PHR Mailbag

We’re coming up on the NHL All-Star break and a few days past the halfway point of the schedule. Jakob Chychrun and John Klingberg are squarely in the rumor mill, as the Coyotes and Stars try to squeeze the most value out of their departing defensemen. Evander Kane’s situation is still up in the air, and players from around the world are departing for the Olympics.

With all that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two parts. In the first, our Brian La Rose examined the Philadelphia Flyers situation right as they fired Alain Vigneault, wrote about the Kane situation before his minor league incident, and took a look at the disappointing Winnipeg Jets campaign. In the second, he projected out future point totals for players like Matty Beniers and Cole Perfetti, looked at J.T. Miller as a trade candidate, and discussed the struggles for many of the Canadian teams this year.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and answer as many questions as possible.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Mike Sullivan’s candidacy for the Jack Adams award, future scoring projections, an intriguing trade target for the Bruins, discussing the struggles of several Canadian teams, and league ownership.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in Monday’s mailbag.

Rayno15: Why is Mike Sullivan not in the running for Coach of the Year?

Who says he isn’t?  It’s an award that’s voted on at the end of the season, not just past the one-quarter mark.  The end result in the standings often dictates who is and isn’t a finalist for this award and in mid-December, it’s way too early to set that.

To be honest, I think Sullivan could be a viable contender depending on how things play out.  Pittsburgh has been hit hard with injuries this season with offensive cornerstones Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, and Bryan Rust all having missed or are currently missing significant time while most of their back end has missed a handful of games as well.  To be hanging around the playoff mix in spite of all of that is certainly impressive.

But can they stay there?  It’s one thing to be in the mix in December and another to be playing in May when the playoffs get underway this season.  Where they finish will determine whether or not Sullivan is a viable candidate for the award.  If they can get into the playoffs in spite of their injury trouble, there’s a good chance he’ll be on quite a few Jack Adams ballots.

The Duke: Dear PHRM Crystal Ball, As you know by now, I’m always looking to be one step ahead in my 12-team Keeper League, ergo I pose these questions:

1. Of the following, please rank and project which has the quicker/brighter scoring future, with goals ranked ahead of assists: Matt Beniers, Adam Beckman, Cole Perfetti & Jack Dugan.
2. Same as above for Rasmus Sandin and Calen Addison.

1) In terms of a quicker future, I don’t think you’re going to see any of these four get substantial NHL action this season.  Perhaps Beniers at the end of the year will see time but there’s no short-term impact coming.  Next season, I’d expect both Beniers and Perfetti to be regulars and likely in a top-six role.  The fact that Dugan didn’t get a look last season was curious and injuries haven’t helped this year.  But he turns 24 in March so the clock is ticking fast on his NHL upside.  Beckman’s skating is a concern for me.  The rest of his skillset is promising but overcoming skating has been easier said than done.

That puts Beniers and Perfetti in a class of their own for me as the other two may be more complementary players than high-impact ones.  I’ll rank them by a ballpark guess of what a typical season for them could be in terms of goals and points once they’re established in the league.

Beniers: 30/80
Perfetti: 25/60
Dugan: 15/40
Beckman: 15/35

2) Obviously, Sandin is the quicker option considering that he has basically been a regular this season with the Maple Leafs while Addison has been up and down with Minnesota.  Barring injuries, Addison probably isn’t a regular down the stretch while Sandin should stay in Toronto’s lineup.  So for short-term help, Sandin is the better play.

I also think he’s the higher-scoring option on a long-term basis.  Neither project to see substantial power play time with veterans locked up in front of them on the depth chart (Morgan Rielly and Jared Spurgeon) and both have top-four upside at five-on-five.  If I have to guess which one will be the higher-scoring option, I’ll go with the team that has the better long-term offensive outlook and that’s Toronto.  Minnesota’s scoring more this season but is that sustainable with the cap-related cuts to the roster?  I’m not so sure on that one.  Nonetheless, their projections would be pretty close:

Sandin: 8/30
Addison: 6/25

I could see both of them having some years where they’re over those thresholds but others where they’re below so call that an average forecast.

SkidRowe: J.T. Miller to the Bruins. What would it take?

From a fit perspective, this would certainly be a good one for Boston.  He could slide into the number two center spot that they’ve been trying to find the right fit for all season long and plays an all-situations game that would really make their top six a real strong spot.

However, it’s worth mentioning the cap situation before digging into a hypothetical trade.  Boston has just over $13MM in cap room for next season, per CapFriendly.  Adding Miller would knock that just under $8MM with a few roster spots to fill including re-signing Patrice Bergeron.  That would be a very tight squeeze, perhaps too tight to try to fill.  Accordingly, Boston would need to move out some money for next season to make a move justifiable; acquiring Miller only to have his contract price out Bergeron next summer wouldn’t be ideal.

I’m sure you’re thinking Jake DeBrusk would be part of such a package but I don’t think his trade value is all that strong. Vancouver doesn’t have the cap space to take multiple pricey players back and DeBrusk’s deal is up next season and the Bruins should want to clear some 2022-23 money off the books here.  I don’t think he’s a good fit here as a result.  Given the state of the Canucks’ defense, I could see someone like Matt Grzelcyk carrying some value and that would offset a good chunk of Miller’s money.  A first-round pick is a given as well.

These deals also usually have a good prospect in there.  I could see Vancouver interim GM Jim Rutherford asking for John Beecher, a 2019 first-rounder if the trade market for Miller is robust enough to basically get a second first-rounder included and with the season he’s having, that’s a definite possibility if he’s made available.  I could see Boston GM Don Sweeney countering with someone like Jack Studnicka.  Two-way point-per-game centers don’t become available often and while Miller would be a great fit for Boston, he’d be a great fit for many other teams as well.  The price is going to sting as a result, especially with him on a below-market contract for another year.  Either way, this is a move that probably comes closer to the trade deadline as right now, the Canucks are still trying to get back into the playoff hunt.

pawtucket: How does one put out the Canadian tire fires that are the Canucks, Canadiens, Sens, and even recently the Jets?

Vancouver: They’ve made two big swings quickly with Bruce Boudreau and Rutherford coming in as win-now people.  From an ownership perspective, they’re hoping Boudreau can turn things around and the early returns are good.  Their defense still needs improvement although getting one with next to no cap space will be a challenge.  They could still sneak into the playoffs and while that’s not a great accomplishment, this is a win-now roster and they have to get to the postseason to see if this core group can get something done.  A bit of patience will be needed as Boudreau makes his mark.

Montreal: Sometimes, it’s just not your year.  The Canadiens are beyond battered due to injuries and have already set a franchise record for the most games played in a calendar year at 106 (and they have nine more before the month is out).  I don’t think they get out of this funk this season and they will embark on some sort of rebuild/reset by the trade deadline with a coaching change as soon as the offseason to see if a different approach can spark the players that are still around.

Ottawa: I thought they’d be better this season.  Not necessarily a playoff team but not a lottery contender either, however, injuries have hurt them as well.  For now, it’s ride it out with some prospects getting a longer look but for the offseason, they need to do a better job of bringing in impactful buffer veterans that can shelter some of their younger players instead of just taking up spots at the back of the roster.  That would help move them from the back of the standings towards the middle where they’ll be battling for a Wild Card spot and although that’s not too exciting, it’s a step they need to take; teams rarely go from pretender to contender all at once.

Winnipeg: I don’t think there’s much they really can do.  They’re in a money in, money out situation so the only card they have to play is a coaching change and I don’t think that’s warranted at this time.  As I mentioned in last week’s mailbag, I think they’ll be fine by the end of the season.

blueavenger77: Has the NHL ever had a publicly owned franchise similar to the NFL’s Green Bay Packers? If not, do NHL rules prohibit a publicly held non-profit corporation from owning a team? I ask the question because it seems to me that many NHL franchises would have a better chance of stability and success with a different ownership structure.

There isn’t anything quite like Green Bay’s public ownership structure in the NHL with the closest thing to any type of public ownership being able to buy shares in the group that owns the team such as the Rangers and Madison Square Garden Entertainment.  There’s nothing that I can see in the NHL Constitution that prohibits such an ownership structure although there is a note that says the Board of Governors can change the ‘membership’ criteria from time to time which, I suppose, could allow them to block such an attempt if they so desired.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the tough starts for the Flyers and Jets, Evander Kane’s situation, trade candidates closer to the deadline, and the television deal in the United States.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

BlackAce57: It seems like the most consistent part of the Flyers the last three to five years has been their inconsistency. With the injuries to older big salary players and the young guns still not stepping up to what was expected, will this just be another season of mediocrity?

DarkSide830: What should the Flyers do? Is sacking AV and seeing if the new coach can spark the team a good start?

Being consistently inconsistent is certainly a hallmark of Philadelphia’s hockey teams in recent years and enough coaches, players, and general managers to make it a baffling trait.  There has been enough turnover on all fronts that it shouldn’t keep happening.  Making more big changes as they’ve now done certainly isn’t going to guarantee that this stops being the case.

Injuries haven’t helped their cause this season and yes, the minimal progression of some of their younger players like Joel Farabee, Travis Konecny, and Travis Sanheim has compounded that problem.  That said, I’m not willing to write off their playoff chances just yet; one of their hot streaks would get them right back in the race.  They’re not good enough to contend and not bad enough to bottom out and if you’re worried about them being in that mediocre zone, that’s probably where they’re going to land.

As for Vigneault, my original answer that was going to run Sunday night before Vancouver’s shakeup occurred was that I thought GM Chuck Fletcher would wait it out until the end of the season and re-assess from there.  Clearly, that isn’t the route they took given today’s news.  I’m not sure that promoting Mike Yeo is going to spark them but he does have some experience in the top role and he’s certainly a reasonable one to turn to.

In his recent press conference, Fletcher preached patience for his roster and I take him at his word.  They haven’t had a healthy squad for most of the season so it’s harder to evaluate the ceiling for this team and now the coaching change will make that a bit more challenging.  I think they’re a bubble team and as long as they hang around the playoff mix, I don’t think they’ll do much.

As for what they should do, I’d let the season play out and if they fall out of the race a bit more, try to get something for some of their expiring contracts.  By then, hopefully they’ll have had some more games at full strength to get a sense of what they can do at full strength.  They have a window where they can make some notable changes again next summer with Claude Giroux and several defenders heading for free agency.  That’s a good spot to decide on pivoting towards a reset or whether some more core tinkering (and perhaps another coaching change if it’s decided Yeo isn’t the long-term option) will be enough to get them battling for top spot in the Metropolitan.  I’d lean towards the reset; we’ll see eventually if they see it the same way.

trak2k: Why doesn’t the NHL require mouth guards for forwards and defensemen?

Also is there any way for the Sharks to get rid of Evander Kane without owing him his full salary?

On the first one, most already do but there are always some holdouts, just like with helmets back in the day.  It’s sort of a CBA issue as there is a joint committee between the league and NHLPA to determine what is and isn’t needed.  Obviously, enough players are against it enough to the point where the NHLPA isn’t going to want it mandatory and it’s not vital enough of an issue for the league to try to push something through like they did with visors.  If players want to run the risk of losing some more teeth, it’s their call to make.

As for Kane, there are a couple of ways to move him without paying his full salary, at least in theory.  The first is a trade with retention which is allowable up to 50% of the contract, or $3.5MM of Kane’s AAV; the same percentage is taken off his salary each year.  At this point, San Jose has indicated a willingness to go that route even though there are three years left after this one; they’d be paying a lot of money for him to not play there.  But with the behind the scenes stuff, will there be a taker at $3.5MM?  That’s hardly a guarantee which is why some have wondered if a third team will need to get involved, retain more of the contract (while receiving some sort of compensation for that), and then move him on.  Kane will need to play well with the Barracuda for a while before any type of trade could take place.

Another option – and perhaps the likelier one at this point – is a buyout in the summer.  San Jose can pay two-thirds of his remaining salary (plus all of the signing bonus money) spread out over six years for him to leave.  Doing so would cost them $10MM in actual money and drop his AAV from $7MM to $3.667MM in 2022-23, $2.667MM in 2023-24, $4.667MM in 2024-25, and $1.667MM for three years after that.  The Sharks don’t have the ability to void Kane’s contract for his fake vaccine card – Forbes’ Eric Macramalla explained the reasoning for that back in October – and while he could, in theory, agree to a contract termination, it’s quite unlikely he’d do so given his bankruptcy situation.

Y2KAK: Who would you see as some of the biggest players traded at the trade deadline?

Barring a bunch of extensions, I think it could be a fun trade deadline for rentals.  On the wing, Phil Kessel seems like a lock to move.  With his low salary and high cap hit, it’s one that Arizona may prefer to keep until closer to March 21.  I’m not sure Nashville is willing to lock up Filip Forsberg on a contract similar to the one that Gabriel Landeskog got to stay with the Avalanche and losing him for nothing but cap space wouldn’t be a good return at all so I think he goes.

Can San Jose afford to keep Tomas Hertl?  Getting any sort of cap relief (however minimal) for Kane would help but the prospect of letting him walk without a trade return would hurt.  The Sharks don’t have a deep farm system and he’s the one piece that could help to replenish it.  It’d be hard to part with him if they’re still in the playoff picture but it may be the better play long term.

I’m really curious to see what happens in Anaheim.  Defensemen Josh Manson and Hampus Lindholm plus winger Rickard Rakell are all probably in extend or trade situations.  Can interim GM Jeff Solomon work out new contracts for any of those three?  If not, while a shot at a playoff round would be nice from a financial standpoint, the smarter play would still be to sell.

Are all of these players going to move?  Probably not.  But I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of these names are traded over the next few months.

FearTheWilson: What’s with the Jets? Year after year they ice a highly talented team yet other than a trip to the WCF they haven’t had much success. Is it finally time to part ways with Paul Maurice?

For the talent Winnipeg has, it has been a flawed roster over the years.  Their defense last year had to be in the mix for the bottom five in the league after they lost so much so fast with not enough brought in to replace them and it’s hard to have a lot of playoff success with a bad back end.  Center depth – even when Bryan Little was healthy – always seemed to be an issue.  Their cap management hasn’t been the greatest either which has resulted in a few too many league minimum players on their roster lately.

In terms of this season, I think they’re going to be just fine.  Mark Scheifele will find another gear.  Blake Wheeler isn’t going to be held without a goal forever; he’ll get going again.  Connor Hellebuyck is still one of the top goalies in the league and their defense is a lot better this season.

How far they go will determine Maurice’s fate as I think he’s getting really close to a make-or-break situation.  Either they get through that ceiling and have a better playoff showing or it’ll be time to ask if he’s taken them as far as he can.  How they perform in May (and maybe June) will answer whether or not it’s time for a change.

CPL: Seems there is less NHL on TV under the new contract. TNT games are at 10 pm EST and most ESPN games are on ESPN+/Hulu. Will that continue all year?

There certainly haven’t been many national telecasts early on but that’s not surprising.  TNT doesn’t have the ‘A’ package so they don’t have a lot of games and ESPN is trying to get people to subscribe to ESPN+ in the early going.  That will change a bit as the season progresses as in the second half when there will be a national game on ESPN most weeks as well as ABC picking up some Saturday games as well.  ESPN’s full schedule can be found here.

As for TNT, their schedule is back-loaded as well.  Of their 50-game slate (which can be seen here), 40 still remain and there are a lot of double-headers in the second half of the season.  Yes, there are a lot of late games in there still but there will be more earlier games for them as well for you to look forward to.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Detroit’s back end, what Tomas Hertl’s next contract could look like, Toronto’s roster composition, under the radar minor leaguers who could make an NHL impact over the next few years, and a note on teams who may have needed financial help last season.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

Johnny Z: Filip Hronek was healthy scratched for two games. He has been the Wings’ leader in TOI for two years and logged big minutes for the first four games. Is Stevie about to trade him? It seems plausible as his value seems very good and has three years left on his deal.

Benching a player at this time of the season is rarely for a trade.  A few days before the trade deadline, sure, it’s protecting the asset but in the first few weeks, it’s to send a message.  Obviously, Jeff Blashill wasn’t overly impressed with Hronek’s play and decided to get that point across early on.  It seems to have worked as Hronek has been better since coming back.

You’re absolutely correct in that he would have a lot of trade value.  Few others on their team have the type of value that Hronek does.  But at the same time, he’s someone that should be viewed as part of their future core.  On the back end, Moritz Seider looks promising, but he’s about the only one other than Hronek on the current roster that plausibly has a shot at being an impact piece when they come out of their rebuild.  (Gustav Lindstrom could factor in as well but as more of a depth player than an impact one.)  With that in mind, they should be looking to hold onto Hronek.

YzerPlan19: With the hole on the right side in LA and the ton of young assets they have could the Kings be a potential trade partner?

The fit that I see isn’t one that would yield one of those young assets.  Hronek and Seider aren’t moving.  Lindstrom is too young to be moved just yet.  That takes three of the four righties on the NHL roster off the table.

Then there’s Troy Stecher, a player who has felt like a placeholder from the moment he signed with the Red Wings.  He’s someone that can play on the second pairing if needed or be a minute-eater on the third pairing.  That’s more of what the Kings are looking for to replace Sean Walker (since they can’t do a lot to replace Drew Doughty as he’s expected back six weeks or so from now).  He’s a rental and at $1.7MM, he’s cheap enough that it would leave them enough wiggle room to afford to recall someone from the minors into the rest of Walker’s LTIR space.  The on-ice fit is there and the cap fit is there.

But here’s the thing.  The return isn’t going to be overly significant.  I don’t think he’d land a second-rounder at the deadline so that sort of sets the baseline of a third-rounder or equivalent prospect here with maybe a late pick tacked on.  That’s not the type of young asset you may have been hoping for but if they want to give Lindstrom a longer look, it’s a move that is probably worth making from Detroit’s perspective.

mz90gu: What kind of contract can Hertl expect?

This is the type of question that should probably get its own article at some point closer to free agency.  Hertl has a lot going for him – he’ll only be 28 (so a max-term deal is realistic), he plays a premium position that is in high demand and short supply, and he’s played around a 70-point pace for the last few years.  That’s a great combination to have heading into a walk year.

At first glance, I think Sean Couturier’s extension with Philadelphia is the ballpark of where Hertl’s deal will fall.  They’re a year apart age-wise and have produced at similar extrapolated numbers over the past few seasons.  Couturier has a Selke Trophy which Hertl doesn’t (and won’t get) so it’s not a perfect comparison but he’s going to get a premium if he makes it to the open market.

Couturier signed for eight years and $62MM, a $7.75MM AAV.  I think Hertl’s range sandwiches that amount, falling between $7.5MM and $8MM.  If he re-signs with the Sharks, the ability to add an eighth year to the contract could push the cap hit towards the lower part of that range.  That said, making the cap situation work with a raise like that will be easier said than done for GM Doug Wilson.

KAR 120C: Odds that Dubas either trades one of his four or loses his job. As a result of putting 50% of the cap into four players and it not working out well (imho).

@Darrell_Samuels: ’Simple’ question – how do you fix the Toronto Maple Leafs?

I’m going to combine these as the answers sort of go together.

Dubas will eventually lose his job – all general managers do; it’s part of the business.  So I’m going to put odds on one of those things happening this season.  I’ll set it at around 10%.  I don’t think Toronto will move one of their ‘core four’ up front during the regular season and it’s difficult to move big contracts for full value in-season.  And unless things fall completely off the rails over the next couple of months, there probably isn’t going to be an in-season GM change either.

A lot depends on whether they can get out of the first round.  That’s the barometer for success this year; numbers during the regular season aren’t going to matter if they’re quickly bounced again.  Before the season, I predicted they’d win a round so I’ll stick by that and if that happens, Dubas will likely stick around.

But since these questions came out, Morgan Rielly signed his new deal, one that puts another big contract on the books.  I’m not sure they should try the same approach of rounding out the roster with a bunch of low-cost deals and hoping that the end result is different this time but it’s not as if they have a lot of options as their top two centers aren’t being moved.

It sounds a little counter-intuitive to say that moving a top forward is how to fix things but with how their cap is structured, it’s the only way to really change things; swapping sub-$1MM players isn’t going to move the needle much.  If Mitch Marner is moved for a top-six winger making half as much as he is plus some futures, there’s the cap space to keep Jack Campbell and maybe have a bit left over to put towards upgrading one of their cheaper forwards.  If they want to risk going with Petr Mrazek as the full-fledged starter and go cheap on the backup goalie, then the Marner move would give them a chance to add another middle-six piece to deepen the roster and a bit more quality depth up front.

Long term, their hope is that players like Nicholas Robertson, Rodion Amirov, and maybe someone like Alex Steeves can come in and play a regular role and lengthen the lineup.  At that time, that extra offensive depth could push them over the proverbial hump; at least, that’s the plan.

Is that truly fixing things though?  Not really but they’ve made this commitment and it’s a hard one to get out of.  If Auston Matthews decides to walk in free agency in 2024, that would be the next opportunity to dramatically change the shape and structure of the roster.  Until then, they either stick with their current direction or move a winger to give themselves a bit of wiggle room to fill other areas of the roster.  If I had to guess right now, I’d lean towards sticking with the current plan so I’d put the odds of moving a winger at 45% or close to a coin flip.  The next few months will be interesting on that front.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the slow starts in Seattle and Vegas, Vladimir Tarasenko’s hot start in St. Louis, Chicago’s struggles, Cam Atkinson’s return to form, and Arizona’s goaltending situation.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

trak2k: Is it worrying that the Kraken have the lowest amount of shots per game and also not really anyone on offense who can score?

Also. do teams who do well at the beginning of the season do well at the end of the season?

An uptick in shots now has Seattle out of the basement in that regard but it isn’t really cause for concern that the volume isn’t there.  The bigger issue is the second half of your first question in that they don’t have a lot of firepower.  This isn’t a team built to do a whole lot at the offensive end as GM Ron Francis opted to pass on some more prominent offensive players in expansion and only added some secondary pieces in free agency with an eye on longer-term flexibility.

It’s important to hammer home that they’re an expansion team.  They’re supposed to struggle.  What Vegas did when they entered the league is by far the exception to what first-year teams are supposed to do and it unfairly raised the bar for the Kraken in the process.  They’re supposed to be a middling team and with seven points out of their first eight games, they’re basically doing what most expansion teams do.

It’s not a given that teams that start strong will also finish strong.  The good teams are generally good throughout but there is usually a team or two that gets off to a hot start and fades as the year goes on and vice versa.  If you’re hoping that Seattle goes from a slow start to a good finish though, I don’t think this is the year for that to happen.

DirtbagBlues: Too early to panic in Vegas?

DirtbagBlues: Would Vegas really trade Theodore (as is being rumored since the Whitecloud and Hutton signings)? What else would they need to add to nab Eichel?

Speaking of that other recent expansion team…  I’m not pushing the panic button right now.  I know the statement “no excuses” tends to be applied but Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone, and Alex Tuch are a big part of their offense and they’re all on the shelf plus there have been a litany of minor issues that have kept players out as well.  When a team is icing a lineup with a combined payroll below the cap minimum some nights, they’re bound to struggle.  If they were all healthy and they were still struggling, then I’d be a bit more concerned.

As for Shea Theodore’s inclusion in a Jack Eichel trade, I think they would do that.  First, I think the expectation of what Eichel will get in a return has swung far too much the other way; the Sabres aren’t moving him for pennies on the dollar.  The pressure point is next offseason when his trade protection comes in, not now.  If he sits the season, I don’t think they’re all that concerned; it’s not as if they’re actively trying to make the playoffs anyway.

Back to Theodore, then.  Vegas has to match money for this to work on the cap (the LTIR only helps this season, not in the other four years of Eichel’s deal) so someone with a hefty price tag has to go the other way.  Theodore at $5.2MM is a start on that front.  But he’s young enough to be viewed as a longer-term piece for Buffalo and is signed through 2024-25 which is big for them.  He can be the centerpiece of a return as a result.  From the Golden Knights’ perspective, they have Alex Pietrangelo, Alec Martinez, and Zach Whitecloud signed through at least 2023-24 and Nicolas Hague under control through 2026.  That’s a good foundation on the back end even without Theodore.

As for what else, someone like Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, or Evgenii Dadonov would make the money work looking ahead to later in the year if Eichel is able to return for the stretch run and playoffs (LTIR shields them until that time).  I’d lean towards Marchessault solely because he has the longest term remaining which makes the money situation easier to navigate.  Buffalo is open to conditions on other pieces so there’s bound to be a conditional first-rounder in there plus probably a lower pick tied to that one.  I could also see someone like Jack Dugan involved, a prospect whose stock has dipped a bit but still carries some potential value to Buffalo.

Johnny Z: Does Tarasenko still get traded? Does he push it or settles in with the Blues?

I’ve never really thought Tarasenko was getting traded in the first place.  Sure, he may want out but with contracts like these, there’s a very fine line to navigate.  At $7.5MM for this season and next, teams aren’t going to want him if he’s not producing and how he finished last year basically cratered any possible value he may have.  On the other hand, he’s an important enough piece for the Blues that they weren’t going to give him away.

Now he’s off to a nice start to his 2021-22 campaign with four goals and four assists in six games.  His value has certainly gone up but where’s the motivation for St. Louis to trade him?  If you have a player producing at a top-line level, you keep him.  Winning and success can get rid of a lot of bad blood.  Will that be the case here?  I don’t know but considering that it’s often easier to try to swap big contracts in the offseason, that might be the time for something to happen on the trade front but not now.  At that point, teams will have a better idea if Tarasenko is truly back to his old form while there will also be the element of being able to discuss and potentially sign an extension which isn’t an option if he’s moved now.

Nha Trang: Has Marc-Andre Fleury just gotten old, or does the Chicago defense really suck THAT badly?

Why can’t it be both?  Fleury is 36 and there is some volatility in starting goalies as they get older.  Fleury didn’t hide the fact he didn’t want to be traded in the first place and while I’m not accusing him of merely going through the motions by any stretch, going from somewhere you loved to somewhere you don’t want to be certainly doesn’t help things.

As for Chicago’s back end, they’ve struggled quite a bit as well.  Frankly, they’ve surprised me with how poorly they’ve played as on paper, that’s at least a decent group.  Seth Jones has struggled mightily, Jake McCabe hasn’t quite settled in yet, and returning veterans Connor Murphy and Calvin de Haan have underwhelmed as well.

It’s also worth mentioning that in Fleury’s case, it’s four games.  That’s a pretty small sample size.  He isn’t going to be that bad all season long; I expect he’ll turn it around.  Generally speaking, I expect Chicago will find their footing eventually; there’s too much talent on that team to be this bad all season long.  When that happens, Fleury will go back to being a decent starter and that’s all they really wanted when they added him from Vegas.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Rangers and their long-term center situation, some candidates to step up for the Lightning this season, players that have a shot at having their tryouts converted to an NHL contract, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

jchancel: If the NYR are going to sign Zibanejad long term, what salaries do they move if they want to sign a front-line center? Personally, I’d like to see who they could possibly get that would play better with Panarin than Strome has. I know his faceoff % and defensive abilities aren’t the best, but he plays a very adequate game feeding Panarin.

Stop the Eichel nonsense!!! Crazy to overpay for damaged goods. If he’s gettable for two returns and a draft pick maybe. But not all your youth!!

I don’t see a scenario where they can afford to give Mika Zibanejad the long-term contract he’s seeking and still try to bring in a number one center.  With Artemi Panarin not going anywhere and their young core heading for pricier deals in a hurry – headlined by Adam Fox next summer – they’re not going to be able to carry two high-priced pivots on their roster.  If they were absolutely adamant about trying to add another impact center (perhaps a high-end second option), Chris Kreider feels like the one that they’d try to move.  His contract probably won’t age well and with the young wingers they have coming, he could be pushed down the depth chart in a hurry.

I understand the temptation to try to upgrade on Ryan Strome given his track record but at some point, he deserves some credit at least.  Yes, he plays well with Panarin but it shouldn’t necessarily be taken for granted that whichever potential upgrade they try to get will have similar chemistry.  It could be better but it could be worse.  I’m not necessarily advocating that they keep him but at the frequency he’s thrown into trade suggestions, it should at least be said that he has had the best two seasons of his career in the last two years.  That should count for something.

Eichel’s trade value is dipping right now but I don’t see Buffalo accepting that low of a return for him at this point.  With the Sabres not trying to compete, I think they’re perfectly content dragging this out a little while longer.

denny816: If the Rangers do not see a considerable jump in production from Kaapo Kakko (assuming he is given an increased role for the upcoming season), could you see Drury dangling him and one of their plethora of young defense prospects to fill the hole they have at center?

That would certainly make sense in theory but at the same time, if Kakko doesn’t have a big jump in production, how much does his trade value drop?  I wouldn’t want to put him into ‘bust’ territory but there’s no doubt it would make it harder for him to be the centerpiece of such a move.  If they had any inclination of trying to move Kakko for a center, it may make more sense to try to do it now.  There’s some risk in that Kakko breaks out elsewhere but if he landed a promising young, cost-controllable pivot, it could be worth doing sooner than later.

The Captain 11: The NYR are in a no-win situation with the center position right now. Both Zibanejad and Strome are UFA after this season. They have no internal options to replace them and it doesn’t look like there are upgrades available in the 2022 UFA market. Are there any possible RFA’s ripe for an offer sheet possibly?

Do the NYR overpay both Zibanejad and Strome in both money and term or do they trade one or both to not risk losing them for nothing? With Dolan mandating making the playoffs (or something close to that), it seems like the latter is off the table. A true no-win situation for Drury. I don’t see Chytil as a center moving forward even though Drury recently said he does see it. Barron might make a good 3C one day but prob needs more seasoning and some time before being ready. Most people have them both as better suited to wing.

Also, is it me or do the NYR seem to have an organizational aversion to drafting and developing centers? Very few really good centers have been drafted as they tend to get them through trade and free agency.

And, does Gallant finally break up the trio of pairs? Kreider/Zibanejad, Strome/Panarin, Kakko/Chytil. Should they name Kreider captain, would it be a smart move to slide him to the 3rd line and ease that burden on him a bit while simultaneously giving Laffy a good look on the top line?

Let’s stick with the Rangers for one more set of questions.  If you’re looking for a proven option, an offer sheet probably isn’t the best route to try to go.  Even if they find an impact center they like, how much will it cost to get them to sign and get the team to walk away?  Carolina more than doubled Jesperi Kotkaniemi’s value and even then, it was far from a guarantee that Montreal wouldn’t match.  Let’s say there’s a center worth $6MM in the RFA class that is willing to sign an offer sheet, they’re going to have to offer substantially more than that to get the team to walk away.  That’s more cap space and draft picks down the drain and if you’re going upwards of $8MM to $9MM, wouldn’t they be better off just keeping Zibanejad?

I don’t see Zibanejad being moved in-season (I think he re-signs) and if the Rangers are in the mix, I don’t think Strome moves either.  There’s always risk to that approach but it’s hard to see them voluntarily weakening their playoff fortunes to add a pick or a prospect.

I don’t think the Rangers have an aversion to drafting centers.  Chytil and Lias Andersson were both drafted as first-round centers and that was just in 2017.  Kakko and Lafreniere are wingers, sure, but they were the consensus top options where they were picked; reaching for a center wouldn’t have made sense.  In between that, they added a pair of decent winger prospects and a pretty good defenseman in K’Andre Miller.  Sometimes, sticking with BPA over positional need pays off in terms of stockpiling assets.  Now, they’ll have to develop those into trade chips to fill the need unless Chytil is able to establish himself there.

Line combos are meant to be shuffled around so sure, Gallant will probably split them up at points, especially in training camp.  Kreider will be on the third line down the road but if they want to keep his value high (if they have eyes on trading him for cap flexibility purposes), moving him down would make that hard.  That would also take the captaincy off the table.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Zibanejad is named captain if they get an extension worked out before the season starts.

Jack10: Which prospect(s) from the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning will have the biggest impact, if any after their free agent signings, during the upcoming season in which they have lost their entire 3rd line from their back-to-back championships?

I mentioned him in a recent mailbag but I’ll go again with Alex Barre-Boulet here.  He produced at a high-end rate in junior.  He went to the minors and produced at a high-end rate in both of his full seasons while averaging more than a point per game in limited action last year.  His NHL numbers don’t stand out – three goals in 15 games – but it was his first taste of NHL action.  He’s someone I see having a limited role to start but working his way up into an important secondary scoring role before too long.

He’s slightly more proven but I’ll also add Mathieu Joseph to the mix.  He may not be a true prospect but he’s only a few months older than Barre-Boulet.  He has had a limited role so far in his career but he’s someone who should play higher in the lineup now.  He has produced in the past and if he does this season, he’ll be a very interesting restricted free agent next summer with salary arbitration rights.

The Duke: Let’s once again dust off the Mailbag’s Crystal Ball, which sees all & knows all: 1. Fastest path to – and most scoring success in – a top-six role between Newhook, Krebs, Veleno & Tomasino? 2. Brightest scoring future between Eklund, Raymond & Holtz? And lastly 3. the top three scoring forwards in NJ’s next 3-4 years? As always, much thanks.

1) The fastest path should be Nashville’s Philip Tomasino as there’s a very good chance he’ll be in that role this season.  The Predators didn’t exactly add up front this summer with an eye on giving some youngsters like him and Eeli Tolvanen a chance to step up.  Alex Newhook will get there at some point but it won’t be this season.  Peyton Krebs will need some time in the minors and Joseph Veleno I suspect will be more of a high-end third liner than a top-six guy.  Long term, Newhook might have the best path to success if he eventually ascends to the 2C role in Colorado but for the upcoming season, Tomasino should have the most points.

2) If we go strictly with SHL success, it’d be William Eklund who had a nice showing with Djurgardens last season where he was a teammate of Alexander Holtz.  But I’ll take Lucas Raymond, who is going to be a focal point of Detroit’s rebuild that will eventually come to an end, to slightly outscore the others.  All three should be impact players before too long though.

3) I expect Jack Hughes to continue to develop offensively so he’ll certainly be in that mix.  So, too, should Nico Hischier.  Holtz won’t play enough to have a shot at that and I don’t see many high-scoring forwards coming out of the rest of their group.  I’d like to take Dougie Hamilton as I think he’ll out-produce the rest of their forwards over that stretch but he’s a defenseman.  I’m not sold on Yegor Sharangovich being a key long-term piece for them but he’ll be around long enough to get an honest look so I’ll give him the slight edge for the third forward slot.

ericl: If the Bruins struggle to find a center who plays well with Hall, who are some centers that could be available as the trade deadline approaches that could be possible trade targets?

Max Domi would be one but I touched on that scenario earlier this month already so I won’t get into that one here.  I suspect the target would be a rental with an eye on extending the right fit which is basically what they did with Taylor Hall.  A lot will depend on where teams are at the deadline as to whether they’re selling or not so keep in mind that these names could wind up not being available midseason.

I’d look at someone like Joe Pavelski as a primary target if the Stars aren’t in the playoff race.  Dallas would need to retain and Boston would still need to send a salary offset but if they’re making one last run with this core and their internal options can’t get the job done, I would be surprised if he wasn’t Plan ‘A’.

Ryan Strome’s future with the Rangers is in question and if they’re not in the mix, he’s someone that could move.  He’s another question mark but his price tag would be more affordable.  Paul Stastny would be a good fit if Winnipeg is out of contention and now that his AAV is lower, Ryan Getzlaf is more palatable at the deadline as well.  I doubt all of these players will be available but if they’re thinking about a possible rental player already, these players could very well be on the list.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Toronto’s playoff potential, Philadelphia’s summer shuffle and goaltending situation, predictions for some surprises this season, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

jimmertee: Can the Leafs ever win in the playoffs with Matthews on the team and the core that’s getting paid so much money but don’t produce in the playoffs? How long do the Leafs stick with that core?

I think they can definitely win a round although that’s about as far as I’m willing to go this season; Tampa Bay is in their division after all and would be the likely favorite in what would be a second-round matchup.  They’ve come close enough in recent years and have done some things well; a good bounce here and there and they’d have won a series already.  So no, this core isn’t doomed to lose forever and they can definitely get over the proverbial hump.

There really isn’t an easy jumping-off point with this core, especially among their four high-priced forwards.  High-paid players are hard enough to move and getting top value for them will be even harder.  It’s not that those players aren’t any good but moving and matching money is going to be tough for a while.  The overall core group will weaken as the flattened salary cap ultimately prevents players from re-signing but I believe they’re locked into this team structure for a few more years yet.

wreckage: Do you see anyone declining an invite to play at the Olympics?

I’m assuming you’re asking on the political and public pressure fronts.  Lots can change as we get closer to February so this answer may not hold up in the end but I’m going to say no.  There hasn’t been a chance for an NHL player to participate in eight years so it’s going to be the first opportunity for many and the last chance for many others.  It’s hard to pass up on that.

There’s also the fact that the NHL isn’t overly enthusiastic about long-term participation in this event.  There’s a commitment to try for 2026 but after that, if they can rekindle and make money off the World Cup, they’re going to push for that so Olympic participation is hardly a guarantee.  With the opportunities being so infrequent, I just can’t see anyone declining for that reason.  Players will withdraw/decline due to injury but I think that will be the only reason.

Black Ace57: After a busy offseason, is this going to be the make-or-break year for the Flyers? At this point, if they can’t play up to expectations is there really any option but retooling for a year or two?

It sure feels like there’s a lot riding on this season, doesn’t it?  GM Chuck Fletcher has made several key changes to their roster with the additions of Cam Atkinson, Ryan Ellis, and Rasmus Ristolainen with the sole design of getting back to the playoffs and doing some damage when they get there.  If that doesn’t happen, changes are going to be made.

Claude Giroux is an unrestricted free agent next summer and he’s someone whose odds of returning will likely directly be tied to Philadelphia’s success.  Once James van Riemsdyk moves to being an expiring contract which happens next summer, he’s likelier to be gone as well.  Those two leaving would be another significant retooling.  We’ll see what happens with Ristolainen, another pending UFA, as well.

With the commitments they have on the books already – nearly $66MM in a dozen players per CapFriendly – a big overhaul seems less likely so while there could be a big name or two coming and going again, most of the core would stay intact so I like your classification of a retool instead of a rebuild in that situation.

Emoney123: Do the Flyers have a goalie problem? Hart is coming off a down year so should he be looking over his shoulder at Sandstrom, Ersson, Ustimenko, Ross, Tomek, and Fedotov? Is there a generational talent in there somewhere or just prospects hyped by the organization?

I’ll answer the second one first.  No, there isn’t a generational goalie in the pipeline.  I’m not even sure there’s an NHL starting goalie in there let alone a rare elite talent.  Samuel Ersson has some upside but he needs to do well in North America before calling him good enough to potentially push Carter Hart for playing time.

So, is that a problem?  I’m not ready to call it that yet.  I expect Hart to bounce back playing behind an improved defensive group and even if he isn’t a long-term star netminder, they’ll settle for someone that’s capable of being a decent starter.  He’s 23, signed for three years and under team control for four.  That’s a good foundation and finding a capable second goalie is certainly doable although I don’t think they necessarily landed one in Martin Jones who they’re also hoping will benefit behind a better defense.  If they have to reallocate some cap space to goaltending, they should be able to get a better backup to push Hart and, in the process, give them at a minimum a serviceable tandem.  If you have that, it’s not a problem.

In the meantime, adding a quality goalie prospect should be fairly high on the priority list.

YzerPlan19: Predictions for Bennett and Reinhart in Florida’s top six? Can Reinhart get 30 goals playing on Barkov’s wing? Did they bring him in to add more offense or does he slot in at 3C? Can Bennett exorcise his demons and continue on a point per game clip as 2C with Huberdeau?

I can’t see Florida paying a first-round pick and a pretty good goalie prospect in Devon Levi to have Sam Reinhart play on the third line.  He’s there to be an impact scorer and will be in their top six, potentially on the wing alongside Aleksander Barkov.  I think he’s absolutely capable of scoring 30 this season.  Very quietly, he scored at a 38-goal pace last season on a Buffalo team that was bereft of offense.  Put him in a more offensive-oriented environment while still being with a high-end center and 30 is definitely attainable.

Bennett, to me, is one of the biggest wildcards in the league.  I don’t think he’s going to be able to keep playing at a point-per-game pace as he did after the trade.  10 regular season games is a pretty small sample size as is five playoff contests.  But he absolutely can put up more than he was providing with Calgary.  If he had a 45-50-point season while being a capable center and playing with plenty of grit, I think they’d take that.  If he can hover closer to that point per game mark though, his contract will wind up being one of the better bargains in the league.

pawtucket: What are your top surprises in each division? Could be team, player, standings, whatever.

Atlantic: Will Butcher (Buffalo) gets back to being an impact offensive defenseman.  He was a bit better down the stretch in New Jersey but was still given away (with retention).  He’s not going to a winning environment but he will have a chance to play a bigger role and has the offensive skills to be a real weapon.  With his lowered price tag ($2.822MM after retention), he becomes one of the most sought-after rentals at the trade deadline.

Metropolitan: Columbus doesn’t bottom out and finish last in the division.  They’ve blown up their roster and at some point, one of their two pending UFA goalies is going to have to go as well.  The end result is a mishmash of players that are supposed to have the Blue Jackets contending for the top pick.  They’re not making the playoffs but they’ll be more competitive than many realize at and the end of the day, someone else is last in the Metro.

Central: Vladimir Tarasenko (St. Louis) is still with the Blues after the trade deadline.  There’s a mutual desire for a change of scenery and he has been in all sorts of trade speculation but they don’t want to give him away in case he bounces back.  Tarasenko produces close to a 20-goal level which still isn’t a good return on a $7.5MM AAV but it’s enough that they decide to hold onto him.  Many expect him to move – particularly since they need to re-sign Robert Thomas – but someone else becomes the cap casualty to make that happen.

Pacific: Nolan Patrick is this year’s Chandler Stephenson.  Stephenson’s trade to Vegas gave him a chance to play a bigger role and he certainly made the most of it.  Now, Patrick, freed somewhat from the expectations that come from being a second-overall pick, has a similar opportunity and puts up 35-40 points, giving the Golden Knights the center depth they’ve lacked lately.  He’s not going to be the number one that would make a huge difference but he’ll be a big part of their secondary core, not too shabby for a reclamation project.

Read more