The Best Deal Of The Offseason: Brad Marchand
When you think back on any signing season, your mind immediately goes to the big deals handed out to free agents. This season saw over $600MM dollars handed out on the first day of free agency, and was followed by a lucrative summer for tons of players. Because of the lack of a superstar name—thanks Steven, you couldn’t just wait another couple of days?—second-tier all-stars were given incredibly lucrative contracts. Recently, our Zach Leach took a look back at July 1st and the mistakes teams made, handing out term and money to players who were perhaps already over the hill.
But this offseason’s best deal may not have come until much later in the summer. In fact it didn’t happen in the summer at all, but on September 26th just a few weeks before the Boston Bruins would start their season. The Bruins were getting ready for their preseason debut against the Columbus Blue Jackets—a game they would lose in a shootout—while two thirds of their top line was prepping for the World Cup of Hockey final in Toronto.
It was that morning of the 26th that Bob McKenzie of TSN would report that the Bruins had completed a contract extension with Brad Marchand that would see him stay in Boston for another eight years. He would be paid $6.125MM each season with several different clauses attached. Even though he was starring at the World Cup alongside Sidney Crosby—and would score the tournament winning goal just a few days later, shorthanded with 44 seconds left—many people thought the deal was a huge overpay. In fact, the replies to McKenzie’s tweet are mixed at best, with it being hard to understand the value Marchand brought to the Bruins.
Boston Bruins “More Likely Than Not” To Be Silent At Deadline
For all the Boston Bruins fans out there that want to see Kevin Shattenkirk, Matt Duchene and any other rumored trade candidate in the black and yellow, you might just have to wait. GM Don Sweeney told the Boston Herald’s Stephen Harris that while still doing his due diligence on all the available options around the league, it is “more likely than not that [the Bruins] won’t make any deadline deals.”
That may frustrate fans, but perhaps there is a silver lining. Most of the trade rumors that have surrounded the Bruins in recent weeks have focused on Brandon Carlo or Charlie McAvoy heading the other way, something that the team just shouldn’t do. Those two look like locks to be half of their top-four for the next decade, covering both size (Carlo) and offense (McAvoy). Giving up on either of them right now might feel like an improvement, but could end up stinging down the road.
For now though, the Bruins sit tied with the Maple Leafs for third in the Atlantic Division and the Islanders for the final wildcard spot, and have turned things around since firing Claude Julien and replacing him with Bruce Cassidy. The team has gone 5-1 since the switch and although some may credit the improved goaltending more than the coach, the team is in the hunt regardless.
To be sure, GMs and executives make claims like this quite often just to turn around and do the opposite when an opportunity presents itself. The Bruins could use some help up front and another top-four defender, and would likely jump if one came available at the right price. As it stands, Bruins fans can buckle down and get ready for the grind with this group, hoping the MVP-caliber performance of Brad Marchand continues and Zdeno Chara gets some of his mojo back.
Snapshots: Marchand, ISS, Avalanche
Boston Bruins forward Brad Marchand will not face any supplemental discipline for his trip of Lightning defenseman Anton Stralman, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.
Marchand skated behind Stralman and turned sharply, taking Stralman’s left leg out from under him (Streamable link to incident). Stralman told Roger Mooney of the Tampa Bay Times that he “can’t expect anybody to see [the play]” because of where it happened on the ice. When asked about the lack of a penalty on the play, Stralman said “I can’t say if he did anything or not, but I’m not the puck holder. I’m out in the neutral zone, and I get hit from behind. That’s all I got to say.”
The play was similar to another play involving Marchand last week. Marchand made a similar movement behind Red Wings defenseman Niklas Kronwall (Streamable link). The Bruins pest was fined $10K for the incident. Friedman reported that there will be no supplemental discipline because the play wasn’t seen as intentional.
The All-Star Marchand has 49 points in 52 games this season. The Bruins have won three in a row and are now three points up on the Maple Leafs for third place in the Atlantic Division.
- The International Scouting Service has released its Top 31 draft rankings for February. Brandon Wheat Kings center Nolan Patrick remains atop the list, followed by right-handed Swedish defenseman Timothy Liljegren, dynamic Swiss forward Nico Hischier, OHL sniper Owen Tippett, and big center Gabe Vilardi in the top five. Hischier had three points in the recent CHL Top Prospects Game, while Patrick and Tippett had two, and Vilardi one.
- Speaking of top draft picks, the Colorado Avalanche are in for a tough rebuild, writes Cat Silverman of FanRag. While pro sports is usually divided into top teams with few prospects and poor teams with prospects aplenty, the Avalanche fall into an unfortunate middle ground: they’re a poor team with few prospects. The Avalanche are by far the worst team in the NHL (10 points below the 29th place Coyotes and on pace for the worst NHL season since the expansion Atlanta Thrashers) and they’re not even intentionally tanking. Silverman writes that Colorado fans need to accept that the team is going to be bad for the next little while as they trade away players like Matt Duchene and re-stock their prospect pipeline. It’s going to be a slow process because “unlike the other rebuilding teams, the Avalanche haven’t been grabbing pieces for the future. They’ve been losing, but trying to win now, and it’s left them at the bottom of the standings with little in the way of future help.”
Atlantic Division Snapshots: Marchand, Julien, Toronto
Brad Marchand has avoided a suspension for his “dangerous trip” of Detroit Red Wings defenseman Niklas Kronwall in a recent game between the two clubs, the NHL Department of Player Safety has announced. Instead the pesky forward was assessed a $10,000 fine, the maximum allowed under terms of the CBA.
Given his history with the DoPS – he’s been suspended four times overall in his career and on three separate occasions since the start of the 2014-15 campaign – it seemed likely Marchand would be suspended. However, the fact Kronwall showed no apparent ill-effects from the incident may have saved the Bruins leading scorer from that outcome. Ultimately, not losing Marchand for any length is certainly great news for a Boston club fighting desperately for a postseason berth.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division:
- In an ESPN Insider piece (subscription required), Rob Vollman makes an argument utilizing analytics for the Boston Bruins to refrain from terminating embattled head coach Claude Julien. Vollman compares the season-to-date performance of Boston to that of the New York Islanders, who dismissed head coach Jack Capuano recently. On the surface, the two are quite similar but an analysis of shot-based metrics reveal a different outcome. The Bruins have the league’s best shot attempt differential with a plus-488 while the Islanders were a minus-293 at the time of Capuano’s firing. He also compares the career accomplishments of the two coaches, and again Julien holds a decided advantage. Ultimately Vollman concludes it would be foolish to let Julien go. While the scribe makes a compelling case, it is known every coach has a shelf life and Julien is in his 10th season as the head man in Boston. If Bruins management concludes the bench boss has lost his team, or that his message simply isn’t getting through anymore, it may be best to move on.
- Craig Custance, also of ESPN, believes the time is now for the Toronto Maple Leafs and the team’s management to add experienced talent to take advantage of the young guns currently on ELC’s. Custance compares the current Leafs roster with that of the 2007-08 Chicago Blackhawks. That happened to be the year both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane debuted in the NHL. As Custance points out, even with the two talented young superstars leading the way, it wasn’t until Chicago added Brian Campbell (2008) and Marian Hossa (2009) did the team ultimately develop into a Stanley Cup contender. He maintains that the addition of Campbell helped turn the team’s defense corps into a quicker, more efficient puck-moving unit. Hossa, Custance adds, showed the team’s young stars how important it is to play smart, two-way hockey. The scribe suggests the Leafs should pursue a similar strategy and while there may be no player available comparable to Hossa, Kevin Shattenkirk could certainly fill the role for Toronto that Campbell did for Chicago. Shattenkirk might well be available via trade, though unless Toronto was able to ink the mobile defender to a contract extension, it would qualify as a risk to sacrifice the assets necessary to convince St. Louis to strike a deal.
Marchand To Have Hearing With Department Of Player Safety
The NHL’s Department of Player Safety announced today that Brad Marchand of the Boston Bruins will have a hearing for what they refer to as a “dangerous trip on Detroit’s Niklas Kronwall,” during the game last night between the two teams. Marchand, who scored two goals in Boston’s 4 – 3 OT win, was not penalized on the play but it stands to reason a suspension could be looming.
Marchand would qualify as a repeat offender as the pesky forward has been suspended three times since the start of the 2014-15 season. As Joe Haggerty of CSN New England notes, his loss would for any length of time would be a significant blow to a Bruins team fighting for their playoff lives. Marchand leads Boston in scoring with 47 points and is second on the club in goals scored with 19, just one fewer than David Pastrnak‘s team-leading total.
The incident in question occurred at the 12:27 mark of the first period and it appears Kronwall avoided injury on the play. The veteran Swede would remain in the game and finish with 17:51 of total ice time. He was in just his second game back after missing 2 1/2 weeks with a groin injury
Snapshots: NHL Three Stars, Toews, Bickell, Maple Leafs
Nicklas Backstrom, Brad Marchand, and Brock McGinn have been named the NHL’s Three Stars of the Week.
Backstrom had three goals and 10 points in four games as the Capitals continued their nine-game winning streak. He has 13 points on that winning streak, and is currently on a six-game point streak. Backstrom is 10th in NHL scoring with 42 points in 43 games.
Marchand had the second-most points in the last week (behind only the aforementioned first star of the week) with 4-4-8 in three games. He had a three-point game in the Bruins’ win over the Blues before being held pointless in a loss to Nashville. He finished off the week with a career-high five-point night in a 6-3 win over Philadelphia. Marchand is seventh in NHL scoring with 43 points in 46 games.
McGinn had seven points in three games as the Hurricanes continued their four-game winning streak. Carolina is now one point out of a wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference. McGinn has 12 points on the season in 28 games this season, with seven coming in the last week.
- Chicago Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews may want to remember the old Mark Twain quote which says that “reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated.” On his morning appearance on TSN 1260, Bob McKenzie talked about Toews’ struggles and suggested that “a lot of people are writing obituaries on Toews’ career right now,” which McKenzie believes is “real premature.” Toews has 21 points in 37 games this season, which puts him on pace for 41 points in 73 games. That would be a career-low at a time when offensive players ought to be in their prime; even in the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season, Toews scored 48 points in 47 games. Prior to this season, Toews has scored at 0.88 PPG. That’s fallen year-over-year since 12-13, and is now at 0.57. If the Blackhawks want to capitalize on the final year of a cheap Artemi Panarin, they’ll need their captain to kick it into a higher gear.
- Some very good news out of Carolina on Monday, as veteran winger Bryan Bickell practiced for the second time in the last week, according to Chip Alexander of the Raleigh News & Observer. Bickell has not played since the end of October, when he was diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis. Bickell was acquired by the Hurricanes in the summer in a salary-dump trade from Chicago, where he won three Stanley Cups.
- Over at Maple Leafs practice, Martin Marincin and Frankie Corrado are both on the ice. Marincin is wearing a red non-contact jersey as he returns to practice one month after suffering an injury that was expected to keep him out of the lineup between 4-6 weeks. Meanwhile, Corrado returns to the NHL after a two-week conditioning stint with the Toronto Marlies where he had three assists in seven games. He’s appeared in just one NHL game this season.
Bruins Notes: Marchand, Miller, Miller
In his 500th NHL game yesterday, Brad Marchand celebrated in style. The pesky 28-year old scored five points (2G, 3A) and continued proving he’s one of the NHLs brightest stars. After setting a career high in goals (37) and points (60) last season, Marchand is on pace to shatter his assist high this year while setting the point mark once again. His 43 points in 46 games rank among the top 10 in the NHL and leads the Bruins by 10.
Remember, Marchand was a third-round pick for the Bruins in 2006 and was thought of as an under-sized bottom six-type player. Instead, he’s turned into one of the most consistent goal scorers in the NHL, racking up at least 20 in every season except the lockout-shortened 2012-13, when he scored 18. With 17 this year and no signs of slowing down, he may post back-to-back 30+ goal seasons and prove that he should eventually be talked about as a Hart trophy candidate.
- In all the fun that was Marchand’s 500th came some bad news, as Kevan Miller was knocked out by Jakub Voracek during the second period. The defenseman has suffered a concussion and is “in the protocol” according to head coach Claude Julien. In Joe Haggerty’s latest column for CSNNE, he reports that Miller was absent from practice today and will be out indefinitely. Voracek did not receive any supplementary discipline from the league for the hit.
- The Bruins will be without either Miller, as Colin Miller was also missing from today’s practice due to the lower-body injury that he’s been dealing with. Haggerty reports that Miller did skate on his own before practice however, meaning his return may be on the horizon. Julien seemed unaffected by the news of both Millers, saying “we’ve got some depth at that position. We still have enough guys up here to get through, and hopefully we’ll get some guys back sooner rather than later.” Joe Morrow will likely figure back into the lineup in their absence.
Extension Candidates: 2017 Restricted Free Agents
After Artemi Panarin signed a two-year extension earlier today that will pay him $6MM per season and take him right up to unrestricted free agency, the RFA pool for this summer got a little bit smaller. Other extensions that have already been signed include Aaron Ekblad (Eight years, $60MM), Jake Allen (Four years, $17.4MM) and Victor Hedman (Eight years, $63MM).
Even though these big names are already locked up long-term, there are a ton of other restricted free agents that will be negotiating extensions between now and July 1st. Here are a few big names who become RFAs this summer.
Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton: The former third-overall pick who once scored 192 points in 29 German junior-league games, has broken out this season with 31 points in 36 games. Already coming off a 50 point season, this 70 point pace puts him in elite territory up front. Only 21 years old, the Oilers will be looking to lock him up long-term to ride shotgun with Connor McDavid well into their peak years.
Alex Galchenyuk, Montreal: Another third-overall pick who put up a 50+ point season a year ago, Galchenyuk was off to a brilliant start before going down with injury early this month. Because he’ll be out for another month at least, Galchenyuk won’t rush into a contract that may not be representative of his development. This one might head into the summer, but if he comes back strong perhaps the two sides can come together before what looks like a long playoff run.
David Pastrnak, Boston: Not quite the same situation faces Pastrnak, who before this year showed promise but hadn’t played a full season in the NHL. With 26 points already he’s about to set his career-high and has a chance at a 40-goal season. Boston has a lot of money already tied up long-term in their forward group, with David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, David Backes and Brad Marchand all under contract through at least 2020-21. They may not be able to afford buying out UFA years this summer, meaning a one or two year pact is more likely.
Bruins Sign Jesse Gabrielle To Entry-Level Deal
For those of you out there who dislike Boston Bruins forward Brad Marchand (and time and again that has proven to be a majority of NHL fans), you’re about to see double. The Bruins announced today that they have inked prospect Jesse Gabrielle to an entry-level contract, and Gabrielle models his game off of none other than his future teammate.
Gabrielle was Boston’s 2015 fourth-round pick, thought to be a bit of a project player when selected from the WHL’s Regina Pats. Gabrielle was part of Bruins GM Don Sweeney‘s first draft class, which included this season’s rookie revelation Brandon Carlo, recently-named World Juniors participants Jakub Zboril and Daniel Vladar of the Czech Republic and Zach Senyshyn and Jeremy Lauzon of Canada, Providence Bruins impact rookie Jake DeBrusk, Boston University star Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson, and University of Wisconsin play-maker Cameron Hughes. However, Gabrielle has not let the immense amount of talent in his draft class overshadow his own ability.
When drafted by the Bruins, Gabrielle had put up just pedestrian numbers in parts of three WHL seasons with the Brandon Wheat Kings and Regina Pats. His 70 points in 115 games wasn’t terrible, but the scrappy forward was known more for his great forechecking and gritty two-way play. Then, like idol Marchand, Gabrielle chose to put his full offensive ability on display last season. After an off-season trade to the Prince George Cougars, Gabrielle responded with 75 points and a team-best 40 goals in 72 games, as well as 101 penalty minutes. So far in 2016-17, he leads the team with both 19 goals and 31 points, as he continues to dominate the junior level in all facets of the game. Gabrielle even got to skate in three games with the AHL’s Providence Bruins at the tail-end of last season, and while he was unable to register a point, the hard-working winger showed that he could hold his own in the pros. At 6’0″ and 200 lbs., Gabrielle is bigger than Marchand, but plays the same agitating, elusive style that has made Marchand a fan favorite in Boston and hated throughout the rest of the league.
Now developing into a lethal combination of skill and grit, Gabrielle has been thrust into the forefront of Boston’s youth movement plans. Expect “Marchand Jr.” to get a shot at cracking the roster for the Bruins next fall, if he can beat out the plethora of top prospects in the Boston pipeline.
Atlantic Division Snapshots: Pastrnak, Sabres, Ryan
The Boston Bruins may be in the midst of a mediocre season but one bright spot, both today and for the future, has been the breakout performance of 20-year-old winger David Pastrnak. The Czech born forward has 18 goals in just 23 games to start the 2016-17 campaign, a figure which has already eclipsed his career-high by three. Pastrnak is playing out the final season of his ELC and presuming he’s able to continue to pile up the points, it’s certain he will cash in big this summer on a new contract, as Joe Haggerty of CSNNE writes.
Granted, it’s unlikely Pastrnak, who is also averaging better than a point-per-game, will be able to maintain his scoring pace throughout the season but his prolific start makes it easy to envision a 30-goal, 60-point campaign is a strong possibility. Haggerty speculates that if Pastrnak reaches those plateaus, he would be in line for a deal comparable to those awarded to Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon, among others in recent seasons. That means the value of a multiyear arrangement could reach $6MM or more annually on a long-term deal, depending on how many free agent years Boston is able to secure.
While the Bruins would certainly be more than happy to lock up the services of a talented youngster like Pastrnak through his prime seasons at that price, there is what Haggerty considers a “nightmare scenario,” that could come into play. If Pastrnak continues filling the net consistently and posts a platform season similar to that which Vladimir Tarasenko posted in 2014-15 – 37 goals and 73 points – his price tag could go well beyond the $6MM – $6.5MM mark. Tarasenko inked an eight-year, $60MM pact with the Blues on the heels of his breakout campaign two years ago and that could represent a target for Pastrnak if his able to attain that level of offensive production. With the salary cap likely to remain at or near the $73MM mark, and after locking up winger Brad Marchand to a lucrative new deal earlier this year, the Bruins will have to hope they can get Pastrnak extended at a rate which better fits their long-term salary cap situation.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division:
- The Buffalo Sabres, led by sophomore Jack Eichel and buoyed by an owner willing to spend to improve his club, would certainly have to be considered a team on the rise in the Atlantic Division. While a postseason berth in 2016-17 might be a long shot at this point, the Sabres should begin to contend for the playoffs as soon as next season. However, as John Vogl of The Buffalo News notes, the situation today could be much different had the club done a better job of drafting in the early-to-mid-2000’s. Former first and second-round choices taken while Darcy Regier was the team’s GM listed by Vogl include: Marek Zagrapan, Philipp Gogulla, Dennis Persson and Drew Schiestel were all high draft picks chosen between 2005 and 2007 and none even played a single NHL game. Conversely, players the Sabres could have selected – Alec Martinez, James Neal and T.J. Oshie – have played key roles for contending teams. While it may be fun to play “what if,” with players the Sabres could have had, it’s also important to note that had the team experienced more success as a result of better drafting under Regier, Buffalo would likely not have franchise building blocks Rasmus Ristolainen, Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Alexander Nylander in the organization today.
- The return of Bobby Ryan and the play of several of Ottawa’s younger forwards has allowed first-year GM Pierre Dorion to resist temptation and stay the course with the team’s current roster, writes Ken Warren of the Ottawa Sun. It would have been understandable if Dorion had looked to make a deal to add some extra offense with Ryan out with a hand injury but the veteran scoring winger missed only three games. Dorion admitted he made some calls in the aftermath of the Ryan injury and while he will continue to look at different avenues to improve his club, there is no immediate pressure to make a trade.