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Atlantic Notes: Hoffman, Kane, Red Wings Rebuild

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While a lot of talk about the Ottawa Senators currently revolves around defenseman Erik Karlsson, who will become a free agent in 2019 and expects top dollar, the Hockey News’ Lyle Richardson writes that a deal isn’t likely to happen any time soon as general manager Pierre Dorion still has hope that he can eventually work out an extension when the two parties can begin negotiating next July.

However, Richardson instead suggests the team might focus on moving some other pieces this season, especially pointing a finger at center Mike Hoffman. The 28-year-old will have two years remaining at 5.19MM AAV after this season, which increases his value. While his numbers are a little down (he’s only scored once in his last nine games), Hoffman is still in line for a solid 20-goal season as he currently has nine goals and 13 assists in 30 games. On top of that, he has put up 20 goals in each of his last three seasons.

Besides that, players such as Cody Ceci and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are other trade options, according to Richardson, but considering they are 23 and 25, respectively, the team may want to keep their youth if the goal is to rebuild the team. Bobby Ryan, Dion Phaneuf and Derick Brassard are also trade possibilities, but even less likely as all three have modified no-trade clauses and because of their high salaries, are unlikely to be going anywhere.

  • In the same article, Richardson writes the Buffalo Sabres are not likely to trade forward Evander Kane before the upcoming holiday trade freeze (Dec. 19 to 26). It’s more likely the team will make a move after that as they are still trying to raise his pricetag. The 26-year-old looks to be having a career year as he already has 31 points this season in 33 contests, nearly a point a game, along with 14 goals. Richardson writes that several teams are likely to bid on Kane, including the San Jose Sharks, the St. Louis Blues, the Anaheim Ducks and the Calgary Flames, although few of them are good fits.
  • Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) compares the Toronto Maple Leafs roster and to the rebuilding plan of the Detroit Red Wings, pointing out where Detroit stands when it comes to building a franchise like the Maple Leafs. Custance writes that the obvious missing piece on the Red Wings is the lack of a superstar like Auston Matthews, but there some of the other pieces are present on the Red Wings roster. He compares Mitch Marner to that of Anthony Mantha, William Nylander to that of Dylan Larkin and Nazem Kadri to that of prospect Michael Rasussen and keeps going. Among many conclusions, Custance points out the lack of a superstar as well as the team’s need to grab a franchise-changing defenseman and goaltender, but feels Detroit might not be that far away if luck rolls their way.

Are The Atlantic Division Playoff Teams Already Set?

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It’s December and the 82-game NHL season is not even half over. Think what you will about the “Thanksgiving Rule”, but a lot can change over a long season. There’s no telling exactly how things will shake out this early in the campaign.

Yet, it seems almost impossible that the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs entries from the Atlantic Division are not already set. The Tampa Bay Lightning (23-6-2, 48 pts, .774 PTS%) are the best team in the league. The Toronto Maple Leafs (20-13-1, 41 pts, .603 PTS%) are second in the division and tied for second in the Eastern Conference in points, despite a current three-game losing streak. The Boston Bruins (15-10-4, 34 pts, .586 PTS%) are the closest team to the Leafs in terms of points percentage in the East and rank third in points in the division with the least games played in the NHL. The rest of the teams in the Atlantic are not even close.

The Montreal Canadiens (14-14-4, 32 pts, .500 PTS%) perhaps represent the best bet at a spoiler in the Atlantic, but needed a 6-2-2 record in their last ten just to get to .500. The team is still struggling to find its identity under Claude Julien and there has been more talk of a rebuild than a playoff run this season. The Detroit Red Wings (12-13-7, 31 pts, .484 PTS%) are overachieving this season in the opinion of many, yet are still a ways out in the Atlantic. Despite a talented roster, the Florida Panthers (12-15-5, 29 pts, .453 PTS%) are in even worse shape. The Buffalo Sabres (8-18-7, 23 pts, .348 PTS%) are challenging for the worst record in the NHL and, with the team in turmoil, the Ottawa Senators (10-13-7, 27 pts, .450 PTS%) are trending in that direction as well.

As of now, these five Atlantic Division teams hold the five worst records in the Eastern Conference and five of the seven worst records in the entire NHL. Not only will they struggle to catch the Lightning, Leafs, and Bruins, but a wild card spot versus the relatively dominant Metropolitan Division also seems far outside the realm of possibility. If the Metro’s worst team is the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins (16-14-3, 35 pts, .530 PTS%), how could any of the five hope to beat out its fourth and fifth best teams, currently the identical records of the New York Rangers and New York Islanders (17-12-3, 37 pts, .578 PTS%)?

A lot can change over the course of the NHL season, but in 2017-18 it seems very likely that the Atlantic Division playoff status is already set before the 2018 segment of the season even begins. Tampa Bay simply has too much talent to slow down. Toronto has the talent and youth to keep pushing forward. Boston is only now getting healthy for the first time this season. All three teams are likely to get better as the season progresses and, in turn, the gap between them and the remainder of the Atlantic will only get worse.

Melnyk Comments On If He'd Consider Moving The Senators

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  • Senators owner Eugene Melnyk met with the media in advance of Saturday’s outdoor game and spoke of how he has been “underwriting” the team in recent years. When questioned about whether he would consider moving the team, he ruled it out for the time being but suggested he’d be open to doing so down the road (via Luke Fox of Sportsnet): “If it becomes a disaster, yes. If you start not seeing crowds showing up, yes,” he said. “But, for now, we are on the cusp of doing OK.”  Despite making the Eastern Conference Final last season, Ottawa ranks 25th in the league in attendance.

Poll: Which Team Will Be First To Sell?

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On Tuesday, the NHL will enter its holiday roster freeze. For all players on the active roster, they’ll be given a week’s reprieve from trade speculation, or reassignment anxiety. No one will be traded, waived or loaned between the 19th and 27th of December.

But after the rosters thaw and the holiday season starts to drift into the past, which NHL team will be first to pick up the phone and decide enough is enough? Which general manager will send out messages explaining he’s open for business and start selling off assets to the highest bidder?

The Arizona Coyotes are currently in last place, even after several offseason moves designed to make them more competitive this year. Will they decide that the Derek Stepan experiment was a mistake, or even take a shot at a big return by moving Oliver Ekman-Larsson?

What about the Buffalo Sabres, currently in 30th and with a league-low 68 goals for? Will Evander Kane be celebrating New Year’s Eve in another district? Jack Eichel is surely safe, but the rest of the roster should be looking over their shoulders come 2018.

The Oilers and Senators both believed they could compete for the Stanley Cup this season, but nothing has seemed to go right. With high-end players still on the roster, do they decide to sell off for a season and try to bounce-back next October?

Who will be the first to start selling this season? Cast your vote below, and make sure to explain who you think will move first. We’ve included the bottom 10 teams in the standings, but make sure to comment with whoever you think should have been included.

Who will be first to sell this season?
Buffalo Sabres 40.04% (223 votes)
Ottawa Senators 17.77% (99 votes)
Arizona Coyotes 16.34% (91 votes)
Detroit Red Wings 8.26% (46 votes)
Montreal Canadiens 4.67% (26 votes)
Edmonton Oilers 3.77% (21 votes)
Carolina Hurricanes 3.23% (18 votes)
Vancouver Canucks 2.15% (12 votes)
Colorado Avalanche 1.97% (11 votes)
Florida Panthers 1.80% (10 votes)
Total Votes: 557

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

Morning Notes: Neil, Chara, Jokiharju

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Chris Neil has officially announced his retirement from professional hockey, ending his career after more than 1,000 games with the Ottawa Senators. The team made the decision not to bring him back early in the offseason, and though he was offered a professional tryout with the Montreal Canadiens (which he declined), never could find a full-time contract offer.

Neil, 38, was beloved by teammates for his work ethic and willingness to protect them on the ice, but will be remembered by the Senators’ organization for more than just his fists. Neil scored 250 points in his career, including a 16-goal season in 2005-06. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Neil around the alumni game on Friday, when two teams of Senators’ legends will take to the ice on Parliament Hill.

  • Zdeno Chara is still enjoying life in the NHL, and told Joe McDonald of Boston Sports Journal recently that though extension talks haven’t come up yet he believes one will be signed with the Bruins eventually. Even at 40, Chara is still logging more than 23 minutes a night for the Bruins and seems ready to continue his career. Earning just $4MM this season in the final season of his seven-year deal, he’s been a relative bargain for the Bruins. If he’s willing to take something similar—or even cheaper—there could still be some value to be added for the next couple of seasons.
  • Scott Powers of The Athletic caught up with Chicago Blackhawks prospect Henri Jokiharju ahead of the World Junior tournament at the end of the month, and discussed a wide variety of topics. Jokiharju is starring for the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL, but will try to make the NHL squad out of camp next season. At just 18-years old, the Finnish defender has 36 points in 31 games, trailing only Kale Clague and Colby Sissons among WHL defensemen. For any Blackhawks fans wondering about the next wave of prospects, he’ll be a must-watch at the junior tournament, when he is part of an excellent defensive corps for Team Finland.

Senators Notes: Boucher, Trade Talk, Karlsson, Neil

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Despite their considerable struggles as of late, the Senators will not be making a coaching change, GM Pierre Dorion told reporters at a press conference in advance of tonight’s game against the Rangers.  He did, however, acknowledge that he has been actively speaking to other teams in recent days, estimating that he has talked with 27 or 28 teams over the past 72 hours, via Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Naturally, the discussion also included defenseman Erik Karlsson.  Speculation around him has grown in recent days, especially when it was made public that the team had asked for him to provide the teams for his no-trade clause (something they asked all of their other players with some form of no-trade protection).  Dorion stated (quotes via TSN’s Ian Mendes, both Twitter links) that their preference is to keep the blueliner around for another ten years but that with the streak they’re in, they have to look at everything.  While his comments should quash the coaching talk for the time being, the trade speculation is sure to continue for the foreseeable future.

Also from Ottawa:

  • Former Senators winger Chris Neil will be suiting up in Ottawa’s upcoming alumni game in advance of the outdoor game on Saturday but has already ruled out joining a team later on this season, he told Postmedia’s Ken Warren. Neil acknowledged that the Canadiens had offered him a tryout back in training camp as well as at least one other offer.  That other offer wasn’t from Ottawa and Neil has said that he believes that head coach Guy Boucher – who used him in a lesser role than he was accustomed to – played a big role in him being let go.  While he hasn’t officially retired, it will be hard to imagine Neil catching on with another team for 2018-19 after sitting out an entire season.

Kyle Turris Speaks Out About Not Signing In Ottawa

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When Kyle Turris was dealt to the Nashville Predators earlier this season, he immediately signed a six-year extension with the club for an average annual value of $6MM. He and Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion both spoke to media saying a deal like that was never on the table between the two sides, basically pointing the finger at each other. Now, Turris is pointing the finger at an entirely different member of the Ottawa executive group.

Kyle TurrisSpeaking to media including Josh Clipperton of the Canadian Press ahead of the Predators’ matchup with the Vancouver Canucks tonight, Turris explained who really stopped any extension talks in Ottawa:

It’s tough because I think management did want to sign me, but I think that the owner didn’t. And that was his decision.

Senators owner Eugene Melnyk has been known to interfere with the hockey operations in many instances, and is about as hands-on as any around the league. While Turris’ comments don’t prove anything, you can be sure there was something that happened between he and management before being jettisoned to the Western Conference.

The Senators meanwhile have taken a nosedive since sending Turris out of town for Matt Duchene, and are now inspiring normally level-headed journalists like Ian Mendes of TSN to suggest a quick surrender this season. With trade rumors circling constantly around the team, the idea that Turris could have been kept on a reasonable extension won’t please many fans.

For his part, Dorion organized a press conference today to address some of the issues from the last few days. On Turris’ comments, he made his stance clear (via Arash Madani of Sportsnet):

Everything in hockey goes through me. Not Mr. Melnyk…

The contract he signed with [the Predators], he wouldn’t make with us. It’s that simple.

If there is any truth to the claim, it is curious why ownership wouldn’t want to keep Turris around. While he’s not the flashiest or most marketable player, he was a solid piece on an Eastern Conference final squad last season and will likely provide at least a few valuable years during the extension. Immediately, questions will go up over whether the fiscally conservative Melnyk was trying to save money, something that Senators fans have been dreading over the upcoming Erik Karlsson decision.

Karlsson is likely looking for an extension around twice as expensive as Turris, something that the Senators might not be able to afford even though Dorion made it clear today that he wants “Karlsson to be here for the next 10 years”. If they can’t, then perhaps Mendes is right and the “Ottawa Senators need to give up on this season and start thinking about the future.”

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Minor Transactions: 12/13/17

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The transaction freeze is coming quickly in the NHL, as all 31 teams will lock down their rosters between December 19-27th. That means they have just a few days left to make any trades or waiver assignments they need, leading to daily intrigue around the league. We’ll keep track of all the minor moves of the day right here.

  • The St. Louis Blues have swapped backup goaltenders, sending Ville Husso back to San Antonio while calling up Jordan Binnington from the Providence Bruins. The Blues of course don’t have a primary affiliate this season, which explains why their prospects are scattered throughout the league. Husso had been up to fill in for the injured Carter Hutton, but needs playing time of his own to continue his development. Enter Binnington, who can backup Jake Allen for the time being.
  • The Nashville Predators have sent Frederick Gaudreau back to the AHL according to Adam Vingan of the Tenessean meaning that Scott Hartnell or Ryan Johansen are likely back tonight. Gaudreau has three points in 17 games this season.
  • Ville Pokka has been recalled by the Chicago Blackhawks while Cody Franson is moved to injured reserve. The Blackhawks have been waiting for Pokka to make his mark in the NHL since acquiring him in 2014, but he’s continued to struggle with defensive miscues throughout his career. If he does get into the lineup, it would be his NHL debut and a chance to prove that his offensive value can overcome any lapses in his own end.
  • Ben Harpur has been sent back to the AHL by the Ottawa Senators, though it’s not clear why yet. Head coach Guy Boucher recently said that Mark Borowiecki wasn’t close enough to return yet, and Chris Wideman is still out long-term. Harpur’s assignment leaves the Senators with just six healthy defensmen on the active roster, meaning another move is likely to follow. In the meantime the team has called up forward Nick Paul, bringing him back after his latest stint in the AHL. Paul, a 22-year old winger, has played four games with the Senators this season but has been held scoreless.
  • Arizona has recalled Joel Hanley from the AHL, bringing the 26-year old back for the third time this year. Hanley has played four games for the club this year, and is eligible to be brought up and down as he cleared waivers just a week ago. The team had sent Kyle Capobianco back to the minor leagues to keep him in game action, but needed another defenseman with Niklas Hjalmarsson still not ready to return.
  • The New Jersey Devils have brought Nick Lappin up from the AHL to replace Marcus Johansson, who ends up on injured reserve for the second time this year. Lappin had been tearing up the minor leagues with 12 goals in 23 games, continuing his pattern of finding the back of the net with ease. Johansson is out with an ankle bruise suffered on Saturday.
  • Duncan Siemens has been reassigned to the San Antonio Rampage, as the Colorado Avalanche continue to try and spark something in the first-round pick. Siemens was selected 11th-overall in 2011, but hasn’t been able to crack the NHL for any length of time. In five career games, he has zero points.

The Worst Case Scenario In Ottawa

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While the result is not yet final, the Ottawa Senators are in the midst tonight of what will likely end as a big loss to the Buffalo Sabres, the only team in the Eastern Conference with a worse record (for now). The team is in free fall, losing four straight games and eleven of their past twelve, not including tonight’s result. At 9-12-7, the Senators hold the third worst record in the NHL and rumors are swirling that no one on the roster is safe.

Back on November 5th, things seemed to be trending upward for Ottawa as GM Pierre Dorion was finally able to swing a trade to bring in coveted center Matt Duchene. In the process, the Senators gave up another legitimate top six center in Kyle Turris, goalie Andrew Hammond, 2016 first-rounder Shane Bowers, a 2019 third-round pick and a conditional 2018 first-round pick. Duchene has just four points and a -11 rating in 14 games with Ottawa so far and it’s already safe to say that the trade hasn’t worked out as planned.

So what’s next? With the Senators struggling, the conditional first-round pick sent to the Avalanche becomes very interesting. The 2018 pick is “top-ten protected”, meaning – as is likely – if Ottawa finished in the bottom third of the league, they retain their first round pick. Colorado would then get the Senators’ 2019 first-rounder. However, there is significant risk associated with that scenario. While the 2017-18 Sens have been underwhelming, there is enough talent on the roster to avoid falling apart entirely. The 2018-19 Senators though are another story. Ottawa just recently requested no-trade lists from ten key players and a fire sale could begin this season. The result could be an even worse squad next season and an even better pick heading to Colorado, perhaps even a top pick like center Jack Hughes or defenseman Bowen Byram.

So what is the worst case scenario in Ottawa? The team continues to struggle this year and is even worse next season, missing out on a potential franchise-altering prospect. After two years of failure, the team loses, via trade or free agency, Duchene, Erik Karlsson, Derick Brassard, and more. It may seem like a stretch, but it is in fact very possible. These are dark days in Ottawa, but the truth is that this could just be the beginning.

Latest On Erik Karlsson

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Erik Karlsson wants the trade speculation to calm down. After expressing that he wouldn’t consider taking a “hometown discount” to stay with the Ottawa Senators when he becomes an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019, and then being one of the players asked to submit his “no-trade” list on the weekend, rumors have run wild. Karlsson wants to put an end to that, and in speaking with Arash Madani of Sportsnet tried his very best.

This is the place I want to win with. I want to win in Ottawa. That’s where I’ll always be. It’s going to be my home, no matter where I end up playing when I get older, if that ever happens. So that’s the thing: I want to be where home is. I’m comfortable at home, I like it at home and Ottawa is home. Not only the organization, but the community and all my friends as well. That’s something that’s very important to me. Then, all the other stuff, they will just follow.

Karlsson regrets speaking about his future contract negotiations, but when they came during an anchor-like plummet to the bottom of the standings by the Senators they rang with a note of truth and expectation. The Senators have lost 11 of their last 12 games, including a 5-0 pummeling at the hands of San Jose on Saturday night. Ottawa was outshot 50-25 in the game, and now sit lower than all but the Buffalo Sabres in the Atlantic Division.

Still, despite many outlets (PHR included) suggesting it may be time to consider a move, Karlsson doesn’t appear to be on the block. In fact, Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun cites two league sources that tell him Karlsson hasn’t been discussed at all in trade talks with GM Pierre Dorion. Garrioch instead suggests that the trio of Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Cody Ceci represent the “three best options that will bring return.” Hoffman was also among the group asked for their no-trade lists, while Pageau and Ceci have been linked to trade talks in the past.

The biggest decision still lies with Karlsson, who has 136 regular season games remaining under contract with the Senators. Whether they can even afford his next huge contract will be a huge factor in what happens during the end of this deal, as Dorion will surely get as many assets as possible if he realizes there is no extension coming. The two sides are able to negotiate on a new deal once July 1st, 2018 rolls around, a day circled on the calendar of many Ottawa fans.

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