Free Agency

July 1st is typically filled with hundreds of millions committed to contracts signed in the early hours of free agency.  However, this is no ordinary year and as a result, the UFA market is on hold for a while yet with the Stanley Cup on pace to be awarded sometime in October with the official offseason expected to start in November.  So instead of there being plenty of new deals to talk about, let’s take a look back at the free agent frenzy from recent years.  Last up in our series is 2019 with 2017 and 2018 being covered earlier in the week.

The previous two openings of the free agent period featured a lot of prominent re-signings without a big flurry of notable players heading elsewhere; there were a few but only a few.  That changed last summer as several significant players opted to head for new teams.

For the purpose of this exercise, we’re limiting our scope to the deals handed out on July 1st itself which means players like Jake Gardiner and Marcus Johansson who were in the top-15 of our UFA list but signed later are not considered here.

Key Re-Signings

Anders Lee (NYI) – 7 years, $49MM – While not the biggest point producer, Lee had 104 goals to his name over the past three seasons which helped him garner considerable interest around the league but his focus was staying in New York and remaining as their captain.  His numbers this season weren’t terrible but he was at his lowest goal-per-game pace since 2015-16 when the pandemic hit while he was hovering around a 50-point pace as well.  They need more than that from Lee to get good value on this deal.

Sebastian Aho (CAR) – 5 years, $42.27MM – Okay, technically, this wasn’t a re-signing as the Canadiens tendered him an offer sheet to get to this point.  But it may as well have been as the potential compensation to the Hurricanes wasn’t enough to give them any pause to match it.  While being more of a playmaker early in his career, Aho showed his scoring touch more often this season, finishing tied for sixth in the league in that department while averaging nearly a point per game.  He looks like he’ll live up to the deal without any issue but this contract does take him to UFA eligibility while he’s in the prime of his career and by the time he hits the open market, the current salary cap concerns should largely be mitigated.

Timo Meier (SJ) – 4 years, $24MM – This one makes it on here for the structure of the deal.  The fourth and final season of the contract carries a $10MM salary which then represents his required qualifying offer in June of 2023 which, given the new salary cap picture, looks potentially even more worrisome.  Meier’s performance this year was lower than 2018-19 but that’s something that could be said for just about everyone in San Jose.  He should provide some value on his current $6MM AAV but that qualifying offer already looms large.

Top AAV Free Agent Signings

(Players changing teams)

Artemi Panarin (NYR) – 7 years, $81.5MM – Everyone knew Panarin was heading for a big payday and yet this deal still raised some eyebrows as it made him the highest-paid winger in NHL history.  Accordingly, at no point will this be viewed as a bargain contract but he lived up to it this season, finishing tied for third in team scoring with 95 points and was only behind Edmonton’s Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in assists with 63.  That’s pretty good company to be in.

Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA) – 7 years, $70MM – He was handed the richest deal ever given to a goalie on the open market (Carey Price’s contract with Montreal was an early extension, not a free agent deal) and the results were anything but pretty.  Bobrovsky struggled pretty much all season long and posted a GAA of 3.23 and a .900 SV%, numbers that aren’t good for a backup let alone a starter.  His contract means he’ll be afforded plenty of opportunities to turn things around but this could be a real problem down the road.

Matt Duchene (NSH) – 7 years, $56MM – His offensive struggles with Columbus after being acquired from Ottawa wound up being a precursor to this season as things did not go well for him this season.  His 13 goals were the lowest of his career while 42 points in 66 games is not the type of production that an $8MM price tag should yield.  The Predators have done plenty to add to their center depth in recent years with the addition of Duchene, Kyle Turris, and Nick Bonino.  Despite all of the money invested in them, it’s still a weak spot.

Joe Pavelski (DAL) – 3 years, $21MM – It came as a bit of a shock that he was willing to leave San Jose after 14 seasons with the team but getting three guaranteed years just 10 days before turning 35 was pretty good on his end.  Unfortunately, the Stars haven’t got much of a reward for that deal just yet as Pavelski turned in basically the worst offensive season of his career in 2019-20 with just 14 goals and 17 assists in 67 games.  There was a risk that he wouldn’t be a top line player by the time the deal was done but not many expected that to happen within the first few months of the contract.

Ones To Forget

Tyler Myers (VAN) – 5 years, $30MM – For all of the flak he takes, Myers has carved out a solid 11-year career so far.  But $6MM for a player that is best used as a fourth defender or lower isn’t a great deal, nor was the five-year term that takes him into his mid-30s.  His point per game average (0.31) was his lowest since his age-22 season in Buffalo in 2012-13.  It’s an overpay in both money and term and that’s not an ideal combination.

Mats Zuccarello (MIN) – 5 years, $30MM – Over the last four years, Zuccarello had reached the 50-point mark three times and played at a 68-point pace in the one he didn’t get there due to injury.  That made him seem like a relatively safe bet on the open market as someone that could come in and provide Minnesota with some consistent production from the second line.  It didn’t happen this season, however, as he had just 15 goals and 22 assists in 65 games while seeing his ice time drop from nearly 20 minutes a night the year before to not even 16 per game in 2019-20.

Anton Stralman (FLA) – 3 years, $16.5MM – While Stralman was brought in to provide some much-needed stability to Florida’s defense (which he did), this was still a hefty price to pay for a veteran boost on the second pairing.  The Panthers found themselves in cost-cutting mode towards the end of the season and a big part of that was this deal along with Bobrovsky’s.  The shorter term makes this a little more palatable but it’s still a big overpayment in terms of AAV.

Wayne Simmonds (NJ) – 1 year, $5MM – After a tough showing in 2018-19 including a poor performance in Nashville, Simmonds opted for a pillow contract with the hopes of cashing in this coming offseason instead.  It’s safe to say that’s not going to happen.  The veteran struggled mightily on a bad New Jersey team and didn’t look much better in Buffalo either where the Devils had to retain half of the remainder of the contract simply to get a 2021 fifth-round pick.

Bargains

Tyler Ennis (OTT) – 1 year, $800K – After having a minimal role with Toronto the year before, Ennis signed with the Senators in the hopes of getting more of an opportunity to play in an offensive role and he responded with 33 points in 61 games before being moved to Calgary at the trade deadline.  He was relatively productive with the Flames as well.  Overall, getting 16 goals and 21 assists for just over the league minimum in a shortened season is one of the better UFA bargains in recent years.

Joakim Ryan (LA) – 1 year, $725K – After playing a limited role in San Jose, Ryan sought a bigger opportunity when he signed with the Kings.  He certainly got that as his average ice time went up by more than six minutes a game while he wound up being voted as the team’s best defenseman and Unsung Hero.  While that is partially an indictment on how much Los Angeles struggled this season, it’s also a sign that Ryan has taken a step forward in his development.  To get that for barely over the minimum was a nice piece of business by GM Rob Blake even if it went under the radar.

Jason Spezza (TOR) – 1 year, $700K – No, Spezza isn’t the player he was in his prime but his true value on the open market was for more than the minimum salary.  However, he wanted to play in his hometown which the Maple Leafs used to their advantage.  To his credit, while his ice time dipped considerably (from 13:16 per game to 10:50), his point per game average was actually higher than his final two seasons in Dallas while he was once again strong at the faceoff dot.  Playing at a 35-point pace from the fourth line is something a lot of players can’t do, let alone ones at the absolute bottom of the salary scale.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

July 1st is typically filled with hundreds of millions committed to contracts signed in the early hours of free agency.  However, this is no ordinary year and as a result, the UFA market is on hold for a while yet with the Stanley Cup on pace to be awarded sometime in October with the official offseason beginning after that.  So instead of there being plenty of new deals to talk about, let’s take a look back at the free agent frenzy from recent years.  Next up is 2018 while 2019 will run on Friday.  Click here for the 2017 retrospective.

Once again, the biggest deals of the day were contract extensions with the majority of the UFA market being three years or lower.  However, there were a handful of longer-term deals handed out with the results being somewhat of a mixed bag.

For the purpose of this exercise, we’re limiting our scope to the deals handed out on July 1st itself which means players like James Neal and Calvin de Haan who were in the top-10 of our UFA list but signed later are not considered here.

Key Re-Signings

Drew Doughty (LA) – 8 years, $88MM – Doughty’s signing had been speculated for a few days prior to this but July 1st was when it was made official, making him the highest-paid defenseman in NHL history at the time.  Doughty had plenty of leverage as he was going to be one of the top UFAs a year later and was coming off a career year but the early returns haven’t been great.  His production dipped in 2018-19 and again this season to his lowest point per game average since 2013-14 while struggling a bit more than usual at the defensive end.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARI) – 8 years, $66MM – This was another move that had been rumored for quite a while but the Coyotes had to wait until this time to extend their captain to the richest deal in team history.  Like Doughty, there was no denying that he was one of the top players that could have potentially hit the open market a year later and while it’s a bit on the expensive side, losing him would have been disastrous.  Ekman-Larsson is coming off of a bit of a down year but he’s young enough that there are still several strong years left in him.

Logan Couture (SJ) – 8 year, $64MM – Yet another deal that was reported a few days beforehand but couldn’t be made official until the turning of the NHL calendar, Couture’s contract seemed a bit pricey at the time but it has held up well so far.  He was coming off of one of his better offensive years at the time and since then, he had a career season in 2018-19 before injuries derailed his 2019-20 campaign.  However, with six years left on the deal, he may very well slow down towards the end of it.

Ryan McDonagh (TB) – 7 years, $47.25MM – Several Tampa Bay players have taken a bit less than market value to stick around and McDonagh continued that trend as a $6.75MM AAV for someone that was a top-pairing defender at the time was cheaper than expected.  However, the seven-year term came as a surprise and could present some problems before too long as the 31-year-old had his worst offensive year since his rookie campaign while his ATOI has dropped nearly four minutes a night from three years ago.

Top AAV Free Agent Signings

(Players changing teams)

John Tavares (TOR) – 7 years, $77MM – This one came as a bit of a surprise given what Toronto had on the horizon for signing their top young stars but they still managed to find a way to bring him in.  At an $11MM AAV, the contract was never going to be a bargain at any stage but he has averaged over a point per game over his two years with the team while taking over as team captain.  He’s providing them with what they expected – a legitimate top center – but with the cap crunch coming as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, this deal along with those handed to their top youngsters could soon paint the Maple Leafs into a bit of a corner when it comes to trying to keep the core together; Morgan Rielly and Frederik Andersen aren’t that far away from being UFA-eligible themselves.

James van Riemsdyk (PHI) – 5 years, $35MM – Who says you can’t go back to a former team?  He did just that by signing with Philadelphia who initially drafted him second overall back in 2007.  He gave up a bit of term to take a bit higher of a salary relative to expectation and while he hasn’t quite produced at a $7MM level, he has been reasonably productive, tallying 46 goals over his first two years despite a dip in ice time compared to his average over his time with Toronto.  One area of some concern is van Riemsdyk’s drop in power play production – he had 39 points (17-22-39) with the man advantage over his last two seasons with Toronto but just 22 (12-10-22) with the Flyers.

Paul Stastny (VGK) – 3 years, $19.5MM – A late effort by Winnipeg to free up money to sign Stastny proved unfruitful as he moved on to Vegas where his production has taken a dip.  Injuries limited him to just 50 games over his first season while this year, he had the lowest point per game average of his career (0.54) over his 71 games.  The shorter term is certainly beneficial though; as much as the $6.5MM AAV isn’t an ideal price tag, they’ll be out of the contract a year from now while he still provides them with some quality depth down the middle.

Ones To Forget

Ilya Kovalchuk (LA) – 3 years, $18.75MM – Kovalchuk’s return to the NHL from Russia cost more than expected, especially for someone on a 35-plus contract.  The early returns were good too as he had 14 points over his first 14 games with the Kings before things went completely off the rails.  His ice time dropped quickly and he was told late in the year that he could skate with the team if he wanted to but wouldn’t play.  It didn’t get any better this year and he was eventually sent home to await a contract termination once a signing bonus instalment was paid.  Kovalchuk wound up with Montreal before he was shipped to Washington near the trade deadline while Los Angeles now has $6.25MM in dead cap space for next season because of the 35-plus distinction.

Jack Johnson (PIT) – 5 years, $16.25MM – Handing a 32-year old player that many viewed as a third pairing option a five-year deal raised a lot of eyebrows.  Johnson’s no longer the top pairing player he was in his prime but he’s still decent in a limited role.  However, for a team that’s cap-strapped as often as Pittsburgh is, having a player costing $3.25MM against the cap that is down to that type of role isn’t ideal.  It’s not a massive price tag but with the salary cap now flattening out, this could cause some problems in the near future.

John Moore (BOS) – 5 years, $13.75MM – The $2.75MM isn’t a terrible price tag on its own but the five-year term didn’t make much sense then and less now.  Yes, injuries cost him 30 games this season but he was still scratched on several occasions while his ice time dipped to 16:33 per night.  It’s fair to suggest he’s not a part of their top six now and with some youngsters on the cusp of making it, Moore may not make back into that group either.

Jay Beagle (VAN) – 4 years, $12MM – For years, Beagle has filled a specific role and done it well – he wins faceoffs and logs a lot of ice time shorthanded.  That role carries some value on a lot of teams but it doesn’t change the fact that he’s a fourth liner.  Giving a fourth liner $3MM per year carries some risk, especially for four years and even more so knowing that he was 33 in his first season with the Canucks.  Beagle still wins draws and kills penalties but he struggled considerably outside of those situations and two more years of that deal on the books isn’t ideal.

Leo Komarov (NYI) – 4 years, $12MM – Komarov’s at his best in a limited role where his physicality can make a difference.  The Islanders had several of those players when they signed him – they still do – and his effectiveness has waned over the first two years to the point where he was in the press box as a scratch on multiple occasions.  At $1MM, he would provide some value still but at three times that, it may become a problem deal over the next couple of years.

Bargains

David Perron (STL) – 4 years, $16MM – Going back to a former team isn’t rare but it’s still relatively uncommon.  Going back for a third stint with the same team is much rarer but that’s what happened here.  Perron had a career year in Vegas with 66 points so this was somewhat of a below-market deal and he has played quite well on it.  While his point per game average with Vegas was the best of his career, these last two seasons were his second and third highest.  $4MM doesn’t always get you a lot on the open market but a capable top-six forward is certainly better than most.

Jonathan Bernier (DET) – 3 years, $9MM – This begins the run on goalies as basically every other bargain deal was signed by a netminder.  Bernier essentially took over as the starter for the Red Wings this season while faring okay in the first year while in a platoon role.  The overall numbers don’t look great but considering how much Detroit has struggled, they weren’t going to be great.  If he winds up being the starter again this season, the value will go up even more.

Jaroslav Halak (BOS) – 2 years, $5.5MM – Getting someone who had started as much as Halak had for this price was impressive enough.  But the value he has given Boston is more than that as they have been able to lighten Tuukka Rask’s workload and the benefits have been significant as they’ve been among the top goaltending tandems in the league since then.  Halak has embraced the role and already has signed an extension for next season.

Anton Khudobin (DAL) – 2 years, $5MM – Rask’s old partner with Boston moved on to the Stars and the results were similar to Halak with the Bruins.  He picked up a significant share of the workload which helped keep Ben Bishop rested and both netminders responded with strong performances.  With more teams starting to see the value of a platoon, Khudobin should be well-positioned to earn a raise on the open market this summer even with it not being a great time to hit free agency.  Dallas will certainly make an effort to keep him as well.

Petr Mrazek (CAR) – 1 year, $1.5MM – After a rough 2017-18 campaign, Mrazek’s market was minimal so he joined the Hurricanes with the hopes of bouncing back.  He did exactly that, posting a 2.39 GAA with a .914 SV% during the regular season which helped propel the Hurricanes to a surprising Eastern Conference Final appearance.  At a time where the good backups were signing for a fair bit more than $1.5MM, they got someone who basically did just as well for a fraction of the price.  Mrazek was able to parlay that strong performance into some job security as he landed a two-year, $6.25MM deal last July.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

It’s July 1st which means today should be filled with hundreds of millions committed to contracts signed in the early hours of free agency.  However, this is no ordinary year and as a result, the UFA market is on hold for a while yet with the Stanley Cup on pace to be awarded sometime in October with the official offseason beginning after that.  So instead of there being plenty of new deals to talk about, let’s take a look back at the frenzy from recent years.  We begin with 2017; 2018 will appear on Thursday and 2019 on Friday.

This group of free agents wasn’t the strongest overall and teams were showing a bit more restraint after a dreadful 2016 UFA market that saw quite a few brutal contracts handed out.  Nevertheless, there were still some notable deals handed out including several that haven’t worked out as well as intended.

For the purpose of this exercise, we’re limiting our scope to the deals handed out on July 1st itself which means players like Alexander Radulov and Patrick Marleau who signed soon after are not considered here.

Key Re-Signings

Cam Fowler (ANA) – 8 years, $52MM – Fowler signed this extension coming off of what was his best offensive showing since his rookie season while logging nearly 25 minutes a night.  A $6.5MM cap hit for a potential top pairing defenseman was reasonable and while injuries have hit him every year since then, it’s still not a bad deal for someone that has settled in as their second or third defender most nights.  All in all, the deal has held up pretty well.

Justin Schultz (PIT) – 3 years, $16.5MM – Schultz’s first full season with the Penguins was the best of his career as he looked as if he had finally lived up to his potential as a highly-touted blueliner.  The deal represented a reasonable price tag for a capable top-four defender with some offensive upside while allowing him another opportunity to hit the open market while still somewhat in his prime.  Instead, injuries have been an issue each year and while he had 51 points in 2016-17, he was only able to muster up that many points combined on this contract.

Sharks – San Jose gets their own section here.  Marc-Edouard Vlasic (8 years, $56MM) inked an extension that looked pricey at the time and even worse now.  He has slowed down considerably over the last couple of years and still has six seasons left on his deal.  Martin Jones’ (6 years, $34.5MM) extension hasn’t looked great either.  He has posted .896 save percentages in each of the two years of the contract, numbers that are below average for a backup let alone a starter.  Both of those contracts are hurting their salary structure and will be tough to get out from under.  Meanwhile, Joe Thornton agreed to another one-year extension worth $6.5MM.  Injuries limited him to just 47 games that year but he still managed 36 points.

Top AAV Free Agent Signings

(Players changing teams)

Kevin Shattenkirk (NYR) – 4 years, $26.6MM – Shattenkirk was the top prize to get to the open market.  It was known that he wanted to go to the Rangers and there were bigger deals that he left on the table to sign with New York.  At the time, it seemed like a fortunate turn of events for the Rangers.  It wasn’t.  He struggled considerably in his two seasons with the team before being bought out where they will incur a $6.083MM cap charge next season for having done so.

Karl Alzner (MTL) – 5 years, $23.125MM – This was the longest contract handed out to a free agent changing teams on day one of free agency in 2017.  It looked questionable at the time and worse now.  After holding down a regular role with the Canadiens in his first year with them, he has spent the majority of his time since then in the minors.  If he’s not bought out this offseason, he’ll likely be back there next season as well.

Justin Williams (CAR) – 2 years, $9MM – While he was 36 in his first season back with the team, the multi-year pact was a good one for both sides.  Williams had 51 and 53 points over his two seasons on that deal and served as their captain in 2018-19.  That performance wasn’t a huge bargain but as far as comparing it to the other notable deals signed on this day three years ago, it was one of the better contracts signed.

Ones To Forget

Martin Hanzal (DAL) – 3 years, $14.25MM – On the surface, this seemed a little pricey but not too much.  At the time, Hanzal was a capable third line center that could move up when injuries arose and overpaying for that was understandable.  Unfortunately, back issues have basically made the last two years a write-off (seven games last year, zero this season) while he missed more than half of 2017-18 as well.  In the end, they got six goals and six assists out of him for their money.

Dmitry Kulikov (WPG) – 3 years, $13MM – Kulikov’s 2016-17 season was a disaster, to put it gently.  Despite that, the Jets went off of his reputation from his time in Florida and handed him a three-year deal that didn’t make any sense from the moment it was signed.  Injuries were an issue in the first two years while being in a sheltered role when he did play.  Injuries were also a problem this season but he was better, logging 20 minutes a night for the first time with them.  The deal ends on a better note than it started but it was still a bad one.

Sam Gagner (VAN) – 3 years, $9.45MM – Gagner had a career year with Columbus heading into free agency with 50 points so from an AAV perspective, this didn’t seem excessive.  He was passable in his first year with the Canucks but then spent most of the second season of the deal in the minors.  He was dealt to Edmonton during that second season and hung around on the NHL roster for most of it this year but the output was minimal; all told, he had a combined 26 points over the final two seasons which is far from a good return.

Steve Mason (WPG) – 2 years, $8.2MM – He was brought in to mentor/push youngster Connor Hellebuyck but only played in 13 games in the first season of the contract and didn’t fare all that well.  With the Jets in a cap crunch the following summer, they had to part with Joel Armia to offload Mason’s contract on Montreal (and they immediately bought him out).  The deal worked out well for Mason as he made nearly $7MM to play those 13 games but it’s one to forget for Winnipeg.

Bargains

Evgenii Dadonov (FLA) – 3 years, $12MM – This deal carried plenty of risk since Dadonov’s first tour through the NHL (with the Panthers, no less) wasn’t good.  But he lit up the KHL to earn a second chance and has made the most of it, posting 81 goals and 101 assists over the life of the deal in 225 games.  He’s shaping up to be one of the more coveted wingers in the upcoming free agent class and even in a weaker market, he’s looking at a nice raise.

There really isn’t another big bargain out of this class as a lot of the signings early on were short-term deals for veterans or role players/minor leaguers signing quickly to get some certainty for the upcoming year.  Here are a couple of the veteran deals that panned out relatively well at least.

Ron Hainsey (TOR) – 2 years, $6MM – He wore down towards the end of the contract but he gave the Maple Leafs a little more than 21 minutes a night over the two years while chipping in with a respectable 46 points.  The team also praised the impact of his leadership at several times throughout his stint as well.  Paying $3MM a year for someone that spent a lot of time on the top pairing is a pretty good return even if he struggled by the end of it.

Ryan Miller (ANA) – 2 years, $4MM – Brought in to be an insurance policy for John Gibson, Miller wound up finishing fifth in the NHL in save percentage (.928) in his first season while posting a Goals Saved Above Average rate of 11.86 in just 28 games, his best mark in nearly a decade.  Miller’s performance was more average in his second season but with the backup goalie market going up considerably in price over the last few years, he still gave Anaheim some extra value overall.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.