: Goaltending, North Dakota, Trade Deadline

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Senators GM Pierre Dorion spoke on TSN 1200 in Ottawa this morning and addressed many of the most pressing issues facing his team down the stretch this season. And while that won’t include a playoff push, as the Senators hold the NHL’s second-worst record and are well outside of a playoff spot in the North Division, Dorion still stated that he would like to see more consistency out of his roster the rest of the way. The position of greatest concern right now is obviously goaltending. Ottawa is allowing 3.91 goals against per game this season, the worst mark in the league by a wide margin. The Senators’ depth in net appeared to be strong entering the season with newly-acquired starter Matt Murray at the top, promising backup Marcus Hogberg ready for a full-time NHL role, college standout Joey Daccord as next man up, and top prospects Filip Gustavsson and Kevin Mandolese to fall back on as well. Yet, Murray and Hogberg have struggled greatly and the Senators’ goaltending actually improved when the pair were lost to injury, making Daccord the starter by default. However, Daccord is now expected to miss the rest of the season due to an injury of his own. This prompted not only the waiver claim of Anton Forsberg, but also for the team to send a chartered private plane to Winnipeg to pick him up, so as to avoid any quarantine period. Forsberg, who amazingly has not played at any level this season despite being claimed on waivers three times, will start for AHL Belleville on Saturday and is then likely to dress as backup behind Gustavsson on Monday, according to The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch. Gustavsson, who made his NHL debut by providing a shutout third period in relief of Daccord on Wednesday, will make his first start on Monday and he and Forsberg appear likely to split starts until Murray and/or Hogberg are healthy enough to return to action. Dorion considers Murray “week-to-week” and hopes Hogberg will be ready for an AHL conditioning stint before the end of the month.

  • Without anything to play for this season, the stretch run could actually be an exciting time for the Senators as they take a look at some other options in action before next season. That could very well include any number of current members of the University of North Dakota, once their NCAA season comes to an end. Ottawa has spent a number of high draft picks on Fighting Hawks commits in recent years and now the No. 1 team in college hockey is seeking a National Championship, fueled by Senators property. For now, Dorion says that he has informed North Dakota forward Shane Pinto and defensemen Jacob Bernard-Docker, Jake Sanderson, and Tyler Kleven to simply focus on their pursuit of a title and worry about their pro futures later. However, once the postseason has ended for North Dakota – as early as next weekend or as late as April 10 – Dorion could sign any of the group and insert them into the Senators lineup right away. He specifically called Pinto, Bernard-Docker, and Sanderson “close” in terms of their pro readiness. Bernard-Docker, a junior, and Pinto, a sophomore, are more likely to sign this year than Sanderson, a freshman, even though he was the No. 5 overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft. Beyond the North Dakota players that Ottawa already owns, their link to the program and the immediate opportunity available could give them a leg up in wooing a pair of the very best college free agents available. Seniors Matt Kiersted and Jordan Kawaguchi are certainly on the Senators’ radar and could be intrigued by joining the Ottawa rebuild. Dorion did not address the immediate pro future of North Dakota transfer Jonny Tychonick, another talented draft pick whose University of Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks are also hoping to make the NCAA Tournament.
  • As for players that could be leaving the Senators before the end of the season, Dorion opined that this could be a very quiet trade deadline for his team, a sentiment that many other teams have echoed. In a buyer’s market that is influenced by difficult salary cap situations and border restrictions, there is a feeling that there might not be much action before the April 12 deadline. Dorion claims that teams are “checking in” but there apparently hasn’t been much traction on forming actual deals. The Senators are not in a great position to trade this season anyhow. Recently re-acquired winger Ryan Dzingel is their most valuable rental piece, but may not even be available if there is mutual interest in an extension. Dzingel has already re-discovered his scoring touch back in Ottawa, notching four goals in eight games. Expensive and unproductive veterans Artem Anisimov and Erik Gudbranson, depth defensemen Mike Reilly and Braydon Coburn, and grinders Matthew Peca and Micheal Haley are the only other expiring contracts the Senators have and lack much, if any value. It could be a quiet deadline indeed in Ottawa barring a surprise move.

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