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Trade Deadline Primer: New York Islanders

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We are now just two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the New York Islanders.

The New York Islanders, perpetual underdogs, are again delivering an excellent season. Picked by many before the season to miss the playoffs in a loaded East Division, the Islanders have outplayed their competitors for much of the season. A top-five team in goals against average and shots against per game, the Isles have again bought in to head coach Barry Trotz’ conservative, smothering style and are frustrating opponents left and right.

With that said, New York does not have a top-class offense, and that was even before the season-ending injury to captain Anders Lee. The Islanders are just a middle-of-the pack team in terms of scoring and are below average on the power play. As a side effect of the system, they do not put a lot of shots on net and have few odd-man rushes. Simply, they need to make their scoring chances count and without Lee that becomes more difficult. The Islanders have won just five of their past nine games since their leading goal-scorer went down and have slipped into a tie with the Pittsburgh Penguins in second in the division. In terms of points percentage, New York is closer to the Boston Bruins in fourth (who have many more game in hand) than they are to the Washington Capitals in first. The Islanders are unlikely to fall out of the playoff picture completely, but to stay near the top they desperately need to add offense.

Record

22-10-4, .667, T-2nd in East Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$0MM in full-season space (LTIR, $6.53MM unused), 0/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NYI 1st, COL 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th
2022: NYI 1st, NYI 2nd, COL 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th

Trade Chips

Like many contenders, the Islanders don’t have the strongest pipeline to lean on. However, likely looking to add just one rental forward in a buyer’s market, they shouldn’t have to offer up any of their few elite prospects to get the job done. So fear not Isles fans, Oliver Wahlstrom and Noah Dobson aren’t going anywhere.

Kieffer Bellows is likely the name that will be heard most often as being linked to outgoing Islanders’ packages. A polarizing, but promising prospect, Bellows hasn’t found the success in the NHL that was expected of a first-round pick and World Juniors standout, but he could benefit from playing in a different system. The 22-year-old may very well be selected by the Seattle Kraken in this summer’s Expansion Draft if he is still on the roster and not protected, so the Islanders might be looking to deal him rather than risk losing him for nothing.

The Islanders also have an organization depth chart chock full of young defenseman that they could offer up in a deadline deal. Bode Wilde will be the player most suitors ask about, but the team will try to steer them away from the talented righty. Sebastian Aho and Grant Hutton are NHL-ready assets who don’t necessarily have a full-time spot waiting for them in New York next season, making them expendable, while Robin Salo and Samuel Bolduc are younger options with intriguing upside.

Others to Watch For: F Ross Johnston ($1MM, 2022 UFA), F Michael Dal Colle ($700K, RFA), F Otto Koivula ($787K, RFA), D Parker Wotherspoon ($725K, 2022 RFA), G Jakub Skarek ($764K, 2023 RFA)

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Winger – GM Lou Lamoriello will have his sights set on one thing and one thing only at the deadline: a Lee replacement. While the captain’s locker room leadership and even his two-way effort and IQ likely cannot be found on the market, the Islanders need to find someone who can take up his knack for scoring goals. The team relies on efficiency on offense and are now missing their most reliable scorer. They are solid down the middle and have plenty of other talented wingers, but no one who isn’t already playing in the top-six can reliably fill Lee’s shoes. With up to $7MM in cap space to use with Lee on Long-Term Injured Reserve, nearly any rental winger can fit under the cap. Buffalo’s Taylor Hall, the lone exception, could be had with some retention involved, but New Jersey’s Kyle Palmieri or Nashville’s Mikael Granlund would fit nicely under the cap. If the Islanders can’t manage to land one of those top options, dark horse candidates could include Chicago’s Mattias Janmark, who is scoring goals at a torrid clip this year, Vancouver’s Tanner Pearson, if healthy, or another New Jersey option, Nikita Gusev. 

2) Goaltender – Being the shrewd veteran executive that he is, don’t be surprised to see Lamoriello look at solving an Expansion crisis ahead of the deadline as well. With young Ilya Sorokin exempt from the draft and Cory Schneider headed for free agency, the Islanders do not currently have the necessary goalie to expose to Seattle assuming they protect starter Semyon Varlamov, unless they  extend the 35-year-old Schneider that is. Instead, look for the team to add a keeper with term on his contract or heading for restricted free agency. The team could kill two birds with one stone if they make can find a dependable addition; having a fourth-string for the playoffs and a third-string to replace Schneider next year would be a wise move.

Snapshots: Bowman, Kiersted, OHL

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As expected, accomplished Chicago Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman will be the next leader of Team USA. Sportsnet’s Frank Seravalli reports that USA Hockey has scheduled a press conference for Wednesday where they will officially name Bowman as the GM for the U.S. entry into the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Given the NHL’s absence at the most recent Olympics paired with the quality of American players who have blossomed into superstars over the past eight years, expectations are high for Team USA. A two-time Stanley Cup winning GM, whose current rebuild seems to be moving along nicely as well, Bowman has found great success in his career and appears ready for the challenge. With a familiar face in Chicago icon Patrick Kane leading the way, Bowman’s Team USA could be legitimate contenders for gold. He won’t be alone in the decision-making, either; Seravalli notes that Minnesota Wild GM Bill Guerin will be named an assistant of Bowman’s as well. Nashville’s David Poile and Carolina’s Don Waddell are also likely to be considered for the brain trust, among others.

  • North Dakota defenseman Matt Kiersted, considered by many to be the top college free agent available this year, is already having to chip away at his list of suitors. The Athletic’s Michael Russo reports that 20+ NHL clubs have already shown interest in the dependable puck-mover, and he has begun to whittle that down to a “workable” number. What criteria Kiersted is using to choose between what are virtually identical entry-level offers is unknown and there has been few whispers of which teams might remain in the running. However, Russo notes that the Elk River, Minnesota native will definitely keep his hometown Minnesota Wild in consideration. Russo adds that the impending Expansion Draft could strip the Wild of one of their starting defensemen and there could be NHL opportunity right away for the local product. Among other likely landing spots, it is hard to ignore the immense North Dakota presence in the Ottawa Senators’ pipeline, which could link the team to Kiersted and fellow premiere UFA Jordan Kawaguchi.
  • The OHL’s shortened season is expected to begin soon and teams would prefer that their players return as soon as possible. However, the league has yet to set a firm date, seemingly dragging its feet with actually opening up play as opposed to merely discussing it. This is posing quite a conundrum for some top prospects, writes Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. Many top junior-age draft picks in recent years have been playing in the AHL this season with the OHL out of commission. This includes Washington’s Connor McMichael, Los Angeles’s Quinton Byfield, Montreal’s Jan Mysak and Carolina’s Ryan Suzuki, while Anaheim’s Jamie Drysdale would have to stay put with the Ducks. Per the CHL Transfer Agreement, these players must return to the OHL once the season begins if they are not on NHL rosters. However, without a solid start date and facing a quarantine period, it is a difficult ask to suggest that these talented young players leave their AHL clubs and head for the unknown. McMichael has been outspoken on the subject, stating “I honestly want to stay here and just play pro hockey. I think it would be best for my development” and Friedman feels the others likely share in that sentiment. Will there be an exception made to allow this group to stay put to close out the season? Or will they be forced to take yet another break from hockey to quarantine only to return to a junior game that they have outgrown?

Trade Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Nashville Predators.

The Nashville Predators are sellers. In fact, the Predators being ready to gut their roster has been one of the more talked-about storylines of the 2020-21 season. Ask any media personality in hockey and they will say that Nashville is shopping this guy and listening on that guy. It seems that almost anyone on the roster could be available as the Predators have been labeled as disappointments.

Yet, hidden behind the headlines, the outrage level likely isn’t that high internally in Nashville. Quietly, the team is actually playing quite well of late. Since Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman proclaimed last month that there were only three untouchables on the entire Nashville roster, the team has gone 10-7-1 including four wins in a row and wins in six of their past seven. The team is up to .500 on the season and that could be enough to sneak into the postseason in the Central Division’s final spot. In their history, the Predators have never really torn apart their roster and restarted and it seems unlikely that they have the proper motivation to do so now.

With that said, this is still not where the 2017 Western Conference Champions thought they would be at this point in time. The season results have gotten worse each year since their Stanley Cup Final appearance: a second-round exit in 2018, a first-round loss in 2019, and a failure to even advance beyond the qualifying round last year. Now, there is a real possibility that the Predators could miss the playoffs entirely this season. A team loaded with depth and numerous talented veterans, Nashville should be better and it is somewhat inexplicable why they aren’t. As a result, there needs to be a shake-up. However, given the recent improvements, the Predators’ approach to the deadline is likely to be less fire sale and more strategic dealing, especially in a buyer’s market.

Record

17-17-1, .500, T-5th in Central Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$2.46MM in full-season space ($10.97MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, COL 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th
2022: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 7th

Trade Chips

It is probably easier to start with the players who aren’t for sale. As Friedman noted back in February, that definitely includes career Predator goaltender Pekka Rinne, who is in the last year of his contract and quite possibly his career and is being honored with the ability to go out on his own terms (and a No-Movement Clause helps). It also included cornerstone defensemen Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. At the time, this was the extent of Friedman’s list. He even noted that young defender Dante Fabbro or top scorer Filip Forsberg could be available at the right price. Now, that is almost certainly not the case. Friedman has also since flipped on Ellis’ availability, but he should be safe. Nashville also has no reason to trade young impact players, such as off-season acquisition Luke Kunin, recent first-round pick Eeli Tolvanen, collegiate standouts Rem Pitlick and Jeremy Davies, and impressive goaltender Juuse Saros.

Beyond that group, it probably isn’t a stretch to say that GM David Poile will at least listen to offers for anyone else on the roster. Part of that is due to the Predators’ current situation and the slim likelihood that they can contend this season, even if they do sneak into the playoffs in a top-heavy Central Division. This means that they receive no benefit from hanging on to their impending unrestricted free agents. Mikael Granlund is the top trade chip among this group. The skilled forward was a late off-season signing and somewhat of an afterthought heading into the season, but leads all Nashville forwards in time on ice, proving himself to be an invaluable piece. Other teams have taken notice as well, as Granlund’s name has been floated on the rumor mill more than a few times and has been linked to several contenders. Another late off-season addition, Erik Haula will also be for sale. A similarly versatile forward to Granlund, Haula hasn’t made as much of an impact but has previously proven to be an asset in the right system. Among other expiring contracts, veterans Brad Richardson and Luca Sbisa, if healthy by the deadline, could draw some interest at a cheap price point. Despite their recent success, the Predators only reason for not trading any of these potential rentals would be if they had interest in an extension and only Granlund, their most valuable piece, would conceivably fit the bill.

The other reason why Poile is open to moving other players off his roster, those with term on their contracts, is partially due to the impending Expansion Draft. Whether the Predators choose to use the standard 7-3 protection scheme or instead choose the 8-skater scheme in order to protect Mattias Ekholm, they will be exposing key players either way. Ironically, the Predators’ impressive depth on paper is not doing much to help them this season but will hurt them in expansion. Ekholm is at the top of most trade boards as a name likely to move before the deadline. The Seattle Kraken would not hesitate to claim him if he was to be left exposed in the draft and the Predators will not give him up for free when he can command a strong return on the trade market as a balanced, two-way defenseman with an affordable contract and a reliable top-four track record. Yet, even if Ekholm is traded and the Predators can protect three defensemen and seven forwards, they still face liability up front. Nashville simply has too many valuable names at forward, even if many are underachieving. Are they really ready to let expensive, underwhelming former stars like Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene go for free? Could they really leave career Predators like Calle Jarnkrok or Colton Sissons exposed? And they also need to consider protecting younger names like Pitlick an Yakov Trenin who could be looked upon to take on larger roles moving forward. There are simply too many names in Nashville for a valuable player not to be left exposed, so why not listen to trade offers instead. Moving Johansen or Duchene this season is unlikely due to cap implications, but Jarnkrok, Sissons, Rocco Grimaldi, and Nick Cousins are all for sale at the right price. The difference between last month’s mindset and the current strategy is likely that only one or two of the aforementioned players are likely to go, rather than the whole lot in a fire sale.

The x-factor for Nashville at the deadline is forward Viktor Arvidsson. By no means does the team have to trade the talented winger, who will have a safe spot on their protection list come Expansion Draft time if he is still on the roster. However, Arvidsson has been in decline for two seasons now – an unexpected regression for a 27-year-old. Arvidsson is still relied upon to play a key top-six role for Nashville, but is failing to produce like he did as a back-to-back 61-point player just a few years ago. On one hand, the Predators would be selling low on the skilled forward, who should still have plenty left in the tank. On the other hand, moving Arvidsson if they are happy with an offer could be the reality check that the team desperately needs. If the trade market remains underwhelming though, as many expect, it is more likely that Arvidsson stays put for now. Trading him at his lowest point while the team is finally gaining traction is not the shake up they need.

Others to Watch For: D Mark Borowiecki ($2MM, 2022 UFA), D Matt Benning ($1MM, 2022 UFA), G Kasimir Kaskisuo ($700K, UFA), D Ben Harpur ($700K, RFA), F Michael McCarron ($700K, RFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – Despite several years in a row of regular season success, the Predators have managed to build themselves a nice pipeline of talent. At every position, they have multiple players who project to be good NHLers. The problem with their current pipeline is that it is getting a little old. Some of their best prospects are already in the pros, bouncing between the NHL and AHL or locked into contracts overseas. Many others are collegiate players on the older side for prospects. Nashville needs some fresh blood and the best way to do that is to add draft picks. Though they have their full complement of draft picks this year (minus a seventh-rounder), draft pick packages will be the way to go as they move on from current roster players.

2) Top-Four Left-Handed Prospect Defenseman – If available, the one area that Nashville could target a specific player rather than load up on draft picks is at left defense. With Ekholm looking like his time in Nashville is winding down and some concern over whether Boston University defenseman David Farrance will sign with the team or instead opt for free agency, there could be a major hole in the top-four at LHD. The Predators have the cap space to find a capable free agent stopgap, but could use a long-term plan. Young pros Fabbro, Alexandre Carrier, and Frederic Allard are all right-handed and Davies looks like a solid NHLer but is already 24 and lacks top-pair upside. In the pipeline, Marc Del Gaizo is an intriguing prospect but more likely a bottom-pair defender. No one else even projects to be an NHLer. The Predators need to reload on the blue line, and can do that through the draft, but if a top young left-handed defense prospect is offered up, they would be wise to consider. To a lesser extent, center is also a position that could become a need sooner rather than later in Nashville as many of the Predators’ top forward prospects are not necessarily projected to play center at the top level. A natural pivot with top-six upside would be a nice addition, but isn’t as pressing as left defense and could be more easily found where the team expects to pick in the first round of the 2021 NHL Draft.

Raphael Lavoie, Phil Kemp Assigned To AHL

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The Edmonton Oilers are bringing back a pair of prospects, assigning Raphael Lavoie and Phil Kemp to the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL. The two played this season with Vasby IK in Sweden’s second league in order to make sure they didn’t miss a year of development.

Lavoie, 20, dominated the league, registering 45 points in 51 games to lead his club and finish 12th overall in scoring. The 38th overall pick in 2018, Lavoie is a big frame that has shown an ability to score everywhere he’s played, racking up goals with his impressive shot off the rush and power in front of the net. After an outstanding year overseas, he’ll try to take the next step into North American professional hockey and continue his development.

Kemp, 22, is certainly a bit of a different story. Selected 208th overall in 2017, the big defenseman spent three years playing for Yale and was headed for a fourth before the school’s hockey program shut down for the year. Instead, Kemp signed his entry-level contract with the Oilers last November and then was shipped overseas to get ice time and his first taste of the professional scene.

Even after a relatively successful season in Sweden, Kemp still doesn’t have the kind of upside that someone like Lavoie possesses and will have to scratch and claw for every opportunity in his career. The steady, 6’3″ defender is an interesting piece to keep an eye on in Edmonton though, given the other more offensive blue line talents the team has in their pipeline. Perhaps Kemp can be a counterpoint to someone like Evan Bouchard, taking on the heavy defensive and penalty-killing minutes.

2021 NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Regional

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March 26: Just like Notre Dame yesterday, Michigan has now been forced to withdraw from the tournament due to multiple positive COVID tests. Minnesota-Duluth will advance in a “no-contest.”

March 22: After an odd season played almost exclusively in-conference, the best of college hockey are finally about to collide. The 2021 NCAA Tournament is set to kick off on Friday, and by Sunday the 16-team field will be down to just four, the Frozen Four. Those teams will then meet next on April 8, with the champion being crowned on April 10. In a single-elimination, do-or-die tournament, the stakes are always high. In a season where almost no one has had the chance to face the top teams outside of their own conference, the bar has been raised even further.

Here is a look at the group in the Midwest Regional, hosted in Fargo, North Dakota. No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3 take place on Friday, followed by the winners playing on Saturday for the chance to advance:

1)  No. 1 North Dakota
NHL Prospects:
D Jake Sanderson, Ottawa Senators (R1, 2020)
D Jacob Bernard-Docker, Ottawa Senators (R1, 2018)
F Shane Pinto, Ottawa Senators (R2, 2019)
D Tyler Kleven, Ottawa Senators (R2, 2020)
F Grant Mismash, Nashville Predators (R2, 2017)
F Jasper Weatherby, San Jose Sharks (R4, 2018)
D Cooper Moore, Detroit Red Wings (R5, 2019)
F Harrison Blaisdell, Winnipeg Jets (R5, 2019)
F Judd Caulfield, Pittsburgh Penguins (R5, 2019)
G Peter Thome, Columbus Blue Jackets (R6, 2016)
F Collin Adams, New York Islanders (R6, 2016)
F Gavin Hain, Philadelphia Flyers (R6, 2018)

Priority Free Agents: F Jordan Kawaguchi, D Matt Kiersted, G Adam Scheel

The talent of the Fighting Hawks is obvious, on paper and in their results. The top team in the nation was third in goals per game and sixth in goals against per game, competing against the elite competition of the NCHC. Even though Fargo looks to be the most difficult region, North Dakota should be the favorite to survive and ultimately to win the entire tournament. They almost certainly won’t get another chance with this core of top prospects, a group of high NHL draft picks and several undrafted veterans bound for the pros as well.

2) No. 9 Minnesota-Duluth
NHL Prospects:
D Wyatt Kaiser, Chicago Blackhawks (R3, 2020)
D Matt Kairns, Edmonton Oilers (R3, 2016)
F Quinn Olson, Boston Bruins (R3, 2019)
F Blake Biondi, Montreal Canadiens (R4, 2020)
F Noah Cates, Philadelphia Flyers (R5, 2018)
F Cole Koepke, Tampa Bay Lightning (R6, 2018)
F Luke Loheit, Ottawa Senators (R7, 2018)
F Nick Swaney, Minnesota Wild (R7, 2017)

Priority Free Agents: F Jackson Cates

Still the reigning NCAA champs, after last season’s tournament was canceled, the Bulldogs have appeared in each of the last three finals and have won the past two. They can’t be counted out, even if they don’t quite have the talent level that they used to. They are still a top-ten team in scoring defense and are tough to play against. However, UMD undoubtedly draws the toughest first-round matchup of any higher seed in Michigan – as evidenced by the national poll ranking the “underdog” above them. They would then have to beat NCHC rival North Dakota to move on.

3) No. 8 Michigan
NHL Prospects:
D Cam York, Philadelphia Flyers (R1, 2019)
F Brendan Brisson, Vegas Golden Knights (R1, 2020)
F Johnny Beecher, Boston Bruins (R1, 2019)
F Thomas Bordeleau, San Jose Sharks (R2, 2020)
G Erik Portillo, Buffalo Sabres (R3, 2019)
F Jack Becker, Boston Bruins (R7, 2015)
F Eric Ciccolini, New York Rangers (R7, 2019)

Top 2021 NHL Draft Prospects: D Owen Power, F Matthew Beniers, F Kent Johnson
Priority Free Agents: G Strauss Mann

The Wolverines entered the season with high expectations and have remained one of the most talked-about teams in college hockey all year. Not only does the Big Ten powerhouse already sport three already-drafted NHL first-rounders, but they will add three more this summer – potentially even three top-ten picks. The immense skill among Michigan’s young players, combined with a stingy defense and solid goaltending, makes them a dangerous team and a dark horse to upset two top teams in Minnesota-Duluth and North Dakota. Inexperience could be the major hurdle standing in their way.

4) No. 14 American International
NHL Prospects: G Jake Kucharski, Carolina Hurricanes (R7, 2018)

AIC has established themselves as the top dog in Atlantic Hockey over the past few years, but were never considered a threat as an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament, still needing to earn the automatic qualification of a conference tournament win. While the situation never arose this year, there was beginning to be some push for AIC to potentially get into the national tourney this year even if they hadn’t won the Atlantic. The program is moving in the right direction. With that said, they are saddled with three elite teams in their region and it is very hard to see them winning their first game, nevertheless both needed to advance.

National ranks courtesy of the March 22 USA Today/USA Hockey Magazine Men’s College Hockey Poll

2021 NCAA Tournament Preview: Northeast Regional

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March 25: Due to COVID-19 protocols, Notre Dame will not be taking part in the tournament. Boston College will get a “no-contest” advancement to the next round instead of playing the scheduled game on Saturday. This means the season is over for Notre Dame’s NHL prospects, who can now decide whether or not to sign a professional contract.

March 24: After an odd season played almost exclusively in-conference, the best of college hockey are finally about to collide. The 2021 NCAA Tournament is set to kick off on Friday, and by Sunday the 16-team field will be down to just four, the Frozen Four. Those teams will then meet next on April 8, with the champion being crowned on April 10. In a single-elimination, do-or-die tournament, the stakes are always high. In a season where almost no one has had the chance to face the top teams outside of their own conference, the bar has been raised even further.

Here is a look at the group in the Northeast Regional, hosted in Albany, New York. No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3 take place on Saturday, followed by the winners playing on Sunday for the chance to advance:

1) No. 3 Boston College
NHL Prospects:
F Matt Boldy, Minnesota Wild (R1, 2019)
G Spencer Knight, Florida Panthers (R1, 2019)
F Alex Newhook, Colorado Avalanche (R1, 2019)
D Drew Helleson, Colorado Avalanche (R2, 2019)
F Jack McBain, Minnesota Wild (R3, 2018)
F Trevor Kuntar, Boston Bruins (R3, 2020)
F Logan Hutsko, Florida Panthers (R3, 2018)
D Jack St. Ivany, Philadelphia Flyers (R4, 2018)
D Eamon Powell, Tampa Bay Lightning (R4, 2020)
F Colby Ambrosio, Colorado Avalanche (R4, 2020)
D Michael Karow, Arizona Coyotes (R5, 2017)
D Marshall Warren, Minnesota Wild (R6, 2019)
F Nikita Nesterenko, Minnesota Wild (R6, 2019)

Priority Free Agents: F Marc McLaughlin, F Mike Hardman

Boston College is always a threat on the national stage and this year is no different. As deep as any team in the NCAA and with one of the best goaltenders in college hockey, the Eagles will be a tough out. Their top-ranked offense is the real x-factor though. While BC could stand on their talented two-way forwards, defense, and goaltending alone – who did combine for the No. 13 ranked scoring defense this season – it is their ability to score at will that makes them incredibly dangerous. The only team in the nation to notch more than four tallies a game, any team hoping to beat BC has to equally match their offense, which means beating the stellar Spencer Knight. Ironically, one of the only teams that has the top-end talent to do just that might be waiting for them in their round two match-up: cross-town mortal foes Boston University and their seventh-ranked offense.

2) No. 7 St. Cloud State
NHL Prospects:
G David Hrenak, Los Angeles Kings (R5, 2018)
F Veeti Miettinen, Toronto Maple Leafs (R6, 2020)
D Nick Perbix, Tampa Bay Lightning (R6, 2017)
F Sam Hentges, Minnesota Wild (R7, 2018)

Priority Free Agents: D Spencer Meier

Everyone in college hockey is hoping to see BC and BU square off, so it’s up to the overshadowed Huskies to play spoiler. While St. Cloud doesn’t have the depth of talent as in years past and doesn’t match up with their Boston counterparts at first glance, the team finds ways to win games. Both their offense and defense ranked outside the top 16 in the NCAA and their goaltending has been fine if not unspectacular. Yet, St. Cloud finished second in the NCHC, arguably the strongest conference in college hockey. Call them overachievers if you like, but slated to play an underachiever in round one, the Huskies could hold off the anticipated upset.

3) No. 11 Boston University
NHL Prospects:
F Jay O’Brien, Philadelphia Flyers (R1, 2018)
D Alex Vlasic, Carolina Hurricanes (R2, 2019)
G Drew Commesso, Chicago Blackhawks (R2, 2020)
F Luke Tuch, Montreal Canadiens (R2, 2020)
F Robert Mastrosimone, Detroit Red Wings (R2, 2019)
F Jake Wise, Chicago Blackhawks (R3, 2018)
F Dylan Peterson, St. Louis Blues (R3, 2020)
D Domenick Fensore, Carolina Hurricanes (R3, 2019)
D David Farrance, Nashville Predators (R3, 2017)
F Ethan Phillips, Detroit Red Wings (R4, 2019)
D Cade Webber, Carolina Hurricanes (R4, 2019)
D Case McCarthy, New Jersey Devils (R4, 2019)
F Logan Cockerill, New York Islanders (R7, 2017)

On paper, the Terriers are again one of the strongest rosters in the NCAA. However, they have been great on paper for several years now and it has not translated into elite regular seasons or postseason success. If everyone on the BU roster plays up to their potential, Boston University could be in for a deep run. Yet, the Frozen Four has eluded the historic program since 2014-15 and there is no reason to believe they will overcome their demons now, especially with hard-working St. Cloud State and hated rival BC standing in their way.

4) Notre Dame
NHL Prospects:
F Landon Slaggert, Chicago Blackhawks (R3, 2020)
D Jake Boltmann, Calgary Flames (R3, 2020)
F Jacob Pivonka, New York Islanders (R4, 2018)
D Spencer Stastney, Nashville Predators (R5, 2018)
F Trevor Janicke, Anaheim Ducks (R5, 2019)
F Ryder Rolston, Colorado Avalanche (R5, 2020)
D Nate Clurman, Colorado Avalanche (R6, 2016)
D Nick Leivermann, Colorado Avalanche (R7, 2017)
D Matt Hellickson, New Jersey Devils (R7, 2017)

Priority Free Agents: F Alex Steeves

The only unranked team selected to the NCAA Tournament, calling Notre Dame’s inclusion in the national field a surprise is an understatement. While the Fighting Irish have plenty of NHL prospect talent and finished fourth in the Big Ten in the regular season, they did not have a winning record against the likes of Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan and were one-and-done in the Big Ten Tournament without having to play any of those three. Their anemic 33rd-ranked offense is also unlikely to frighten elite opponents. Yet, the committee opted for Notre Dame over the likes of Providence, Denver, Bowling Green, or UMass Lowell. The team is not without a chance against Boston College, but they will have to finally find their clutch factor this season and play their very best.

National ranks courtesy of the March 22 USA Today/USA Hockey Magazine Men’s College Hockey Poll

Trade Deadline Primer: Minnesota Wild

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Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Minnesota Wild.

The Minnesota Wild have been one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2020-21 season. Initially believed to be no more than a bubble team in the West Division, not only are the Wild safely within the playoff picture but they are actually well ahead of the rival St. Louis Blues for third place and nipping at the heels of the Colorado Avalanche in second. Minnesota’s season is not just a fluke, either. The long-awaited debut of Kirill Kaprizov has been as advertised, as the young Russian scorer has been one of the league’s most exciting players and has added a legitimate weapon to a team that has long lacked one. With other young players taking a step forward this season, off-season veteran additions solidifying the forward corps, the trade acquisition of Ian Cole rounding out a solid blue line, and a new tandem excelling in net, the Wild are the real deal. In fact, they don’t have many holes.

Well, except one massive, gaping hole. The Minnesota power play is an assault on the eyes. Unorganized and ineffective, it seems almost impossible that such a capable, composed even-strength team can be so bad on the man advantage. At 10%, the Wild’s power play is the worst in the league and no other team currently in playoff position is within nine spots – or 8.9% – of being as bad. While their No. 15-ranked offense is nothing to complain about, it can certainly be improved. With no issues defensively or in goal, as evidenced by strong goals against and penalty kill numbers, and no lack of veteran experience, an offensive weapon with power play ability is really the only focus. With just enough cap space to make one notable addition, it seems a top-six forward who excels man-up will be the Wild’s target and may just be enough to put them over the top.

Record

20-10-1, .661, 3rd in West Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$232.2K in full-season space ($1.04MM at the trade deadline), 1/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: MIN 1st, PIT 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN, 3rd, PIT 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th, MIN 7th
2022: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, SJS 5th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th

Trade Chips

While the Wild are enjoying a great season, GM Bill Guerin is not going to get ahead of himself. Sure, his team could make a run this year, but with some long-term questions still to be answered, such as the team’s future down the middle and the potential impact of the Expansion Draft on his deep lineup, Guerin isn’t going to mortgage the future – and possible years of sustained success – to hope for a Stanley Cup this year. As a result, don’t expect any of Minnesota’s young roster players to be on the market, nor top prospects like Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy, or Calen Addison. 

Instead, Minnesota will deal from a nice stockpile of draft picks and try to peddle their top young AHLers and their second tier of prospects. Especially if the goal at the deadline is to add a top-six player with term, a center in particular being the biggest need, young forward prospects such as Alex Khovanov, Marat Khusnutdinov, Adam Beckman, and Damien Giroux could be appealing targets for sellers. Collegiate property Vladislav Firstov, Jack McBain, Nikita Nesterenko and Sam Hentges will also draw interest, especially with the latter three still playing in the NCAA Tournament.

On the back end, there are some questions moving forward in terms of the potential impact of expansion, so the team could be more hesitant to deal top blue line prospects. However, for the right player the Wild may part with Ryan O’Rourke or Filip Johansson. 

With the emergence of Kaapo Kahkonen as the apparent starter of the future, Minnesota may also be open to moving their goalie prospects and they own two desirable names in first-year pro Hunter Jones and NCAA star Filip Lindberg. 

Others to Watch For: F Mitchell Chaffee ($925K, 2022 RFA), F Will Bitten ($805K, 2022 RFA), F Mason Shaw ($792.5K, 2022 RFA), F Ivan Lodnia ($747.5K, 2023 RFA), D Daemon Hunt (Draft Rights)

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Forward/Power Play Specialist – The Wild’s cap situation looks a little bleak right now, but CapFriendly’s numbers currently reflect a full 23-man roster and with Zach Parise counting against the cap despite not being on the active roster. With Parise back and everyone else staying healthy, paired with some cap space-saving roster maneuvers, CapFriendly predicts that Minnesota could have closer to $3MM in flexibility by the deadline. That could be enough to add a weapon up front. Again, the sole focus is on adding a forward with a history of power play success; a play-maker who understands how to use space and create scoring chances.

With a lot of salary about to come off the payroll next season, the Wild are not limited to rentals in addressing this need. They can certainly add an impending UFA to keep the price down, but with plenty of draft picks and prospects to draw from, they can go bigger with an impending RFA or a player with term.

2021 NCAA Tournament Preview: East Regional

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After an odd season played almost exclusively in-conference, the best of college hockey are finally about to collide. The 2021 NCAA Tournament is set to kick off on Friday, and by Sunday the 16-team field will be down to just four, the Frozen Four. Those teams will then meet next on April 8, with the champion being crowned on April 10. In a single-elimination, do-or-die tournament, the stakes are always high. In a season where almost no one has had the chance to face the top teams outside of their own conference, the bar has been raised even further.

Here is a look at the group in the East Regional, hosted in Bridgeport, Connecticut. No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3 take place on Friday, followed by the winners playing on Saturday for the chance to advance:

1) No. 4 Wisconsin
NHL Prospects:
F Dylan Holloway, Edmonton Oilers (R1, 2020)
F Cole Caufield, Montreal Canadiens (R1, 2019)
D Ty Emberson, Arizona Coyotes (R3, 2018)
F Sam Stange, Detroit Red Wings (R4, 2020)
F Ryder Donovan, Vegas Golden Knights (R4, 2019)
F Jack Gorniak, Montreal Canadiens (R4, 2018)
D Tyler Inamoto, Florida Panther (R5, 2017)
F Owen Lindmark, Florida Panthers (R5, 2019)
F Linus Weissbach, Buffalo Sabres (R7, 2017)
D Josh Ess, Chicago Blackhawks (R7, 2017)

Priority Free Agents: F Ty Pelton-Byce

Each of the first three regionals has a No. 1 seed that looks like a safe bet to emerge victorious. Sure, North Dakota faces a lose-lose scenario with the winner of Minnesota-Duluth or Michigan, but they’re the best team in the country and will be favored over either one. And Minnesota and Boston College may have potential in-state rivals awaiting them in the second round, but each has noticeable flaws. Fittingly, as we get to the lowest-ranked top seed, No. 4 Wisconsin, it really is a toss up between the top two teams in the East Region. Wisconsin’s case is pretty clear: they have elite offensive weapons that helped to form a top-five offense and a first line and top power play unit that rivals any in the country. No lead is safe when facing the Badgers, who can score in bunches with ease. Of course, that fact has been proven because defense and goaltending have been inconsistent in Madison this year and there was little room for error against the elite of the Big Ten. Barring a major upset of one team or the other, they will face that same pressure when they face UMass.

2) No. 5 Massachusetts
NHL Prospects:
D Zac Jones, New York Rangers (R3, 2019)
D Marc Del Gaizo, Nashville Predators (R4, 2019)
D Matthew Kessel, St. Louis Blues (R5, 2020)
G Filip Lindberg, Minnesota Wild (R7, 2019)

Priority Free Agents: F Carson Gicewicz, G Matt Murray

If UMass emerges from the regional, they will likely be the most battle-tested team in the Frozen Four. A veteran team that were finalists in 2019 and looked primed for a deep run before the 2020 cancelation, Amherst just won the Hockey East title and will need to knock off a preseason favorite in Wisconsin to advance. That isn’t possible without a championship caliber roster. Led by the best goaltending tandem in the land, UMass doesn’t sport the same level of talent that they did prior to major losses in each of the past two years, but brings experience and energy and a mobile, skilled blue line that makes it difficult to get a handle on the Minutemen. The question remains whether they can contain the Badgers’ top weapons, though. Even the best goalie is no match for too many opportunities from snipers like Caufield and Holloway.

3) No. 13 Lake Superior State
NHL Prospects: D Arvid Henrikson, Montreal Canadiens (R7, 2016)

Priority Free Agents: F Ashton Calder

Lake Superior State was a bubble team heading into their conference tournament, but thanks to an upset win over Bemidji State in the semis and an even bigger upset of Northern Michigan beating Minnesota State, the Lakers took the WCHA crown and an auto-qualifier bid into the national tournament. Heck, they even got a No. 3 seed out of it. Their reward? The Hockey East champion, UMass, who can be as good as any team in the country on a given day. Given that Lake State finished 32nd in offensive scoring this season despite playing exclusively in the relatively weak WCHA, it is fair to call them the worst offensive team in the tournament. To advance to round two, they have to beat the NCAA’s leader in save percentage (and face the nation’s best backup even if they chase the starter). It doesn’t look good for Lake Superior State.

4) No. 15 Bemidji State
NHL Prospects: None

Priority Free Agents: G Zach Driscoll

A semifinal win for Bemidji State over Lake State in the WCHA Tournament likely would have swapped the two teams’ seeds in the NCAA Tournament – though it matters little when the opponents are equally as dangerous. The only team in the tournament without an NHL prospect has to go up against a team with many, including two of the highest-profile names in college hockey. Bemidji had a good season, but after facing only WCHA competition it is difficult to assume they are ready to take on a powerhouse like Wisconsin, especially when neither their offense nor defense placed among the top 16 in the country even with a light schedule. It would be a stunning upset to see the Beavers take down the Badgers.

Detroit Red Wings Sign Seth Barton

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The Detroit Red Wings have inked one of their collegiate prospects, signing Seth Barton to a two-year entry-level contract. The deal will begin with the 2021-22 season, meaning Barton cannot play for Detroit down the stretch this year.

Coming off his junior season with UMass-Lowell, the 21-year-old Barton is ready to take the next step into professional hockey. Originally selected 81st overall in 2018 he has been a competent two-way defender for the River Hawks for some time now and scored 11 points in 20 games this season.

As the release notes, Barton was selected with the third-round pick the Red Wings received in a trade for Petr Mrazek. That’s a trade the Philadelphia Flyers would certainly not do again, given how poor Mrazek played for them down the stretch in 2017-18. The Flyers actually let the goaltender go without a qualifying offer, meaning that draft pick was spent on almost nothing. Now, as he enters the Red Wings development system, Barton has a chance to show exactly what the Flyers and every other team missed by letting him fall to the end of the third round.

2021 NCAA Tournament Preview: West Regional

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After an odd season played almost exclusively in-conference, the best of college hockey are finally about to collide. The 2021 NCAA Tournament is set to kick off on Friday, and by Sunday the 16-team field will be down to just four, the Frozen Four. Those teams will then meet next on April 8, with the champion being crowned on April 10. In a single-elimination, do-or-die tournament, the stakes are always high. In a season where almost no one has had the chance to face the top teams outside of their own conference, the bar has been raised even further.

Here is a look at the group in the West Regional, hosted in Loveland, Colorado. No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3 take place on Saturday, followed by the winners playing on Sunday for the chance to advance:

1)  No. 2 Minnesota
NHL Prospects:
D Ryan Johnson, Buffalo Sabres (R1, 2019)
D Jackson LaCombe, Anaheim Ducks (R2, 2019)
D Brock Faber, Los Angeles Kings (R2, 2020)
G Jack LaFontaine, Carolina Hurricanes (R3, 2016)
F Sampo Ranta, Colorado Avalanche (R3, 2018)
F Blake McLaughlin, Anaheim Ducks (R3, 2018)
F Scott Reedy, San Jose Sharks (R4, 2017)
F Jack Perbix, Anaheim Ducks (R4, 2018)
D Mike Koster, Toronto Maple Leafs (R5, 2019)
D Ben Brinkman, Dallas Stars (R6, 2019)
G Jared Moe, Winnipeg Jets (R6, 2018)
F Bryce Brodzinski, Philadelphia Flyers (R7, 2019)
F Sammy Walker, Tampa Bay Lightning (R7, 2017)
D Robbie Stucker, Columbus Blue Jackets (R7, 2017)

Priority Free Agents: F Ben Meyers

A historic program that has missed three of the past four NCAA Tournaments and hasn’t won a National Championship since 2003, Minnesota is ready to re-assert themselves as one the best in college hockey. The Gophers have more NHL draft picks on their roster than any other team and it shows in their impressive depth at every position, including six 20+ point players. The No. 4-ranked offense and No.-2 ranked defense in the country combine to make Minnesota a dangerous and well-rounded contender. They likely didn’t expect or wish to potentially face Minnesota State, the only team in the NCAA with a greater scoring differential, but the Gophers are still the team to beat in the West by a wide margin. The real question is whether they have enough high-end talent to take down the other big names that could be waiting in the Frozen Four.

2) No. 6 Minnesota State
NHL Prospects:
D Nathan Smith, Winnipeg Jets (R3, 2018)
D Todd Burgess, Ottawa Senators (R4, 2016)

Priority Free Agents: D Akito Hirose, G Dryden McKay, F Julian Napravnik

Built very differently from their in-state counterparts, the Mavericks of Mankato are nevertheless a scary opposition. With the nation’s top defense paired with a top-ten offense, Minnesota State led the NCAA with a 2.62 average scoring margin. An experienced, conservative team backed up by stellar goaltending, Minnesota State beats up on its WCHA opponents year after year, fine tuning its structure in anticipation of superior competition in the NCAA Tournament. It has become a near-fool proof strategy for the team, provided they win their conference tournament. That didn’t happen this year and Minnesota State likely lost a No. 1 seed as a result. They get relatively lucky with Quinnipiac in the first round – not a pushover but a team with an even less impressive resume than Mankato’s this season – but facing Minnesota to get through to the Frozen Four is a daunting task.

3) No. 10 Quinnipiac
NHL Prospects:
F Ty Smilanic, Florida Panthers (R3, 2020)
G Keith Petruzelli, Detroit Red Wings (R3, 2017)
F Skyler Brind’Amour, Edmonton Oilers (R6, 2017)
D Peter DiLiberatore, Vegas Golden Knights (R6, 2018)

Priority Free Agents: F Odeen Tufto 

Technically, it took a positive COVID test from the stunning ECAC Champions St. Lawrence to guarantee Quinnipiac a spot in the NCAA Tournament this year as the replacement auto-qualifier. However, Quinnipiac was undeniably the best team in their conference this year and may have made the tournament anyway. Yet, the ECAC in 2020-21 was not the typical quality of the conference. With the Ivy League schools, Union, and RIT all opting out of the season, the ECAC was composed of just Quinnipiac, Clarkson, St. Lawrence, and Colgate, the latter two of which are perennially at the bottom of the conference standings. COVID also knocked Clarkson out of the ECAC tournament, eliminating yet another roadblock for Quinnipiac. The team has some talented players, but there really is no way of knowing what to expect from a largely untested Bobcats squad this year.

4) No. 12 Nebraska-Omaha
NHL Prospects:
D Jonny Tychonick, Ottawa Senators (R2, 2018)
F Tyler Weiss, Colorado Avalanche (R4, 2018)
G Isaiah Saville, Vegas Golden Knights (R5, 2019)

Priority Free Agents: F Chayse Primeau, D Brandon Scanlin

A true bubble team this year, Omaha’s one-and-done NCHC Tournament looked like it might doom their national title hopes, but they snuck into the national tournament somehow. Their reward? A much deeper and more talented Minnesota team in the first round. While Omaha is by no means the easiest first-round opponent, they do have some holes, namely inconsistent secondary scoring and defensive play and so-so goaltending. UNO will have to shake off their poor conference tournament, ride their top scorers, and hope for the best on the back end if they want to upset the Gophers.

National ranks courtesy of the March 22 USA Today/USA Hockey Magazine Men’s College Hockey Poll

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