Projecting Jordan Spence’s Contract Negotiations
Senators defenseman Jordan Spence is in his first year with the team and has proven himself to be a worthwhile gamble after Ottawa acquired him last summer from the Kings in exchange for a 2025 third-round pick – 67th overall – and a 2026 sixth-round pick. He has become an absolute steal for the Senators, as Spence has continued his strong possession game and is headed toward a career-high in points.
That’s not bad for a 25-year-old right-shot defenseman who still has plenty of upside. That being said, Spence is a restricted free agent this summer. After counting just $1.5MM against the cap this year, he is headed for a healthy raise.
The talk about Spence when he joined the Senators was that he was sheltered in Los Angeles. This year in Ottawa has been much the same story. Spence has mostly played third-pairing minutes but is averaging a career-high ice time of 18:02 per night, with well over 20 minutes a game in the Senators’ last ten games. That said, Spence still starts 70% of his shifts in the offensive zone, which indicates very favorable usage.
The challenging part for the Senators in the negotiations is that Spence will want to be paid like a top-four defenseman, and all indications suggest he should develop into one fairly quickly. However, if you’re Ottawa, you’d prefer to see him log significant top-four minutes before paying him a salary that reflects that role. That’s the risk for the Senators, but with fellow defenseman Nick Jensen done for the regular season and unlikely to return this summer, Ottawa might get a decent opportunity to assess Spence’s abilities while he plays on the second defensive pairing.
As was previously mentioned, the Senators have been relying on Spence more than usual lately, and he has been up to the challenge with five points in his last five games. But offensive capabilities aren’t really the concern when it comes to Spence, and if you look at the data from last year and this year, Spence has been outstanding.
Last year with Los Angeles, Spence led all Kings defenders in goal share and expected goal share, and he surprisingly led the entire league in expected goals against per 60. This season, it’s been more of the same as Spence leads the Senators in expected goals percentage, and he has posted the Senators’ top three results for defensive pairings with all three of his defense partners this season (Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson, and Tyler Kleven).
Some will criticize Spence for being prone to turnovers, say he needs to be sheltered because he’s not strong in his own zone, or point to the healthy scratches at the start of this season. However, since those scratches, Spence has been as reliable as they come, and defensively, he’s excellent at puck retrieval and moving the puck out of the zone. It’s also not Spence’s fault that head coach Travis Green is using his skill set more in the offensive zone.
So, who are some of Spence’s comparables? That’s where it gets tricky, given how unique the situation is with Spence and the ever-increasing NHL salary cap. A potential comparable for Spence could be former teammate Sean Durzi, who is now with the Utah Mammoth. Durzi signed a four-year, $24MM contract extension back in 2024 when he was 25 years old, but that $6MM AAV is likely too high for Spence, even though it’s a two-year-old contract.
Durzi is a better offensive player than Spence, had a longer track record of NHL success at the time he signed, and played top-four minutes consistently. Given all of that, it’s likely that Spence signs for less than Durzi if he opts for a medium-length deal.
A more recent comparable, though also on the higher end compared to Spence, is J.J. Moser of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Moser has just signed an eight-year deal worth $54MM that comes on the heels of a career-best year this season. He is another two-way defenseman who posts excellent underlying numbers and had a 60% expected goals share at the time of signing, ranking third in the entire NHL. The main difference between Spence and Moser is that Moser has a proven track record of playing in the top four, which suggests Spence is unlikely to reach the $6.75MM AAV that Moser received.
If talk of a salary in the $6MM range for a player who has mostly played third pairing throughout his career seems excessive, that’s because it probably is. Nonetheless, as the salary cap rises, so do player salaries, and $6MM is considered high; however, projections for Spence are not far from that figure. AFP Analytics predicts a four-year extension for Spence this summer with an AAV of $4.94MM. In the short term, they’ve projected a one-year deal at $1.7MM, but given that former Senators defenseman Jacob Bernard-Docker recently signed a two-year deal at $1.6MM annually, that estimate might be outdated.
If the Senators sign Spence to a multi-year deal worth $5 million annually, there will surely be sticker shock across the league, but considering Spence is only 25, has significant upside, shows solid two-way metrics, and is just two years away from becoming a UFA, the amount isn’t unreasonable given the current inflated salary cap.
Atlantic Notes: Nosek, Maple Leafs, Gaudette, Spence
After re-signing Aaron Ekblad earlier today and agreeing to terms on a new contract for Brad Marchand, the Panthers might not be done just yet. David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reports (video link) that Florida is also working on a new contract for pending unrestricted free agent center Tomas Nosek. The 32-year-old inked a one-year deal worth the league minimum of $775K on the opening day of free agency last summer and, when healthy, was largely a regular on their fourth line. Nosek picked up a goal and eight assists in 59 games this past season while winning more than half his faceoffs for the eighth straight season. Speculatively, should a new deal be reached, it should check in at or near the minimum salary once again.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic:
- Even after adding Matias Maccelli earlier today, the Maple Leafs will likely want to make an addition on the wing. To that end, Chris Johnston of TSN and The Athletic noted in an appearance on TSN 1050 (audio link) that winger Nikolaj Ehlers “holds some appeal” for Toronto. The 29-year-old is the number two player on our Top 50 UFA list and the top available with Mitch Marner on his way to Vegas in a move that’s expected to be made official soon. Ehlers has scored at least 20 goals in eight of the last nine seasons and had 63 points in 69 games in 2024-25.
- The Senators haven’t given up on trying to re-sign winger Adam Gaudette, notes Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch (Twitter link). The 29-year-old wound up scoring a career-best 19 goals this past season after being an AHL regular the previous two seasons. That has Gaudette in a position for a raise and a one-way deal; he checked in 43rd on our Top 50 UFA list.
- At the draft, Los Angeles moved defenseman Jordan Spence to Ottawa but the Senators weren’t the only Atlantic team interested in his services. Daily Faceoff’s Jeff Marek reports that the Bruins were also in on the 24-year-old. Spence had 28 points in 79 games this past season but had requested a trade in the hopes of finding a bigger role elsewhere. Speculatively, had Boston landed Spence, they may not have turned around and re-signed Henri Jokiharju, who inked a three-year deal earlier today.
Senators Acquire Jordan Spence From Kings
The Ottawa Senators are reportedly getting close to acquiring defenseman Jordan Spence from the Los Angeles Kings, per TSN’s Bruce Garrioch. The Los Angeles Kings will receive a 2025 third-round pick – 67th-overall – and a 2026 sixth-round pick in return per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. The move has been confirmed by the Senators.
In the minutes leading up to the start of draft day two, Ottawa has pulled off yet another lucrative deal. They acquired the third-round pick moved in this deal from the Nashville Predators on Friday, as part of a package with the 23rd-overall pick to move up to Ottawa’s 21st-oveall slot. The Senators went on to select Logan Hensler at 23, landing a heavy-body and poised defender who should fit perfectly ahead of Spence in the Senators’ future lineup. That makes this acquisition of Spence all the sweeter for Ottawa. For the net cost of 21st overall and a sixth-round pick, they’ll land a top prospect in Hensler, and a high-upside puck-mover in Spence.
Spence climbed into a hardy role in the Kings lineup over the last two seasons, on the back of confident play-driving and gradual improvements to his game away from the puck. Last season marked his first full year in the NHL, and he marked it with 24 points, 12 penalty minutes, and a plus-five through 71 games played. Not to be outdone, Spence returned to the NHL full-time this year and improved his stat line to 28 points, 16 penalty minutes, and a plus-23 in 79 appearances. He’s a crafty and quick defender, though one often undercut by his 5-foot-11, 180-pound frame.
That size has kept Spence an unheralded player for much of his hockey career. He was originally drafted by the Kings in the fourth round of the 2019 NHL Draft, following a year where he scored 49 points in 68 games with the QMJHL’s Moncton Wildcats. He continued on in the QMJHL for the next two seasons, and didn’t reach point-per-game scoring until he managed 40 points in 22 games of the shortened 2020-21 campaign.
It was on the heels of that surge to scoring that Spence opted to turn pro. He played through his rookie AHL season, and fell one game short of his rookie NHL season, in the 2021-22 season. That year was marked by a productive 42 points in 46 AHL games, but just eight points in 24 NHL games. He returned for much of the same in the following year – netting 45 points in 56 AHL games but just one point in six NHL appearances.
Now, Spence seems firmly set as a routine, full-time NHL fixture. That fact made him a tough asset for the Kings to hold onto, with Drew Doughty and Brandt Clarke holding firm roles in the lineup above Spence. The Senators should be able to reward him with much more playing time – with their right-side only blocked off by Artem Zub and Nick Jensen, two options who move the puck far less than Spence. That setup could be the makings of a breakout year for the flashy defender, though just how well his all-three-zones playmaking will hold up at the NHL level is yet to be seen.
Friedman: Kings Could Consider Trading Jordan Spence
Although he didn’t specify a specific rumor, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman opined on 32 Thoughts that he believes the Los Angeles Kings could look to move defenseman Jordan Spence this offseason.
Friedman believes that the Kings want to give Brandt Clarke a larger role and do not see the need for three top-four defenders on the right side. Spence should be easy to move if they’d like to, given he’s coming off back-to-back quality years and is making a modest $1.5MM salary.
Los Angeles was able to get away with having Clarke and Spence in large roles for much of the 2024-25 campaign, given regular top-pairing blue-liner Drew Doughty was injured for most of the year. Still, with Doughty entering his age-36 season, and only having two more years on his contract, one could rationalize the Kings retaining Spence and Clarke for when he ultimately retires.
As a counterpoint, and this isn’t a knock on Spence, the Kings shouldn’t have much difficulty finding a similar defenseman in a few years when Doughty hangs up his skates, giving credibility to moving him now for an improvement. Over the past two years, Spence has scored six goals and 52 points in 150 games, averaging 15:40 of ice time per game, registering 132 blocked shots, and racking up 147 hits.
Much of his value can be explained via advanced analytics, as Spence led all Los Angeles defensemen with a 57.1% CorsiFor% and finished third behind Michael Anderson and Doughty in on-ice save percentage with 92.1%. Given his age and relatively low salary, Spence should have a robust market, and allow the Kings to improve their team via trade, especially if they strike out on some of their free agent targets.
West Notes: Toews, LaCombe, Spence
Colorado Avalanche defenseman Devon Toews will not dress tonight when the team takes on the Boston Bruins (as per Avalanche play-by-play announcer Conor McGahey). The 30-year-old will miss his second consecutive game with a lower-body injury as the Avalanche will be looking to get into the win column for the first time this season.
Colorado has started the year 0-3 as they try to overcome a growing list of injury concerns. They will be in tough against the Bruins without the services of Toews. Oliver Kylington will take Toews’s place on the top pair once again alongside Cale Makar, while Sam Malinski will likely occupy Toews’s spot on the second power-play unit.
In other Western Conference notes:
- Anaheim Ducks defenseman Jackson LaCombe took the morning skate with the team but won’t play tonight as he continues to deal with an illness (as per Derek Lee of The Hockey News). The 23-year-old has yet to play this season as he will miss his third consecutive game to start the year. The Eden Prairie, Minnesota native signed a two-year $1.85MM extension with the Ducks in July and will likely compete with Olen Zellweger for a spot in Anaheim’s defense core going forward.
- Dennis Bernstein of The Fourth Period is reporting that the Los Angeles Kings scratched Jordan Spence tonight against the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Kings opted for a third pairing of Caleb Jones and Andreas Englund which is very telling given the commitment Los Angeles showed to Spence in the summer by signing him to a two-year deal worth $3MM. The 23-year-old has had an abysmal start to the season, getting pinned in the defensive zone regularly while struggling with turnovers. The Kings hoped Spence would claim a spot on their backend after Matt Roy departed to Washington in free agency, but his struggles have become too much for the Kings to ignore. Spence’s time in the press box will likely be short-lived though as the Kings are being throttled by the Maple Leafs tonight and are sure to make changes before they take the ice tomorrow night against the Montreal Canadiens.
Kings’ Defensive Success Sits With High-Scoring Prospects
The Los Angeles Kings will be entering the 2024-25 season with a glaring absence on defense after Matt Roy opted to sign with the Washington Capitals. Roy was a pillar of the Kings’ lineup, averaging 20 minutes a night over the last three seasons and serving as the consistent, well-rounded impact that allowed riskier players like Drew Doughty to thrive. But despite losing a paramount right-handed defender, Los Angeles has yet to make any notable blue-line additions – save for a surprisingly expensive, four-year deal for left-shot Joel Edmundson. They’re now left with just $1.4MM in remaining cap space, leaving the job of filling Roy’s role up to top young Kings Jordan Spence and Brandt Clarke.
Spence is the more seasoned of the two, having appeared in 101 NHL games over the last three seasons. He broke out in a major way during his first professional season in 2021-22, earning an NHL call-up after posting 42 points through his first 46 AHL games. The scoring translated to the top level, with Spence posting eight points through his first 24 NHL games – the fifth-highest point-per-game scoring of any Kings defender that season. He settled in for a full AHL season in the following year, playing in six NHL games and scoring just one point, though Spence did post an impressive 45 points in 56 AHL games. That production was, again, enough to earn him a consistent NHL role this season – something he managed to good effect, netting 24 points in 71 games despite averaging just 14:26 in ice time.
Meanwhile, Clarke stands as Los Angeles’ unrivaled top prospect and looked stellar in his first professional season this year. He fought for the scoring lead on the AHL’s Ontario Reign for much of the year, ultimately recording 46 points in 50 games – the highest scoring rate of an AHL rookie defender since Jack Rathbone in 2020-21, and Justin Schultz in 2012-13 before him. While Rathbone and Schultz have each seen their scoring stall at the NHL level, Clarke seems to be poised to buck the trend after netting six points in his first 16 games with the Kings. Even more exciting – Clarke stood up to a variety of roles in his first NHL stint, playing as little as seven minutes, or as much as 18 minutes, on any given night.
Both Spence and Clarke have fought their way towards more-and-more opportunity in the Kings organization on the back of strong offense, but also carry reasons to hesitate before they’re thrust into the spotlight. Spence has looked admittedly lanky and easy to knock around at times, shying him away from driving too deep into either zone. Clarke shares that hesitancy, as someone still finding his pro footing, and has also yet to show the breakaway speed of a top NHL offensive-defenseman. But the pair still offers tantalizing scoring upside for a Kings defense that’s only supported one 50-point defender since 2000 – Doughty, who’s achieved the feat five times.
Roy was never much of a scorer, even in top minutes, with a career-high of just 26 points. His departure, juxtaposed by the scoring upside of former top-10 pick Clarke, and point-per-game minor leaguer Spence, matched with the defensive safety net of Gavrikov, could be enough to finally give the Kings another high-scoring defender. But one of the two top young defenders will need to take a major step forward if they want to embrace the lofty, top-four vacancy in the L.A. lineup.
Kings Re-Sign Jordan Spence To Two-Year Deal
1:00 p.m.: Spence’s new contract is official, per a team announcement. PuckPedia adds that his contract comes with a $300K signing bonus plus a $1MM base salary in 2024-25. He’ll earn a raise to a $1.7MM base salary in 2025-26, meaning that will be the worth of his qualifying offer upon expiry.
12:15 p.m.: The Kings are re-signing RFA defenseman Jordan Spence to a two-year deal worth $3MM, reports John Hoven of Mayor’s Manor.
Based on Hoven’s report, Spence’s deal will carry a $1.5MM cap hit this season and next. The Kings had $2.91MM in projected cap space for 2024-25 prior to the signing, per PuckPedia.
Spence, 23, became a full-time fixture on the Kings’ blue line this season after playing most of the prior two seasons with their AHL affiliate in Ontario. He did so in the third and final season of his entry-level contract, making him an RFA at season’s end. He wasn’t eligible to file for arbitration this summer.
The 2019 fourth-round pick has been a revelation offensively since turning pro. While undersized at 5’10” and 181 lbs, he’s one of the best puck-handling defenders in the organization and put up 87 points in 103 AHL games over the past few years, spectacular production for an early-20s talent. The right-shot defenseman smashed his previous career-high of 24 NHL appearances last season and suited up 71 times, finishing third among Kings blue-liners in scoring with 24 points (two goals, 22 assists). He did so in third-pairing minutes with only fringe power-play time, averaging 14:26 per game.
The Manly, Australia native will likely be relied upon for more minutes next season after Matt Roy departed for the Capitals in free agency. He, along with 2021 eighth-overall pick Brandt Clarke, will likely have a training camp battle for a spot on the team’s second pairing alongside Vladislav Gavrikov.
With Spence signed at $1.5MM per season, the Kings are cap-compliant with a full 23-player roster, PuckPedia shows. Their only remaining RFA is winger Arthur Kaliyev, but he’s not expected to sign a new contract with the club and still has an active trade request. L.A. will have $1.41MM in cap space on opening night if their roster shakes out as projected.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Kings Place Viktor Arvidsson On LTIR, Recall Jordan Spence
It was less than two weeks ago that the Kings got Viktor Arvidsson back from his back injury. However, after already returning to injured reserve recently, the team has gone a step further, announcing that they’ve transferred him to LTIR for the second time this season. Meanwhile, the Kings also recalled defenseman Jordan Spence from AHL Ontario.
Arvidsson missed the first four months of the season before returning to the lineup on February 15th. The 30-year-old picked up two assists in his first three games but then suffered a lower-body injury on his first shift on Tuesday versus Columbus. The good news is that this injury won’t carry as long of a recovery time as the first one did as he is expected to be back before the end of the regular season. Assuming that the placement was back-dated to the time of injury (their release didn’t specify the effective date), Arvidsson could be eligible to return as soon as March 15th against Chicago.
As for Spence, his recall was needed due to Michael Anderson suffering an upper-body injury on Thursday versus Nashville. The exact timeline for his recovery isn’t known but he has been ruled out for tonight’s game against Anaheim already. That would have put the Kings down to five defenders and they had nowhere near enough cap space to bring Spence up, resulting in them needing to transfer Arvidsson to LTIR to create the short-term cap room.
It’s the fourth recall of the season for Spence, who has spent the majority of the campaign in the NHL. The 22-year-old has played in 44 games so far with Los Angeles, collecting 16 points (all assists) while averaging just shy of 15 minutes a night on the third pairing. Spence has made just one AHL appearance with the Reign which was one Wednesday; he was held out of Ontario’s lineup on Friday with his recall pending.
Kings Assign Jordan Spence To AHL
The Kings assigned defenseman Jordan Spence to the AHL’s Ontario Reign on Wednesday, per the league’s transactions log.
Spence, 22, has been a healthy scratch in six out of Los Angeles’ last 10 games. While he’s been effective in a limited role, he’s been surpassed on the depth chart by 2021 eighth-overall pick Brandt Clarke among right-shot defenders.
The 5-foot-10 Australian-born blue-liner has 16 assists in 44 games this year and has remained on the NHL roster since Nov. 11. Selected 95th overall in 2019, Spence is a Canadian and Japanese national and suited up for Canada at the 2019 U18 World Juniors and the 2021 U20 World Juniors.
He’s been one of the best offensive defenders in the AHL since turning pro in 2021, posting 87 points across 102 games with the Reign. His NHL possession numbers have been strong, too, with a career Corsi for percentage at even strength of 57.9 and an expected 8.0 rating across his 74 games dating back to 2021.
That said, Clarke is the higher-ceiling prospect and has generated more offense in his limited role than Spence. It’s a poor numbers game for the latter, who’s not able to push out established top-four defenders Drew Doughty and Matt Roy on the right side.
Given his strong minor-league offensive production, promising possession numbers, age, and right-shot status, Spence should have high value should the Kings leverage him in a trade before deadline day. He’s in the final season of his entry-level contract, which carries an $820K cap hit, and will be an RFA without arbitration rights this summer.
Pacific Notes: Spence, Hoffman, Markstrom, Golden Knights
Kings defenseman Jordan Spence has changed agents and is now represented by Quartexx, PuckPedia reports (Twitter link). The 22-year-old is in his first full season at the NHL level, appearing in all but one of 26 games for Los Angeles so far. A prominent point producer in the minors with 87 points in 102 games with AHL Ontario, Spence has had a bit of a harder go hitting the scoreboard in the NHL although he does have nine assists while averaging just shy of 15 minutes a night. Spence is set to become a restricted free agent for the first time this summer and will be owed a qualifying offer worth a little over $813K.
More from the Pacific Division:
- Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch suggests Sharks winger Mike Hoffman could be a name to keep an eye on when it comes to the trade front. After getting off to a slow start, the 34-year-old is up to eight goals in 28 games, just one off the team lead. A pending UFA with a $4.5MM cap hit, the asking price for Hoffman likely won’t be very high but he could be a useful addition to a team looking to add a bit of firepower to their bottom six.
- Flames goaltender Jacob Markstrom practiced on Wednesday with their AHL affiliate, relays Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson. The 33-year-old has been out for the last week and a half with a finger injury but Gilbertson pointed out that Markstrom didn’t seem to be limited at all which suggests the netminder could be nearing a return. Calgary has a full roster at the moment although that can easily be addressed by returning top prospect Dustin Wolf back to the Wranglers.
- Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill is expected to accompany the team on their road trip next week, notes Danny Webster of the Las Vegas Sun (Twitter link). The 27-year-old has missed the last week and a half with a lower-body injury after getting off to a stellar start; he leads the NHL in GAA (1.87) and SV% (.935) over his first 14 starts. Meanwhile, Webster adds that defenseman Kaedan Korczak will miss some time due to a lower-body injury of his own. Korczak has a goal and six assists in 15 games with Vegas so far this season.