PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include CBA discussion, Chicago’s veteran defensemen, arbitration walkaway rules, which key RFA will be next to sign, Florida’s offseason spending spree, the Patrick Marleau trade, Jake Allen’s trade value, the slow summer for the Kings, Pat Maroon’s future with St. Louis, and the failed Nazem Kadri to Calgary trade.

This is the back half of our mailbag covering the questions from two weeks ago.  Click here to read the first half.

@K9GY: When RFA & GM are at different salary numbers….the easy way to solve it is….make base salary at lowest dollar figure and the rest performance based…

It’s a bit of a unique idea but it’s not one that is permissible in the CBA.  Article 50.2(C)(2) of the CBA states that the only players that are eligible for performance incentives in a contract are as follows:

(i) Players with Entry Level SPCs under Article 9 of this Agreement;
(ii) Players aged 35 or older as of June 30 prior to the League Year in which the SPC is to be effective, who have signed a one-year SPC for that League Year; and
(iii) Players who are “400-plus game Players” for pension purposes, and who: (i) in the last year of their most recent SPC, spent 100 days or more on the Injured Reserve List; and (ii) have signed a one-year SPC for the current or upcoming League Year.

Restricted free agents don’t fall into any of those categories so the idea of a bonus-laden deal with minimal guarantees isn’t an option here.  It’s also hard to think the NHLPA would sign off to putting something like this in the next agreement either.

skogs14: What’s the likelihood that the Blackhawks find a taker for Keith/Seabrook or Anisimov? What kind of return could you expect?

These players can be put into three separate categories.  Not only could Chicago find a taker for Duncan Keith, they’d also get a good return.  He’s not a true number one option anymore but he can still play top-pairing minutes and at a $5.538MM cap hit, he isn’t really hurting a team cap wise.  That could change over the final four years of his contract but there is still tangible trade value right now (a top-four defender plus another asset at a minimum) if they wanted to deal him.  That said, I don’t think they want to.

As for Brent Seabrook, they’d probably like to get out from under that contract.  He’s more of a number four option at this point and with five years left at $6.875MM per, that’s not a deal any team is going to want to assume.

A week ago when I originally had this question answered, I had Artem Anisimov as being the most likely to be dealt when his $2MM signing bonus was paid.  That wound up happening.  I thought they’d be able to get a mid-round pick or similar prospect as well as a player back.  That didn’t quite happen as they wound up with just Zack Smith (and, perhaps more importantly, $1.3MM in cap space).  It’s an okay deal for them as Smith fits better in the role that Anisimov was likely to fill but they certainly lost the more talented player in the swap.

Greg S: For teams up closes to the cap ceiling, what happens if an RFA with arbitration rights is given more money than the team can spend, or would force a trade to be made in order to have him on the team? Can the team refuse to sign him? Or would you have to sign them, then waive them?

Teams do have an option to walk away from a player if they feel an arbitration award is too high although there are rules on how they’re used.  The threshold for 2019 is $4,397,832; the amount increases annually by the percentage increase to the league minimum salary in the preceding season.  Teams are also limited by the number of arbitration awards to their players.  For teams with one or two awards, they can only walk away from one.  Three or four awards opens up a second walkaway option while a team with five awards (which is extremely rare) has access to three walkaways.

There’s still hope for teams where the award falls under that threshold though.  Teams can go over the salary cap by 10% (though there are special rules for what counts against that cap…I’ll spare you the minutia of that one) so even if an award puts a team over the Upper Limit, they’d still have a couple of months to make a corresponding move as they don’t have to be in cap compliance until right before the regular season gets underway.

pawtucket: Who will be the first high-profile RFA to sign (not named Aho)? Are they all playing the waiting game to see who gets what for leverage?

I figured it was going to be a long game of chicken all summer long and Sebastian Aho signing quickly doesn’t really affect that all that much other than giving teams a bit of a baseline to work with.  The only leverage at this point is to not sign and hope the other side gives in which is another reason why a lot of these deals are going to drag out this summer.

As for who may be the next one to sign, I think it’s going to be a defenseman.  There are enough forwards out there that there are going to be a lot of comparables to work with.  That isn’t the case on the back end as Charlie McAvoy and Zach Werenski are the only top pairing ones that remain unsigned.

So I’ll take Werenski for being the next to sign.  Columbus has plenty of cap space and with so many pricey players leaving, they have the ability to frontload a contract without worrying about how it affects their overall budget.  He’s basically in a class of his own this summer (there is a drop-off between him and McAvoy) so there shouldn’t necessarily be a desire to wait it out to see what others get.  It may still take some time but he’ll get a deal done before the other forwards do.

Mark Black: Are the additions of Bobrovsky, Connolly, and Quenneville and a full uninjured season of Trocheck enough to get the Panthers back in the playoffs? And how much will they regret that Bobrovsky contract next year when they are paying goaltenders 13+ million and still need to re-sign or replace Montembeault, Hoffman, Weegar, and Dadonov?

Let’s add Anton Stralman to that list of additions as well.  I know his contract has been ridiculed for the high price tag but he brings some stability to a back end that hasn’t had a whole lot of it.

I’m confident in calling them a playoff team.  It may just be a Wild Card spot but they should be a pretty safe bet to get in.  Sergei Bobrovsky is worth several wins on his own, even if he plays like he did with Columbus in the regular season last year (below his usual level of performance).  Assuming the team stays healthy, that’s probably enough to get them in right there.

Then there’s the offense which is among the best in the East.  This was a top-ten group despite Vincent Trocheck’s injuries last season and it’s basically the same group coming back.  Even if Mike Hoffman takes a bit of a step back after a career year, the continued development of players like Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Jonathan Huberdeau should help offset that.  They’ll be in good shape.

As for a year from now, I don’t see Samuel Montembeault looking for much of a raise.  To be honest, I don’t think he’s in the NHL next season and that their backup goalie isn’t currently in the organization (they’re poised to jump on the waiver-eligible youngsters if they so desire).  MacKenzie Weegar’s next deal shouldn’t be too pricey either.  Yes, they’ll probably be forced to pick to keep only one of Mike Hoffman or Evgeni Dadonov but to get a franchise goalie, that’s an acceptable price to pay next summer.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for New York’s teams, finding a fit for Jake Gardiner, offer sheets, Rasmus Ristolainen’s future in Buffalo, Ryan Dzingel, Nikita Gusev’s trade market, Niklas Kronwall’s future, and the latest on Calgary’s arena situation.  As we’ve done over the past several mailbags, we’ll run another edition next weekend so if your question doesn’t appear here, look for it then.

acarneglia: Do the Rangers trade someone, like Kreider or Shattenkirk, or buy someone out, like Smith or Shattenkirk, to get more cap room to sign their RFAs?

@DAN35NY: Will the Rangers make more moves and what do you see who can be moved?

If extension talks with Chris Kreider go nowhere, then he’d become a logical trade candidate.  While some may want to wait until closer to the deadline to deal an impact rental player, I still like the idea of moving him now.  They’d get a sizable return and alleviate some salary cap concerns.  Of course, an extension is still preferable but a Kreider trade isn’t a bad Plan B.

Other trade candidates would be winger Vladislav Namestnikov and center Ryan Strome.  Namestnikov ($4MM) hasn’t produced like he did with Tampa Bay and with their young incoming wingers in Kaapo Kakko and Vitali Kravtsov, the odds of him getting more of a chance to produce.  They’d be selling low but his value may only go lower if his role is lessened when the season starts.  Strome ($3.1MM) was decent last season but if they want more playing time for their young centers, he could be expendable.  However, given what his trade value was last season, they shouldn’t be expecting too much in return.

I think they’d like to go this route over a buyout to save the salary cap implications down the road.  If they do have to that way though, it’s basically a coin flip.  Buying out Brendan Smith is the lesser of two evils (particularly from a PR perspective) but he can go to the minors after clearing waivers whereas Kevin Shattenkirk (NMC) can’t.  If GM Jeff Gorton covets greater in-season flexibility, then maybe it’s Shattenkirk who goes knowing that Smith can go to Hartford to free up a spot later on if needed.  That’s a last-ditch resort though.  Pavel Buchnevich’s arbitration hearing is near the end of the month so they still have a couple of weeks to work with.

Pawtucket: Where does Gardiner best fit?

In terms of pure fit (money aside), Montreal and Winnipeg stand out as good options.  The Canadiens lack a legitimate top-four option on their left side, especially one that provides a punch offensively.  Winnipeg’s left side features Josh Morrissey and not a whole lot else.

However, neither of those teams realistically have the type of money that Gardiner is believed to still be seeking.  To be honest, not a lot of teams do which is part of the reason that he’s still sitting out there nearly two weeks into free agency.

In terms of teams that have a vacancy and cap space, the Kings stand out as their left-side depth is shaky but they’re not really in a position to be adding veteran help at the moment as they’re in a soft rebuild.  The Devils don’t really have an opening this season on their left side but with Andy Greene and Sami Vatanen a year away from UFA status, Gardiner would represent a nice hedge against them leaving town.  I thought if the Flyers were to trade Shayne Gostisbehere that Gardiner would make some sense as a replacement but it doesn’t appear as if they’re moving their young defender which takes them out of the equation.

At this point, Gardiner may want to consider a one-year pillow contract in the hopes that staying healthy will alleviate some concerns about his back.  That would also expand his market a bit more.  But right now, there really isn’t a great fit for him.  I like Winnipeg the most here but they’d need to clear out another contract first (or sign Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine to cheaper than expected deals).  This has already dragged out longer than expected and it may take a while yet for something to get done.

nk: If the Isles do not offer sheet Marner or Laine, what move(s) do you expect them to make this summer?

@billagave: What is next move for NYI?

I don’t expect a big offer sheet coming from them.  To be honest, I think they’re pretty much finished beyond re-signing their RFAs, headlined by Anthony Beauvillier.  That will leave them with a fair bit of in-season flexibility, even if they opt to give Beauvillier a longer-term deal.

If they do want to tweak a bit more, I believe they’ll look at upgrading their center depth.  Someone like Derick Brassard makes some sense on a short-term deal.  There’s a middle-six role available for him and it would be a pretty low-risk proposition overall.  Brian Boyle anchoring the fourth line would make some sense as well and GM Lou Lamoriello has already traded for him once before.

Depending on how the UFA market shakes out on the back end, there could be an opportunity to cash in on some of their surplus defensive depth.  That market is certainly developing slower than expected though so anything like that may come later in the summer or even closer to training camp.

thefenwayfaithful: Why aren’t we seeing more offer sheets this year? I understand everyone wants to “play nice” but with so many teams up against the cap and unlikely to match, it’s bizarre that no one but Montreal has tried to take advantage. If you have the opportunity to put out an offer sheet on a guy you want, the worst case scenario is you’re forcing a team to tie up cap space giving you a deadline advantage when they run into more cap challenges. Slims down the competition. Maybe I’m too cutthroat…

Offer sheets rarely actually yield the player a team is coveting so for some teams, they just decide that there isn’t much point to trying.  You can decide for yourself how much credence you lend to the notion that there is an agreement between some GMs to not engage in those either.

I think part of the challenge this year is figuring out a threshold where a team is comfortable paying the picks and getting the player at that price.  Look at what Montreal did.  The offer sheet for Sebastian Aho was clearly crafted to minimize the compensation as it was clear that they didn’t want to go into that next tier.  They were largely ridiculed for that despite it being the third-largest offer sheet in league history and the highest ever in terms of AAV.  If someone wasn’t willing to go higher for Aho (if they were, he’d have signed with that team instead of the Canadiens), how many are going to jump into that next tier for any of the remaining free agents?

On top of that, how many can afford to?  The list of teams with cap space at or greater than $10MM is pretty small when you factor in players that still need to be re-signed.  Not all of them have the draft pick capital to present a substantial offer sheet either.  The stars just don’t seem to align here.  If there’s going to be another offer sheet, I think it’s going to be at the lower tier (someone like Brendan Lemieux of the Rangers or Marcus Pettersson of the Penguins, players on cap-strapped teams that won’t command expensive deals in terms of draft pick compensation), not a top-end player.

sabres3277: The Sabres: Is it still possible that Ristolainen could be traded for a forward? I like the moves so far but I think they need to add some grit up front or acquiring a player in a trade. What do you think?

While their offseason additions (Colin Miller and Henri Jokiharju) make it more of a possibility that Ristolainen could be on the move, I still wouldn’t classify it as a likely outcome.  For starters, Jokiharju is waiver-exempt and could start in the minors next year.  Miller and Brandon Montour (their other longer-term right-shot option) still have some upside but neither have really been asked to play top minutes so far.  While Ristolainen may be better suited for the second pairing, trading him for a forward takes away a significant security blanket.

It’s believed that they were asking prospective coaches during their interview stage how they’d get Ristolainen back at the top of his game.  I know there are reports saying he’s available but I think it’s more of a case of they’re listening to offers and not actively trying to deal him.

You had initially mentioned Micheal Ferland as part of your question but as we now know, he’s off to Vancouver.  He’d have made some sense as a physical player that can score with the latter element being the more important.  Of the pickups that the Sabres have made, it’s still fair to question whether or not they’ll be able to score enough.  If they can find a way to free up enough room to sign another free agent (they still have a few restricted free agents to re-sign that will eat up most of their cap room), adding scoring depth would be my priority over grit.

M34: What’s with the hate for Ryan Dzingel? The biggest knock on the guy is that his production dipped when his ice time and exposure to top line guys went down. Seems that would be the case for anyone, doesn’t it? One could make the case that even the leagues’ biggest stars would suffer a decline in production if they were relegated to third line minutes with third line talents around them.

What I’m getting at is, as an Avs fan, Sakic’s moves tell me that he thinks Burakovsky and Donskoi are ready to step up productivity with larger roles; why not go get Dzingel who has already proven he can do that? Doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

Dzingel’s track record of success isn’t the deepest so I’m not sure how proven he really was in the eyes of general managers.  He basically has two seasons of above-average production under his belt and in one of those, he wound up being a healthy scratch at one point in the playoffs.  It’s safe to infer that those struggles played a role in his market being pretty soft.

Just because he produced like a top line player with the Senators doesn’t mean that he is one.  Someone had to play big minutes for them and he got the opportunity (and, to his credit, made the most of it).  However, that role wasn’t available in Colorado or elsewhere.  In terms of having success in a secondary role, there are arguably as many question marks as there are with Andre Burakovsky and Joonas Donskoi.  His output in that situation is still somewhat spotty.

Personally, I’d have signed Dzingel over trading two pretty good draft picks for Burakovsky, even if Dzingel’s $3.375MM AAV with Carolina winds up being a bit higher than what Burakovsky ultimately gets.  He wouldn’t have been a bad fit in Colorado to give them some extra depth but I suspect their focus is to get Mikko Rantanen and some of their other RFAs under contract first to see how much budget room they ultimately have before pursuing other free agents.

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Free agent frenzy has come and gone, though several interesting names remain available. The market is being held up by a huge crop of outstanding restricted free agents,  ready to demand expensive contracts that will eat up cap dollars and limit other opportunities to spend. The dog days of summer are almost here, and hockey fans are starting to put away their favorite sweater only to find out their local baseball team is already 90 games into the MLB season.

Still, there are minor signings happening daily and trade rumors still bubbling up now and again. The most hardcore fan may be dissecting the cap to find out just how much their team can offer Jake Gardiner and Micheal Ferland (update: apparently the answer is $14MM), while also figuring out a young player to target with their leftover draft capital. There are still teams that will improve over the coming weeks and set themselves up for a run at the Stanley Cup in 2020.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of our mailbag. You can submit your query by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure you get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through as many as possible when the mailbag runs this weekend.

If you missed our last edition, it was split into two parts that you can read here and here. The first tackled issues like Jacob Trouba’s next contract and predicted trades for both Phil Kessel and Cody Ceci, which each happened within just a few days. The second took a look at the free agent market and examined how the New York Rangers could be a good fit for Artemi Panarin.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Nathan MacKinnon’s contract, free agent targets for St. Louis, offer sheets, the Rangers, Artemi Panarin’s next contract, Boston and Buffalo’s summer plans, what Will Butcher’s next deal may cost, Darcy Kuemper’s trade value, and Ottawa’s potential for taking on a bad contract via trade.

M34: I can’t fathom MacKinnon playing out his entire contract at its current number. What happens first, a restructure or a holdout? And when?

While MacKinnon is on a very team-friendly deal, he has no available recourse here unlike if he was in the NFL or MLB.  Section 11.10 of the CBA states that contracts cannot be renegotiated.  As for holding out, while it’s technically possible, Colorado’s response would simply be to toll the contract for failure to report which would wind up extending the contract.  That’s what the Islanders did with Evgeni Nabokov years ago after he failed to report to them upon being claimed off entry waivers from Detroit.

MacKinnon’s only real option is to play out the contract and get to unrestricted free agency in 2023 where he can try to make up for missing out on bigger money as a restricted free agent.  In the meantime, his deal (and Mark Scheifele’s in Winnipeg) will be at the forefront of the minds of those in this RFA class as it will serve as a reminder of the downside of taking a long-term deal over getting to UFA eligibility quicker.

haubrick4: With the Blues so close to the cap, who do you see them targeting in Free Agency to fill out the roster?

Not a whole lot, to be honest.  I don’t think they’re in particularly rough shape when it comes to the Upper Limit; they’ll be able to get the rest of their restricted free agents signed without much difficulty.  However, they won’t have a lot of room left to supplement their roster with players on the open market when all is said and done.

I could see them trying to bring Patrick Maroon back.  Failing that, a similar player (someone like Wayne Simmonds) comes to mind.  Beyond that though, their roster will pretty much be filled out once they re-sign their own free agents.  I wouldn’t be surprised if their focus on Monday will actually be signing defensemen that will be ticketed for the minors as their depth is a little thin there.

ThePriceWasRight: With the Sens being under the floor, rumours of Ceci and Boedker being shopped and tons of draft pick capital in 2020, are the Sens not a prime contender to dole out an offer sheet to an RFA?

While it’s true that Ottawa has plenty of cap space and all of their own top draft picks available to them (the ones that would be needed for an offer sheet), I think they’re anything but a prime contender for an offer sheet.

Yes, they have the cap room to make an above-market offer to try to lure a top RFA like Matthew Tkachuk or Mitch Marner but it’s pretty clear that they don’t have the budget room.  Ottawa is likely to look to add a cheap veteran or two to get above the Lower Limit of the cap but with where they are in terms of their rebuild, that’s about all the spending that would really be justified.

There’s no denying that adding a top RFA to their roster would improve them, but would doing so vault them into a playoff spot?  Probably not.  An offer sheet for a Tkachuk or a Marner would cost multiple first-round picks.  All of a sudden, they’re in another situation where they don’t have an unprotected lottery pick.  There’s always a risk to offer sheeting a prime player but for a team like Ottawa, the risk would be even higher.  They’ll stay away from one for now.

met man: Who will be the “backup “goalie on the Rangers next season?

I don’t think it will be the same player all season.  Both Alexandar Georgiev and Igor Shesterkin are waiver exempt which gives New York some options.  Georgiev certainly has done enough to earn a spot while Shesterkin’s upside is certainly intriguing.  One of them has to go down though as carrying three goalies isn’t a viable option and Henrik Lundqvist isn’t going anywhere.

Let’s get back to the waiver exemption.  My prediction on what will happen is that the goalies will go back and forth throughout the season.  That will give them some time with the Rangers (and perhaps lighten Lundqvist’s workload) while still giving them some extra ice time in the minors.  I’m not a fan of having a young netminder playing just 20 or 25 games while they can be in the AHL so this scenario is the next best option – they get some NHL time but also get to play in Hartford and see their workload get closer to 40 games apiece.

CoachWall: Do the Rangers have enough assets to make a run at a top-six forward? How seriously do they go after Panarin?

In terms of trade currency, they certainly do.  GM Jeff Gorton has done a nice job of restocking their prospect pool to the point where they could deal a prospect or two away and get a top-six piece with some team control in return.  That said, I’d question if that’s the right move for them.

The Jacob Trouba acquisition really didn’t cost them much – just a few months of a player they weren’t going to re-sign anyway in Kevin Hayes plus Neal Pionk, a capable player but not one with top-pairing ability or potential.  That didn’t really jeopardize their future so why not make that move?  But moving out some prospects carries some more risk, one they don’t necessarily have to take.

I like the free agent market for top-six help on the wings.  Panarin is certainly at the top of the list but there are some other options out there such as Anders Lee, Mats Zuccarello, and Gustav Nyquist, among others.  If they’ve decided that the rebuild is finished, going that route would be preferable to giving up pieces of your future.

Speaking of Panarin…

Dylan: Has the Karlsson signing possibly paved the way for Panarin to become the highest paid player in the league?

A couple of weeks ago, I sat down and mapped out my rankings and contract projections for free agents and in there, I initially had Erik Karlsson getting the biggest AAV so I’ll stick with that call here.  I wouldn’t be entirely shocked if Panarin eclipses an $11.5MM cap hit but he has some factors working against him, including the fact that he doesn’t play a premier position (center or defense).

I would be more than shocked if he gets more than Connor McDavid ($12.5MM).  He’s one of the best players in the league (if not the best), plays a premium position, is still young enough that there’s room for improvement, and he has outscored Panarin in each of the last three seasons.  If Paul Theofanous can somehow get Panarin more than McDavid despite all of that, give him the Agent of the Year award right then and there (as soon as someone actually creates that award).  He’ll probably be the highest-paid winger when all is said and done but not the highest-paid player.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Rangers, Phil Kessel, Cody Ceci’s future in Ottawa, Philadelphia’s offseason movement, what Dallas could do this summer, CBA talk, Jonathan Quick, San Jose’s veteran free agents, and the Olli Maatta trade.  As we’ve done over the last several mailbags, the questions will be split up with the ones not appearing here going in next weekend’s edition.

pawtucket: Does Trouba re-sign in New York or did the Rangers just give away a 1st rounder and Pionk for a 1-year rental?

met man: Now that the Rangers have obtained Trouba, what do you see as their next big move?

acarneglia: Which Rangers player, if any, is most likely to be traded at the draft? Do we see Lundqvist finally waive his NTC to chase a ring? Does NYR cut ties with Kreider?

Let’s tackle the New York questions together.

While technically, the Rangers didn’t get permission to speak to Jacob Trouba about an extension, the belief is that they were on the list of teams that the defenseman gave to Winnipeg that he’d like to be traded to.  I don’t think he does that if his intention was to just take a one-year deal and then hit the open market.  It may take some time but I expect them to get a long-term deal done in the range of $7MM to $8MM per season with considerable no-trade protection in the second year and beyond.

I’ve been saying for a while that New York would be wise to not make big splashes this summer and give their young core another season to see how they integrate into the lineup.  Clearly, they made one of those moves with Trouba but I’m not certain there will be another that’s at that magnitude.  They’ll try for Artemi Panarin but there’s no guarantee they get him.  Dealing away Chris Kreider is a distinct possibility if they can’t agree to terms on a long-term deal.  Talks have only been cursory thus far but that should change as we enter the week where some big trades are likely to be made.

As for who else could go, I think Jimmy Vesey could be on the move at some point.  They’ll be adding Kaapo Kakko and Vitali Kravtsov next season and all of a sudden, it doesn’t appear as if Vesey is going to be part of their long-term plans.  If that’s the case, the time to move him may very well be sooner than later.  Henrik Lundqvist has never shown an inclination to leave New York, even when their rebuild was in full force.  Now that they’re emerging from that, it’s hard to imagine he’ll suddenly have a change of heart.

@RMabie215: What trade did Kessel veto?

According to reports, Kessel blocked a trade that would have seen him go to Minnesota in a swap that would have also involved Jason Zucker (who now has essentially been dealt twice only to see the trade fall through).  Jack Johnson and Victor Rask were also suggested as players potentially in the swap but Pittsburgh has since dealt Olli Maatta from their surplus of blueliners.  Kessel has an eight-team trade list which doesn’t give GM Jim Rutherford much wiggle room to try to move him.

Lately, Rutherford has been talking about how he now expects to keep him and doesn’t really want to shake up the core very much.  At least to some degree, I think that’s just public posturing.  It’s pretty clear that head coach Mike Sullivan isn’t Kessel’s biggest fan so if the opportunity presents itself to bring in someone that might be a better fit, I expect the Penguins to pursue it despite the recent comments.

JDGoat: What are the chances between a Ceci trade or signing?

I’ve long expected the Senators to trade defenseman Cody Ceci.  He has been exposed while playing a role that he’s just not capable of handling on a night in, night out basis.  I think he can still be a serviceable fourth or fifth defender in the right situation but Ottawa is not the right situation for him.

The Senators are clearly in the middle of rebuilding.  Ceci is a year away from being eligible for unrestricted free agent eligibility.  The price tag is going to be approaching the $5MM mark, perhaps even a bit more on a long-term deal (something that might actually hurt his trade value).  This is a situation that logically screams trade from Ottawa’s perspective.

I get that Ceci is a bit of a different case.  He’s from the area and played his junior hockey with the 67s.  There’s a bit of extra attachment to him as a result.  However, they didn’t hesitate to move anyone else in this situation so they should be taking that approach with the 25-year-old here as well.

If I’m handicapping the situation, I’ll put it at 65-35 in favor of a trade this offseason.  If there isn’t a palatable swap available right now, a one-year deal may be the next option with an eye on trading Ceci as a rental player closer to the trade deadline in February.

Fortarnold: Does Chuck Fletcher actually know what he is doing? He has just made three questionable moves in a row at a time when he could turn the Flyers into a legit contender. Two defensemen trending in the wrong direction and paying a non-top tier center near top tier money. At least Hextall had a plan that you could see shaping to form, albeit at a snail’s pace, but a logical plan nonetheless.

While some of the moves have been a little surprising, I can see Fletcher’s logic.  Matt Niskanen gives them some mobility on the back end, not to mention a bit of a veteran presence which is something their group doesn’t have a lot of.  He’s not the number two/three player he once was but he can still contribute.  Having to retain part of Radko Gudas’ contract to facilitate the move was a bit surprising though.

I think the price for Justin Braun was a little steep but he’s a steady player in the right role.  At the very least, if he winds up being more of an extraneous part, there will be a trade market for him as the season progresses where they can get at least one of those picks back.

The contract for Kevin Hayes is a bit of an overpayment but most big contracts given to unrestricted free agents are.  He’s a capable second liner in the short-term and once Nolan Patrick develops and surpasses him on the depth chart, they’ll be in really good shape down the middle.

The plan appears to be that it’s time for them to get back into the playoffs as these are all win-now types of moves.  They’re certainly a better team but with the Rangers and Devils also making moves to improve, Philly is probably still going to be in a tough battle to make the postseason.

@JoeWalton9090: Do you see Dallas making a big splash this offseason?

They have enough cap room to sign/acquire one player of note.  That could very well just be re-signing Mats Zuccarello though.  However, there’s a higher price to pay to keep the winger around though as the conditional 2020 pick that they owe the Rangers would upgrade to a first rounder.  That could be too steep of a price for GM Jim Nill to pay.  He told NHL.com earlier today that Zuccarello intends to see what’s out there in free agency first before deciding whether or not he wants to re-sign.

I could see Anders Lee and Gustav Nyquist being players of interest if they don’t bring Zuccarello back.  Lee would give them another legitimate scoring threat while Nyquist would bolster their second line.  I suppose Lee could be called a splash if he signs there.

Having said that, I also wouldn’t be surprised if Dallas decides to shore up their depth and uses their money over a few players.  Instead of spending most of their remaining cap room (after Brett Ritchie and Jason Dickinson get new deals) on one player, I could see them signing a couple of cheaper wingers to try to bolster their scoring depth instead of being so top-heavy.  So while they have it in them to make a splash this summer, I think they’ll spread the wealth around instead.

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The 2018-19 NHL season is officially over, but that doesn’t mean the hockey world gets a moment of rest. The draft is just around the corner, with free agents allowed to start talking to new teams just after that. Teams have already started to reshape their rosters with trades, while others try to steady the ship with long-term extensions.

Erik Karlsson was set to become the top free agent on the market this summer but has re-signed in San Jose, leaving a hole at the top of the list of available defensemen. Do Tyler Myers and Jake Gardiner become the de facto top options, or will teams instead circle back to the trade market to try and find their blue line solutions? What about up front? Does Artemi Panarin have a market outside of a handful of teams? Will San Jose be able to afford Joe Pavelski now? All those questions and more are on the minds of hockey fans everywhere.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of our mailbag. You can submit your query by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure to get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through them all when the mailbag runs this weekend.

If you missed our last edition, it was split into two parts that you can read here and here. The first tackled topics like morality clauses in player contracts, the New Jersey Devils’ offseason plans, and the unfortunate reality of bad Edmonton Oilers contracts. Next, Brian took on questions regarding Chris Kreider’s future in New York, a potential Jacob Trouba trade, and gave his thoughts on the Phil Kessel situation.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include the Rangers, Detroit’s offseason, offer sheets, 2019-20 playoff teams, Phil Kessel’s future in Pittsburgh, what’s next for Buffalo, a possible P.K. Subban trade, and what Vegas needs to go this summer.

Dylan: What moves do the Rangers make *if* they attempt to contend and if not, what do they do over the course of the offseason?

acarneglia: Do one of Ryan Callahan or J.T. Miller return to NYR as part of a salary dump? Could both?

WalterNYR: Will the Rangers trade Chris Kreider before the start of the season and if so what sort of return could they expect.

CoachWall: Despite a treasure trove of talent at defense, do the Rangers make a play for Jacob Trouba?

There were quite a few questions about the Rangers so let’s group them all together to start.

If they’re looking to contend, they’ll be shopping at the top end of the UFA market.  Erik Karlsson and Artemi Panarin are among the players that have been speculatively linked to them already.  I could see them looking to bring back Mats Zuccarello in that situation as well.  I think making the jump would be premature at this point as players like Lias Andersson, Filip Chytil, Brett Howden, and Anthony DeAngelo are all still part of the supporting cast right now.  The Rangers will truly be ready to contend when those players are all in impact roles and for that to happen, they need more ice time.  Being restrained in free agency and letting the youngsters play more in 2019-20 would go a long way towards making that happen.

In terms of what else they made do if they opt to not try to contend next season, I can see GM Jeff Gorton trying to make a trade with Kevin Shattenkirk.  It’s not working out for him in New York and a change of scenery is probably ideal for both sides.  His value is low but teams looking for firepower from the back end should be kicking the tires at least.  They’d probably be among the teams open to taking on a pricey contract from another team to add some other assets as well.

Callahan’s days in Tampa Bay appear to be numbered.  Yes, he has some trade protection but at this point, he knows the writing’s on the wall.  I suspect he’d be open to a return to New York where he’d have a shot to play a bit more while returning to where he had a fair bit of success early on.

I wouldn’t classify Miller in the same group as Callahan, however.  He had a bit of a down year in 2018-19 but he’s still a capable second liner at the very least.  While it’s certainly possible that Tampa Bay could look to move him to free up cap space, they’ll be looking for good, young players in return.  It’s not a situation where they’ll be needing to attach assets to move him, something that is likely to be the case with Callahan.  I’m not sure the Rangers are at a point where they’re going to move out young players which would make a reunion with him unlikely.

As for Kreider, it all depends on whether or not he signs a contract extension this summer.  That’s going to be one of Gorton’s top priorities and if they get something done quickly, he’ll clearly stay.  If they don’t agree right away though, it’s certainly possible that he gets moved before the season but I think that would only happen if a team struck out in free agency and knew they needed to make a splash.  Otherwise, they could very well take this into the season and if an extension still isn’t agreed upon, then they’ll look to move him as a midseason rental.  Power forwards are in high demand on the trade market and given the physicality of this postseason, he would certainly be a popular target for playoff-bound teams closer to the trade deadline.

When it comes to Trouba, a lot depends on his willingness to sign a long-term contract.  If he’s amenable to doing so with the Rangers, then yes, going after him would make some sense.  However, if he just wants to go to arbitration, get his one-year award, and hit the open market in 2020, then a Trouba trade for the Rangers wouldn’t make much sense at all considering that they’d be parting with young, affordable assets for a rental in a season where there’s no guarantee that they’d be in playoff contention.

tigers22: Mantha for Trouba and wings select Byram with the 6th overall pick? Any chance Wings can make that happen and will they buy out Abdelkader?

If Trouba is open to signing long-term, then it’s something that’s worthy of some consideration.  There’s no denying that Detroit desperately needs help on the back end and Mantha’s cheaper salary for the upcoming season would certainly help Winnipeg’s cap situation in the short term.  But if Trouba wants to go to the open market, then it wouldn’t make any sense for Detroit to entertain a trade like that.  If they’re parting with Mantha for a defender, it needs to be someone who can be an impact player for them on a long-term basis, much like they expect from Mantha now.

As for the second part of that, it’s quite unlikely that Bowen Byram slips to the number six spot.  He’s the consensus top defender in the draft and it’s widely expected that he’ll go either third or fourth.  If Detroit wants him, they’ll have to move up.

I know Justin Abdelkader had a rough year and has a bad contract but Detroit’s not in a spot where they can really benefit from the roughly $3MM they’d save in 2019-20 from buying him out.  That’s not the difference between them making or missing the playoffs so why not hold onto him?  If he rebounds, then perhaps he has a bit of trade value.  If not, the buyout cost isn’t quite so drastic a year from now.  Either way, it’s more prudent to hold onto Abdelkader despite his struggles.

pitmanrich: Do you see any changes regarding offer sheets for RFA’s? At the moment, the compensation is so high it’s almost pointless as nobody will give up so many draft picks in one go.

In the short term, no changes are coming.  This is a CBA issue and we’re still at least a season away from this current one expiring with the NHL having until September 1st to opt out and September 19th for the NHLPA.  If they did so, it would expire in 2020 and if not, in 2022.

I do think there will be changes down the road with regards to the linking.  It’s currently tied to the average salary; whatever the increase in percentage to the average salary, the same percentage increase is applied to the offer sheet threshold.  As revenues continue to increase, the thresholds are going to go up pretty quickly.  They could tweak the wording to make it that the offer sheet rates only go up by, say, half of the percentage of the increase.  That would at least slow the rapid increase; the price point for the four first-round pick compensation has gone up by more than $2MM in this CBA already.

I’m sure the NHLPA would like to lower the compensation point at the top end and drop it from four first rounders to three.  However, that would probably require a considerable concession to do so and given how few players would actually be affected by that, it’s not something I’d expect.  I think a change will come in the next CBA but it will probably more of a negligible one and not something that really affects restricted free agency all that much.

pawtucket: Which playoff teams do not make the playoffs next year? Which team that didn’t make the playoffs does?

This is always tricky to predict at the best of times, let alone before seeing what actually transpires over the course of the offseason where rosters will change considerably.  Nonetheless, let’s give this a go.

In the East, the easier pick to slide out right now would be Columbus due to the uncertainty surrounding their unrestricted free agents.  If they all leave, they’ll probably be staring down a short-term rebuild.  I’m also skeptical that the Islanders will get the same level of goaltending they did in 2018-19 so them taking a small step back is a possibility as well.  Same with Carolina depending on what their goalie situation looks like next season with both netminders slated to hit free agency next month.  I expect the Flyers will add some pieces and get back into the postseason and if Florida does wind up being as active as it seems they will be, they’ll probably get in as well.  Montreal could also get into the mix if they can another impact piece.

I don’t think there will be as much movement in the West.  If Arizona can stay healthy, they could very well get back in the mix.  If Chicago makes a big splash, they could be heard from as well but it’s far from a guarantee.  I have a hard time pinpointing who will come out though.  San Jose could take a step back depending on what happens in free agency but they should still be a playoff contender.  Colorado is a team that’s slowly on the rise so it might not be them and I expect Dallas to make a splash in the coming weeks.  I wouldn’t expect much movement in the standings in the West; the East is where there’s potential for some new teams getting into the playoff picture.

Paul Heyman: Does Phil Kessel stay in Pittsburgh due to his NMC or does Pittsburgh trade him to one of the eight teams on his trade list?

I know the Penguins have put it out there that they’re more than content to keep Kessel around if they can’t find a trade to their liking.  But let’s face it, they have to put that out there no matter what.

The time has come for a change of scenery.  He doesn’t appear to be overly enthralled with things based on the speculation about his frustration with his role and linemates.  The coaching staff clearly isn’t too pleased with his inconsistency.  Yes, he’s a quality scorer, but sometimes the time is simply right for a move.  This is one of those situations.

Of the eight teams on Kessel’s list, I don’t think there are many who will be overly interested which could complicate things.  If the winger wants to move, he may have to expand (or revise) his list to create some other opportunities.  If you look at the production he can provide and his cap hit ($6.8MM for three more years with Toronto covering the rest), that’s a better contract than you can get signing someone on the open market.  I think we’ll see a trade involving Kessel come to fruition over the next few weeks.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include expiring draft rights, contract language, the Devils, Erik Karlsson, bad contracts in Edmonton, Detroit’s pursuit of free agents, the upcoming offseason for the Kings, and a top St. Louis prospect.  As has been the case recently, the mailbag has been split into two parts so if your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it next weekend.

met man: Just read an article on Trade Rumors referencing 2019 Expiring Draft Rights. Who are the players that would draw the most interest?

Given that we’re mere hours from the 4:00 PM CST deadline for these players to sign, let’s tackle this one first.  This isn’t a particularly good class of prospects and doesn’t have a standout player like last year’s group did with Adam Mascherin.

With Zachary Lauzon’s concussion situation likely preventing him from getting signed, the highest remaining unsigned player from that list is Scott Walford.  I’m a little surprised that the Canadiens haven’t signed him.  The defenseman had a breakout year offensively on a team that had some difficulty scoring and Montreal’s lack of quality depth on the left side of their back end made a deal seem rather likely on the surface.

Coyotes defender Noel Hoefenmayer had a big season with OHL Ottawa and had a very strong postseason as well.  He’s someone that I figured would have signed or been dealt by now.  Pavel Koltygin (a Nashville center) had a strong postseason that could get him on the radar.  Liam Hawel (Dallas) is a big center that showed some offensive touch this past season and size down the middle is something that many teams will still take a chance on.

This all said, there probably isn’t going to much trade activity in the hours leading up to the deadline.  Most teams know by now which players aren’t getting signed and the fact that a conditional late-round pick hasn’t been dealt for some of these players yet is a sign that they have questions about these players as well.  A couple could get redrafted but the likeliest outcome is that the group above are getting tryout deals for rookie camps after the draft comes and goes.

Mark Black: Given the recent Kuznetsov situation, what is the NHL and NHLPA’s stance on morality clauses in contracts? Thinking back to the disputed termination of Mike Richards’ contract and even further back in baseball with Denny Neagle and the Rockies, do teams carry clauses that allow them to terminate contracts for conduct unbecoming? Highly unlikely that this happens with Kuznetsov, regardless if it’s present in his contract or not, but just curious about those clauses – whether they are boilerplate, incredibly secretive, or only in the contracts of some players.

There is a boilerplate morality clause in a Standard Player Contract.  From Exhibit 1 of the CBA:

2. The Player agrees to give his services and to play hockey in all NHL Games, All Star Games, International Hockey Games and Exhibition Games to the best of his ability under the direction and control of the Club in accordance with the provisions hereof.

The Player further agrees,

(e) to conduct himself on and off the rink according to the highest standards of honesty, morality, fair play and sportsmanship, and to refrain from conduct detrimental to the best interest of the Club, the League or professional hockey generally.

This clause is word for word from the 1997 CBA so it’s not something they’ve looked at for a long time.

The NHL has issued a statement clearing Kuznetsov of any wrongdoing so there won’t be any attempt to terminate his contract or anything like that.  The NHLPA would be highly unlikely to agree to reword that clause to include a provision for contract termination for a particularly egregious breach nor would they encourage their players to agree to any sort of addendum therein.  That’s something that would inevitably go through an arbitrator on a case-by-case basis which is probably the preference of the league and the NHLPA at this point.

mikenowo1: Thoughts on what the Devils will do this offseason? Any offer sheets for cap-stripped teams like Toronto and Winnipeg?

jamincito: Do the Devils get someone significant in free agency and who?

Let’s tackle the two New Jersey questions together.  They have had a tough time attracting free agents in recent years and after the season they just had, it’s hard to see that changing, at least at the top end of the UFA pool.  Adding secondary scoring is something they should be able to do via the open market at least and with the extra cap space they have compared to a lot of teams, the Devils should be able to pay the extra money to make their offer stand out amongst the rest.

I expect them to be more active on the trade route though.  If there’s a big-name player made available, they’ll probably be kicking the tires.  I’m sure they’ve inquired about Phil Kessel at the very least.  Adding another premier talent would certainly aid their efforts to re-sign Taylor Hall to a long-term extension this summer or at the very least give them another piece to build around if they ultimately have to move the winger out.

Offer sheets sound wonderful in theory but they rarely come to fruition.  (That said, if there was ever a year for one, this would be it, albeit not with the players at the top of the class.)   New Jersey is in good shape to take advantage of cap-strapped teams but that will probably be in the form of adding assets to take on a bad contract.  The contenders that are against the Upper Limit won’t want to give up top-end talent to get out from under the cap.  Instead, they’ll be trying to peddle secondary pieces so that’s where the expectations should be placed.

Connorsoxfan: Is Erik Karlsson to Tampa considered a serious possibility, or just fun to speculate about because of their ability to manage the cap in order to make things happen?

It all comes down to his friendship with Lightning blueliner Victor Hedman.  If Karlsson really wants to play there and is willing to take less than market value to do so, then it could happen.

While Ryan Callahan is the near-surefire bet to be on the move at some point to create cap space for Brayden Point’s next contract, there are other players in that price range that could also be traded if need be.  J.T. Miller ($5.25MM through 2022-23), Tyler Johnson ($5MM through 2023-24), and Alex Killorn ($4.45MM through 2022-23) are all capable secondary scorers that would carry some reasonable trade value.  Move out a couple of those for players still on their entry-level deals and all of a sudden, they’ll have enough money freed up where it could become a possibility.

I certainly wouldn’t put Tampa Bay as the prohibitive favorite to land him though.  Even if they did free up the extra money to sign him, they’d be in a situation where a significant portion of their team would have to be on contracts below $1MM to fill out their roster.  As Chicago has shown in recent years, it can be done but it’s extremely difficult to make it work and it would greatly restrict their ability to make in-season moves.

pitmanrich: How big a risk is signing Karlsson to a 7-year deal at probably 10-11mil a year? Yes, he’s an elite player but injuries are starting to occur more frequently. Also, where does he end up? Rumours of the Rangers interest but they already got plenty d-men on big contracts even if their play is not earning them.

I think there’s pretty much always a risk with a max-term contract.  Way more of those contracts don’t work out well with unrestricted free agents than those that do.  In Karlsson’s case, the risk is even higher considering the recurring injuries but there will still be teams lining up to sign him on July 1st if he makes it to the open market.  Blueliners with his skillset rarely become available and it’s even rarer that the acquisition cost would ‘only’ be dollars and not other players, prospects, and draft picks.  Even though whoever signs him could believe that the final few years could be rough, if they think he’s a piece to help them win now, they’ll do it and not think twice about it.

In previous mailbags, I’ve stated my belief that New York would be better off not jumping back into the upper echelon of free agency just yet and going one more with the youngsters getting prime ice time.  But most of that youth is up front, not on the back end.  Yes, the Rangers have some pricey underperformers in Marc Staal, Kevin Shattenkirk, and Brendan Smith.  Fortunately, they each only have two years left and because of all of the entry-level contracts they have on the books, they could afford to add Karlsson and those others on the books and still be comfortably under the cap.

Zack35: Can Milan Lucic, Andrej Sekera or Kris Russell’s contracts be dealt?

Any contract can be dealt…as long as the team is willing to take on a comparably bad (or worse) contract in return.  That’s the situation Oilers GM Ken Holland faces with Lucic.  About the only way that he gets dealt is if they take a really bad contract in return.  I honestly think he’s capable of rebounding somewhat from a rough 2018-19 campaign but other teams won’t be giving up value merely based on hope.

Sekera’s an interesting case.  Because of his injuries the last two seasons, there are legitimate concerns that he can once again become the consistent top-four defender that he has been in the past.  But he looked pretty good at the World Championships last month so Edmonton has to hold out some hope that he can still get back to that level.  They wouldn’t get great value for him so I think their inclination will be to keep Sekera with the belief that he’ll get closer to the level he played at when he first joined the team.

Russell continues to be one of the more polarizing blueliners in the league.  He’s a great shot-blocker but teams get a lot of shots towards the goal when he’s on the ice.  But he can play on both sides and only has two years left at $4MM per year.  That’s a bit expensive for someone that’s ideally on a third pairing but it’s not too much of a premium to scare everyone off.  If they want to move him, I think they can get some decent value in return, perhaps a middle-six winger to help them up front.

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The Stanley Cup Final is starting and the St. Louis Blues are still alive. The organization that has never won a Cup in their history will get a chance to raise hockey’s legendary chalice, but have to go through the team that beat them the last time they had this opportunity. The Boston Bruins put St. Louis out in 1970, starting a 49-year streak of failure to reach the final round.

Even as hockey fans focus on the final few games of the season, work is being done in front offices across the league to prepare for the upcoming entry draft. Prospects are gathering this week in Buffalo for the draft combine, while management is prepping on all the free agents that will be available this summer. The interview period begins in just a few weeks, and top names like Erik Karlsson, Artemi Panarin and Matt Duchene remain unsigned.

With that in mind it’s time to run another edition of our mailbag. You can submit your query by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure to get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through them all when the mailbag runs this weekend.

If you missed out on the last mailbag, it was split into two parts that you can read here and here. The first tackled topics like Karlsson’s pending free agency, playoff formats and the Nashville Predators, while the second looked at the future for the New York Rangers, the goaltending market, and the top defensive prospects in the game.