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Looking At Phil Kessel’s Impending Free Agency

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The 2022 NHL free agent class includes a generous helping of veteran NHL stars who may, or may not, be looking to continue their NHL careers and pursue their first, or simply one more, Stanley Cup. That class includes the likes of Patrice Bergeron, P.K. Subban, Claude Giroux, and four members of the 2016 and 2017 Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Phil Kessel.

After beginning his career with the Boston Bruins and being traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Kessel had an impressive run in Toronto before again being traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2015. The acquisition of Kessel appeared to be just the thing the Penguins needed to be put over the top, winning Stanley Cups in each of Kessel’s first two years with the team. The star forward would put up 59 and 70 points in his first two seasons, and as impressive as those numbers were, he found a new gear in the postseason, boasting 22 points in 24 playoff games in the 2016 Cup run, and 23 points in 25 games in the 2017 Cup run. The Penguins would not find the same success after 2017, but Kessel would continue to up his game, turning in 34 goals and 58 assists for a career-best 92 points in 2017-18. He’d follow that season up with his second-highest single-season point total for his career with 82 in 2018-19 before Pittsburgh dealt him to Arizona in the summer of 2019.

Since the trade to Arizona, Kessel has not seen the same level of production as he did in Toronto and Pittsburgh, but he has continued to be a consistent, valuable performer for the struggling Coyotes. Kessel’s name had been in discussion as a possible trade chip ahead of this year’s trade deadline, but with his $8MM cap hit and his struggles to find the back of the net this season, a trade seemed difficult even if Arizona was to retain a portion of Kessel’s cap hit.

Predicting the star forward’s next contract may prove to be a very difficult task. On one hand, while he was far from a poor performer in Arizona, he is not the player he once was. He turned in a very respectable 52-point season in 2021-22, however just eight of his 52 points were goals. Looking deeper at that number, Kessel’s ice-time was the lowest it has been since 2008-09, however his average of 16:41 was not much lower than the 17:05 he averaged last season, where he scored 20 goals in just 56 games. The most concerning metric of Kessel’s is his shooting percentage, which sits at 10.8% for his career, but dipped to an eye-popping 4.6% this season.

Worrisome as his goal-scoring woes this year are, Kessel’s consistent point-production for his career has actually been combined with some slight inconsistencies when it comes to his goal scoring and shooting percentage. Notably, his shooting percentage dropped to as low as 8.9% in 2014-15, when he scored 25 goals. Also on a positive note, the highest shooting percentage of Kessel’s career came in 2020-21, when it reached a remarkable 17.4%.

It seems like just yesterday that a 19-year-old rookie Phil Kessel beat cancer midseason and won the Masterton Trophy in the 2006-07 season, however now Kessel will turn 35 just before opening night of the 2022-23 season. Despite his age, Kessel does offer reliability; the knowledge that he will be in the lineup every single night. Currently, he owns the longest active ironman streak in the NHL, playing 982 consecutive games. The longest streak in NHL history belongs to Keith Yandle, who’s record of 989 consecutive games was secured, and snapped, earlier this season.

Not the player he once was, but still effective and a bona-fide playoff ace, the veteran Kessel should have his pick of teams to go to in order to provide depth scoring, leadership, and experience to chase another Stanley Cup if he wishes. Having just finished an eight-year, $64MM contract, Kessel will certainly not be seeing that term or AAV again, but given where his game currently stands, he may be able to have his pick depending on his priorities.

One option could be to take a team-friendly contract in hopes of filling a role on one more Stanley Cup winning team, such as Corey Perry is attempting with the Tampa Bay Lightning and the recently-retired Jason Spezza had been attempting with Toronto. Another option would be to maximize his value and his role with a team, though he may have to look for an organization with some salary cap flexibility, which may not be as likely of a Cup-contender as other options. Either way, though another $64MM is unrealistic, his consistent production, brought every single night should be enough to afford Kessel with a number of options to pick from, an ideal situation for most veteran athletes.

Looking At A Pair Of Intriguing Colorado Avalanche UFAs

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With the Colorado Avalanche headed to their first Conference Finals in 20 years and vying for their first Stanley Cup Championship since 2001, much has been made about their impending UFAs and their ability to re-sign them. The bulk of that discussion has centered around star center Nazem Kadri and starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper, both of whom were brought in to take Colorado to the next level as a playoff team, and the noise surrounding them has been more than justified. Kuemper posted another strong season, his first in Colorado, with a .921 save-percentage and 2.54 goals-against average. Kadri, already a strong performer, had nothing short of a sensational breakout year, with 28 goals and 59 assists in 71 games. Not surprisingly, both have carried their production over to the playoffs. If and when Kadri or Kuemper hit the UFA market in July, they will have plenty of interest.

As much as the chatter around those two is justified, there are two key pieces of the Avalanche also on the heels of breakout seasons, headed for free agency, who appear to have considerably less buzz. Despite the lack of hype, or maybe being overshadowed on a star-studded team, forwards Valeri Nichushkin and Andre Burakovsky will hit free agency with, one would expect, strong markets for their services.

Burakovsky’s production is not exactly a new phenomenon, as the winger has averaged 0.79 points-per-game over his three seasons in Colorado, his 61 points in 2021-22 actually representing a (very small) step down at 0.76 points-per-game, but is a major step-up from the 0.44 points-per-game he averaged with the Washington Capitals previously. For the most part, COVID-19’s schedule disruptions are responsible for Burakovsky’s lower point totals in the two seasons prior to this one, however this season represent’s Burakovsky’s ability to produce at this rate not over 50-60 games, but over a full NHL season. Although Burakovsky has amassed his numbers on an incredible offensive team like Colorado, during a period of increased scoring league-wide, he has shown the ability to stay in the lineup and produce consistently, and at just 27 years of age, he appears ripe for a longer-term contract.

Unlike Burakovsky, Nichuskin had a true breakout season, setting a career-high with 52 points, 18 more than his previous career-high of 34 set in his rookie season in 2013-14 with the Dallas Stars. After three seasons with Dallas, Nichushkin left the NHL to play with CSKA Moscow of the KHL, but returned for the 2018-19 season, where he struggled to just 10 assists in 57 games for Dallas. He would leave Dallas for Colorado, where he would find consistent production before a strong 2021-22 season. Though Nichushkin does not have Burakovsky’s consistency, he has shown his ability to adapt and produce throughout his career, entering the league as an 18-year-old, where he put up 34 points. He has shown an ability to produce in the NHL since then, and while his production back home in the KHL was no more impressive than his NHL production to date, he proved he could take his game from one league and one side of the globe to another and produce, then back once again. Nichushkin also has a factor in his game that cannot be taught or taken away: his size. Listed at 6’4 and 210 pounds, Nichushkin is able to use his body to impose himself and create space for him and his teammates.

Nichushkin may have trouble finding the term that Burakovsky might be able to, however his unique skillset and his recent production should be enough to land him a contract with a strong AAV, and at just 27 years old, if he can continue to match his 2021-22 production over the life of a shorter contract, perhaps two or three years, he could be in line for a long-term deal in the future.

Looking at the market for these two certainly does not mean that Colorado will not be able to retain one or both of them, however the organization does have several questions to ask. First and foremost among them is how do they fit along with trying to re-sign the aforementioned Kadri and Kuemper? After letting goaltender Philipp Grubauer sign in Seattle, replacing him with Kuemper, Colorado will likely push to retain Kuemper. As brilliant as Kadri was this season, he is likely headed for a long-term deal with a reasonably high AAV this offseason, and at 32 years of age on opening night, it might not be the most prudent investment for Colorado, especially if they can, instead, re-sign both Nichushkin and Burakovsky.

With $26.485MM in projected cap space this offseason, Colorado could, in theory, bring all four back, leaving things a bit tight cap-wise (and would likely necessitate Josh Manson leaving via free agency). However, issues then arise after next season, when Nathan MacKinnon becomes a UFA, and would require a significant raise over his current, team-friendly $6.3MM cap hit. Defenseman Erik Johnson’s $6MM cap hit would also expire, and while he might take a reduced salary to stick around, it would probably not be enough to balance out MacKinnon’s raise, all of this before considering J.T. Compher’s UFA status, and the expiration of Bowen Byram and Alex Newhook’s ELCs. As much as some of these things seem like future problems for Colorado, the questions they pose back up into now, and how the organization could approach this upcoming offseason with four of their key pieces set to become UFAs.

Looking At The Boston Bruins Salary Cap Crunch

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In a rundown of hockey news today, Matt Porter of the Boston Globe addressed, amongst other things, the Boston Bruins impending salary cap crunch, and speculated on what the organization could do to improve its situation (link). In sum, Porter says that even with Brad Marchand slated to miss time after surgery on both of his hips, presumably landing him on LTIR to start the season, and with Patrice Bergeron either not returning or perhaps taking a steep discount, Boston could still find itself up against the salary cap next season, not even considering any moves the team needs to make to improve.

As of right now, the Bruins are projected to have just $2.84MM in salary cap space next season, which does not factor in making any moves, or creating any additional space, like putting Marchand on LTIR. Though not over the cap, if Boston wants to improve or even return the same quality team to the ice, they will need to spend to do so, but would have to get creative with how they shed salary. One suggestion Porter makes is to buy out the contract of forward Nick Foligno, who has one-year at $3.8MM left on his contract. Doing so would reduce the cap hit to just $1.933MM next season and $930K after. Foligno has been a reliable point producer and excellent leader his entire career, however his production fell off sharply this season with Boston, tallying a mere two goals and 11 assists in 64 games.

Still a tremendous veteran presence for any team, his $3.8MM cap hit is tough to justify on a team as close to the ceiling as Boston. If the organization wants to eliminate his entire cap hit, they will likely find a market for which to trade him, however the veteran will have a 16-team no-trade list and dealing him would likely require the Bruins to send draft pick or prospect compensation with him. It might seem unlikely that Foligno would accept a trade from a perennial contender to, expectedly, a rebuilding team, however a team in the market to absorb Foligno’s salary would likely be able to give him the ice-time and role he might prefer, as well as a chance to be dealt to a competitive team at the trade deadline anyways.

Another suggestion from Porter would be to make a practical trade of a regular, albeit replaceable player, such as forward Craig Smith or defensemen Matt Grzelcyk or Mike Reilly. Smith, who has one more year at $3.1MM, has been a solid contributor for Boston since coming over from the Nashville Predators in free agency prior to the 2020-21 season, putting up a solid 16 goals and 20 assists in 74 games this season. With his solid play and reasonable cap hit, Boston should be able to find a partner in a Smith trade and even receive an asset in return. The Bruins could then replace Smith in-house with young options like Fabian Lysell, Oskar Steen, or Jack Studnicka, as Porter suggests.

As good as Reilly and Grzelcyk have been for the Bruins, Porter adds that they are very similar players, thus making one potentially expendable in the right situation. Both players have two more years remaining on their contracts, Reilly at a cap hit of $3MM and Grzelcyk at just under $3.69MM. In addition to having very similar styles of play, the two have also had remarkably similar production, both tallying 44 points over their previous two seasons, Grzelcyk doing so in 110 games, Reilly in 125. On the left side, the team does also have Derek Forbort under contract at $3MM for the next season, though he is not as remarkably similar to Grzelcyk and Reilly as those two are to one another. Trading any of the three would also not pose a hazard to Boston’s depth, as they also have the recently-acquired-and-extended Hampus Lindholm and 25-year-old Jakub Zboril, who is still awaiting his first job as an NHL-regular.

Finally, a seemingly obvious solution for Boston would be to trade forward Jake DeBrusk, who owns a $4MM cap hit through 2023-24, and notably asked for a trade earlier this season (link). After requesting the trade, DeBrusk continued to play hard, and well, for Boston, ultimately finishing the season with 25 goals and 17 assists in 77 games. For his career, DeBrusk has continually produced similar numbers outside of a poor, outlier 2020-21 season and at age-26 for most of next season, his contract represents solid value for whatever team has him. Trading DeBrusk might seem like a given, but if the winger possibly changed his mind or is willing to play out the remainder of his contract, keeping him may be a prudent decision for Boston considering his value. Though DeBrusk has the highest cap hit of any player discussed, ultimately when trying to build a competitive team under the salary cap, the salary cap hit is less important than the overall value the team is receiving on the deal.

NHL Announces Conference Final Schedule Scenarios

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After one-half of the conference finalists have been set, the NHL has released the potential schedule matrix for the 2022 Eastern and Western Conference Finals.

No matter what, the Eastern Conference Final will start June 1, whether it be in Raleigh or Manhattan. The Tampa Bay Lightning will be the visitor after sweeping the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Florida Panthers in the Second Round. The Lightning actually finished with the same point total as the New York Rangers (110), but surrender the tiebreaker, so it’s impossible for them to start the series at home. They would also start on the road against the Metropolitan Division champion Carolina Hurricanes. The Eastern Conference Final will be televised on ESPN in the United States.

For the Western Conference, the schedule depends on the result of tonight’s Game 6 between the Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues. If Colorado is victorious tonight, the series will start on May 31st in Denver. If it goes to a Game 7, the Edmonton Oilers will travel to either Denver or St. Louis for Game 1 on June 2. In the United States, the Western Conference Final will be on TNT.

The last possible day for Conference Final action is June 15, with a potential Western Conference Final Game 7 between the Oilers and either the Avalanche or Blues.

Atlantic Notes: St. Louis, Giroux, Senators

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The Montreal Canadiens made waves earlier this season when the most storied franchise in NHL history replaced a head coach that had just guided them to their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in nearly 30 years with someone who had no professional coaching experience to speak of. However, under Laval native Martin St. Louis, the Canadiens, despite being battered and bruised, looked rejuvenated and carried much more of the same energy that had taken them through four rounds in 2021.

Now, it appears that St. Louis has done enough to impress the team’s front office and guide them through what’s likely to be a tumultuous next few seasons in terms of roster construction. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that he expects the Canadiens to announce an extension for St. Louis “in the near future”, although there’s no timeline given for this. The Canadiens finished the season 14-19-4 under St. Louis, a marked improvement over the team’s abysmal 8-30-7 record under Ducharme.

  • After being swept out of the Second Round by the Tampa Bay Lightning, Claude Giroux expressed interest today in returning to the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Florida Panthers. How the team manages to make that work under the salary cap, though, is a gigantic mystery. While the Panthers don’t have any significant pieces to re-sign aside from Giroux and Mason Marchment, the team is greatly restricted in salary space next year by the combined $6.575MM cap hit from the Keith Yandle and Scott Darling buyouts. With that, the team will have just $4MM in cap space this offseason with depth roster spots to fill. Giroux would need to take a steeply discounted deal, which could be unlikely given the much more rich offers he’ll receive elsewhere. Giroux had 23 points in 18 games down the stretch for the Panthers in the regular season and eight points in 10 playoff games.
  • The Ottawa Senators appear to be ready to take aggressive steps in exiting their rebuild, with general manager Pierre Dorion saying that the team’s seventh overall pick at the 2022 NHL Draft is on the table for trade. Dorion also said that he’s focused on acquiring a top-four defenseman or a high-end forward, if possible. While the Senators do have a strong pool to deal from, they’re also a core that has proven very little with the team staying stagnant in the standings this season. With the team sitting on over $20MM worth of cap space again this offseason, though, they have the roster flexibility to make moves.

Minor Transactions: 05/25/22

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While the North American focus on hockey remains starkly on the Stanley Cup Playoffs, most European seasons have wrapped up by now. That means a lot of players with NHL pedigrees are involved in some foreign transactions. We’ll keep track of those here today:

  • Defenseman Andrey Pedan, a 2011 third-round pick of the New York Islanders and 13-game NHL veteran with the Vancouver Canucks, is on the move in the KHL. SKA St. Petersburg acquired him via trade today from Dynamo Moskva, meaning Pedan will suit up for his third different KHL team since returning to Russia in 2018. Born in Lithuania, Pedan has Russian citizenship but underwent the majority of his development in North America. He came to join the OHL in 2010 and played professionally exclusively in North America through 2018.
  • Former Minnesota Wild and Washington Capital Casey Wellman announced his retirement today via Instagram. The California native was never drafted but made the jump to the NHL after the Wild picked him as a free agent from UMass in 2010. Before beginning a professional career in Europe in 2015, Wellman appeared in 54 NHL games, scoring six goals, 10 assists and 16 points.

Pittsburgh Penguins Extend Taylor Fedun

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It turns out there’s a second piece of news regarding a Pittsburgh Penguins depth defenseman today. The team announced Wednesday morning that Taylor Fedun has agreed to a two-year, two-way contract extension that runs through the 2023-24 season and carries an average annual value of $762,500.

The news comes after news broke that Juuso Riikola had left the organization as an unrestricted free agent, opting to play in Sweden for 2022-23.

Fedun, now 33, last played in the NHL during the Dallas Stars’ run to the 2020 Stanley Cup Final. After he ended up spending the entire 2020-21 season with the Stars either on the taxi squad or in the AHL (only two games), Fedun signed as an unrestricted free agent with Pittsburgh this past offseason. He spent the entirety of 2021-22 with the AHL’s Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, serving as captain and tallying five goals, 11 assists, and 16 points in 44 games.

The Edmonton-born defender will stick around in the AHL as a valuable mentor for up-and-coming Penguins defensemen, and he can still be a decent call-up option in the case of injury.

Undrafted, Fedun first broke into the league as a 25-year-old with the Edmonton Oilers in 2013-14. Since then, he’s appeared in NHL games for the Stars, San Jose Sharks, Vancouver Canucks, and Buffalo Sabres. Over seven separate seasons, Fedun has 127 NHL games under his belt with eight goals, 27 assists, and 35 points. He’s seen limited usage in those games, averaging a career number of 13:56 per game.

Juuso Riikola Signs In Sweden

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The Pittsburgh Penguins won’t be getting at least one depth defenseman back next season. IK Oskarshamn of the SHL has announced the signing of Juuso Riikola for the 2022-23 season.

Riikola spent four years in the Penguins organization but spent most of his time in the AHL for the first time this year. He signed with the team in 2018 as a free agent after a six-year stint in the Finnish Liiga with KalPa. However, Riikola had played just seven NHL games over the past two seasons combined, playing just two in 2020-21 while spending the entire season on the taxi squad.

Over the past four NHL seasons, the 28-year-old Riikola played 80 games, tallying three goals, 10 assists and 13 points. While a reasonable option to slide into the lineup in case of injury, at his age, Riikola will likely opt to stay in Europe long-term, playing out his prime years in a more sizeable role.

Looking Ahead To Nick Leddy’s Impending Free Agency

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Despite being with his third team in the last year, Nick Leddy is back in a familiar place: the Stanley Cup Playoffs. A veteran of 12 NHL seasons, Leddy has been to the playoffs in 10 of them, suiting up for 125 playoff contests, four of which have come this postseason as a member of the St. Louis Blues, the first playoff games he has played not wearing a Chicago Blackhawks or New York Islanders jersey. Once Leddy’s season is over, whenever that may be (St. Louis currently trails Colorado 1-0 in their second round series), Leddy will find himself in uncharted territory: unrestricted free agency.

At 31-years-old, Leddy has never had the opportunity to hit the open market, initially signing extensions as a RFA with the Chicago Blackhawks, and then the New York Islanders after an October, 2014 trade. Leddy’s expiring contract, a seven-year, $38.5MM deal, was signed with the Islanders in 2015 before Leddy was set to become a RFA. That contract proved to provide good value to the Islanders, for whom Leddy played 518 regular season games and 67 playoff games, many of which were as one of the team’s top defensemen. However, with cap concerns creeping up this past offseason, Leddy would find himself once again traded, this time to the rebuilding Detroit Red Wings. The veteran was tasked to be a leader in a young dressing room, with the organization hoping they could take the next step. On the outside of the playoff picture once again, Detroit dealt Leddy at the trade deadline, where he would become a key piece on the blueline for the St. Louis Blues, who have their eyes set on their second Stanley Cup in four seasons.

Now an UFA, Leddy will look to parlay his experience into another contract to cover his early and mid-30’s. What Leddy’s next contract will look like is an interesting discussion however, as he has plenty to admire, but does pose some concerns for a team that would be committing to him. First, looking at the positives, Leddy can be described as a durable defenseman who skates and moves the puck well, and who has developed his defensive game nicely in the past few seasons. Over the course of his career, Leddy has missed very few games and would average over 40 points-person-season in his prime. After a tough 2017-18 season which would see Leddy accumulating a minus-42 rating despite having 42 points of his own, Leddy was able to reinvent his game under coach Barry Trotz. Though the strong point totals did not come back to their previous form, the defenseman showed his ability to work diligently in his own end and move the puck out routinely.

On the other hand, after being traded to Detroit and away from the system that saw him take steps forward defensively, Leddy again struggled in his own end, and played to a minus-33 rating in Detroit before being traded to St. Louis. With the Blues, Leddy would rebound, posting eight points to go with a plus-3 rating in 20 regular season games down the stretch. Still, as a 31 year old defenseman who relies heavily on his skating, Leddy’s prime is likely behind him and even with the steps he has taken to round out his game, his occasional struggles defensively do raise concern.

All of this is to say, Leddy is more than a capable NHL defenseman, but these factors will play into what his next contract looks like. He almost certainly will not receive the seven-year term he has on his current contract, and the $5.5MM AAV it carries is potentially out of the question too. However, on a shorter-term contract of three or four years, Leddy could push a number that is close to his previous salary even if he cannot reach it.

One name to look at as a potential comparison for Leddy is Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman T.J. Brodie. The former Calgary Flames blueliner signed his four-year, $20MM contract with Toronto just after turning 30 years of age, a year younger than Leddy is now, but on a similar trajectory. Brodie, like Leddy, made a name for himself in his mid-20’s as a smooth skating, puck moving defenseman who could regularly provide point totals in the mid-40’s. Then, like Leddy, Brodie’s defensive struggles would become apparent before making adjustments to solidify his defense.

Unlike Leddy, when Brodie’s defensive game took a change for the better between 2017-18 and 2018-19, his offensive output would stay the same. However, the next season, 2019-20, Brodie’s offensive numbers would dip severely, albeit still playing a sound game in his own end. It was after this season that Brodie hit the UFA market and signed with Toronto. Now for Leddy, much as it was for Brodie after making impressive changes to his defensive game, but hitting some bumps in the road, he will hit the UFA market.

Ultimately, Leddy’s market should come down to a combination of factors that should include the flat salary cap, how teams believe his game will fit in their system, and perhaps most importantly, how those teams feel his game, which is particularly skating-reliant, will age over the life of the contract. What may be his biggest selling point, however, is something mentioned in the beginning of this article: his 125 games, and counting, in the Stanley Cup playoffs, accumulated over 10 of his 12 NHL seasons, including a Stanley Cup, experience which, of course, cannot be taken away with age.

Edmonton Oilers Recall Seven Players

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The Edmonton Oilers’ AHL affiliate, the Bakersfield Condors, were eliminated from the Calder Cup playoffs on Friday, and as a result, the Oilers became free to call up players without fear of their absences negatively impacting their affiliate team. Today, the Oilers announced that they have called up seven players from the Condors, a group that will form the team’s “Black Aces,” or players who practice, travel, and remain ready for their NHL teams but typically do not see game action. Those seven players are:

Perhaps the most significant name there is the goaltender, Skinner. In the unfortunate and unlikely circumstance that the Oilers’ starting goaltender, Mike Smith, gets injured or is otherwise unable to play, it’s possible that coach Jay Woodcroft could prefer to start Skinner over backup Mikko Koskinen, given their respective performances in the regular season. Koskinen played in 45 games this regular season and had a .903 save percentage and a 3.10 goals-against-average. Skinner, on the other hand, posted a .913 save percentage this year, albeit in only 13 games of work at the NHL level.

The Oilers are obviously hoping that they won’t have to make such a choice, but now with Skinner and some top prospects such as Broberg, Holloway, and Samorukov in the fold, they have some more options in case this version of the Battle of Alberta proves to be especially violent.

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