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Wild Notes: Dumba, Parise, First Round Picks

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Although the Minnesota Wild played well in their seven-game first round series against the Vegas Golden Knights, losing with dignity to one of the best teams in the NHL this season, their loss has already fired the rumor mill back up, reports Sarah MacLellan of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. At the center of the speculation yet again is defenseman Matt Dumba. Despite another strong season for the 26-year-old blue liner, capped off by a postseason in which he tied for the team lead in points, there is still speculation over Dumba’s future in Minnesota stemming from the impending NHL Expansion Draft. The Wild can only protect three defensemen and seven forwards or instead eight skaters total from selection by the Seattle Kraken. With Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, and Jonas Brodin all carrying No-Movement Clauses, the trio all must be protected. The only way that the team can use the 7-3 format and also protect Dumba would be fore one those three to waive their NMC and allow themselves to be exposed. Otherwise, the Wild will have to protect eight skaters, but with Zach Parise and Mats Zuccarello also with No-Movement Clauses, this would mean Minnesota would have to leave multiple promising young forwards exposed in order to make room for Dumba, including at least one of Joel Eriksson Ek or Jordan Greenway. One thing that is certain is that Minnesota will not let Dumba be taken for free by future Western Conference rival Seattle. If the team cannot convince a veteran to waive their NMC and decide the 7-3 protection scheme is their best choice, Dumba will be traded before the Expansion Draft – hence the abundant speculation. Dumba has stated many times that he would like to remain with the Wild, so the organization is obviously doing all they can to make it work.

  • Another player who would like to stay in Minnesota is Parise. The 36-year-old is coming off of a down year and was even benched for the first three games of the Wild’s first round series. However, he impressed in the remainder of the series once activated. Parise can still play at a high level, but not commensurate to his $7.5MM+ cap hit over four more years. The Wild have tried to move the contract in the past and may do so again this summer, but Parise hopes they don’t. He told Dane Mizutani of TwinCities.com that he “[doesn’t] want to play anywhere else” but for his hometown team. As Mizutani points out, he shouldn’t be too worried given his albatross of a contract. Ironically though, one way that Parise could prove his loyalty to the club would be to waive his NMC for the Expansion Draft, allowing Minnesota to protect all of Dumba, Eriksson Ek, and Greenway in an 8-skater format. There is no way that Seattle would touch Parise’s contract, so it could be a win-win for both sides.
  • While the Wild are certainly not looking forward to the Expansion Draft – even if Dumba, Eriksson Ek, and Greenway are safe, the team will still lose a good player like Carson Soucy or Marcus Foligno – they are definitely excited for the NHL Entry Draft. With the Pittsburgh Penguins opting to send their 2021 first-round pick rather than their 2020 for last year’s Jason Zucker trade, the Wild will now have two picks in the top 32 this year. Not only that, but they will have two picks very close together as well. Minnesota’s own pick is locked in at No. 22 overall, but if the Tampa Bay Lightning advance to the next round, Pittsburgh’s pick will be No. 25, allowing the Wild to control the board with two picks out of four selections. They could also look to package the two picks to potentially move up into the top half of the first round. With a pipeline that is already well-stocked, Minnesota has put themselves in position to stay competitive for a long time with a strong roster and deep system after adding two first-rounders this year, as well as all of their own picks and another Pittsburgh pick in the third round.

Central Notes: Suter, Staal, Watson

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Minnesota defenseman Ryan Suter is slated to meet with doctors early next week to determine if he will be cleared to participate at the beginning of training camp, notes NHL.com’s Tom Gulitti.  The veteran sustained a fractured fibula late last season that also kept him out of the playoffs.  Suter has been taking part in informal skates over the past month but the Wild asked him to not take part in a charity game late last month, citing that they want to be cautious with their top defender.  While there was initially some concern that Suter could miss the beginning of the season, the signs are certainly encouraging that he’ll be ready to go in early October although they may limit his preseason appearances just to be on the safe side.

More from the Central:

  • Still with the Wild, center Eric Staal told NBC Sports’ Sean Leahy that he’s hoping to stay in Minnesota past this coming season. The 33-year-old is coming off of his best goalscoring performance (42) since 2005-06 when he tallied 45 times and is entering the final year of what has proven to be a very team-friendly deal that pays $3.5MM.  It was reported last month that new GM Paul Fenton wants to wait until the season gets underway before engaging in potential extension negotiations.  Considering the year Staal just had, it’s certainly understandable for the team to take that approach.
  • The NHL has completed its review regarding the domestic violence case regarding Predators winger Austin Watson, notes Paul Skrbina of The Tennessean. A decision regarding any potential supplementary discipline is expected by the time training camp opens up on Thursday.  Watson pled no contest to the charge and was given three months’ probation and placed on judiciary review which means that if he abides by the terms set, his case will be expunged.

Ryan Suter Expects To Be At Full Strength To Begin Season

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Back in April, Minnesota Wild star defenseman Ryan Suter stated that his broken fibula injury was extremely rare, most commonly seen in car accidents, and that if he played any other sport but hockey it may have been a career-ending injury. Four months later, Suter is now optimistic that he will have a healthy ankle and be ready for full participation come training camp next month. “I feel good right now. I feel like I’m back”, Suter told beat writer Dan Myers, “the way I feel right now, I feel like I’m going to be ready for camp.”

When Suter originally went down with the injury late in the regular season, it didn’t seem at first to be anything major. It was soon discovered that it was quite the opposite. Suter went in for surgery on April 5th and was originally given a four-month timeline before he could even put weight on his right leg. Yet, just days after that four-month mark, Suter told Myers that he skated for the first time three weeks ago. While the reliable rearguard did go through arduous rehab and spent most of the summer in discomfort and pain, he is now working out harder than ever, dedicating hours each day to the gym in an effort to get back to 100%. Suter estimates that, injury and all, he is only a few weeks behind where he would be in a normal off-season.

For those doubting that Suter will be able to step on the ice for the Wild’s opener and play up to the very high standards that he has set for himself, Myers says that Suter thrives off the skepticism. “Honestly, that motivates me, I like doubters. When people say, ’You probably won’t be ready for camp,’ that just makes me angry. I might not be, but I’m sure as heck going to try as hard as I can.” Myers remarks that Suter seems confident and re-energized for the season. The all-world blue liner himself is openly optimistic: “I’m looking forward to getting back to Minnesota. I feel like this is going to be a blessing in disguise.” Minnesota fans who share in their defensive leader’s positive feelings can rest easy. It seems that Suter will be back leading the Wild as if nothing even happened.

The Salary Cap Implications Of A Shea Weber Early Retirement

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When Shea Weber signed a 14-year, $110MM offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers in 2012, everyone knew right away that it would end badly. Yes, Weber was 27 years old and one of the top defensemen in the league, but the contract was top-heavy and carried a $7.86MM cap hit through his age-40 season. The chances of him playing to a level matching that value over a full 14 years was very slim. The Flyers knew this and specifically structured it in a way that they hoped would scare the Nashville Predators and frugal GM David Poile away – it didn’t. The Predators had just watched Ryan Suter walk in free agency and couldn’t afford to let Weber leave as well. They matched the deal and held on to their superstar defenseman.

When Weber was then traded to the Montreal Canadiens for P.K. Subban in 2016, the risk in Weber’s contract increased exponentially. The league had since banned all similarly long-term contracts – setting a limit of seven years on the open market and eight years for an extension –  nevertheless the front-loaded, cap-circumventing type that Weber had signed. To combat teams continuing to front-load contracts, the NHL implemented salary cap recapture penalties. This system punishes teams for lengthening contracts with low-salary seasons in order to lower the cap hit during prime years by issuing a salary cap charge if the player retires prior to the end of the contract, thereby negating the years that lowered his cap hit. The calculation is the difference in total salary and total cap hit over the course of the contract with which the player played with the team, divided by the number of years remaining on the contract after retirement. In Weber’s case, the scenario looks like this:

Year           Team           Cap Hit           Salary           Difference
2012-13        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2013-14        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2014-15        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2015-16        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2016-17        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2017-18        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2018-19        MTL             $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2019-20       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2020-21       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2021-22       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2022-23       MTL*           $7.857MM        $3MM          -$4.857MM
2023-24       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2024-25       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2025-26       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM

So far over the course of Weber’s contract, both Nashville and Montreal have paid him far beyond what his cap hit would suggest. If Weber was to retire today, they would both be penalized. Nashville’s total penalty is $24.572MM, while Montreal’s is fluid. However, next season marks a drop for Weber below his cap number for the remaining eight years of his contract. Now, Weber is not going to retire this off-season. However, the chances that he retires early are very high. Earlier this week, it was reported that Weber had undergone a second off-season surgery and would likely be out until mid-season. Many expected when Weber was traded to Montreal that he still had many years left of strong play in him, but it appears that the deterioration of his body has already begun. Facing a decreasing salary for the remainder of his contract and concerns about his long-term health, it would be no surprise to see Weber retire in the next two years or so nevertheless by the end of the remaining eight years. By year, here is how the penalties would play out for both Nashville and Montreal:

If Weber retires before:      Penalty per year – NSH         Penalty per year – MTL
2019-20                                          $3.51MM                                              $918K
2020-21                                          $4.1MM                                                $762K
2021-22                                          $4.91MM                                              $543K
2022-23                                          $6.14MM                                             $215K
2023-24                                           $8.19MM                                             None
2024-25                                           $12.29MM                                           None
2025-26                                           $24.57MM                                           None

Obviously, the Predators have a lot to lose if Weber retires early. It is very unlikely that Weber, if he makes it that far, is likely to retire with one or even two years left on his contract. At that point, it is likely the Canadiens would just place him on long-term injured reserve to finish his career, as has become a growing trend in the NHL. However, if Weber is unable to get over the injuries that have plagued him in Montreal, could he call it quits within the next few years and stick Nashville with a $3.5-$5MM yearly penalty? Absolutely. It is a scary possibility for the Predators and a situation worth watching as Weber battles back from injury yet again next season and beyond.

All salary and cap figures are approximations. Data courtesy of CapFriendly.com.

Injury Updates: Callahan, Capitals, Mangiapane, Suter

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Lightning winger Ryan Callahan will undergo shoulder surgery this offseason, the team announced (Twitter link).  The veteran had been out of the lineup on multiple occasions due to shoulder troubles, including two games in the opening round of the postseason against the Devils.  Callahan underperformed relative to his $5.8MM cap hit as he put up just 19 points in 67 regular season games and this operation will all but eliminate the possibility of a contract buyout as injured players are ineligible to be bought out.

Other injury notes from around the league:

  • Capitals defenseman Brooks Orpik is fully participating in Washington’s first practice in advance of Monday’s start to the Stanley Cup Final, notes NHL.com’s Tom Gulitti (Twitter link). He missed some time in Game Seven against Tampa Bay after being boarded by Cedric Paquette but it appears there are no lingering effects.  Winger Devante Smith-Pelly, who also was banged up that game, is also skating on a regular line in practice, Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post adds (via Twitter).
  • Flames winger Andrew Mangiapane is on schedule, if not slightly ahead of it, when it comes to his recovery from shoulder surgery, reports Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson. He went under the knife in mid-March after sustaining the injury in the AHL and is roughly a month away from getting back to on-ice training.  Despite being in the minors at the time, he should have a chance to crack Calgary’s lineup on a full-time basis after holding his own in ten games with the big club this past season.
  • Wild defenseman Ryan Suter is making progress in his recovery from surgery to repair his broken ankle, notes Dane Mizutani of the Pioneer Press. However, he is still several weeks away from putting any weight on that ankle let alone resuming any offseason workouts.  Suter remains optimistic that he’ll be ready to start the season but that’s far from a guarantee.

Draft Lottery’s Biggest Winner Is Buffalo’s Ristolainen

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While adding superstar prospect Rasmus Dahlin with the No. 1 overall pick in June will aid in the Buffalo Sabres rebuild a lot quicker, perhaps the biggest beneficiary will be defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen. Taken eighth overall in 2013, the blueliner has been tabbed as the team’s No. 1 defenseman since that day and treated as such as he’s averaged more than 26 minutes a game for the past three years. In fact, Ristolainen ranked fourth in the NHL this year in average ice time (ATOI) with 26:30 behind only Los Angeles Kings’ Drew Doughty, Minnesota Wild’s Ryan Suter and Ottawa Senators’ Erik Karlsson.

However, as the years have passed, it’s been quite obvious that he’s not the coveted No. 1 defenseman that they hoped he’d be. In fact, as this season wrapped up, there has been talk of moving on from him. However, everything changed Saturday when the Buffalo Sabres won the draft lottery. With Dahlin taking over the responsibilities as the team’s top defenseman next season, which is inevitable, the team may get more production out of Ristolainen with a lesser role, according to The Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy.

The scribe writes that Ristolainen has been leaned on too much over the course his career and his development has paid for it with the amount of minutes the team has forced him to play over his short career, mostly due to the fact that the Sabres have lacked any depth in quality defensemen over the years. Of course, he’s put up modest seasons, including three straight 40-point seasons, but has done nothing to earn top-flight minutes.

However, with Dahlin in the team’s rotation next season and perhaps another addition in the offseason, the Sabres will have more depth and can give Ristolainen more rest during games. Whether the right-handed defenseman is paired with the left-handed Dahlin or whether they are split into two pairs, the 23-year-old Ristolainen looks like he’s finally got the help he needed the last few years.

Throw in an improved season by Marco Scandella and a full-season from Brendan Guhle, there is a sign of hope in Buffalo. The team also is close to signing top Sweedish defenseman Lawrence Pilut and have also signed top college defenseman Will Borgen, although both could end up starting in the AHL for a while. Regardless, their blueline has a lot of promise.

 

Poll: Who Should Win The 2017-18 Norris Trophy?

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There was much debate in the hockey world yesterday when the NHL released their three finalists for the Norris Trophy. The award, given to the best defenseman in the league, always stirs up controversy of some sort over who was snubbed. This year, that honor could go to John Carlson who scored more points than any other blueliner in the league but didn’t have his name mentioned in the final group.

P.K. Subban. Drew Doughty. Victor Hedman. Who should be taking home the trophy this season? Don’t vote on who you think will win, but who should win after the season they put up. We’ll list the finalists and some of the other common nominees to see if our readership would have selected the same three nominees.

Make sure to explain your reasoning in the comment section!

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

Ryan Suter Faces Long Road To Recovery

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On Monday, the Minnesota Wild confirmed that star defenseman Ryan Suter had suffered a broken ankle and would undergo season-ending surgery. Tomorrow, Suter will go under the knife. However, there was still a lot of mystery surrounding what looked like an unassuming injury at first glance. That has now been clarified by Michael Russo of the Athletic (subscription required). The details of the injury are not pretty.

In speaking with Russo, Suter revealed that his injury, a broken right fibula in the “talus” area, was far more serious than anyone could have imagined. In fact, it is exceptionally rare for a sports injury. Suter relayed to Russo the diagnosis from doctors that “if I was a soccer player, a baseball player, a basketball player, this could basically be the end, a career-ending injury”. The fibula is vital for ankle movement and the severity of the break is most commonly seen in car accidents. If Suter’s sport of choice hadn’t been one where the players’ ankles are secured in their skates, he likely would have played his last professional game.

Even with that stroke of luck, there is still a long, difficult path facing Suter. The first step is tomorrow’s surgery, but there is then a four-month period during which Suter may not put any weight on that right leg. Only after that, sometime in August, can Suter begin rehabbing and only after much off-the-ice work can he resume skating again. That timeline is awfully close to October and the beginning of the 2018-19 season. While the Wild and their fans are understandably mourning the loss of their irreplaceable defender so close to the postseason, they may also need to consider life without their #1 blue liner to begin next season.

Ryan Suter To Undergo Surgery, Out Rest Of Season

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Though it was already assumed to be a long-term injury, the Minnesota Wild have officially announced that Ryan Suter will require surgery to repair a broken right ankle. Suter will be out for the remainder of the season.

Though the announcement doesn’t specifically mention the playoffs, one can assume that Suter won’t be able to return until 2018-19. That’s a huge blow for the Wild, as Suter is one of the most involved players in the entire league, logging almost 27 minutes a night and leading the team in both powerplay and short handed ice time.

Suter’s 51 points through 78 games actually tied a career-high, and his 22 powerplay assists put him among the league leaders. The Wild will need to find another quarterback if they’re going to have any success in the postseason.

The team is already dealing with an injury to Jared Spurgeon, which makes the loss of Suter even harder to deal with. While Carson Soucy makes his debut tonight, he’s hardly an answer for a tough first round series against the Winnipeg Jets or another tough Western Conference team.

Jared Spurgeon Out With Groin Injury

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The Minnesota Wild have been one of several teams racked with injuries in 2017-18 and they can now add another major contributor to the list. The Star Tribune’s Sarah McLellan reports that defenseman Jared Spurgeon is expected to miss at least two weeks with a groin strain. Spurgeon has missed the past two games and is likely to land on injured reserve.

Spurgeon, who teammate Mathew Dumba calls “one of the most underrated guys in the NHL”, will be missed in Minnesota. As the long-time partner of Ryan Suter on the team’s top-pair, Spurgeon is counted on for major minutes and mistake-free hockey. Spurgeon is as solid as they come, and it is no surprise that the Wild’s first game adjusting to his absence was a 7-2 rout by the Winnipeg Jets on Monday. However, the team did bounce back with a win over the Vegas Golden Knights last night, with Dumba filling in beside Suter. That will most likely be the top pair moving forward until Spurgeon is back on his feet.

The extent of the Spurgeon injury also lends some explanation to the Wild’s recent claim of old friend Nate Prosser. Prosser has nearly 300 games with Minnesota under his belt, but bolted for St. Louis this summer hoping for greater opportunity. When that opportunity never presented itself, Prosser was happy to return home and the Wild were fortunate enough to bring a familiar name back into the fold when they needed him most. Prosser could play a key role on the Minnesota blue line over the next two weeks, as could recently-recalled Ryan Murphy and young Gustav Olofsson. 

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