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PHR Mailbag

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

July 9, 2021 at 3:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 29 Comments

The Stanley Cup could be awarded this evening and the offseason is already in full swing around the NHL. We’re just a few weeks away from the Seattle Kraken selecting their expansion roster and the 2021 draft class finding out which team will choose them. Free agency will soon follow and teams will start preparing for the 2021-22 season, which is just a few months away thanks to the altered sports calendar.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. In the first part, Brian La Rose gave his thoughts on Philadelphia’s defense corps, the future of Jack Eichel and Rasmus Ristolainen in Buffalo, and whether or not the Maple Leafs made a mistake when they installed Kyle Dubas as general manager.  In the second, he suggested some teams that may need to complete a side deal with the Kraken, examined some interesting free agent targets, and gave his thoughts on the Dougie Hamilton market.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

29 comments

PHR Mailbag: San Jose’s Defense, Seattle, Larkin, Islanders, Hamilton, Bruins, Oilers, Flyers, Laine

June 26, 2021 at 4:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 10 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include San Jose’s expansion situation for their back end, potential side deals and targets for Seattle, Dylan Larkin’s future with Detroit, how to free up cap space for the Islanders, Dougie Hamilton’s trade value, Boston’s drafting, Edmonton’s need for better complementary forwards, Philadelphia’s summer, and Patrik Laine.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Could Doug Wilson convince Vlasic and Karlsson to waive their NMCs and then protect 8 forwards/0 defensemen?

That’s certainly a creative idea although it would be tricky to do that and stay in compliance with the requirement for having two signed forwards under contract that played 27 games this year or 54 in the past two combined.  When Gavin looked at their expansion situation last week, they were at zero eligible forwards to begin with.  Adding an extra forward to the protected list is going to make fulfilling that particular obligation that much tougher.

But if they can sign enough forwards that qualify to do that, it would definitely be an avenue worth pursuing.  Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Erik Karlsson aren’t getting picked because of their contract and neither is Brent Burns.  That would certainly limit their exposure to either losing Radim Simek, Josef Korenar (as a depth goalie), or a depth forward.  If they can do that, they’d come out of expansion as one of the more fortunate teams in the league.

jdgoat: Who do you think works out a side deal with Seattle? Also, who will be the most expensive players they end up with?

Washington looks like a strong candidate given that they have to keep their cheap goaltending tandem intact.  There’s no way to protect both Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek and whichever one is unprotected would be tempting for the Kraken so a move will need to be made there.  Tampa Bay is certainly going to try to make a move to entice Seattle to take a pricey contract (Tyler Johnson seems like the speculative fit there).  Calgary could very well wind up leaving Mark Giordano unprotected but it’s hard to imagine they won’t try to find a way to keep their captain around.  If Minnesota can’t find a trade taker for Mathew Dumba in time, they’ll undoubtedly try to make a side deal as well to avoid losing him for nothing.  The same can be said for St. Louis and Vince Dunn.

I think the most expensive player they wind up with may very well come from Philadelphia.  Jakub Voracek ($8.25MM) and James van Riemsdyk ($7MM) could both be unprotected and would jump onto Seattle’s top line right away.  Both commitments are relatively short-term (three years for Voracek, two for van Riemsdyk) so there isn’t much long-term risk here.  I can’t see anyone more expensive than one of those two being selected.

pawtucket: Which UFAs should Seattle go after to compliment the plethora of 3rd line forwards and 5th/6th d-men they get from the expansion draft?

A lot depends on their plans.  Are they looking to win right away or are they eyeing a more gradual buildup which is what most expansion teams wind up going through?  If it’s the former, then they’re going to go after the likes of Dougie Hamilton and Gabriel Landeskog if they get to the open market.  If it’s the latter, however (and I suspect it is), then it’s all about short-term contracts.

Why?  Rental players are always in demand but in this cap environment, not having lingering obligations beyond the current season is even more appealing.  So if I’m GM Ron Francis and thinking more about two or three years from now, I want players that are easy to flip for extra picks or prospects to start building up their system.  They won’t have an AHL team next season but Palm Springs will start in 2022-23 so what’s a good way to start building that team?  By flipping a bunch of rentals at the trade deadline.

Who can still contribute to a team but will likely be stuck taking a one-year deal in free agency?  It’s a long list and that’s where Seattle should be shopping on the open market.

Eaton Harass: Any chance Larkin is available? He’d be a perfect fit for a team like the Avs or Rangers. They definitely have the pieces to get it done.

I don’t think Dylan Larkin is available or should be but I’ll qualify that by noting that I remember writing in a previous mailbag that Anthony Mantha wouldn’t be going anywhere at the deadline and we all know how that turned out.  Teams need capable veteran leadership and while Larkin isn’t exactly a veteran, he’s pretty close to one on this team.  He’s also young enough to be part of that next core which is still probably a few years away.  It’s worth noting that he’s an unrestricted free agent in 2023 and if he gives an indication that he doesn’t want to stay, then yes, move him.  But that feels like a discussion to be had next summer when he’s eligible for a contract extension more than one that needs to happen now.

I’m not sure either Colorado or New York would be a perfect fit either.  If the Avs are able to keep Gabriel Landeskog and Philipp Grubauer (both pending UFAs), they’ll pretty much be capped out re-signing their own talent (which also includes Cale Makar as an RFA).  Is Detroit going to take a return centered around Nazem Kadri for Larkin?  Probably not.  As for the Rangers, Larkin is a good center but is he a true number one?  That’s what they need.  If he’s in that tier that’s slightly below a top center, they already have that in Mika Zibanejad, assuming they’re able to extend him.  Sure, he’d be an upgrade on Ryan Strome on a long-term basis but I feel their top trade chips should be saved for someone that can be more impactful offensively or at least be guaranteed to be around longer than two years, the remaining term of Larkin’s contract.

Joe422: Nobody ever knows what Lou is thinking but the Islanders need to free up cap space to sign their RFA and resign Cizikas. What does Lou do? Trade Nick Leddy? What would he get back? A 2nd and a 3rd round pick? Could you also see Jordan Eberle being left unprotected and Kyle Palmieri be re-signed for less annual $ than Eberle?

Let’s look at that cap situation first.  Per PuckPedia, they have about $75.7MM in commitments to 17 players with, as you noted, Casey Cizikas and Kyle Palmieri among the pending UFAs while Anthony Beauvillier and Ilya Sorokin are among the RFAs.  Even with Johnny Boychuk being eligible for LTIR (allowing them to spend up to $6MM past the cap), you’re absolutely correct in that they need to shed salary.

Leo Komarov and Andrew Ladd look like candidates to be full-season members with AHL Bridgeport, clearing up $1.125MM in space for each of them though those amounts are offset by needing to replace them with someone making close to the minimum.  Still, there’s a few hundred thousand in savings.  Cal Clutterbuck feels like another possible cap casualty, either through waivers or even a buyout.  He plays an important role but he’s way too expensive for that role.  Ross Johnston could also be waived and farmed out with someone making the minimum replacing him, saving $250K.

I expect Cizikas will return at a lower price tag than $3.35MM.  He will be sought after by a lot of teams but most teams can’t pay fourth liners that type of money and that includes the Islanders.  If the offers are near the $2MM mark, he’ll probably stay put.

I don’t see Palmieri sticking around for a couple of reasons.  The first is that I don’t think they’ll leave Eberle unprotected and even if they did, does Seattle find his $5.5MM price tag for three more years appealing?  The second is that I wouldn’t be surprised if Palmieri covets a bigger role than what he had with the Islanders as he was more of a middle-six player than a top-six one (and while both of those involve the second line, I think there’s a distinction between the two).

I agree that Leddy feels like a cap casualty but how strong is his market?  They’d have preferred to trade him instead of Devon Toews a year ago so they can’t expect to get a similar return as they got for Toews for Leddy now.  If there’s going to be an expansion casualty, I think it might be him.  I like Leddy and he’s a serviceable second-pairing defender.  However, this is not a good market to be dumping money and he also is at $5.5MM but just for one more year.  If I’m Seattle, Leddy’s contract is more attractive than Eberle’s if it came to that.  While they’d need to replace him, they should be able to re-sign Adam Pelech and a Leddy replacement for that money (plus Pelech’s previous $1.6MM AAV).

Sorokin looks like a candidate for a bridge deal to keep his cost down and if they go short-term with Beauvillier (even a one-year contract), they can keep the cost manageable.  With the other small cap savings, they should be able to stay cap compliant.

mikedickinson: $8 million seems insane for Hamilton. He looked lost when Slavin was out during the Nashville series. As a Canes fan, what could we expect for compensation? Also, if Dougie leaves, any chance we make a run at Jones, if he’d sign for less than Hamilton?

The one downside to doing what they did by letting his camp talk to teams is that it took away any possibility of doing what they did with Joel Edmundson last fall, flipping his rights to Montreal for a fifth-round pick.  Why trade for exclusive rights when you can already talk to him?  If Hamilton doesn’t really want an eighth year on his contract if the money isn’t as high as he wants, the sign-and-trade isn’t as important either; he can get his seven years from anyone.

I can’t see the return for Hamilton in an extend-and-trade deal being too substantial.  The acquiring team will probably send a contract back to help offset the money and Carolina will be compensated for taking that salary offset on in the form of a draft pick or prospect.  I know that sounds underwhelming but unless Hamilton goes to Carolina and gives them a list of a few teams to choose from, it’s going to be tough to get any sort of bidding war going.  That’s what drives the trade price up and without that element, they don’t have a lot of leverage.

Knowing the emphasis that Carolina puts on their back end, I wouldn’t rule out a run at Seth Jones entirely but that’s an in-division trade for Columbus and I doubt that’s their preference.  But yeah, I think they’d kick the tires at least and someone like Brady Skjei, who has three years left at a reasonable rate for a second-pairing player, could be of some interest to the Blue Jackets.  I suspect they want to send him out West if they can, however.

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sovietcanuckistanian: Given how Cam Neely just softly admitted they kind of botched the 2015 draft, how much shorter of a leash does Sweeney and his scouts have? I know not every team hits on all of their picks, but, the eye test tells me that teams like the late 90’s/early 2000’s Red Wings sustained their success by hitting on late-round gems. Also, is it just me or do the Bruins have an aversion (at least with early-round picks) to non-American-born/developed players?

A bad performance in the 2015 draft (saying they ‘kind of’ botched it is generous) shouldn’t really dramatically affect Sweeney’s fortunes all of a sudden.  This has been the known outcome for longer than a few weeks now; just look at Kyle Connor, Mathew Barzal, and Thomas Chabot’s performances.  This has been obvious for at least two or three years now so Neely’s public comment wasn’t exactly an indictment; it can’t be if everyone already knew that they didn’t draft well that year.

As for the scouts, being frustrated that they weren’t able to do like Detroit and hit on a bunch of late-round picks isn’t entirely fair either.  That’s not a viable model to expect.  You can strive for it but international scouting has come a long way in the last 20 years; there aren’t as many truly hidden gems as there once were.  No team, even the ones that have had good luck in the back of the draft, is operating under the goal of trying to do what Detroit did then.

Of the 20 picks they’ve made in the last four years, seven have been international picks which is a pretty high percentage so I don’t think there’s much of an aversion there.  However, to me, the biggest point of intrigue is their lack of CHL selections, just three since 2016 (and they all were in the same year, 2017).  Non-CHL picks get four years (or longer) of team control and that feels like a philosophical decision to try to let prospects marinate a little longer and then get them contributing pretty quickly thereafter.  Not many teams share that approach.  It’s also hard to fault the scouts when they’re averaging five picks per year over the last four years with only two of those coming in the top 50.  It’s hard to restock the pipeline with so few impact picks.  That’s the price you pay for justifiably trying to sustain a contender but it makes it hard to hit with fewer darts to throw, so to speak.

Long story short, 2015 alone doesn’t shorten the leash for anyone but the longer they don’t have sustained playoff success and aren’t adding much via the draft, it will start to get shorter but they’re not at that point yet.

wreckage: Lots of talk about how much cap the Oilers have to go into free agency with and how they could use it to help balance out their roster. But with some nice pieces coming up as prospects (Broberg, Bouchard, Samorukov, Berglund, McLeod, Marody, Benson, Lavoie, Savoie, etc.) could they explore trading from there to a cap-strapped club for a more established complement to McDavid or Draisaitl with term already attached instead? And if so, who do you see as possible targets?  Thanks.

As you note, Edmonton has a decent prospect core although some of those players have a lot more trade value than others.  There are only a couple on that list that would bring back the type of impact complementary player that you’re looking for and of those, does Edmonton really want to move Philip Broberg or Evan Bouchard right now?  They’re probably losing Tyson Barrie this summer, no one knows if Oscar Klefbom will be able to return to form, and Darnell Nurse is only a year away from UFA eligibility himself.  Dealing one of those promising young defenders for help on the wing could really come back to bite them later.

I don’t see a ton of financial wiggle room for them to add a long-term top-line piece up front unless they’re letting Ryan Nugent-Hopkins go and then that creates a second hole to try to fill.  They also have to be mindful of Nurse’s next contract which should be considerably higher than the $5.6MM it is now.  That’s not a factor for 2021-22 but thinking long-term, how many long-term, big-money contracts can they have on the books?  And by the time they re-sign or replace their pending free agents and get a starting goalie, they’re not going to have as much money as it may seem either.

But here’s the thing.  I don’t think they need to trade for a complementary player for McDavid and Draisaitl.  I don’t think they should want to, even.  The free agent market wasn’t kind to wingers a year ago and I see no reason for that to change this summer with the cap staying flat at $81.5MM.  You can get one of those players for less money in free agency than the $4MM or so that they’re getting paid on an existing contract and they don’t have to give anything up trade-wise to get a free agent either.  GM Ken Holland should use the market to his advantage; there are bargains to be had and the allure of playing with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl has to help as well.  Look what they did with Barrie; that can be done again with a forward.

They won’t have a ton of money to spend on that piece, especially if they’re able to make a much-needed longer-term move between the pipes but if the market plays out as it did a year ago, they shouldn’t need a lot of money to find the right fit in free agency in a move that would cost less on the cap than a trade.  Accordingly, I can’t give you a list of possible trade targets – it’s an empty one.

@paolo7503: What moves do you think Fletcher will do to improve Philly’s team? I think at least three moves need to be made. Do you agree? (Moves = trade and FA signing.)

Three impact moves are a lot in an offseason when moving high-priced players will be tricky.  If they lose one of Voracek or van Riemsdyk as I predicted earlier, that gives them some extra flexibility although they’d need to replace them and that wouldn’t even count towards upgrading the team.

Can we call a backup/platoon goalie as one of the moves?  They need to move on from Brian Elliott and with the year Carter Hart had, they’d be wise to shop towards the higher end of the backup goalie market which probably puts them in the $3MM range.  If they sign a replacement for whichever winger they lose, that’s where the rest of the savings from that move goes.

Let’s assume Hart and Travis Sanheim eat up about half of the remaining cap space which would mean they’d cost around $7MM combined.  (That might be on the low side as well.)  By the time they fill out the roster, there isn’t much money left.

Shayne Gostisbehere had a nice finish to his season; is that enough to flip him for a similarly-priced defenseman that’s more of a defensive presence?  I think that’s possible so let’s call that a second move.  Nolan Patrick appears to want a change of scenery but can they find a low-cost replacement in a trade for him?  If so, let’s call that the third move.

I suspect you were hoping for bigger moves than that as those aren’t going to drastically turn their fortunes around.  But with Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier a year away from needing new deals, I doubt GM Chuck Fletcher is looking to make some big splashes knowing those contracts are soon up for renewal.  They’ll do a couple of moves – most teams do – but it may not be an overly busy summer for Philadelphia.

Red Wings: Any news on Laine to Panthers rumors? I don’t like his attitude but if you put him with fellow Finn Barkov that could be amazing.

This feels more like wishful thinking speculation than a real rumor.  Florida wants to entice Aleksander Barkov to re-sign; what better way to make that happen by getting a high-scoring winger who happens to be from the same country?  Sure, it wouldn’t hurt their chances of extending Barkov but what’s in it for Columbus?

Yes, Laine had a bad year with the Blue Jackets.  It’s one that makes a long-term contract difficult but I don’t see any reason for them to give up on him so quickly.  And even if they did, they’d want to do a move similar to the one they made to get him, a star player for a star player.  Who is Florida parting with from that category?  They’re not moving Barkov and they probably aren’t moving Jonathan Huberdeau.  As far as forwards go, that’s the list that Columbus would be interested in for Laine.

Sure, adding Laine could help re-sign Barkov in theory but there’s really no viable trade to be made to get him to Florida.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

10 comments

PHR Mailbag: Tocchet, Expansion, Jones, Eichel, Buffalo’s Coaching Search, Maple Leafs, Ristolainen, Blue Jackets, Flames, Bruins

June 19, 2021 at 1:56 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

There were plenty of questions to get to in this edition of the PHR Mailbag.  Topics include Rick Tocchet’s coaching candidacy, expansion rules, a possible fit for Philadelphia’s back end, Jack Eichel’s future, the coaching search in Buffalo, Toronto’s past GM move, the recent Rasmus Ristolainen to New Jersey rumor, the offseason ahead for Columbus and Calgary, and a Boston free agent scenario.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

pitmanrich: What has Rick Tocchet done in his head coaching career to warrant the interviews he’s had so far? (Rangers, Columbus, and Seattle.) His teams regularly miss the playoffs, he’s got an overall losing record, am I missing something? Surely there are more deserving coaches out there.

I am a little surprised that Tocchet has had the interest he has since parting ways with Arizona.  As you note, his track record wasn’t great with Tampa Bay or Arizona; a 178-200-60 record over six seasons with one bubble playoff appearance isn’t inspiring on the surface.

However, his reputation is that of being a good communicator and that is something that teams are showing more and more interest in.  The days of one approach fits all are dwindling fast and in both of his head coaching stints, Tocchet was lauded for how he can relate to players.  The same was said for his time as an assistant which helped him get that opportunity with the Coyotes.

It’s also worth noting that he’s coming from an environment that has leaned heavy on analytics.  Seattle appears to be a team that’s highly investing on that front so someone like Tocchet that is familiar with some of those concepts would be a bit more appealing.  And considering he has now had three interviews with them per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (Twitter link), he has to be considered as a legitimate contender for that position.

If you’re a team that’s looking for experience but don’t want one of the ‘old school’ veterans like Mike Babcock, Claude Julien, John Tortorella, or Bruce Boudreau (to name a few), Tocchet is in that next range.  He has a different reputation than those bench bosses but still has a fair bit of experience – six years as a head coach and six more as an assistant.  That’s typically enough to garner some interviews.  If he doesn’t wind up with one of the remaining vacancies, he will undoubtedly come up as a strong candidate to take over a team midseason or next summer as a result.

mz90gu: How many games does an RFA have to play to be ineligible to be picked by the Kraken?

Free agency status doesn’t actually have an impact here.  Any unsigned draft pick or players with two years or less on an NHL contract are exempt while everyone else is eligible.  If you’re thinking about the games played criterion we’ve been citing in our Expansion Primer series, at least two signed forwards and one signed defenseman must have played either 27 games this season or 54 over the past two years combined.

However, players that have been signed for more than two years that haven’t played that many games are still eligible for selection; it doesn’t exempt them.  Teams merely have to expose that many players under contract.  As long as they’ve been under contract for longer than two seasons, restricted free agents are eligible to be picked by the Kraken.

Black Ace57: Is there any way to make a Seth Jones to the Flyers trade work?

It depends on how hesitant Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen is on trading a core player within the division.  If he doesn’t want to send a top defender to a division rival, that’s pretty much the end of that idea.  But that’s not very fun for a mailbag answer, is it?

On the surface, Jones isn’t a great fit considering that the Flyers have pretty good depth on the left side.  But it stands to reason that some of that depth would probably need to go the other way.  I don’t see Ivan Provorov being available in this scenario but Travis Sanheim is the type of player that should be of some interest to the Blue Jackets, a young defender with a couple of years of team control left.  That’d be an interesting piece.

I also wonder if they’d be open to moving Morgan Frost who hasn’t pushed his way into a regular role just yet.  A lot depends on if they can get extensions done for Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier; if they got them done early, Frost would potentially be expendable.  With the Blue Jackets’ situation down the middle, Frost would be of some interest.

Is that enough to get a trade done?  Perhaps not but that should be a reasonable starting point.  I suspect that they’re not looking for long-term future talent and instead would prefer guys that are ready now or close to being ready.  A rebuild is on the horizon but I don’t think they plan to go deep enough into one where a first-rounder that’s four or five years away fits the timeline.

We saw Carolina give Dougie Hamilton permission to talk to teams early about a sign-and-trade.  Jones is in a bit of a different situation in that he has one more year left at $5.4MM but since he doesn’t want to entertain an extension, he’s heading for an eventual exit.  If an extended Jones brought a better return, it would be prudent for Kekalainen to at least explore that option.

Busta607: Malkin and a 1st round pick for Eichel?

jeffh: What are the chances of the Ducks landing Eichel? I feel like they have the assets, but will them not being willing to move Zegras or Drysdale remove the possibility?

Also, who do you think the Ducks go for if they don’t land Eichel?

Let’s combine the Eichel questions together.  For the Pittsburgh proposal, there are a couple of hiccups.  The first is that is that they don’t have a first-round pick this year, particularly an early one which seems to be the expectation.  The second is that Evgeni Malkin has a no-move clause and there’s no reason for him to waive it to go to a bottom-feeder in the Eastern Conference.

On top of that, Malkin is only a year away from free agency and turns 35 next month.  Is that what a rebuilding team should be trading their franchise forward for?  Pittsburgh isn’t a great fit for Eichel; he’ll be heading somewhere else.

As for Anaheim, they definitely seem to be in the mix and have the high first-round pick (third overall) that gives them an edge on other potential suitors.  It will be difficult to do it with Jamie Drysdale or Trevor Zegras but that first rounder should yield a similar caliber of player if they’re willing to part with it.  If not, I don’t think they have much of a chance.  There are some other young pieces that should still have some value as a secondary element (Sam Steel, Isac Lundestrom, and Max Jones come to mind) and then some cap ballast (someone like Adam Henrique at $5.825MM).  If that third pick is in play, they have to be considered one of the contenders for Eichel.

As for who else they might go after?  It’s a pretty broad list – basically anyone that can score.  Anaheim needs several top-six upgrades and they’re not in a position to be too selective.  If a top-six player is available, they’ll be inquiring.

sabres3277: At this point, the Sabres coaching search seems to be centered on keeping Don Granato or hiring former Ranger coach David Quinn. Any thoughts on what direction they should take?? It is desperation time in Buffalo.

I don’t think either would necessarily be a bad choice given their situation.  Let’s face it, the Sabres aren’t looking for someone who is magically going to turn things around.  At least, they shouldn’t be.  They’re no closer to becoming contenders than they were years ago.  There are pieces in place but one of them looks like he’s about to be moved and it’s unlikely they’ll want win-now players in return.  What they need is someone that can raise the floor for the group and work on individual skill development.  A few years from now when they’re ready to contend (if all goes well), they’d probably be looking for that win-now coach at the same time.

Granato did a nice job down the stretch but it has to come with the caveat that it came at the end of the year when the games were meaningless.  Quinn, meanwhile, had some good moments with the Rangers but it’s telling that several of their youngsters didn’t progress as much as they would have hoped which is part of the reason they missed the playoffs and he’s on the look for another job.  That might be a bit of a red flag but he had success in college developing young players so that has to be kept in mind as well.  I’d lean towards Granato but I think Quinn would certainly help their program as well.

KAR 120C: When comparing Lou Lamoriello to Kyle Dubas, was it a mistake for Toronto to try new analytics versus old experience?  Considering where the Islanders are and the Leafs are not.

I can’t say it was a huge mistake based on analytics.  Not every team can be built the same way and who knows, a couple of years from now, the tide could have shifted drastically towards skill and they’ll be sitting pretty while the Isles are languishing a bit.

For me, the biggest difference would have been salary cap management.  I can’t see Lamoriello giving any of Toronto’s top-four forwards the contracts they have now, ones that are viewed as more player-friendly.  I think John Tavares wouldn’t have been signed and the savings between that and cheaper short-term contracts for the other three would have given them the cap flexibility to bolster their back end and lengthen out their forward corps.  In hindsight, that might have given them a better shot at playoff success than what they’ve had since then.  To me, that’s a bigger issue than the usage of analytics.

Having said that, it’s also important to keep in mind that other teams were sniffing around Dubas; he wasn’t going to stay an assistant GM for much longer.  Lamoriello’s GM contract was up and he was 75 at the time.  Dubas was 32.  Mark Hunter was also in the mix as well at the time.  From an asset management standpoint, the safer play was to keep the up-and-coming executive which is what they did.

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JoeBad34TD: How true are the rumors that the Devils are interested in Rasmus Ristolainen Right-Hand D, and what could the Sabres get in Return?  (I would love to see Miles Wood as part of a deal.)

Both Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman have reported there’s something to that rumor so I see no reason to say there’s nothing there.  It’s certainly an odd fit on the surface, however, as New Jersey already has P.K. Subban and Damon Severson on the right side and both are top-four defenders.  Adding a third pushes one down and greatly improves the third pairing but it’s a short-term fix with Subban and Ristolainen both being unrestricted free agents next summer.  Perhaps they want to see if Ristolainen could be Subban’s long-term replacement but can they get Ristolainen to agree to an extension?

The answer to that question determines the answer of what they could get in return.  An extended Ristolainen is worth more than a rental at this time of the offseason.  I would think Will Butcher would be in there for money reasons and as far as a change of scenery candidate goes, he’s a good one that could rebound on a new team.  I don’t think they’d part with Wood for a rental, however.  The second piece would be a younger forward (someone like Nolan Foote) and probably a draft pick.  That’s not a great return but he’s a disgruntled rental; the Sabres aren’t in the drivers’ seat here.

While I believe that there have been talks, I’m not sure Ristolainen is the right fit for New Jersey and with the year he had, I wouldn’t be surprised if those talks were focused on buying low, not paying full value for him.  And with Ristolainen wanting to go to a winning program, I don’t see him turning down a shot at free agency to join a team that has spun its wheels in recent years as well.

@CinnamonTroll2: What the hell will the #CBJ accomplish this off-season?  Will fans be pleased, satisfied, or disappointed?

I don’t think it’s going to be a fun summer for the Blue Jackets.  I get the promotion of Brad Larsen to the head coaching position under the same principle I just went over for Buffalo.  He’s not the coach of the future when they’re in contention but rather the one that helps players develop to get them to that point.  He knows the players and the program.  It’s underwhelming but it works.

From a personnel perspective, the word underwhelming also comes to mind.  One of their goalies probably needs to go as both Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo want to be number ones which means one of them is walking in free agency a year from now.  But goalies rarely yield sizable returns in trades.  They’re going to go after a top center as they have for years but Buffalo seems to want to move Eichel out West.  Maybe another becomes available in a trade but having gone all in a couple of years ago, the cupboard isn’t overly deep to deal from.  They’ll have the money to add in free agency which could give them a small leg up but knowing they’re in for some struggles, that may not be as helpful as you might hope.  The hope was that Patrik Laine would be a long-term solution but with the year he had, it feels like a one-year deal is on the horizon to see if a new coach changes things.

Long story short, I’ll go with the latter of your three options.  I expect it’ll be a tough summer in Columbus.

wreckage: Do the Flames actually break up their core and trade a significant piece this offseason or just “retool” again?

I don’t see how GM Brad Treliving can get away with tweaking around the edges again.  Yes, Jacob Markstrom was a big addition last fall and I think he’ll be better next year but this is a core that is decent but not good enough to do much damage.  Darryl Sutter’s hiring was supposed to light a fire under the Flames but they were still mediocre, just a bit better defensively along the way.  Improved play in their own end is all well and good but that’s not putting them over the top.

That said, I don’t expect a lot of changes to be made either as this isn’t a situation where they want to just swap long-term fixtures for the sake of making a change.  I could see Johnny Gaudreau being moved if they can’t work out an extension and we know Sean Monahan is in play already.  One of them moving seems like a reasonable expectation at the very least.  That alone won’t drastically shake things up but it would be a good starting point.

SkidRowe: If the Bruins pass on both Hall and Krejci, who should they acquire via UFA or trade to replace them?  What surprising names might be available this offseason due to cap constraints?

First off, I don’t see them passing on both Taylor Hall and David Krejci.  At this point, I think both of them re-sign; there’s mutual interest for new deals for both of them.  Krejci will be taking a pay cut and while Hall will cost more against the cap for Boston next year than he did this season (Buffalo retained half of his $8MM price tag), the savings from Krejci should cover most (if not all) of that.

But let’s say they don’t come back in this scenario.  I could see them taking runs at Gabriel Landeskog and Phillip Danault if they make it to the open market.  Landeskog in more of a support role works under the same idea that Hall does while Danault’s addition would take some defensive pressure off Patrice Bergeron.  Danault won’t score a lot of points but it’s not a great UFA market for centers out there and he’s the best of the group.  They could also take that money and try to add on the left side of the back end although it’s not a great UFA market on that front either.

Tampa Bay will have to move a couple of forwards this summer which has players like Ondrej Palat and Alex Killorn (players with only partial trade restrictions) on the bubble.  If Vegas keeps both goalies and wants to retain Alec Martinez, Jonathan Marchessault could be in play.  Knowing that San Jose can’t move their defensemen to free up money and that Timo Meier has an ugly qualifying offer coming in two years, I wouldn’t be shocked if he was in trade speculation at some point.

But to get back to your original point, I don’t think it comes to that for Boston.  I suspect they’ll get deals for Hall and Krejci done and will bring this core back with the biggest change coming between the pipes with Tuukka Rask being a free agent and injured for at least the first half of next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

June 18, 2021 at 5:45 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 31 Comments

We’re now down to just four teams involved in the Stanley Cup chase, meaning the offseason has started for the vast majority of the NHL. Things are heating up with Dougie Hamilton allowed to speak to other teams, Seth Jones telling the Blue Jackets he won’t re-sign right now, and Jack Eichel still seeming likely to split with the Buffalo Sabres.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. In the first part, Brian La Rose gave his thoughts on the Department of Player Safety, the future of Phil Kessel, and the aggressiveness of the Philadelphia front office. In the second, he gave us a Stanley Cup prediction, shared his thoughts on the Eichel situation, and projected the first few picks of the upcoming draft.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.

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PHR Mailbag: Cup Prediction, Georgiev, Messier, Eichel, Prospects, Mock Draft

May 29, 2021 at 2:55 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a prediction of the Stanley Cup winner, Alexandar Georgiev’s future with the Rangers, a thought on Mark Messier in New York, Jack Eichel trade talk, power forward prospects, and an early mock draft.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

lapcheung39: Do you see Tampa Bay will repeat as champion this year; if not, who do you see as a dark horse to win it all?

First, that was quite an entertaining series they had against Florida.  The fact that the Lightning played well against a team that really mixed it up physically bodes well for them, a team that is tacitly viewed as more of a finesse group.  However, even though I see them squeaking by Carolina in the second round, I don’t think they’re the favorite to win the Stanley Cup.

I suspect I’m hardly the only one in this camp but whoever wins the Colorado-Vegas series is my pick to win it all.  Those two teams are in win-now mode with rosters that don’t have many flaws and they know that their best chance is now with the flat cap and pending free agents.  (I know Tampa Bay is in a similar boat as well.)  I have the Avalanche getting through the Golden Knights so they’d be my pick.  I know that’s hardly a dark horse but I don’t think there is one.

CoachWall: Any chance the Rangers include Georgiev in a trade for a center and bring “The King” back to mentor/back up Igor? It would give Henry a way to get a proper send-off before #30 takes its rightful place in the rafters.

Let’s address a quick CBA note here in that there is nothing preventing New York from doing this if they wanted to.  Players that are bought out can sign back with the team that bought them out (Calgary’s Michael Stone being the most recent example).

But even though they can, I don’t think they want to do that, nor should they.  If the inclusion of Georgiev helps land an impact center, that’d be great.  I don’t think he carries enough value to be a key piece of such a trade but in a bigger deal, I could see him being included.

But that doesn’t mean Lundqvist should be the target.  He hasn’t played this season after undergoing open-heart surgery which means he will have gone about 14 months between game action between the bubble and the start of next year.  It’s also important to remember that his numbers in his final season with New York weren’t particularly great and were below average for a backup.

I agree that Igor Shesterkin could benefit from a veteran backup who can help mentor him but the Rangers need someone that’s a little more reliable and doesn’t come with as many question marks in terms of health.  For as talented as Shesterkin is, he has all of 48 career NHL games under his belt and we appear to be heading for an 82-game season in 2021-22.  If I’m GM Chris Drury, I’m looking for someone that I’m comfortable handing 35-40 starts to next season.  It’d make for a fantastic story but I don’t think that Lundqvist can handle that workload at the age of 39, at least to the point of giving them above-average backup goaltending.

The good news is that a lot of the other veteran free agent goalies out there should be able to handle that type of action so if they do move Georgiev this summer, there will be several viable options to turn to.

@flaguy12: Any chance if the Rangers interviewing Mark Messier for their head coaching job?

Is there a chance they’re interviewing Messier?  Sure.  I’d even go as far as saying they’re likely to talk to him considering his comments earlier this month when he said he was “standing by ready to help out” following the firings of Jeff Gorton and John Davidson.  But as a head coach?  I’d be shocked.

Messier dabbled in coaching a decade ago, heading up Canada’s entries into the Deutschland and Spengler Cups.  He also has a couple of stints as an assistant coach with peewee teams.  That’s the extent of his coaching background.  That’s not enough to make him a credible candidate to be an NHL coach, let alone a head coach.

If they do speak with Messier, I wouldn’t be surprised if a role similar to the Senior Advisor post he held a decade ago with the team.  If he had any intention of being in a full-time NHL role somewhere, his name would have popped up for opportunities somewhere over the past several years.  Accordingly, a part-time role makes more sense for him which would be as an advisor or some sort of player development coach.

sabres3277: Do you believe that the Sabres will trade Eichel? If so, what team would be the best landing spot to bring the Sabres the best return? And what kind of return are the Sabres looking at?

It has been a tough stretch in Buffalo for the past several years and to be honest, I don’t see a lot of hope on the horizon for them.  That’s not at all a shot at Jack Eichel either but the supporting cast isn’t good enough and the rotating door of coaches and general managers doesn’t help either.  He’s one more season away from having the ability to veto a move when his no-move clause kicks in.  I don’t get the sense he’s going to be happier with the Sabres a year from now, especially with the current issue of wanting surgery that the team won’t sign off on.  Even with that lingering procedure, it certainly feels as if they have a better shot at getting more for him this summer than next offseason when he can limit the market.  Accordingly, I do believe that Eichel will be on the move.

I don’t know how willing the Kings are to commit to three players making at least $10MM on their payroll when they’re a non-playoff team but on paper, they match up well.  Buffalo needs a top young center in a trade.  Los Angeles has Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, and Gabriel Vilardi as recent first-round picks.  They don’t have extra first-round picks but have extra picks in the next two rounds this summer which makes it a bit easier to part with their top selection.  They also have ample cap space which means they don’t have to match money.  That’s a strong foundation of a deal right there.

The Rangers have been long speculated as a landing spot but their package would have to be based on young defensemen more than a center as part of the reason New York would be in the hunt here is that youngsters like Filip Chytil and Brett Howden haven’t established themselves as top-six fits.  I don’t know if the fit is as good and it’s a deal where money would need to be matched beyond the inclusion of Ryan Strome.  I’ll toss in a dark horse team as well, the Blue Jackets.  If Buffalo really likes one of Joonas Korpisalo or Elvis Merzlikins and that goalie is willing to sign, that could give them their starter for the foreseeable future, a core piece.  They have three first-round picks at their disposal and could add someone like Max Domi to give him another fresh start although they don’t need to match money either.  There are some pieces to work with for an offer there.

I can see this being a four or five-piece package.  A young core player that’s either signed long-term or under team control for four or five years (Eichel has five years left on his deal).  There needs to be a top prospect in there and probably a first-round pick or comparable prospect.  The rest will be taking a player or two back for cap purposes.  That’s a higher price than Ryan O’Reilly but Eichel is in a higher tier.  O’Reilly is quite good but Eichel is a franchise player.  They need to demand a huge return and even in a flat-cap market, they should be able to get it.

Pieters: Which prospects would have the best chance of being the next Brady Tkachuk (i.e., scoring forward that’s not afraid to mix it up)?

That’s a very rare combination to try to match which is part of the reason Tkachuk went as high as he did (fourth overall in 2016).  There frankly hasn’t been one like him since then which makes this rather challenging to answer.

I think players like Matt Boldy (MIN) and Samuel Poulin (PIT) could fit the bill offensively.  Boldy hasn’t had a chance to throw his weight around much in college but I think as he fills out, he’ll have a bigger willingness to get engaged physically.  I’m not sure that means he’ll drop the gloves a ton but there should be a physicality element in time and he should score enough to be in the top six.  Poulin has shown the offensive skill in junior that could translate to the pros but he already is a particularly physical player and undoubtedly will be highly valued by Pittsburgh’s new management team.  If he puts it all together, he could fit that bill.

One other wildcard that comes to mind is Jake Neighbours (STL).  I’m not convinced that his offensive ceiling is as high as Tkachuk’s but he could be a 15-20-goal player that drops the gloves from time to time while being able to mix it up in the corners.

If you’re looking at this and thinking that none of these players are like Tkachuk, you’re right.  They’re not.  But part of what makes Tkachuk or any other power forward of that ilk (think Milan Lucic and Wayne Simmonds in their primes) is that the combination of physicality and offensive skill is so hard to get; they don’t come around often.  There are players with similar offensive games but don’t throw their weight around as much.  There are more players willing to engage in the corners and play rough but lack the offensive upside to play in the top six.  Rarely do you see both in the same player.

Tkachuk may not have the overall offensive upside as some of the others that went behind him in that draft but with everything else he brings to the table, the Sens believed he’d be more valuable.  That belief has been rewarded so far.

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SpeakOfTheDevil: Ok Scenario Time, Little Bit Of A Top 10 Mock Draft

Assuming Nobody Moves Up Or Down In The Lottery And The Picks Remain As They Are Right Now Based Off Of Record And Nobody Trades Their Picks.

Who Is The Absolute Best Player That The Teams At Those Picks Can Make?

1. Buffalo 2. Anaheim 3. Seattle 4. New Jersey 5. Columbus 6. Detroit 7. San Jose 8. Los Angeles 9. Vancouver 10. Ottawa

I haven’t done a lot of draft prep yet with it being a month later than usual so I’ll add the caveat that some of these could change between now and the draft, regardless of what happens in the draft lottery.  With that said, here’s how it looks now:

Buffalo: Owen Power, D – If he puts it all together, he’s a number one defenseman with size and skill.  Those are really hard to come by and while he plays the same side as Rasmus Dahlin, I think that works better for the Sabres rather than having them potentially on the same pairing down the road.

Anaheim: Matthew Beniers, C – What does Anaheim need more than anything?  Scoring.  They also could stand to add down the middle to partner up with Trevor Zegras, especially with Isac Lundestrom looking more like a role player than a top-six piece.

Seattle: Luke Hughes, D – Like his brother Quinn, he is capable of lighting up the scoresheet.  Unlike his brothers (Jack being the other), he has the size that many teams covet as well.  If they wind up with a surplus of defense in the expansion draft, having Hughes have a season in college would be a good idea.

New Jersey: Brandt Clarke, D – I think Clarke has enough of an offensive game to hold his own on a top pairing and the potential to have a good enough defensive game to keep him there.  He’s not as highly rated by some others but I think the ceiling is higher than other defenders on the board.  (No, the fact his brother is in their system didn’t influence this either.)

Columbus: Dylan Guenther, RW – While I don’t advocate drafting for need in most circumstances, if they get an indication that one of their top defenders are leaving, I’d switch this to a defenseman.  Since we don’t know that for certain, I’ll go with Guenther who gives them some offensive upside in a pipeline that doesn’t have a lot of it.

Detroit: Simon Edvinsson, D – Whoever takes Edvinsson is going to be projecting a lot from his offensive upside.  He should be a high-end shutdown defender at a minimum, giving him a nice floor.

San Jose: William Eklund, LW – He produced at the U-18 level, at the U-20 level, and had an impressive rookie season in the SHL this year.  He’s undersized but if he can put up the points, the Sharks won’t mind.

Los Angeles: Kent Johnson, C – I know, the last thing they need is a center but I’m not a fan of drafting for need.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Kings move one of their young pivots before long and Johnson should be a couple of years away from turning pro.  There’s room for him in the long run.

Vancouver: Chaz Lucius, C – He’s more of a scorer than a passer which is a bit odd for a center but there is definitely top-six upside regardless.  The Canucks have some good set-up guys already but could use more scoring pop and Lucius could provide that.

Ottawa: Jesper Wallstedt, G – The Sens have taken several goalies in recent years but they don’t have a true number one in their system.  That’s the one thing they’re lacking in the pipeline and Wallstedt, one of the more highly-touted goalies lately, would fill that.  He’s a few years away but they still have Matt Murray signed for three more seasons so they can afford to be patient.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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PHR Mailbag: Player Safety, Compliance Buyouts, Kessel, Summer Shakeups, Predators, Flyers, Officiating

May 22, 2021 at 1:56 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Department of Player Safety, the possibility of compliance buyouts, a creative Arizona trade idea, teams that could be heading for a sizable shakeup, Nashville’s regular season struggles, Philadelphia’s offseason, and NHL officiating.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

pawtucket: How would you fix the Department of Player Safety and its obvious flaws and inconsistencies?

When it comes to its flaws, I’m not sure everyone in the league and the NHL Players Association necessarily sees it that way.  I’m not going to weigh in on the Tom Wilson incident which is what I suspect led to this question aside from noting that the view of general managers who were willing to speak off the record about it was hardly unanimous.  I’m fairly confident the same can be said of the players as well.  If someone wants to see stiffer discipline handed out, there is someone else who likes things the way there are now.  That makes meaningful changes hard to accomplish.

The fine system has largely been ridiculed given its lack of teeth but that’s how both sides (the NHL and NHLPA) seem to want it.  The threshold for levying a fine without a disciplinary hearing is $5K and is collectively bargained (Section 18 for anyone who wants to look up the details).  That’s why most fines have been for that amount; it’s the most they can give without calling a hearing.  It can actually be higher (up to $15K for multiple fines in a 12-month period) but a hearing would have to happen each time.  If they want it to be higher, it needs to be agreed upon in the CBA.  They just extended the CBA and didn’t touch it.  Until a large percentage of players and league executives believe things need to change, they’re not going to change.

As to what I might change?  That’s a hard one as the ideas I have certainly have flaws to them but here they are.  Having an independent party make the decision could be more objective than an NHL employee but that would cost more money and chances are, the league would be more hesitant to refer matters to that independent person which would mean even more of the current system.  Maybe some sort of panel makes a ruling – one with a league representative, an NHLPA representative, and one other party (perhaps a former player).  Each makes their ruling and the suspension or fine becomes the average or median amount of those three.  I’ll admit, that’s not a great system either but in terms of changes that I can think of, those are the ones that come to mind.

Joe422: With so many teams up against the salary cap… is there any chance the league allows a compliance buyout this offseason? And if yes, we know Ladd, Neal, etc will be bought out but what surprise names could we see?

If there was going to be a compliance buyout that was allowed, it would have been last year when teams were caught off guard by the cap flattening out instead of continuing to increase.  Everyone has now had a season to operate under the new system and have signed contracts knowing what the new economic reality is.  And while there are some large-market, cap-strapped teams that would welcome the ability for a cap-exempt buyout, there are others that want to see those teams suffer, for lack of a better term.  I’d be surprised if one was allowed this summer.

But, just for fun, a name that came to mind that might be viewed as a surprise when I saw this question was Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky.  He has not fared well with the Panthers; a .902 SV% wasn’t what they were expecting when they gave him $10MM a year for seven years.  They have Spencer Knight who is their goalie of the future.  Clearing Bobrovsky’s deal off the books would also allow them to be able to afford to re-sign pending UFA Chris Driedger, bring in a veteran backup/platoon option, and still come out with cap and real dollar savings.  GM Bill Zito isn’t the GM who gave Bobrovsky the contract so there’s no situation where the GM isn’t willing to admit his mistake – it was Dale Tallon who made it.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Could Arizona expose Phil Kessel for the draft, then give up an asset to trade to get him back after the $5MM signing bonus has been paid?

Technically, this is legal, sort of.  In the Vegas draft, teams were allowed to trade back for the players that they lost and a few of those teams went down that road but couldn’t work something out.  However, as Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic noted back in 2017 (Twitter link), it can’t be part of a pre-arranged transaction.  Assuming that the purpose of this is to have Seattle repay Kessel’s July 1 signing bonus to Arizona (which is how it technically would work), that certainly feels like a pre-arranged transaction.  They’d have to get a little creative as a result.

For a deal to not appear as pre-arranged, some time would need to elapse before Arizona would re-acquire Kessel.  I’m thinking a couple of months or more with the deal coming just before (or during) training camp.  By then, the Coyotes could plausibly argue that they were unable to replace him in free agency or the trade market and having had time to re-assess their team, now believe that they need to bring him back (and would be paying a fairly significant cost to do so).  Is losing a good pick/prospect or two and potentially drawing the ire of the league worth saving $5MM in costs?  Even with their financial situation, I’m not sure they’d see it that way but I like the creative thinking.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What teams if they are eliminated in Round 1 can you see making big changes this offseason?

For example, if Edmonton is eliminated in Round 1, do they shake up their core outside of Leon, Connor and Darnell?

Edmonton certainly seems like the obvious choice to be bolder in their team building.  The forward depth isn’t the greatest which is a by-product of having players like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on their roster.  Their defense isn’t elite by any stretch either.  I don’t think they’d move one of McDavid, Draisaitl, or Darnell Nurse but I don’t think there would be many untouchables beyond those three either.  If they go down to Winnipeg with the offense continuing to sputter, GM Ken Holland will have a hard time justifying keeping things the way they are now.

Washington also stands out as a possibility and with them down 3-1 to Boston, them losing also stands out as a possibility.  It has been a weird year for them and it certainly feels like Evgeny Kuznetsov’s time with them could be in jeopardy.  Any time a center of his caliber becomes available, that’s shaking up the core.  If they wind up exposing and losing T.J. Oshie to Seattle as some have speculated, that would be another big change to their core group.

Gbear: Despite getting into the playoffs, the Predators have been awful at shot suppression, shot creation and special teams throughout John Hynes’ tenure as coach. Is merely squeezing into the playoffs reason to allow him to keep his job in Nashville?

Related to that, it would seem that if any team needed to make a play for Jack Eichel, it would be Nashville. Would it not be reasonable for GM Poile to offer up two first-rounders, and any of their prospects not named Tomasino or Farrance for him?

Speaking of a team that could try to shake things up with a first-round exit, Nashville would certainly qualify as well.  They’ve been sputtering for a while now and it’s clear the composition of players they have don’t work in terms of maximizing their individual talents.  A swap of high-priced underachievers is one of the ways that teams can make moves without creating cap problems as long as the deals are similarly priced and the Predators look like a prime candidate to do that.

The hiring of Hynes was a little surprising at the time and frankly was underwhelming as nothing he had done in New Jersey suggested he was a ‘must-hire before anyone else gets a chance to get him’ coach.  But it wouldn’t be fair to just lay it at his feet as the core wasn’t exactly doing much under Peter Laviolette either.  I think it’s more of a roster composition issue than a coaching one at this point.  And for what it’s worth, Hynes has only been behind the bench for 84 regular season games, barely one full season.  Coaches, especially ones that they moved quickly to get like they did, typically get a longer leash than that, playoff success or not.

As for targeting Eichel, sure, they’d be wise to show interest in him.  However, the cost to get a franchise player is going to be considerably higher than a couple of first-round picks that will be near the middle of the round and some prospects that aren’t at the top of their pool.  Eichel will be looked at in more detail next week but if Buffalo isn’t getting elite talent in return, they shouldn’t be moving him.  That package isn’t going to yield elite talent.

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@paolo7503: How aggressive do you think Chuck Fletcher will be this offseason?

I know there’s an expectation of big changes coming in Philadelphia after they had a particularly tough year.  But given their own cap situation and a flat cap environment, I’m not sure they’re going to be able to make the significant changes some are hoping for.

Let’s look at what the Flyers are up against cap-wise.  Per CapFriendly, they have roughly $69MM in commitments for next season already.  That may provide the appearance of some wiggle room but with that remaining $12MM or so, they need to sign a goalie tandem (Carter Hart is a restricted free agent and Brian Elliott unrestricted) and re-sign Travis Sanheim who is owed a $3.25MM qualifying offer.  That will take up most of that wiggle room with the rest going towards filling out the rest of the roster.

Can they convince Seattle to take someone like James van Riemsdyk and his $7MM price tag off their hands?  It’s not that van Riemsdyk is a bad player but that’s an above-market contract and clearing that off the books would give them the ability to shake things up more.  Failing that, I expect they’ll be one of the teams whose big changes may just be swapping out bad contracts.

So, to answer your question, I think he’ll be aggressive this summer.  I’m just not sure that aggression will amount to much in the way of notable changes given their cap situation.

KAR 120C: Officiating is always a point of contention. What can be done to legitimately make referees not “manage” the game. It seems like equalizing bad calls is normal or ignoring calls to keep the game going.  Most pro sports do not seem to suffer this as much as the NHL.

The questions about the quality of officiating is hardly unique to the NHL.  Name a professional sport and there are complaints about the officials.  As for game management, similar accusations have been levied at basketball and baseball in particular.  There isn’t really a whole lot that can be done about it though.  The league can’t start publicly releasing a report card of sorts similar to the NBA’s Last Two Minutes Report without the support of the NHL Officials Association and that doesn’t seem likely to happen; they don’t want some of their members getting singled out negatively if it can be avoided.  They can be instructed to not manage the game – they already have been – but there isn’t much recourse the league has if that direction isn’t followed.

In terms of objective criteria, officials are evaluated in terms of made and missed calls which plays a role in who gets playoff assignments and who gets to move on beyond that.  But it’s not as if there are a bunch of referees in the minors and lower ranks that are ready to step up to the NHL on a full-time basis where they could start letting ones go that don’t have passing grades.  Like players, officials take some time to develop as well and lately, they’ve been trying to integrate some younger referees in but the pipeline takes time to restock, so to speak.

Like players sitting back with a lead, a lot of referees have a tendency to try to balance things out or manage situations.  Coaches don’t tell the players to sit back and no one is telling the officials to equalize things.  But it’s ingrained in them.  Instituting a challenge system for made or missed penalty calls is something some would like to see but that isn’t going to really affect the game management that you’re concerned about either.  I don’t want to say that there is no viable solution but I don’t really see a big fix that will drastically change things.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

May 21, 2021 at 3:10 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 14 Comments

The playoffs have begun, even though the 2020-21 regular season isn’t actually over for the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames. Still, those games are more like tryouts for young players than competitive NHL action, meaning the focus is on the postseason from here on out.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. The first part looked at the future for Taylor Hall, some expansion draft complications, and the Selke Trophy vote. The second discussed the unproven goaltending situation in Pittsburgh, Seattle’s first star, and which dark horses could make a run during the playoffs.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run this weekend.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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PHR Mailbag: Pittsburgh And Colorado Goalies, Seattle, Boston’s Expansion Situation, Playoff Sleepers, Gogolev, Fantasy Hockey

May 9, 2021 at 7:58 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Pittsburgh’s goalies, Colorado’s decision to not add a more prominent backup goalie, some Seattle side deal speculation, a quick look a Boston’s expansion situation, what sleeper teams could make some noise in the playoffs, a junior player that hasn’t received much NHL interest, and some comments on some young NHL forwards that haven’t quite found their way offensively.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

One More JAGR: Do the Penguins have the goaltending tandem to make it to the big show or is the lack of experience going to be an Achilles’ heel?

The tandem of Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith (when healthy; both are currently hurt) is certainly far from the top tandem in the league but teams have gone deep with lesser starters before.  Both goalies have shown they can get hot for stretches and in the playoffs, a hot streak can win a round or two so I think they’re capable of being good enough to do some damage if one gets going at the right time.

However, I’m not overly confident that they will be able to do that.  Pittsburgh is the top-scoring team in the league this season which is great but scoring rates typically go down instead of up in the playoffs.  That puts more pressure on the goalies to try to limit teams to two or less.  Jarry has allowed three or more goals in 20 of 39 appearances this season and DeSmith in nine of 20.  That’s basically a 50/50 split on allowing three or more.  It’s hard to go deep in the playoffs with those types of odds and with them looking like they’ll line up against the Islanders, the games are definitely going to be lower-scoring.  One of them will need to get going right away to avoid an upset.

Eaton Harass: Why would Sakic go out and get two questionable backups instead of getting one solid one?

I think part of the problem was the uncertainly with Pavel Francouz’s injury.  At the time they went and got Jonas Johansson, I suspect they were still holding out hope for Francouz to return.  If they thought he was going back, then just getting a short-term bridge guy made some sense and to Johansson’s credit, he has been better than I thought he was going to be.

Devan Dubnyk’s addition was a bit of a surprise though.  I thought Jonathan Bernier was going to be their target, someone who had played there before and while he’s not a true starter, he’s an above-average backup.  Dubnyk hasn’t been that for a couple of years now so him being targeted was odd and I wonder if he was the fallback plan.  Landing on the COVID Protocol Related Absences List certainly hasn’t helped things either.

However, the goalie trade market never really materialized.  Florida held onto Chris Driedger and Detroit kept Bernier, taking the two top options off the market in the process which limited their options to add more of an impact goalie.  The Panthers wanted the goalie insurance for their playoff run and I suspect the Red Wings are going to try to re-sign Bernier.  GM Joe Sakic doesn’t strike me as someone that’s going to push all of the chips to the table either.  They know they need some cost-effective players over the next couple of years and holding onto their top picks gives them a better chance to develop some of those.

Incremental upgrades were the name of the game for the Avs at the deadline as Sakic supplemented the depth instead of the core.  I think they should have been willing to pay a bit more to get a more reliable option but with most of the notable names not moving, I can’t say for certain that they didn’t try either.  If Philipp Grubauer can stay healthy though, who backs him up in the playoffs should ultimately be a moot point anyway.  But with what happened last year, I can certainly understand why there’s a bit more emphasis on the backup this time around.

pawtucket: Who (or what) will Seattle’s biggest acquisitions be?

This is really hard to predict when we’re more than two months away from protection lists being released.  Trades will be made, players will be injured in the playoffs which could shift them from protected to unprotected, and there may be another GM change or two on the horizon which could also affect things.  As a result, at this point, the best I can offer is a couple of vague predictions on side deals.

Tampa Bay needs to dump money and Seattle has the ability to absorb it better than anyone else can.  Tyler Johnson’s $5MM AAV needs to come off the books.  I suspect that Seattle is going to receive a significant package in exchange for selecting Johnson.  Given their free agent situation up front and a need for several low-cost forwards, I suspect the incentive is going to come from the back end where Cal Foote, a 2017 first-round pick, seems like a player that could be part of that package as someone that can start on Seattle’s third pairing and ideally work his way up a bit.

Right now, Washington’s goaltenders seem like the logical target as they can’t protect both Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov.  Neither are ready for full-time number one duty but both are young and cost-controllable.  Combined, that tandem certainly could work for the Caps for a few years.  With that in mind, I expect GM Brian MacLellan to work out a side deal to keep them around.  That shouldn’t cost a top prospect but their upcoming second-round pick seems like something Kraken GM Ron Francis may be asking for.

As the offseason gets going, we’ll certainly be diving deeper into the situations for the 30 teams that will lose players (Vegas is exempt) where we’ll be able to put together better pictures of what could happen so I’m sure we’ll be able to come up with some predictions as we get closer to the expansion draft.

case7187: With the exp draft coming who should the Bruins protect? We know the Big 3 and Coyle (NMC) while they should trade DeBrusk; they should’ve done that last season when he had value. The 3 D are Carlo McAvoy and Grzelcyk (IMO they should look to move him as well with his long list of injuries) but goalie not sure and not really worried about some of the other guys this season has shown me the need to blow up the bottom nine.

I’m going to go a little out of order and talk about Jake DeBrusk first.  I don’t see there being much of a viable trade market for him this summer.  The year he is having has hurt his trade value considerably and his back-loaded contract only makes things worse as his $4.85MM salary is far from desirable.  I’ll take it a step farther and say there’s a better chance he’s bought out than traded.  As he’s under 25, it’s only a one-third cost and the back-loading of the deal would make for a pretty low cap charge.  (Per CapFriendly, doing so would give Boston a cap credit of $366K next year and a cap charge of $808K in 2022-23).  To me, that’s more desirable than trying to move him for another bad contract.

Now let’s look at the forwards.  As you noted, Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and Charlie Coyle are locked in with no-move clauses and David Pastrnak is an obvious choice.  I’m going to put Nick Ritchie and Craig Smith as my next two picks; Ritchie remains young enough to still improve and has been a lot better than he was in limited action last year after being acquired while Smith is on a pretty good contract.  That leaves one spot for Trent Frederic and Zach Senyshyn, two prospects who haven’t done much with their chances.  Frederic gets the spot as he has at least mostly established himself as a regular while Senyshyn is more on the fringes.  For anyone checking, that leaves DeBrusk, Ondrej Kase (injuries make him a safe bet to not be picked), Curtis Lazar, and Chris Wagner as unprotected forwards and they would be in compliance with the requirement to have at least two signed players unprotected that have played in 27 games this year or 54 over the last two years with this list.

I agree with the defense although it leaves Jakub Zboril and Jeremy Lauzon exposed and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those two get picked by Seattle.  I kicked around the idea of leaving Matt Grzelcyk exposed with his contract but Boston’s back end can’t take any more hits in terms of losing established talent.  As for goalies, Jeremy Swayman is exempt while Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak are UFAs and aren’t at any risk of being signed and picked.  That puts it between Daniel Vladar and Callum Booth and of those two, I’d protect Vladar.  It means that Booth needs a qualifying offer when he hasn’t earned it but they’re not going to be the only team qualifying a goalie for that very reason.

wreckage: Whom are the biggest sleepers entering the postseason? Everyone expects big things from Tampa, Colorado, Vegas, and Toronto. Could a Minnesota, Edmonton, Montreal, or Florida surprise and make a run?

I think Minnesota’s the team to watch for here.  They’ve given Vegas fits this season winning five of eight games with two of the three losses coming in overtime.  They’ve also been alright against Colorado who right now lines up as their more probable first-round matchup.  They’re scoring at a good clip but have a fairly balanced attack and both Cam Talbot and Kaapo Kahkonen have shown themselves to be capable of playing quite well for a long stretch.

I’m not as bullish on the other three you listed.  Edmonton’s still largely the same team that got upset in the bubble a year ago and no matter how well Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl do, they probably can’t carry the load alone while having success in the playoffs.  Montreal is supposed to be built for the playoffs but they haven’t looked good outside of the first ten games of the season.  If they’re healthy by then, they’re good enough to give a team a scare but I don’t see them going deep.  I give Florida a ton of credit for turning things around but I can’t pick them to beat a Tampa Bay team that’s going to get captain Steven Stamkos and top winger Nikita Kucherov back.

I’m going to add the Islanders to the list as well.  They’ve shown that they can have playoff success with good defense and goaltending and those elements are definitely still in place.  Their offense is a bit deeper than it was a year ago and it would not surprise me much at all if they were the team that comes out of the East Division.

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bigalval: How is Pavel Gogolev doing and where is he playing right now? I really think this kid could be good and he went undrafted. Am I the only one who believes in him?

It has been a few months since we checked in on Gogolev although not a whole lot has changed since then.  He spent about six weeks in Sweden’s Allsvenskan, a level below the SHL where he didn’t produce much with just two goals and an assist in a dozen games.  He then went back to North America in February on a tryout deal with the Marlies but has played in just four games since then, scoring a single goal.

Gogolev’s track record of higher-end success is minimal, basically limited to his final junior season.  Plenty of players get big jumps in their last year though granted, they typically don’t produce 45 goals and 51 assists like he did.  But that alone doesn’t make him an NHL-caliber prospect.  The fact that he has gone undrafted and hasn’t been able to even earn an AHL contract (a tryout deal isn’t really the same) suggests that scouts are not particularly high on his potential.

He can shoot, that much is a given.  But that element alone isn’t going to get him into the NHL.  His best bet is to find a team – either in the minors or overseas – that he can join for a couple of years and get some stability where he can work on improving some other elements of his game that could help get him on the NHL radar.  But as things stand, it seems quite unlikely that there’s an NHL future on the horizon for him.

Pieters: I’m in a 12-team dynasty league counting G, A, Pts, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG and Hits. Last year I joined an expansion team and attempting to build a contender. I’m on the bubble this year as to whether the following players well break out to meet potential; Sam Steel, Dillon Dube, Jordan Kyrou, Sam Poulin and Cody Glass. Other than Poulin they’ve appeared to get some opportunity but have struggled to date. Any opinion on these is appreciated.

Let’s tackle these one at a time:

Steel – I’d be a bit worried if I was Ducks GM Bob Murray.  This is his third professional season and he hasn’t progressed much at all.  More worrisome is that Anaheim simply can’t score.  It’s one thing for Steel not being able to carry a line; he’s 23 and that’s not supposed to be his job.  But the veterans aren’t good enough to lead the way either and until that changes, he’s going to be spinning his wheels.

Dube – I think there’s a bit more room for offensive growth.  He has established himself as a gritty bottom-six player which has earned him some spot duty higher in the lineup.  If that continues, he could be a breakout candidate in a couple of years.  He seems to be on the right trajectory although his ceiling is probably around 40 points or so.

Kyrou – This is the first year where he has had some consistent opportunities and the results have been pretty good with 32 points in 52 games.  That’s a 50-point pace over a full season and he’s doing that despite averaging less than 15 minutes a night and second unit power play time.  There’s definitely cause for optimism for him to take on a bigger role and should be on your radar as a breakout candidate for next year.

Poulin – Given Pittsburgh’s stated desire to add some size and grit to the lineup, it certainly seems like Poulin has a good shot as a spot next season.  However, that will be in a limited role most likely as not a lot of players go straight from junior to a top-six role.  He has the upside to get there but it probably won’t be in 2021-22.

Glass – I was expecting big things from him this year and thought he’d push for a regular spot on the second line.  Clearly, that didn’t happen.  There’s definitely time for him to rebound but with Chandler Stephenson establishing himself as a top-two pivot, Glass will have to work his way up from the third line so it may be a couple of years before he takes that big step forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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PHR Mailbag: Toews, Hurricanes, Hall, Avalanche, Selke Candidates, Devils, Projections

May 2, 2021 at 7:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 8 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the latest on Chicago’s captain, Carolina’s quiet trade deadline, Taylor Hall’s next destination, Colorado’s goaltending situation for expansion, potential Selke Trophy candidates, targets for New Jersey in free agency, and many projections.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

realsox: What is the current status of Jonathan Toews?

Toews has missed the entire season due to an illness and with it being a sensitive health matter, it’s nice to see that there hasn’t been a lot of ill-founded speculation on his situation.  The original announcement was that he was experiencing symptoms that left him feeling drained and lethargic and quite frankly, that can be quite a few things and there’s no point guessing on what it could be.  He hasn’t skated lately and isn’t coming back this season, even if Chicago makes a miracle run to get to the playoffs.

The good news is that last month, TSN’s Darren Dreger reported that Toews’ health is improving and that as things stand, he’s expected to be available for next season which is great news.  That means that the Blackhawks won’t be able to put his $10.5MM on LTIR for next year but with Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw’s playing days done, they’ll still have a lot of money on there and if all goes well, they’ll have their captain back which would give them a huge boost at center, a position that has been a problem spot all season.

mikedickinson: Is Waddell’s lack of a move at the deadline going to hurt the Canes? With Jesper Fast out last night they dressed seven defensemen and the third and fourth lines weren’t anything great.

I know GM Don Waddell had suggested that they weren’t going to be anywhere near as active at the trade deadline as they were a year ago but I was expecting more from them than swapping out sixth defenders (Haydn Fleury for Jani Hakanpaa and a sixth-rounder).  I thought they’d have moved out a goalie but that market didn’t materialize as much as some thought it would (and with Petr Mrazek banged up again, that may wind up working out for them in the end).

I would have liked to see them add some more forward depth, especially since they had the cap space to add where a lot of other contenders didn’t but there may have been a budgetary element to that as well.  Having said that, a depth winger shouldn’t make or break their chances in the playoffs.  Carolina’s top six is what will make the difference and that has been bolstered with Teuvo Teravainen’s long-awaited return.  Teams often go as far as their top players will take them when it comes down to crunch time, so to speak and as long as those guys stay healthy, they should be in good shape regardless of their third and fourth lines.

M34: Where does Taylor Hall fail next season?

At this point, I don’t see a reason to think why it won’t be Boston.  Following the trade, Hall confirmed that he used his no-move clause to push a deal to the Bruins and that he had interest in joining them last fall but the money couldn’t come together.  Unless things go really poorly, it’s hard to see him opting to go elsewhere.

What works for Hall is that he’s now in a role that’s better suited for him.  At this point of his career, he’s not a 20-minute player that’s going to be counted on to get the key goal at the crucial moment.  He wasn’t that at the end of his time in New Jersey, he wasn’t that in Arizona, and he certainly wasn’t that in Buffalo this season.  If he decides to hit the open market this summer in a search for a role where he can be that number one guy, he will probably struggle once again.  But he doesn’t need to be that in Boston where he’s clearly behind Brad Marchand in the pecking order and Marchand isn’t giving up that role anytime soon.  He can get the secondary defensive matchups playing alongside David Krejci and take advantage of those which he has so far.

Also working in Boston’s favor is their cap situation moving forward.  Krejci’s $7.25MM comes off the books this summer and while there’s a very good chance he re-signs, it’ll be at a lower rate than what he’s getting now.  Some of those savings can go towards Hall – who is on Boston’s books at $4MM with Buffalo retaining the rest – while not drastically hurting their financial flexibility with moves still to make in terms of solidifying the defense and retaining or replacing Tuukka Rask.  Lots can change over the next few months but if I’m picking where he signs right now, it’s Boston.

coachdit: If you were in Joe Sakic’s shoes, what would you do with goalie regarding the expansion draft? Dubnyk and Gruby are UFA after the season, Johansson and Francouz are in their second season and I believe that means they are exempt.

Let’s look at the eligibility situation first.  This is Jonas Johansson’s fourth season on an NHL contract so he is eligible to be taken (but he’s a pending UFA at no risk of being picked).  It’s technically Pavel Francouz’s third year but he hasn’t played this season.  Unless he comes back, he won’t accrue a year of service time which makes him exempt.  Hunter Miska is also eligible for selection.

I don’t think there’s much of a decision to make here.  If they can re-sign Philipp Grubauer by then, he gets protected.  If they think there’s a chance to re-sign him after expansion, he gets protected.  If he goes to them and says he’s testing the open market, I’d still probably protect him as there’s no risk of Miska getting picked even with him on an AAV that’s below the league minimum salary for 2021-22; the Avs will have better players left unprotected to pick from than him.

The only way I don’t see Grubauer being protected is if his demands are so high that Colorado goes out and trades for a goalie.  In that case, whoever they get becomes protected.  Otherwise, signed or not, they may as well just protect Grubauer.

KAR 120C: Who are the Selke trophy candidates? I ask as Draisaitl is looking good, but wonder about all of the variables in play. It feels like there are always the incumbents.

Honestly, I don’t think Leon Draisaitl is in the conversation.  Regardless of how good someone’s defensive game is, if you’re battling for a scoring title, you’re probably getting overlooked for a defensive award.  He may get some fourth and fifth place votes but I doubt he sees more than that.

Yes, there are the usual suspects that are in it regularly.  Patrice Bergeron is always going to be in the mix.  So too is Ryan O’Reilly.  Last year’s winner (Sean Couturier) would have been in the mix had it not been for injuries.  Mark Stone dropped to fifth last year after finishing second three years in a row and has to be given strong consideration as well.

If you’re looking for a darkhorse candidate, I’ll toss out Aleksander Barkov.  He has been thought of as underrated for so long that he really isn’t underrated anymore so he’s on the radar for voters.  He logs heavy minutes including late-game defensive situations and takes a regular turn on the penalty kill.  He’s well above average at the faceoff dot.  If you look at possession and expected goals for stats (which some voters do), he stands out there as well.  And with the award seemingly gravitating towards the best two-way forward in the league instead of the best defensive one, Barkov certainly has the offensive numbers to stand out too.  You can never count out the regulars for this award but this may be the year for Barkov.

SpeakOfTheDevil: You mentioned in prior mailbags that the Devils lack an identity (which I sort of agree with you about).  That being said, name three free agents the Devs should go after this offseason to complement the pieces that we do have and that start acquiring that identity.

With the cap space New Jersey has entering a market that has few teams with big money to spend, I’m going to dream big here with a couple of these.  I don’t see them landing three big fish but here is who I’d target if I was GM Tom Fitzgerald.

Dougie Hamilton – With Ty Smith and Damon Severson already on the roster plus P.K. Subban, there’s a puck-rushing component to build off of.  Hamilton can add to that.  With the young group of forwards they have, Lindy Ruff is trying to get a team that plays more up-tempo.  Hamilton fits that playing style.  And with Subban being a year away from unrestricted free agency, there’s a pending hole to be filled and what better way to fill it than the best UFA blueliner out there that already fits the direction they seem to want to go?

Gabriel Landeskog – There is a lot of finesse in New Jersey’s young core but not a lot of high-end sandpaper.  Landeskog plays with enough of a physical edge to make him stand out among New Jersey’s options and is talented enough offensively to fit alongside Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier and really bring another dimension to that line while also providing some much-needed scoring on the wing.  He’d be a huge boost on their top line.

Zach Hyman – Is he a big fish compared to these two?  Not really but he’d be a nice consolation prize nonetheless.  He has shown in Toronto that he is a perfect complementary piece for skill players and fits in an up-tempo environment.  That’s what New Jersey has and is hoping to build upon.  If the plan is to build around Hughes and Hischier anchoring the top two lines, they need someone that’s willing to do the dirty work around the boards and more specifically, someone that’s good at it.  Hyman checks those boxes.  With his price point coming in lower than some of the top free agents out there, he’s going to have plenty of interest but the Devils have the ability to outbid them all.

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The Duke: Crystal Ball fortunes/rankings, please, for points and time frame for: Jarvis, Newhook, Krebs and Veleno; Kotkov, Denisenko, Kravtsov and Podkolzin; Valimaki and Fabbro – and GAA/time frame for Melnichuk, Vladar, Ingram, Larsson and Petruzzelli? Thank you in advance.

With you asking about 15 players this time instead of a smaller group, I’m going to try to be a little shorter than usual on each one but here we go.

Group One

Seth Jarvis (CAR) – I’ve touched on him before but I see him as a second-liner down the road which has him in the 45-50-point mark.  I could see him getting a look next year but 2022-23 may be more likely for him to debut.

Alex Newhook (COL) – Same as Jarvis in terms of point potential.  The Avs may need to put a few more entry-level players into their lineup next year depending on which UFAs they need to keep which could give Newhook a leg up.  Otherwise, 2022-23 for his start time as well.

Peyton Krebs (VGK) – Another one that’s in that 45-50-point range, he could use a full AHL season before making the jump although they may opt for a longer route given his recent injuries and the fact that Cody Glass – another first-round center – has had his development stunted a bit by trying to develop him more in the NHL.  2022-23 is a possibility but 2023-24 may be more realistic.

Joe Veleno (DET) – With a full AHL year under his belt already plus spending this season overseas, he’s pretty much ready to step in so I’ll put 2021-22 as a timeframe.  While he was a dominant scorer in junior, I think he’s more of a two-way third liner in the NHL in the 30-point range.  Don’t mistake that as me being down on his upside though – he’ll be an important piece of their rebuild.

Group Two

Vladislav Kotkov (SJ) – He’s a good junior scorer but not great and I can’t help but wonder if some of his production comes from being bigger and older than most opponents.  He needs at least two if not three years in the minors before having an NHL shot and I don’t see him being a big point producer at the top level.  Still a worthwhile add as an undrafted UFA by the Sharks though.

Grigori Denisenko (FLA) – He looks more like a third liner based on his recent numbers but KHL guys with limited playing time (which is where he was before this season) are tough to project; they see him as having top-six upside which would have him around 40 points.  A year in their system (on their own farm team instead of Tampa’s) is needed at a minimum to earn a full-time spot.

Vitali Kravtsov (NYR) – With the other wingers the Rangers have, I think he’s more of a third liner than a top-six fit.  I know the KHL goal total was impressive this season (16 in 49 games) but was that more of an outlier?  25-30 points is the safer pick but if they clear someone out in an effort to get center help, that will go up as he’ll have a window to a bigger role.  He’s basically a regular now and that’s unlikely to change next season.

Vasili Podkolzin (VAN) – The biggest wildcard out of anyone on here. Vancouver thinks he’s a top-liner which has him in the 55-point or more range.  With how he has done against his own age group, that may be a bit high (and I’m not even going to dig into his KHL numbers).  There’s a good chance he’s a regular next season but he could be a 25-30-point guy to start with a gradual increase once he establishes himself.

Group Three

Juuso Valimaki (CGY) – I know it’s his first year back but I think Calgary was expecting a bit more from him.  I can’t write off his offensive upside entirely considering what he did in junior but unless he can play his way into a bigger role with special teams time, it’s hard to see him going higher than 20 points most years.

Dante Fabbro (NSH) – He’s going to be an important part of Nashville’s back end – he is already – but even though he put up some points in his last year at Boston University, that’s not going to be his NHL calling card, especially with those in front of him.  He could get to the 20-25-point range but I don’t think he’s dynamic enough offensively to go much higher.

Group Four

Alexei Melnichuk (SJ) – The fact that Josef Korenar has passed him on the depth chart is concerning.  His AHL numbers aren’t pretty and with SKA St. Petersburg in Russia acquiring his rights yesterday, there is going to be a strong offer to get him to go home.  Assuming Korenar is the backup next season, I don’t know if there is an NHL ETA for Melnichuk as if he’s faced with the choice in 2022 of re-signing as a third-stringer or going to a top KHL team, I think he’s going with the latter.

Daniel Vladar (BOS) – I like him as a third-string option but I’m not sure he’s an NHL backup moving forward.  Jeremy Swayman looks like he’s part of the tandem next season with a veteran (Rask, Jaroslav Halak, or a free agent) filling the other spot.  He has two more years left and maybe in that final year he gets a longer look but between now and then, it’s spot duty.

Connor Ingram (NSH) – With this year being largely a write-off, I expect they’ll want him to spend next season with AHL Milwaukee and then move up to be the backup to Juuse Saros.  If they’re skeptical that they can get him through waivers though, he could be in the mix as soon as next season.  It’s hard to project GAA numbers as a lot of the time it’s team-dependent; just go two or three tenths above the starters’ numbers and the projection will be pretty close.

Filip Larsson (DET) – In hindsight, staying in college would have been the better way to go.  Larsson is two years into his entry-level deal now and frankly hasn’t progressed much.  He’s at least two years away but needs to be qualified by then and I’m not sure he has done enough to get that yet.

Keith Petruzzelli (DET) – Larsson’s fate will largely be determined by whether or not they can get Petruzzelli signed between now and the middle of August; it’s intriguing that a deal hasn’t been done yet.  I think he could be in the mix to be an NHL backup after a couple of professional seasons and with Detroit basically opting for veteran stopgaps in recent years, there’s an opportunity for him to move fast in their system.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

April 30, 2021 at 2:40 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 15 Comments

The playoffs are right around the corner and several spots are still up for grabs. Season-ending injuries are being announced daily, while top prospects are finally getting their first shot in the NHL. The contenders are fine-tuning while the rebuilders are mixing things up.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. The first part dealt with trade deadline targets in the East Division, correctly suggesting that the Islanders would be looking at both Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac (and noting that the Devils would likely get more than a second-round pick back). The second looked at the future for Jaden Schwartz in St. Louis and examined the fit of Patrik Laine in Columbus.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run this weekend.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag

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