Free Agent Focus: Dallas Stars
With free agency now just a couple weeks away, teams are looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Fresh off of a heart-breaking loss in the Stanley Cup Final, the Dallas Stars will have to evaluate the cost of bringing back the veteran UFA’s that contributed to their playoff run while also maintaining enough space to extend several core RFA forwards.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Roope Hintz – Hintz came out strong as a rookie in 2018-19 with 22 points in 58 games only to top that this year with 19 goals and 33 points in 60 games. The 23-year-old is still trending upward and projects to be a core piece for a long time for the Stars. Coming off of his entry-level contract, Hintz is in for a major raise, especially on a long-term deal. And with so many of their top forwards on the wrong side of 30, Dallas will likely aim for a lengthy deal to make sure Hintz is around to help take over.
F Denis Gurianov – Gurianov is part of that next wave of core forwards in Dallas as well. The 2015 first-round pick took some time to arrive on the NHL stage, but in his first full season with the Stars this season shook off any doubts about his potential. With a team-leading 20 goals and 29 points in 64 games, backed up by 17 points in 27 playoff games, Gurianov proved himself to be a dangerous scoring threat. With his entry-level contract expiring, Gurianov is in for a payday, perhaps even more so than Hintz, due to the possibility that he could be Dallas’ top goal-scorer for years to come.
F Radek Faksa – Faksa’s future with the Stars may be a bit more uncertain than his fellow RFA forwards. The 26-year-old center, who is owed at least a $2.2MM qualifying offer, declined this season and his role moving forward in Dallas is unclear. Faksa snapped a three-year streak of 30+ points with just 20 on the year, his lowest per-game rate since his rookie season. He also finished outside the top nine scoring forwards for the Stars and saw his ice time slashed as a result. A good two-way player, Faksa is best suited for a bottom-six role but Dallas may question how much that role is worth to them. Faksa could sign a short-term deal, especially given the current flat cap conundrum, with the chance to prove himself worthy of an extension before he reaches unrestricted free agency.
Other RFAs: F Tony Calderone, F Joel L’Esperance, F Josh Melnick, G Landon Bow
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
G Anton Khudobin – Has Khudobin priced himself out of Dallas? After outplaying Ben Bishop this season and then taking over for the injured starter in the playoffs and marching the team to the Stanley Cup Final, Khudobin’s stock has never been higher. Which is saying a lot about a player who has been considered one of the top backups in the league for many years. With so many teams looking for a shake-up in net this off-season, including several teams with young netminders who would love a reliable veteran to share starts, Khudobin should draw a ton of interest on the open market. With a solid starter in Bishop and a promising young option in Jake Oettinger pushing for opportunities, will the Stars keep up with the top bidders to retain Khudobin? It seems unlikely.
F Corey Perry – Perry is another player whose stock soared this postseason. A former superstar now past his prime, Perry was still clutch in the playoffs and showed over the course of the whole year that he can still be an effective player. An intense physical presence and a smart offensive mind, Perry can still make a difference even if his 21 points this season is more reflective of his new ceiling. In fact, while Perry may be limited to another one-year deal this off-season, he might be able to command more than his $1.5MM “show me” salary from this season. As the price goes up on the open market, it becomes less likely that Perry returns to Dallas. However, if he’s seeking consistency in his older age, Dallas was a good fit and a return makes sense.
D Andrej Sekera – Dallas has everything you could want in a defense corps: high-end talent, depth, size, experience in the minors, and budding young prospects. However, sometimes a respected veteran and leader is the finishing touch that a contender needs. Sekera is not the player he once was -not really even close – but was a great fit on the bottom pair in Dallas. Sekera can still play meaningful minutes, provides solid defense, blocks shots, and can contribute on offense from time to time. An experienced asset who can help bring along the Stars’ young defenders while playing a reliable role, Sekera fits well in Dallas and should return on another minimal deal as long as he wants to keep playing.
Other UFAs: F Mattias Janmark, F Michael Mersch, F Oula Palve, D Gavin Bayreuther, D Dillon Heatherington
Projected Cap Space
CapFriendly projects the Stars to have about $15.5MM in current cap space. However, that projection includes two-way players whose roster spots are not necessarily secure, such as forward Justin Dowling and defensemen Taylor Fedun and Ryan Shea. It also seems likely that forward Joel Kiviranta and defenseman Joel Hanley have earned roster spots next season with strong playoff performances, but are not included in the current projection. All things considered, the Stars should have at least $16.2MM in flexible cap space heading into the off-season. This will be plenty to extend Faksa, Hintz, and Gurianov while leaving room to explore the free agent market.
Trade Rumors: Ekman-Larsson, Mrazek, Virtanen, Tampa Bay
Name a top trade target or impending free agent and they seem to be linked to the Edmonton Oilers. While the team clearly needs to help superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, they have cap constraints because of those players as well and holes to fill all over the roster. The team must be confident that they can perform some cap magic, as they have their sights set on making a big splash this off-season. TSN’s Darren Dreger backed up previous rumors today that the Oilers have been talking to the Arizona Coyotes about elite defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson. In fact, Dreger notes that discussions have been preliminary, but the interest is serious. It’s a complex situation given the cap situations in both Edmonton and Arizona, but the teams appear to be working through their options when it comes to moving Ekman-Larsson, a proven top-pair commodity. Of course, it’s worth noting that Ekman-Larsson has a full No-Movement Clause and could nix a deal to Edmonton if he chooses. Dreger adds that the Boston Bruins also remain interested; Ekman-Larsson may very well prefer landing alongside Charlie McAvoy on the top pair of a perennial contender.
- The Oilers are also known to be eyeing an addition in goal and have kicked the tires on a number of netminders on the trade block. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the latest name on that list is the Carolina Hurricanes’ Petr Mrazek. LeBrun believes that Mrazek could be more of a fallback option if Edmonton cannot add Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray or Arizona’s Darcy Kuemper or can’t woo Jacob Markstrom in free agency. Of course, if Mrazek is even available for trade, it may mean that Carolina has already landed one of those three Oilers targets for themselves. Mrazek had a fine season for the ‘Canes, but the team is looking to upgrade at starter. Unfortunately for Edmonton, Carolina’s castoff would still be an upgrade for them.
- From GM Jim Benning‘s comments since his Vancouver Canucks were eliminated from the postseason, it should come as no surprise that he is listening to offers for restricted free agent forward Jake Virtanen, according to Dreger. Virtanen has failed to live up to the expectations of being the 2014 sixth overall pick, but is still due a significant upgrade over his expiring $1.25MM AAV. The cap-strapped Canucks have greater needs than Virtanen’s third-line scoring totals and may be able to put his cap space to greater use via trade. Dreger reports that there is plenty of interest in the 24-year-old power forward, who could still grow into the dangerous scorer that he was in junior.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning are less than a day removed from taking home the 2020 Stanley Cup title, but GM Julien BriseBois is already back at work. LeBrun speculates that Tampa must clear at least $10MM in cap space in order to re-sign RFA’s Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev, and Erik Cernak and to rebuild a defense with numerous pending UFA’s. As such, BriseBois can’t afford to waste any time with free agency approaching. LeBrun notes that the two most talked-about names on the Lightning roster right now are forwards Tyler Johnson and Yanni Gourde. However, he notes that both players have full No-Trade Clauses and would have to accept any trade. As a result, LeBrun believes there is a growing suspicion that the Bolts may trade a player or two that no one is suspecting in order to clear cap space. That could mean one of the RFA’s themselves is dealt, or perhaps it could be a player lacking trade protection, such as Brayden Point or Andrei Vasilevskiy. One way or another, the Cup-winning roster will look very different next season.
Snapshots: Ryan, Soucy, USHL
The Ottawa Senators bought out Bobby Ryan over the weekend, but that doesn’t mean his playing career is over. Interest has already started to emerge, with Kevin Kurz of The Athletic tweeting that the San Jose Sharks are one of “many teams” that have checked in on the free agent winger.
Ryan, 33, will be making more than $1.8MM in each of the next four years regardless of what his next contract is, meaning he may be willing to take a cheap deal to get back on the ice with a new organization.
- The Minnesota Wild are still negotiating with Carson Soucy according to Michael Russo of The Athletic, one of their pending unrestricted free agents. Russo reports they are also speaking with Kyle Rau and Matt Bartkowski, and will be signing Hunter Warner to an AHL deal instead of issuing him a qualifying offer. With the Stanley Cup now awarded, front offices will be in overdrive trying to get new deals in place before free agency opens on October 9.
- The USHL has released its schedule for the 2020-21 season, expected to start on November 5. Each team will be scheduled for 54 games over the 24-week season, which ends on April 24. The junior league is an important development step for many prospects and will try to navigate the season with a regional schedule.
Senators Notes: Draft Picks, Nilsson, Free Agency
Are the Ottawa Senators ready to take the next step in their rebuild and begin trading futures to add help in the present? The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch writes that Senators GM Pierre Dorion is listening to all offers for his numerous draft picks. The Senators own a whopping 13 picks in the 2020 NHL Draft, including three first-round picks and four second-round picks. In a draft class that is considered especially deep, there is a lot of value in those early picks. While No. 3 and No. 5 overall are certainly safe, No. 28 overall and any of the second-rounders could be in play. Dorion is not going to move all five of those picks, but could easily move one or two to bring in immediate help to his roster. Considering that this off-season will also see many teams looking to cut salary, the Senators could land a very good player (or two) by moving their high picks to a team that has no choice but to sacrifice the present and in Ottawa finds the opportunity to invest in the future.
- Among the pressing roster needs that Dorion could address by dealing a pick is an addition in goal. Garrioch notes that there are concerns around the organization about presumptive starter Anders Nilsson, who has not skated since February as he deals with concussion repercussions. While Dorion is “confident” that Nilsson will be ready for the start of the season, there may still be an impact on his play. If he falters, the team does not have any NHL-proven options behind him, with youngsters Marcus Hogberg, Filip Gustavsson, Joey Daccord, and Kevin Mandolese making up their pro depth. As a result, the team may be forced to add a goalie to serve as a short-term fix. If they don’t want to fill that need on the trade market, there are also plenty of options on the free agent market.
- A draft day trade and acquiring a goalie would be significant additions by the Senators, but they will be far from done after those moves are made. Ottawa has just eight players signed to one-way contracts for next season with maybe five or six entry-level players who will likely be on the season-opening roster. That leaves plenty of work for Dorion and company to do to fill out the roster. The team has a laundry list of restricted free agents to sign, up to nine of whom will be or at least could be on the NHL roster. Even if all of that adds up to a 23-man roster, the team also has to be wary of the $60.2MM, which they currently fall $22M under. The Senators will likely need to explore the trade and free agent markets for a few more additions before they can call their off-season complete.
Latest On Torey Krug’s Pending Free Agency
It was always going to be difficult for the Boston Bruins to re-sign Torey Krug because of their salary cap situation, but that hasn’t stopped them from trying. Frank Seravalli of TSN reports that the team’s last offer to Krug was a six-year, $39MM contract ($6.5MM AAV). Since that may not be enough to ink the offensive defenseman, Seravalli also notes that there has been “significant interest” from teams hoping to trade for Krug’s rights before the free agent period opens next month.
The 29-year-old defenseman is one of the top free agents set to hit the open market on October 9th, perhaps even second behind Alex Pietrangelo among defenders. There are very few players who can match his offensive output, which totaled 49 points in 61 games this season with the Bruins. In fact, over the last four seasons, Krug trails only Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman, John Carlson, and Roman Josi in scoring among defensemen, five players who are consistently in the Norris Trophy race. He’s well ahead of Pietrangelo in that category, though the rest of his game is not nearly as polished.
For a team looking to improve their powerplay though, there may be no better option available. Krug trails only Brent Burns in powerplay scoring among defenseman over the last four years, a total developed through consistent performance instead of breakout seasons. The Bruins quarterback has at least 39 points in each of his seven NHL seasons and has performed even more exceptional in the postseason. Through his first 75 playoff contests, Krug has 52 points
The Bruins, with Jake Debrusk and Matt Grzelcyk still to sign as restricted free agents, aren’t swimming in cap space. The team currently sits with just over $14.4MM for the 2020-21 season, but need to consider the future when discussing a long-term deal with Krug. Charlie McAvoy will be looking at a huge raise when his current deal expires in 2022, while Brandon Carlo is up after this upcoming season. There are plenty of other question marks around the roster given the expiring deals of Tuukka Rask, Jaroslav Halak and David Krejci, though that could potentially provide an opportunity to invest in younger talent instead.
Should a team trade for Krug’s rights, they would have less than two weeks to work out a deal before he reaches free agency. It’s tough to give up a valuable asset for that small window, though perhaps it would be worth it if you believe he is the difference-maker your team needs.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Robert Hagg Signs With Philadelphia Flyers
After a report surfaced this morning that Shayne Gostisbehere is available for trade, the Philadelphia Flyers have moved to lock up one of their other defensemen. Robert Hagg has signed a new two-year contract that will carry an average annual value of $1.6MM. Hagg was scheduled for restricted free agency next month and was arbitration-eligible. He will now be under contract through the 2021-22 season, after which he will be an unrestricted free agent.
Hagg, 25, was a second-round pick of the Flyers back in 2013 but spent several years in the minor leagues polishing his game. By the time he reached the NHL in 2017, he was a strong, punishing defender that offered a new look for the organization. In fact, over the last three seasons, Hagg has recorded 632 hits, fourth among all NHL defenders and tenth among all skaters. Over the same period, he has blocked 337 shots, a number that puts him only behind Ivan Provorov on the Flyers and still among the league’s best.
No, hits and blocked shots aren’t everything, but with so many other talented puck-moving defensemen in the Flyers system, Hagg’s physical profile fits in well. He offers a different look for opposing teams, while actually taking relatively few minor penalties. At $1.6MM per season, he will still represent an inexpensive option that can be deployed on the third pairing nightly.
For the Flyers, that leaves Philippe Myers and Nolan Patrick as the two biggest restricted free agents left to sign. Justin Braun is also a free agent—though the unrestricted variety—but there are other young options for Philadelphia if they choose to let him walk.
West Notes: Golden Knights, Stars’ Injuries, Coyotes’ Changes, Samberg
The Vegas Golden Knights seem to be a team that is being mentioned in multiple rumors for many pending unrestricted free agents despite having little to no cap room to speak of. The most recent one has the Golden Knights ready to pounce on St. Louis Blues star defenseman Alex Pietrangelo, who currently isn’t expected to re-sign with St. Louis.
David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal confirms that the Golden Knights are ready to go after the right-shot defenseman, who finished fourth in the Norris Trophy voting this year, assuming he reaches free agency on Oct. 9 and the team will deal with the salary cap juggling after that. Much of the reasoning comes from owner Bill Foley‘s will to win and spend to the cap ceiling, while other teams are trying to refrain from that.
Of course, if Pietrangelo does opt to return to St. Louis or chooses another destination, the scribe notes there are other options for the team to upgrade on defense in free agency, including a pair of blueliners who spent time playing for head coach Peter DeBoer in San Jose, Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo.
- ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski reports that the five Dallas Stars’ players who were “unfit to play” for Game 5 are still unfit as of Sunday. Ben Bishop, Roope Hintz, Radek Faksa, Stephen Johns and Blake Comeau are all expected to miss Game 6 on Monday. A new player to monitor, however, will be defenseman Andrej Sekera, who is considered to be a game-time decision, according to NHL.com’s Mike Heika. Sekera missed half of the first period and all of the second period after blocking a shot during Game 5 Saturday. He did return for the third period, but forced himself to play through the pain.
- Coyotes beat reporter Craig Morgan reports that the scouting cleanout in Arizona is continuing. The team, who recently fired scouting director Lindsay Hofford and assistant to the GM Jake Goldberg, has removed two more names in the front office. Phil McRae, director of North American Amateur Scouting and Mat Milbury, an amateur scout, are both no longer with the team.
- Murat Ates of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Winnipeg Jets defensive prospect Dylan Samberg‘s ability to make the NHL squad out of training camp next season could be critical to the team’s playoff chances. Samberg, the 6-foot-4 defenseman out of the University of Minnesota-Duluth, is believed to be close to NHL ready, but might need more seasoning in the AHL. However, with just four defenseman under contract and little cap room to maneuver with, the scribe believes that the quicker that Samberg can get acclimated to the NHL pace could be critical for the team. While there is little worry about this defensive game, there are questions on how well his offense will translate over.
Free Agent Focus: Columbus Blue Jackets
With free agency now just a couple weeks away, teams are looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. While the Columbus Blue Jackets have no UFA’s of note, they still have their work cut out for them with a laundry list of RFA’s, including several core players.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Pierre-Luc Dubois – Getting Dubois, 22, locked up long-term is the core objective of the Blue Jackets’ off-season. Over the three seasons of his entry-level contract, Dubois totaled 158 points in 234 games, including a 61-point campaign in 2018-19 and a 57-point pace this season. He also wrapped up his contract on a high note, recording ten points in ten playoff games this year. For a team that is lacking in center depth and elite scoring talent, Dubois is critical to the short-term and long-term success of the Blue Jackets.
The problem is balancing Dubois’ long-term potential and dollar value with the team’s limited cap space for next season With no unrestricted free agents departing the lineup, the Blue Jackets have limited funds to work with against the flat cap. Yet, they also don’t want to settle for a more affordable short-term contract and risk Dubois continuing to improve and increasing his price on a new contract. Negotiations are already underway and the goal stated by both sides is to stick with a lengthy term and to get the deal done before free agency opens to provide the club with some cap clarity.
If a long-term extension can be reached, don’t be surprised to see an AAV of upwards of $8MM or more. If the two sides instead opt for a short-term deal given the fiscal constraints of the current NHL economy, Dubois is still likely set to make $6.5MM or more against the cap on his next deal.
F Josh Anderson – It’s difficult to know where the status quo lies between the Blue Jackets and Anderson. The last time that these two sides sat down to negotiate a contract, it was a contentious affair that ended in a late-summer, below-market contract that left Anderson unhappy and fueled trade rumors. Those flames were stoked by a 27-goal, 47-point season for Andersson in 2018-19 in which the young power forward greatly outplayed his contract. Yet, the tables turned again this season, as Anderson missed much of the year due to injury and was unproductive even when active. The season tanked Anderson’s trade value and at least some of his bargaining power and left his future with Columbus up in the air.
The latest twist in this saga was Anderson’s recent proclamation that he hopes to sign long-term in Columbus. This runs counter to his previous sentiment, but could end up working in the Blue Jackets’ favor. Given their cap crunch this off-season, the team could benefit from deflating the AAV on an Andersson extension by extending the term. Anderson could also return to form and again be a bargain for the club. The risk of course is that his injury troubles persist or he is unable to rediscover his scoring touch. Given the uncertainty of this off-season and Andersson’s health and performance, this seems like a case that is more likely to be settled in salary arbitration than with a long-term deal. While a one-year arbitrator’s decision might risk Andersson leaving as an unrestricted free agent next summer, the Blue Jackets would likely be happy to get an affordable deal done for Anderson and to have another year to consider whether they want to re-sign or trade the big winger.
D Vladislav Gavrikov – Since joining Columbus in the 2019 playoffs, Gavrikov has done nothing but prove that he is a solid two-way defenseman. While his lack of NHL experience makes it difficult to project his long-term value, Gavrikov has at least earned a raise and some security in his next contract. It’s unclear what the expectations are for Gavrikov’s new deal, but the Blue Jackets have all of the leverage. Due to his limited experience, Gavrikov falls under Section 10.2(c) of the CBA as a restricted free agent who is not eligible to sign an offer sheet. Barring a trade, Columbus is the only NHL team that Gavrikov can play for and they can more or less dictate the terms of the next contract. With that said, Gavrikov has proven to be a reliable top-four defenseman and the Blue Jackets are not going to play games. Expect the team to work out a short-term deal with Gavrikov and potentially trade one of their other seven one-way defensemen to cement his role as a core piece on the blue line.
Other RFAs: F Paul Bittner, F Marko Dano, F Maxime Fortier, F Jakob Lilja, F Ryan MacInnis, F Justin Scott, F Devin Shore, F Kole Sherwood, F Calvin Thurkauf, D Gabriel Carlsson, D Ryan Collins, D Michael Prapavessis, G Matiss Kivlenieks
UFAs: D Dillon Simpson, D Doyle Somerby
Projected Cap Space
CapFriendly lists the Blue Jackets as having 22 of 23 roster spots already filled for next season, including 19 one-way contracts. As a result, it should not be a surprise that their cap space is limited, with CapFriendly projecting just over $7MM to spare. The concern though is that Dubois and Gavrikov – at the very least – will be on the roster and should combine for well over $7MM. And that is not even including any free agent or trade additions for a team that has vowed to be active on the forward market. Fortunately, the team will get a bit of a break in the form of Brandon Dubinsky, who is not healthy enough to play again. Dubinsky’s $5.85MM cap hit will be wiped out, bringing Columbus’ true cap space total to around $13MM. While most of that will still be taken up by RFA signings, it will give the club some more flexibility to change up the roster if they so desire.
Trevor Lewis To Test Free Agency
Trevor Lewis has been a part of the Kings organization since they drafted him in the first round (17th overall) back in 2006. However, his time with Los Angeles has come to an end as he told David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period (Twitter link) that he will not be re-signing with them when the free agent period opens up next month. He briefly commented on his pending departure:
It’s definitely different, a little tough to think about. I grew up here, been here my whole career. It’ll be different, but I’m excited. Change is always good. I’m excited to see what happens.
The 33-year-old has been a versatile veteran throughout his 12-year NHL career, played almost exclusively in a bottom-six role. However, his offensive production has tapered off considerably as he has managed just a dozen points in each of the last two seasons while battling some injuries along the way.
Nevertheless, as someone that can kill penalties and play all three forward positions, there should be a decent market for his services come October 9th. However, he’ll likely have to take a pay cut from the $2MM he has made in each of the last four seasons as most contenders – and Pagnotta adds in a separate tweet that Lewis is looking to go to one – won’t have that type of money to commit to someone that is likely best suited to play 10-12 minutes per game on the fourth line.
With 674 regular season games and another 79 in the playoffs, the Kings got a reasonable return out of their selection of Lewis even though he never really managed to develop a consistent offensive game. However, his time with Los Angeles has come to an end.
Hurricanes Not Expecting Justin Williams To Return
Last year, it took quite a while for Justin Williams to determine his NHL future. Instead of signing with Carolina, he took a step back to ponder his future in September before ultimately rejoining the Hurricanes in January. It appears as if things could be heading down a similar path this offseason as GM Don Waddell told Luke DeCock of the Raleigh News & Observer that they aren’t expecting the veteran to return although they haven’t ruled it out entirely yet either.
The 38-year-old picked up eight goals over his 20 regular season games with Carolina this past season despite playing just 13:37 per night which is strong production for someone that just joined the team midseason after not playing. Before that, he had four straight years between 48 and 52 points so it’s clear that Williams can still play at the top level. Instead, the question remains whether or not he wants to.
His agent, Thane Campbell, indicated that a decision won’t be coming before the start of free agency on October 9th and that he expects that it will once again take a while for Williams to figure out what he wants to do. Considering he was willing to sign a contract for the league minimum (plus $1.3MM in incentives, $500K of which was earned), this is a decision that can be dragged out for a while. At this point, it seems likely that he’d only rejoin the Hurricanes so as long as they leave themselves a bit of wiggle room in the coming months, they’ll be able to bring Williams back if he wants to return but for now, they’ll plan as if his time with the team has come to an end.