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Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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With the trade deadline now just weeks away, we’re taking a closer look at each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?

Many people, including everyone’s favorite PHR writer, considered the Nashville Predators to be a dark horse candidate to win the Stanley Cup in 2016-17. While we are still a few months out from seeing if that comes to fruition, at this point in time the team looks an awful lot like the same team it was last year. The addition of P.K. Subban and what many suspected would be the best puck-moving defense in the NHL has been hindered by long injury absences to both top pair defensemen. Ryan Johansen is performing well, but still not up to the level that he exhibited with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Scoring bumps by captain Mike Fisher, Viktor Arvidsson, and Colin Wilson have been counteracted by drop-offs from James Neal, Craig Smith, and Mattias Ekholm. Overall, the teams middling numbers in goals for and goals against are eerily similar to what they were in 2015-16.

If this team is, for all intents and purposes, the same team it was last year, that’s not a bad thing. The 2015-16 Predators clinched the first wild card spot in the Western Conference and upset the Pacific-winning Anaheim Ducks in the first round. They then lost to the eventual conference champion San Jose Sharks, but took them seven games, which is more than the St. Louis Blues could do in the championship round. It was the best postseason performance in franchise history. However, the current iteration of the Predators is sitting in the second wild card spot, trailing the Blues and trying to hold off the Los Angeles Kings, and is on pace to finish five points shy of last year’s mark. They got off to a slows start and have had to grind their way back into the conversation. Although the numbers are similar, this year’s team feels just a little off. After an impressive 2015-16 campaign, instead of shocking the league with a triumphant sequel, the Predators are not even guaranteed a playoff spot this year, despite playing nearly identical hockey.

As always, Nashville is lousy with salary cap space. GM David Poile is one of the best there is and has already shown a willingness to make moves with the recent acquisitions of Cody McLeod and Vernon Fiddler. If Poile believes that this team has what it takes to go farther than any Predators have gone before, expect him to put that space, a nearly-full collection of draft picks, and quite a bit of prospect capital to work as the Trade Deadline grows closer.

Record

27-21-8, 4th in the Central Division, 8th in the Western Conference

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

Current Cap Space: $13,756,773

Deadline Cap Space: $18,571,644

45/50 contracts, via CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2017: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 5th, NSH 6th, NYR 6th, NSH 7th
2018: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th, NSH 7th

Trade Chips

Just like when the Predators shipped Seth Jones to Columbus for Johansen last year, expect Poile to dangle some young defenseman in front of teams this month. Nashville has Subban, Ekholm, Roman Josi, and Ryan Ellis locked up long term. Do they really need Anthony Bitetto? Petter Granberg? Trevor Murphy? They could even offer up promising young blue liners like Alexandre Carrier, Dante Fabbro, or Samuel Girard for the right return. On the flip side, all of this talented prospect depth on defense could also allow them to move an Ellis or Ekholm if presented with a big-ticket offer. Normally a contender wouldn’t consider such a major move in-season, but this where the upcoming Expansion Draft comes into play. If the Predators want to protect their four star defensemen, as one would imagine they do, they can then only protect four forwards as well, potentially leaving big names like Arvidsson, Smith, and Wilson exposed. It also limits who Nashville can bring in at the deadline, as any player with term remaining on their contract changes the protection formula. However, by trading one of the defenseman and just protecting the three others, the Predators could then protect seven forwards, removing their top six and any additional acquisitions from harm’s way.

Players To Watch

D Anthony Bitetto, D Trevor Murphy, D Alexandre Carrier, F Pontus Aberg, F Miikka Salomaki

Team Needs

1)  Scoring Forward – The Predators simply aren’t putting the puck in the net enough. They need a forward who can score goals himself, help to create goals for the struggling second and third lines, and help out on the 17th-ranked power play. The top name (reportedly) on the market is Matt Duchene, and with Nashville’s wealth of defensive talent, they may actually be able to meet the Colorado Avalanche’s high asking price. Adding another center would also allow the Predators to move Calle Jarnkrok to his natural wing positions. Whether it’s a center or wing or a sniper, speedster, or power forward, Nashville will likely be in on anyone who can help with production up front. A talented scoring forward is really need one, two, and three for this team if there are multiple rental guys out there who they can grab without paying too much.

2) Defensive defenseman – As good as Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber have unexpectedly been for the Preds this season, neither really inspires much confidence as a playoff starter. Nor does Brad Hunt, the next man up, who was picked up off of waivers from St. Louis last month, but has yet to play. What Nashville needs is a veteran shutdown defenseman to eat up some postseason minutes and play responsible defensive hockey. Poile has also shown through his recent moves that he feels the team needs more grit and toughness. If the Predators are still rolling come March 1st and feel good about their playoff chances, this need could turn into a big acquisition. Otherwise, a nice depth player who presents an upgrade over their current #5-#7 defenders would still be helpful albeit more affordable and reasonable.

 

Injury Updates: Stars, Callahan, Nurse, Malkin, Predators

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The Dallas Stars got some good news and some bad news on the injury front as they start a three game road trip today in Nashville, writes Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News.  Center Jason Spezza, who has missed the last four games with an upper-body injury, accompanied the team on the trip and head coach Lindy Ruff thinks he’s close to returning to the lineup although he won’t play against the Preds.  Although Spezza is having a down year offensively, he’s still tied for fourth in team scoring with 31 points in 45 games.

The news isn’t so good for blueliner Johnny Oduya.  He has sat out ten straight contests with an ankle injury and isn’t with the team on the trip.  The pending UFA is likely to garner some interest at the trade deadline but it would be much easier for Dallas to move him if he’s back in the lineup for a few games by then.

Right winger Ales Hemsky is also on the trip.  While he’s not expected to play, he is progressing well from hip surgery back in October and Ruff expects him to be ready before the end of the season.

Other injury news from around the league:

  • Lightning right winger Ryan Callahan is slated to be re-evaluated during their upcoming bye week, reports Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times. He has missed the last four weeks while rehabbing his hip and doesn’t appear to be close to returning.  It’s possible that if the evaluation comes up poorly that the team could opt to shut the 31 year old down for the rest of the season.  Callahan has been restricted to just 18 games this season where he has two goals and two assists.
  • Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse appears to be ahead of schedule in his rehab from ankle surgery back in December, notes Robert Tychkowski of the Edmonton Sun. Nurse has been skating on his own for the last two weeks and is ready to participate in full practices.  The initial time frame for his return was 12 weeks; it has only been eight and considering he’s set to skate with the team, he should be able to play sometime within the next month.  That should be a nice boost for Edmonton’s back end right around the deadline.
  • While it was expected that Penguins center Evgeni Malkin would return to the lineup yesterday against the Coyotes, he was held out of the lineup for the eighth straight game with what is believed to be a lower body injury. Head coach Mike Sullivan told reporters, including Dave Molinari of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, that he’s still close to returning but that the doctors and Malkin agreed for him to sit for at least one more game.  Malkin remains eighth in league scoring despite not suiting up since January 24th.
  • Nashville has placed left winger Cody McLeod on injured reserve, reports Adam Vingan of The Tennessean (Twitter link). The nature of the injury is not yet known.  The 32 year old has played in 13 games with the Predators since being acquired from Colorado, scoring three goals while adding an assist.  Vingan also notes that left winger Harry Zolnierczyk has been activated off IR after missing the last three games with an upper body issue.

Sven Baertschi Suffers Concussion

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The Vancouver Canucks will be without forward Sven Baertschi for the foreseeable future.

Baertschi was forced to leave Tuesday night’s game in Nashville early in the first period after a collision with Cody McLeod (YouTube link). Interestingly, the Canucks immediately labelled Baertschi’s injury a concussion instead of the standard upper-body injury.

McLeod will not face any supplemental discipline for the hit, which has been deemed accidental according to ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun. Canucks coach Willie Desjardins said after the game that he feels McLeod knew Baertschi was there before he hit him. McLeod was not penalized on the play.

The Canucks have now lost four games in a row and are seven points out of the final wildcard spot. Last night was the first game of a six-game road trip, which will likely make or break the Canucks’ playoff chances. They visit Columbus, Boston, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis in the next week.

Baertschi has 13 goals and 27 points in 50 games this season. He was originally the Flames’ 13th overall pick in the 2011 draft. He was acquired by the Canucks at the 2015 deadline for a second round pick.

Central Division Snapshots: Preds, Wild, Fabbri

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Nashville Predators GM David Poile is no stranger to making major trades. In the last 13 months alone, the veteran executive has completed two blockbuster one-for-one swaps, first acquiring center Ryan Johansen for defenseman Seth Jones then dealing longtime team captain Shea Weber to Montreal for fellow blue liner P.K. Subban. This propensity for making big moves leads Adam Vingan of The Tennessean to wonder whether Nashville will make another headline deal before the trade deadline.

Poile already picked up veteran fourth-line center Vernon Fiddler in a deal from New Jersey and the team has been linked to Colorado center Matt Duchene. But while the Predators could use more offensive flair at the pivot position, Poile is hesitant to sacrifice the one asset just about everyone else wants from him at this point: young defensemen. Poile already sacrificed Jones, who is enjoying a breakout campaign with Columbus, doesn’t seem interested in depleting his defense corps further: “We can’t be doing that all the time, or you won’t have one of the best defenses.” As Vingan notes, Poile will be listening but major trades are tough to pull off in-season so any moves the Preds do make are likely to be similar to the recent acquisitions of Fiddler and Cody McLeod.

Elsewhere in the Central Division:

  • As it stands, the Minnesota Wild are in a comfortable spot in the division, holding a four-point lead over second place Chicago and 15 points ahead of third-place Nashville. Barring an epic collapse, the team is virtually assured of hosting at least a first-round playoff series. As Michael Russo of the Star Tribune writes, this cushion will allow Wild bench boss Bruce Boudreau to experiment with his forward lines and defense pairs in order to help GM Chuck Fletcher better identify what the team’s needs are ahead of the deadline. For instance, Boudreau will slot Charlie Coyle, who has spent much of the season riding shotgun on Eric Staal’s line, at center for tonight’s game against Winnipeg with Alex Tuch moving into the lineup at wing. He’ll also have room to give Mike Reilly and Gustav Olofsson more playing time and if they perform well, it may give Fletcher the confidence needed to move one of the team’s top blue liners in a deal to both save cap space and to acquire help at other positions.
  • According to Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the St. Louis Blues will for the time being look to internal options to replace Robby Fabbri, who the team just learned will miss the rest of the season with an ACL injury. In the wake of the injury, the team recalled forwards Kenny Agostino, who tallied just the second goal of his NHL career and the first in almost three years yesterday, and Magnus Paajarvi from Chicago of the AHL. The team will have three-plus weeks to figure out whether those two can adequately fill in before investigating the options available on the trade market. Regardless of how the ultimately choose to do so, replacing Fabbri won’t be easy. While he’s had an up-and-down season in 2016-17, the 21-year-old winger is an extremely skilled player and a key part of the team’s top-nine forward group.

Cody Bass Out For The Season

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While the Nashville Predators are happy to get P.K. Subban back tonight, they also found out that they will be without the services of grinder Cody Bass for the remainder of the 2016-17 season. Predators beat writer Adam Vignan reports that Bass required surgery on a lower-body injury and the recover will keep him out for the year. The injury occurred while Bass was playing for the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals back in December, and a recent re-evaluation in Nashville and subsequent decision to move forward with surgery has ruled out any possible return.

Bass, while definitely not the most successful NHLer, has been a valued depth asset for many seasons. A fourth-round selection of the Ottawa Senators in 2005, Bass broke into the league at the age of 21 in 2007-08 and had his best NHL season as a rookie. In a career-high 21 games, Bass picked up four points and looked at home in an energy line role. He even notched a goal in the Senators’ first-round playoff series. However, Bass missed the majority of 2008-09 with an injury, and by the time he returned, his role in Ottawa was all but gone. Bass’ brand of hard-nosed hockey did not develop into anything more than just gritty checking play in limited ice time while in Ottawa. He moved on to Columbus in 2011-12 and appeared poised for a breakout year. Through 14 games, Bass was playing a career-best nine minutes per night and had carved out a role as the Blue Jackets’ main enforcer, racking up hits and obviously plenty of penalty minutes as well. However, another shoulder injury ended Bass’ season and kept him out nearly all of 2012-13 as well. Just like in Ottawa, during his absence, Bass lost his role in Columbus. After a strong AHL season with the Blue Jackets then-affiliate, the Springfield Falcons, Bass signed with the Chicago Blackhawks hoping for another shot at the NHL. Instead, he played the entire year in the minors and made the move to Nashville ahead of the 2015-16 season. Last year, Bass enjoyed his best NHL season in some time with the Predators. Again, not much of a scorer, Bass failed to register a point in 17 regular season games, but instead contributed with gritty defensive play, strong forechecking, and winning battles along the boards, while keeping his time in the box under control. His two-way play was so valued, that the Predators started Bass in six playoff games, almost a third of what he had played in the regular season. He rewarded them with a strong postseason performance. So far in 2016-17, Bass had again been used sparingly in the regular season, with just nine (scoreless) games. However, Bass has also been out since December and very likely would have seen more time in the second half of the season for a Predators team that is often in need of grit and two-way ability in its bottom-six.

Though few likely put two and two together, with the announcement that veteran grinder Bass is done for the year, it makes even more sense that Nashville recently claimed another veteran grinder, Derek Grant, off of waivers and traded for yet another experienced two-way player, Cody McLeod, from the Colorado Avalanche. Though Grant is five years younger than Bass, their career numbers are eerily similar. Grant is not much of a scorer himself, with just seven assists in 79 games, including his four assists in 39 games this season with the Predators and Buffalo Sabres. However, since Grant’s arrival in Nashville four games ago, he has already dropped the gloves once and made a few key defensive plays. McLeod is not as much of a pure-checking player as Bass or Grant, as he can contribute on the scoreboard occasionally as well. In ten seasons with the Avs, the 32-year-old has 117 points in 659 games and already has a goal for the Preds. McLeod can also hit as well as anyone in the league and isn’t afraid to fight either. While McLeod spends a lot of time in the penalty box, he will more than make up for the loss of Bass with his veteran experience and hard-working, aggressive play. McLeod and Grant will make most Nashville fans forget about Bass, but a speedy recovery and healthy return is certainly wished. Bass will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.

Predators Acquire Cody McLeod From Avalanche

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The Nashville Predators have added some grit up front, announcing the acquisition of winger Cody McLeod from Colorado in exchange for prospect center Felix Girard.

McLeod had seen his role with the Avalanche diminish considerably under new head coach Jared Bednar this season.  He has played in just 28 games this year, scoring once while adding 52 penalty minutes.  His average ice time had also been cut nearly in half from 2015-16, dropping to just 5:53 per game.

Mar 12, 2016; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Colorado Avalanche left wing Cody McLeod (55) takes a shot on net prior to the game against the Winnipeg Jets at MTS Centre. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY SportsIn his career, McLeod has played in 659 NHL games, all with Colorado after signing with the team as an undrafted free agent back in 2006.  He has 66 goals, 51 assists, and 1,359 penalty minutes in that span.  He has one season remaining after this one on his contract with a cap hit of $1.33MM.  The Avalanche will retain 40% of that, per ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun (Twitter link).

With the Preds, McLeod will likely contend for a spot on the fourth line.  With the team battling injuries up front, long-time AHL player Harry Zolnierczyk is currently in the lineup so McLeod should be able to step in and play right away.  As for the Avs, they had been carrying 14 forwards lately so it’s unlikely they’ll bring someone up from the AHL to take their place.  Instead, one of John Mitchell or Joe Colborne should get back into the lineup on a more regular basis.

As for Girard, he was Nashville’s fourth round pick (95th overall) back in 2013 and he has yet to play at the NHL level.  He has played in 35 games this season with AHL Milwaukee, scoring eight points (3-5-8).  The Avalanche have already assigned him to their minor league affiliate in San Antonio.  Girard is in the final year of his entry-level contract and carries an NHL cap hit of $631,667.

Interestingly enough, McLeod may not have to wait too long to face his former team as the Predators will be in Colorado tomorrow afternoon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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