PHR Mailbag

The Stanley Cup Final is starting and the St. Louis Blues are still alive. The organization that has never won a Cup in their history will get a chance to raise hockey’s legendary chalice, but have to go through the team that beat them the last time they had this opportunity. The Boston Bruins put St. Louis out in 1970, starting a 49-year streak of failure to reach the final round.

Even as hockey fans focus on the final few games of the season, work is being done in front offices across the league to prepare for the upcoming entry draft. Prospects are gathering this week in Buffalo for the draft combine, while management is prepping on all the free agents that will be available this summer. The interview period begins in just a few weeks, and top names like Erik Karlsson, Artemi Panarin and Matt Duchene remain unsigned.

With that in mind it’s time to run another edition of our mailbag. You can submit your query by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure to get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through them all when the mailbag runs this weekend.

If you missed out on the last mailbag, it was split into two parts that you can read here and here. The first tackled topics like Karlsson’s pending free agency, playoff formats and the Nashville Predators, while the second looked at the future for the New York Rangers, the goaltending market, and the top defensive prospects in the game.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the offseason for the Rangers, the upcoming UFA market, Minnesota’s big contracts, Toronto’s defense corps, Detroit’s contract situation, young blueliners that could be primed to make an NHL impact, and the upcoming draft class.

This is the second half of the mailbag from questions submitted earlier this month.  The first half of the mailbag can be found here.

met man: How active do you think the Rangers will be in free agency? Will they buy out any contracts?

pitmanrich: How do you see the Rangers defense pairings next season; they carried eight this year but with the additions of Fox and Hajek and possibly Lindgren ready to suit up some will have to go. All the other teams will know this and it will weaken any trade attempts.

acarneglia: Will Lundqvist waive his NTC? If so where’s a likely destination? Florida? Edmonton? Carolina?

There were several New York questions in our most recent call for questions so let’s tackle them together.

I expect the Rangers will be active on the open market but not just in terms of top players like defenseman Erik Karlsson who they’ve already been linked to.  Yes, they have the cap room to make some big moves but I think they’ll also be going after players that I like to call buffer guys.  These are players that will take a short-term contract and basically hold down a spot until a younger player is ready to come up on a full-time basis.  At that time, the veteran gets traded.  If they sign a couple of those players, they’ll allow some of their prospects to develop in the minors some more and give themselves some trade chips at the same time.

On the buyout front, there are players that are candidates (Brendan Smith comes to mind) but it’s not like they’re hurting for cap room.  Unless they have several big signings planned, they’d be better off riding out the bad contracts they have instead of taking some short-term savings knowing that they’ll be adding to their costs down the road when they’re coming out of the rebuild and some of their younger players will need new deals.

Looking at their current back end, I think Brady Skjei and Kevin Shattenkirk reprise their pairing from the end of the season (unless Shattenkirk is traded).  Marc Staal is still probably going to be in a top-four role and I think Neal Pionk will slot in alongside him.  Then it gets interesting.  Adam Fox is probably going to be on the roster as is Anthony DeAngelo.  Both are right-shot players so they probably won’t make up a pairing; instead, one will serve as the seventh defender.  I’m not sure Yegor Rykov is ready for that role just yet and I think Ryan Lindgren and Libor Hajek need more development time as well.  I think that third pairing left spot will be filled in free agency by one of those buffer players.

As for Lundqvist, I know his comments earlier in the summer about not necessarily finishing up in New York are out there but he has kiboshed a trade already.  Knowing that they’re closer to getting back into contention in the next couple of years, I don’t think he has the desire to change his stance on that.

pawtucket: There are a lot of good FA goalies (Varlamov, Bobrovsky, Lehner, Mrazek, Talbot). Where do they all end up?

I don’t think we’re going to see the musical chairs for goalies that we’ve seen in recent years.  In particular, I think Robin Lehner will be inclined to stay with the Islanders and Petr Mrazek should get a new deal from the Hurricanes.

Sergei Bobrovsky is by far the best goalie available but there aren’t a ton of teams looking for a number one, especially at the price point he’ll be seeking.  Florida has been a speculative suitor for a while now and they’re probably the best fit for him so let’s put him there.  I know Columbus is open to going with an unproven duo between the pipes for next season but someone like Semyon Varlamov on a short-term deal makes a lot of sense for them.  They get some short-term security, he gets a chance to prove that he can still be a starter.

I really liked the Cam Talbot acquisition for the Flyers and figured he’d be a great fit with Carter Hart.  Then he barely played down the stretch which makes me question how much he’ll want to stay there.  Assuming Mike Smith doesn’t re-sign in Calgary, I could see the Flames looking for someone that can play more than typical backup minutes and Talbot would fit that bill.  Lots will change in the next month but those would be my current predictions.

sovietcanuckistanian: What/whom do you think will be the biggest overpay in terms of AAV/length of free agent contract and where might they be going?

My money is on Duchene. While not a terrible player he is not anyone’s idea of a team’s alpha dog, but might actually get paid like one.

Matt Duchene will certainly be a candidate in terms of AAV, at the very least.  He’s not a true franchise forward but he’s coming off of a strong postseason and plays a premium position.  He’s going to get a pricey contract but he’ll be capped at a seven-year term unless he re-signs in Columbus before July 1st.  He’s only 28 so that term shouldn’t be crippling.

My choice is Winnipeg defenseman Tyler Myers.  The market for right-shot defensemen is basically Karlsson and then him.  Anyone who strikes out on Karlsson will probably be looking at Myers, who has played big minutes in the past.  However, his effectiveness has waned in recent years and he’s someone that probably ideally slots in as a fourth or fifth defender.  He’s going to get a lot more money than someone in that role should get.  I could see the Flyers and Devils as landing spots – they have the cap space to pay up and fairly thin depth on the right side.

Bdd1967: How hard would it be salary cap wise for Minnesota to dump Parise and Suter or work out deals to get them off the roster? Those two suck up so much cash it makes it impossible to surround them with enough talent to win. It’s getting really, really old…mediocrity is the standard with this club.

There’s a significant difference in market value between the two.  If GM Paul Fenton was to say that Ryan Suter is available, he’d have five phone calls before he has time to get a coffee.  Suter’s deal is expensive for sure but he’s still a legitimate top pairing defender.  Very few of those are typically available in any offseason and those that are will get long-term deals at a higher price tag than Suter.  He’s also quite durable having only missed nine regular season games over seven years with the franchise.  Yes, the fact that he’s 34 and has six years left is concerning but he still has several above average years left in him which would be enough to make teams pay a significant price to get him.

The same case probably can’t be made for Zach Parise.  His injury history is a concern and even though he had a nice bounce-back season in 2018-19, there are going to be questions about his potential level of productivity moving forward.  He produced like a top liner this season but before that, he was more of a second-liner.  A $7.5MM price tag for one of those (for six years) doesn’t have a ton of value.  Still, I think Fenton could get out of the deal without needing much of a sweetener – he’d just have to take a big (but shorter-term) contract in return.  If they have eyes on trying to get back to the postseason next year though, a move like that wouldn’t help.

ThePriceWasRight: With another failed playoff, do you see the Leafs finally sacrificing some of their young forwards for defensive depth? Everyone loves the kids coming up but no way they are comfortable come playoff time with two, maybe three rookies on that back end.

If there was ever a time to do that, this would be it.  It’s unlikely Jake Gardiner and Ron Hainsey will be back while Travis Dermott won’t be ready to start the season.  As a result, they’ll be starting the season with Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, Nikita Zaitsev, and three mediocre and/or unproven options.  There are some prospects on the horizon but a buffer player or two would help.

Toronto has several prospect forwards that they could deal from but I could see them moving one of Kasperi Kapanen or Andreas Johnsson to fill that void rather than a prospect who would likely only yield a prospect in return.  Given their cap situation, it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to retain both wingers and with the way both performed, they could fetch a pretty good young (cost-effective) defender.  With some of the youngsters on the horizon (adding a seemingly NHL-ready Ilya Mikheyev certainly helps), they can promote from within to fill the gap.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Maple Leafs look for a veteran free agent in the $1MM range.  While they wouldn’t land a top-four player for that price, there are usually some reasonable third pairing players that will slip through the cracks and take a bargain deal.  If they can do that and flip Kapanen or Johnsson for another rearguard, they’ll be in reasonable shape in terms of depth to start the season.  Give their youngsters like Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren a bit more development time in the minors and their depth for next postseason should be pretty good as well.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Erik Karlsson and the Sharks, the postseason format, P.K. Subban’s future in Nashville, Houston’s chances of landing an NHL team, Washington’s free agents, and Micheal Ferland’s future in Carolina.  If your question wasn’t answered here, it will be covered next weekend.

JDGoat: What’s the likelihood of Karlsson re-signing in SJ?

SFGiantsFan28: Is there a way that the Sharks can re-sign Karlsson, Pavelski and Thornton considering their limited cap space? What will that mean for RFAs Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc? Does Nyquist even get an offer from SJ?

pitmanrich: Sharks vs Bruins final Game 7 overtime,  Jumbo Joe Thornton scores the winner against the team that drafted him with his last touch before retirement. Written in the stars???

Lots of San Jose questions here so let’s tackle them together to kick things off.

With regards to Karlsson, I thought the likelihood of him signing an extension after the trade deadline was pretty high but clearly, that hasn’t happened.  His injury issues raise a bit of a red flag as well but not to the extent where they’re going to be scared off.  I’d still peg it as much more likely than not that they’ll re-sign him.  GM Doug Wilson made the trade with the belief that they could make the money work while creating a dynamic back end.  Karlsson’s injuries don’t really change either of those factors.

On top of that, I think they can re-sign him and Joe Pavelski without too much issue despite the limited cap room.  Joe Thornton can sign a bonus-laden deal with a low base salary and while many players wouldn’t do that, his offer to take less money when they were trying to keep Patrick Marleau tells me he may be willing to consider a high-bonus contract which would allow San Jose to potentially defer those costs to 2020-21 when the cap should go up a bit again.

To do that, they will probably need to trim from their back end.  Brenden Dillon ($3.27MM) and Justin Braun ($3.85MM) will be on expiring contracts and they could safely move one of them out to free up a bit of money.  Swapping Aaron Dell ($1.9MM) for a cheaper backup is also something I could see them doing.

When it comes to the restricted free agents, I suspect Labanc will wind up on a bridge contract which will also save a bit of money in the short-term relative to what a long-term pact would cost.  I think they’ll try to go long-term with Meier but if Thornton sticks around, they may have to go with a bridge deal there as well.  If so, a one-year contract may be the best way to go.  It’s hard to envision Gustav Nyquist sticking around – I’m sure they’d love to keep him but he’s well below Karlsson and Pavelski on the list of priorities.  One of them would need to go elsewhere to really free up a spot for Nyquist.

As for the Thornton game-winner scenario, that’d be one way for him to ride off into the sunset.  He’d probably call it a career if that was to happen which is the only prediction I’m making with that one.

PQW: Is there any talk, anywhere about changing the playoff format somehow to allow an extra team or two into the playoffs? With Vegas and now Seattle joining, it’s a shame that a team like the Habs (not a fan) at what, 14 games over .500 didn’t make the show.

There is certainly an appetite from a few owners to expand the playoffs.  The addition of Seattle to bring the alignment back to even (eight teams in each division) would seem like a good time to make changes and a mini Wild Card play-in series (or single game) would be an option.

However, the nays outweigh the yeas when it comes to the Board of Governors.  Gary Bettman is also against the idea of postseason expansion.  Considering a two-thirds majority would be needed to make that change, I wouldn’t count on it happening anytime soon.

That said, I could see a change to the format happening down the road.  There is some interest from owners in going back to the old format of 1-8, 2-7, etc. and the one-year extension to the current format means that change could happen sooner than later.  Alternatively, they could scrap the Wild Card altogether once Seattle makes it and make it just the top four teams from each division.  There could be changes coming sooner than later but it probably won’t be expanding the postseason field.

ThePriceWasRight: What happens in Nashville? Sounds like Subban is on the table as a trade candidate and am wondering what team you see as a fit and what a trade could look like.

I think P.K. Subban’s time in Nashville is probably over.  This is a team that needs to reallocate some of their cap spending up front and at a $9MM AAV, Subban’s deal is on the expensive side.  They also know that Roman Josi will soon be up for a raise and it’s unlikely that he or Ryan Ellis will move and Mattias Ekholm is on a team-friendly pact.

There are lots of potential fits but it depends on what GM David Poile is looking to accomplish.  Is he looking for a top-end forward in return?  Or is he okay with taking a futures-based package with an eye on turning around and spending that money on the UFA market?  If it’s the latter, that’s going to limit the options to teams with a lot of salary cap space.  I’m inclined to think that they’ll look for something in between – there will be an NHL piece coming back that makes a few million but the impetus of a trade will be to open up cap flexibility (and more playing time for Dante Fabbro).

In terms of teams that could be a fit, I wonder about Vancouver.  Yes, Jim Benning recently cautioned about spending big this summer but a top pairing defender is something they’ve been coveting for a while.  We also know he had interest in Subban in the past as he was fined for tampering for comments he made about Subban’s availability in 2016.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see New Jersey make a pitch – defense has been a big need for a while and they’ve had trouble attracting prominent players in free agency.  If Buffalo winds up moving Rasmus Ristolainen which has been speculated going back to the trade deadline, I could see them being involved here as well.

@RWMichaels92779: What’s the reality of having a team in Houston?

Tilman Fertitta is the owner of the NBA’s Houston Rockets and there are varying reports when it comes to his willingness to be involved with an NHL team which would share the Toyota Center as a tenant.  If he’s not interested in having an NHL squad as a tenant (regardless of his ownership stake in the team), it won’t happen as building a new facility for a potential Houston hockey team doesn’t make any sense.

I also don’t see expansion happening anytime soon.  That means that their only chance is relocation.  If they can share the arena with the Rockets, this would be one of the better options to move a team to as they’d have a place to play and are in a good TV market.

Having said that, I don’t think relocation is on the agenda anytime soon.  While the Coyotes’ arena situation still doesn’t appear to be close to a resolution, they’ve held on this far and Bettman has stated numerous times in the past that the priority is keeping them in Arizona.  He also recently stated that relocation isn’t an option for Ottawa.  There aren’t really other teams that have been speculated to be candidates to move.

I think that there will be a team in Houston one day.  But it may take many, many years for that day to arrive.

2012orioles: Which of the Capitals free agents are most likely to be re-signed?

Andre Burakovsky is still an intriguing case.  He’s a capable player but a $3.25MM qualifying offer (and arbitration eligibility) makes it a tougher call.  If nothing’s done by the end of the draft, I think they’ll non-tender him and then try to bring him back at a lesser rate but as a 24-year-old with some success under his belt, he’d have plenty of interest.  Dmitrij Jaskin ($1.1MM) is also a non-tender candidate as they could bring in someone at the league minimum and save a few bucks there.

Jakub Vrana, another RFA, will be their top priority and the type of contract he signs could dictate what they do with their UFAs.  If it’s a long-term (more expensive contract), they may not be able to afford to bring any of their notable free agents back but if it’s a bridge deal, they may be able to keep one.

Brett Connolly seems to be the popular choice as to who may stay but I could see him looking for a larger role elsewhere after a career season.  So if any of their UFAs stick around, I think it’s Carl Hagelin.  Yes, he’ll need to take a big pay cut but he’s going to have to do that no matter where he goes.  He fit in well with the team after being acquired and was a big help on their penalty kill.  I know that scoring depth in the bottom six is needed but I think they’ll target some minor league scorers on cheap deals with the hopes that one will produce.  I doubt Devante Smith-Pelly is offered a new deal and they’ll probably move on from Brooks Orpik as well.

mikedickinson: Ferland was set up for a nice payday, but he’s so darn injury prone. Think he comes back to the Canes on a good deal now or will someone still overpay?

I’m not sure his market has been negatively affected all that much.  He usually misses time to injury each year so getting hurt in the postseason is basically par for the course at this point.  There aren’t many power forwards with a bit of an offensive touch out there in free agency and of the ones that are, he’s the youngest with the most upside.  That means someone’s still going to overpay.

With that said, I think the odds of him staying are increasing.  The better the Hurricanes do in the playoffs, the better case they can make that they’re a team on the rise.  He could stay there and have a top-six role for a while and it’s generally tougher to leave a winning environment than a losing one.  It also should make a compelling case to owner Tom Dundon to spend more to keep this group together.  I wouldn’t call him staying a sure-fire outcome at this point but I’d have the odds of it happening a lot higher now than I would have after the trade deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

We’re almost two rounds deep in the NHL playoffs and most of the league is now focused on the 2019 offseason. Already we’ve had some long tenured executives and coaches change teams and are sure to see top players follow them as soon as trading season really kicks off. The draft next month is sure to bring about plenty of fireworks given the overhaul expected in several markets, and July 1st still has plenty of talent scheduled for unrestricted free agency.

Will Erik Karlsson re-sign in San Jose? What about the trio of forwards in New York? Can the Oilers crawl back into the playoffs? There should be countless questions on the minds of hockey fans everywhere, and with that in mind we’ll be running another edition of the mailbag this weekend. You can submit your query by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.

If you miss the last mailbag it was split into two parts because of the volume of questions. First, our Brian La Rose tackled questions like Nazem Kadri’s future in Toronto and the Philadelphia offseason, and then took a look at some of the league’s worst contracts and the future for Petr Mrazek. Make sure to submit a question early so we can include it in this edition.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Adam Fox’s future, bad contracts that could be on the move, how much Petr Mrazek’s next contract should cost, what Chicago could do with the number three pick, and what’s in store for the Rangers this offseason.

met man: What do you think happens to Adam Fox?  Will Carolina trade his rights at the upcoming draft?

From Carolina’s standpoint, I don’t see the need to drag this out.  If the defenseman plays out his final college year, the Hurricanes pretty much lose all of their leverage so why take it to 2020?  They would be wise to take the best deal they can get over the next few months as I don’t see Fox having a change of heart about joining the Hurricanes.  With the defensive depth they have, there’s no immediate path to the NHL for him.

That said, it all comes down to Fox’s willingness to sign.  Any team wanting to trade for his rights is going to want some kind of assurance that he’ll put pen to paper on a contract and failing that, they’ll want to put some conditions in the trade to protect themselves.  For example, a conditional seventh-rounder in 2020 that upgrades to let’s say a second-round pick in 2020 if he signs.  Since he has the extra year of college eligibility, any conditions would have to be in that 2020 draft so the upcoming draft in June doesn’t have to serve as a soft deadline.  I suspect Carolina’s preference would be to move him by then but I wouldn’t be shocked if it drags out into free agency where teams have a better idea of what their roster looks like before committing to a trade.  He should on the move this summer though.

@RunnerSaltShack: What’s it going to take to move bad contracts? Lucic?  Callahan?  Abdelkader? Which bad contract is likely to move this year?

I’ll answer the second part first and say of those three, Callahan is the likeliest to be dealt.  The shorter the remaining term on the deal, the easier it is to move a player and with one year left, Callahan immediately jumps to the top of the list.

As for what a cost may be, let’s note what Winnipeg gave up to offload Steve Mason’s $4MM deal on Montreal.  They gave up a young roster forward in Joel Armia plus a fourth rounder and a seventh rounder.  Callahan has a higher cap hit at $5.8MM but it’s also plausible that an acquiring team could actually keep him instead of buying him out as the Canadiens did with Mason.  Accordingly, I’d set the price at somewhere around there, assuming Callahan is willing to play ball and waive his trade protection.

As for Milan Lucic, with four years at $6MM remaining, the cost in terms of young assets to offload the deal would be huge.  We don’t know who Edmonton’s GM will be for next season but whoever it is, it’s a cost that they wouldn’t want to pay.  As a result, I think the only way he moves if it’s a swap of long-term bad contracts but even at that, I think there’s too much term remaining on the deal for that to even be a semi-realistic possibility.  There may come a time where that deal is movable but we’re a couple of years from that point.

I’m not sure Detroit would be all that interested in moving Justin Abdelkader.  While he had a tough year this season, he’s only a year removed from a 35-point campaign which isn’t a terrible return on a $4.25MM AAV.  Four more years isn’t ideal but given his stature on the team, I can’t see new GM Steve Yzerman being all that interested in attaching assets to move the deal out when they’re still in a rebuilding stage though they need to free up some cap space at some point in the near future.  I just think they’ll look to move someone else out first.

In terms of other bad contracts that could be on the move this summer, Vancouver winger Loui Eriksson (three years, $6MM) could be an option as his salary starts to dip.  Teams with limited budgets may be inclined to take a player like that on without requiring a massive incentive to do so given the actual cost savings they’d realize over signing someone who isn’t on a front-loaded deal.

mikedickinson: What kind of deal will it take for the Hurricanes to lock up Mrazek? The guy has been very good this year, and a missing piece.

What a nice comeback year he’s had.  This was looking like a potential last chance situation if Mrazek struggled like he did last season but instead, he did well splitting the starts with Curtis McElhinney and has played well in the playoffs.

The fact that he only played a half season should work in Carolina’s favor.  Most of the teams that will be looking for help on the free agent market are going to be looking for a full-fledged starter or someone that is willing to sign cheap enough as a guaranteed backup.  There shouldn’t be a sizable market for the platoon/1A-1B guys like Mrazek is.

In terms of comparables, a couple of players come to mind.  Coyotes goalie Antti Raanta, whose career high in games played came last season with 47, signed a three-year, $12.75MM deal.  His numbers were a little better than Mrazek’s but he also has a bit of risk given his injury issues over the years, something that certainly came into play in 2018-19.

The other is someone you’re surely familiar with in Hurricanes goalie Scott Darling.  He played a little less in his final year in Chicago than Mrazek did this season but he was still able to land a four-year, $16.6MM deal.  Of course, that hasn’t worked out well at all for Carolina which is why Mrazek’s in a situation to potentially cash in here.

I think those two players represent the high end of Mrazek’s earning potential.  Carolina will be cautious given what happened with Darling and Mrazek isn’t going to want to sign an overly long contract at what could be a below-market rate if his strong play continues.  As a result, I’d peg him for a three-year deal with an AAV between $3.5MM and $4MM.  It’s a deal that gives Mrazek some stability but doesn’t break the bank at the same time and allows Carolina to employ a platoon between the pipes over the next few years as well.

random comment guy: What are the Hawks gonna do at #3? Seems to be a crap shoot after Hughes and Kakko (assuming he goes second). Do you think they will stand pat or trade (possibly with a contract to open up cap relief)?

I have a hard time thinking GM Stan Bowman would want to part with that particular pick to offload a bad contract, especially since they actually have a bit of salary cap flexibility this summer for the first time in a long time.  I also don’t foresee there being much of an appetite to trade the pick for an established player so I think they stand pat.

The interesting call will be who to take.  Russian winger Vasili Podkolzin is a popular choice to go third but he has two years left on his deal in the KHL and as we’ve seen in recent weeks, some Russian teams are dead set against the idea of letting players out even a couple of weeks early let alone a couple of years.  There’s no player transfer agreement in place between the two leagues either.  The Blackhawks are still in the mindset of trying to win right now so it’s plausible that having to wait could act as a deterrent.  Given their recent spree of drafting defensemen, Bowen Byram may be off the table so perhaps that would make them give some strong consideration to someone like center Alex Turcotte.  With some draft-eligible prospects still playing (Cole Caufield had quite the showing at the Under-18’s), it’s hard to make any specific predictions on who they’d take this early but I expect they’ll be making that selection two months from now.

acarneglia: Outside of presumably drafting Kakko with the 2nd overall pick, what does the rest of the Rangers offseason look like?

First off, they’ll have to hire a replacement for Glen Sather as team president.  That’s probably going to be John Davidson (or at least that’s the overwhelming expectation).

I expect them to be active in free agency but not necessarily just looking to land simply top-end players.  Part of them taking a big step forward will be continuing to give their youngsters a chance to play themselves into the top roles that they’re expected to fill.  That will take some time so GM Jeff Gorton’s free agent targets will factor that in mind.  Some complementary players on short-term deals would make a lot of sense for them, both up front and on the back end.  I could see them landing one impact player though as they will have some money to spend.

Chris Kreider’s case is going to be an interesting one.  He’s eligible for an extension on July 1st and Gorton will want to have a sense sooner than later as to what one will cost to allow him to decide whether or not to keep him or trade him.  He can make a big impact but there are a lot of nights where he’s quiet so if I had to guess right now, I don’t see the team signing him right away.

They’ll also have a decision to make between the pipes.  Alexandar Georgiev showed some promise last season as Henrik Lundqvist’s backup and the soon-to-be-signed Igor Shestyorkin will be starting his first season in North America.  Who gets the nod to start next season and does the other become potential trade bait with several teams looking for promising young netminders?

The Rangers are on the right track in their rebuilding process so I don’t expect a lot of roster turnover this summer.  They should stick with the plan they have in place and if they do that while adding a couple of pieces here and there, they’ll be in good shape moving forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

This edition of the PHR Mailbag looks at what’s next for the Flyers, Nazem Kadri’s future in Toronto, Mike Smith’s struggles with Calgary, Ken Holland’s situation in Detroit, what Buffalo needs behind the bench, and the vacant Rangers presidency.

Questions that were submitted that aren’t covered here will run in a separate mailbag piece next weekend.

FortArnold: Disappointing season for the Flyers. They will have money to spend and most likely need to find an opening in their lineup for Morgan Frost. Where do you see them looking to add to this team and who may be sent packing?

Earlier this month, GM Chuck Fletcher acknowledged that his defense corps could get older next season which is a pretty strong inference that they intend to add to that position.  They have a very strong foundation of young blueliners in Shayne Gostisbehere, Travis Sanheim, Ivan Provorov, and Robert Hagg but none of those players are really ready to be true anchors of a back end at this time.  Aside from Erik Karlsson, there aren’t any defenders like that available on the open market so I wouldn’t be shocked if they turn to the trade market to get a number two or three rearguard that’s signed for a few years.  Doing that wouldn’t give them that anchor player but would give them very strong depth throughout the group and as we’re seeing, teams with strong defensive depth can still be successful even without a true number one option.

I also see them looking to add a second line center this summer.  Frost or Nolan Patrick should be that option down the road but he’s not ready for that role just yet while they probably want to keep Claude Giroux on the wing.  Doing so would also allow them to integrate Frost in as a winger, allowing him to develop without some of the tough defensive responsibilities right away.  They should be able to fill that void in free agency.

As for who could go, I don’t expect a whole lot of departures.  I know Gostisbehere has been in trade speculation before but moving him off a down year isn’t deal.  Their big-ticket players aren’t going anywhere nor will they need to move anyone out for cap reasons.  If they have to trade for that impact defenseman, I could see the 11th overall pick being in play and someone like winger Oskar Lindblom could work as a sweetener in a deal.  But beyond that, I suspect the departures will simply be the players whose roster spots are dislodged by the offseason acquisitions (players like Phil Varone and Andrew MacDonald).

JDGoat: Has Kadri played his last game in Toronto if they lose the series?

I don’t think so.  I thought GM Kyle Dubas passed up on the perfect opportunity to deal him last offseason.  They had just landed John Tavares and Ryan O’Reilly had been dealt which left the market for impact centers basically empty.  He was coming off another 30-goal season and had clearly established himself as a top-six pivot.  As a result, Toronto would have moved him at peak value.

Fast forward to today.  As expected, Kadri had a down year offensively (playing on the third line will do that) and also dealt with a concussion.  And as we all know, his suspension history is starting to be a bit concerning as well.  While I have no doubt that there would still be a significant trade market for Kadri, his value has still undoubtedly dipped compared to last summer.  If Dubas didn’t want to move him then, he won’t want to move him now.

Yes, the Maple Leafs will need to free up some salary cap room this summer with some big contracts about to hit their books but there are other players they’ll look to move to alleviate those concerns.  (Patrick Marleau comes to mind as a trade candidate after July 1st to a team looking to get to the cap floor while spending less than that on salaries.)  Kadri’s leash is certainly smaller now but he should still be in Toronto in October when next season starts.

sovietcanuckistanian: How short of a leash does Mike Smith get in the playoffs before they switch him out? He looks a little vulnerable and – on paper at least – seems to be the weak link on a potential Cup contender team. Thanks again sir.

You were onto something with this question (which was asked back when this series was still close).  Smith looked shaky in some moments but I can’t put all the blame on him.  Calgary’s defense corps is supposed to be one of the top groups in the league and they allowed more than 50 shots in back-to-back games.  I think that made it difficult to make a change.  Sure, he coughed up six in Game Three but he made 50 saves so it’s tough to make the case to pull him.  He follows that up with 49 saves on 52 shots the next game which makes it nearly impossible to put David Rittich in for Game Five.  Smith wasn’t great at times in the series but he didn’t get a lot of help either.

Goaltending was the one big weakness that the Flames had during the year and there wasn’t a whole lot they could do about it as no starting goalies were traded throughout the year.  Smith is a free agent this summer and I expect Calgary will go in a different direction with several other starting goalies likely to be out there on the open market.

Connorsoxfan: Why is Holland staying on in Detroit? Haven’t there been a ton of Seattle rumors? That’s not a realistic option anymore, right?

Seattle is still two years away from starting up so they don’t really need a GM or a full-time hockey operations staff for another year.  In terms of other GM vacancies, there’s only one in Edmonton and Holland has already informed them he’s not interested in that job, per a report from TSN’s Darren Dreger (Twitter link).

With really nowhere else to go, why not stay in Detroit?  Holland can use the upcoming season to decide if he wants to stay as an advisor and remain with the Red Wings or if the itch to be a GM returns.  If it’s the former, he can stay where he is and if it’s the latter, his contract will be up right around the time that Seattle will be hiring and by then, there may be another vacancy or two around the league as well.

sabres3277: Which direction do the Sabres need to go for a head coach?? A veteran coach or someone else??

In this day and age, there isn’t much appetite to bring in a veteran coach with the reputation of being a disciplinarian but that’s what I think they need.  Their young core needs some structure and can’t be allowed to just willfully coast at times which is what happened down the stretch.  It’s true that these types of coaches tend to have a short shelf life but let’s face it, all Buffalo coaches seem to have a short shelf life.

I think someone like Dave Tippett makes some sense for them.  He has some experience working with younger players but can also crack the whip at times.  It’s notable that he hasn’t been mentioned in some of the various head coaching searches around the league though so perhaps he’s enjoying his time with Seattle and may have some assurances of a role on that staff when the team is closer to debuting.

Whichever route they wind up going, GM Jason Botterill needs to do a better job of supplementing their core.  He has made a couple of moves to help their defense but it still needs work.  The forwards need a better supporting cast to take some of the pressure off.  If those things don’t happen, it may not matter who gets hired as a flawed roster can only go so far, especially in a tough division with three of the top teams in the league at the moment.

mz311: With Yzerman now in Detroit, who are the top options to replace Glen Sather as the Rangers’ President?

As things stand, it appears the list of options begins and ends with Columbus team president John Davidson.  The long-time Ranger has had success in that role with both the Blues and Blue Jackets and certainly has familiarity with New York during his time with the Blueshirts.  On the surface, I think he’d be a great fit to replace Sather.

Larry Brooks of the New York Post points out that the Rangers haven’t been searching for prospective candidates beyond Davidson and Yzerman and aren’t even doing due diligence on other options.  That suggests that they’re pretty confident that they will wind up with Davidson whenever Columbus is ousted from the postseason.

If that falls through, I wonder if they’d take a run at Trevor Linden who held that position with Vancouver.  He’s comfortable with a rebuilding situation having overseen one with the Canucks and didn’t deviate from his plan to the point where he left when ownership was reportedly seeking a quicker turnaround.  I think he’d be a good fit in that role for them but it certainly seems like they believe they will wind up with Davidson when all is said and done.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Tampa Bay’s dominance, Phil Housley’s future in Buffalo, the Adam Fox situation, the upcoming draft, Boston’s injury replacement, the Rangers, and teams that could be primed to shake things up with an early postseason exit.

sovietcanuckistanian: Does anybody in the East have a legit shot at beating the buzz saw that seems to be Tampa? I know it’s the playoffs/anything can happen and the track record of Presidents’ Trophy winners winning it all is spotty, but it’s hard to want to bet against them given everyone else in the East (or West it would seem). Thanks in advance.

I certainly wouldn’t want to bet against the Lightning but I could see Boston and Toronto legitimately having a shot from their own division.  The Bruins are a playoff-tested team and their top line is certainly a dominant one.  They’re also getting strong goaltending that’s capable of stealing a game or two.  With a decent back end, that will give them a chance.

If Toronto gets through that opening series, they certainly have the offensive firepower and depth to match up well.  Like Tampa, they’re also a pretty quick team.  Their defense concerns me but it’d be tough to rule the Maple Leafs out of a high-scoring series.

From the Metropolitan Division, Washington beat them last year and the core is largely the same this time around.  If they did it once, they could do it twice.

Considering how dominant Tampa Bay has been this season, they are more than deservedly the favorites no matter which matchups they wind up with.  That said, it’s far from a given that they make it through as there are a few teams that are capable of giving them a tough series at the very least.

ThePriceWasRight: Do you think between a poor 1st season and collapse in the 2nd half this season that Housley is shown the door?

I think it’s a lot more of an option now than it was a month ago given how awful they’ve been but I think Buffalo may be inclined to give him one more look for next season.  It has been a bit of a revolving door behind the bench in recent years and at some point, they have to show a bit of patience, don’t they?

Despite their poor play as of late, there have been some positives this season for sure, especially up front.  Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart are having career years while Jeff Skinner was one of the elite scorers for most of the season before tailing off as of late.  Rasmus Dahlin has developed nicely in his rookie year as well.  Several core young players developing and showing improvement has to work in his favor.

Yes, they’ve had some difficulty keeping the puck out of their own net but part of the blame for that has to lie with GM Jason Botterill.  Their goalie tandem had all sorts of question marks coming into the season and they still do while their back end isn’t the deepest either.  That’s not to absolve Housley entirely but it’s not all on him either.

If it was up to me, I’d give him another look next season with what should be a bolstered group as they have plenty of cap space to work with this summer.  However, if they start slow in 2019-20, then the time will be right to make a change.

mikedickinson: Adam Fox is reported to be going back to Harvard for his senior year. He was the key to the Calgary/Carolina deal from the Canes side. Yes, we are deep on defense, but you can’t just lose a young stud like that. Think the Canes will try to sign him as a free agent?

If he makes it to free agency in August of 2020, they’d surely try to sign him.  Why wouldn’t they?  Nashville went after Jimmy Vesey even after he made it clear that he was testing the market and Carolina would certainly do the same in this situation.

To me, the bigger question is whether or not he’d be property of the Hurricanes by the time we get to that point.  If he indicates to the team in the coming days (or even months) that he’s going to play it out and go to the open market, I could see Carolina trying to move his rights for a conditional draft pick.  If there are certain teams he’s amenable to signing with, dealing him this summer and getting something for him (or at least getting the potential to get something) may be the right move for them.

tigers22: After Hughes and Kakko who are the next best prospects? How many goalie prospects could be drafted in the first round?

Lethbridge center Dylan Cozens has been a near-lock to be a top-five pick since before the season started.  He took a big jump forward offensively this season and is a strong skater for his size.  Russian winger Vasili Podkolzin could be a top-line winger and has moved up to the number three spot in many rankings.  However, there are some questions as to his willingness to cross the pond which could hurt his stock a little bit.  While he won’t go with this group, winger Cole Caufield has a whopping 52 goals in 54 games with the US NTDP.  His lack of size will cause him to fall but in terms of raw offensive upside, he’s among the best in this draft class.

In terms of goalies going in the first round, there might actually be one for a change.  (There have only been two since 2013.)  Spencer Knight of the US NTDP is the consensus pick to buck the trend.  There are a lot of teams that firmly believe in not picking a goalie this high but Knight is viewed as one of the better American netminders in recent years so a team towards the back of the round (or with multiple first-round picks) could certainly

Connorsoxfan: Is Kuhlman an adequate replacement for Kuraly? I saw he scored the other night after picking off a pass but that’s the only clip I’ve seen of him so far. Should I be worried about that line against Toronto come playoff time?

While losing Sean Kuraly hurts, Karson Kuhlman should be a capable replacement if he is indeed in for the first round.  The Maple Leafs are a team that has a fair bit of firepower in their bottom six group so having another skilled forward like Kuhlman in wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing.

The bigger concern is not having Kuraly’s penalty killing ability against a Toronto power play that can be quite dominant when it gets going.  They’ve deployed Kuhlman in a limited PK role in the games he has played but Kuraly is the better fit in that role.

However, it could all be moot as with Marcus Johansson back in the lineup, there really isn’t a regular spot for Kuhlman at the moment.  If they do need to call on him against Toronto though, I think he’s a better fit against them than he would be against some other opponents.

acarneglia: Are the Rangers a few big signings away in FA from being contenders again? By big signings, I mean Karlsson and Panarin.

Well, any team that lands both Erik Karlsson and Artemi Panarin in free agency would likely be considered as contenders, at least to some degree.  I have a hard time thinking that the Rangers (or anyone) could get both of them and even if they did, I don’t think they’d really get back into contention right away.

With the youth movement the team is currently on, they will be counting on their young players to play big roles in the near future.  Adding over $20MM in financial commitments in this scenario would only up the pressure as they’d have to move out some of their mid-tier players to afford those two.

Are players like Filip Chytil and Lias Andersson ready to be impact forwards?  Can Anthony Deangelo and Libor Hajek be full-timers on the back end and be more than third pairing players?  If the answer isn’t yes, they’re probably not ready to be true contenders and contend with the likes of Tampa Bay, even with two star additions like that.

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The end of March is upon us and playoff scenarios are starting to become more and more clear. Teams like the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs have a good idea what is coming in the postseason, and are trying to peak at the right moment. Meanwhile, the draft lottery is just around the corner and the Colorado Avalanche look like they’ll have the best odds despite currently sitting in a playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Los Angeles Kings and Detroit Red Wings meanwhile hope they can jump up a few spots and land their choice of Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko.

With the regular season coming to an end, it’s time to run another mailbag. We’ll be answering as many questions as we can this weekend. You can submit your query by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.

If you missed our last mailbag, it came out in two parts given all the questions. First Brian tackled the Columbus Blue Jackets aggressive trade deadline and gave his thoughts on the playoff format, before digging into the upcoming negotiations with Erik Karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden Schenn while taking a shot at the next Edmonton Oilers GM hire.

In this edition of the mailbag, the discussion focuses on the Rangers, Erik Karlsson’s future, the Blues, candidates for the GM role in Edmonton, value contracts, and who could be on the move from Chicago this summer.

acarneglia: Are the Rangers a lot closer than people think in regards to returning to relevancy? Take a look at the number of one-goal games they’ve played in.

CHRISJENJ: What are the Rangers offseason plans? Do you see them either signing or trading for a big-time player like Artemi Panarin?

The pain may be coming to an end sooner than later in New York if things go right.  They have a quality stable of prospects up front and between the pipes (the back end is coming along but still needs some work) and they’re going to have plenty of cap space.  I expect them to try to use it on the open market and go after some top talent.  If they succeed in doing so, they’ll be right back in the mix in the Metropolitan – not a contender right away but they’ll be in solid shape.

If they can’t land that big fish, I don’t expect them to turn around and try to trade for a big-ticket player instead.  One more year on this particular track wouldn’t be a terrible idea as their young forwards aren’t ready for major roles just yet.  Accordingly, why spend some of their extra young assets at that time?  If you can get the player for free, great.  If not, stick to the plan and continue to develop the youngsters.  That might not necessarily have them on the playoff path for 2019-20 but they are very much back on the path to relevancy.  One way or the other, they shouldn’t be near the basement next season.

kenleyfornia2: Will Erik Karlsson be one and done in San Jose?

Unless they really have concerns about his ability to stay healthy, I don’t think so.  With what they gave up in quantity, it’s hard to think that they were looking at him as a straight rental player.  I figured there was a good chance that they had the framework of a deal in place already and that something could have been coming once the trade deadline passed but clearly, that wasn’t the case.

San Jose has shown that they can win without Karlsson if they choose to allocate more of their money up front this summer; a long-term deal for him could push their back end spending towards the $35MM mark by the time they fill out the rest of their group.  That’s probably a bit too much but I still think he’ll be kept and veterans like Justin Braun and Brendan Dillon will be moved over the summer to lower their spending on defense for next season.

Paul Heyman: Do the Blues try and extend Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden Schenn this offseason seeing as they are eligible for free agency next year?

They’ll certainly try.  Most teams will look to lock up their core pending unrestricted free agents as soon as they’re eligible to in July.  Regardless of the situation a team is in, a top player locked up should be worth a lot more than he would be as a rental.  I expect GM Doug Armstrong will have cursory discussions with their agents leading up to the draft; even though new deals couldn’t be signed until July, they can talk beforehand.

The really interesting question will be what happens if they don’t sign right away?  St. Louis hasn’t shied away from shaking up their core and there were trade discussions involving both players earlier this season when things weren’t going well.  If Pietrangelo or Schenn (or both) show some hesitance in extending, I believe those trade discussions will resume.  We know Armstrong is comfortable taking a top player into his walk year without a new deal (such as Paul Stastny last season) but given that June is becoming the time to make bigger trades, it’s not crazy to think that one of those two could be moved if an early extension isn’t in the cards.

Zack35: Pretend you’re Oilers CEO Bob Nicholson. Who would you hire to be GM?

If one of the candidates is capable of building a time machine that can undo some of Peter Chiarelli’s deals that haven’t worked out, I’d go with that one.

In all seriousness, I think this would be a good fit for Mark Hunter.  While he hasn’t been a GM in the NHL before, he has four years of experience with Toronto and rose up the ranks there where he was the runner up to replace Lou Lamoriello.

However, that’s not the main reason I’d give him the nod.  I like his scouting and junior backgrounds and I’m Nicholson, those areas are a priority.  Edmonton is going to be cap-strapped for a long time so the ability to identify and bring in capable, cost-controlled youngsters will be paramount to their future success (or lack thereof).  Hunter’s track record of frequently finding quality young talent for OHL London helps him stand out amongst the crowd.

If Hunter isn’t interested, I’d likely turn my focus to Ron Hextall.  I liked what he did in Philadelphia in terms of slowly building up a base of young talent and let’s face it, that’s what the Oilers need to do.  If he wasn’t interested, I’d then look at Mike Futa in Los Angeles – he has a similar background in development and scouting to Hunter with more experience at the NHL level.

ThePriceWasRight: Who are your top three underpaid players (not counting rookie contracts)?

There are plenty of players in the $1MM – $4MM range that could easily qualify for this list as their level of play considerably outperforms their AAV.  Players like Andrei Vasilevskiy, Brendan Gallagher, Roman Josi, and Erik Gustafsson (who quietly is up to 50 points already) come to mind just to name a few.  Nikita Kucherov makes more than that but is vastly underpaid with his new deal only kicking in next season.  However, those other players will be in line for much richer deals in the next year or two so instead of looking at them, I’m going to focus instead on some top-end guys making mid-tier money that will be significantly underpaid for at least years to come.  To me, deals like these are the top value contracts in the league.

Dallas defenseman John Klingberg has emerged as a legitimate number one defenseman in the NHL.  He’s in the top-15 in the league in ice time per game and points per game by a blueliner (among qualifying players).  Players like this are getting over $8MM per year minimum on recently-signed contracts but Klingberg will only cost the Stars $4.25MM for three more years after this one.  A number one blueliner making number four money is a huge bargain for them.

Toronto’s Morgan Rielly is also in a similar situation.  He’s their undisputed top defender and is among the top point producers among NHL blueliners.  Brent Burns, the lone player ahead of him is at $8MM per year.  Erik Karlsson is close to him in terms of points per game and he’s widely expected to surpass the $10MM per year mark this summer.  John Carlson is also narrowly behind Rielly and also carries an $8MM cap hit.  Meanwhile, Rielly sits at $5MM for three more years after this one.  He’d be making a whole lot more if he was hitting free agency anytime soon.

Flyers center Sean Couturier looked like he’d be their second center of the future and signed a contract that was commensurate with that type of role.  Since then, he has emerged as a legitimate top liner and is on pace for his second straight season with at least 30 goals and 70 points while logging a little over 22 minutes a night.  There was talk earlier this season that discussions for an extension for Matt Duchene – likely the top UFA center available – was in the $8.5MM-plus range.  Couturier checks in at basically half of that ($4.333MM) for three years left after that one.

In terms of cost per point, these three aren’t among the leaders in that regard.  However, they’re all players that are significantly underpaid relative to their peers around the league and will be in that situation for quite a while yet.

@Jents71: What major Blackhawks piece is going to be traded away in the summer?

I don’t see GM Stan Bowman making any major subtractions to his roster this offseason.  In fact, I think they’ll be looking to add a big piece in free agency.  Panarin has been the speculative link given his previous time with Chicago but if they don’t add him, they’ll likely go after another big piece.  Their late-season run will likely make Bowman think that this core has one more season where they can make some noise so the goal will be adding instead of subtracting.

That said, one player I could see them looking to move is center Artem Anisimov.  He has been part of trade speculation for a while now but the emergence of Dylan Strome gives them someone that can legitimately step in and play behind Jonathan Toews down the middle.

With Alex DeBrincat and Strome in need of new contracts after next season, Chicago will want to free up a bit of money for those deals.  With a cap hit of $4.55MM through 2020-21, moving Anisimov would give them some funds to play with to lock up those youngsters and that type of money for a third line pivot is something the Blackhawks can’t really afford.  He has a full no-move clause but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Chicago ask him to waive it this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.