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Rasmus Ristolainen

Atlantic Division: Remaining RFAs

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We are less than a month away from the start of the World Cup and training camps. However, there are still 15 restricted free agents remaining, and many of them are not who you would expect to be unsigned at this point. Two NHL teams’ leading scorers, four top-four defensemen, and several other high quality players are still looking for new deals.

Let’s continue our break down of the remaining RFAs by taking a look at the Atlantic Division:

Buffalo Sabres – $8.15MM in cap space, according to Cap Friendly – Like the Anaheim Ducks, the Sabres have two RFAs remaining; also like the Ducks, it’s their third line center and number one defenseman. Zemgus Girgensons and Rasmus Ristolainen were the Sabres’ first round picks in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Ristolainen lead all Sabres defensemen with 41 points (good for fourth in team scoring) and averaged nearly three more minutes of ice time per game than the next skater. Over his three-year career he has been counted on to be an all-situation defender, starting more than 57% of his shifts in the defensive zone and still leading all Sabres defensemen in scoring over the last two seasons. The Sabres will want to lock him up long-term.

Meanwhile, Girgensons had something of a down year in 2015-16, dropping from 30 points to 18 despite playing 10 more games. Expect a one-year contract in the $1MM range as he looks to rebound.

Tampa Bay Lightning – $6.59MM in cap space, according to Cap Friendly – Lightning GM Steve Yzerman managed to re-sign Steven Stamkos and extend Victor Hedman, but has yet to sign their leading scorer from last season: Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov has put up seasons of 65 and 66 points and will be looking for a Filip Forsberg-type contract. Forsberg also was coming off back-to-back mid-60 point seasons and signed long-term in Nashville for six years at $6MM per. While the Lightning could likely make that salary work this season, it’s next summer that has to be looming large for Yzerman. The other two members of the Triplet Line, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat, and starting goalie Ben Bishop all need to be re-signed, though Bishop figures to be traded to avoid losing him for nothing in the expansion draft.

The Lightning also have defenseman Nikita Nesterov to sign. The young depth defenseman will be looking for a bigger role after the team bought out Matt Carle in June. He’ll likely sign for a short “show-me” contract to prove he can continue to be a regular on a Cup contending team.

You can read our review of the Pacific Division RFAs here.

Snapshots: Unsigned Restricted Free Agents, Trouba, Hudler

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The list of Restricted Free Agents has some serious star power on it, despite the calendar turning to August. Between Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Hampus Lindholm, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Kucherov, and Jacob Trouba, there are a handful of elite franchise building blocks without a contract. If you’re keeping count at home, that’s two legit number one defenseman, a possible number one in Trouba, and three high-end first line forwards. Quality players like Ryan Strome and Cody Ceci are also waiting to get contracts, having passed on their qualifying offers.

Here are some other snapshots from around the hockey world:

  • On That’s Hockey, TSN’s Gary Lawless reported that things are very quiet between Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets, saying the two sides are far apart on “everything… they’re apart on term, they’re apart on money, they’re apart on usage”. Trouba finds himself behind Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers on the right side, and according to Lawless he feels he should be playing with one of the team’s top defenders. A trade involving Trouba is unlikely according to Lawless.
  • Also on TSN, Travis Yost made a strong case for UFA winger Jiri Hudler, arguing that while he’s past his prime scoring days, Hudler still has a very positive effect on his teammates. Hudler raises his team’s shooting percentage by 2.44 per cent when he’s on the ice. That ranks fourth in the NHL since 2010, behind superstars Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, and the now-retired Martin St. Louis. We ranked Hudler 18th on our Top 50 Free Agents list back in June, and estimated a four-year, $16MM contract. Look for him to sign a much less expensive one-year pact with a goal-hungry team to prove he’s still got it.

NHL Notes: RFA Defensemen

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As we mentioned earlier this week, there are several very talented Restricted Free Agents (RFAs) who have yet to sign contracts for next season. Of the 24 RFA defensemen who played in the NHL last season, 15 of them averaged more than 15 minutes per game (minimum 25 GP). Despite the high value of young capable defensemen (see Larsson, Adam), it is the their teams who appear to have the upper hand in negotiations.

Let’s take a look at the top five unsigned defensemen:

1. Hampus Lindholm – Anaheim Ducks – The Ducks number one defenseman, Lindholm averaged 22:00 minutes per night last season with superior possession numbers. His 28 points were 54th among defensemen, but Lindholm is still a bona fide top-pairing option. Lindholm is likely looking for a long-term contract in the $5-6MM range, similar to the Morgan Rielly ($5MM, Seth Jones ($5.4MM), and Nick Leddy ($5.5MM). The Ducks would probably prefer something lower, in the Travis Hamonic ($3.86MM), Oscar Klefbom ($4.17MM), and Justin Faulk ($4.83MM) range. Anaheim is a budget team, and is already only $8.4MM away from the cap ceiling with Lindholm and Rickard Rakell still to sign. Lindholm is not eligible for arbitration, and an offer sheet seems unlikely given the current NHL climate.

2. Tyson Barrie – Colorado Avalanche – Barrie seems to be constantly featured in trade rumors, mainly due to his high-end offensive ability (49 points last season) and coach Patrick Roy’s apparent lack of confidence in him. It doesn’t help that the Avalanche have just $8.3MM in cap space before Barrie and Mikhail Grigorenko’s arbitration hearings in late July. Barrie and his agent don’t need to look any further than teammate Eric Johnson’s $6MM salary for a starting point; Barrie outscored Johnson by 22 points in similar time-on-ice.

3. Rasmus Ristolainen – Buffalo Sabres – Ristolainen lead the Sabres in ice-time by just under 500 minutes. He was also fourth in team scoring with 41 points. He’s also extremely big at 6’4, 207 lbs and mobile. Ristolainen is already the Sabres best defenseman, and he’ll only be 22 in October. The Sabres will look to sign him long-term somewhere in the Faulk to Rielly range. The Sabres have approximately $11MM in cap space and still need to lock up Marcus Foligno and Zemgus Girgensons.

4. Jacob Trouba – Winnipeg Jets – Trouba is in an interesting situation in Winnipeg: he’s considered a future top-pairing player, and is big, mobile, and right-handed. However, he’s blocked from playing top-four minutes by fellow right-handers Dustin Byfulgien and Tyler Myers. Trouba has played the left side before, but like most players performs better on his natural side. There seems to be two options for Trouba; he can sign a bridge-deal and earn a big payday in two seasons when Mark Stuart and Toby Enstrom are free agents, or he can holdout for the big payday now. There was some talk last month about the Bruins looking at Trouba as an offer sheet candidate, but that seems to have passed. He’s not eligible for arbitration, so the ball is in Winnipeg’s court.

5. Danny DeKeyser – Detroit Red Wings – With Niklas Kronwall turning 35 last season, DeKeyser appears poised to be the next big man on the Red Wings blueline. The two defensemen lead the team in ice time, and DeKeyser will likely pass Krowall in that regard next season. The 25-year-old DeKeyser put up just 20 points last season, however Mike Green was the only defenseman who scored more. DeKeyser is scheduled for arbitration on July 28, but could very likely come to a longer agreement with the Red Wings before then.

Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres

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The 2015-2016 Buffalo Sabres finished with a 35-36-11 record, good for 81 points and 7th in the Atlantic. After finishing dead last the season before, the Sabres improved their record by 27 points. They will no doubt be looking to continue their upward climb and shift their rebuild into the next gear.

Cap Space: $21,871,309 (according to CapFriendly)

Key UFAs: G Chad Johnson and F Jimmy Vesey. After offseason acquisition Robin Lehner went down with an ankle injury in the Sabres’ opening game, Johnson stepped in and held down the fort admirably. He finished with a .920 SV% and a 2.36 GAA in 45 games. Given that Lehner is still an unproven commodity, the Sabres still need a capable backup in case things go sour. The Sabres have made big splashes in the past two off-seasons, so it is not be out of the question for the Sabres to go after a high-profile goalie and relegate Lehner to a backup role. That would leave Johnson as the odd man out, especially with young prospect Linus Ullmark waiting in the wings.

The Sabres traded for Jimmy Vesey’s negotiating rights on Monday June 20th, which we reported here. Vesey won the Hobey Baker Award as the NCAA’s top hockey player, and was originally drafted by the Nashville Predators in 2012. Nashville traded the young prospect after they failed to sign him late in the season. Despite the trade however, Vesey’s camp maintains that he still plans to explore unrestricted free agency.

Other UFAs: F David Legwand, D Carlo Colaiacovo.

Key RFAs: F Marcus Foligno, F Zemgus Girgensons, and D Rasmus Ristolainen. Foligno is fresh off an ELC and looking for a reasonable raise as he enters his RFA years. The young forward finished last year with 10G and 23P in 75 games. Girgensons is also coming off an ELC and 7G and 18P in 71 games. While the Sabres would like to bring him back, the Latvian centerman is rumored to be considering signing in the KHL. Finally, Finnish defenseman Ristolainen finished fourth in team scoring with 9G and 41P in 82 games. He lead the team in playing time with over 25 minutes—three minutes more than any other player. Re-signing the former first-rounder is Buffalo’s main RFA priority.

Other RFAs: D Casey Nelson, D Jake McCabe, G Jason Kasdorf.

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