Free Agent Profile: Evan Rodrigues
As he was enjoying a breakout season at the age of 28, many believed Pittsburgh Penguins forward Evan Rodrigues had put himself in perfect position to hit the open market this summer. A center who was good in his own end, Rodrigues finally found offensive success making him a true two-way forward and a perfect fit in almost any team’s middle-six. Given the Penguins cap situation and needing to re-sign Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Rickard Rakell, it appeared that Rodrigues would be too rich of an asset to remain with the club and could move on with a payday elsewhere. However, more than two weeks after the start of free agency, Rodrigues remains unsigned, with very little buzz around his name. After a season with 19 goals and 24 assists, shattering previous bests, it’s interesting to find Rodrigues still without any bites, at least that we are aware of.
Prior to this season, Rodrigues’ previous career best in points had been 25, which had come in 48 games with the Buffalo Sabres in 2017-18, a similar points-per-game pace to this season. That season was the forward’s first of a two-year contract that carried a $650K AAV. In 2018-19, Rodrigues took a step back, hitting what was then a career-high 29 points, but doing so in 74 games. An RFA, Rodrigues was awarded a $2MM salary via arbitration for the 2019-20 season. After that summer of 2019 arbitration award, Rodrigues struggled to rebound, recording just 24 points in 80 games between the Buffalo Sabres and Pittsburgh Penguins over the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. This year, however, Rodrigues was able to show he is capable of being the player he was in 2017-18 with his 43-point breakout performance.
So, the question remains: what is holding Rodrigues’ market back? Of course, he’s not exactly teammate Sidney Crosby, but he has shown he has plenty to offer. One concern would be that, over six seasons with regular NHL games played, the veteran has only ever matched his 2021-22 production once, back in that 2017-18 season. Another concern is consistency. Looking closer at this season, Rodrigues was a borderline All-Star-caliber player, recording 32 of his 43 points in just 46 games prior to the All Star break. A dominant first-half indeed, he regressed to only 11 points in 36 games after the break.
Rodrigues’ pros and cons provide a basis for a negotiation, but still don’t get to the answer of why he’s still on the market? The answer may lie in the fact that Rodrigues recently turned 29 years of age and is coming off of his best season to date. He could very well view this as his best chance to secure a contract with very attractive term and salary, and is not willing to settle on either front. From a front office perspective, Rodrigues has shown flashes of being a 40-point, or maybe even 50-point player, but absent certain stellar stretches, he’s mostly been a 25-30 point player. Given the cap crunch all 32 teams are facing and having potentially found more statistically consistent players on the free agent and trade markets already, teams are weary of giving Rodrigues what he’d want (term and salary) without knowing which kind of player he really is.
Stats:
2021-22: 82 GP, 19-24-43, +3 rating, 14 PIMs, 243 shots, 59.8 CF%, 15:50 ATOI
Career: 316 GP, 53-76-159, -30 rating, 77 PIMs, 701 shots, 53.7 CF%, 14:24 ATOI
Potential Suitors:
Even if the market is slow and he doesn’t wind up with the contract he was hoping for, Rodrigues shouldn’t have an issue actually finding a suitor when he and teams are ready. The player Rodrigues was in the first half of this year was intriguing, but the player he has been for a majority of his career, that of a reliable two-way, bottom-six center that could give flashes of offense is always in demand, from Cup contenders to middle of the pack teams to rebuilders.
What exactly the veteran’s contract expectations are and how much, if at all, he is willing to compromise, will dictate what teams are able to be in the market for him. His poise and ability to play for a perennial contender like the Penguins, alongside the likes of Crosby, Malkin, and Letang stands to show that Rodrigues can handle the bright lights and the pressure that playoff and playoff-implicating games bring. Competitive teams who could use another forward for their middle or bottom-six, such as the Edmonton Oilers, New York Rangers, or even a reunion with the Penguins, make sense, but these teams are all close to, if not over, the salary cap.
Teams that are trying to get over or away from the salary cap floor, like the Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, and Chicago Blackhawks, could be options for Rodrigues, all of whom not only can pay, but may want to pay for their own reasons. Maybe not some of the most attractive options, they could give Rodrigues an expanded role, valuing his leadership and providing more opportunities to repeat his offensive production. The Minnesota Wild, New York Islanders, and Calgary Flames, who could use another secondary-scoring option and have the cap space to make a solid offer along with an opportunity to be competitive may also be very strong options for Rodrigues, who could have the best of both worlds in terms of contract and competitiveness in those destinations.
Projected Contract:
Rodrigues came in 24th on our Top 50 UFAs list in early July. There, we projected a three-year, $3MM AAV contract with the Minnesota Wild. The Wild could very well be in the mix for Rodrigues, but at this point, it’s unlikely the forward will find the contract we had projected for him with a competitive team like the Wild, Islanders, Flames, Oilers, Rangers, or Penguins, all of whom are mentioned above. But, if a contract along those lines is a sticking point, it might not be out of the realm of possibility that a team like the Ducks, Coyotes, or Blackhawks could make the offer, betting on Rodrigues’ production and his value as an asset down the road. Ultimately, given his career track record, it’s still unlikely at this point in time that the 29-year-old is headed towards a PTO in training camp, even if it does mean taking what might be seen as an underwhelming offer.
Latest On P.K. Subban’s Free Agency
More than two weeks into free agency, one player that hasn’t received a lot of coverage is veteran defenseman P.K. Subban. The 33-year-old’s eight-year, $72MM contract expired earlier this month, allowing him to hit the open market for the first time but he hasn’t really been linked to teams at this point.
However, his agent Don Meehan of Newport, told Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette that while the rumor mill has been quiet for his client, it hasn’t been for a lack of interest and that he, like quite a few other free agents, are waiting for the financial picture for certain teams to get cleared up:
P.K. just came back from vacation and I talked to him today about the free-agency marketplace and I’ve indicated to him that we’ve had expressions of interest. I’ve told him that there are teams moving money — assessing what kind of cap space they have, analyzing their depth scenarios to determine just exactly what they can do. Some of these issues are in play as we speak, so I can’t get a definitive response from some teams in terms of moving ahead, but I have had expressions of interest for him to date. But the teams that have expressed interest aren’t in a position to contract now because they’ve got other things in play.
Subban has seen his production dip considerably over the past three seasons compared to his time with Montreal and Nashville and is coming off a 22-point campaign with the Devils in 77 games. Notably, his average playing time dipped under 20 minutes a night for the first time in his career as he averaged 18:18 which put him fifth among New Jersey’s blueliners. That was a drop of more than four minutes a game compared to 2020-21, hardly ideal for someone heading into free agency. A year ago, Subban had a case that he could still be a top-four defender but it will be harder for his camp to make that argument now.
Meehan also indicated that Subban is particularly focused on finding the right fit:
Without sounding too aggressive, I think he’s earned the privilege to be somewhat selective in terms of where he would play so that it works for the team and it works for him. In other words, he doesn’t just want to play anywhere. He has that measure of independence.
While Subban isn’t at the level he was back when he was in his prime as a three-time Norris finalist, he could still help teams in more of a limited role while it also helps that he and Anton Stralman basically represent all that’s left of right-shot defenders that are available on the open market. But with it proving more difficult than before for teams to free up salary cap space, Subban’s search for the right fit could drag on a little longer yet.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Minnesota Wild Still Looking To Add A Forward
The Minnesota Wild currently have ten forwards signed to one-way contracts for the upcoming season, plus Matthew Boldy who is a lock to make the opening day roster. Marco Rossi is another young player with big expectations but the team is also looking to add to their group at some point this offseason. Michael Russo of The Athletic tweets that general manager Bill Guerin is still working the trade market but, if nothing can be accomplished there, would look to sign a forward in free agency.
Despite their challenging cap situation, which has more than $12.7MM tied up in buyout penalties from Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, the Wild do actually have a fair bit of room to add, should they choose to use it. The team currently sits at about $78.1MM with a projected 20-man roster, meaning they don’t have to just look at league-minimum depth options.
Even if a star free agent like Nazem Kadri is off the table, there are a number of other talented players still on the market. The likes of Paul Stastny, Evan Rodrigues, Sonny Milano, Phil Kessel, Jonathan Dahlen, Johan Larsson, Tyler Motte, and others are still theoretically available, offering various skillsets and upside.
It’s not just the Wild who could benefit from some of these names. The free agent market has cooled significantly over the last week, and it is unclear how much players still left would be able to command. If they are looking for short-term deals at this point to try their hands again in a year, cap-strapped clubs could be able to take advantage.
Guerin has also shown he’s not scared of making a big splash through trade. Already this offseason he has sent Kevin Fiala and Cam Talbot elsewhere, restocking his prospect pool in the process by bringing back Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, and a first-round pick that turned into Liam Ohgren. While Minnesota might be facing some difficult cap restraints over the next three seasons, they still look like a relatively competitive group, especially if a player like Rossi can step into some of the vacated offensive minutes that Fiala took advantage of.
Adding a forward at this point would only strengthen the overall depth of the group.
Carolina Hurricanes Re-Sign Ethan Bear
July 28: The Hurricanes have officially announced the contract for Bear, confirming the details reported yesterday. General manager Don Waddell released a statement on the deal, though it will raise even more eyebrows:
Adjusting to a new team and system can be challenging for a young defenseman. We are confident Ethan will be able to take another step in his development this season.
July 27: PuckPedia reports that the Carolina Hurricanes re-signed restricted free agent defenseman Ethan Bear to a one-year, $2.2MM deal. The contract will make Bear a restricted free agent again next offseason with one more season remaining on his RFA eligibility.
Carolina acquired Bear last season in a one-for-one swap with the Edmonton Oilers for forward Warren Foegele. Bear’s first season in Carolina wasn’t too kind to him, though, as his defensive play took a serious step back while seeing a reduction in his role. His 16:05 per-game average is a far cry from his 21:58 mark in 2019-20 with the Oilers. On the scoresheet, he tied his career-high in goals with five and added nine assists for 14 points in 58 games.
If Bear is able to rebound back to his form from his first two full seasons in Edmonton, though, it’s a great deal for the ‘Canes. Bear will still be battling for ice time on the team’s third pairing along with new acquisition Dylan Coghlan and a healthy Jake Gardiner — if Carolina doesn’t opt to trade him. $2.2MM might be too steep a price to pay for someone the organization views as a seventh defenseman, but it’s a gamble to trade him away and watch him bounce back elsewhere.
After the signing, the Hurricanes are left with under $2MM in cap space.
John Klingberg Changes Representation
August is just around the corner and the top defenseman on the free agent market still hasn’t signed. John Klingberg was ranked fifth on our Top 50 UFA list two weeks ago but he sits without a contract or a team for 2022-23. Now, likely due to frustration from how things have played out, Klingberg is changing representation. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reports that Klingberg has parted ways with agent Peter Wallen and will now be represented by Newport Sports Management. PuckPedia adds that Craig Oster, one of the sport’s most influential agents, will take the lead for the free agent defenseman.
Oster has recently been responsible for several long-term extensions, including Matthew Tkachuk, Robert Thomas, Joshua Norris, and Kevin Fiala, and has other high-priced clients like Brady Tkachuk, Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone, and Tomas Hertl. In fact, his roster compares favorably to just about every other agent in the business and is a logical step for someone looking to score a big free agent contract.
Klingberg, 29, has been reportedly looking for a massive extension for months now, leading to frustration and trade speculation throughout the season. Renaud Lavoie of TVA sports tweets that at the start of free agency, the former Dallas Stars defenseman was looking for a seven-year deal with an average annual value of around $6MM. Landing something like that at this point in the summer might be tough but not impossible, as several teams still have the capacity to add that kind of salary.
Still, with Klingberg set to turn 30 in a few weeks and his game still carrying some of the defensive warts it always has, committing that kind of money to him would be a tough decision for any team. While his offensive production is still excellent–he registered 47 points in 74 games this season–a commitment of that length would carry substantial risk for teams looking to contend.
It remains to be seen whether this change will lead to a quick resolution, or if Klingberg will need to wait even longer to find out where he’s playing next season. At any rate, he has one of the biggest agencies in the business behind him now.
Latest On Jonathan Toews
It wasn’t too many years ago that Jonathan Toews and his Chicago Blackhawks were at the top of the league’s pecking order, but it somehow also seems like the team’s rebuild has dragged on for too long with no end in sight. It’s an arduous process that’s called Toews’ (and Patrick Kane‘s) future with the team into question, as the Blackhawks legends are just one year away from the expiration of their contracts and unrestricted free agency. Speaking with The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus, Toews says he “really doesn’t know” what the future holds for him and said the idea of a lengthy rebuild “[didn’t] sound appealing.”
In his interview, Toews spoke frankly about Chicago’s moves since the turn of the calendar year, specifically referencing the team’s trades involving Brandon Hagel, Alex DeBrincat, and Kirby Dach. Calling it “unfortunate that it’s come to that,” Toews especially named Dach as a player he felt he had under his wing and had developed a good mentor relationship with.
On a more positive note for Toews and Blackhawks fans, he spoke highly of the team’s expected approach under new head coach Luke Richardson. If he isn’t approached about a trade prior to the season (he does still have a full no-movement clause), he said he’s “really excited” to play under Richardson and his hard-working approach.
Regardless, this is a significant crossroads for Toews and the Blackhawks organization. Considering his declining production and recent health issues, it could very well be that this is simply Toews’ last season playing in the NHL. Toews had just 37 points in 71 games last season, and even his half-retained cap hit of $5.25MM might be too hard to stomach for most interested teams. If Toews plans to either retire or sign elsewhere in free agency, Chicago risks ill-affordable poor asset management by not getting potential trade value in return for Toews.
With that said, it’s nearly impossible to predict when Toews’ trade value would be highest. Does Chicago bank on Toews having a rebound year, allowing them to get a higher return closer to the trade deadline, or do they trade him prior to the season in anticipation of declining value? It’s a delicate, tricky situation as all parties are concerned.
Huberdeau, Weegar Open To Long-Term Extensions
It was a big shock for Jonathan Huberdeau, when he found out that he had been traded to the Calgary Flames after only knowing one organization through his first ten years in the league. The 29-year-old is heading into his final year under contract and could get his chance to go anywhere he wants, should he decide Calgary isn’t for him. But yesterday, when meeting with the media, Huberdeau explained that he is certainly open to the idea of an extension:
I’m open to staying in Calgary for a long time…I leave it to the GM and my agent, and they already started talking about it. We’ll see what’s going to happen.
He wasn’t the only one to express a willingness to extend. MacKenzie Weegar, the other big piece in the deal that sent Matthew Tkachuk to the Florida Panthers, is also heading into his final year under contract. He told the media that he is “very open” to signing a long-term deal, and explained his excitement about getting started with his new team.
The worry for many Flames fans when they saw the return was whether these two players would be around more than a few months, given their contract situations. After watching Johnny Gaudreau leave in free agency without getting anything in return, the Flames won’t be able to do the same with Huberdeau and Weegar. If they aren’t going to re-sign, flipping them somewhere else before the end of the season will be critical.
Of course, extensions won’t come cheap. Huberdeau has been one of the top playmakers in the league for years now and is coming off a 115-point season. That’s the same total as Gaudreau, who landed a seven-year, $68.25MM deal on the open market this year. The two are essentially the same age, though Huberdeau will be reaching unrestricted free agency a year later thanks to the six-year, $35.4MM contract he signed in 2016. That has been one of the best bargains in the league for a while now, as he has posted four straight years of better than point-per-game production.
Weegar too, while not quite at the same level as his teammate, will be a sought-after commodity should he hit the open market. The 28-year-old has worked his way up from the seventh round in 2013 to become a true top-pairing defenseman, even if there are a few frustrating moments where his high-risk play backfires. This season, he recorded 44 points in 80 games, logged more than 23 minutes a night, and added 179 hits (and 156 blocks). He can be used in all situations, is right-handed, and won’t turn 29 until January.
The worry now for Calgary, even if they are both willing to sign extensions, will be whether it is actually worth it. The team would be buying out exclusively UFA years for both, likely agreeing to contracts that take them well into their mid-thirties at huge price points. The team has plenty of cap space after the exits of Gaudreau and Tkachuk–more than $36MM projected for 2023-24–but could be locking themselves into a pair of declining assets, depending on what the deals look like.
So it is good to hear that both players are open to extensions but for Calgary fans, it is still an anxious time, not knowing what kind of deals might be on the horizon.
More to come…
Snapshots: Kadri, Gomez, Kulak
As the offseason progresses, more and more names have come off the board, most recently Matthew Tkachuk, MacKenzie Weegar and an unexpected name in Jonathan Huberdeau, as a result of last night’s blockbuster. One name that has remained, perhaps sitting atop that board now, is UFA center Nazem Kadri. Fresh off a Stanley Cup, Kadri haas taken his time to decide, making clear he wants to go to a contender. Considering the contract he could command after his sensational 2021-22, the teams who appear to have made their offseason splashes already, and his desire to go to a contender, Kadri’s options could become more and more limited.
One destination rumored for Kadri has been the New York Islanders, and The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz says one league source confirmed to The Athletic that there are rumblings the Islanders have been making a push for Kadri (subscription required). Bringing Kadri into the fold would make sense for the Islanders, the team needing to improve its underperforming forward group and Kadri a two-way force that spent several seasons under Islanders’ GM Lou Lamoriello when both were with the Toronto Maple Leafs. On the other hand, the center position is pretty well cemented on Long Island, Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and Casey Cizikas representing their core. On moving one of those five to the wing, one NHL coach told Kurz that Kadri is a center, not entertaining the idea of moving him to a wing, while an NHL scout wouldn’t consider the idea of moving Barzal off center, but did mention Brock Nelson, a sniper who scored 37 goals this season, as an option for the wing. Of course, all of this is hypothetical, with Kadri still very much a free agent, but the rumblings linking Kadri to the Islanders adds another wrinkle to the ever-developing story.
- Former star forward, assistant coach, and two-time Stanley Cup Champion Scott Gomez sat down with NJ.com’s Ryan Novozinsky to discuss his current career and his interest in returning to the NHL in some capacity (link). Since stepping away from his job as assistant coach with the Islanders in 2019, Gomez has worked with ELEV802, a company that builds small ice rink surfaces for children. As much as Gomez seems to enjoy his current role, he expressed interest in returning to the NHL, ideally in a team’s player development office, wanting to work with players individually, adding how important those in that role were to him in his development.
- Edmonton Oilers defenseman Brett Kulak had a chance to reflect on his trip to the UFA market and his decision to re-sign in Edmonton with Mike Arcuri of EdmontonOilers.com (link). A hometown player and native of Stony Plain, AB, Kulak nonetheless chose to take the experience and see what the market brought to him, considering it a potential once-in-a-career opportunity. Ultimately, the former Calgary Flames and Montreal Canadiens defenseman chose to stay-put, signing a four-year, $11MM contract, telling Arcuri that Edmonton’s offer gave him and his wife “the balance of things I wanted in my next contract,” citing opportunity, a good team, and dollar value as the things he was searching for. Kulak’s comments serve to shed light on the free agency experience for players and show that the decision is not always solely financial or solely personal, and impacts more than just the player. Coming from Kulak, a good NHL player, but not necessarily the prized-piece like a Johnny Gaudreau, brings light to how the average NHL player looks at these decisions, and even helps consider that no two players are exactly the same and each has plenty on their plate to influence the decision that they and their family members make.
Winnipeg Jets Sign Jeff Malott
July 22: The Jets have officially announced the contract, confirming the term and NHL cap hit.
July 21: The Winnipeg Jets are bringing back restricted free agent forward Jeff Malott on a two-year, two-way contract, per CapFriendly. The contract carries a $762.5K cap hit and will take him to unrestricted free agency in 2024. The breakdown is as follows:
2022-23: $750K NHL salary, $125K minors salary
2023-24: $775K NHL salary, $175K minors salary
Malott made his NHL debut this season, playing just 4:06 in a singular game. He did manage to take a minor penalty in that time as well. That’s not a strong indicator of his overall success, though, as he’s put together two strong professional seasons since graduating from the Cornell University program in 2020.
He was stuck in the ECHL for four games in 2020-21 but made an impact when given the chance in the AHL with Manitoba, notching 14 goals, six assists, and 20 points in 34 games during his first professional season. He solidified a top-six role in Manitoba this past season, too, breaking the 20-goal mark and finishing with 41 points in 62 games.
He’ll be turning 26 next month, and while there’s likely not a whole lot of long-term NHL upside with Malott, he’s showing he can be a solid contributor at the top of an AHL lineup and should be higher up on Winnipeg’s list of call-up options.
Poll: Who Does Matthew Tkachuk Get Traded To?
Calgary Flames forward Matthew Tkachuk‘s arbitration date on August 11 looms, but we know now that it’s only a matter of time before he suits up for another NHL team. Tkachuk told the Flames this week that he won’t re-sign long-term, either forcing a trade now or letting him walk for nothing as an unrestricted free agent next summer. With teams having spent a lot already during the free agency period, though, does a good Tkachuk trade exist with a team that he’s willing to stay with?
It’s a rarity that a restricted free agent is able to force a change of scenery like this, especially one of Tkachuk’s caliber. Easily one of the top wingers in the league (and top forwards in general), his unique fiery brand and 100+ point scoring potential is an incredibly valuable package. He finished the 2021-22 campaign with 42 goals, 62 points, and 104 points, all career highs, and received votes for the Hart and Selke Trophies.
He’ll be on his way out of Calgary, though, joining ex-teammate Johnny Gaudreau as marquee players to leave the team this summer. Having grown up in St. Louis, and with his father Keith still working for the team, a potential union between the Blues and Tkachuk has been a long-standing open secret. The Blues have been reported to be in talks with Calgary about Tkachuk, and it was also reported that St. Louis was on the small list of teams Tkachuk would accept a trade to.
While the report was contested and isn’t verified, Vegas, Florida, Nashville, and Dallas were also all teams that Tkachuk would sign a long-term deal with. While the cap situation for most of those teams isn’t favorable, Nashville and Dallas do have some more wiggle room than the rest in terms of tradeable assets that would head the other way.
So, PHR readers — where does Tkachuk end up to begin the 2021-22 season? Does he finally head home to St. Louis, does a dark horse team sweep him up, or is the relationship between him and Calgary somehow salvaged?
Who Acquires Matthew Tkachuk?
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St. Louis Blues 43% (3,435)
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Dark horse team 34% (2,748)
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Nashville Predators 6% (497)
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Florida Panthers 6% (487)
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Dallas Stars 5% (398)
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Vegas Golden Knights 3% (209)
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Stays in Calgary 2% (198)
Total votes: 7,972
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