Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Blackhawks’ struggles, Boston’s trade chips, what the Senators should do in the coming months, what Carolina should be targeting in a trade, Marc-Andre Fleury’s workload, trade speculation involving Alex Pietrangelo and Vladimir Tarasenko, the World Juniors, and Philadelphia’s plans under Chuck Fletcher.
shelteredsoxfan: How much worse do you think it gets for the Blackhawks before it gets better?
@Adam407: It seems like a given that the Blackhawks will be sellers at the deadline and maybe before that. Any idea who they might be able to move and what they could expect to receive in return?
I have a hunch that Stan Bowman hasn’t given up on this core just yet. They’re going to have some money to spend and there has already been one report (from John Dietz of the Daily Herald) that they’re planning to target winger Artemi Panarin this summer and march themselves back into cap purgatory in the process. If they do indeed do that, they won’t be anywhere near as bad next season so the short-term pain won’t be prolonged too badly. Even if they do that though, their days of contention appear to be numbered but a big splash like that could get them a lot closer to the playoff picture.
With that in mind, shipping out expiring contracts will be the name of the game once again. Marcus Kruger could help someone as a fourth line center and could fetch a mid-round pick. If someone wants Brandon Davidson for defensive depth, he could probably yield a late pick. Depending on how Cam Ward plays these next few months, perhaps a contender may want him for injury insurance.
Beyond that, moving out Artem Anisimov and the final two years of his deal will probably be at the top of the priority list. Doing so would ideally free up some extra room to take that run at Panarin (or another impact player) and emphasize their commitment to Dylan Strome as their number two center. His value isn’t what it once was but Anisimov is still a capable middle-six player and should be worth a roster player (to help offset some money) plus a good prospect or a second-rounder.
case7187: Why are the B’s finding it so hard to trade for help? They have a lot of good quality youngsters but there seems to be nothing out there.
I don’t think it’s a case of there being nothing out there but rather GM Don Sweeney (rightfully) being very careful. There’s a reason young roster players aren’t dealt very often. They’re cap-efficient and there are often differences as to what the trading and acquiring team see his upside as. Unless the internal valuation on both sides line up, a move isn’t going to happen.
Let’s take Danton Heinen for an example. What is his level of upside? Is he a legitimate top-six forward like the one that put up 38 points in the first 48 games last season? Or is he the player that has notched just 18 points in 67 games (playoffs included) since then? The Bruins are going to try to sell him as the former but teams are understandably going to be hesitant given his struggles since February. I doubt there are other teams that value him as highly as Boston goes which makes a trade trickier.
The questions are similar with the likes of Anders Bjork, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, and Ryan Donato. All three have shown legitimate NHL upside. They’ve also shown that there is a chance that they don’t live up to that upside as their play has been inconsistent so far. Sweeney’s valuation of his own players is probably higher than those of his managerial counterparts so until something changes (one of those players steps up, the team lowers their expectations on one of them, or injuries force someone’s hand), it’s probably going to take some time for a trade to get done.
ThePriceWasRight: Just when you think things can’t get worse for the Sens, Duchene gets hurt.
Play GM, what should this team be doing in the next 2-3 months? Plenty of moveable pieces, no clear indication or direction what they plan to do (though they’ve clearly sold low on every player they’ve traded since Brassard).
Sell, sell, sell. Ottawa has done well to hang around the postseason hunt so far but this is not a team that’s going to be a contender. Their defense corps is a patchwork group at best and I have doubts that they’ll be able to get Matt Duchene and Mark Stone locked up long-term. They might get one but it’s hard to see them doing what it takes (which would likely include significant signing bonuses) to get both signed.
As you note, they have quite a few players that could be dealt with some value – on top of those two, Ryan Dzingel is an expiring deal and it will be easier to move Zack Smith closer to the deadline than it was when they waived him in the preseason. If Jean-Gabriel Pageau plays well upon returning, there will be a market for him as well.
The Sens have an opportunity to really restock their prospect and pick cupboards which is even more important considering they don’t have their first-round pick this season. Even if they hang around a Wild Card spot for a couple more months, the better move long-term is to sell.
acarneglia: With the Hurricanes looking for a top 6 forward, where do they look? Does a guy like Kevin Hayes or Mats Zuccarello make sense from the division rival Rangers? Do they go for an impending FA like Matt Duchene? Do they target a Kings player?
While Hayes and Zuccarello make some sense and would certainly help, I’m not sure a pending unrestricted free agent is the way to go. I think Carolina is more than one notable forward away from really getting back into the playoff picture and the odds of them getting multiple impact players is probably low. I think their goal should be to add a younger (or at least someone under team control for a couple of years) option that can be part of the core alongside the likes of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas, and others over picking up some short-term help in a rental.
In a previous mailbag, I suggested Tyler Toffoli as a possible fallback option for Carolina if they weren’t able to land William Nylander. He’s a little older (26) than I think they’d like but he’s signed through next season and while he’s struggling this year, he does have a track record of production. Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic brought up Kasperi Kapanen as someone they’ve discussed internally and that’s more of the type of forward I think they should be trying to get even though the acquisition cost will certainly be higher.
vegasloveforthebills: Fleury is currently on pace for 70 games played. Do you think it’s at least partly because Vegas has lost confidence in Subban, and if so, are they in on a Howard or Anderson?
I don’t think it’s partly because of that reason – I believe it’s primarily because of that reason. Asking any goalie to play upwards of 70 games is a tough ask nowadays. Asking a 34-year-old with a substantial injury history isn’t something a team does willingly. They’re doing it because they feel they have to.
With that in mind, it wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprising to see them try to upgrade on Malcolm Subban between now and the trade deadline. (I also thought they would have done that last year, for what it’s worth.) I don’t think Craig Anderson is an ideal target since he has another year left on his deal at $4.75MM and that’s too much for a backup. Howard could be a target but the asking price appears to be quite high and there is believed to be mutual interest in an extension.
A goalie that I could see being on their radar is Carolina’s Petr Mrazek. I can’t see them willingly carrying all three goalies the rest of the way and he’s on a manageable $1.5MM deal this season. He’d represent an upgrade on Subban and if he fared well, he’s young enough (he’ll turn 27 just before the deadline) that he could be a realistic option for them next year and beyond as well.