Free Agent Frustration: Kris Russell Is This Year’s Cody Franson
Nearly one full month into free agency, defenseman Kris Russell remains on the market and looking for his next employment opportunity. Russell is the highest ranking UFA still unsigned from Pro Hockey Rumors top-50 list and despite some earlier reported interest, there doesn’t appear to be much movement currently in his market. In many ways, the slow-moving nature of Russell’s free agency is reminiscent of the case of Cody Franson, who just last summer was forced to wait until September before signing a free agent contract.
Both players entered their respective free agency periods among the top options available at their position and with the expectation of signing lucrative, long-term deals. Like Russell, the market for Franson never seemed to materialize last summer and he ended up getting a two-year deal from Buffalo with an AAV of $3.325MM. It’s becoming more and more likely that Russell will end up having to do the same; ink a short-term contract for far less money than most pundits imagined at the outset of free agency. PHR predicted a four-year deal for the veteran defender with an AAV of $4.5MM. At this point it doesn’t appear Russell will be able to secure a pact anywhere near that total value.
Even though Franson and Russell are both defenseman and have experienced similar frustrations in free agency, albeit a year apart, the two players are more unlike than alike in terms of style and production. Franson was a darling of the advanced stats crowd due primarily to his strong offensive contributions at five-on-five. During the three-season stretch from 2012-13 to 2014-15, Franson tallied 0.94 Pts/60 in five-on-five situations, a figure better than that of Keith Yandle (0.91) over the same period. Of course we know Yandle is widely considered to be one of the top offensive blue liners in the game and was recently rewarded with a rich contract from Florida as a result.
Russell, on the other hand, is more of an old school favorite. He blocks a ton of shots, leading the league by averaging 3.4 blocked-shots-per-game this past season. Russell is fairly mobile and produces enough offense to draw the description of puck-mover. However he struggles in the possession department, ranking 114th out of 124 defensemen who played at least 1,000 minutes at five-on-five with a Corsi For % (CF%) of 45.3%. Because of that, Russell doesn’t rate too well among the analytically-inclined.
It’s possible that Russell’s market has been adversely affected due to more teams utilizing advanced statistics in their decision-making process. Then again it was only five months ago that Dallas agreed to ship two prospects and a conditional second-round draft choice to acquire his services. Chances are there are plenty of teams that still value what Russell does well and that he’ll sign a contract soon enough. Like Franson a year ago, Russell has had to wait longer than expected and likely won’t get either the term or the money originally predicted, but he’s too good not to land on his feet somewhere before the start of the season.
Snapshots: Kane, Elliott, Mrazek, Hrivik, Gormley
Evander Kane‘s most recent legal woes has led to speculation Buffalo could look to move the talented yet troubled forward. One potential suitor might be the Vancouver Canucks, who are thought to be interested in adding a scoring line winger. Kane of course is a B.C. native and played his junior hockey as a member of the Vancouver Giants of the WHL. Along those lines, Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Sun makes the case the Canucks need a player of Kane’s ilk and should pursue a trade. Meanwhile, Jason Botchford, writing for The Province, takes the opposite position and lists five reasons the club should avoid Kane.
It’s hard to imagine Buffalo being able to find a trade partner at this point, at least until Kane’s legal issues are resolved. For one, the NHL is monitoring the situation and while they say they aren’t considering punishment for Kane, the possibility of such can’t be dismissed pending the results of the criminal proceedings. Second, at this point in the summer most clubs are capped out, making a move to acquire Kane and his $5.25MM cap charge difficult to complete.
More notes emanating around the NHL…..
- After finishing dead last in the league in both save percentage and goals against average, the Calgary Flames completely turned over their goaltending position, dealing for Brian Elliott at the Entry Draft and signing Chad Johnson as a free agent. The duo replaces the combination of Karri Ramo, Joni Ortio, Niklas Backstrom and Jonas Hiller between the pipes for the Flames. Elliott, the presumptive starter, was introduced to the Calgary media Wednesday and wasted little time endearing himself to the followers of his new team.
- The recent signing of RFA Petr Mrazek has pushed the Red Wings to a figure almost $5MM over the 2016-17 salary cap ceiling. As my colleague, Nate Brown, wrote earlier this morning, the concern is that GM Ken Holland has invested too much of his resources in role players and/or rewarding his own to exorbitant contract extensions. While the concern may be warranted, the Red Wings immediate issue is becoming cap compliant ahead of the start of the upcoming campaign. But as MLive’s Brendan Savage writes, the Wings will likely place veteran forwards Johan Franzen ($3.95MM cap hit) and Joe Vitale ($1.12MM cap charge) on LTIR, thus freeing up just more than $5MM in space and bringing the Red Wings into compliance.
- The New York Rangers have come to terms with their lone remaining RFA, agreeing to a new contract with F Marek Hrivik, per the club’s website. According to Larry Brooks of the New York Post, Hrivik received a two-way deal which will pay him $600K at the NHL level. Hrivik will go to camp and have an opportunity to compete for one of the final forward spots for the Rangers, though it’s likely he will again spend most of the year in the minors. Last season Hrivik saw action in five NHL games, picking up his first career point. In 68 AHL contests with Hartford, Hrivik netted a career-high 41 points and 29 assists.
- Former first-round pick Brandon Gormley has agreed to join the New Jersey Devils on a one-year contract worth $650K at the NHL level. Gormley, selected 13th overall in 2010 by Arizona, spent last season as a member of the Colorado Avalanche organization following a September trade. In 26 NHL games this past season, Gormley notched a single assist and recorded eight PIMs. Gormley looked to have a bright professional future after an accomplished junior career. He played for a QMJHL championship club with Moncton in 2010 and won a Memorial Cup as a member of Shawinigan in 2012. He has yet to translate his amateur success into a regular role in the NHL and looks to be earmarked for depth duty in the Devils organization.
Latest On Connor Murphy
While news has started trickling out about the Coyotes’ inability to sign RFA Tobias Rieder, Arizona may be closing in on one of their other remaining unsigned players. Craig Morgan of AZSports reports that Brian Bartlett, the agent for restricted free agent Connor Murphy expects to have a deal done by the end of the week.
Murphy, 23, saw his role with the Coyotes improve drastically last season especially following the trade of Keith Yandle. After the trade, he logged over 22:30 per night (up from 19:50 pre-trade) and held his own against tougher opponents. The bone-crushing hitter isn’t an offensive or possession dynamo, though he did contribute 17 points last season, and saw some limited powerplay action.
Even with the addition of Luke Schenn, Murphy will probably slot in beside another newcomer in Alex Goligoski on the second pairing next season, with fellow unsigned RFA Michael Stone skating alongside superstar Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Obviously, these pairings will be settled in camp, but Murphy will try to continue his strong development from first-round pick (20th overall in 2011) to top-four defenseman.
Predators Sign Calle Jarnkrok To $12MM Deal
In an interesting move, the Nashville Predators have signed Calle Jarnkrok to a six-year, $12MM deal, according to a team release. Jarnkrok was set to head to arbitration on August 4th, but will now not only avoid it this summer but for his entire career; he’ll become an unrestricted free agent at the completion of this deal.
Not often (if ever) do you see a player commit to such a low salary for so long, but Jarnkrok must have appreciated the security of a long-term deal. He’ll earn just $2MM per season through 2021-22, making his offensive development almost irrelevant.
The Swedish centerman scored 16 goals and 30 points last season and saw his ice-time skyrocket to over 16 minutes a night. He was used in all situations, seeing time on both the powerplay and penalty kill, and is regarded as a building block for the Predators going forward.
His deal represents almost no risk to the Preds, as $2MM is a number given out regularly to third and fourth line players in today’s NHL – not to mention if the cap goes up over the next few seasons. If Jarnkrok can build on his performance from last season, and continue to put up 15-20 goals, he’ll be one of the best bargains in the league as he approaches his 30th birthday.
After signing Jarnkrok and Petter Granberg, Nashville has now avoided arbitration with both of their players, earning them an additional 48-hour buyout window that would start on Monday.
Just three players who filed for arbitration remain unsigned, with none actually taking part in a hearing thus far.
Petr Mrazek Signs Two-Year Deal
Just before his arbitration hearing took place Wednesday, Petr Mrazek and the Detroit Red Wings have come to a two-year agreement worth a total of $8MM. Elliotte Friedman tells us that the goaltender will earn $3.85MM in the first season, and $4.15MM in the second.
On Monday we profiled Mrazek’s arbitration case, projecting a two-year contract with an AAV of $4.125MM. This deal obviously comes in just below that, and looks like a win for the Red Wings, who still have to deal with the large contract that Jimmy Howard is still owed. Howard will earn $5.29MM for the next three years, making him an extremely expensive backup if Mrazek has truly taken over in net.
Again, player and team came to an agreement just before the deadline, as it seems no one truly wants to go to arbitration this summer. It can be a somewhat ugly experience for players, as the team needs to point out their flaws in order to get a lower price.
Mrazek will still be a restricted free agent when the deal expires, and at only 26 would be ready to earn top money. Look for the Red Wings to deal Howard and try to work towards a long-term extension with the Czech goaltender next summer.
Maxim Lapierre To Receive Try-Out With Rangers
After we profiled five players who are candidates for a professional try out (PTO) with a team in upcoming training camps, it seems as though one is set to be handed out to a former NHLer who has been playing in Europe.
Maxim Lapierre, a veteran of 614 NHL games who split last season in Sweden and Switzerland, will receive a PTO with the New York Rangers, according to Nicola Berger of the NZZ (New Zurich Times). In a piece by TVA Sports back in May, Lapierre was quoted as saying that he was ready to head back to the NHL, be it on a PTO or two-way deal.
While nothing will be confirmed until closer to camp, Lapierre would represent the perfect candidate for the PTO system. After scoring 15 goals and 28 points for Montreal in 2008-09, Lapierre was never able to duplicate that success and found himself bouncing around fourth-lines across the NHL.
Now 31, Lapierre will try and crack an NHL roster once again, to provide leadership and grit to a young forward group. The Rangers will see if there is anything left in the former second-round pick, as it’s a no-risk, low-reward move for a team looking to head back to the playoffs.
Western Notes: Chayka, Sydor, Eberle
When the Arizona Coyotes gave then 26-year old John Chayka their GM job, many in the hockey world cringed at the thought of the analytic community finally having a poster boy at the top of an NHL franchise. Chayka promised to bring with him the newer possession-based analysis of NHL players, and today summed it up quite nicely in an interview with Dan Rosen of NHL.com:
“The philosophy is fairly simple. It’s when we don’t have the puck, recover the puck as quickly as possible. There are all kinds of different forms where you can gain possession of the puck, some of them are physical and some of them are non-physical, so I think you need a blend to have both. Once you get the puck back it’s to transition the puck. Defense isn’t about defending, it’s about getting the puck in the forwards’ hands and getting the puck moving into the offensive zone. It’s about transitioning.”
The phrase “defense isn’t about defending” will stick out as a sort of mantra for the analytics push, as the league continues to move away from players who can impose themselves physically in their own end, but can’t move the puck when they end up with it. His team has added Alex Goligoski, a possession darling who moves the puck well, but has also signed Luke Schenn and Jamie McGinn, both players who aren’t so revered for their new-age skills. It’ll be interesting to watch what Chayka does in the future, and whether he breeds a level of success rarely seen in the desert of Arizona.
- The Chicago Wolves of the AHL have hired former NHLers Darryl Sydor and Daniel Tkaczuk as assistant coaches for 2016-17, adding to a group that is led by Craig Berube. The St. Louis Blues affiliate went 33-35-8 last season, and will look to improve on that record this year. Sydor, a 19-year NHL veteran played in over 1200 games in his career, and has been coaching as an assistant with the Minnesota Wild for the past five seasons. Tkaczuk, an AHL journeyman who made it into just 19 NHL games during his career, coached with the Kitchener Rangers of the OHL last season.
- Jordan Eberle has hired the “Shot Doc” to help him with his shooting ability for next season. Ron Johnson, a skills coach who has worked with Joe Pavelski and Ryan Kesler in the past has been known for improving things like grip mechanics and puck protection. If Eberle can improve on the 14.5% shooting percentage he put up last season, he could climb back above the 30-goal mark for the second time in his career. Eberle has 145 career goals in 425 games, and is a near-lock for 25 each season.
Metropolitan Notes: Buyouts, Mahoney, Schenn
After finalizing the deal with Kevin Hayes this afternoon, the New York Rangers have come to terms with each of the four players who filed for salary arbitration this summer (Hayes, Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller and Dylan McIlrath) before any of them had a hearing. With it, comes an additional buyout window that will start on Monday and last for 48 hours.
In this window, the team may perform a buyout on a player who fulfills certain criteria. Many speculated during the last window that the team could buy out defenseman Dan Girardi, and as the Rangers move closer to the cap, this remains a possibility. Girardi’s play has deteriorated over the past few seasons, and he carries a cap hit of $5.5MM for the next four years.
If the team were to buy out Girardi, they’d be paying him $10MM total, spread over eight years. His cap hits would be as follows (via General Fanager):
2016-17 – $1.75MM
2017-18 – $2.75MM
2018-19 – $3.75MM
2019-20 – $3.75MM
2020-21 – $1.25MM
2021-22 – $1.25MM
2022-23 – $1.25MM
2023-24 – $1.25MM.
There has been no word from Rangers camp that Girardi is headed for a buyout, but we’ll keep an eye on the situation as it unfolds. Here are some more notes from the Metropolitan division:
- While there has been relatively little news out of Las Vegas since the city was granted an expansion franchise, Elliotte Friedman is hearing that the team is after Washington Capitals assistant general manager Ross Mahoney, and has asked the club for it’s permission to interview him. While there hasn’t been any response from the Capitals, Mahoney worked with new Las Vegas GM George McPhee for over a decade in Washington and may see it as a new opportunity.
- The last thing we heard about Brayden Schenn is that there has been “no progress of any kind” on a new contract, and the young forward is getting closer and closer to his arbitration hearing. Each player so far that has been scheduled before Schenn’s July 25th hearing has come to an agreement, but so far it doesn’t sound like there is any movement from either camp. The Philadelphia centerman is coming off his best year as a pro, one that saw him score 26 goals and 59 points in 80 games. His continued development will be a discussion point in arbitration, as the former fifth-overall pick has increased his point total each season of his career.
Minor Transactions: 07/22/16
Here is where we will keep track of all the day’s minor transactions:
- The Chicago Wolves of the AHL have brought back the second-leading goal scorer in team history, as Brett Sterling returns from Europe to re-join his old club. The 32-year old former fifth-round pick of the Atlanta Thrashers once scored 55 goals in a single season for the Wolves, and has 225 in his AHL career.
- 39-year old Eric Boulton has re-signed with the New York Islanders on a one-year, two-way deal. The long-time enforcer has played 654 games at the NHL level and has racked up 142 fighting majors during that time. He’ll provide a measure of protection and leadership for the young players for the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL.
- After struggling to find consistent NHL playing time last season, Andre Benoit has decided to take his talents elsewhere. The veteran of 181 NHL games has signed with the Malmo Redhawks of the Swedish Elite League. Benoit played his best season in 2013-14, when he recorded 28 points in 79 games for the Colorado Avalanche.
The Holdup On Auston Matthews Contract
As discussed here, Auston Matthews is one of only four unsigned players selected in the top-10 of this June’s entry draft. Two of those players, Clayton Keller (7th overall to Arizona) and Tyson Jost (10th overall to Colorado) have firm commitments to NCAA programs and are not expected to ink their Entry Level Contracts (ELC) until they are ready to turn pro. That leaves Matthews and #5 overall choice Olli Juolevi as the only players in the top-10 realistically expected to sign their first pro contracts that have not already done so.
Kevin McGran writes about the impasse with Matthews here.
Lou Lamoriello is a savvy, veteran GM who usually closes deals on his terms and we already know he isn’t particularly keen on including performance bonuses in rookie contracts. However in this instance, he may have to give ground. Matthews was the consensus #1 overall draft choice in June and each of last year’s top-two selections, Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, received the maximum bonus value permitted under the CBA ($2.85MM on top of the $925K in base salary).
As McGran discusses, the implications of Toronto sticking to their guns may be felt far beyond this single negotiation. Veteran players, both who currently suit up for the Leafs and future free agent targets, may not think too highly of the organization trying to squeeze a few measly bucks from a young player widely-hailed as the future of the franchise..
Additionally, as we’ve seen in Colorado with Tyson Barrie and Ryan O’Reilly, this type of contentious negotiation now can potentially lead to bigger problems later. Should Matthews fulfill his promise as an elite, two-way #1 center, extending him upon the completion of his entry level contract might prove to be far more difficult should Toronto continue to hold firm on bonus demands.
Granted, there is still plenty of time for an agreement to be reached (roughly two months) but this should have been a relatively straight-forward negotiation. The second overall pick, Patrik Laine, signed for $3.575MM, assuming he meets his bonuses. Pierre-Luc Dubois and Jesse Puljujarvi, chosen third and fourth overall, respectively, can each earn up to $3.425MM per season. It’s hard to imagine any team making a logical case for the #1 overall pick to not maximize his earning potential when each of the players selected after him have contracts in place that can pay out close to the maximum amount.
Like everyone else, I expect a deal to be wrapped up in plenty of time for Matthews to begin the season with the Leafs. However, I can understand why Toronto fans might be feeling a little uneasy with the overall tenor and pace of negotiations.