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Cap Problems Loom – A Look Ahead For Chicago

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The Chicago Blackhawks’ management will have to take a deep, long look in the mirror this off-season. Their core is locked up and in their primes. With an offense boasting Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, grizzled Marian Hossa, and a resurgent Artem Anisimov, there were many predictions around the league for Chicago to reclaim another cup. Instead, the comparatively deep lineup Nashville iced completely dominated Chicago, sending them packing in a 4 game sweep – the first ever time an “8th seed” has swept a “1 seed”.

This is an analysis of Chicago’s cap frustrations, and what has led to them.

Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane each account for $10.5 MM towards the team cap, and are both under contract until the 2022-23 season. With a cap ceiling that is expected to remain in the ballpark of its current $73 MM, this is a massive $21 MM, 28.8% of the team total. In past seasons, contributions from players on ELCs and cheap one-to-two year deals made this issue far less concerning. Success will do a lot to mask poor planning on management’s part.

Looking at their roster situation next year, the squad looks something like this (numbers represent $MM towards cap):

Nick Schmaltz (0.925) – Jonathan Toews (10.5) – Marian Hossa (5.275)

Artemi Panarin (6.0) – Artem Anisimov (4.550) – Patrick Kane (10.5)

Dennis Rasmussen (RFA) – Marcus Kruger (3.083) – Richard Panik (RFA)

Ryan Hartman (0.863) – Tanner Kero (0.750) – __________

*******

 

Nik Hjalmarsson (4.1) – Duncan Keith (5.538)

Brent Seabrook (6.875) – Trevor van Riemsdyk (0.825)

Michal Kempny (RFA) – Gustav Forsling (0.873)

************

Michal Roszival (0.650)

 

Corey Crawford (6.0)

_________

 

A few things to note: there are still 4 likely vacancies on this roster, and the team would probably prefer to have at least one more extra skater on hand for the season. Before the RFA contracts are negotiated, this comes to a total of $67.307 MM already spent. Brian Campbell and Johnny Oduya are not likely to return, considering the former’s price and the latter’s struggles. Roszival is not likely to be trusted with 7th defenseman duties. With Panik’s stellar season, he is nearly sure to command a sizable raise. The 26 year-old had what can only be described an incredibly over-achieving breakthrough – he notched 44 points, 22 of which were goals. The expectation should be that, even under team-friendly RFA negotiations, he will earn upwards of $2 MM, likely in the $2.5 MM range. Assuming the other two RFAs (Rasmussen and Kempny) receive somewhere around $1 MM each, this brings the grand total to $71.807 MM with at least 3 slots to fill, probably 4.

From here, Chicago could go one of two routes. They could try to fill out the remaining spots with the absolutely cheapest possible players, and hope they strike gold with another prospect or free agent. They went down this road last year, and one could reasonably assume they may not have liked the results. The other option would be to move a sizable contract out in the name of increased depth. A few options would be Seabrook or Hjalmarrson on the back-end, or perhaps Hossa up front. Although the captain’s relative cost efficiency is arguably not good, I don’t see a scenario where the Windy City management would be willing to move on from Toews. Anisimov’s play and chemistry with Kane at a cheap 2C price-tag make him unlikely to be moved, and Kruger was just signed to a cost-efficient deal.

It should be noted that if Chicago would be (for whatever reason) unable to move a contract, they could opt to leave a player unprotected for Vegas to take. This is not a likely scenario, however. Many believe that van Riemsdyk will be left unprotected, but exposing such a cheap and effective youngster seems counter-productive at this point. The problem with ditching Seabrook or Hjalmarrson is that it opens up a huge hole that is not likely to be filled much cheaper – top 4 defensemen don’t come cheap, especially considering this year’s limited UFA class. Hossa, it should be noted, has a No Movement Clause, which would severely complicate any sort of transaction involving the veteran winger.

Decisions lie aheaad for Chicago management, and the decisions may be even tougher than they were after their Cup win in 2010. That off-season, they were forced into moving Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, and Kris Versteeg. Those tough decisions laid the groundwork for their next two titles. This is the cost of success in the post-cap era, and Chicago will again need to make sacrifices if they wish to see any more.

Predator Power: The Potential Upset That Should Shock No One

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Just yesterday, I wrote an article describing the ability of the Wild to come back in their series down 0-2. No one should doubt that the Blackhawks are entirely capable of achieving the same against the Predators. The question is whether they will.

The Predators were perhaps the most overlooked team this post-season, with nearly all analysts picking the Blackhawks to take the series rather easily. This is particularly odd because offensively, the teams were practically indistinguishable (at 2.43 GF60 and 2.42 GF60 respectively). At 5 on 5, the Predators only scored 5 less goals all season long. Down the home stretch of the season, the Predators won their last 4 while the Blackhawks went winless. Although both teams have had an increase in overall offense compared to last season, Nashville had less of a drastic up-hike, suggesting less deviation from the expected output. The Predators are also far less top heavy than the Hawks – their scoring is more evenly stretched out across their lineup and not concentrated around four particular players. The Hawks’ fourth line is noteworthy in how uninspiring it is –  Jordin Tootoo and John Hayden usually average 8 and 11 minutes a piece. Finally, Pekka Rinne had a historically bad season by his standards in 2015-16 (in which the Predators took the Western Conference champs to a Game 7) – but he has returned to form in a big way this season, with a respectable (if unremarkable) .918 save percentage.

Then there’s the defense – the Blackhawks have shown signs of weakness. Duncan Keith had a solid showing, but not his Norris standard. His Corsi For was his worst since his rookie season at 50.7%  – he has trended around 54%. Niklas Hjalmarsson and Brent Seabrook have also had down seasons, Seabrook at 50%, and Hjalmarsson at 45%. After these three defenders there is a massive gap in talent. Part of the reason that these top three are having a difficult time is because they have had to log massive amounts of minutes against top players. Both Johnny Oduya and Brian Campbell have struggled to log the minutes of years past, and both have faced lower quality of competition. Each has averaged around 18 minutes of ice and it doesn’t seem like Joel Quenneville is particularly confident in putting them out there in all situations these playoffs. Trevor van Reimsdyk has performed admirably in his role, but has yet to be a positive player in a post-season year.  Even against Keith, the speed of the Predators’ forwards has created fits and frantic backpedaling. With how dominant Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and crew have looked, it is more than fair to draw comparisons.

Ultimately, the Blackhawks need to score in order to advance. Peter Laviolette has the Predators rolling as a fine-tuned forecheck machine, and Chicago seems to have been shell-shocked. Their zone time in the most recent game was frankly horrible. The 5-0 obliteration was a natural continuation of the frustrated offense the Hawks experienced in the first game, and it seems apparent that whatever game-planning occurred between the two matches fell far short of the mark. Shots were constantly blocked by the Preds and the ones that got through were not dangerous. The amount of hype that preceded Chicago headed into these playoffs was largely unwarranted – they didn’t dominate any advanced stat and only won the division by a slight margin, while their top players looked far less dynamic than the previous year. But let us not discount the effort and depth of the Predators. On paper, this isn’t a roster that is star-studded or wonderfully exciting, but they have been constructed well for playoff hockey and now have the experience to close a series. Their third line has performed well above expectations and their top guns are firing away. Underestimating this squad would be a deadly error for any team, no matter how many cups they’ve won in years past.

Chicago Blackhawks Recall Gustav Forsling

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With the Chicago Blackhawks clinching the Western Conference but now unable to catch Washington for the President’s Trophy, they are poised to give a couple of their veteran blueliners some rest in the last two games. The team has called up Gustav Forsling from the AHL and it is expected that Duncan Keith or Brent Seabrook (or both) will be given a game off to prepare for the playoff run.

Forsling has played 36 games with the NHL club this season, his first in North America since coming over from Sweden. The 20-year old was a fifth-round pick of the Canucks in 2014 and has shown enough to deserve these minutes late in the season. Undersized but confident, Forsling is a future powerplay quarterback that can distribute the puck quickly and effectively.

For the Blackhawks, the team is preparing for a long playoff run once again with their core of veteran players. It’s still unclear who they will face in the first round, as Calgary, Nashville and St. Louis jockey for position. It’s possible that Forsling could earn a spot during the playoff run if the Blackhawks were to suffer an injury or two. It’s a long battle to make it to the Stanley Cup Final, that usually takes at least seven or eight defenders.

Western Conference Notes: Campbell, Hawks, Avalanche

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It was evident after being eliminated in the first-round of last spring’s Stanley Cup tournament that the Chicago Blackhawks needed a boost on the blue line before seriously challenging for their fourth championship since 2010. The Hawks options would of course be limited by their lack of salary cap space. Fortunately veteran blue liner Brian Campbell, who spent three seasons with the Hawks earlier in his career and was part of the 2010 Stanley Cup championship roster, was willing to sign a deeply discounted deal to return to the Windy City to provide added versatility to Chicago’s defense corps. That versatility has proven to be vital given the way head coach Joel Quenneville utilizes and and assembles his defense pairs, as Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune writes.

As Hine notes, Campbell has filled in as both a right and left side defender and has played with everyone from veterans Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith to rookie Gustav Forsling. The biggest difference between playing with experienced blue liners and younger players, according to Campbell, is communication.

“You have to be a little more assertive (with younger defensemen),” Campbell said. “Seabrook talks a lot and he expects you to talk a lot on the ice. Some guys are a little bit quieter. Young guys coming into the league are a little intimidated, but you need them to help you out as much as you’re hopefully helping them out.”

Niklas Hjalmarsson, who is also able to slide over to his off side, has spent a lot of time in his career opposite Keith, and the two have developed a rapport that enables them to keep each other on point. Hjalmarsson believes that relationship sets a standard that should apply across the blue line.

“(Keith and I) kind of know exactly what we get from each other night in and night out,” Hjalmarsson said. “It’s not too often we get on each other’s case, but we rely on each other to bring our best every night.

“That’s the standard for how it should be, and if you play with a first-year guy, you want to be talking more and be more active that way and help him out on the ice.”

While Campbell isn’t the offensive force he has been in the past, his addition gives Quenneville a multitude of options when it comes to his defense pairings and it allows the coach to spread out the minutes a little bit better than in the past. The Hawks still rely heavily on Keith – sixth in the NHL averaging better than 26:00 per game – and might prefer to scale back a bit on his ice time as the season wears on. The continued development of Forsling and Trevor van Riemsdyk may allow Quenneville to do just that.

Elsewhere in the Western Conference on this quiet evening:

  • Mike Chambers of The Denver Post compares the Colorado Avalanche to the Blackhawks, both in terms of how the clubs were constructed and their current salary cap situations. Chambers points out that both teams have had the advantage of multiple high lottery draft picks – Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane for Chicago and Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog for Colorado –  with which to build the foundation of their respective clubs. Additionally, as Chambers further argues, the two have invested heavily in keeping their core groups intact. The Hawks have more than $38MM allocated to just five players – Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook and Corey Crawford, while Colorado has more than $35MM annually tied up in their core – MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog, Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie and Semyon Varlamov. The large investments in their core players limits how much each team has to spend on complementary pieces while also pushing them close to the cap ceiling. However that’s where the similarities end. While Chicago has been one of the league’s top teams since 2010, Colorado has been to the playoff just once in the last six seasons and this year is last in the NHL in goals scored, goals allowed and currently sit 30th in the league in the standings. Clearly where Chicago has excelled in putting the right pieces together on the ice, the Avalanche have failed to find the right mix. At some point the Avalanche is likely going to make a move or moves to change their core.

Snapshots: Raanta, Blackhawks, Player Safety Meetings

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New York Rangers backup Antti Raanta will make his third straight start in favor or Henrik Lundqvist on Sunday afternoon.

Raanta has won two straight, allowing just one goal. He beat the Jets 2-1 before shutting out his former team, the Chicago Blackhawks 1-0 on Friday. He’s made 43 saves in those two games.

Raanta’s two game streak comes just as Lundqvist is hitting a dry streak. He’s lost two of his last three appearances, which included an ugly goal from center ice against the Sabres; he’s allowed 10 goals in those three games.

While there’s no danger of Raanta permanently displacing Lundqvist in the Rangers net, he’s certainly picked a good time to get hot. The Rangers brought in Raanta to replace current Oilers starting goalie Cam Talbot in 2015. After a disappointing early playoff exit in which he was torched for 15 goals in five games, the Rangers appear to be giving Lundqvist more rest throughout the regular season to keep the 34-year-old fresh for the playoffs.

  • Despite being ruled out of tonight’s game against the Dallas Stars, Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews returned to the ice 0n Sunday morning, according to Tracey Meyers of CSN Chicago. Toews hadn’t skated in a week before this morning’s optional skate, and has missed the previous eight games. NHL.com writer Brian Hedger reported that Toews was first on the ice and last man off.
  • Another couple injured Blackhawks are inching closer to their returns as well. Defenseman Brent Seabrook missed Friday’s 1-0 overtime loss against the Rangers, and will also be out of the lineup tonight. However, Seabrook told Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune that he plans on going on the Blackhawks upcoming road trip.
  • Goaltender Corey Crawford, who has been out since an appendectomy on December 2, is also making progress in his recovery. Coach Joel Quenneville told Meyers that Crawford is “doing all right,” but that it will take some time to “get him back to square one.” The initial diagnosis was around three weeks, which would mean Crawford will be out until just after Christmas.
  • Meanwhile, Mark Stepneski reports that Dallas Stars defenseman Jamie Oleksiak will be meeting with NHL Player Safety later today to discuss his high hit on the Flyers’ Chris Vande Velde during Saturday afternoon’s game. Oleksiak was not penalized on the play. Fellow defenseman Mark Borowiecki will also have a hearing today after the Senators defenseman boarded Kings winger Tyler Toffoli. Borowiecki received a major penalty for the hit.

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