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Senators Notes: Draft Picks, Nilsson, Free Agency

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Are the Ottawa Senators ready to take the next step in their rebuild and begin trading futures to add help in the present? The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch writes that Senators GM Pierre Dorion is listening to all offers for his numerous draft picks. The Senators own a whopping 13 picks in the 2020 NHL Draft, including three first-round picks and four second-round picks. In a draft class that is considered especially deep, there is a lot of value in those early picks. While No. 3 and No. 5 overall are certainly safe, No. 28 overall and any of the second-rounders could be in play. Dorion is not going to move all five of those picks, but could easily move one or two to bring in immediate help to his roster. Considering that this off-season will also see many teams looking to cut salary, the Senators could land a very good player (or two) by moving their high picks to a team that has no choice but to sacrifice the present and in Ottawa finds the opportunity to invest in the future.

  • Among the pressing roster needs that Dorion could address by dealing a pick is an addition in goal. Garrioch notes that there are concerns around the organization about presumptive starter Anders Nilsson, who has not skated since February as he deals with concussion repercussions. While Dorion is “confident” that Nilsson will be ready for the start of the season, there may still be an impact on his play. If he falters, the team does not have any NHL-proven options behind him, with youngsters Marcus Hogberg, Filip Gustavsson, Joey Daccord, and Kevin Mandolese making up their pro depth. As a result, the team may be forced to add a goalie to serve as a short-term fix. If they don’t want to fill that need on the trade market, there are also plenty of options on the free agent market.
  • A draft day trade and acquiring a goalie would be significant additions by the Senators, but they will be far from done after those moves are made. Ottawa has just eight players signed to one-way contracts for next season with maybe five or six entry-level players who will likely be on the season-opening roster. That leaves plenty of work for Dorion and company to do to fill out the roster. The team has a laundry list of restricted free agents to sign, up to nine of whom will be or at least could be on the NHL roster. Even if all of that adds up to a 23-man roster, the team also has to be wary of the $60.2MM, which they currently fall $22M under. The Senators will likely need to explore the trade and free agent markets for a few more additions before they can call their off-season complete.

Latest On Torey Krug’s Pending Free Agency

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It was always going to be difficult for the Boston Bruins to re-sign Torey Krug because of their salary cap situation, but that hasn’t stopped them from trying. Frank Seravalli of TSN reports that the team’s last offer to Krug was a six-year, $39MM contract ($6.5MM AAV). Since that may not be enough to ink the offensive defenseman, Seravalli also notes that there has been “significant interest” from teams hoping to trade for Krug’s rights before the free agent period opens next month.

The 29-year-old defenseman is one of the top free agents set to hit the open market on October 9th, perhaps even second behind Alex Pietrangelo among defenders. There are very few players who can match his offensive output, which totaled 49 points in 61 games this season with the Bruins. In fact, over the last four seasons, Krug trails only Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman, John Carlson, and Roman Josi in scoring among defensemen, five players who are consistently in the Norris Trophy race. He’s well ahead of Pietrangelo in that category, though the rest of his game is not nearly as polished.

For a team looking to improve their powerplay though, there may be no better option available. Krug trails only Brent Burns in powerplay scoring among defenseman over the last four years, a total developed through consistent performance instead of breakout seasons. The Bruins quarterback has at least 39 points in each of his seven NHL seasons and has performed even more exceptional in the postseason. Through his first 75 playoff contests, Krug has 52 points

The Bruins, with Jake Debrusk and Matt Grzelcyk still to sign as restricted free agents, aren’t swimming in cap space. The team currently sits with just over $14.4MM for the 2020-21 season, but need to consider the future when discussing a long-term deal with Krug. Charlie McAvoy will be looking at a huge raise when his current deal expires in 2022, while Brandon Carlo is up after this upcoming season. There are plenty of other question marks around the roster given the expiring deals of Tuukka Rask, Jaroslav Halak and David Krejci, though that could potentially provide an opportunity to invest in younger talent instead.

Should a team trade for Krug’s rights, they would have less than two weeks to work out a deal before he reaches free agency. It’s tough to give up a valuable asset for that small window, though perhaps it would be worth it if you believe he is the difference-maker your team needs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Robert Hagg Signs With Philadelphia Flyers

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After a report surfaced this morning that Shayne Gostisbehere is available for trade, the Philadelphia Flyers have moved to lock up one of their other defensemen. Robert Hagg has signed a new two-year contract that will carry an average annual value of $1.6MM. Hagg was scheduled for restricted free agency next month and was arbitration-eligible. He will now be under contract through the 2021-22 season, after which he will be an unrestricted free agent.

Hagg, 25, was a second-round pick of the Flyers back in 2013 but spent several years in the minor leagues polishing his game. By the time he reached the NHL in 2017, he was a strong, punishing defender that offered a new look for the organization. In fact, over the last three seasons, Hagg has recorded 632 hits, fourth among all NHL defenders and tenth among all skaters. Over the same period, he has blocked 337 shots, a number that puts him only behind Ivan Provorov on the Flyers and still among the league’s best.

No, hits and blocked shots aren’t everything, but with so many other talented puck-moving defensemen in the Flyers system, Hagg’s physical profile fits in well. He offers a different look for opposing teams, while actually taking relatively few minor penalties. At $1.6MM per season, he will still represent an inexpensive option that can be deployed on the third pairing nightly.

For the Flyers, that leaves Philippe Myers and Nolan Patrick as the two biggest restricted free agents left to sign. Justin Braun is also a free agent—though the unrestricted variety—but there are other young options for Philadelphia if they choose to let him walk.

West Notes: Golden Knights, Stars’ Injuries, Coyotes’ Changes, Samberg

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The Vegas Golden Knights seem to be a team that is being mentioned in multiple rumors for many pending unrestricted free agents despite having little to no cap room to speak of. The most recent one has the Golden Knights ready to pounce on St. Louis Blues star defenseman Alex Pietrangelo, who currently isn’t expected to re-sign with St. Louis.

David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal confirms that the Golden Knights are ready to go after the right-shot defenseman, who finished fourth in the Norris Trophy voting this year, assuming he reaches free agency on Oct. 9 and the team will deal with the salary cap juggling after that. Much of the reasoning comes from owner Bill Foley’s will to win and spend to the cap ceiling, while other teams are trying to refrain from that.

Of course, if Pietrangelo does opt to return to St. Louis or chooses another destination, the scribe notes there are other options for the team to upgrade on defense in free agency, including a pair of blueliners who spent time playing for head coach Peter DeBoer in San Jose, Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo.

  • ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski reports that the five Dallas Stars’ players who were “unfit to play” for Game 5 are still unfit as of Sunday. Ben Bishop, Roope Hintz, Radek Faksa, Stephen Johns and Blake Comeau are all expected to miss Game 6 on Monday. A new player to monitor, however, will be defenseman Andrej Sekera, who is considered to be a game-time decision, according to NHL.com’s Mike Heika. Sekera missed half of the first period and all of the second period after blocking a shot during Game 5 Saturday. He did return for the third period, but forced himself to play through the pain.
  • Coyotes beat reporter Craig Morgan reports that the scouting cleanout in Arizona is continuing. The team, who recently fired scouting director Lindsay Hofford and assistant to the GM Jake Goldberg, has removed two more names in the front office. Phil McRae, director of North American Amateur Scouting and Mat Milbury, an amateur scout, are both no longer with the team.
  • Murat Ates of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Winnipeg Jets defensive prospect Dylan Samberg’s ability to make the NHL squad out of training camp next season could be critical to the team’s playoff chances. Samberg, the 6-foot-4 defenseman out of the University of Minnesota-Duluth, is believed to be close to NHL ready, but might need more seasoning in the AHL. However, with just four defenseman under contract and little cap room to maneuver with, the scribe believes that the quicker that Samberg can get acclimated to the NHL pace could be critical for the team. While there is little worry about this defensive game, there are questions on how well his offense will translate over.

Free Agent Focus: Columbus Blue Jackets

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With free agency now just a couple weeks away, teams are looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. While the Columbus Blue Jackets have no UFA’s of note, they still have their work cut out for them with a laundry list of RFA’s, including several core players.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Pierre-Luc Dubois – Getting Dubois, 22, locked up long-term is the core objective of the Blue Jackets’ off-season. Over the three seasons of his entry-level contract, Dubois totaled 158 points in 234 games, including a 61-point campaign in 2018-19 and a 57-point pace this season. He also wrapped up his contract on a high note, recording ten points in ten playoff games this year. For a team that is lacking in center depth and elite scoring talent, Dubois is critical to the short-term and long-term success of the Blue Jackets.

The problem is balancing Dubois’ long-term potential and dollar value with the team’s limited cap space for next season With no unrestricted free agents departing the lineup, the Blue Jackets have limited funds to work with against the flat cap. Yet, they also don’t want to settle for a more affordable short-term contract and risk Dubois continuing to improve and increasing his price on a new contract. Negotiations are already underway and the goal stated by both sides is to stick with a lengthy term and to get the deal done before free agency opens to provide the club with some cap clarity.

If a long-term extension can be reached, don’t be surprised to see an AAV of upwards of $8MM or more. If the two sides instead opt for a short-term deal given the fiscal constraints of the current NHL economy, Dubois is still likely set to make $6.5MM or more against the cap on his next deal.

F Josh Anderson – It’s difficult to know where the status quo lies between the Blue Jackets and Anderson. The last time that these two sides sat down to negotiate a contract, it was a contentious affair that ended in a late-summer, below-market contract that left Anderson unhappy and fueled trade rumors. Those flames were stoked by a 27-goal, 47-point season for Andersson in 2018-19 in which the young power forward greatly outplayed his contract. Yet, the tables turned again this season, as Anderson missed much of the year due to injury and was unproductive even when active. The season tanked Anderson’s trade value and at least some of his bargaining power and left his future with Columbus up in the air.

The latest twist in this saga was Anderson’s recent proclamation that he hopes to sign long-term in Columbus. This runs counter to his previous sentiment, but could end up working in the Blue Jackets’ favor. Given their cap crunch this off-season, the team could benefit from deflating the AAV on an Andersson extension by extending the term. Anderson could also return to form and again be a bargain for the club. The risk of course is that his injury troubles persist or he is unable to rediscover his scoring touch. Given the uncertainty of this off-season and Andersson’s health and performance, this seems like a case that is more likely to be settled in salary arbitration than with a long-term deal. While a one-year arbitrator’s decision might risk Andersson leaving as an unrestricted free agent next summer, the Blue Jackets would likely be happy to get an affordable deal done for Anderson and to have another year to consider whether they want to re-sign or trade the big winger.

D Vladislav Gavrikov – Since joining Columbus in the 2019 playoffs, Gavrikov has done nothing but prove that he is a solid two-way defenseman. While his lack of NHL experience makes it difficult to project his long-term value, Gavrikov has at least earned a raise and some security in his next contract. It’s unclear what the expectations are for Gavrikov’s new deal, but the Blue Jackets have all of the leverage. Due to his limited experience, Gavrikov falls under Section 10.2(c) of the CBA as a restricted free agent who is not eligible to sign an offer sheet. Barring a trade, Columbus is the only NHL team that Gavrikov can play for and they can more or less dictate the terms of the next contract. With that said, Gavrikov has proven to be a reliable top-four defenseman and the Blue Jackets are not going to play games. Expect the team to work out a short-term deal with Gavrikov and potentially trade one of their other seven one-way defensemen to cement his role as a core piece on the blue line.

Other RFAs: F Paul Bittner, F Marko Dano, F Maxime Fortier, F Jakob Lilja, F Ryan MacInnis, F Justin Scott, F Devin Shore, F Kole Sherwood, F Calvin Thurkauf, D Gabriel Carlsson, D Ryan Collins, D Michael Prapavessis, G Matiss Kivlenieks

UFAs: D Dillon Simpson, D Doyle Somerby

Projected Cap Space

CapFriendly lists the Blue Jackets as having 22 of 23 roster spots already filled for next season, including 19 one-way contracts. As a result, it should not be a surprise that their cap space is limited, with CapFriendly projecting just over $7MM to spare. The concern though is that Dubois and Gavrikov – at the very least – will be on the roster and should combine for well over $7MM. And that is not even including any free agent or trade additions for a team that has vowed to be active on the forward market. Fortunately, the team will get a bit of a break in the form of Brandon Dubinsky, who is not healthy enough to play again. Dubinsky’s $5.85MM cap hit will be wiped out, bringing Columbus’ true cap space total to around $13MM. While most of that will still be taken up by RFA signings, it will give the club some more flexibility to change up the roster if they so desire.

Trevor Lewis To Test Free Agency

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Trevor Lewis has been a part of the Kings organization since they drafted him in the first round (17th overall) back in 2006.  However, his time with Los Angeles has come to an end as he told David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period (Twitter link) that he will not be re-signing with them when the free agent period opens up next month.  He briefly commented on his pending departure:

It’s definitely different, a little tough to think about. I grew up here, been here my whole career. It’ll be different, but I’m excited. Change is always good. I’m excited to see what happens.

The 33-year-old has been a versatile veteran throughout his 12-year NHL career, played almost exclusively in a bottom-six role.  However, his offensive production has tapered off considerably as he has managed just a dozen points in each of the last two seasons while battling some injuries along the way.

Nevertheless, as someone that can kill penalties and play all three forward positions, there should be a decent market for his services come October 9th.  However, he’ll likely have to take a pay cut from the $2MM he has made in each of the last four seasons as most contenders – and Pagnotta adds in a separate tweet that Lewis is looking to go to one – won’t have that type of money to commit to someone that is likely best suited to play 10-12 minutes per game on the fourth line.

With 674 regular season games and another 79 in the playoffs, the Kings got a reasonable return out of their selection of Lewis even though he never really managed to develop a consistent offensive game.  However, his time with Los Angeles has come to an end.

Hurricanes Not Expecting Justin Williams To Return

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Last year, it took quite a while for Justin Williams to determine his NHL future.  Instead of signing with Carolina, he took a step back to ponder his future in September before ultimately rejoining the Hurricanes in January.  It appears as if things could be heading down a similar path this offseason as GM Don Waddell told Luke DeCock of the Raleigh News & Observer that they aren’t expecting the veteran to return although they haven’t ruled it out entirely yet either.

The 38-year-old picked up eight goals over his 20 regular season games with Carolina this past season despite playing just 13:37 per night which is strong production for someone that just joined the team midseason after not playing.  Before that, he had four straight years between 48 and 52 points so it’s clear that Williams can still play at the top level.  Instead, the question remains whether or not he wants to.

His agent, Thane Campbell, indicated that a decision won’t be coming before the start of free agency on October 9th and that he expects that it will once again take a while for Williams to figure out what he wants to do.  Considering he was willing to sign a contract for the league minimum (plus $1.3MM in incentives, $500K of which was earned), this is a decision that can be dragged out for a while.  At this point, it seems likely that he’d only rejoin the Hurricanes so as long as they leave themselves a bit of wiggle room in the coming months, they’ll be able to bring Williams back if he wants to return but for now, they’ll plan as if his time with the team has come to an end.

Craig Smith To Test Free Agency

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Craig Smith has spent the past nine seasons in Nashville but it appears as if he’ll be changing teams next month.   His agent Kevin Magnuson told Adam Vingan of The Athletic (subscription link) that the winger will be testing free agency when the market opens up on October 9th and that Smith is seeking a three-year deal.

The 31-year-old has been a part of the Predators organization since they selected him in the fourth round (98th overall) back in 2009.  They’ve certainly had an excellent return on their investment as he has played in 661 games for them which is good for fourth in franchise history while his 330 points are good enough for sixth all-time.

However, his production has tapered off a little bit as of late.  While he managed to get 51 points in 2017-18, it’s the only time in the past five seasons that he has reached 40.  This season, he played in 69 games, tallying 18 goals and 13 assists but perhaps more tellingly, his playing time dropped to just 13:25 per night, the lowest in his career.  His usage dipped a bit further in the playoffs as he logged only 12:49 per game in their four playoff contests while being held off the scoresheet.

Smith had a $4.25MM AAV on his deal for the last five seasons and while his recent production seemingly wouldn’t justify that price tag again in what should be a weakened free agent market, Magnuson seems to think that his client will be able to once again be in that range.

I think the number, because there are eight to 10 teams that have decent cap space, I think we won’t be too far off at the end of the day. He’s not going to be signing any blockbuster deals, but at the same time, he’s going to be in the market or a little bit above it, I think.

Nashville has just over $8MM in cap room at the moment but they have multiple roster spots both up front and on the back end to fill with that money.  If some of those players sign for close to the minimum, they should have enough cap space to re-sign Smith or add another veteran but for the time being at least, they’re not prepared to bring Smith back although Magnuson wouldn’t rule out a reunion once the veteran sees what his other options will be next month.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Montreal Canadiens Extend Jeff Petry

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The Montreal Canadiens have made a huge move just a few weeks before free agency opens, extending Jeff Petry for another four years. Petry was still under contract for the 2020-21 season but will now be locked up through 2024-25. The new deal is worth a total of $25MM, giving him a $6.25MM cap hit starting in 2021-22. It also includes a 15-team no-trade clause and a no-movement clause, meaning he will require automatic protection in the upcoming expansion draft. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet tweets the full breakdown:

  • 2021-22: $5.0MM salary
  • 2022-23: $3.0MM signing bonus + $4.5MM salary
  • 2023-24: $3.0MM signing bonus + $4.5MM salary
  • 2024-25: $2.0MM signing bonus + $3.0MM salary

Though he still doesn’t get quite the recognition of one, Petry has developed into one of the best two-way defensemen in the league over the last few years. In fact, his 128 points over the last three seasons put him 17th among all NHL defenders, while his 36 goals sit 11th over the same time period. Though he’ll never get the same type of press that teammate Shea Weber receives, Petry is almost equally important to the Canadiens and showed it this postseason.

The 32-year-old defenseman averaged more than 25 minutes a night as Montreal shocked the hockey world by defeating the Pittsburgh Penguins in the qualification round and took the Philadelphia Flyers to six games. For a team that wasn’t even expecting to be included in the playoffs, their performance was admirable and as Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets, could have had a real impact on the uber-competitive Petry’s decision to remain.

There’s no doubt that Petry earned an extension with his play, but it’s not like this deal comes without a fair bit of risk for the team. Petry will turn 33 in December (likely before the 2020-21 campaign even begins), meaning this deal takes him deep into his thirties at an expensive cap hit. While his current play is deserving of a raise on the $5.5MM cap hit he currently carries, it’s hard to expect him to continue at that level for the duration of his new contract.

Combine that with the fact that Weber still has six years left on his current contract, which keeps him at a $7.86MM cap hit through 2025-26 and the Canadiens will have quite a bit of space eaten up by two aging defensemen. Of course, there are ways around that, including a revamped cap recapture system should Weber decide to retire before his contract expires. But with a Montreal team that is still looking for an identity upfront, committing so much money to aging defensemen could end up backfiring.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Philadelphia Flyers Sign Alex Lyon

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The Philadelphia Flyers will bring back some of their goaltending depth for another season, signing Alex Lyon to a new one-year contract. The deal is worth $700K and will allow Lyon to avoid unrestricted free agency next month.

There’s no doubt that Carter Hart will be the Flyers starter and workhorse next season, but as we discussed yesterday goaltending depth could have even bigger importance due to the condensed schedule. Lyon, while not exactly pushing for a full-time roster spot in the NHL, does provide solid performance as an organization’s third goaltender. In 145 AHL appearances, the undrafted free agent signing has recorded a .913 save percentage and 2.73 goals-against average.

One thing to always remember with Lyon is that he is no longer waiver-exempt, meaning that in order to be stashed in the minor leagues he’ll have to pass through unclaimed. While he’s done it before, an injury at the wrong time to the wrong team could mean a desperate grab for an available netminder like Lyon.

There is also still some uncertainty over who will serve as backup for Hart in the NHL next season. Brian Elliott is scheduled for unrestricted free agency and is now 35, while the team’s other young prospects are likely not yet ready for duty in the big leagues. If they don’t sign another goalie over the next few months, Lyon could potentially have a pathway to that spot.

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