Kevin Allen’s Latest: Early Predictions, Pivotal Players
Kevin Allen writes that the Detroit Red Wings are one of five teams in danger of missing the playoffs this season. Similar to his reports while speaking with PHR, Allen lists a questionable defensive corps, inconsistent goaltending and whether or not goal scorers like Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist will find the net as they should as reasons why they may not make it back for a 26th straight season. Though he could see them sneaking in, the Wings are more vulnerable than ever before. It all depends on youth and everything coming together.
Allen also lists the Los Angeles Kings, Philadelphia Flyers, New York Islanders, and St. Louis Blues as candidates to possibly miss. With the Kings, Allen believes that the Calgary Flames and Arizona Coyotes, if better, could push the Kings who lost Milan Lucic to Edmonton. The Flyers, a surprise team in the playoffs last season, will have more competition in the Metropolitan Division while the Canadiens, who struggled after Carey Price‘s injury, will also be better in the Atlantic, making the Eastern Conference a lot tougher.
The Islanders, Allen writes, lost some key players in Frans Nielsen, and Kyle Okposo. Though he calls it “sinful” to bet against a John Tavares led team, he still wonders if they grabbed enough to compensate for their losses. Finally, with the Blues, Allen reports that they took a “half step” back while division foes Chicago, Minnesota, and Nashville all improved. Further, Arizona and Calgary are better, crowding the already tight Western Conference. Losing David Backes, Brian Elliott, and Troy Brouwer also doesn’t help for depth purposes.
- Earlier in the week, Allen also compiled a list of the ten most pivotal players heading into the season. Number one on that list is Kari Lehtonen, who will make an early push to be the primary option between the pipes for the Stars. Though he has struggled in the past, he has the opportunity to backstop a potential Stanley Cup contender. Should he not, the Stars have been an oft-reported team to land Ben Bishop should he be available. Other names Allen included were Brian Campbell, a player he believes could solidify the Blackhawks defense, and Elliott, who could finally give the Flames a strong goaltending option.
Five Questions With USA Today’s Kevin Allen
The USA Today’s Kevin Allen was kind enough to sit down with PHR and survey the hockey landscape as the season is just under a month away from starting. Allen takes a look at early contenders, whether the Red Wings are in as much as trouble as some think, and of course, some insights on Jimmy Vesey.
Allen has written for the USA Today since 1986, and won the Lester Patrick Award in 2013 and the Elmer Ferguson Memorial Award in 2014. He was also inducted into the USA Hockey Hall of Fame in 2013 and the Hockey Hall of Fame in 2014. Make sure to give Kevin a follow on Twitter @bykevinallen. You can also catch up on Allen’s coverage here.
PHR: Very early predictions: Who do you see as contenders for the upcoming season, barring any unforeseen injuries?
Allen: The Tampa Bay Lightning are my early pick to win it all. With Steven Stamkos now healthy and not worrying about his future, I foresee him uncorking a monster season. This team has all the necessary ingredients to win it all, and Jonathan Drouin will make the Lightning stronger by having a breakthrough season. Don’t be surprised if Andrei Vasilevskiy becomes the No. 1 goalie. That might allow GM Steve Yzerman the opportunity to deal Ben Bishop at the trade deadline to add another piece for his puzzle. I’m also not discounting the Pittsburgh Penguins, although we all know how challenging it is to repeat. Also, the Washington Capitals will be right there again. The Montreal Canadiens, with a healthy Carey Price, and the addition of Andrew Shaw, Alexander Radulov and Shea Weber, will be much improved. Radulov is not Alexander Semin.
In the West, I like the Chicago Blackhawks because Brian Campbell will make their defense whole again. The erosion of their depth does, however, concern me. I have the high-scoring Dallas Stars number two because I believe they will deal for a goalie near the trade deadline. Wouldn’t Bishop be a good fit for them? I have the Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks in my next grouping. The Predators’ have more potential than fans seem to realize. P.K. Subban is a much better fit for coach Peter Laviolette’s attacking offensive system than Weber was. The Sharks will be the same force they were last May and June.
PHR: Concern seems to be rising about the Detroit Red Wings–everything from contract terms, direction, and what seems to be an aversion to invest in the youth of the team. Do you think that concern is warranted?
Allen: Yes, only because we simply have no idea how effective their younger players are going to be. The Red Wings are a hard read because there are too many variables. Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist seemed to take a step back last season, and it’s anybody’s guess whether Anthony Mantha will be an impact player. How sharp will Petr Mrazek be this season? The Thomas Vanek signing was a good roll of the dice, and Frans Nielsen will be a quality No. 2 center. But the Red Wings are the league’s mystery team. It wouldn’t be surprising if they missed the playoffs by 10 points, and it wouldn’t be shocking if they were the No. 4 or No. 5 team in the Eastern Conference.
PHR: Who do you feel had the best offseason?
- New York Rangers: Jeff Gorton improved the team speed with the addition of Michael Grabner. Nathan Gerbe is also quick. He signed skillful Pavel Buchnevich out of the Kontinental Hockey League. They stunned plenty of people by landing Jimmy Vesey and they changed their look by trading finesse center Derick Brassard for bigger and younger center Mika Zibanejad; Defenseman Nick Holden also wasn’t a bad pick-up.
- Montreal Canadiens: Addressed many problems. They will be more difficult to play against now because of the addition of Andrew Shaw and Shea Weber. In the long-term, the Canadiens will lose the Subban-for-Weber trade. But in the short term, Weber is the perfect fit for this team.
- Arizona Coyotes: Young GM John Chayka added Alex Goligoski, Jamie McGinn, Radim Vrbata and a few prime prospects. I like the addition of Lawson Crouse and Jakob Chychrun.
PHR: How will Jiri Hudler fit in with Dallas? Do you see a season closer to 2014-15 or 2015-16?
Allen: It’s a nifty pick-up by GM Jim Nill who knows Hudler well from their days together in Detroit. This merely adds to the team’s already strong offense. He still has magic in his hands. He should be a 55 to 60-point guy.
PHR: After all the hoopla with Jimmy Vesey, how do you see him fitting in with the Rangers?
Allen: He may play on a line with his buddy Kevin Hayes. Obviously, there are several examples of major college free agents not panning out. But scouts believe Vesey will be a quality NHL scorer. Depending upon whether he receives power play time, he might be a 20-goal guy this season.
Snapshots: AHL Coaching Promotions, Price, Canadiens
The Toronto Sun’s Michael Traikos writes that the flow of coaches from the American Hockey League to the NHL continues steady. With the recent hire of Jared Bednar, Traikos reports that 23 coaches in the NHL have been a bench boss in the AHL at some point in their career. The wild success of Mike Sullivan, who was tapped by the Penguins mid-season from their own affiliate in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, seems to have once again made the AHL to NHL pipeline hot again. Traikos continues that teams are promoting coaches like they do players, investing heavily on both the ice and the bench. Jon Cooper, head coach of the Tampa Bay Lightning, is an example of that, as his guidance at both the AHL and NHL has paid dividends for the Bolts. Could Bednar’s success with the Monsters follow the pattern of Sullivan and Cooper?
In other NHL news:
- NBC Sports writes on the Canadiens today and includes a piece on Carey Price and what could happen should injury befall him again. Drawing upon the signing of Al Montoya, NBC’s James O’Brien isn’t so sure Montoya could handle the scrutiny that comes with being a netminder in Montreal. While writing that Montoya is an upgrade over Mike Condon, but adds that the Habs “live and die” by Price. Despite being a high pick in the 2004 (6th overall), Montoya has never risen to the level of being “the guy” and as O’Brien astutely points out, Montoya is a great pickup so long as he’s not relied upon in heavy doses. One another interesting point: will Marc Bergevin get a “Price pass,” should he go down again this season?
- In another Habs article on NBC, Joey Alfieri wonders where the Canadiens will finish this season. Noting the importance of having Price, Alfieri writes that the veteran goaltender has taken great lengths to improve his conditioning and diet. Montreal also added Shea Weber and Andrew Shaw, two critical pieces that should help a team decimated by Price’s injury last season. A healthy squad, with Price backstopping them, should help Montreal back to its winning ways.
Snapshots: Glass; Las Vegas; Leafs; Canadiens
News and notes from around the NHL:
- The Toronto Maple Leafs extended a training camp invitation to goaltender Jeff Glass, according to the Globe and Mail’s James Mirtle. Glass was a heralded Ottawa Senators prospect in 2004-05, propelling Canada’s World Junior team to Gold with a 1.40GAA and a .944 SV% in five games. The Canadian goalie spent the next four years with Ottawa’s AHL affiliate Binghamton Senators but was unable to crack the big league roster. Glass then went overseas to the KHL in 2009 and remained there on a variety of teams throughout his career. The goalie will be battling for an AHL position, as the Leafs already have Frederik Andersen and Jhonas Enroth under contract. Both goaltenders, however, are playing in the World Cup of Hockey this September, so the Leafs need someone to fill in between the pipes. Glass will be competing with Garret Sparks and Antoine Bibeau, both of whom had significant playing time last year with the Marlies.
- The Las Vegas NHL team moves one step closer to a team name this week after allegedly filing for a variety of potential team names, including the Desert Knights. Bill Foley, the Las Vegas expansion team owner, has consistently expressed interest in a name that included Knights or Hawks, and Desert Knights seems to be the one that poses the least risk intellectual-property wise. The ‘desert’ moniker may have been added to avoid conflict with the London Knights, an OHL team in London, Ontario, Canada.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs announced its Rookie Camp tournament roster today, and 2016 NHL Draft first overall pick Auston Matthews is not among the players listed. The team does list four picks from that draft, and the rest of the tournament is made up of AHL players and players from previous drafts—including highly-touted prospect Mitch Marner. The tournament consists of three games against rookie teams from the Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, and Pittsburgh Penguins.
- The Montreal Canadiens also released their Rookie Camp tournament roster today. Notable players include 2016 NHL Draft ninth overall pick Mikhail Sergachyov and goalie prospect Zach Fucale. Sergachyov came over from Russia to play for the Windsor Spitfires of the OHL in 2014-2015 and led all defensemen in goals with 17 in 67 games. Unlike Alex Nylander, however, Sergachyov would return to the OHL if he does not make the Canadiens NHL roster because he was drafted by the Windsor Spitfires rather than loaned from a European club. Goalie Zach Fucale was called up by the Canadiens last season after Carey Price battled injury, but the young prospect did not see the ice before being sent back down to the Quebec Remparts of the QMJHL.
Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: McCarron, Chabot, Matthews, Nylander
Continuing on with Pro Hockey Rumors 2016-17 rookie profiles, we remain in the Atlantic Division. Included among today’s batch of first-year players is the most recent #1 overall draft choice, Auston Matthews. You can find the previous editions here, here and here.
Michael McCarron (Montreal) – A quick look at Montreal’s depth chart shows the Canadiens could surely use some size up front and McCarron is someone who boasts that trait in spades. At 6-foot-6 and 231 pounds. McCarron would easily be the largest forward on the ice for Montreal by a wide margin. But size isn’t the only quality he brings to the table; McCarron can also add some offense.
In his first taste of professional hockey, McCarron recorded 17 goals and 38 points for the St. John’s IceCaps in the AHL. That’s solid production for a first-year pro who played most of the season at 20-years-old.
McCarron would also get his first taste of the NHL playing 20 games with the Canadiens and scoring his first career big league goal. He also had a -10 plus-minus rating and although plus-minus ratings aren’t necessarily a good indicator of two-way prowess, it does suggest McCarron could use more polishing in the AHL. However, if he does get his chance in Montreal thi year, McCarron should at least add physicality and skill to the team’s bottom-six.
Thomas Chabot (Ottawa) – The Ottawa Senators used their first-round pick in 2015 on skilled, two-way defenseman Thomas Chabot and there is a decent chance he debuts this season in Canada’s capital. Scouting reports credit Chabot for being quick-thinking and an excellent skater; both traits that will fit well into today’s style of play in the NHL. But if Chabot wants to make an impact in the NHL he’ll have to ramp up the intensity.
Ottawa assistant GM Randy Lee felt Chabot’s performance at the team’s summer development camp was not up to par and evidently communicated that to the top prospect, as written about by Ken Warren of the Ottawa Sun.
“I thought Thomas should have been a bit more intense, I thought Thomas should have dominated. I think Thomas should look at the landscape and see we’ve got six signed defencemen (to NHL contracts) … Thomas and I have talked about it.”
Clearly the Ottawa organization has high expectations for Chabot and will give him every chance to make the team this season. The Senators do have six NHL-caliber blue liners under contract, all of whom with significant professional experience. Erik Karlsson, Cody Ceci, Marc Mathot and Dion Phaneuf should hold down spots in the club’s top-four with Mark Borowiecki and Chris Wideman forming the third pair. Of the group, Wideman has the least amount of NHL experience with just 64 games played. However he does have nearly three seasons of AHL experience under his belt as well. Chabot will have his work cut out for him if he wants to suit up for the Senators this season.
Auston Matthews (Toronto) – Matthews, the first overall choice in the June’s entry draft, will be an early favorite for the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie. He is considered a future face-of-the-franchise player and while maybe not quite on the same level with Connor McDavid, last year’s top pick, in terms of being a “generational” talent, Matthews is still an exciting prospect.
Matthews already demonstrates excellent two-way ability and at 6-foot-2, 216 pounds has the requisite size to handle the rigors of a long NHL season. Additionally, his experience playing professionally against full-grown men in Switzerland should help facilitate his transition to the NHL. The Leafs have lacked a truly elite center since Mats Sundin left the club following the 2007-2008 campaign but all signs point to Matthews quickly filling that void.
William Nylander (Toronto) – The Maple Leafs have done an excellent job of adding high-end young talent to the organization in recent years and Nylander is part of the wave of top prospects preparing to lead Toronto to the top of the standings. Nylander reached the NHL last season and held his own in 22 games scoring six goals and 13 points while averaging 16:20 of ice time per contest.
Nylander also excelled playing for the Toronto Marlies in the AHL, tallying 18 goals and 45 points in 45 regular season games. In the postseason he added seven goals in 14 contests for the Marlies. It’s expected he’ll have a spot to lose in the Leafs’ top-four to open the season and has the skill to be one of the club’s top offensive producers.
Hockey apparently runs in the Nylander family blood as William’s father Michael carved out a solid NHL career playing for seven NHL clubs over a 15-year career. Alexander Nylander, William’s brother, was drafted by the Buffalo Sabres in the first round of the 2016 entry draft.
Canadiens Name Eric Crawford As Director Of Pro Scouting
After the Las Vegas expansion team hired away Vaughn Karpan this week, the Montreal Canadiens were left without a director of pro scouting, and today have named his replacement. Eric Crawford, a former member of the Vancouver Canucks front office was hired by Montreal as a pro scout last season, and will be promoted to the vacant position.
The younger brother of long-time NHL head coach and now Ottawa assistant Marc Crawford, Eric joined the Montreal front office after 16 seasons in various positions with the Canucks, including director of player personnel from 2010-2015. He was part of the teams that drafted players like Ryan Kesler, Cory Schneider, Alexander Edler and Bo Horvat, but also missed on quite a few high draft picks throughout the last decade.
Crawford will join Trevor Timmins, the current vice president of player personnel and director of amateur scouting, to try and turn around a Montreal franchise that was exposed without the goaltending of Carey Price a season ago. With young players like Alex Galchenyuk and the newly drafted Mikhail Sergachev in the mix, Crawford and Timmins have the start of a promising future; now they must continue it.
Atlantic Notes: Radulov, Jurco, Nylander, Hunter
Stu Cowan for the National Post profiles new Canadiens winger Alex Radulov today. The article discusses the obvious pressures of playing in Montreal, as well as the heavy fan attention Radulov has already received. Cowan, and Radulov, also discussed a past incident in which he missed curfew during the playoffs while with the Nashville Predators. Radulov has made it clear he believes that the past is behind him, and that he’s matured over the last four years. It’s mentioned that he’s now married, and a recent father. Real world responsibilities do often have a civilizing effect on people. The Canadiens will have to hope Radulov can prove himself as a player, and a person. In the wake of the P.K. Subban trade, especially after character was cited as a partial reason, Radulov and this year’s Canadiens will be under tremendous scrutiny.
Here’s more from around the Atlantic Division:
- Red Wings GM Ken Holland tells Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press that forward Tomas Jurco will miss the start of training camp with a back injury. Jurco was injured while training in Slovakia, and had surgery on this side of the Atlantic last week. St. James notes that he’ll be far from the only Red Wing absent from early camp, with eight players participating in the World Cup of Hockey. Jurco, 23, had four goals and six points in 44 games for the Red Wings last year. The Red Wings will also be without prospect Vili Saarijarvi, who recently had wrist surgery.
- Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston wrote today about the Maple Leafs’ promotion of new assistant general manager Mark Hunter. In the piece, Johnston quotes GM Lou Lamoriello’s effusive praise of Hunter, and paints a portrait of a determined, hard working executive. Hunter heads up Toronto’s scouting and player development, and previously served as GM of the OHL’s London Knights, a team he still owns. Johnston also speculates about Hunter’s potential to take over for Lamoriello after he retires, while noting that another assistant GM, Kyle Dubas, has long been assumed to be next in line.
- Erik Wollschlager of Today’s Slapshot insists that Sabres prospect Alex Nylander should be in the AHL next year. Since he plays in the OHL on loan from a Swedish team, he’s eligible to play in the AHL, despite remaining junior eligibility. Nylander’s older brother, Leafs prospect William Nylander, played in the AHL this season at age 19. It’s hard to tell if he’s necessarily too good for the OHL, or ready for the AHL, but Wollschlager lays out a strong case.
Las Vegas Hires Karpan, Campese
The Las Vegas TBAs and GM George McPhee have continued to add strong hockey voices to their front office, today hiring Bruno Campese as an amateur scout and Vaughn Karpan as their director of player personnel.
Karpan, 55, had been with the Montreal Canadiens organization since 2005, and last year was promoted to director of professional scouting. During his playing days, Karpan was a member of the Canadian national team from 1983-1988 and competed at two Olympic games, coming in fourth both times (the Soviet Union won both tournaments). Regarded as an exceptionally knowledgeable hockey mind that leans slightly analytical at times, Karpan will represent a good balance to a front office with long-time GMs in McPhee and assistant general manager Kelly McCrimmon.
Campese is a former head coach and general manager of the Prince Albert Raiders of the WHL, and has been around the game for a long time going back to his selection by the Boston Bruins in the 12th round of the 1982 draft. He never made it to the NHL, though he did play professionally in a handful of other countries around the world. Campese also competed at the Olympics, this time the 1994 games for his home country of Italy. Though it’s not clear where his territory will be, bringing in a scout with experience in less-known hockey countries like Italy and Austria can never be a bad thing.
These hires represent some of the first few that don’t have immediate ties to McPhee from the Washington Capitals organization, though McCrimmon would be very familiar with Campese from his days in the WHL, and played with Karpan in junior hockey with the Brandon Wheat Kings in 1979-80.
Atlantic Division Snapshots: Radulov, Holland, Larkin, Kempfer
One of the summer’s more interesting free agent signings, winger Alexander Radulov, met for the first time with the Montreal media and Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette transcribed the event. It’s worth a read in full but here are some of the highlights.
- Radulov talked about how “things change,” as you grow older, implying he feels is a more mature player than the one who left Nashville. Of course Radulov, along with then teammate Andrei Kostitsyn, is notoriously remembered for missing curfew the night before a playoff game in Nashville’s second round series against the Coyotes in 2012. After the Predators were eliminated, Radulov left the NHL to return to the KHL.
- He addressed where he might fit into the Canadiens lineup and gave an answer typical of a player by deferring to his coaches.
- Even though Radulov had other options, Florida and Detroit were both rumored to be interested in the skilled winger, his experience as a junior player in Quebec led to him choosing to sign with Montreal.
“We played and we won the Memorial Cup. It was a lot of fun and I saw those fans when they were the happiest people in the world. What can be better than when you make people, fans happy, and that’s the best time.”
Radulov has the skill to be one of the elite offensive wingers in the game and ordinarily securing a player of his ability to a one-year deal worth $5MM would be considered an absolute steal. But given his baggage, no team wanted to go beyond a one year commitment in case it doesn’t work out. Montreal made a similar addition in the summer of 2015 when they signed Alexander Semin to a cheap contract, one which didn’t work out. It’s possible the Radulov signing won’t work out either but it’s a good gamble to take for Montreal given their need for more offensive firepower.
More from the Atlantic Division…..
- Ansar Khan of MLive opened up his mailbag and answered an array of reader questions. Of particular note was the sense of frustration fans are feeling about longtime GM Ken Holland. Not only is Detroit not considered serious Stanley Cup contenders at this point, there is also the impression that some of Holland’s recent re-signings for veteran Red Wing players will serve to hamstring the club’s salary cap situation in future seasons. Again, there’s plenty of insight in the post so feel free to give it a read in its entirety.
- Writing for the Sun Sentinel, Harvey Fialkov discusses the upcoming battle veteran defenseman Steve Kampfer faces to make the Florida roster despite coming off a career-best season with the Panthers. Kampfer appeared in 47 games in 2015-16 and told Fialkov that if not for a late-season injury he would have been in the lineup during the playoffs. Florida made several notable additions to their blue line this summer, bringing in Keith Yandle, Jason Demers and Mark Pysyk to add skill and puck-handling ability to the defense corps. Joining the new trio is young superstar Aaron Ekblad. Jakub Kindl and Alex Petrovic round out the top six on the team’s depth chart. Kampfer is going to face an uphill battle to earn playing time but it’s a battle the veteran depth defender is fairly accustomed to.
Retained Salary in 2016-17: Atlantic Division
As a new season fast approaches, it’s always nice to look back and reminisce on years and players gone by. Unfortunately for most NHL teams, those feelings of nostalgia are usually cut short by the realization that some of those past players are still on the team’s payroll. Retained salary is a fact of life in the National Hockey League, as buyouts have become commonplace and retaining a portion of an outgoing player’s cap hit is often a deal-breaker in many trades. Retained salary can last long past the playing days of a former player (see Vincent Lecavalier) or can simply be for just one year. One way or another nearly every NHL team has at least one guy who’s still being paid without having to perform. We’ve already examined the Metropolitan and the Pacific; below is a list of all the retained salary in the Atlantic Division in 2016-17: