PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include reuniting the Hughes brothers, Henrik Lundqvist, Max Domi, Cole Caufield’s production, the Kings’ offseason, plus playoff and crystal ball predictions.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Do you see the Hughes brothers all playing together on the same team someday? What would it take for that to happen via trade?

I don’t see it happening and it comes down to money.  Quinn Hughes is going to get very expensive very quickly.  If Jack Hughes pans out as expected, he’ll be expensive a year from now.  By the time Quinn becomes a free agent, Luke will be on his second contract which, you guessed it, could get expensive quickly if he puts up the points many think he will.  Dougie Hamilton might still be on the books at $9MM by then (depending on how long Quinn’s second contract is – is it a bridge or does it walk him to UFA right away?).

That likely takes the easiest scenario off the table.  Could Vancouver one day trade Quinn?  Sure, anything is possible.  But does New Jersey need a third puck-moving defender with Hamilton and Luke and again, can they even afford that on the cap?  Probably not and even if they could afford it, would they be willing to pay an extremely high price tag (multiple top picks and players) to make a strong spot (puck-moving defender) even stronger?  That’s probably not the best use of organizational resources even if it makes for a nice story.

I don’t see New Jersey moving Jack and Luke to Vancouver, not with the cap challenges the Canucks are heading towards.  And all three winding up on an entirely different team is even harder to see happening.

Could it happen later in their careers when they’re not all on big-money contracts?  That’s certainly a little more realistic but even then, the safe bet is to say it doesn’t happen outside of them playing some summer scrimmages in the offseason on the same team.

Eaton Harass: Is Lundqvist the best goalie to never win a Cup?

He’s definitely in that mix.  He’s a sure-fire Hall of Famer but there are others that are in the Hall of Fame that have to be considered.

Tony Esposito played in a much different era so it’s hard to directly compare the numbers but he played on some very good Chicago teams that just couldn’t get over the hump, much like the Rangers.  Roberto Luongo didn’t always have good teams in front of him but was one of the premier goalies of his generation, the same as Lundqvist.  I’d put Lundqvist ahead of Curtis Joseph and Ron Hextall who should also get at least some consideration here as well.

I’d say Esposito and his slightly more decorated track record would get the edge here but it’s not really a competition to be the best of that group. Lundqvist was a high-end goalie that never won a Stanley Cup that will one day be in the Hall of Fame.  I know lots of people like ‘Best of’ lists but I don’t think being ranked first, second, third, or tenth matters all that much.

@MarkPaleo: Is Max Domi a possible solution for the Bruins’ 2nd line center question?

In the short term, no.  He’s going to miss at least the first six weeks or so of the season if not longer after undergoing shoulder surgery in early June.  There’s also the $5.3MM AAV which is one they can’t really afford.  Yes, he’s eligible for LTIR but there would be a cap crunch as soon as he was able to return.

But at the trade deadline?  That could be a really interesting option.  At that point, Domi will have come back and shown if he’s capable of still being a top-six piece (particularly at center, after spending time the last two years on the wing) and the money will be easier to fit in with how much time will have passed and Columbus likely being more willing to retain at that time.  Boston has looked at reclamation rental projects in the past at the deadline in the hopes that a change of scenery gets them going and Domi would certainly fit that particular strategy.  If they haven’t filled that spot by the deadline, he’d make some sense for them.

wu tang killa beez: What do you expect from Cole Caufield in Montreal in a full NHL season? Can he score 30 goals?

In a single season at some point in his career?  30 is more than doable; it’d be a bit surprising if he didn’t get to that milestone a few times at least.  He’s undersized but it’s hard to teach the scoring touch that Caufield has and he certainly didn’t look out of place during Montreal’s playoff run.

Now, if you’re asking about next season, that’s a little less certain.  Don’t get me wrong, he could get 30 in 2021-22 but I don’t know if I’d necessarily predict that.  The Canadiens are a score-by-committee type of team and outside of a hot start last year, they don’t typically score a lot.  They have some decent weapons on the wing with him, Brendan Gallagher, Mike Hoffman, and Tyler Toffoli and that might result in some flatter scoring numbers.  All of those players could (and if healthy, probably should) pass the 20-goal mark but because of that depth, none might reach 30 next season.

Winter in Colorado: Do you think the veteran additions and developing prospects will be enough for the LA Kings to make the playoffs this season? Is 3rd in the relatively weak Pacific Division possible?

bigalval: Can the Kings make the playoffs this year the team looks a lot better and the kids are coming up.

There’s no denying that the Kings are much-improved after the additions of Phillip Danault, Viktor Arvidsson, and Alexander Edler.  The depth is a lot better and some players who were in spots higher than they should have been will be pushed back down which, from a development standpoint, isn’t a bad thing either.  There’s also no denying that the Pacific Division isn’t all that strong and it is definitely possible that these additions plus some internal improvement from their youngsters could be enough to get them over the hump and into that third seed.  I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened.

That said, I’m not going to predict it’ll happen.  Last month, I made my very quick predictions for the playoffs and the Kings weren’t in that group.  I think Edler will help their back end but it’s still not a particularly strong group.  I don’t have a lot of confidence that Calvin Petersen and Jonathan Quick can be a playoff-caliber goaltending tandem, especially with that back end not being an impactful one.  They’ll score more but after being 27th in that department last season, that’s a low bar to clear.  I could see the Kings being fourth or fifth in the division but if five teams from the Central make it (a definite possibility), that would have Los Angeles just on the outside looking in.  Bright days are soon coming but I think that jump ahead is another year away.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Buffalo’s rebuilding process, the pursuit of Jack Eichel from the Rangers and if Detroit should be in the mix, a proposed offer sheet, Nashville’s underwhelming summer, under the radar breakout candidates, moves that general managers may one day wish they had a mulligan on, and where Ryan Dzingel landed in free agency.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

LarryJ4: What Adams has done with the Sabres roster seems to be geared towards clearing out the losing mentality of certain players would you agree? Complete reset so to speak and hear up a rebuild what he feels is the right way. The previous 2 GMs failed to bring in players that their character properly fit the “retool/rebuild” mode of a team. Granted the last one was brought in by Adams, being Taylor Hall, but that seems like a knee jerk reaction by Adams facing pressure from Ownership that appears clueless.

Second question is do you think Adams has the invisible “handcuffs” off of him this go around?

I don’t know if I’d go as far as saying the rebuild is built on trying to clear out anyone with a losing mentality.  Everyone on the Sabres for an extended period has been through plenty of losing so it could be suggested they all have had that particular mentality ingrained in them over the years.

This feels like a situation where they finally realized that they’re not just a player or two away from becoming contenders and trying to add that piece each year becomes futile after a while.  Their captain isn’t coming back anytime soon, if at all, further pushing them in that direction.  In that case, selling off the players who were nearing unrestricted free agency was the logical next step.  Rasmus Ristolainen and Sam Reinhart probably weren’t signing new long-term deals with Buffalo so they pretty much had to go.

As for the handcuffs, that’s always difficult to speculate on as owners have differing levels of involvement throughout the league but this is the type of rebuild that requires ownership signing off on.  The fact that GM Keyvn Adams has made the moves he has made suggests he has received the commitment and green light to see this process through.

CoachWall: Now that we know Eichel is going to miss the first month or so, have the Rangers pivoted to re-upping Z-dad?

In the context of this question, I’m going to say no.  Not having Eichel available for the start of next season shouldn’t drastically affect how much they want him.  He has five years left on his deal so missing 15-20 games at the start of that span shouldn’t discourage them from going after him when the potential for four-plus years of a number one center is still there.

At this point, GM Chris Drury should be working both fronts.  He can keep inquiring on Eichel to see if the price will eventually change while at the same time doing his due diligence in terms of what it will cost to keep Zibanejad around; Eichel not being ready to start the year shouldn’t push Drury down a path he should already be on.  Both aren’t going to be doable but it doesn’t mean discussions can’t be done for both options at the same time so that the Rangers can make one of the two moves when the time is right.

gowings2008: The Red Wings lack a true number one center, is it possible they are secretly in on Eichel? He fits their core group in terms of age and the Wings have the cap space to fit him in. I know the Red Wings have rarely leaked any rumors under Yzerman, but this is an opportunity that rarely presents itself and they have the pieces, I would think, to make it work.

You make a very reasonable case for Detroit to go down this path and I agree that they probably have the assets to make a trade work.  But the timing doesn’t feel right to me.

GM Steve Yzerman’s offseason was all about adding bridge pieces.  Nick Leddy is someone that could be flipped later in the year, Alex Nedeljkovic only received a two-year deal that walks him to UFA eligibility (and there are questions about whether or not he can be an NHL starter) while up front, Pius Suter was the only addition of note, also receiving a two-year deal that takes him back to UFA status.  To drastically shift towards trying to win now runs counterintuitive to what they’ve done the last few months.

I’ll put it this way.  If Detroit was in on Eichel, making a move before the draft would have been the right time to do it.  Then they’d have been more aggressive in terms of trying to add more proven win-now talent via trade and free agency and really emerge from the rebuild.  But if Yzerman still thinks they’re a couple of years away from doing that (and his activity the last two months suggests that’s the case), then the high cost to acquire Eichel would be a little harder to justify since he alone wouldn’t make them a playoff team and there aren’t any notable free agents left that they could try to add after landing Eichel.

I actually quite like the idea of Eichel in Detroit but I think the right time for that was two months ago, not now.

Robert Evans Jr.: Why doesn’t Buffalo just offer sheet Sorokin for $4.11 million a year for five or six years to be the goalie of the future??

I’m glad you mentioned five or six years in the question as it gives me a chance to highlight a rule that often gets missed.  For offer sheet purposes, the maximum divisor is five, even if the term of the contract is longer.  Accordingly, while a five-year offer sheet at $4.11MM per year would yield a second-rounder, the six-year term would actually push him up a tier to the first-rounder plus a third-rounder.  The total compensation for that offer would be $24.66MM with the maximum divisor at five.  That means for offer sheet compensation purposes, his AAV would be $4.93MM (even though the AAV of the contract is still $4.11MM).

With that said, there are a couple of reasons that Ilya Sorokin won’t sign that contract.  First, he would actually have to want to sign that deal to go to Buffalo and with the direction the Sabres are going, they’re not exactly going to be a desirable destination for a little bit.  The second is that he probably has already agreed to terms with the Islanders as GM Lou Lamoriello has a whole bunch of deals done that haven’t been announced yet.  The fact that Sorokin didn’t file for arbitration feels like a strong sign that his contract is among those in place that we’ll officially find out about at some point in the next six weeks.

Gbear: Rhetorical question, but how does subtracting Viktor Arvidsson and Calle Jarnkrok and adding Philip Tomasino and Cody Glass to an already paltry offense in Nashville improve their goal-scoring output?

Rhetorical or not, I’ll answer anyway.  It really doesn’t help them although with the way David Poile has built his team this summer, it sure looks like they’re a team that’s looking at some short-term pain (and salary savings) for long-term gain.

If they kept their core intact and still brought Glass in, we’d be talking about him playing in the minors and waiting for a recall.  By moving Arvidsson to the Kings and losing Jarnkrok to Seattle, now there’s a defined spot on the third line for Glass for him to get a more consistent chance that he had with Vegas last season.  Considering Nashville’s long-standing need for help down the middle, it only made sense to add someone like Glass if they had a chance to play him.

Tomasino looks like he’s ready to contribute based on his play as an underager in the AHL last year.  I’m not as bullish on them seemingly keeping a roster spot for him as a 20-year-old but it certainly feels like they want to get his NHL experience started quickly in the hopes of expediting his development.

Are the Predators better now than they were last season?  Certainly not.  So if they’re going to be rebuilding, they might as well get the youngsters some playing time in a role where they’ll have a chance to succeed right away.  If the development of Glass and Tomasino (among other youngsters) next season is bolstered, the long-term improvement should outweigh the short-term drop in production that is certainly coming.

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With August coming to a close and the NHL offseason moving like a slug on a hot sidewalk, fans (and writers) are looking forward to next month and the start of training camp. The preseason kicks off in a month and like usual there are still some big restricted free agents without contracts. As camp approaches, the heat will be put on both sides to get deals done, which could lead to some very interesting situations.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. In the first half, Brian examined the situations regarding Vladimir Tarasenko and Jack Eichel, while also giving his thoughts on the New York Islanders’ tight-lipped strategy. In the second, he discussed the New Jersey Devils’ new acquisitions, the Seattle Kraken roster, and David Krejci’s departure from the Boston Bruins.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and answer as many questions as possible.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag including New Jersey’s summer movement, Seattle’s possible opening night lineup, Boston’s center situation, picking playoff teams, Evgeny Kuznetsov’s future with Washington, player predictions, and inserting the most surprising pick from the 2020 draft into the 2021 draft.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Did the Devils do enough this offseason to actually end this rebuild? Do you see them doing anything else this offseason?

Just so it’s mentioned, not long after this question was asked, New Jersey went out and added Tomas Tatar which is another notable move.  More on him shortly.

What’s the definition of ending the rebuild?  If it’s making the playoffs, the answer is no.  For me, this is the summer that starts the end of the rebuild.  Dougie Hamilton instantly gives them the high-impact defenseman they’ve lacked for a long time.  That’s a long-term building block in place that isn’t under the age of 23.  Ryan Graves is an effective blueliner that’s young enough to be part of the long-term core if things go well.  Tatar is a great fit for them; he’ll provide some veteran insulation for one of Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier and should raise the floor of that line.  His defensive skills are also understated given how effective of a two-way line he was on with Montreal.  He isn’t a long-term piece but he should elevate one of those two pivots which helps to end the rebuild.  Jonathan Bernier is a good fit to be the veteran mentor for Mackenzie Blackwood in the role that Corey Crawford was supposed to fill last year.  They won’t have elite goaltending but there shouldn’t be many off nights either.

I think they’re pretty much done this summer.  They still want to keep plenty of lineup spots for their younger players to give them more time to develop, another sign that the rebuild isn’t done just yet.  Once they can determine which ones will be part of the core and which are expendable, then it’ll be time for another round of veteran additions to further raise the floor.  That will be the signal that the intention will shift from the future to the present.

YzerPlan19: What does the Kraken opening night roster look like? Do they make any surprise additions before then? Who is the next William Karlsson breakout candidate?

I wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t another move or two by the start of the season but I’m thinking more in terms of moving a surplus defenseman and maybe taking on an expensive expiring contract but it wouldn’t be a player that would have a big role.  So with the roster as it currently stands, my attempt at an opening night lineup:

Jaden Schwartz – Alexander Wennberg – Jordan Eberle
Marcus Johansson – Jared McCann – Joonas Donskoi
Brandon Tanev – Calle Jarnkrok – Mason Appleton
Colin Blackwell – Morgan Geekie – Nathan Bastian

Yanni Gourde won’t be ready to start the year after recent shoulder surgery which creates a hole down the middle.  It has been a few years since Jarnkrok played regularly down the middle but I like him on that ‘checking’ line more than someone like Johansson (who struggles at center) or Geekie (not yet ready for that role).  I also expect Matthew Beniers to play in college next season.

Mark Giordano – Adam Larsson
Vince Dunn – Jamie Oleksiak
Carson Soucy – Jeremy Lauzon

Philipp Grubauer
Chris Driedger

In terms of a breakout candidate, McCann feels like the only one that fits.  He has shown flashes of living up to his offensive upside in the past but a bigger and more consistent role could be the key to him showing that skill level more consistently.

sovietcanuckistanian: Not 100% surprised by Krejci uprooting for his home, but it does sting. My query is; as much as I’d love to see an internal candidate pick up his mantle or one of the signings made by the front office pan out in that regard… I’m not going to hold my breath. What/who are realistic options to now plug a rather large hole in the lineup? In the event of a trade, besides DeBrusk going the other way, who would also be prime pickings to be dealt – should a decent trade option present itself?

VonBrewski: Sweeney’s comments of “2nd line center by committee” are absolutely shocking to me. He let Krejci paint him into a corner. I appreciate what Krejci did for the club but doesn’t it seem that with Krejci’s timing and Sweeney not having a backup plan that they both screwed the Bruins? Sweeney does not impress me as a GM at all.

Let’s combine the Krejci questions together.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news here but I don’t see much in the way of viable options for a top-six center to take David Krejci’s position on the roster.  There weren’t many in free agency and in terms of ones they can afford on the cap (in other words, not Jack Eichel or Evgeny Kuznetsov), pickings are pretty slim.  They’ve been speculatively linked to Arizona’s Christian Dvorak which certainly makes sense.  I just don’t think they have the pieces to make it work for the Coyotes.  With the 25-year-old carrying a $4.45MM AAV for four more years, the asking price is going to be high.  Speculatively, I’d expect something in the equivalent of two first-rounders – one pick and one prospect worth that.  They’d want more than that to take on Jake DeBrusk coming off the year he had and his salary too.  I think someone like Fabian Lysell would be a prospect that would fit one hole but with Boston being a team that’s expected to contend for a top-three seed, their projected 2022 first-rounder may be worse than what other teams are offering.  Dvorak would be a great fit but I’m not sure a trade lines up.  If Calgary winds up adding a center via trade, someone like Sean Monahan would make some sense as well although matching money would be a bit tougher.

Beyond that, I’m going to take Sweeney at his word and say it will be filled internally by committee.  Charlie Coyle is going to get the first chance and is the logical choice.  I think Nick Foligno will be an option at some point; he played down the middle frequently with Columbus when there were injuries.  I really liked the Erik Haula signing; he works well as a third center but at times, he has played well enough to be in the top six.  I’m not saying it won’t be an issue but as far as internal options go, they’re not particularly bad.

That’s not absolving GM Don Sweeney entirely, however.  This is something that they haven’t really planned for well over the past few years other than the Coyle acquisition since he had played down the middle with Minnesota at times.  But it’s not all his fault either.  When you’re picking at the back of the first round (or not at all in the first round having traded picks for win-now help), this is what happens.  There’s a reason that impact centers – even second-liners – are hard to come by.  Alexander Wennberg just got $4.5MM per season less than a calendar year after Columbus bought him out.  At best, he’s a second-liner.  Impact centers are the hardest piece to acquire and for a long time, Boston had two of them.  Yes, Sweeney failed in terms of not having a proven backup plan but that’s hardly a problem unique to the Bruins; many teams are or have been in the same situation.

As for Krejci, he earned the right to make the decision when he did and it sounds like he had at least informed Boston that he was leaning in that direction.  I don’t think there’s much blame for him in this.  And Sweeney certainly hasn’t closed the door on him returning at some point either although that’s easier said than done in terms of making it work on the salary cap.

mikedickinson: Major wave of free agency done… Give me your top eight in the East and top eight in the West after the additions and subtractions of players.

Subject to change as I don’t think all of the notable moves on the trade front are all done just yet, here’s a quick guess at the playoff teams as things stand (in no particular order).

Atlantic: Tampa Bay, Boston, Florida
Metropolitan: Carolina, Washington, NY Islanders
East Wild Cards: Toronto, Philadelphia

Central: Colorado, Winnipeg, St. Louis
Pacific: Vegas, Edmonton, Vancouver
West Wild Cards: Dallas, Chicago

2012orioles: Capitals have taken back the idea of trading Kuznetsov. Is this just a tactic to get a better return? Or will he truly be a Capital opening night?

I don’t think it’s a tactic.  As much as there is some negativity surrounding Evgeny Kuznetsov, he’s still a legitimate top-six center and when he’s on, he’s still a top-liner.  They can’t afford to give away that type of talent at a steep discount with an aging Nicklas Backstrom and Lars Eller (who is much better on the third line than the second) in the wings; Connor McMichael isn’t ready yet.

On the flip side, other teams aren’t going to want to pay top dollar with how last year went, especially with a $7.8MM price tag for four more years which looks like above-market value at this point.  There’s definitely a market for Kuznetsov but it’s more a swap of big contracts in the hopes that the change of scenery gets them going.  Is that the type of deal that they should really be doing?  I don’t think so.

They’ve found a way to get cap compliant for next season so they’re not in a spot where they have to move him.  If they don’t get fair value, they can simply hold on to him.  I don’t think he’d fetch fair value in a trade so I don’t think this is a tactic by any stretch.  I expect Kuznetsov will be in a Washington uniform for their opener.

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There were several questions about Vladimir Tarasenko and Jack Eichel so they get the focus in this edition of the PHR Mailbag which also features a question about Anaheim’s captain and the Islanders’ summer strategy of keeping as much secret as possible.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

Gmm8811: My thoughts on the Tarasenko situation in St. Louis compared to when Brett Hull was a Blue. Both were great goal scorers that didn’t contribute much to their defensive game when needed. When Hull left, he became a much better all-around player. Obviously, Hull was more productive, but it was a different era. If Vlad leaves the Blues, do you think he can elevate that part of his game? If he stays in St. Louis, can he get over the issues he’s brought up? Is he hard-headed enough to say the heck with it and go back to Russia if he doesn’t get his way? Does he have it in him to be a “team” player?

I’m going to go out of order here and go with the last one first.  Anything is possible when it comes to a player changing in a new environment but I wouldn’t suggest that’s a likely outcome here.  It’s not as if Tarasenko is a youngster that’s still developing – he’s 29 with 531 career regular season games under his belt.  Can he improve his play away from the puck?  Sure, especially depending on the system he’s in (assuming he’s moved).  But will it be to the point where it’s a demonstrable performance?  Probably not.

There is no mechanism for him to go back to Russia unless he wants to retire from the NHL and do what Ilya Kovalchuk did where he walked away from his contract (eventually coming back when he was declared a free agent).  Tarasenko is owed $15MM in salary over the next two years.  That’s a lot of money to walk away from if he’s unhappy.  He doesn’t necessarily have to get over his concerns if he stays, he just has to play, collect his money, and hope for a trade down the road.

sam i am: First time on here. Thx for the chats. What are your thoughts/ideas about Tarasenko? It’s past time to take a draft pick and eat some salary, isn’t it? Is there a d-man you think they can acquire AFTER Army knows how much cap space is left? Maybe sign Bozak with it? Thx again for your insight.

There’s a part of me that agrees with you.  At some point, is an exit the best for everyone even if it’s a minimal return?  A move with retention probably does allow them to re-sign Tyler Bozak and at this point, I suspect that’s why he remains unsigned at this point as he’s waiting to see if they can free up some money to re-sign him.  Accordingly, Bozak would basically be part of the return for Tarasenko, not just the draft pick.  I don’t see them looking to add an impact defenseman at this point either, they’ll give players like Niko Mikkola and Jake Walman longer looks while Scott Perunovich could be in the mix at some point as well.

On the other hand, at what point does a nominal return of a pick and Bozak’s return get outweighed by the potential of Tarasenko bouncing back?  If they truly believe that the third time is the charm when it comes to his shoulder surgery (I’m a little leery about that), it then stands to reason that they think he can still play an impact role.  And if that’s the case, the potential on-ice reward is better than what Bozak and a pick will bring, not to mention two years of carrying dead money on the books.

Yes, there’s a mutual desire to get a trade done but that doesn’t mean St. Louis should take whatever the best return is even if it’s a lousy one simply to get Tarasenko out of town.  At some point, the potential upside of Tarasenko rebounding has to count for something and I suspect that’s what’s holding things up.  GM Doug Armstrong doesn’t have to move him even though he wants to.

deeds: Where will Tarasenko end up? Are the Blues stuck with a disgruntled employee?

I think he stays with St. Louis, at least to start the season for the reasons mentioned above.  If his trade value is really so low that all they can do is take a pick and have to eat some money to do it, they might as well keep him and see if he rebounds.  Most teams have used up their cap space at this point so it’s not like it’s going to be considerably harder to trade him in-season if it comes to it; they’ll still have to retain money or take a high-priced contract back either way.  If he bounces back, great.  If he doesn’t, he still might be easier to move as an expiring deal a year from now and a buyout could definitely be in play at that point as well.

Coach Wall: Why all the fuss about Jack Eichel? Any team that pays him $10 million AAV for the next five or six years AND gives Buffalo their asking price is foolish. The guy has a very serious neck issue and may not last one year.

First, to clarify, it’s five years for Eichel before he becomes an unrestricted free agent.  And yes, the neck issue is serious although the fusion surgery that the Sabres are pushing for is one that players have had and returned from.  It’s serious but it shouldn’t a career-ender.  The one that Eichel’s camp wants (artificial disc replacement) hasn’t been done on an NHL player before but carries a much shorter recovery time.  When his agents released a statement last month, they claimed he could be ready to start the season.  Even if that isn’t the case now, he might only miss a few games assuming everything goes well.

The reason why there is a lot of fuss is that top centers rarely become available in the prime of their career.  Eichel is a top center in the prime of his career.  He comes with a significant injury but the previous point still stands nonetheless.  That’s why Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams is driving a hard bargain on the trade front.  They don’t have to move him regardless of what the public sentiment is.  The surgery they want would cost him a big chunk of next season but with what they’re planning to run out as a goalie tandem as things currently stand, they might actually view that as a good thing as it’s pretty clear they’re not looking to compete let alone contend.

Should a team pay the premium price tag which still seems to involve four significant young assets?  It’s certainly fair to argue they shouldn’t considering the injury concerns and it’s hard to put conditions in a trade based on a successful operation (but I wouldn’t be shocked if that language is in there at some point).  But Eichel, when healthy, plays at a level that would significantly impact almost every team in the league.  That’s bound to generate plenty of hype.

Gbear: I heard one hockey writer say that Eichel should just get the surgery he wants regardless of what the Sabres recommend, but couldn’t that give the Sabres a legal avenue to try and void Eichel’s contract, let alone cover the costs of the surgery? And might that be the angle Pegula is playing here?

For clarification’s sake, before digging into this, here is the relevant portion of Section 34.4 of the CBA called Second Medical Opinions:

(e) Following the later of: (i) issuance of the Second Medical Opinion; or (ii) issuance of the recommendation on diagnosis or course of treatment by the Third Physician Expert, if any, the team physician shall determine the diagnosis and/or course of treatment (including the timing thereof) after consulting with the Second Medical Opinion Physician and the Third Physician Expert, if any, and giving due consideration to his/her/their recommendation(s).

The second medical opinion is the one that’s saying to do the artificial disc replacement but this rule clearly indicates that Buffalo gets to decide on the course of treatment and they’ve made their preference known.

There is a clause in a standard player’s contract (Section 6) that has a remedy for the team to void a deal if there is a material breach and I’m sure there’s an argument that could be made to say that getting a surgery that has never been performed on an NHL player before without consent from the team constitutes a material breach.

But I don’t think that’s Buffalo’s end game.  If owner Terry Pegula simply wanted out of the contract, wouldn’t he just tell his GM to trade him for whatever the best deal available is and be done with it?  I think Buffalo’s situation basically is they don’t want their star player being the guinea pig for a surgery that has never been performed on an NHL player before.  It doesn’t matter that other athletes have had it; they just don’t want it done to their guy.  They want Eichel to have what they feel is the safer procedure and that he comes back late in the season and resumes being their top forward right away.

Could Eichel force the issue?  Sure, but the consequences could be dire.  I have to think that if it was a more realistic scenario without the risk of his deal being voided, it might have been done already.

JerCanne: On a scale from 1-10 what are the chances Eichel is a Calgary Flame in October?

I’ll give it a two.  Eichel makes a lot of sense for the Flames.  Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm, and Mikael Backlund are all quality centers but none of them have the top-level upside that a healthy Eichel would bring to the table.  (It briefly appeared that Monahan could but that has waned over the last couple of seasons.)

But while those players are quality pieces, none are really young enough to entice Buffalo unless their main presence is as a salary offset.  The Flames don’t have a particularly robust prospect pool that will make them willing to deal the types of youngsters that Adams and the Sabres are seeking.  Eichel is a good fit on paper for Calgary but I don’t think they have the trade pieces that Buffalo is going to want unless their asking price dips sharply.

JustPete: What do you think of the Ducks new contract with Getzlaf – seems awfully rich to me. Follow up question – are the Ducks in such a position to warrant their lack of free agent activity or should they just fire Bob Murray?

I think it’s a little high but not overly excessive.  A $3MM base salary for a third liner isn’t over the top and given their inactivity, he’s still probably in their top six in which case the price tag is reasonable.  $1.5MM in games played bonuses makes it a little strange as Anaheim doesn’t exactly need the cap flexibility but it could come in handy if those bonuses are hit before the trade deadline if they wind up deciding to move him.  I wouldn’t have given Ryan Getzlaf quite that much but with the cap space they have, if you’re going to overpay someone, it might as well be a franchise icon.

Let’s dig into the lack of free agent activity which starts and ends with Getzlaf.  I have to admit, that surprised me.  I thought they were going to try to add a piece or two to try get back into the mix in the Pacific Division but the lack of movement suggests that Murray is thinking about a longer-term rebuild.  Frankly, that’s not a bad idea but if you’re going to do that, having a head coach in the final year of his contract (with their new AHL bench boss highlighting that as an attraction as Joel Bouchard did last month) seems a little strange as well.

Murray hasn’t had a great last few years, that much is for sure.  But if he has been given the green light to go down this path, he has some job security to do so; ownership likely wouldn’t commit to this plan and then fire him partway through it.  I think he sticks around.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Why do the Islanders wait so long to make their contracts official? What benefit is there for the team, and even more perplexing, what benefit is there for the players?

By keeping as much cap space open as they have, it helped the Islanders hedge against an offer sheet.  While they’re rarely handed out, enough teams are concerned about it to do things to deter against one being issued.  For some of the contracts in place, are there side agreements to amend the term/money depending on what happens?  Your guess is as good as mine on that front.

It also could give them a little bit of extra leverage in trade discussions.  If they want to acquire someone, how much cap space do they have to clear to make that move happen?  If no other teams know what the Isles’ cap situation is like, it can’t be used against them.  For example, another team can’t come back and say that New York’s cap situation is so bad that they have to sell so and so for pennies on the dollar or demand additional compensation to take a player on.  They can’t make that claim because they don’t know how much money the Islanders have or don’t have.

In terms of the benefit for the players, there is none.  But GM Lou Lamoriello has been around long enough to be trusted.  There are handshake deals in place and he’ll live up to them.

Largely, this is Lou just being Lou.  He’s known to have a firm no-leak policy and has walked away from deals before if it became public before being officially announced.  That’s enough to have multiple agents and players keeping quiet at a time where the majority of moves are leaked in advance of being made official.  That’s really quite impressive even if it can be frustrating along the way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the upcoming expansion draft, Nathan MacKinnon’s future, some Entry Draft predictions, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

Nha Trang: Crystal Ball #2: Is Ron Francis’ intent in Seattle to emulate Vegas and win now, or to put together a team that’ll contend 2-3 years from now?

I suspect Francis is looking ahead a few years but to be fair, I don’t think the Golden Knights went into the process expecting to make a long playoff run in their first season either.  With who all was left unprotected, Seattle could assemble a roster that could make a real run at a playoff spot but they should be looking to accumulate some picks and prospects more than trying to get into the postseason right away.

The way to do that will be to pick some players that can be flipped for value.  Last time, Vegas took some veteran defensemen that went for late picks which is fine (Seattle will probably do the same with a few picks) but there are some top-six forwards available that other teams will part with quality assets to get.  For example, if Tampa Bay doesn’t pay the high price to entice them to take Tyler Johnson, then take and flip Ondrej Palat who, as a rental, will yield a nice return.  Same with Calgary and Mark Giordano.  I’m sure they’ll get some picks for taking on certain contracts as well but moving one or two of their better selections would be a way to differentiate themselves from Vegas and build for the future.

Shjon: How active and/or successful do you think Francis will be during the free agent interview period between the 18th and 21st?

I suspect they’ll be extremely active in terms of speaking with UFAs.  They’ll talk to dozens of them if they can.  They get an opportunity to learn about a bunch of asking prices and if I were them, I’d try to get a couple of agreements in principle in place without actually selecting that player just to add as many assets as possible.

If you define success by how many they actually sign, I’d say they won’t be successful.  Other than Chris Driedger who is the expected selection with a sign and select agreement, I don’t know if they really need to sign anyone else.  They’ll be successful in terms of knowing more about what the UFA market will look like than any other team.  But if they sign a bunch of players, I wouldn’t call it a success in that they will be giving up the opportunity to add other pieces as well.  Fill out the roster with signed players and RFAs to build up the asset base, then supplement it with free agents at the end of the month.

Y2KAK: Who would be the most realistic player going to Seattle? Oshie? Tyler Johnson?

There aren’t many ‘obvious’ selections to make a list of realistic if not likely picks.  Giordano from the Flames seems like the logical selection as someone that could be flipped but Calgary may want to pay to keep him around.  I’d like to put Vince Dunn as a realistic choice as a young defenseman with some offensive pop that’s under team control for a while but Vladimir Tarasenko has to be tempting in terms of trying to improve his value and then flipping him later.

I’ll go with Driedger just with how long he’s been linked to them but if they decide they want to take Carey Price (I don’t think they will, especially with the injury questions now), even Driedger wouldn’t be a certainty as Seattle may not want to tie up that much money between the pipes.  That’s one of the really intriguing elements of this draft is just how many viable ways Seattle can go here.  Each writer here at PHR will be picking a mock team and I expect there will be plenty of varying opinions.

M34: MacKinnon has publicly stated he would take a “cheaper” deal again next time he is up. At that point in his career, and the MVP-caliber status/production, what is his market value? What kind of “lesser” deal is he willing to sign?  Will it make a difference whether or not Colorado wins a Cup between now and then?

Assuming that Connor McDavid’s $12.5MM remains the top bar as it should be, Nathan MacKinnon’s market value should settle in a little below that in the $11.5MM to $12MM range.  John Tavares is basically the only comparable top center to actually sign recently via unrestricted free agency and he signed for $11MM.  MacKinnon is the better player so $11MM becomes the minimum bar to clear if he gets to the open market.  He’ll be 27 at the time of his free agency (turning 28 before the 2023-24 season starts) and still in the prime of his career so while that’s undoubtedly a high price tag, it’d be justifiable for teams to throw it at him.

A hometown discount is always tough to peg for superstar players.  It’s not as if the player can accept a lower AAV for a longer-term deal like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins did; MacKinnon is getting the max (eight years from Colorado, seven from everyone else).  And even in this cap environment, there will be enough teams willing to throw that type of money at him.  Would he take a million less per year than market value?  Maybe but it’d be hard to see the discount being much more than that.

I don’t think it will make much of a difference if they’ve won the Stanley Cup between now and then.  For me, it’s a question of being contenders.  Is Colorado still going to be a consistent threat in the West two years from now?  If the answer to that question is yes (and it should be), then that’s the bigger priority over already having won one.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: It sounds like almost all draft prospects plan to return to their current teams next year. Are there any notable players who would possibly try the NHL or AHL next year? Also, how much of this is COVID-19 related, as this certainly seems higher than normal?

There are usually only a handful of draft picks to make the jump each year, including the top selection; Mike Modano was the last to not go to the NHL right away and that was in 1988.  With this being a lost development year for a lot of prospects, it’s not shocking that some of the expected top picks are planning on staying where they are for another year and in most cases, I think whoever drafts them would be fine with it.  (I think Buffalo would rather Owen Power turn pro right away so we’ll see if they can make that happen assuming he does indeed go number one.)  Generally speaking, a lot of this should be attributed to COVID-19.

As for trying the AHL, I don’t expect any of the European prospects to try that league while most American prospects will be committed to the college route.  Those are the ones that are eligible to go to that league as anyone picked from the CHL is restricted from joining the AHL until they turn 20 or have four years of service time.

rogueraceseries: Thank you for fielding questions! My head-scratcher is this…. What 2021 draft-eligible prospect will make the biggest leap/splash in this year’s draft? Like Seider jumping to #6 two years ago. Conversely, what player do you think will drop the most? Maybe Caufield as an example (he has had the last laugh this playoff run, hasn’t he? #nhlerstud)

Mason McTavish really seems to be flying up the rankings lately.  A few months ago, he seemed to be at the back of the lottery but all of a sudden, a top-five selection doesn’t appear to be out of the question.  I’ll also toss Sebastian Cossa out as a possibility.  Are there teams that value him higher than Jesper Wallstedt?  If so, he could go a fair bit higher than where most would expect (which, at this point, is probably in the late teens/early twenties).  Two Russians in Danill Chayka and Nikita Chibrikov are other candidates.  Some have them in the second round but if there’s a team that’s sold on his upside, they could land in the teens.

As for who drops, my usual picks for this question each year tend to get picked earlier than normal; the crystal ball doesn’t seem to work well for this one.  I’ll go with Aatu Raty.  Once viewed as a possible top-five pick, his value has dropped considerably.  Some have him in the teens but it wouldn’t shock me if he slides closer to the back of the first round.

Cheechoo56: Assuming we are to believe Doug Wilson’s saying the Sharks are retooling and not rebuilding, are there any free agent goalkeepers that make sense in San Jose (given a potential buyout for Martin Jones and their cap situation)?

It’s not a great year for true number one goalies in free agency and that’s what San Jose really needs.  Philipp Grubauer is the top name out there but his career high in games played is 40.  Whether it’s retooling or rebuilding, the Sharks don’t need someone in their 30s already.  Someone with an opportunity to be around for a few years would be preferable.

If it’s not Grubauer, I’d be looking at Linus Ullmark.  Ullmark has struggled to secure the starting role in Buffalo but San Jose’s back end is a whole different animal.  Perhaps a change of scenery gives him a bit of a boost and if that happens, San Jose would have goaltending that probably checks in just above the league average.  They’d take that in a heartbeat.

Adin Hill is going to be part of the equation now as well but I don’t think he’s ready to be a starter yet or even the 1A guy in a platoon.  They’re still going to need a more proven starter and Jones isn’t it.  I’m not convinced Ullmark will be either but that tandem would certainly put them in the right direction.

Rene vandervelden: Who is a better trade target for the Kings, Jack Eichel or Vladimir Tarasenko?

I’ll go with Tarasenko.  The Kings aren’t really in a spot where they should be parting with a bunch of top young talent to try to win now.  I know that’s what their veteran core wants but it’s not the smart move.  Anze Kopitar is already at $10MM and adding another center at that price point may not be the wisest decision which sours me on Eichel as a fit.  I’m not opposed to the idea of them dealing away one of their many young pivots but not for him.

What I like about Tarasenko is that his trade value shouldn’t be all that high.  He wants out, he has had shoulder trouble the last few years, and his contract at $7.5MM is too expensive for most teams to absorb.  The Kings can take on that deal without offsets which gives them a leg up.  Is there a risk to Tarasenko?  Absolutely.  But there’s also the potential for a high reward and at what would appear to be a below-market acquisition cost, there’s a chance for them to upgrade the roster without losing key parts of the future.  That’s the sweet spot I’m looking for if I’m GM Rob Blake.

@FritzLiebich: Are the LA Kings ready to contend or are they 2-3 players away? Who should the Kings target by way of UFA or trade?

There is an opportunity for Los Angeles to be a playoff contender next season but by that, I mean a team that’s in a battle for a Wild Card spot.  That’s not really true contention and it’s why I just advocated against making a big splash on the trade market with Eichel.  But I do like the idea of them trying to add and the Viktor Arvidsson pickup certainly made sense.

I’d be looking for veteran bridge players if I was Blake, players that can upgrade the roster now but also be expendable in a trade if one of their many young prospects is ready for a bigger role.  That means players on short-term contracts unless they’re adding someone that they think could still be a quality contributor a few years from now.

They could go for a free agent but I like the trade route better.  Many teams are looking to dump contracts which means there will be opportunities to add roster upgrades at below-market costs such as Tarasenko above.  Target Tampa Bay as they have several pricey veterans that need to be moved for cap reasons; they can’t command full value.  As an example, Alex Killorn would be another nice addition on the wing.  The Islanders may want to shed some money based on who they left unprotected.  Jordan Eberle’s contract is a bit long for my liking (three more years) but would fill a positional need.  They’re not getting these types of players for free but they won’t be paying a premium either and won’t have to sign someone to a longer-term contract that wouldn’t be advisable based on where they are.  They’d improve the team and not mortgage the future in terms of assets or cap flexibility.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include an underachieving Bruin, some crystal ball predictions, the goalie situation for the Golden Knights, buyout candidates, and much, much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

Puckhead83: You’re Don Sweeney. Are you exposing Jake DeBrusk and taking the cap relief, trading him at his lowest value, or making him your reclamation project?

Can I take none of the above?  If I’m Sweeney, I’m leaning towards buying DeBrusk out and taking the cap relief that way.  The structure of his backloaded contract gives Boston a cap credit of $367K in 2021-22 and a charge of $808K in 2022-23; his buyout is only one-third instead of two-thirds because of his age (24).  His qualifying offer in 2022-23 is $4.85MM and even a decent bounce-back season probably isn’t worthy of a tender so making him the reclamation project doesn’t make sense.

I’d leave him unprotected in expansion but I don’t think Seattle would bite.  Jeremy Lauzon is my preferred target from the Bruins, a young and cheap defenseman with some upside and can already handle himself in the NHL.

As for a trade, what’s better for Boston – roughly $4MM in cap space this summer or taking on a similar underperformer in a trade for DeBrusk?  The UFA market is going to be like last fall; there will be bargains to be had.  If I’m Sweeney, I’m making my bet that a UFA signing will be a better fit than the addition of the prototypical change of scenery swap player that I’d get in a swap.

The Duke: Crystal Ball time: Where will Ekman-Larsson and Kessel end up – and what’s Adin Hill’s future hold? Bonus question: who will be Nashville’s backup goalie – and what is Connor Ingram’s status? Thanks!

Oliver Ekman-Larsson: I think he stays in Arizona.  The Coyotes aren’t a team that’s going to want to carry a lot of dead money on the books and with the cap environment being what it is and the year he had, no one is taking on the six years and $8.25MM AAV outright.  There’s a new coach in Andre Tourigny so why not see if the captain can turn things around over selling low and paying him a good chunk of money not to play for them?

Phil Kessel: They’ve already paid most of his contract for next season in the form of a signing bonus and only owe him $800K with Toronto covering the other $200K.  This a budget-conscious team so while I know his name is out there, I don’t think they’re in much of a hurry to move his contract.  If they’re out of it at the deadline, he’ll move then but I think he stays with the Coyotes.

Hill: He should be in the NHL next season, either as Darcy Kuemper’s backup or picked by Seattle in expansion.  Hill has two years before reaching UFA eligibility so he is going to have to establish himself as a legitimate backup between now and then.  He should get that chance starting next year though.

Ingram: Ingram did return to Nashville’s farm team late in the season and still has two years left on his contract with the final year being a one-way pact.  He’s now waiver-eligible and is one of the more intriguing netminders in that situation.  This year was a write-off with everything that happened which could push him out of the mix to be the Predators’ backup but in 2019-20, he was nothing short of dominant.  Is there a team that is willing to give him a chance based on that?  I’m quite interested in seeing how that plays out in the fall.

DirtbagBlues: Can Vegas really afford to keep this goalie tandem? There seems to be no interest in moving either of them, but they could badly use the cap space. Not that this helps them with the cap, but if Vegas doesn’t trade an NHL goalie, could Logan Thompson be moved for a young skater?

They can afford to if they want.  They have probably three or four roster spots to fill (two forwards plus one or two defensemen) and roughly $6MM in cap space.  Go cheap on those slots and there is room to keep both Marc-Andre Fleury and Robin Lehner.  However, they’d be parting ways with Alec Martinez, Mattias Janmark, and potentially Tomas Nosek in the process and taking a step backwards so the question becomes is keeping both the right move to make?

Last year, the asking price to take on Fleury’s deal was high but things have changed since then.  He’s now the reigning Vezina winner which helps his value.  He also now has just one year left on his contract which also helps his value.  With so many other goalies available in free agency, Vegas couldn’t command a significant return but they shouldn’t have to pay to get out of it either.  Meanwhile, with Fleury being 36, they can’t really move Lehner who is the goalie of the near future.  They can make keeping both of them work but there is a definite opportunity cost in doing so.

As for moving Thompson, sure, he could be swapped for a young skater but it would be of the fringe variety.  He has one very good AHL season under his belt but that alone doesn’t give him much trade value.  They’re not going to get someone that could step into the bottom six up front or the third pairing defensively for someone with that small of a track record.  I’d hold onto him and if he has another strong year in Henderson, he’s a cost-effective backup to Lehner in 2022-23.

wreckage: Who is the most likely buyout candidate?

Anthony DeAngelo of the Rangers is the most obvious one.  They’re not going to pay him $5.3MM in salary to sit at home for another year when a buyout cap charge would be less than $1.2MM spread out over two seasons.  Teams aren’t going to trade for him at that salary so that one is pretty much a lock.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Jake Virtanen is in a similar situation.  The off-ice situation is still in play and his play on the ice (five goals and zero assists in 38 games) doesn’t warrant the contract he has.  It’s another one-third buyout with just a $50K cap charge next season and $500K the year after that.  Vancouver can do better with that money.

In terms of veterans, Edmonton’s Mikko Koskinen also seems quite likely.  There is now only one year left on his deal at $4.5MM and that’s way too much money for a backup goalie that can’t be relied on.  Even with a $1.5MM buyout charge for two years, I suspect GM Ken Holland can find a better fit between the pipes for the net $3MM savings for next season.  With some uncertainty with a long-term starting option, they can’t afford to carry more uncertainty at the backup spot either.

I expect a few more buyouts than these but it would be surprising if any of these three aren’t hitting the open market later this month.

@DJ23420117: What are the Wild going to do about Parise? Buyout? Trade w/Kraken? Keep him and make nice?

There is no good answer in this situation.  Let’s get that out of the way first.  The buyout cost – one that would give them some room next season before jumping to $6.3MM, $7.3MM, and $7.3MM – accomplishes next to nothing.  With his AAV being $7.538MM, they can’t even replace him without incurring a higher cap hit than had they just kept him.  In that situation, keeping him makes sense although he’s clearly unhappy with the situation.

A trade with Seattle is nice in theory but what would it cost to get them to take the contract on?  With the market being what it is, we’re probably looking at multiple first-round picks or comparable assets while also locking in the potential for salary cap recapture if he decides to retire early.

Honestly, I think they may be better off just keeping him; I don’t know about the make nice part though.  No one is happy in this scenario either but I wouldn’t want to give up so many future pieces to move him or create a bunch of dead cap space that winds up costing them more money to fill his spot in some of those years than it would be to keep him.  There’s no desirable answer here so for Parise, it’ll be a matter of choosing the least undesirable solution.

Y2KAK: Any chance Buffalo doesn’t go Owen Power?

Nothing is ever 100% certain but the odds they don’t go with Power would be low.  I doubt they’re concerned with him leaning towards staying in college for another year; that wouldn’t scare them off from picking him.  Big, top pairing defenders don’t become available very often and passing on one wouldn’t make much sense.

About the only scenario where I could maybe see them not taking him is if they traded Jack Eichel for a package that really shored up their defense with multiple long-term pieces to the point where they then look at someone like Matthew Beniers to replace Eichel up the middle.  But even that isn’t a very realistic scenario.  I’d be really surprised if Power isn’t a Sabre later this month.

Red Wings: What would it take for the Panthers to get rid of Bobrovsky? Or more realistically Yandle?

To move Sergei Bobrovsky, it would take eating a significant chunk of his $10MM cap hit for the next five seasons.  That’s a lot of money to pay someone not to play for them and as a budget-conscious team, it’s an even bigger hit.  From there, they’d have to take on a deal with at least three years left at a similar price tag as the non-retained portion on Bobrovsky.  Is that worth doing for Florida?  Probably not at this stage.  I’m not expecting him to rebound significantly next season but a small improvement could get him closer to league average.  That, coupled with one less year on his contract a year from now, might make it slightly less difficult to move him.

You’re correct that Keith Yandle is the more realistic trade option.  With only two years left and a $6.35MM cap hit, that’s a lot less of a hit to take on than Bobrovsky.  Yandle can also still contribute offensively although his struggles in his own end are what ultimately led to him being scratched in the playoffs.  The formula to a trade is similar to Bobrovsky – retain a sizable percentage and take a player back making the difference between Yandle’s AAV and the retained portion, creating a cap-neutral trade which will be a key to many moves this summer.  They’ll be losing some offensive punch with such a move but improved defensive zone play would help negate that.

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The Stanley Cup could be awarded this evening and the offseason is already in full swing around the NHL. We’re just a few weeks away from the Seattle Kraken selecting their expansion roster and the 2021 draft class finding out which team will choose them. Free agency will soon follow and teams will start preparing for the 2021-22 season, which is just a few months away thanks to the altered sports calendar.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. In the first part, Brian La Rose gave his thoughts on Philadelphia’s defense corps, the future of Jack Eichel and Rasmus Ristolainen in Buffalo, and whether or not the Maple Leafs made a mistake when they installed Kyle Dubas as general manager.  In the second, he suggested some teams that may need to complete a side deal with the Kraken, examined some interesting free agent targets, and gave his thoughts on the Dougie Hamilton market.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include San Jose’s expansion situation for their back end, potential side deals and targets for Seattle, Dylan Larkin’s future with Detroit, how to free up cap space for the Islanders, Dougie Hamilton’s trade value, Boston’s drafting, Edmonton’s need for better complementary forwards, Philadelphia’s summer, and Patrik Laine.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Could Doug Wilson convince Vlasic and Karlsson to waive their NMCs and then protect 8 forwards/0 defensemen?

That’s certainly a creative idea although it would be tricky to do that and stay in compliance with the requirement for having two signed forwards under contract that played 27 games this year or 54 in the past two combined.  When Gavin looked at their expansion situation last week, they were at zero eligible forwards to begin with.  Adding an extra forward to the protected list is going to make fulfilling that particular obligation that much tougher.

But if they can sign enough forwards that qualify to do that, it would definitely be an avenue worth pursuing.  Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Erik Karlsson aren’t getting picked because of their contract and neither is Brent Burns.  That would certainly limit their exposure to either losing Radim Simek, Josef Korenar (as a depth goalie), or a depth forward.  If they can do that, they’d come out of expansion as one of the more fortunate teams in the league.

jdgoat: Who do you think works out a side deal with Seattle? Also, who will be the most expensive players they end up with?

Washington looks like a strong candidate given that they have to keep their cheap goaltending tandem intact.  There’s no way to protect both Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek and whichever one is unprotected would be tempting for the Kraken so a move will need to be made there.  Tampa Bay is certainly going to try to make a move to entice Seattle to take a pricey contract (Tyler Johnson seems like the speculative fit there).  Calgary could very well wind up leaving Mark Giordano unprotected but it’s hard to imagine they won’t try to find a way to keep their captain around.  If Minnesota can’t find a trade taker for Mathew Dumba in time, they’ll undoubtedly try to make a side deal as well to avoid losing him for nothing.  The same can be said for St. Louis and Vince Dunn.

I think the most expensive player they wind up with may very well come from Philadelphia.  Jakub Voracek ($8.25MM) and James van Riemsdyk ($7MM) could both be unprotected and would jump onto Seattle’s top line right away.  Both commitments are relatively short-term (three years for Voracek, two for van Riemsdyk) so there isn’t much long-term risk here.  I can’t see anyone more expensive than one of those two being selected.

pawtucket: Which UFAs should Seattle go after to compliment the plethora of 3rd line forwards and 5th/6th d-men they get from the expansion draft?

A lot depends on their plans.  Are they looking to win right away or are they eyeing a more gradual buildup which is what most expansion teams wind up going through?  If it’s the former, then they’re going to go after the likes of Dougie Hamilton and Gabriel Landeskog if they get to the open market.  If it’s the latter, however (and I suspect it is), then it’s all about short-term contracts.

Why?  Rental players are always in demand but in this cap environment, not having lingering obligations beyond the current season is even more appealing.  So if I’m GM Ron Francis and thinking more about two or three years from now, I want players that are easy to flip for extra picks or prospects to start building up their system.  They won’t have an AHL team next season but Palm Springs will start in 2022-23 so what’s a good way to start building that team?  By flipping a bunch of rentals at the trade deadline.

Who can still contribute to a team but will likely be stuck taking a one-year deal in free agency?  It’s a long list and that’s where Seattle should be shopping on the open market.

Eaton Harass: Any chance Larkin is available? He’d be a perfect fit for a team like the Avs or Rangers. They definitely have the pieces to get it done.

I don’t think Dylan Larkin is available or should be but I’ll qualify that by noting that I remember writing in a previous mailbag that Anthony Mantha wouldn’t be going anywhere at the deadline and we all know how that turned out.  Teams need capable veteran leadership and while Larkin isn’t exactly a veteran, he’s pretty close to one on this team.  He’s also young enough to be part of that next core which is still probably a few years away.  It’s worth noting that he’s an unrestricted free agent in 2023 and if he gives an indication that he doesn’t want to stay, then yes, move him.  But that feels like a discussion to be had next summer when he’s eligible for a contract extension more than one that needs to happen now.

I’m not sure either Colorado or New York would be a perfect fit either.  If the Avs are able to keep Gabriel Landeskog and Philipp Grubauer (both pending UFAs), they’ll pretty much be capped out re-signing their own talent (which also includes Cale Makar as an RFA).  Is Detroit going to take a return centered around Nazem Kadri for Larkin?  Probably not.  As for the Rangers, Larkin is a good center but is he a true number one?  That’s what they need.  If he’s in that tier that’s slightly below a top center, they already have that in Mika Zibanejad, assuming they’re able to extend him.  Sure, he’d be an upgrade on Ryan Strome on a long-term basis but I feel their top trade chips should be saved for someone that can be more impactful offensively or at least be guaranteed to be around longer than two years, the remaining term of Larkin’s contract.

Joe422: Nobody ever knows what Lou is thinking but the Islanders need to free up cap space to sign their RFA and resign Cizikas. What does Lou do? Trade Nick Leddy? What would he get back? A 2nd and a 3rd round pick? Could you also see Jordan Eberle being left unprotected and Kyle Palmieri be re-signed for less annual $ than Eberle?

Let’s look at that cap situation first.  Per PuckPedia, they have about $75.7MM in commitments to 17 players with, as you noted, Casey Cizikas and Kyle Palmieri among the pending UFAs while Anthony Beauvillier and Ilya Sorokin are among the RFAs.  Even with Johnny Boychuk being eligible for LTIR (allowing them to spend up to $6MM past the cap), you’re absolutely correct in that they need to shed salary.

Leo Komarov and Andrew Ladd look like candidates to be full-season members with AHL Bridgeport, clearing up $1.125MM in space for each of them though those amounts are offset by needing to replace them with someone making close to the minimum.  Still, there’s a few hundred thousand in savings.  Cal Clutterbuck feels like another possible cap casualty, either through waivers or even a buyout.  He plays an important role but he’s way too expensive for that role.  Ross Johnston could also be waived and farmed out with someone making the minimum replacing him, saving $250K.

I expect Cizikas will return at a lower price tag than $3.35MM.  He will be sought after by a lot of teams but most teams can’t pay fourth liners that type of money and that includes the Islanders.  If the offers are near the $2MM mark, he’ll probably stay put.

I don’t see Palmieri sticking around for a couple of reasons.  The first is that I don’t think they’ll leave Eberle unprotected and even if they did, does Seattle find his $5.5MM price tag for three more years appealing?  The second is that I wouldn’t be surprised if Palmieri covets a bigger role than what he had with the Islanders as he was more of a middle-six player than a top-six one (and while both of those involve the second line, I think there’s a distinction between the two).

I agree that Leddy feels like a cap casualty but how strong is his market?  They’d have preferred to trade him instead of Devon Toews a year ago so they can’t expect to get a similar return as they got for Toews for Leddy now.  If there’s going to be an expansion casualty, I think it might be him.  I like Leddy and he’s a serviceable second-pairing defender.  However, this is not a good market to be dumping money and he also is at $5.5MM but just for one more year.  If I’m Seattle, Leddy’s contract is more attractive than Eberle’s if it came to that.  While they’d need to replace him, they should be able to re-sign Adam Pelech and a Leddy replacement for that money (plus Pelech’s previous $1.6MM AAV).

Sorokin looks like a candidate for a bridge deal to keep his cost down and if they go short-term with Beauvillier (even a one-year contract), they can keep the cost manageable.  With the other small cap savings, they should be able to stay cap compliant.

mikedickinson: $8 million seems insane for Hamilton. He looked lost when Slavin was out during the Nashville series. As a Canes fan, what could we expect for compensation? Also, if Dougie leaves, any chance we make a run at Jones, if he’d sign for less than Hamilton?

The one downside to doing what they did by letting his camp talk to teams is that it took away any possibility of doing what they did with Joel Edmundson last fall, flipping his rights to Montreal for a fifth-round pick.  Why trade for exclusive rights when you can already talk to him?  If Hamilton doesn’t really want an eighth year on his contract if the money isn’t as high as he wants, the sign-and-trade isn’t as important either; he can get his seven years from anyone.

I can’t see the return for Hamilton in an extend-and-trade deal being too substantial.  The acquiring team will probably send a contract back to help offset the money and Carolina will be compensated for taking that salary offset on in the form of a draft pick or prospect.  I know that sounds underwhelming but unless Hamilton goes to Carolina and gives them a list of a few teams to choose from, it’s going to be tough to get any sort of bidding war going.  That’s what drives the trade price up and without that element, they don’t have a lot of leverage.

Knowing the emphasis that Carolina puts on their back end, I wouldn’t rule out a run at Seth Jones entirely but that’s an in-division trade for Columbus and I doubt that’s their preference.  But yeah, I think they’d kick the tires at least and someone like Brady Skjei, who has three years left at a reasonable rate for a second-pairing player, could be of some interest to the Blue Jackets.  I suspect they want to send him out West if they can, however.

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