Free Agent Focus: Colorado Avalanche
Free agency is now a little more than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Colorado Avalanche.
Key Restricted Free Agents
D Bowen Byram – Although injuries once again took a large bite out of Byram’s games played total this season, a solid sophomore campaign cemented the 2019 fourth-overall pick as the third-best defenseman on perhaps the most dynamic ‘D’ corps in the league. The 21-year-old bested defense partner Samuel Girard in points per game, average time on ice, and plus-minus this season, although more advanced metrics weren’t kind to either Girard’s or Byram’s defensive impacts this year. With Byram still just 21 years old, a long-term deal seems appetizing to keep his cap hit lower as the Upper Limit rises over the years. However, with a significant injury list that includes multiple concussions, Colorado could very well opt for a two or three-year deal to lower long-term risk. He would again be a restricted free agent upon expiry. While cap space won’t be a huge immediate concern for Colorado with captain Gabriel Landeskog‘s injury, they’d still like to have money to spend in free agency to improve their scoring depth. Expect a cap hit in the $4-5MM range on Byram’s next deal, likely around three seasons.
F Alex Newhook – Newhook didn’t meet the lofty expectations set for him in 2022-23 after he was slated as the team’s second-line center heading into opening night. He was quickly surpassed on the depth chart by a player who we’ll mention later on in this piece, and he recorded a marginal 30 points whilst playing in all 82 games this season. The 22-year-old is still showing flashes of his 16th overall billing, so it’s not time to give up hope on him reaching that stage in 2023-24. However, it shouldn’t be an assumption for the second straight season – Colorado is likely to fill out the second-line center spot in free agency, and Newhook’s next cap hit will likely reflect that of bottom-six expectations. Given where Newhook’s at in his development, he’ll likely petition for a short-term deal, setting himself up for a payday from the team once he does reach his ceiling.
F Denis Malgin – Malgin wasn’t anyone you’d expect to see described as a key player at the beginning of this season, but after an early-season move from the Toronto Maple Leafs, he was a capable bottom-six scorer on a team sorely needing offensive acumen at the lower end of their lineup. Scoring 11 goals in just 42 games with Colorado, he finished ninth on the team in goals despite not arriving until close to Christmas. He’s been around the block, playing over 250 NHL games (including a stint in Switzerland that kept him out of the league for two seasons), and is in his final season of RFA eligibility. There likely isn’t much room for growth in Malgin’s game, but Colorado would do well to keep him around on an affordable two-year deal to give themselves some options when building out their third and fourth lines.
Other RFAs: D Wyatt Aamodt, G Justus Annunen, D Nate Clurman, D Ryan Merkley, F Ben Meyers, F Sampo Ranta
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F J.T. Compher – Arguably the savior of Colorado’s season, Compher broke out in a big way in 2022-23. He’ll be one of the most desirable free-agent centers in a weak market after playing over 20 minutes a night, recording 17 goals and 52 points in 82 games. The 28-year-old did shift to center almost full-time this year but is still proficient enough on the wing, so if Colorado goes out and signs a Ryan O’Reilly type to sit on the depth chart behind Nathan MacKinnon, it’s not an exclusionary factor to bringing Compher back. He’ll be earning a significant increase on his $3.5MM cap hit, however, likely to the tune of $1MM or $2MM.
F Evan Rodrigues – Another possible returnee, Rodrigues had his best offensive campaign to date in 2022-23. He would’ve set career highs had he played in all 82 games, posting 0.57 points per game (39 in 69). Entrusted with top-six minutes, the 29-year-old gave Colorado stellar value on his one-year, $2MM ‘show me’ deal signed last September. He could very easily double his cap hit this offseason, especially if another team pries his services away.
F Lars Eller – Now 34, Eller’s still got what it takes to be the ideal archetype of a veteran bottom-six center. Acquired at the trade deadline from the Washington Capitals, the Dane is on track to hit 1,000 games next season. He’s never been a terribly consistent offensive talent from season to season, but his 23 points in 84 games this year were his lowest total in a full season since 2010-11. He’s best suited for a fourth-line role at this point, a spot Colorado may want to keep open for a younger player in their system. Finances shouldn’t be an issue if they do want to retain him, as he shouldn’t command much more than $1MM this offseason.
D Erik Johnson – The longest-tenured member of the Avalanche organization likely won’t be signing anywhere else this offseason. The 2006 first-overall pick waited until the playoffs to score his first goal of the season, recording just eight assists in 63 regular-season games, but Johnson has become one of the most-loved leaders in the Avs room and has stuck through the ups and downs of the franchise over the past decade-plus. After wrapping up a seven-year, $42MM contract, he could be brought back at league minimum.
Other UFAs: F Andrew Cogliano, F Alex Galchenyuk, F Darren Helm, F Charles Hudon, D Josh Jacobs, D Jack Johnson, G Keith Kinkaid, F Mikhail Maltsev (Group VI UFA), F Matt Nieto
Projected Cap Space
One thing’s for sure – general manager Chris MacFarland will have some room to play, although not for a great reason. Landeskog’s continuing knee issues will keep him out for 2023-24, and while they won’t have their captain on the ice, they’ll be able to repurpose his $7MM cap hit via LTIR. CapFriendly has Colorado slated for just over $20MM in projected pre-season cap space, meaning they’ll have an eight-digit figure to throw around in unrestricted free agency after locking Byram, Newhook, and Malgin up to their deals.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
PHR Mailbag: Sabres, Jets, Bruins, Draft, Flyers, Officiating
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include discussion on Buffalo’s goaltending situation, Philadelphia’s new front office, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our mailbag from this weekend; there will also be one that runs tomorrow where your question might be answered.
sabres3277: As the Sabres approach the NHL Draft do you think they will address the goaltending position via a trade/free agent to ensure that D. Levi has a veteran partner and mentor? I believe the Sabres need to acquire a solid veteran defenseman to bolster the young defense. Thoughts?
When it comes to the goaltending, I’m a little on the fence. I think they’d like to do something but there’s a fine needle to thread here. John Gibson might be available but he has four years left. I don’t think Buffalo wants to do that. Connor Hellebuyck is on an expiring deal next season but I don’t believe the Sabres would want to pay the freight of a long-term contract. Maybe Nashville moves Juuse Saros if they’re going to head into a rebuild but that’s hardly a guarantee. I don’t see another trade option that makes enough of a difference to matter.
In free agency, Tristan Jarry is out there but he’s not taking a short-term contract in all likelihood unless his market completely tanks. (And if it does, a pillow deal in Buffalo would actually be pretty intriguing.) It thins out pretty quickly after that. Maybe Semyon Varlamov would be of interest with the idea of being a platoon goalie instead of a strict backup and he wouldn’t need a long-term commitment. He might make the most sense to me to partner with either Devon Levi or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (it wouldn’t shock me if Levi got some run in Rochester where he could start the bulk of the games over Eric Comrie) and he could be an upgrade on what Craig Anderson brought to the table this season.
As for the defenseman, I certainly agree with you. I had that as one of the items on their Offseason Checklist last weekend. They have a decent top four that should continue to improve but getting one extra second-pairing-caliber blueliner would be a big hedge against injuries and inconsistency from their youngsters while also letting them balance out the ice time a little bit. That could pay dividends down the stretch next season.
joebad34: Sabres question: It is obvious V. Olofsson will be on the trading block. His upside is 25-30 potential goals. His downside is business decisions heading into corners; that being said, can he be moved for a right-shot d-man or just a draft pick or two? What would the value be?
Frankly, I don’t think Victor Olofsson’s trade value is going to be all that high. Here’s a player in the prime of his career with a strong offensive game…that is seeing his ice time dip each year to the point of being a healthy scratch at times. This is called not moving Olofsson at his high point in value, especially when he carries a $4.75MM cap charge.
Quality right-shot defenders are in short supply in high demand. Wingers with a decent scoring touch but some warts in their all-around game are in much greater supply and much lower demand. If Buffalo was to get a quality right-shot defender in a trade here, it’d be surprising unless Olofsson is merely salary ballast with the Sabres sending out a strong pick and/or prospect in the deal as well. As for moving him for draft picks? I don’t see that happening; a team with $4.75MM in cap space is likely to decide that they’d be better off spending that on a free agent than trading assets for Olofsson unless it was a later-round selection which wouldn’t be a great return for him by any stretch.
If the Sabres decide that they need to move on from Olofsson, I think the likeliest scenario is a swap of ‘change of scenery’ players. They’d get someone else on an expiring contract at a similar price tag with the hope that the other player will fit in better than Buffalo and Olofsson will do better with the other team. I don’t think he has much more value than that in this cap-strapped marketplace.
rdiddy75: Do the Jets get rid of trio of Dubois, Scheifele, and Wheeler and retool the team?
It certainly feels like they need to do something, doesn’t it? The way they went out in the playoffs followed by Rick Bowness’ pointed comments would seem to suggest they can’t just run it back. But GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has made it known that he believes in this core group and seemingly indicated in his press conference that as long as they get to the playoffs, they’ve accomplished something. (At least, that was one of my takeaways from his comments.)
With that in mind, I don’t think the Jets are going to choose to blow up the core just yet. I suspect they’re willing to move on from Blake Wheeler but how much of a trade market is there going to be for him at $8.25MM? As a small market team, I’m not sure paying him $5.5MM over two years not to play for them is a move they’re going to want to make. Maybe there’s a swap with them retaining up to half of his contract available but the return still won’t be great.
As for Pierre-Luc Dubois, I think they might hold onto him. If you’re a team interested in acquiring him, how much are you willing to pay up if you believe there’s a strong chance he tests free agency? Probably a first-rounder, a decent prospect, and either another pick or salary ballast. But they can do that deal at the trade deadline where Winnipeg can retain half the contract, allowing the acquiring team to be able to afford another player they’d have had to clear out if they acquiring Dubois now. Again, it comes back to my belief that Cheveldayoff thinks this core is good enough to be in the mix. If he can get the same types of offers in February than he can now, why not run it back and hope for a hot start that convinces some pending free agents (even if it’s not Dubois) to re-sign?
Mark Scheifele is an interesting case. The run-it-back logic for Dubois applies here somewhat although with Scheifele, is he willing to sign a long-term extension this summer with Winnipeg or elsewhere? If so, that changes the picture. With the UFA market not being strong, if Scheifele is willing to sign a new deal now, he becomes the top middleman available and Winnipeg should be able to get a significant return, one that would justify moving him now. But if Cheveldayoff thinks that a strong first half could persuade Scheifele to stay in Winnipeg, it wouldn’t shock me if he holds on to him as well.
Long story short, yes, I think there’s a shakeup coming in Winnipeg and it wouldn’t shock me if none of those players are around a year from now. I’m just not convinced it’s happening this summer but rather closer to the trade deadline unless they can get a king’s ransom for their two centers in the next six weeks or so.
SkidRowe: 1) If you were the Bruins’ GM, how would you approach the future?
2) The Bruins’ long-term core (three or more years remaining) is Pastrnak, Zacha, Coyle, McAvoy, Lindholm, Carlo. Is that good enough to rebuild around?
1) What’s the saying, all good things must come to an end? That’s where things are for Boston. They don’t have many draft picks, nor do they have a particularly strong prospect pool. Frankly, that’s to be expected from a team that has tried to contend for this long. So in the short term, I’d be looking at trying to recover some of those futures.
Matt Grzelcyk and Derek Forbort are on expiring contracts and should have some value. I talked about in a recent mailbag the hypothetical trade value of Jeremy Swayman but if you’re going to take a short-term step back, maybe it’s Linus Ullmark that they should look to sell high on. As noted earlier, there isn’t a great free agent market for goaltenders nor are there a lot of viable starters that could be traded for. Coming off a likely Vezina-winning year, he’d bring back some quality futures as well. Up front, I’d explore moving Taylor Hall who doesn’t really fit their long-term core plans. If Jake DeBrusk isn’t part of those long-term plans, he’d be on the sell list too. Making some of those moves would help free up some cap flexibility to round out the rest of their roster while stockpiling some much-needed futures.
If they had a bit more cap space and a first-round pick in the next couple of years, I could make a case to justify trying to trade for someone like Scheifele and extending him even though it runs counter to everything I just wrote as a key center is something they really need. If they could get that, do it and figure out the rest later. However, I don’t think they have the trade assets to do that right now. But make some of these seller moves and maybe they’ll have a shot at a move like that a year from now.
2) It depends on what you mean by good enough. Is that the future core of another perennial contender? Probably not. For me, the true core would be David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, and Hampus Lindholm with Swayman (under team control for three more years) part of it if he’s still around next season. That’s a foundation that should be good enough to hang around the Wild Card mix but they need a true impact center if they want a shot at returning to contender status.
Unclemike1526: With the talent in this year’s draft, I don’t see the possibility of the Hawks trading up far from 19. Maybe a couple of spaces even with four 2nd rounders and two 3rd rounders. How far do you think they can realistically move up? Obviously, they’re not trading Bedard, But I’m sure they would love to move up from 19. Barring that, who are some guys they could use those picks to trade for players already in the NHL, that they might like?
It has gotten awfully difficult to trade up lately, especially last year where the only pick swap in the first round was 11 for 27, 34, and 45 with San Jose deciding that they were better off with adding some extra picks to a prospect pool that isn’t the deepest. That was in a weak draft. In a strong one, I could see teams being more protective of those early selections. If Chicago wanted to move up a few spots, I think there’s a way to do it that would get them to somewhere between 14-18 but it would be dependent on one of those teams losing out on the player that they were hoping to get. Every year, we hear GMs talk about how they were trying to trade up (or back into the late first round) and just couldn’t find anyone willing to do so. That could very well happen here.
Honestly, I’m not sure that their best asset to try to move up is their extra picks. Instead, I think their cap space could be. For example, Pittsburgh (at 14) is a team that could benefit from creating some cap room. If the Blackhawks were willing to take on Mikael Granlund’s remaining two years, for example, would that be good enough for the Penguins to slide down to 19; is the extra cap space worth dropping down? I suppose Calgary at 16 could be an option as well as they’re quite capped out although there isn’t an obvious contract to fit into a framework like this. Vancouver at 11 could be a possibility as well although Chicago would probably have to take a sizable deal back for the Canucks to slide eight spots.
As for flipping those second-rounders for players, there are too many players to list. With so many teams being tight to the cap, they could get some good players if they wanted to flip those picks. I just don’t think they’re intending to do that. Getting the top pick isn’t going to flip the switch and end the rebuild. They’re not a player or two away from being a playoff contender so why deviate from the course now? Get those prospects in the system and then when they are ready to start adding to their roster again, they can deal from their picks or their prospect pool for those players. I could see Chicago trading out from 55 outright to get a 2024 second-rounder, giving them a possible chip to move for a player at that time if they think they’re ready to flip that switch next offseason.
Offseason Checklist: Calgary Flames
The offseason has arrived for all but the three teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Calgary.
2022-23 was not the season that the Flames were hoping for. A roster that underwent some significant changes this summer still bolstered a strong lineup on paper but too many players struggled, resulting in them just missing out on the postseason. There have already been changes as Brad Treliving opted not to return as GM while Don Maloney, while acting as interim GM, dismissed head coach Darryl Sutter. Now, they’re on their third GM in six weeks with Craig Conroy taking over this week and he’ll have plenty of work to do this offseason.
Hire A Head Coach
Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first. With Sutter gone, the Flames are once again in need of a new bench boss. It’s a common theme for Calgary as the last coach to be behind the bench for 200 straight games was Bob Hartley and he was let go back in 2016. (If you’re curious who the last Calgary coach to coach for 300 straight games in a single stint, you have to go all the way back to the late Bob Johnson in the 1980s.)
Conroy, who has been with the Flames’ front office for 13 years, is familiar with the internal options, of which there are a few. Associate coach Kirk Muller has experience running an NHL bench back with Carolina while Ryan Huska has been an assistant for the past five seasons and was believed to be a finalist for the job in Detroit last season. Meanwhile, Mitch Love, their coach at AHL Calgary, has won the Louis AR Pieri Memorial Award as Coach of the Year for the past two seasons, his only two seasons behind the bench.
Externally, the usual candidates are fairly well-known at this point, ranging from veterans like Gerard Gallant and Peter Laviolette to coaches looking for a second opportunity such as Andrew Brunette and Travis Green, plus first-time hopefuls like Spencer Carbery, Alex Tanguay, and Jay Leach. Getting back to their offensive underperformance this season, it stands to reason that they’ll be looking for a head coach that’s offensive-minded to help get the most out of their core group and turn that weakness around.
Extension Discussions
During his introductory press conference, Conroy indicated that it “doesn’t make sense” to enter next season with as many potential unrestricted free agents as there currently are. It’s not as if there are one or two to deal with either; there are seven of some significance.
The most prominent one that Conroy will have to deal with is Elias Lindholm. The 28-year-old is only one season removed from a 42-goal campaign, plays big minutes on both the power play and penalty kill, and consistently wins faceoffs at an above-average rate. Lindholm isn’t thought of by all as a number one center but he’d fit that role on quite a few teams. He has been on a team-friendly $4.85MM for the last five years with one more season to go. It’s safe to say he’ll be getting several million more on this next contract, one that has a good chance to be a max-term agreement as well. There are plenty of teams that would love to add Lindholm this summer in a weak UFA market so if Lindholm expresses a desire either to test free agency in 2024 or indicates that he’s likely to move on, Conroy might opt to move him quickly.
Two other forwards that need to be looked at are long-time center Mikael Backlund and winger Tyler Toffoli. Both players are coming off career years offensively which will certainly complicate things. Backlund will hit the market next year at the age of 35 and there will be questions as to how much longer he can play a top-six role which will go a long way toward determining his next salary. He’s currently on a $5.35MM deal and if Backlund thinks he has another strong year or two offensively in him, he could be looking for a small raise. As for Toffoli, he has fit in quite well since being acquired last season and has reached 20 goals seven times in the last nine years, averaging 27 over the last three. His AAV is $4.25MM on a deal that looked to be a bargain from the day he signed it and he could push to land closer to $6MM on a new multi-year agreement.
On the back end, no fewer than four regulars can test the market in 2024, headlined by Noah Hanifin. Aside from 2021-22, his offense has never really stood out but even so, he can log heavy minutes and will be in the prime of his career that year at 27. He’s at $4.85MM now and a long-term extension should see him net more than teammate Mackenzie Weegar ($6.5MM) to once again become their top-paid defender. If he’s not willing to re-sign and he’s put on the trade block, Conroy will have no shortage of interest.
The other three rearguards aren’t as significant of a concern. Chris Tanev is an effective shutdown defender but his market might not be as strong next year with teams starting to shy away from those stay-at-home players which could move his cost below his current $4.5MM price tag. Nikita Zadorov has been year-to-year for the most part for several seasons (2023-24 being the lone exception) so there isn’t a ton of risk having him in a walk year while Oliver Kylington will be returning after a year off; he’ll need time to show if his 2021-22 performance was an outlier or a sign of things to come.
Suffice it to say, with this many notable players eligible for extensions as of July 1st, expect Conroy to be reaching out to the agents of those players soon if he hasn’t already done so.
Add Top-Six Forward
This was a stated goal by Conroy in his press conference and with the team finishing in the bottom half of the league in goals scored, it makes sense. While there is legitimate room for optimism that there should be some bounce-back performances under a new head coach (I don’t think anyone expects another 55-point effort from Jonathan Huberdeau after being over a point per game for four seasons in a row), simply running it back with this exact core would also be risky.
To that end, Conroy also indicated that he was likely to move a core piece out. This also makes some sense considering his comments about the 2024 UFA class as there’s a good chance that not all of those players will want to re-sign this summer; if Conroy wants to avoid the risk of another Johnny Gaudreau situation, it could be those unwilling to extend now that move. Speculatively, Andrew Mangiapane – signed for two more years at a $5.8MM cap charge – could be someone they look to move in a player-for-player swap.
Create Cap Space
It’s one thing for Conroy to want to add a top-six piece but it’s another to be able to afford to do it. Frankly, they can’t afford one with over $82MM on the books already, per CapFriendly, with a few roster spots to fill. With the Upper Limit projected to be at or close to $83.5MM next season, that’s not exactly a workable scenario. That’s why it makes sense for their top-six addition up front to come at the expense of one of their 2024 UFA class as frankly, they can’t afford one otherwise.
That possible move notwithstanding, Conroy will need to free up a few million more in cap space. One way to chip away at that would be to move backup goaltender Daniel Vladar who will begin his new two-year deal next season at a $2.2MM price tag. Going to a cheaper second-stringer or promoting prospect Dustin Wolf would free up a little over $1MM, enough to fill at least one of those remaining roster spots.
Another spot could be to chip away at the back end which, with Kylington’s return, will cost them over $27.25MM, putting them near the top of the league in spending at that position. Trying to move out someone like Zadorov for a cheaper option or for a future asset would certainly help free up some wiggle room. Accordingly, as much as Conroy will be looking to add this summer, he almost certainly is going to need to subtract from it as well.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Focus: Boston Bruins
Free agency is now a little more than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Boston Bruins.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Trent Frederic – Frederic earned a full-time role on the Bruins this season, which is an accomplishment when you consider the team won 65 games in the regular season, setting an NHL record. The 25-year-old center was a late first round draft pick in 2016 and just had his best NHL season. He scored 17 goals and 31 points, adding some offensive punch while routinely playing on the team’s fourth line.
Frederic is coming off a two-year contract where he earned just over $1MM per season. He signed that contract before he even became a regular in the lineup, so after scoring nearly 20 goals he will be looking for a big raise, and a bigger role on the ice as well. He has arbitration rights and a decent argument to make $2.5 – $3MM with his offensive numbers.
G Jeremy Swayman – Technically the team’s backup goaltender, Swayman was pretty busy, playing 37 games for the league leading Bruins. He posted a 2.27 GAA and a .920 SV%. Though he is just completing his entry-level contract, the 24 year old has played 88 career NHL games and has a 2.24 GAA and .920 SV% in that time. He has a great argument for a large raise on his $925k salary, and could earn as much as $3MM on a short-term deal which would give him a chance to really prove himself before cashing in on a longer contract.
Others RFAs: Samuel Asselin, Shane Bowers, Jakub Lauko, Marc McLaughlin, Kai Wissmann, Brandon Bussi, Michael DiPietro, Kyle Keyser
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Patrice Bergeron – Yet another Selke nomination (and likely winning) season in the books for Bergeron as he continues his reign as the best defensive forward in the game. The only question is, will he continue to play or is his career coming to a close? He played this season on a one-year contract with a cap hit of $2.5MM but a total value of $5MM when you include bonuses. Of course, the veteran is worth every penny, but is he going to sign another team-friendly deal?
At 37 years of age, and a long wait after the Bruins season ended to embrace his teammates, it appears Bergeron may be considering retirement instead of a return to the Bruins in 2023-24.
F David Krejci – Like Bergeron, Krejci played on a team-friendly deal this past season, but also appears to be considering the end of his playing career. He earned just $1MM in salary last season plus $2MM in bonuses, and scored 16 goals and 56 points in 70 games. The 37-year-old center played the 2021-22 season in Czechia and could be heading back there next season as well.
F Tyler Bertuzzi – Bertuzzi was a trade deadline pickup of the Bruins and could be in for a big payday if he decides to hit the open market this offseason. He fit in perfectly in Boston, scoring 16 points in 21 regular season games and ten points in seven playoff games with the Bruins. A bit of a scrappy winger, Bertuzzi adds a lot more than just offense and could capitalize on a rather weak free agent class this offseason.
The 28-year-old winger made $4.75MM for the past two seasons and is likely looking to add another $2MM or so to that on his next contract after a strong run with the Bruins and a 30-goal and 62-point season in 68 games in 2021-22. The Bruins will need to decide if they want to commit that to a winger, or hold onto that cap space to find centers.
F Nick Foligno – Foligno signed a two-year contract with the Bruins in 2021 and though he ended up being overpaid during that time, he did fill a valuable role on the team as an experienced winger who plays a scrappy style and adds a bit of scoring from the fourth line. The 35 year old had ten goals and 26 points in 60 regular season games and would be willing to return to Boston at a fraction of the $3.8MM salary he earned for the past two seasons.
F Garnet Hathaway – Another trade deadline pickup, Hathaway played on the team’s bottom six while bringing energy, physicality and strong defensive play. He also scored 22 points in 84 games split between the Washington Capitals and Bruins. Hathaway signed a four-year contract with a cap hit of $1.5MM with the Capitals in 2019 and played well in that time, earning himself a raise on his next contract. At 31 years of age, he may not get another four year deal, but a two or three year contract with a cap hit of $2MM would make sense, though the Bruins may look to spend their money elsewhere.
D Dmitry Orlov – Orlov was an elite fit on the Bruins lineup, earning the moniker (Orr)lov during his short stint in Boston. He arrived with Hathaway in a trade from the Capitals and clicked immediately on the left defense, scoring 17 points in 23 regular season games and eight more points in seven postseason contests. The Bruins already have big money committed to Hampus Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy on the blue line and may not have the space to retain Orlov.
The 31-year-old defenseman is arguably the most valuable player eligible to become a free agent this offseason, and would be wise to see what offers are out there for him. It has been suggested he wants to return to Washington, but wherever he ends up, he will sign a long-term agreement and it will surely be with a larger cap hit than the $5.1MM he has been earning since 2017. If he tests the open market, he could earn as much as $7MM on a five year contract.
Other UFAs: Tomas Nosek, Matt Filipe, Joona Koppanen, Vinni Lettieri, Chris Wagner, Connor Clifton, Jack Ahcan, Connor Carrick, Anton Stralman, Nick Wolff
Projected Cap Space
The Bruins show just under $5MM in cap space this offseason but they have some considerable holes to fill. If Bergeron and Krejci both leave the NHL, the Bruins are without their top two centers. Bertuzzi, Orlov and Hathaway were all trade deadline acquisitions but there is little chance they find the room to keep any of them with their limited space. Swayman has been excellent for them, and is just coming into his own at the NHL level, but will they be able to find space to keep him or does he get traded? Ideally, the Bruins would find a way to move Mike Reilly‘s contract which has one year left on it at $3MM. This would open up a bit of space to re-sign some key players and fill out their roster. It will be an interesting offseason in Boston with so many holes to fill and not many dollars to spend.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Free Agent Focus: Arizona Coyotes
Free agency is now a little more than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Arizona Coyotes.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Christian Fischer – Fischer initially looked like a future top-six point producer for the Coyotes after being drafted early in the second round of the 2015 NHL Draft. He scored 15 goals and 33 points in 79 games as a 20-year-old rookie in 2017-18. Unfortunately, he has not reached those totals again in his career, though he is coming off his second best offensive season. The 26 year old scored 13 goals and 27 points in 80 games and will now look for a bit of a raise.
At 6-foot-2 and 214 pounds, Fischer brings size and a bit of physicality to the ice, which gives him a little more value than just his offense. Fischer is coming off a one-year contract with a $1.125MM cap hit which he signed after scoring five goals and ten points in 53 games in the 2021-22 season. After basically doubling his offensive output on a per-game basis, Fischer will likely look to double his salary as well and try to get a few years of term on his deal as well.
F Matias Maccelli – Maccelli had one of the quietest strong seasons in the NHL this year. A bit of an unknown in hockey circles, Maccelli put together a strong rookie season and earned some mentions in Calder Trophy talks. He was not one of the three finalists, but once the ballots are released, I’m sure he will be one of the next few players on the list.
The 22 year old Finnish forward was a fourth round pick of the Coyotes in 2019 and has a strong AHL season in 2021-22 but really broke out with the Coyotes this season. He scored 11 goals and 49 points in 64 games which put him third on the team in points. He is just coming off his entry-level contract so he does not have arbitration rights yet which does not give the player much leverage. However, his point total will give him some reason to ask for a big raise, though the team will likely look for a bridge deal to see if he can repeat his offensive output while keeping his restricted free agent status following his next contract. A two-year deal with a cap hit of $2MM could make sense for both sides.
F Jack McBain – McBain was a third round pick of the Minnesota Wild but signed with the Coyotes after a four-year NCAA career at Boston College. While he developed into a star player at the college level, he is still just finding his way in the NHL. The 23 year old just wrapped up his first full NHL season by scoring 12 goals and 26 points in 82 games.
He has now completed his two-year entry-level contract but he burned the first year by playing ten NHL games following his college season ending just over a year ago. That means he does not have a ton of pro experience and not a lot of reason to ask for a big raise. The Coyotes were willing to give the young player a full-time NHL role right out of college and he would be wise to re-sign at a cap hit around $1M to continue developing his game in the best league in the world.
G Connor Ingram – Ingram earned the backup role for the Coyotes and played well behind a team that was not the greatest defensively. He suited up for 27 games and while his 3.37 GAA does not look great, he had a decent .907 SV% while facing a high quality of shots against. He will look for a small raise on his $733k cap hit from the past three seasons.
Other RFAs: Jan Jenik, Nathan Smith, Cameron Crotty, Ivan Prosvetov, David Tendeck
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Laurent Dauphin – Dauphin has proven to be a capable scorer at the AHL level in his career, but has not broken through to show he is a full-time NHL player yet. He played 21 games with the Coyotes this season and had just one point. The 28-year-old center now has 17 points in 94 career NHL games, though he did score 41 points in 48 AHL games this season.
Dauphin will sign another two-way contract with some team at a league minimum NHL salary but is destined for waivers at the start of next season on his way to another strong AHL campaign.
F Brett Ritchie – One part of the infamous brother trade that sent Brett to Arizona and Nick to Calgary, this Ritchie could now hit the open market. He had eight goals and 13 points in 50 games split between the Flames and Coyotes last season and will now look to sign another league minimum two-way deal for the upcoming season.
D Connor Mackey – Also traded from Calgary to Arizona midseason, Mackey was a promising college free agent just a few years ago and could prove to be valuable depth for a team like the Coyotes next season. He is currently playing at the World Championships after scoring seven points in 30 NHL games and his 6-foot-2 frame allows him to defend his side of the ice. He is a bit of a late bloomer, signing out of college at 24, and he is likely looking for a short term deal at league minimum as well.
Other UFAs: Michael Carcone, Bokondji Imama, Steven Kampfer
Projected Cap Space
Cap space won’t be an issue for Arizona this summer. In fact, they are going to have to be aggressive to spend to the cap floor. They have $27MM in cap space and need to spend about $6MM just to reach the league’s minimum salary for next season. They have been stockpiling draft picks and prospects but do not look to be ready to contend just yet. They will need to sign a few free agents or take on another dead contract like they already have with Shea Weber, Bryan Little and Jakub Voracek just to eat up cap space next season.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Free Agent Focus: Anaheim Ducks
Free agency is now a little more than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We begin our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Anaheim Ducks.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Trevor Zegras – After finishing as the runner-up in Calder Trophy voting last season, Zegras took a small step forward this season, setting new benchmarks in assists (42) and points (65) while matching his goal total from 2021-22. That allowed him to lead the team in scoring this season. As a center, the 22-year-old is well-positioned to land a significant long-term deal if that’s the way he chooses to go. A max-term agreement could very well push the AAV past the $8MM mark. However, with still five years of team control remaining (he didn’t play enough in 2020-21 to accrue a season of service time for UFA purposes), it’s possible that one or both sides look to a shorter-term bridge deal. That would lower the AAV to somewhere in the $6MM range for now but potentially set Zegras up to push for much more down the road in a more favorable cap environment. Whichever route they take, a big payday is coming his way.
F Troy Terry – In 2021-22, Terry narrowly edged out Zegras for the team lead in points. This season, the tables were flipped but the 25-year-old still put up his second straight 60-point campaign after having just 48 career points over his first 129 NHL appearances. One of the goals for Terry this year would have been to show that his breakout year wasn’t a fluke. Mission accomplished on that front and he is set to reap the benefits. Two years away from UFA eligibility, Terry will have arbitration eligibility this summer and it’s likely that GM Pat Verbeek will be looking to do a long-term agreement and avoid the potential for a hearing. After playing on an AAV of $1.45MM the last three seasons, Terry’s next deal could more than quadruple that cap charge.
D Jamie Drysdale – At a time when the Ducks have all three top CHL defensemen, it could be suggested that Drysdale has fallen off the radar. The 21-year-old suffered a torn labrum in the eighth game of the season and that was it for his year. At that to the fact that he only suited up 24 times in his first year and Drysdale has just 113 total NHL appearances under his belt and the Ducks are working with a small sample size here. Drysdale, a 2020 first-round pick (sixth overall), is still a significant part of Anaheim’s future but with such a limited sample size to work with and coming off a year that was more or less a write-off, a bridge contract is the likely outcome. That could push his price tag closer to the $2MM range on a two-year deal and a bit closer to $2.5MM on a three-year term.
F Max Comtois – Two years ago, it looked like Comtois was coming into his own and was on his way to becoming at least a capable second-line power forward. Players like those have a lot of value but then GM Bob Murray wanted to see if his performance was repeatable first. That proved to be a wise move as Comtois simply hasn’t been able to play at the same level, failing to reach 20 points for the second straight season. He’s owed a $2.445MM qualifying offer this summer which is a bit on the high side for someone struggling to produce. On the other hand, losing him for free would sting with how important of a piece it looked like he was going to be not long ago. Verbeek will need to decide if he’ll give Comtois one more chance under a new head coach or if it’s time to move on.
Other RFAs: D Axel Andersson, D Simon Benoit, G Lukas Dostal, G Olle Eriksson Ek, F Benoit-Olivier Groulx, F Bryce Kindopp, F Josiah Slavin
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
D Kevin Shattenkirk – While the stigma of having his four-year, $26.6MM deal bought out by the Rangers back in 2019 still exists, Shattenkirk has settled in nicely in a lesser role first with Tampa Bay and the last three seasons with Anaheim. The 34-year-old has been a capable secondary producer throughout his career while becoming more of a willing shot-blocker recently. His days of playing on the top pairing are gone but as a fourth defender capable of logging around 20 minutes a night, there should be some interest in Shattenkirk once some of the big names come off the board. He had a $3.9MM AAV on his deal with Anaheim and the veteran should be able to come somewhat close to that on his next contract.
G Anthony Stolarz – This season was one to forget for Stolarz (the same can basically be said for many of Anaheim’s veterans) but prior to that, he has shown some promise in limited duty, including a .917 SV% in 23 starts back in 2021-22. The 29-year-old isn’t going to be near the top of the market for goaltenders but budget-conscious teams looking for a cheap second-stringer with a bit of upside should be looking his way. That mindset will likely describe a few teams which should give Stolarz a decent market and a shot at surpassing the $1MM mark for the first time in his career.
F Derek Grant – It wasn’t a great platform year for the veteran who had multiple stints on injured reserve, limiting him to just 46 games. However, he still managed to pick up 18 points in those contests, a year after collecting 15 goals and 29 points, both career highs. The 33-year-old also won more than 55% of his faceoffs while logging plenty of ice time shorthanded. Now with over 400 games under his belt, Grant is well-known at this point as a defensively capable middleman that can chip in a bit offensively. Those players don’t get big contracts in free agency but he should have several offers that come in around the $1.5MM he has made in each of the last three seasons.
Other UFAs: D Nathan Beaulieu, D Michael Del Zotto, D Scott Harrington, F Justin Kirkland, F Jayson Megna, D John Moore, D Olli Juolevi, D Chase Priskie, F Dylan Sikura, D Andrej Sustr
Projected Cap Space
Cap space won’t be an issue for Anaheim this offseason as they currently have more than $39MM in cap space based on the projected $83.5MM Upper Limit for next season. New deals for Zegras and Terry will take a sizable chunk out of that but the Ducks still project to be well under the cap for 2023-24, one that is expected to be another rebuilding effort. If there is budget room for them to take on a bad contract or two while being compensated for it with prospects and/or draft picks, they could be a team to watch for in the coming weeks.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Offseason Checklist: Nashville Predators
The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Nashville.
The Predators came into the season hoping to continue their streak of eight straight playoff appearances (including the Qualifying Round in the bubble) but changed direction at the deadline, becoming one of the major sellers. However, the unexpected happened and Nashville went on a run down the stretch, nearly pulling off the improbable comeback. While David Poile did some heavy lifting at the deadline to set his successor up, incoming GM Barry Trotz (who officially takes over July 1st) will still have some work to do this summer.
Decide Hynes’ Future
After the season, Trotz indicated that he’d take some time to evaluate John Hynes and then decide on the future of his head coach. That was more than a month ago and there hasn’t been any sort of confirmation one way or the other. Hynes does have one year left on his contract but teams are often hesitant to have their coach behind the bench in a ‘lame duck’ situation. It’s possible that they work out another short-term extension (not unlike the two-year deal he’s currently on) to avoid that situation.
Technically, Trotz can take his time here deciding but the first dominoes are expected to fall soon on the NHL coaching market. If there are candidates out there that he wants, they need to be prepared to strike before that target goes elsewhere.
At this point, the long wait without a decision might actually work in Hynes’ favor but his staying on would be a tepid vote of confidence at best. His name will undoubtedly be on the hot seat if he remains with the team, especially if there’s no extension in place. But for now, simply deciding on if Hynes will be back behind the bench is all the team needs to decide now.
Pick A Direction
The term rebuild doesn’t come up very often when it comes to Nashville as they’ve been one of the models of consistency over the better part of the past decade. But their playoff appearances in recent years yielded quick exits and had they snuck in this season, there’s a good chance that they would have suffered the same fate.
With all due respect to Nashville’s current roster, if they were to try to load back up this summer, they’re probably still in that middle territory and not necessarily a true contender. However, as we’ve seen, some lower seeds have done some damage in the playoffs this season and with Juuse Saros, they have the level of goaltending that can win some games on their own. Accordingly, there’s a case to be made for a quick retool to try to get back into the playoffs in 2024.
On the other hand, there’s also a case to be made that they should be continuing in the direction that Poile took them leading up to the deadline. Move out some more veterans, build up the prospect pool, and try to get into a better position to be more of a real contender in a couple of years. Is that a better approach than hoping to make the playoffs and seeing what happens from there? Trotz will need to decide which is the better way to go and structure his offseason activity based on that choice.
Re-Sign Glass
Cody Glass had a tough first season with Nashville in 2021-22, suiting up in just eight games for the Predators and spending the rest of the year in the minors. Accordingly, the decision for him to take his qualifying offer made sense and the Preds certainly weren’t going to want to work out a long-term deal with someone they weren’t sure would even make their team.
One year later, the narrative is much different. The 24-year-old played the full season in the NHL, picking up 35 points in 72 games along the way. His playing time jumped up to a new career-high while he held his own at the faceoff dot as well, checking in at just under 50%. On the power play, he proved to be quite effective, scoring six times, good for the second-most on the team behind Roman Josi. A year ago, it was hardly a guarantee that Glass was going to be in Nashville much longer. Now, on a team that doesn’t have a lot of younger options down the middle, he looks like a long-term piece of the puzzle.
Glass has three years of club control remaining, all of which will have him arbitration-eligible. Trotz has two ways he can go here, do another short-term ‘prove-it’ type of contract that gives both sides more time to see if his level of production was repeatable, if there’s more in the tank, or if this might have been as good as it gets. Such an approach would certainly be defensible from Nashville’s perspective.
On the other hand, if they believe that Glass is going to become a core player, then perhaps the time is right to try to strike a longer-term agreement. That would push the AAV likely past the $4MM range, a price tag that might be high now but if he pans out, it would become a team-friendly one before too long. From Glass’ perspective, locking in guaranteed long-term money might be desirable a year after being a regular with AHL Milwaukee. There aren’t many key free agent decisions coming for the Preds but this is an intriguing one.
Look Into Barrie Trade
When Nashville traded Mattias Ekholm to Edmonton at the trade deadline, they had to take back Tyson Barrie’s contract as salary ballast as part of the return. Now, the veteran, who turns 32 this summer, will head into the final year of his agreement next season. With a short-term agreement and a right-shot defense market that isn’t all that deep, the Predators are well-positioned to net a quality return should they decide to make him available this summer.
Barrie is the type of player who could be shopped around even if Nashville decides to flip the switch again and try to add. While he’s certainly a capable point producer, he’s not someone that they should be looking to lock up long-term while if they opt to rebuild, he’s a logical piece to shop as a rental.
This isn’t a situation where they have to move him in the coming weeks. As a known commodity, Barrie would have some value closer to the trade deadline where there’s less left on his contract and the Preds might be more willing to retain salary to help facilitate a trade. But once players like Damon Severson and Mathew Dumba come off the board, teams looking for help now on the right side of the back end will have to turn somewhere. Barrie should be a fallback option for those teams, potentially creating a strong enough market to move him sooner than later. Accordingly, expect Trotz to do his homework on that front to be ready to strike if the opportunity presents itself in late June or early July.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins
The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.
2022-23 certainly didn’t go as planned for the Penguins. Even with a veteran-laden roster that was added to at the trade deadline, they ultimately came up short of the postseason for the first time since 2005-06. As a result, some have wondered if the time is right for them to try to rebuild. However, there have been no indications that this is the direction they intend to pursue so accordingly, their checklist will revolve around their expected goal of trying to get back to the postseason.
Round Out Front Office
The Penguins wasted little time shaking up their front office once the regular season came to an end as they dismissed both GM Ron Hextall and President Brian Burke. In the interim, it appears as if managerial decisions for Pittsburgh are being done on a by-committee basis including head coach Mike Sullivan. They can get away with that for now with the heavy lifting of the summer still a few weeks away but that will have to change soon.
Pittsburgh is believed to be well into the process of filling at least one of those vacancies as they’re believed to be into the second round of interviews for the GM role, a process that started with roughly a dozen candidates. It’s unknown if some of those being considered for that position could also be options for the President spot as well or if the Penguins will look towards someone more on the business side. One way or the other, they’ll need to have their new management team in place shortly.
Re-Sign Or Replace Jarry
There aren’t a lot of starting goaltenders that will be hitting the open market this summer but the Penguins have one of them in Tristan Jarry. When he is on his game and healthy, the 28-year-old is a strong number one. However, his on-ice performance has been hit or miss at times the last few seasons while staying in the lineup has proven to be a bit of a challenge as well. Accordingly, his future with the organization appears to be in question.
Jarry is coming off of what has been a team-friendly deal relative to his role with a $3.5MM cap charge. His hope in signing what amounted to a second bridge contract back in 2020 is that by now, he’d be established as a true starter, allowing him to push for close to double that AAV on the open market. It’s fair to say that hasn’t happened but with there being few options in free agency, he’s still likely to add a couple million and a couple more years when he eventually puts pen to paper on a new deal.
Should the Penguins be the team to give him that agreement? Casey DeSmith has one more year left on his contract and showed some good flashes while playing in 38 games, a new benchmark for him. Internally, there isn’t anyone in their prospect pool that’s close to being NHL-ready so if they opt to make a change, they’re going to need to look at external options.
Who would those options be? On the trade market, Anaheim’s John Gibson and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck have been in trade speculation and whoever takes over as GM will likely inquire about those two. Among unrestricted free agents, Semyon Varlamov has been a starter before and could be a short-term stopgap. Joonas Korpisalo had a nice bounce-back year but there would be some risk associated with signing him with a track record that has had its fair share of ups and downs. In terms of free agent netminders, Martin Jones is the only one that played more than Jarry did this season, a sign that there are mostly platoon options available on the open market.
Are any of those options more desirable than sticking with the goalie they know, even with his long history of injuries? With Jarry being eligible to test free agency in six weeks, that’s a question that they’ll need to figure out an answer to fairly quickly.
Create Cap Flexibility
On the surface, the Penguins would appear to have plenty of salary cap room for next season. With roughly $63.3MM on the books for next season per CapFriendly, that leaves them about $20MM to work with. But it’s the spots they have to fill that will ultimately create a cap crunch. As noted earlier, they need a starting goalie. They need to re-sign or replace Jason Zucker, a veteran who had a strong bounce-back year, potting the second-most goals of his career with 27. Brian Dumoulin, who has been a top-four defender for several years, also is set to hit the open market. Filling those three spots will cost the bulk of that cap room, to say nothing of the three bottom-six forwards that will also reach unrestricted free agency as well.
Sure, there’s enough money for them to fill those spots and ice a full-sized roster on opening night. But what does that accomplish? This is a team that wasn’t able to make the playoffs so having a roster that largely mirrors what they had down the stretch shouldn’t be the goal. If they want to make the postseason in 2023-24, they need to find a way to improve their roster. Within their current cap structure, that could be challenging.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see whoever takes over as GM looks to see if he can find a taker for the final two years at $5MM per season on Mikael Granlund’s contract. Alternatively, Bryan Rust, signed at a $5.125MM AAV through 2027-28 could be someone they test the market on. Defensively, Jeff Petry (two years, $6.25MM) and Marcus Pettersson (two years, $4.025MM) could be in that category as well. All of them are certainly still capable NHL players but if they’re going to try to shake up the core and bring some different impact players in, that will have to involve moving some core pieces out as well.
Guentzel Extension Talks
One player that could potentially be added to the list above is Jake Guentzel. He is signed at a team-friendly $6MM AAV through the end of next season which makes him eligible to sign a contract extension on July 1st. Considering that the 28-year-old has averaged better than a point per game over the past five seasons (333 points in 331 games) and surpassed the 35-goal mark in three of those, it’s fair to suggest that their preference this summer will be to try to sign him to a new deal. If those discussions don’t go well, then it’s possible (though not probable) that he could become part of that core shakeup.
What might an extension cost? His camp will likely look to the eight-year, $68MM deal ($8.5MM AAV) that Filip Forsberg signed in Nashville to avoid free agency as the starting point of negotiations. With Forsberg only having one season with more production than Guentzel in recent years, it’s safe to say they’ll be aiming higher; it wouldn’t be surprising to see his camp push for a cap hit starting with a nine on a max-term agreement. Pittsburgh might try to argue that his cap charge shouldn’t surpass Sidney Crosby’s $8.7MM but with the captain being signed only one year longer than Guentzel’s current contract, that argument isn’t likely to hold water.
Guentzel has been a key part of Pittsburgh’s top line for several seasons now but he’s about to get a lot more expensive. If they can get that deal done now, they can avoid any possible trade speculation during the season while also gaining some clarity on what their longer-term cap picture could look like. Accordingly, whoever the next GM will be, Guentzel’s file should be quite high on their to-do list.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Mailbag: Devils, Coyotes, Blue Jackets, Wild, Wright, Robertson, Thunderbirds, Top Pick
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include New Jersey’s goaltending situation, Jason Robertson’s quiet start to the playoffs, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back later on as due to the volume of questions submitted, we’ll be running two more mailbags between now and next weekend.
SpeakOfTheDevils: What do the Devils do at the goalie position this summer? Obviously, Bernier retires, Blackwood isn’t qualified, do we run a Vanecek/Schmid platoon or trade Vanecek for someone like Saros or Hellebuyck?
First, I’ll agree with you on the first two. Jonathan Bernier has been out for over a year and a half so he clearly isn’t returning. I still think Mackenzie Blackwood can be a good NHL goalie but after being relegated to third-string status for the playoffs plus his $3.36MM qualifying offer, he’s not coming back either.
I’ll start my answer to your question with another question. Do the Devils think they can re-sign both Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier? Neither are goaltenders obviously but they’re going to have an impact on what does – or doesn’t – happen between the pipes.
There’s only so much cap space to go around and a lot of what they have is going to have to go to those two, probably somewhere around $18MM, give or take. If those two sign and they have big contracts on the books already in Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, and Dougie Hamilton, can they afford another big one? Juuse Saros and Connor Hellebuyck aren’t on contracts at that level yet but will be soon enough and I’m not sure it’s justifiable to make a move for one of them without being prepared to pay up for their next, much more expensive, deal.
Right now, I think New Jersey’s intention is to re-sign both wingers and that will more or less force their hand into going cheap between the pipes with Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid so that’s what I’ll go with as an answer. But if talks with one of them fall through and they wind up getting moved, it wouldn’t surprise me if they were to take a run at a goaltending upgrade.
PyramidHeadcrab: What’s the long-term plan for the Arizona Coyotes and Columbus Blue Jackets?
Arizona has become a dumping ground for bad contracts, and they trade away every quality asset they develop. They’re playing in an OHL-sized arena and icing a team that has no chance of competing. Are they built to serve other teams? I don’t see the goal here.
Columbus has flirted with the playoffs and hosted some genuine star talent at points, but they seem to be cursed with injuries and mediocre depth/prospects. Does Columbus ever pull it all together and reliably compete, or do they simply continue to exist in perpetual suffering?
This is certainly a topical question with the arena proposal for the Coyotes getting voted down earlier this week (and it was particularly timely as it came before the news broke). Franchise-wise, I do think the team is going to take a serious look at trying to find a Plan B that works in the desert over the next eight-to-ten months. If nothing presents itself, then relocation could very well be on the table with a new owner in place.
But as you noted in your follow-up comment, you were looking at more of the on-ice element for both teams. For Arizona, they’ve made it clear that they haven’t had much desire to win for the last several years and based on GM Bill Armstrong’s comments earlier about where they are in that process, probably a few more. I don’t think they’re concerned about not having an overly competitive team; their goal is competing a few years from now with a bunch of promising prospects growing together into a sustainable contender. Taking on injured players allows them to keep net payroll costs down (they’re paying considerably less than the AAV after insurance) which is particularly important playing in the arena they’re currently in. There’s an end game for this, it just won’t be seen for a little while longer.
As for Columbus, I’m not particularly bullish on their future. I get that landing Johnny Gaudreau resulted in them trying to expedite things but clearly, it didn’t work. They’re going to get a high-end talent with the third pick next month at least and they have some quality youngsters headlined by David Jiricek and Kent Johnson. With them, Gaudreau, and Patrik Laine, there’s a good foundation. But unless their new head coach can elevate their play to another level, this feels like a franchise whose peak might be a second-round exit or two. That’s not terrible but while I wouldn’t necessarily say they’ll be perpetually suffering, I don’t see them getting over the proverbial hump anytime soon.
Zakis: What youngsters make the Wild opening day roster next year and what kind of impact do you think they can make? To piggyback on a comment, what is the role of a POHO? More focused on the on-ice product or business side? Thanks as always.
Let’s start with Brock Faber. He didn’t look out of place in the playoffs and with Mathew Dumba and John Klingberg heading for unrestricted free agency in July, there should be a spot in the lineup for him. Next season, I don’t think he’s going to make a huge impact right away but I could see his ATOI getting into the 16-18-minute range which would be a solid rookie year.
Up front, I think Marco Rossi breaks camp at least with Minnesota. Now with basically two full AHL seasons under his belt, they need to get a feel for where he is development-wise. If he winds up back on the fourth line eventually, then they can send him back down but I suspect he’ll get a look. His impact might wind up being negligible, however.
I see the Wild being a team that could be active in free agency in September. There are always free agent bargains to be had at that point and they might bring in a veteran or two that could push someone like Samuel Walker or Adam Beckman back to Iowa to start. If you want a dark horse forward to break camp, I’ll throw out Caedan Bankier. If they go young on the fourth line, his defensive game is good enough to stick while providing some offensive upside. A good camp could have him in the mix.
As for the role of a President of Hockey Operations (or POHO), it varies from team to team. Some are really involved in the day-to-day operations to the point where they could have the final say on strategy and personnel moves with the GM then going out and executing them. Some teams don’t have a President of Hockey Operations, they just have a President (Minnesota is one of those with Matt Majka). Some have a POHO on paper but in reality, they’re not overly involved with on-ice elements. In those instances, they’re heavily involved in business strategy, marketing, and revenue growth.
aka.nda: Been wondering about Shane Wright’s next few seasons. Would a trade scenario be unconscionable? If not, what is his value like? Who would be a good fit and why?
It would be a bit of a shock to see a fourth-overall pick traded one year later but I suppose it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility. For it to happen, Seattle would need to be convinced that he’s not going to pan out as they hoped a year ago which frankly, would be a particularly aggressive conclusion to draw for someone who has less than 30 games of professional experience under his belt. GM Ron Francis is patient and this would be the opposite of that. The other element required here would be another team would need to feel the other way, that he is still a high-quality center prospect. That one is easier to see happening as I’m sure plenty of teams would want to get their hands on him.
From a trade value perspective, I’d peg it somewhere around what the tenth pick would fetch in a trade. Last year wasn’t the deepest of drafts and his post-draft year wasn’t great (though it wasn’t bad either, by any stretch) so I think his value would be down slightly relative to a year ago. From the fit side of things, anyone who needs a young center would be a fit on paper. That’s a lot of teams.
I’m trying to think of a scenario that could make Francis pull the trigger and this is the best I could come up with. A team makes a promising young center that’s 21 or 22 and either already in the NHL (or should be next season) available. That player doesn’t fit the trading team’s timeline as they’re in a rebuild but Wright does. I’m not sure there’s a team in a rebuild right now with someone that age with that much control and upside that could be made available in this scenario. But that’s my guess on what it would take for them to move Wright that quickly.
jacl: What the hell is going on with Jason Robertson? This is two years in a row he has disappeared in the playoffs.
As much as Robertson has struggled to score, he still sat second on the Stars in points heading into the start of their series against Vegas at just under a point per game. That’s not terrible. I’d suggest that he has been better this year than 2022, his first taste of postseason action so that’s a step in the right direction, if nothing else.
It’s a simple answer but sometimes, it takes players a while to adapt to the different way that playoff hockey is played. In particular, smaller offensive players can deal with some challenges with the tighter checking and greater physicality; look no further than Dallas’ first-round opponent in Minnesota who didn’t get a lot from Kirill Kaprizov that series. Robertson enters this series with 19 playoff games under his belt which isn’t a whole lot. There’s still a lot of time for him to figure out the nuances of playoff hockey, not just this year but beyond. But it looks like it’s going to take him a bit longer to play at his regular season level in the postseason.
Offseason Checklist: Buffalo Sabres
The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Buffalo.
It has been quite a while since the Sabres made it to the playoffs (the last time they did was in 2011) but optimism is justifiably on the increase in Buffalo. Several youngsters are starting to grab hold of key spots in the lineup which sparked an impressive second-half run that kept them close to the postseason until the very end. Accordingly, a lot of their to-do list this offseason revolves around adding to and extending their core, not flipping players for prospects and draft picks. The time for rebuilding is pretty much over.
Look At Adding A Veteran Starter
Between Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, the Sabres have a pair of young promising prospects who could form a quality tandem before too long. While it’s quite possible that those two could be the duo next season, that would carry some risk as the pair have 52 career NHL starts combined. If this was another rebuilding year, perhaps playing both of them would carry some merit but it’s fair to suggest that there will be an expectation of them playing past the 82-game mark next season.
Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see GM Kevyn Adams look at what’s out there in terms of trade or free agent options. Anaheim’s John Gibson has been in trade speculation for a while and although Buffalo might not like the four years remaining on his contract, a change of scenery could get him back to being an above-average goaltender. That would certainly give them a boost in the short term although it’d create a scenario where one of Luukkonen or Levi would likely need to be moved at some point if not as a part of that swap.
If Winnipeg winds up starting a rebuild and moving Connor Hellebuyck, he’d be particularly intriguing, even as a one-year rental. He’d give the Sabres a significant boost and if the two youngsters weren’t in the swap, they could still try them as a cost-controllable tandem as soon as 2024-25.
In free agency, it’d be surprising to see them take a run at someone like Tristan Jarry. However, veteran Semyon Varlamov would be a short-term upgrade, allowing Levi to spend some time with AHL Rochester while giving them an upgrade on what they got from veterans Craig Anderson (now retired) and Eric Comrie (still signed for one more year).
Buffalo is in decent shape here in the sense that they don’t necessarily have to make a move. If they think Levi is ready to be a full-time NHL regular, there could be some upside to going with their top prospects although the risk is certainly higher as well. But if they can bring in an upgrade, even if it’s just another shorter-term stopgap, it could certainly give them a lift for next season.
Extension Talks
The Sabres will have two prominent defensemen entering the final year of their respective deals and will thus be eligible for contract extensions as soon as July 1st. Both players are in vastly different situations.
Rasmus Dahlin didn’t quite live up to the hype of being a franchise defenseman over his first three seasons. There were flashes of dominance but he certainly had more than his fair share of struggles as well. However, he showed some improvement once Don Granato took over down the stretch in 2020-21, doing well enough for the two sides to agree on a three-year bridge deal that summer.
Since then, Dahlin has certainly become Buffalo’s franchise blueliner. He has been one of the top two-way rearguards in the league over the last couple of seasons and at 23, it’s fair to say that there is still room for improvement. His qualifying offer next summer is $7.2MM but that’s not really relevant as there’s a very good chance that Dahlin will become the next NHL blueliner making $10MM or more on a long-term deal.
Then there’s Owen Power. Like Dahlin, he was a first-overall selection but he’s still at just the beginning of his career having played his first full NHL campaign just this season. However, by burning the first year with an eight-game appearance in 2021-22, he’s not far away from a new deal. Have the Sabres seen enough to do a long-term contract now? That’s far from a guarantee, nor is it that his camp would be willing to sign a long-term deal just 87 games into his NHL career. Accordingly, while Adams will likely at least explore what the framework of an agreement might look like, this one might not get done this summer.
Determine Olofsson’s Future
Victor Olofsson has been a productive winger for Buffalo, notching at least 20 goals in three of the last four seasons. However, for the bulk of those four campaigns, it would be fair to say that he has seemingly been on thin ice with the team. He only received a bridge deal after his entry-level contract and then last year, basically signed a second one, one that gave him a nice raise to $4.75MM but only locked him up for one extra year of team control, 2023-24.
Even with setting a new benchmark for goals this season with 28, Olofsson found himself a healthy scratch at times while being on the fourth line at others, hardly the ideal spot for a player like him.
With back-to-back short-term contracts, the team has punted making a decision on Olofsson’s long-term future in Buffalo but it’s getting to be time to make that decision. It’s not that they can’t go into next season with him in his walk year but more that they shouldn’t. With more than 260 career games under his belt, the Sabres know what he can and can’t bring to the table.
Is what he can do worth keeping around? If so, then they can start to work on an extension. If not, the time might be right to try to move him before free agency before teams set their opening rosters. With his cap hit, it would be a swap of players needing a change of scenery, perhaps the newcomer might be a better fit for the roster if they decide to move on from Olofsson.
Add An Impact Defenseman
Even with Dahlin and Power on the roster plus Mattias Samuelsson whose seven-year deal kicks in next season, there’s a definite need to upgrade the back end. In particular, the right side of the blueline as those three are all left-shot blueliners, leaving Henri Jokiharju as the top option among right-shot rearguards.
Adding one more capable right-shot defender to the mix would nicely round out a back end that still has room for internal improvement as well. Those players aren’t the easiest to trade for but with the Sabres having ample cap room in a summer when few teams can say that, that will give them an option to try to take advantage of another team’s cap challenges to try to fill that spot.
Alternatively, there are a couple of free agent options that would fit the bill as well in Damon Severson and Mathew Dumba. Both players are capable of logging 20 or more minutes a night and have shown an ability to produce offensively in the past though both are coming off quieter-than-expected years. Both are 28 so they will likely command a long-term deal but at the moment, Samuelsson is Buffalo’s only defenseman signed beyond 2023-24; some stability at that position probably wouldn’t hurt.
There was a significant gap between the defenseman that was fourth in ATOI this season (Jokiharju, 21:01) and fifth (Kale Clague, 15:06). Balancing things out, especially with Samuelsson and Jokiharju having a recent history of injuries, should be high on the priority list, especially with no one else in their system that’s ready to make the jump and play a key role on an NHL roster in the near future.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.