Andreas Athanasiou

It’s amazing how much the perception of a player can change within a year.  Free agent winger Andreas Athanasiou is only the latest example of this.  Following 2018-19, he appeared to be a core player that could be part of Detroit’s long-term plans.  One year later, he had been traded and ultimately was non-tendered by Edmonton last month (meaning he wasn’t part of our Top 50 UFA list) and remains unsigned more than a month into free agency.

So how did things get this far?  He is, after all, only a year removed from scoring 30 goals with the Red Wings.  However, things didn’t go anywhere near as well with them last season as he just 10 in 46 games before his former GM in Ken Holland came calling, second a pair of second-round picks to get Athanasiou with the Oilers.  Unfortunately for them, the 25-year-old didn’t improve as he had a limited role down the stretch and in the postseason.  The pandemic levelling out the salary cap didn’t hurt either as all of a sudden, his $3MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights was too rich so he was set free.

But even with that, it’s noteworthy to see him still unsigned at this point.  He can play all three forward positions (although he’s better on the wing than down the middle) and he’s at the point where he should be entering the prime of his career.  But at the same time, the fact that he didn’t fit in with Edmonton is telling and is likely giving teams some pause.  On paper, the speedster seemed like a good option for the Oilers but it just didn’t come to fruition.

While the days of labelling players as top six-only options have come and gone as teams now run more offensively-oriented third lines, Athanasiou could still be classified as such.  He’s not the best in his own end which makes him a less than ideal fit on a checking or energy line so that limits his options somewhat.  But still, there should be a landing spot for him in a middle-six role, one that likely sees him slotted on the third line with the upside to move up if he plays well.

Potential Suitors

A lot depends on where Athanasiou’s price tag is at right now.  On the surface, his best bet in terms of finding an ideal fit is a lower-priced one-year deal that gives him a shot at rebuilding some value.  He’d still be controllable through arbitration but if he plays well, the higher price may be something that the team is willing to pay.  Going with that approach also gives him the most opportunities to sign as if he’s seeking a deal that was close to his previous one, he’ll price himself out of the budgets for most teams.  The potential fits below keep that in mind.

In the East, New Jersey is likely to keep some spots open for younger players but Athanasiou is young enough that a good season could see him become a part of their longer-term core.  With three offensive lines, there’s a spot for him to play on and as they have the most cap space in the league, he may be able to garner more from them than certain other teams.  One of those other teams would be Boston.  They’re not likely to have a lot of cap space by the time Jake DeBrusk’s deal gets done but if they are indeed committed to going with the back end they currently have, they should have enough room to add some more help up front.  Secondary scoring has long been an area that they’ve wanted to improve and while Craig Smith will help, Athanasiou would give them a boost.  Florida has already lost Evgenii Dadonov while Mike Hoffman remains unsigned.  They’ve added Patric Hornqvist and some other depth options but more help is needed up front and like the Devils, they have the cap room to go higher for Athanasiou than most do.

Out West, the Kings are a team that’s trying to get younger so while the idea of shopping for veterans on the open market doesn’t really appeal to them, Athanasiou is young enough that he should pique their interest and there is certainly a middle-six role available on their current roster.  Anaheim is a team that needs to get younger up front and with Ryan Kesler heading for LTIR once again, there should be room to add and Athanasiou would fit in well with some of their up-and-coming quicker players.  Vancouver has lost some of their forward depth this offseason both in terms of a top-six player (Tyler Toffoli) and secondary scoring (Josh Leivo).  It would take either Micheal Ferland heading back to LTIR or some other cap-freeing moves from GM Jim Benning but the Canucks are quickly becoming an up-tempo team which would suit Athanasiou well.

Projected Contract

A one-year deal is probably the best fit for both Athanasiou and his eventual team and he isn’t eligible for performance bonuses.  At this point, the maximum he could look to get would be around the $2MM mark and even that may be hard to get with so many others still unsigned as well.  Accordingly, something closer to $1.25MM and $1.5MM should be what his next deal checks in at.  While that’s a big cut from $3MM, a bounce back season would certainly position himself for a much bigger pay day through arbitration next offseason.  Even if non-tendered, he’d at least be coming off of a better season before hitting the market.  For Athanasiou, the best approach for 2020-21 may be to take a short-term hit financially to set himself up for a better deal down the road.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.