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Trade Deadline Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning

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We are now less than a week away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning needed to look for a new challenge this season after stomping the competition in the 2020 postseason. They decided that if the league’s teams weren’t good enough to beat them, they would just take on the league itself. This season, the Lightning have stretched the NHL’s hard salary cap to it’s limit. Some might even throw the word “circumvention” out there. Tampa has managed to hold on to it’s extremely talented and fairly compensated roster due almost entirely due to the timely injury of Nikita Kucherov and the acquisitions of other injured players Marian Gaborik and Anders Nilsson. The Bolts have over $17MM in salary on Long-Term Injured Reserve – and they’ve used up all but $370,500 of it. There is zero space for the Lightning to do anything at the trade deadline beyond a minor depth addition, but they will get a major boost in the postseason with the return of Kucherov. Barring another opportunistic injury or a hockey trade that no one sees coming, the Bolts may have to settle for that this season.

Record

26-11-2, .692, 3rd in Central Division

Deadline Status

Stand Pat

Deadline Cap Space

$0MM in full-season space ($371K in LTIR space), 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: TBL 1st, TBL 3rd, TBL 4th, TBL 5th, TBL 6th, NJD 7th, NSH 7th, TBL 7th
2022: TBL 1st, TBL 3rd, TBL 4th, TBL 5th, TBL 6th, TBL 7th

Trade Chips

There is a difference between what the Lightning could offer and what they will offer, given that they are in no position to make much of a trade. It is unlikely that the team is going to move any of their roster players to open up space, so even though pieces like Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn may seem expendable, it is hard to imagine the team trading them in-season as opposed to waiting for the off-season.

As a result, Tampa has little space to work with and that means their targets will not be high-priced pieces. The most likely result for the Bolts is that they add a cheap depth piece in exchange for a late pick or low-end prospect. Those are the “chips” that will probably move, if there is any move at all.

In the event that Tampa tries to make a bigger move, using the very limit of their salary cap potential despite the risks, they will still be looking at a picks-and-prospects scenario in this buyer’s market. Without a second-round pick for the next two years, the Lightning’s first-rounders are probably off the table unless they are asking a team to give up one of the top rentals on the market and retain the maximum 50% of his salary in order to make the deal work under the cap. The likelihood of such a deal is low. Expect for them instead to dangle multiple mid-round picks and prospects like Jack Finley or Jack Thompson if they really want to make a splash.

Others to Watch For: F Taylor Raddysh ($833K, RFA), F Boris Katchouk ($833K, RFA), F Alex Barre-Boulet ($759K, RFA), F Sam Walker (Draft Rights), D Eamon Powell (Draft Rights)

Team Needs

1) Defense – If, and it’s a big if, the Lightning are able to find a way to clear enough cap space to add a player of note at the deadline, it has to be on the blue line. The forward corps is deep and talented and will only get better once the postseason arrives and Kucherov can return. The net is well-manned, with Andrei Vasilevskiy enjoying another Vezina-caliber season. Both of those units remain largely unchanged from last season’s title-winning lineup. However, the defense has taken a hit. The top four is still stout, but the bottom pair and depth options range from young and inexperienced to old and ineffective. Tampa could really use a stabilizing force on the back end, especially with Jan Rutta sidelined and Erik Cernak dealing with a nagging injury. Of course, cost will be a factor. Without making a trade to move out salary, the Bolts can only open up another $1.5MM max and still be able to ice a full lineup, demoting the likes of Luke Schenn and Ben Thomas. That leaves the Bolts with a maximum $1.9MM or so to acquire a defenseman, but adding that much salary is a risk should another injury occur. The need is there, but the means to address it are problematic. The team likely thinks small with a value addition.

Snapshots: Johnson, Winnik, NCAA Transfers

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After Adam Johnson’s sudden and unexpected departure from the SHL’s Malmo Redhawks, the forward has landed back in North America. Johnson has signed a contract with the AHL’s Ontario Reign for the remainder of the year, the team announced. This isn’t quite the NHL contract that was expected when Johnson returned home from Sweden, but is still a good opportunity for the 26-year-old to show off for the L.A. Kings and other NHL teams before the off-season. Johnson played in 13 games with the Pittsburgh Penguins over the past two years, recording four points, and has put up good numbers in the AHL previously. The University of Minnesota-Duluth product is hoping that another strong showing in the minors will prove that he is worthy of another NHL deal.

  • Veteran forward Daniel Winnik will not be returning home, though. Winnik, 36, will continue his playing career for at least another season by signing a one-year extension with Geneve-Servette of the Swiss National League. The contract also includes an additional option year, if the experienced pro actually has two years left in him. Winnik played in nearly 800 career NHL games before departing for Switzerland in 2018, suiting up for eight different teams along the way. He has found more consistency in the second stage of his career, having already played three seasons with Geneve-Servette and now gaining one or two more to come. Winnik has excelled overseas even in his late thirties, playing at a near point-per-game pace.
  • There will be a number of familiar faces in new places across the NCAA next season. It has already been an unprecedented off-season for notable transfers, even with the Frozen Four still yet to be played. More than a dozen players have already switched schools, including some NHL prospects. Two of the more recent names to make a change include Vegas Golden Knights’ forward prospect Brandon Kruse and Winnipeg Jets’ goalie prospect Jared Moe. Kruse, 22, has already played four full seasons at Bowling Green, but will take advantage of his fifth year of eligibility due to COVID to become a graduate transfer to Boston College, the program confirmed. The 2018 fifth-round pick has been one of the Falcons’ best forwards and is a nice pickup for the Eagles, who are still believed to be in the running for several other noteworthy transfers as well. Moe, 21, is moving on from Minnesota after sitting behind Carolina Hurricanes’ prospect Jack LaFontaine this season (and LaFontaine has committed to another year with the Gophers as well). Moe has reported on his own that he will flip to Big Ten rival Wisconsin next season, where the starting job is at least open to competition. Moe may not be the only Winnipeg keeper to transfer this off-season too; UMass Lowell goaltender Logan Neaton is also in the NCAA Transfer Portal after he too was used sparingly this season.

Calgary Flames Sign Ilya Solovyov

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The Calgary Flames have signed prospect Ilya Solovyov to a three-year entry-level contract according to his agent Dan Milstein of Gold Star Hockey. Solovyov recently finished his KHL season with Dinamo Minsk. Milstein did not clarify whether or not the contract starts this season or in 2021-22, or whether Solovyov will be joining the AHL down the stretch like many other recently-signed prospects. The Flames release, which came a few minutes later, also does not clarify, but PuckPedia reports that the deal will start in 2021-22 and carry an average annual value of $828K.

The 20-year-old defenseman was a seventh-round pick in 2020, his third year of draft eligibility. It took an impressive season with the Saginaw Spirit of the OHL for the scouts to take notice, as previously the Belarusian defenseman had gone undrafted. In 53 games last year with Saginaw, he recorded 40 points while finishing ninth in the entire league with a +43 rating.

If you’re a Calgary fan looking for a late-round pick to dream on, the 6’3″ Solovyov may be the one to choose, after he stepped directly into the KHL and secured a regular spot on the Dinamo blueline. In 41 games he had just nine points but managed to average nearly 17 minutes a night as a 20-year-old rookie, not an easy task in the veteran-heavy KHL. In five playoff games, that ice time increased to more than 19 minutes a night, another strong indication of how far Solovyov’s game has come in the last few years.

There’s certainly work to be done, but a draft class that was bookended by Connor Zary (24th overall) and Solovyov (205th) already looks like a win for the Flames. If the young defenseman can even sniff the NHL, he’ll have already outplayed his draft position.

Montreal Canadiens Sign Jan Mysak

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The Montreal Canadiens have reached a deal with another one of their top prospects, agreeing to terms with Jan Mysak on a three-year entry-level contract. The deal will start in 2020-21 and carry an average annual value of $850,833. Mysak is currently playing with the Laval Rocket on an amateur tryout.

The 18-year-old Mysak was the 48th overall pick in last year’s draft after a short run with the Hamilton Bulldogs of the OHL. The Czech forward played 22 games for the junior team but managed 15 goals and 25 points, showing off the scoring ability that had been stifled at the professional level in his home country. The fact that Mysak was playing in the top Czech league as a teenager should be enough, but it was hard to know just how high his offensive ceiling was before seeing him dominate against players his own age.

A two-time representative at the World Juniors, Mysak has generally shown that when given room to get an impressive shot off, he can be an offensive catalyst. He still has work to do on his skating if he wants to be able to generate those scoring chances at the NHL level, but the fact that he’s already playing at the AHL level will only help push that development quickly. In 13 games for the Rocket he has just two goals but is gaining valuable experience in the faster and tougher North American style.

Ottawa Senators Sign Max Guenette

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The Ottawa Senators have had quite a busy few days. After inking some top college prospects, the team has added another young player to the mix today, signing Max Guenette to a three-year entry-level contract. The contract will start in the 2021-22 season as the young defenseman is currently playing for the Val-d’Or Foreurs of the QMJHL. Senators GM Pierre Dorion released a statement on the signing:

Maxence is a strong puck moving defenceman who absorbs a lot of ice-time for his team in Val-d’Or, the QMJHL’s top ranked team this season. He maintains good vision, hockey sense and puck skills. We’re especially pleased to already see some significant strides he’s made since being drafted.

Selected 187th overall in 2019, the 19-year-old Guenette has developed nicely over the past two years. While he doesn’t come with the same profile or potential as some of the other top prospects in the Senators system, he’ll join what has become a deep pipeline of talent and try to make his mark next season. As he’ll turn 20 later this month, Guenette will be eligible for the AHL in 2021-22.

Had he not signed by June, the Senators would have lost Guenette’s exclusive draft rights. Given where they are on the rebuild window, they can’t afford to give up any young prospects that could add value to the organization.

Trade Deadline Primer: New York Rangers

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We are now less than two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the New York Rangers.

The New York Rangers are a rebuilding team with a large assortment of promising, young pieces to build around. The team has been competitive this season, but is still a few pieces away from rounding out into a contender.

This is the description of a seller. The problem this poses to the Rangers: who are they supposed to sell? The roster is completely devoid of valuable impending free agents. Not one of New York’s UFA’s-to-be is at the top or even the middle of any buyer’s wish list. In a cap-strapped, expansion-affected, in-season trade market, the Rangers are also not going to make any major moves right now to shake up their roster or look to add those missing core pieces. The Rangers should be sellers; they simply have nothing to sell at this moment.

Record

16-15-4, .514, 6th in East Division

Deadline Status

Stand Pat (By Default)

Deadline Cap Space

$4.01MM in full-season space ($17.87MM at the deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NYR 1st, BUF 3rd, NYR 3rd, OTT 4th, LAK 4th, NYR 4th, NYR 5th, NYR 6th, NYR 7th
2022: NYR 1st, NYR 2nd, NYR 3rd, NYR 4th, NYR 5th, NYR 6th, NYR 7th

Trade Chips

A warning for the following: the word “chips” should be taken with a grain of salt – and nothing is worse than chips without enough salt. The Rangers’ trade chips are either under-seasoned or old and stale. New York could deal the whole bag for the trade capital equivalent of 99 cents. There is nothing to see here.

The most recognizable rentals on the New York roster are veteran defensemen Jack Johnson and Brandon Smith, two of the most maligned defenders in the NHL in recent years. Johnson has already cleared waivers without any takers, while Smith’s $4.35MM contract means he is unlikely to move.

Phil Di Giuseppe is the Ranger’s lone impending free agent forward on the NHL roster and their best available rental. The 27-year-old winger has eight points in 25 games, which isn’t anything special, but puts him on a 26-point full-season pace – a good value at just $700K. Di Giuseppe may not be a household name, but he has nearly 200 NHL games to his credit as well. Contenders could do worse for a cheap depth rental.

As for players with some term on their contracts, the Rangers could listen on forwards Colin Blackwell and Kevin Rooney, defenseman Anthony Bitetto, or veteran goaltender Keith Kinkaid. However, they have to be wary of the Expansion Draft exposure requirements and the repercussions that moving any of these players would have. Especially at forward, where the team already dealt away Brendan Lemieux, moving another term forward is a shaky proposition.

Of course, the big name on the block in New York is defenseman Anthony DeAngelo. With more than enough talent to command a nice trade return on ability alone, the fact is that if a DeAngelo trade was going to happen, it likely would have already. Some teams are wary of his character concerns, while others are not comfortable with adding his $4.8MM cap hit to their 2021-22 payroll. Either way, DeAngelo seems likely to stay put in New York through the season until he can be used as Expansion Draft fodder and then bought out. DeAngelo is too good not to play in the NHL again, but it won’t be this year.

Others to Watch For: F Jonny Brodzinski ($700K, UFA), F Anthony Greco ($737.5K, 2022 UFA), F Patrick Newell ($792.5K, RFA), D Darren Raddysh ($700K, Group 6 UFA), D Mason Geertsen ($725K, 2022 UFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks and Prospects – Read: Mid-to-late-round draft picks and C- or D-level prospects. Sorry, Rangers fans. This is not going to be an exciting deadline. This is the best you can hope for. Hold tight until the off-season and wait for GM Jeff Gorton to try to swing a blockbuster for a top-six center.

Minnesota Wild Sign Matt Boldy To ELC

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The Minnesota Wild have reached an agreement on an entry-level contract with one of their top prospects. 2019 first-round pick Matt Boldy has decided to forego the rest of his NCAA eligibility and depart Boston College for the pros. The Wild have announced a three-year deal with Boldy that begins this season. Financial terms were not disclosed. He will report immediately to the AHL’s Iowa Wild to begin his pro career.

Boldy, 19, just completed a terrific sophomore season at BC, although he surely would have liked to see the Eagles reach the Frozen Four. He did plenty to help them all season long, though; Boldy led a deep BC team across the board with 11 goals, 20 assists, and 31 points in just 22 games. He had enjoyed a nice freshman campaign, but took a major leap forward this season, asserting himself as one of the best players in college hockey. In fact, Boldy finished fifth in points per game in the NCAA this season. Boldy’s skating has improved to match his impressive offensive instincts, hands, and shot, making him a well-rounded offensive weapon. The big forward, who exclusively played on the wing this year after struggling at times at center last season, is not only a dangerous scorer either. Boldy wins puck battles with his size and tenacity and seems to never be caught out of position.

It is not a reach to say that Boldy projects as an NHL top-six forward with both power play and penalty kill ability. The two-way forward is young, but has the size and the IQ of a much more experienced player. While he may head to Iowa at the outset, Boldy will be in Minnesota in no time. The Wild have a good thing going this season, but could desperately use a power play difference-maker. If he takes to the pro game quickly, Boldy’s net front presence and scoring ability could immediately make him invaluable to his team. Even if Boldy doesn’t really take on a major role in Minnesota until next season, he still joins Kirill Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala, Jordan Greenway, and Joel Eriksson Ek (and eventually Marco Rossi too) in a young, exciting forward core that could make the Wild competitive for years to come.

Trade Deadline Primer: New York Islanders

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We are now just two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the New York Islanders.

The New York Islanders, perpetual underdogs, are again delivering an excellent season. Picked by many before the season to miss the playoffs in a loaded East Division, the Islanders have outplayed their competitors for much of the season. A top-five team in goals against average and shots against per game, the Isles have again bought in to head coach Barry Trotz’ conservative, smothering style and are frustrating opponents left and right.

With that said, New York does not have a top-class offense, and that was even before the season-ending injury to captain Anders Lee. The Islanders are just a middle-of-the pack team in terms of scoring and are below average on the power play. As a side effect of the system, they do not put a lot of shots on net and have few odd-man rushes. Simply, they need to make their scoring chances count and without Lee that becomes more difficult. The Islanders have won just five of their past nine games since their leading goal-scorer went down and have slipped into a tie with the Pittsburgh Penguins in second in the division. In terms of points percentage, New York is closer to the Boston Bruins in fourth (who have many more game in hand) than they are to the Washington Capitals in first. The Islanders are unlikely to fall out of the playoff picture completely, but to stay near the top they desperately need to add offense.

Record

22-10-4, .667, T-2nd in East Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$0MM in full-season space (LTIR, $6.53MM unused), 0/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NYI 1st, COL 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th
2022: NYI 1st, NYI 2nd, COL 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th

Trade Chips

Like many contenders, the Islanders don’t have the strongest pipeline to lean on. However, likely looking to add just one rental forward in a buyer’s market, they shouldn’t have to offer up any of their few elite prospects to get the job done. So fear not Isles fans, Oliver Wahlstrom and Noah Dobson aren’t going anywhere.

Kieffer Bellows is likely the name that will be heard most often as being linked to outgoing Islanders’ packages. A polarizing, but promising prospect, Bellows hasn’t found the success in the NHL that was expected of a first-round pick and World Juniors standout, but he could benefit from playing in a different system. The 22-year-old may very well be selected by the Seattle Kraken in this summer’s Expansion Draft if he is still on the roster and not protected, so the Islanders might be looking to deal him rather than risk losing him for nothing.

The Islanders also have an organization depth chart chock full of young defenseman that they could offer up in a deadline deal. Bode Wilde will be the player most suitors ask about, but the team will try to steer them away from the talented righty. Sebastian Aho and Grant Hutton are NHL-ready assets who don’t necessarily have a full-time spot waiting for them in New York next season, making them expendable, while Robin Salo and Samuel Bolduc are younger options with intriguing upside.

Others to Watch For: F Ross Johnston ($1MM, 2022 UFA), F Michael Dal Colle ($700K, RFA), F Otto Koivula ($787K, RFA), D Parker Wotherspoon ($725K, 2022 RFA), G Jakub Skarek ($764K, 2023 RFA)

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Winger – GM Lou Lamoriello will have his sights set on one thing and one thing only at the deadline: a Lee replacement. While the captain’s locker room leadership and even his two-way effort and IQ likely cannot be found on the market, the Islanders need to find someone who can take up his knack for scoring goals. The team relies on efficiency on offense and are now missing their most reliable scorer. They are solid down the middle and have plenty of other talented wingers, but no one who isn’t already playing in the top-six can reliably fill Lee’s shoes. With up to $7MM in cap space to use with Lee on Long-Term Injured Reserve, nearly any rental winger can fit under the cap. Buffalo’s Taylor Hall, the lone exception, could be had with some retention involved, but New Jersey’s Kyle Palmieri or Nashville’s Mikael Granlund would fit nicely under the cap. If the Islanders can’t manage to land one of those top options, dark horse candidates could include Chicago’s Mattias Janmark, who is scoring goals at a torrid clip this year, Vancouver’s Tanner Pearson, if healthy, or another New Jersey option, Nikita Gusev. 

2) Goaltender – Being the shrewd veteran executive that he is, don’t be surprised to see Lamoriello look at solving an Expansion crisis ahead of the deadline as well. With young Ilya Sorokin exempt from the draft and Cory Schneider headed for free agency, the Islanders do not currently have the necessary goalie to expose to Seattle assuming they protect starter Semyon Varlamov, unless they  extend the 35-year-old Schneider that is. Instead, look for the team to add a keeper with term on his contract or heading for restricted free agency. The team could kill two birds with one stone if they make can find a dependable addition; having a fourth-string for the playoffs and a third-string to replace Schneider next year would be a wise move.

Snapshots: Bowman, Kiersted, OHL

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As expected, accomplished Chicago Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman will be the next leader of Team USA. Sportsnet’s Frank Seravalli reports that USA Hockey has scheduled a press conference for Wednesday where they will officially name Bowman as the GM for the U.S. entry into the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Given the NHL’s absence at the most recent Olympics paired with the quality of American players who have blossomed into superstars over the past eight years, expectations are high for Team USA. A two-time Stanley Cup winning GM, whose current rebuild seems to be moving along nicely as well, Bowman has found great success in his career and appears ready for the challenge. With a familiar face in Chicago icon Patrick Kane leading the way, Bowman’s Team USA could be legitimate contenders for gold. He won’t be alone in the decision-making, either; Seravalli notes that Minnesota Wild GM Bill Guerin will be named an assistant of Bowman’s as well. Nashville’s David Poile and Carolina’s Don Waddell are also likely to be considered for the brain trust, among others.

  • North Dakota defenseman Matt Kiersted, considered by many to be the top college free agent available this year, is already having to chip away at his list of suitors. The Athletic’s Michael Russo reports that 20+ NHL clubs have already shown interest in the dependable puck-mover, and he has begun to whittle that down to a “workable” number. What criteria Kiersted is using to choose between what are virtually identical entry-level offers is unknown and there has been few whispers of which teams might remain in the running. However, Russo notes that the Elk River, Minnesota native will definitely keep his hometown Minnesota Wild in consideration. Russo adds that the impending Expansion Draft could strip the Wild of one of their starting defensemen and there could be NHL opportunity right away for the local product. Among other likely landing spots, it is hard to ignore the immense North Dakota presence in the Ottawa Senators’ pipeline, which could link the team to Kiersted and fellow premiere UFA Jordan Kawaguchi.
  • The OHL’s shortened season is expected to begin soon and teams would prefer that their players return as soon as possible. However, the league has yet to set a firm date, seemingly dragging its feet with actually opening up play as opposed to merely discussing it. This is posing quite a conundrum for some top prospects, writes Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. Many top junior-age draft picks in recent years have been playing in the AHL this season with the OHL out of commission. This includes Washington’s Connor McMichael, Los Angeles’s Quinton Byfield, Montreal’s Jan Mysak and Carolina’s Ryan Suzuki, while Anaheim’s Jamie Drysdale would have to stay put with the Ducks. Per the CHL Transfer Agreement, these players must return to the OHL once the season begins if they are not on NHL rosters. However, without a solid start date and facing a quarantine period, it is a difficult ask to suggest that these talented young players leave their AHL clubs and head for the unknown. McMichael has been outspoken on the subject, stating “I honestly want to stay here and just play pro hockey. I think it would be best for my development” and Friedman feels the others likely share in that sentiment. Will there be an exception made to allow this group to stay put to close out the season? Or will they be forced to take yet another break from hockey to quarantine only to return to a junior game that they have outgrown?

Trade Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Nashville Predators.

The Nashville Predators are sellers. In fact, the Predators being ready to gut their roster has been one of the more talked-about storylines of the 2020-21 season. Ask any media personality in hockey and they will say that Nashville is shopping this guy and listening on that guy. It seems that almost anyone on the roster could be available as the Predators have been labeled as disappointments.

Yet, hidden behind the headlines, the outrage level likely isn’t that high internally in Nashville. Quietly, the team is actually playing quite well of late. Since Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman proclaimed last month that there were only three untouchables on the entire Nashville roster, the team has gone 10-7-1 including four wins in a row and wins in six of their past seven. The team is up to .500 on the season and that could be enough to sneak into the postseason in the Central Division’s final spot. In their history, the Predators have never really torn apart their roster and restarted and it seems unlikely that they have the proper motivation to do so now.

With that said, this is still not where the 2017 Western Conference Champions thought they would be at this point in time. The season results have gotten worse each year since their Stanley Cup Final appearance: a second-round exit in 2018, a first-round loss in 2019, and a failure to even advance beyond the qualifying round last year. Now, there is a real possibility that the Predators could miss the playoffs entirely this season. A team loaded with depth and numerous talented veterans, Nashville should be better and it is somewhat inexplicable why they aren’t. As a result, there needs to be a shake-up. However, given the recent improvements, the Predators’ approach to the deadline is likely to be less fire sale and more strategic dealing, especially in a buyer’s market.

Record

17-17-1, .500, T-5th in Central Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$2.46MM in full-season space ($10.97MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, COL 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th
2022: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 7th

Trade Chips

It is probably easier to start with the players who aren’t for sale. As Friedman noted back in February, that definitely includes career Predator goaltender Pekka Rinne, who is in the last year of his contract and quite possibly his career and is being honored with the ability to go out on his own terms (and a No-Movement Clause helps). It also included cornerstone defensemen Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. At the time, this was the extent of Friedman’s list. He even noted that young defender Dante Fabbro or top scorer Filip Forsberg could be available at the right price. Now, that is almost certainly not the case. Friedman has also since flipped on Ellis’ availability, but he should be safe. Nashville also has no reason to trade young impact players, such as off-season acquisition Luke Kunin, recent first-round pick Eeli Tolvanen, collegiate standouts Rem Pitlick and Jeremy Davies, and impressive goaltender Juuse Saros.

Beyond that group, it probably isn’t a stretch to say that GM David Poile will at least listen to offers for anyone else on the roster. Part of that is due to the Predators’ current situation and the slim likelihood that they can contend this season, even if they do sneak into the playoffs in a top-heavy Central Division. This means that they receive no benefit from hanging on to their impending unrestricted free agents. Mikael Granlund is the top trade chip among this group. The skilled forward was a late off-season signing and somewhat of an afterthought heading into the season, but leads all Nashville forwards in time on ice, proving himself to be an invaluable piece. Other teams have taken notice as well, as Granlund’s name has been floated on the rumor mill more than a few times and has been linked to several contenders. Another late off-season addition, Erik Haula will also be for sale. A similarly versatile forward to Granlund, Haula hasn’t made as much of an impact but has previously proven to be an asset in the right system. Among other expiring contracts, veterans Brad Richardson and Luca Sbisa, if healthy by the deadline, could draw some interest at a cheap price point. Despite their recent success, the Predators only reason for not trading any of these potential rentals would be if they had interest in an extension and only Granlund, their most valuable piece, would conceivably fit the bill.

The other reason why Poile is open to moving other players off his roster, those with term on their contracts, is partially due to the impending Expansion Draft. Whether the Predators choose to use the standard 7-3 protection scheme or instead choose the 8-skater scheme in order to protect Mattias Ekholm, they will be exposing key players either way. Ironically, the Predators’ impressive depth on paper is not doing much to help them this season but will hurt them in expansion. Ekholm is at the top of most trade boards as a name likely to move before the deadline. The Seattle Kraken would not hesitate to claim him if he was to be left exposed in the draft and the Predators will not give him up for free when he can command a strong return on the trade market as a balanced, two-way defenseman with an affordable contract and a reliable top-four track record. Yet, even if Ekholm is traded and the Predators can protect three defensemen and seven forwards, they still face liability up front. Nashville simply has too many valuable names at forward, even if many are underachieving. Are they really ready to let expensive, underwhelming former stars like Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene go for free? Could they really leave career Predators like Calle Jarnkrok or Colton Sissons exposed? And they also need to consider protecting younger names like Pitlick an Yakov Trenin who could be looked upon to take on larger roles moving forward. There are simply too many names in Nashville for a valuable player not to be left exposed, so why not listen to trade offers instead. Moving Johansen or Duchene this season is unlikely due to cap implications, but Jarnkrok, Sissons, Rocco Grimaldi, and Nick Cousins are all for sale at the right price. The difference between last month’s mindset and the current strategy is likely that only one or two of the aforementioned players are likely to go, rather than the whole lot in a fire sale.

The x-factor for Nashville at the deadline is forward Viktor Arvidsson. By no means does the team have to trade the talented winger, who will have a safe spot on their protection list come Expansion Draft time if he is still on the roster. However, Arvidsson has been in decline for two seasons now – an unexpected regression for a 27-year-old. Arvidsson is still relied upon to play a key top-six role for Nashville, but is failing to produce like he did as a back-to-back 61-point player just a few years ago. On one hand, the Predators would be selling low on the skilled forward, who should still have plenty left in the tank. On the other hand, moving Arvidsson if they are happy with an offer could be the reality check that the team desperately needs. If the trade market remains underwhelming though, as many expect, it is more likely that Arvidsson stays put for now. Trading him at his lowest point while the team is finally gaining traction is not the shake up they need.

Others to Watch For: D Mark Borowiecki ($2MM, 2022 UFA), D Matt Benning ($1MM, 2022 UFA), G Kasimir Kaskisuo ($700K, UFA), D Ben Harpur ($700K, RFA), F Michael McCarron ($700K, RFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – Despite several years in a row of regular season success, the Predators have managed to build themselves a nice pipeline of talent. At every position, they have multiple players who project to be good NHLers. The problem with their current pipeline is that it is getting a little old. Some of their best prospects are already in the pros, bouncing between the NHL and AHL or locked into contracts overseas. Many others are collegiate players on the older side for prospects. Nashville needs some fresh blood and the best way to do that is to add draft picks. Though they have their full complement of draft picks this year (minus a seventh-rounder), draft pick packages will be the way to go as they move on from current roster players.

2) Top-Four Left-Handed Prospect Defenseman – If available, the one area that Nashville could target a specific player rather than load up on draft picks is at left defense. With Ekholm looking like his time in Nashville is winding down and some concern over whether Boston University defenseman David Farrance will sign with the team or instead opt for free agency, there could be a major hole in the top-four at LHD. The Predators have the cap space to find a capable free agent stopgap, but could use a long-term plan. Young pros Fabbro, Alexandre Carrier, and Frederic Allard are all right-handed and Davies looks like a solid NHLer but is already 24 and lacks top-pair upside. In the pipeline, Marc Del Gaizo is an intriguing prospect but more likely a bottom-pair defender. No one else even projects to be an NHLer. The Predators need to reload on the blue line, and can do that through the draft, but if a top young left-handed defense prospect is offered up, they would be wise to consider. To a lesser extent, center is also a position that could become a need sooner rather than later in Nashville as many of the Predators’ top forward prospects are not necessarily projected to play center at the top level. A natural pivot with top-six upside would be a nice addition, but isn’t as pressing as left defense and could be more easily found where the team expects to pick in the first round of the 2021 NHL Draft.

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