Tampa Bay Still Trying To Acquire A Defenseman
Even though they’ve already acquired one of the best defensive prospects in the game, the Tampa Bay Lightning are looking for more immediate help on the back end. That’s what Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes, saying that he thinks they might land one tonight at the draft. The Lightning of course opened up one spot when they moved Jason Garrison to the Vegas Golden Knights, and aren’t yet guaranteeing an NHL role for Mikhail Sergachev to start the year.
With rumors bouncing around about Travis Hamonic, Marco Scandella and the crop of defenders Vegas selected, there shouldn’t be any lack of options for the Lightning. Both the Islanders and Wild are rumored to be asking for a first-round pick (and in New York’s case two) to start the negotiations, something that they may not want to part with. If the Lightning did move it, they wouldn’t pick until #48, a selection they received for Brian Boyle at the deadline.
With Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman firmly entrenched as two of the top four, and Jake Dotchin expected to fill a role after a surprisingly good rookie debut, the other three spots are more up in the air. Braydon Coburn, Andrej Sustr and Slater Koekkoek would slot into those spots right now, but the former is becoming less effective by the day and the latter two are both still currently restricted free agents (as is Dotchin). As above, Sergachev could find his way into that group at the beginning of the season or the team could go with several other minor league or prospect types, but it’s clear they’d like a real improvement somewhere.
After moving so much salary out in the last few months, the Lightning could legitimately go after an unrestricted free agent as well, something that was completely out of the question before moving Garrison, Jonathan Drouin and Valtteri Filppula. If they don’t find a solution at the draft or in the next few days, expect them to start talking to free agents when the negotiation windows open next week.
Vegas Golden Knights Trade Breakdown
The Vegas Golden Knights have already completed ten trades this offseason, wheeling and dealing around the expansion draft with a third of the NHL. While more deals will undoubtedly drop tomorrow and in the next few days, these first ten transactions have set the team up for success. We’ll take a moment to break down why each trade happened, though there may be more dominoes to fall regarding some of them.
Buffalo sends their 2017 sixth-round pick to Vegas
In the first trade of the night, Vegas acquires a late round pick in order to not select G Linus Ullmark from the Sabres. Golden Knights GM George McPhee explained on the Awards broadcast that they were down to two players, Ullmark and William Carrier and the Sabres made their decision for them with a pick. For what it’s worth, our mock draft had the same split decision over the two players with Ullmark eventually ending up as the selection.
Golden Knights Will Not Select Young Lightning Defensemen
It has been rumored for some time that the Tampa Bay Lightning and GM Steve Yzerman had struck a deal with the Vegas Golden Knights and GM George McPhee to steer them away from certain players. The Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith has added some concrete names to that speculation this afternoon, reporting that Vegas would not select young Bolts’ defensemen Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek. The pair were left exposed as Tampa Bay chose to protect Norris Trophy finalist Victor Hedman, his partner Anton Stralman, and veteran Braydon Coburn.
Dotchin, 23, skated in 35 games with the Lightning as a rookie in 2016-17 and recorded 11 points along the way. At 6’3″, 210-lbs., the bruising blue liner played major minutes for Tampa and proved to be a reliable stay-at-home option. Koekkoek, also 23, was the tenth overall pick in the 2012 NHL Draft by the Bolts, and has played in 41 career NHL games over the past three season, including 29 this past year. Although Koekkoek has been able to move the puck well and score at the AHL level, he has yet to find the same consistency and success at the NHL level. Nevertheless, he has shown promise and the Lightning were not willing to lose he or Dotchin for nothing
So what is the deal that protected the pair? Speculation earlier today from Smith was that the Lightning may be offering up the rights to prominent Russian prospect Nikita Gusev as part of the deal. Smith pondered if that would be in exchange for protecting the young defenseman or in exchange for selecting the bad contract of veteran blue liner Jason Garrison. While it still remains unknown who the Knights will take from Tampa, the confirmation that it will not be Dotchin or Koekkoek alone could mean that Gusev is on his way to Vegas, where former SKA St. Petersburg teammate Vadim Shipachyov has already signed.
Expansion Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning
We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
Steve Yzerman fired the first shot in the pre-expansion draft trade market by acquiring Mikhail Sergachev from Montreal for Jonathan Drouin, a move that gave the Lightning flexibility both with the cap and their expansion protection list. It also filled a need with the Bolts on defense. With that in mind, it makes Yzerman and the Lightning’s decisions slightly easier as to who to protect and who to expose. But there are still some tough choices to make.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards: Steven Stamkos (NMC), Ryan Callahan (NMC), Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn, Vladislav Namestnikov, J.T. Brown, Erik Condra, Cedric Paquette, Ondrej Palat (RFA), Tyler Johnson
Defensemen: Victor Hedman (NMC), Jason Garrison, Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, Andrej Sustr (RFA), Slater Koekkoek, Jake Dotchin
Goaltender: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Kristers Gudlevskis (RFA)
Notable Exemptions
Mikhail Sergachev, Brett Howden
Key Decisions
Unloading Drouin certainly helped from a financial and expansion list aspect. This makes it somewhat easier for forwards to put on the protected list.
Ondrej Palat and Alex Killorn are both choices that benefitted from Drouin being moved. Killorn netted 19 goals while Palat will continue to get better. Stamkos and Callahan both have NMCs. Despite fighting injury and not matching his production from 2014-15, Johnson is too good of a talent to leave exposed.
It’s on defense where tougher decisions need to be made, and it will come down to three players. Hedman and Stralman will both be protected, Hedman because he has a no-movement clause and Stralman is key to the Lightning blueline. Jason Garrison and Braydon Coburn are both carrying heavier hits for the cap and will most likely be left alone when they’re exposed. Garrison could hypothetically be taken with his deal ending at the conclusion of the 2017-18 season, but the $4.6MM hit would probably scare Vegas away.
That leaves three choices to protect: Andrej Sustr, Jake Dotchin, and Slater Koekkoek. Sustr is a restricted free agent and won’t be able to command much in the way of money after having a down year. That doesn’t make him exempt from being exposed. If anything, seeing his numbers drop with a number of other options pounding on the door for the big club could make him the odd man out. However, he’s still an economical option and any leverage he had took a hit with the acquisition of Sergachev, who if scouting is correct, should find time on the Tampa blueline next season. But the problem with protecting Sustr is that Tampa would risk losing two young, and talented defensemen for nothing. In the same breath, would the Bolts want to possibly lose a steady defenseman who is only 26?
That leads to Dotchin and Koekkoek. Dotchin just turned 23, and registered 11 points in 35 games this season. The problem is, as Lightning blog Raw Charge pointed out, his sample size was limited compared to Koekkoek while being paired with Hedman. The 23-year-old Koekkoek logged 41 games over the past two seasons, but played strong for AHL affiliate Syracuse during the Calder Cup playoffs. Picking between them is essentially splitting hairs. Koekkoek appears to have the higher ceiling, and plays a cleaner game than Dotchin. Though they play different games, Yzerman might prefer a more disciplined, puck moving defenseman when choosing who to protect. At the same time, Dotchin plays a physical game, and can move the puck as well. He’s not afraid to muck it up, and provides a presence that protects his teammates on the ice–while still contributing on the score sheet. As Tampa Bay Times beat writer Joe Smith wrote, Dotchin has stood out to management, especially in the NHL and AHL during Syracuse’s Calder Cup Final run.
With two younger defensive prospects and after having a less than stellar season, predict Sustr to be exposed and Koekkoek protected. Don’t be surprised, as many others have written, if Yzerman pulls something off to keep all of his young defensemen so Dotchin remains in the fold.
Projected Protection List
F – Steven Stamkos (NMC)
F – Ryan Callahan (NMC)
F – Tyler Johnson (RFA)
F – Nikita Kucherov
F – Vladislav Namestnikov
F – Alex Killorn
F – Ondrej Palat (RFA)
D – Victor Hedman (NMC)
D – Anton Stralman
D –Slater Koekkoek (RFA)
Vasilevskiy is truly the only option to protect as 24-year-old netminder Kristers Gudlevskis is unlikely to be taken with other options presumably available from other teams. Of the decisions, it seems to be the least of Tampa’s worries.
The Lightning, despite missing the playoffs and sustaining injuries to one key player after another, still have a strong lineup that will absolutely compete next season. Peddling Drouin off certainly helped matters, but the third player to protect defensively is a tough decision to make. At the end of the day, though, Yzerman has shown skills deft enough to take a challenging situation and somehow make it work out. Don’t be surprised if he finds a way to do it again.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Lightning Injury Notes: Stamkos, Johnson, Kucherov
Injuries are a harsh reality in the NHL and something each team is forced to deal with each season. Tampa Bay, however, has perhaps experienced more than their fair share of health woes this season, losing captain Steven Stamkos and gritty, two-way winger Ryan Callahan for much of the year. In addition, the team has had to manage at times without stalwart defenseman Anton Stralman as well as top-six forwards Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov for short stretches this season because of injuries. All told, the Lightning have used 33 different skaters this season with 30 appearing in at least 10 games.
While the injuries have derailed what many pundits thought would be a Stanley Cup contender, the Lighting have displayed tremendous resiliency and remain within striking distance of a postseason berth. Currently three points behind Boston for the final playoff spot in the east, Tampa Bay’s chances might get a shot in the arm as the team enters the final stretch. As Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes, Stamkos is close to returning and may play as early as tonight when the Lightning host the Montreal Canadiens.
Stamkos has been skating with the club for the last while and according to Smith, was one of the last players to leave the ice at the team’s optional skate Thursday. He was expected to be reevaluated yesterday and if all checks out, he could be in the Lightning lineup for the first time in nearly five months for tonight’s contest. Of course with another game slated for Sunday, head coach Jon Cooper would likely have to monitor the captain’s minutes but Stamkos’ return would certainly represent a much-needed boost to Tampa’s playoff chances.
- In the same article, Smith also touches on the status of center Tyler Johnson, who has missed the last 10 games with a lower-body injury. He finally joined Stamkos and the rest of his teammates on the ice for the first time in three weeks on Thursday and while that is a positive development, Smith points out that it’s “hard to tell” whether Johnson will be able to suit up this weekend following just one optional skating session. Johnson has posted 19 goals and 44 points in 64 games and is an important player in the team’s top-six as well as on the power play.
- Perhaps Tampa Bay’s best player, at least with Stamkos sidelined, Nikita Kucherov sat out Tampa Bay’s 5 – 3 win over Detroit Thursday night due to an illness. Smith notes that the bug has made it’s rounds over the last couple of months in Tampa, afflicting Jason Garrison and Victor Hedman as well as Cooper at various points. The hope is that Kucherov will be ready to go tonight. The 23-year-old Russian may well merit MVP consideration with his performance this season. Through 68 appearances, Kucherov has 38 goals and 80 points while averaging a career-high 19:34 of ice time per night. A healthy Kucherov along with the potential returns of Stamkos and Johnson would certainly make the team’s attach much more formidable and presuming the team is able to squeak into the playoffs, the Lightning should be a challenging out in the first round.
Garrioch’s Latest: Shattenkirk, Lightning, Jurco, Vegas
The recent run of the St. Louis Blues has all of a sudden made their decision regarding pending unrestricted free agent defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk a much more difficult one, writes Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun in his latest Insider Trading column. It has long been believed that the Blues – who aren’t expected to re-sign him – were hoping to move him in an effort to avoid losing him for nothing in July but with the team now sitting somewhat comfortably in a playoff spot, it’s a much tougher sell as moving him would hurt their fortunes considerably.
The asking price from GM Doug Armstrong remains quite high, including a first round pick, a high quality prospect, plus a third element. If he can get all of that in a return, moving him even while in a playoff spot would be a lot more palatable but there’s little indication at this time that anyone is willing to meet that price for a rental player, even the top one on the market.
Garrioch also has updates on several other goings-on around the league. As usual, the full column is worth a read but here are a handful of the highlights:
- Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is looking to free up some cap space beyond this season with players like Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Jonathan Drouin all headed for restricted free agency. A couple of players they’d like to move are defensemen Braydon Coburn and Jason Garrison. Coburn has two years left on his deal after this one with a $3.75MM cap hit while Garrison has one year remaining at $4.7MM. However, Yzerman will need to provide some sort of incentive to get a team to take on one of those deals and while it appears he’s willing to do so, the question becomes how much of a sweetener would they be willing to part with?
- On top of pending UFA Thomas Vanek, the Red Wings are looking to find a new home for winger Tomas Jurco. It came out last month that the 24 year was hoping to be dealt as he has spent a significant portion of this season as a healthy scratch. While it’s likely that GM Ken Holland would like to move some players with term left on their deals, that will be quite difficult as quite a few are on long-term pacts and are underachieving this season.
- Golden Knights GM George McPhee reached out to now-Canadiens coach Claude Julien after he was let go by the Bruins but clearly no deal was reached. Considering Julien was primed to be in a spot to be very selective about where he went if he waited until the offseason and the likelihood that the expansion team struggles out of the gate, he likely wouldn’t have been the right fit in Vegas anyways. The scribe suggests that former Florida bench boss Gerard Gallant remains the favorite to get the job although ex-Islanders coach Jack Capuano has also been interviewed.
Lightning Notes: Koekkoek, Callahan, Bishop
After trading Nikita Nesterov the other day to the Montreal Canadiens for a relatively small return, some thought that it would open the door for Slater Koekkoek‘s return to the team. Don’t count on it, as Steve Yzerman told Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times yesterday.
He’s an important part of our future, and I see a very bright future for him still. So if we need a left shot or we feel Slater will come up and play a lot, then I’ll bring him back up.
That’s a good point when it comes to the former 10th-overall pick. If he’s not going to play big minutes with the club, it may be better for his development to stay in the AHL. With Victor Hedman, Jason Garrison and Braydon Coburn locked into the left-side, it doesn’t seem like there would be a lot of time for him.
- The team is looking to pull off more moves in the near future, but one player that hasn’t been approached yet is Ryan Callahan. The injured alternate captain has just four points this season and holds a full no-movement clause in his contract. That means he’ll force protection in the upcoming expansion draft, a spot that the Lightning could really use for a different player. Players can opt to waive their NMC in order to be exposed at the draft, but since they’ve earned the right to have it in their contracts it’s hard to ask them.
- Smith says that the team does want to move Ben Bishop if possible before losing him for nothing this summer. The upcoming free agent has had a season troubled by injuries and inconsistency but still represents a potential upgrade in net for many contenders. A two-time finalist for the Vezina trophy, Bishop holds a career .919 save percentage.
- One of the reasons for the Nesterov trade apparently was Luke Witkowski, who the team didn’t want to lose on waivers. Instead they dealt Nesterov, who would have been a restricted free agent this summer for a team that will have a real cap crunch. Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Jonathan Drouin will all need new deals this summer.
Pacific Division Notes: Flames, Canucks, Oilers
The Calgary Flames have struggled in the early stretches of this season, and some of their fans have found a scapegoat: “The Wideman Effect”.
The belief is that since January 2016, when Dennis Wideman ran linesman Don Henderson from behind, ending the latter’s career, the referees have been biased against the Flames. Despite the catchy name, it appears that the perception just isn’t true. Sportsnet’s Mark Spector broke down the penalties called in the 47 games before the incident and the 46 since. While the Flames did see a nearly 50 per cent increase in penalties last season after the attack, they still spent more time on the power-play. Moving to this season, the Flames are the second-most penalized team in the NHL after the Bruins. But they’ve also had the fifth-most power-play opportunities of any team.
Fans can look no further than the struggles of Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, and Brian Elliott, and some questionable lineup choices on the blue line. Fresh off signing new contracts for $6.375MM and $6,75MM respectively, Monahan and Gaudreau have combined for just 11 points through 12 games. That’s eight less than last season at this time.
Elliott was traded for to stabilize the Flames wretched goaltending from last season, and so far has a sub-900 save percentage and a GAA over 3. Backup Chad Johnson has been better, but is still below league-average.
Finally, the Flames new coach Glen Gulutzan‘s usage of Dougie Hamilton has been weird this season. Hamilton scored 43 points last season while playing just under 20-minutes per game, but has fallen below 19 minutes this season and has been playing third-pairing at even-strength with lesser players.
- It has been an ugly stretch for the Canucks, who have lost seven games in a row after starting 4-0-0. They’ve fallen from first in the NHL to 26th. Even worse, the Canucks have scored just seven goals in that stretch and have been shutout in four of their last five games. The Blue Jackets outscored the Canucks’ entire losing streak in 38-minutes on Friday night, and they weren’t even done yet. Coach Willie Desjardins said he believes in their players and thinks they can turn it around, despite admitting this season’s losing has been tough on him. Desjardins is on the hot seat, considering GM Jim Benning believes the Canucks are a playoff team. However, Benning may not be entirely accurate in that belief: the Canucks are averaging just 1.45 goals-per-game, nearly a goal-and-a-half less than the league-average. Most prognosticators have the Canucks pegged as a real contender, not for the playoffs, but for the best draft lottery odds.
- Meanwhile, the Edmonton Oilers are sitting in first in the Western Conference after a hot start. They’ve cooled down a little, going 0-2-1 in the last week. Spector echoed a common sentiment about the team: if they can get their hands on a legit point-threat for their floundering power-play, then watch out. The Oilers were linked to Kevin Shattenkirk, P.K. Subban and Tyson Barrie over the summer, and more recently pending-UFA Brent Burns. In his article, Spector suggests Jason Garrison might be available in Tampa Bay as a cap casualty, though he’s another lefty; when healthy, five of the Oilers top-six defenders are left-handed.