Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Schmaltz, Motte, Rantanen, Tuch
Young talent on ELC’s are often the life blood of successful organizations. With the cost for elite players approaching free agency rising to $8MM or more annually – think Sidney Crosby, Anze Kopitar, Jonathan Toews, etc. – teams need to constantly have young NHL-ready talent ready to plug in to replace veterans who are allowed to walk because they simply cost too much to fit under the salary cap.
On that note, we continue our series on rookies who both have a great chance to make their team at some point this year and the talent to make a significant impact. Today we move into the Western Conference’s Central Division.
Nick Schmaltz (Chicago) – Every year the Blackhawks find themselves precariously close to the salary cap ceiling and with significant holes on their roster. With roughly $49MM tied up in just eight players – four forwards, three defensemen and a goalie – Chicago has committed much of its salary cap space to their star players and have left precious little room with which to flesh out the rest of its roster. Every summer it seems the team is forced to move quality players due to cap reasons. Last year the team dealt Brandon Saad, who as a pending RFA was set to become quite expensive. This summer Chicago packaged talented young forward Teuvo Teravainen with Bryan Bickell to entice Carolina to take on the final season of the latter’s bloated contract. The downside of Chicago’s cap crunch is obvious; the upside though is that it gives young players like Schmaltz a great opportunity to make the Blackhawks and contribute right away.
Schmaltz was the Hawks first-round pick in the 2014 draft, 20th overall. He’s played the last two seasons at the University of North Dakota and was better than a point-per-game player in 2015-16. The loss of Teravainen along with the free agent departure of Andrew Ladd leaves two large vacancies on the Blackhawks roster and Schmaltz will be given every opportunity to fill one. With plenty of scoring talent around him, Schmaltz could produce solid offensive numbers right out of the gate.
Tyler Motte (Chicago) – If Schmaltz is likely to earn one open forward spot for the Hawks, Motte may well have the inside track on the second one. Like Schmaltz, Motte has gone the NCAA route, skating three seasons with the University of Michigan before turning pro. Motte, a 2013 fourth-rounder, had a terrific junior campaign in 2015-16, recording 32 goals and 56 points in 38 games for the Wolverines.
After turning pro, Motte saw action in a total of eight AHL contests with the Rockford IceHogs – five in the regular season and three more in the playoffs – scoring four goals and seven points. Motte, a C/LW by trade, has an excellent opportunity to earn a top-six role and could see plenty of ice time on a line with Toews or Patrick Kane. Currently, the Hawks list Artemi Panarin, last year’s Calder Trophy winner as the league’s top rookie, as a top-six LW. Joining him on the left side is Richard Panik – 25 goals in 181 career NHL games – and Andrew Desjardins – career high of eight goals in 2015-16. The shallow relatively depth on the port side should allow Motte a quality chance to make the team in a scoring line role.
Mikko Rantanen (Colorado) – The Avalanche used the 10th overall selection on the Finnish winger in the 2015 draft. Rantanen, just 19, offers a rare combination of NHL power forward size at 6-foot-3 and 212 pounds, along with top-shelf offensive skill. He made his MHL debut in 2015-16, going scoreless in nine games and recording a -7 plus-minus rating.
While plus-minus is generally considered a misleading stat, Rantanen’s -7 in just nine games does suggest the youngster could use more work in his own zone. That being said, many young players need to improve on the defensive end of the game and Rantanen is no different. Rantanen did have an excellent debut in the AHL, suiting up for 52 games with the San Antonio Rampage and contributing 60 points. It’s likely Rantanen sees significant action with the Avalanche this year as the talent is simply too hard to ignore.
Alex Tuch (Minnesota) – The Wild wouldn’t appear to have too many openings up front based on their team depth chart but if a talented player such as Tuch impresses at camp, he could force his way onto the roster sooner rather than later. Additionally, while Jordan Schroeder is currently listed as the team’s 4th line LW, the team did waive the four-year veteran this summer prior to re-signing him to a one-year, two-way deal. Waiving Schroeder was a curious move, and it’s been speculated it was done to reinforce the team’s position that the arbitration-eligible forward wasn’t worthy of a one-way deal. Given those circumstances, if Tuch proves to be the better player in camp, the Wild could easily find a spot for him.
Tuch has played the past two seasons in the NCAA with Boston College, appearing in 77 games with the Eagles and netting 32 goals along with 30 helpers. At 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, he would certainly add an imposing figure to the Wild’s forward ranks. Tuch is known as a physical player, not afraid to stand up for his teammates. He’s also a willing and able fore-checker and a solid skater. PHR has previously mentioned Tuch as a potential breakout rookie who could suit up for the Wild as soon as this season.
(All depth charts provided by Roster Resource)
Roster Crunch: Metropolitan Division
We’ve taken a look at three out of the four divisions now, and the decisions they’ll have to make come training camp. The Pacific’s depth on defense, the changes coming up front in the Central, and the mass of young talent set to break through in the Atlantic. Now, we’ll take a look at the what many considered the best division in hockey last year, with four 100-point teams and both the President’s Trophy winner and Stanley Cup Champions.
Washington Capitals – There is probably no team with fewer uncertainties going into the season than the Washington Capitals. After running away with the regular season points lead, the Capitals couldn’t even make it to the Stanley Cup final, but they’ll head into next season with largely the same group. They brought in Lars Eller, whose possession numbers should help the third line, and allowed Jason Chimera and Mike Richards to walk (though the latter remains unsigned). Basically the only battle in camp will be for a fourth line or 13th forward spot; can Brett Connolly do enough to make the squad over Stanislav Galiev? Exciting stuff.
Snapshots: Blackhawks, Lightning, Vanek, Higgins
The Blackhawks may no longer be in salary cap hell, but they are certainly thinner up front writes the Chicago Sun-Times Mark Lazerus. With Andrew Shaw being dealt to Montreal, both Bryan Bickell and Teuvo Teravainen off to Carolina, and Andrew Ladd hitting free agency, the Hawks have a number of open spots to shore up. While Chicago can now collectively breathe under the repressive Cap that has had them selling off parts since the summer of 2010, the casualties have come in the way of losing skill players. Lazerus has the Blackhawks possibly bringing back Brian Campbell, who could carry a $2MM/yr cap hit. Meanwhile, the bottom six forwards would look very different than the pedigree most Hawks fans are accustomed to. Lazerus lists Dale Weise and Tomas Fleischmann as potential candidates to return, while naming P.A. Parenteau or Sam Gagner as possible options to add in free agency.
In other league news:
- The Lightning have tendered qualifying offers to Yanni Gourde, Kristers Gudlevskis, Alex Killorn, Nikita Kucherov, Tye McGinn, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Nikita Nesterov tweets Erik Eriendsson. In the meantime, general manager Steve Yzerman has a number of decisions to make as the free agency window opens on Friday. Steven Stamkos is still the top priority as teams are lining up to make their pitch. But the equally intriguing angle is what to do with goaltender Ben Bishop. Entering the final year of a contract with a $5.95MM cap hit, Bishop was reportedly working on contract specifics after the Flames were given permission to do so. That was scrapped as soon as the Flames acquired Brian Elliott from the Blues.
- Jason Brough reports that both the Canucks and Rangers may have interest in free agent Thomas Vanek. Though Vanek would be a backup plan to the higher tier free agents, namely Milan Lucic and Loui Eriksson, he could be a decent pickup at a reasonable price for both teams seeking scoring help. Vanek had 41 points (18-23) and will see a much lower offer than the three-year/$19.5MM offer he received from Minnesota, who bought him out last week.
- Elliotte Friedman tweets that Canucks winger Chris Higgins was placed on waivers for the purposes of being bought out. According to CapFriendly, the cap hit would be $833,333 through the 2017-18 season. CBS Sports listed Higgins as one of their buyout candidates, and the Vancouver Sun reported the Canucks actively shopping Higgins back in January. Higgins had 4 points (3-1) in 33 games last season.
Rumors Swirl About Hawks’ Kruger, Shaw
After trading Teuvo Teravainen and Bryan Bickell earlier this month to free up cap space, Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune reports that the Chicago Blackhawks are shopping center Marcus Kruger and initiating conversations about restricted free agent Andrew Shaw.
Kruger, 26, was given a three-year extension in March that will see him earn just over $3MM per season. The former fifth round pick has been a big part of the bottom-six and penalty kill for the Blackhawks in recent years but was limited to just 41 contests in 2015-16 after dislocating his left wrist. Never a big scoring threat Kruger has chipped in 88 points in career 328 contests.
The biggest news is that Shaw might be on the move, as most expected him to be re-signed after sending Bickell out. GM Stan Bowman was less than forthcoming on the topic however: “I realize everyone wants an answer to that question, but it’s just too hard to make guesses at this point…Signing Shaw is on the list of things we will look at once we figure out what the salary cap number is.”
Perhaps, with the news that the cap will increase just $1.6MM to a total of $73MM for the upcoming season, Bowman has decided that Shaw will be too expensive to keep around. The 24-year old is coming off a year that saw him post 34 points and be one of the Hawks’ best players in the post-season despite their early exit. He’ll likely be looking for close to $4MM per season, something that Chicago might not be able to stomach with only $6MM left under the cap this year and Artemi Panerin (the reigning rookie of the year) due for an extension next summer.
Free Agent Focus: Carolina Hurricanes
After a season which many fans and front office types would consider a success, the youthful Carolina Hurricanes came closer to a playoff spot than many believed they would. With a blue line that was built for today’s NHL, the ‘Canes were quick and resilient, leading to 86 points and many encouraging signs.
The team even pulled the trigger on what was once considered an unthinkable trade, dealing long-time captain and face of the franchise Eric Staal to the New York Rangers months before he became an unrestricted free agent. The return of that deal – two second round draft picks – has already been used to acquire another good young player, taking Teuvo Teravainen off the Blackhawks’ hands in return for paying Bryan Bickell this season.
The Hurricanes are a cap-floor team, meaning they will not spend the entire $71 million allowed this season. They are, however poised for another season of growth, with Justin Faulk and Noah Hanifin leading from the back end.
Key Restricted Free Agent: C Victor Rask – Among the talented young forward group, Victor Rask stands out. His rise from second round pick to twenty-goal man has come quicker than many expected, eclipsing the mark in just his second NHL season. After what was an excellent rookie year (33 points), Rask proved he could skate with the big boys in 2015-16, racking up 48 points and tying $6MM dollar man Jordan Staal for second on the team.
While his possession numbers dipped playing against stronger competition, Rask is still only 23 and finding his footing among his NHL peers. Grouped with Jeff Skinner, Elias Lindholm and now Teravainen, he could be part of an excellent core going forward for the ‘Canes.
Expect him to get something similar to the two-year, $5.4MM extension Lindholm received last summer. While Rask has slightly better production than Lindholm had at the time, he trails a bit in the pedigree department – Lindholm was drafted fifth overall in 2013 and broke in as a 19-year old.
Other RFAs: LW Brendan Woods, D Michal Jordan, D Ryan Murphy
Key Unrestricted Free Agent: F Riley Nash – Just a few days ago the ‘Canes key UFA would have been long-time goaltender Cam Ward, but after re-signing him to a two-year $6.6MM deal, they have almost no one of importance headed out on the market.
Nash represents the best of the group, and after another underwhelming but effective season as a bottom six forward should get plenty of interest on the market. Nash will never be an offensive dynamo, but plays a smart possession game against some tough opponents. While it might be a bit disappointing given his first-round pick status, he’ll play for a long time in the NHL with this style.
He’s coming off a year in which he earned $1.15MM and chipped in with 22 points, seeing his ice-time drop off with the emergence of the other young forwards. If Carolina doesn’t bring him back, look for him to get another deal around the league for somewhere under $2MM per season.
Other UFAs: F Nathan Gerbe, F Ryan Malone, W Chris Terry
Projected Cap Space: $22.5MM, 19 players under contract.
As stated above, Carolina won’t be spending up to the cap and are focused on the slow burn of rebuilding. That being said, they did have a cap hit of $61 million last season, and could have some money to spend this year. After seeing Staal and his big contract shipped out, it would be surprising to see him back, but if they have concerns about James Wisniewski‘s surgically repaired knee, they might go after one of the younger defensemen on the market.
Also watch for them to eat salary in return for assets like they did with Bickell, including being a destination for the $7.5MM cap-hit of Pavel Datsyuk after his retirement from the NHL.
Snapshots: Okposo, Lucic, Walsh
With the buyout period starting Wednesday, and the entry draft coming closer and closer, teams have started making decisions on upcoming free agents and begun to make calls on available players. Already we have seen a deal for Bryan Bickell and Teuvo Teravainen, and just yesterday the Stars traded away the negotiating rights to upcoming UFA Alex Goligoski. Obviously the team felt they were not going to be able to get a deal done before July 1st. Here are some other notes about upcoming free agents:
- It sounds like Kyle Okposo is on his way off the Island, as General Manager Garth Snow recently was quoted saying “We wish him nothing but the best.” Okposo heads into this offseason as one of the top forwards available after scoring 64 points this past year. That tied him with Steven Stamkos for the most from any upcoming UFA.
- In an interesting read from John Hoven around Kings’ GM Dean Lombardi’s latest media call, he reveals that they will be making an offer to Milan Lucic, but that “there’s a number of things we had to work through that we didn’t anticipate.” While it’s not clear exactly what that means, one has to wonder if it’s a medical issue that surfaced after the playoffs. Lucic put up another strong season with 55 points this year, and notched 20 goals for fifth time in his career.
- In Chris Nichols’ latest, he talks to Octagon Hockey agent Allan Walsh about the interview period that beings five days prior to July 1st. In it he voices his concerns over who it benefits: “I would love to get rid of it. it gives teams a tremendous advantage going into July 1, and really doesn’t benefit the players much, if at all.” Walsh would like to get back to a time when July started with a true frenzy for players, stating “Decisions had to be made in five minutes or 10 minutes. Big decisions. For many years of term. And a lot of dollars.” Walsh represents many upcoming UFAs including David Perron and Brian Campbell.
Blackhawks Notes: Re-Signing Shaw, Panarin
After yesterday’s trade that sent Bryan Bickell and Teuvo Teravainen to the Carolina Hurricanes for a couple of draft picks, more in the media are reporting how the move was made to secure restricted free agent Andrew Shaw. But it also appears to be a move made to keep another important winger in the fold.
CSN Chicago’s Tracey Myers reports that not only are the Blackhawks keen on getting a deal done with Shaw by the end of the NHL Draft, but they are also looking ahead at re-signing Artemi Panarin once they can begin in July (per CBA rules). Chicago Tribune writer Chris Hine also tweeted that Shaw’s agent will meet with the Blackhawks at the draft to nail down a contract.
The interesting point in all of this is that while Panarin had an unbelievable season, general manager Stan Bowman is still moving with caution. Bowman had a tough year with trades as moves for Trevor Daley, and Andrew Ladd didn’t pan out the way he anticipated. Ladd, while effective, didn’t bring the goal scoring or production Bowman hoped for when he traded for the winger in February. Daley never meshed with the Blackhawks after a trade that surrendered fan favorite Patrick Sharp and top prospect Stephen Johns. Sharp helped the Stars to a Central Division title while Johns became a contributor near the end of the season and into the playoffs. Daley was dumped to the Penguins for veteran Rob Scuderi in a move widely seen as a way to move salary and give Daley the opportunity to play somewhere else. It worked for Daley–he played a major role in the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Stanley Cup run before succumbing to an ankle injury in the Eastern Conference Final. Scuderi, meanwhile, was flipped for Christian Ehrhoff, who rarely played in Chicago.
Bickell’s albatross of a contract will also remain a cautionary tale for anything Bowman chooses to do in the future. Bickell cashed in on his unbelievable performance in the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs. At the time, Bickell was rumored to get anywhere from $5MM-$6MM on the open market. The deal sealed by Bowman at the time was seen as a tremendous discount.
Regardless, most pundits will give Bowman the benefit of the doubt when it comes to offering Shaw a new contract because the organization has won 3 Stanley Cups under his watch. The Shaw move is seen as a way to acknowledge the wishes of head coach Joel Quenneville who called Shaw “irreplaceable” back in April. Whether Shaw is as irreplaceable as Jonathan Toews or Patrick Kane remains to be seen, but Shaw’s presence has been noted during Chicago’s run of success.
Panarin, on the other hand, put up dizzying numbers in his first NHL season. Once negotiations can begin in July, it will be another test on Bowman’s part in giving him a contract he deserves, but keeping the contract reasonable. Rookies scoring 30 goals in a season doesn’t happen often and the Hawks know that. Bowman will show prudence, but few will question him if it’s Panarin, and not Shaw, who benefits more from the departure of Bickell and Teravainen.
Free Agent Focus: Chicago Blackhawks
It’s going to be another painful summer in Chicago, but this time, there’s no Stanley Cup to soothe fans. On Tuesday, the Blackhawks traded promising young forward Teuvo Teravainen to Carolina to dump the salary of Bryan Bickell.
It was a mixed-bag of a season in the Windy City. The team’s Championship defence started out with star forward Patrick Kane under investigation for allegedly raping a woman at his New York home. The charges were later dropped. Kane teamed up with rookie Artemi Panarin to score a career-high 106 points and win the Art Ross Trophy. Panarin, in his first NHL season after six years in the KHL, finished in the top 10 scorers in the league. The Blackhawks finished third in the tightly-contested Central Division and lost to rival St. Louis Blues in 7 games.
Projected Cap Space: $8.4MM, 16 players under contract.
Key Restricted Free Agents: Andrew Shaw – the pesky forward scored 34 points this season, the second highest total of his career. He’s coming off a controversial playoffs where he was suspended for using a homophobic slur towards a referee after making an inappropriate hand gesture. Shaw has been a favourite of coach Joel Quenneville, but was doubtful to return before Tuesday’s trade. Chicago Sun-Times writer Mark Lazerus reported that the Blackhawks fully expect to be able to re-sign Shaw. Expect the deal to be for 3 or more years north of $3MM per.
Other RFAs: Dennis Rasmussen
Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Andrew Ladd, Dale Weise – the pair of wingers were acquired at the trade deadline as the Blackhawks loaded up for a Cup run. Both players are expected to test the open market as Chicago doesn’t have cap space to sign either at close to their market-value.
Other UFAs: Christian Ehrhoff, Tomas Fleischmann, Michael Leighton, Brandon Mashinter, Michal Rosival.
Outlook: The Blackhawks need at least 5 forwards, a couple defensemen, and a third string goalie. Don’t expect any of those players to have a salary above $1MM.
With $48.78MM invested in their 7-player core of Jonathon Toews, Kane, Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith, Marian Hossa, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Corey Crawford, money is going to be tight to re-sign Shaw, round out their roster, and prepare for Panarin’s new contract next season.
With regards to the expected expansion draft next summer, the Blackhawks do not have much to worry about, as they will be able to protect all their important pieces. Chicago does not have a first round pick in the upcoming draft.
Carolina Acquires Teravainen and Bickell From Blackhawks
UPDATE 4:11 PM CST: After the NHL released the draft order, it appears that the 2016 second round pick dealt to Chicago is actually the Rangers pick (#50 overall) that was used to acquire Eric Staal at this year’s trade deadline. Carolina will hold onto the #43 selection.
3:19 PM CST: Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun Times adds that the Blackhawks now fully expect to re-sign Andrew Shaw, after clearing room with the Bickell trade.
10:48 AM CST: According to the team Twitter account, the Carolina Hurricanes have acquired Teuvo Teravainen and Bryan Bickell from the Chicago Blackhawks. In return the Hawks will recieve a second round pick in 2016 and a third rounder in 2017. The Blackhawks, in cap trouble this year were expected to move or buy-out Bickell who had another $4 million dollars coming to him this season. The Blackhawks immediately regretted giving Bickell his current four-year $16MM dollar deal almost immediately, as the bottom six forward has only recorded 45 points in the first three years.
Teravainen on the other hand is a promising young forward and a tough price to pay to get rid of Bickell’s cap hit. The Finnish winger put up 35 points this season at just 21 and is still on his entry-level contract after being selected in the first round (12th overall) of the 2012 draft. The centre will now join a young group in Carolina and figure into their long-term plans.
The fact that Teravainen didn’t cost a first rounder is a testament to how badly the Hawks needed the cap relief provided by dealing Bickell. With Andrew Shaw‘s status as a restricted free agent this summer, the Blackhawks now at least have some room to try and bring him back. They now have just over $9MM in cap room with 15 forwards under contract.
Buyout Notes: Cowen, Bruins, Brown
The first window to buyout unwanted contracts begins Wednesday at 4pm CST, and the process has already begun with the Maple Leafs placing defenceman Jared Cowen on waivers early this morning in preparation to buy him out this evening. While Cowen was long-expected to be bought out, there are many others that will see their names bandied about in the coming weeks.
Bryan Bickell, expected to be bought out, was moved to Carolina earlier today along with Teuvo Teravainen for draft picks. Carolina will keep Bickell under contract as they will have trouble hitting the cap floor this season, and need veteran players to fill the bottom two lines. The window is open until June 30th, here are some other tidbits on upcoming buyouts:
- Still on Cowen, Sportsnet’s Luke Fox brings up an interesting point: due to a contract quirk the Maple Leafs will actually get a $650,000 cap credit for the 2016-17 season, while only paying a $750,000 hit in 2017-18. For the Maple Leafs, this credit gives them even more room to take on bad salary this season while they continue to rebuild.
- DJ Bean of WEEI in Boston reports that the Bruins aren’t ruling out using buyouts on multiple players, listing Jimmy Hayes and Dennis Seidenberg as candidates. As of early afternoon on Wednesday, Seidenberg had not been told anything in regards to receiving a buyout.
- The Hockey News noted that if the Los Angeles Kings did decide to use a buyout on Dustin Brown, his cap hit would stay with them until 2027-28, a tough pill to swallow. After losing the captaincy earlier this month, and posting his forth straight year of fewer than 30 points, the former USA Olympian is a tough sell to any team. With six years remaining at $5.875MM, Brown’s self-negotiated contract is one of the biggest anchors in the NHL.