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Pacific Notes: Treliving, Pavelski, Bear, Sautner

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The Calgary Flames seem to gamble on their success every season lately when it comes to their offseason moves. This year, attempting to address their second-half collapse, general manager Brad Treliving made several key moves to revitalize the franchise, including trading away defenseman Dougie Hamilton, Micheal  Ferland and collegeiate defenseman Adam Fox for youngsters Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm. The team also went out and signed a 30-year-old James Neal to a five-year, $28.75MM deal as well as signing veteran bottom-six center to three-year, $9.38MM contract. Many of those moves will turn out to be quite a gamble.

The Athletic’s Kent Wilson (subscription required) wonders whether this might be the last year for Treliving if the team doesn’t show immediate improvement and return to respectability. Several of his gambles from previous seasons have failed, most especially last year’s trade for Travis Hamonic for a slew of draft picks. While the trade made sense at the time, the deal looks worse and worse as time passes.

Treliving also has used his draft assets to add players over the last two years as he has had just one pick in the top 105 over those two seasons to acquire players like Hamonic, Curtis Lazar, Michael Stone and veteran goaltender Mike Smith, most of which have made few contributions so far to the team. Throw in the team’s lack of uncertainty in net in the future and one has to wonder whether Treliving will survive the next season if the team doesn’t make immediate improvements.

  • The San Jose Sharks have done an impressive job of combining veteran talent with an infusion of youth over the years and none more than last year when several of their young players really stepped up, including Tomas Hertl, Chris Tierney, Timo Meier, Joonas Donskoi and Kevin Labanc. Even on defense, their youth took another step. However, how long can the veterans hold out? The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz (subscription required) wonders how much Joe Pavelski has left in the tank and how much the team depends on him? Despite missing just one game in the last five season, the 34-year-old veteran’s production dropped to just 22 goals last year, his worst season since the strike-shortened 2012-13 season. One of the reasons for his decline was that he was banged up early in the season with a wrist injury, a broken finger and some lower-body injuries. Although Pavelski’s days of scoring 40 goals is likely over, the team hopes they can count on Pavelski’s experience and skills to help lead the team on the top-six as there is no doubt the veteran will get the lion’s share of minutes on the team again this year.
  • The Athletic’s Allan Mitchell (subscription required) looks at the play of Edmonton Oilers defenseman Ethan Bear, who has been one of Edmonton’s top propsects. The 21-year-old played most of the season with the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL, but finally broke into the NHL in March, playing in 18 total games. However, Mitchell writes that while Bear showed some offensive prowess, he struggled in coverage and gap control and likely needs more time in the AHL to be successful. With the injury to Andrej Sekera, Bear could get another chance to make the Oilers out of training camp.
  • With few changes in their defensive personnel, the Vancouver Canucks have to look at as many internal defensive options if they want to get better. One option is Ashton Sautner, according to Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Sun. The 24-year-old agitator finally got recalled last season by Vancouver in hopes of providing the team with an energy presence. He played five games on an emergency recall and had an impressive showing. Unfortunately, Kuzma doesn’t think he has much of a chance to make the team out of training camp this season as the team has nine defenseman under contract, including 2016 first-round pick Olli Juolevi, giving him little to no chance in making the NHL squad.

Oilers Offer A PTO To Brandon Davidson

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After inking Jakub Jerabek yesterday to a one-year contract, the Oilers don’t appear to be finished shopping for defensive help in free agency.  Postmedia’s Jim Matheson reports (Twitter link) that Edmonton has offered a tryout deal to Brandon Davidson, who is also currently sitting on multiple two-way offers.  At this point, it’s likely that Davidson is still hoping to land a one-way pact before committing to something else.

The 27-year-old has had two separate stints with the Oilers previously.  After dealing him to Montreal in February of 2017, they claimed him off waivers from the Canadiens last December.  Three months later, they flipped him to the Islanders in exchange for a 2019 third-round pick.  Given how he has bounced around though, Davidson may be hard-pressed to get a one-way contract but if he has to go the PTO route, going back to a place where he’s had success in Edmonton would be a good move.

Jakub Jerabek Signs With Edmonton Oilers

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Tuesday: According to PuckPedia and CapFriendly, Jerabek’s deal will pay him $1MM this season in Edmonton. That leaves the team with just under $4MM remaining in cap space to sign Nurse and make any other additions necessary.

Monday: Tons of speculation erupted recently about who the Edmonton Oilers would bring in to help replace Andrej Sekera after it was announced he had undergone surgery, and today we got an answer. Jakub Jerabek has signed a one-year contract with the team after splitting last season between the Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals.

Jerabek signed out of the KHL last summer, and began the year with the Laval Rocket in the AHL. A capable puck-mover and third pairing defender, he eventually found his way up to the Canadiens where he suited up for 25 games. As the Montreal season was out of reach and Jerabek was on only a one-year deal, the Canadiens flipped him to the Capitals at the deadline in exchange for a fifth-round pick. In 11 games down the stretch with the Capitals, Jerabek matched his Montreal total with four points but was asked to play in just two postseason contests as the team fought for the Stanley Cup.

In Edmonton, Jerabek doesn’t perfectly replace Sekera but will give the team another option to battle with the likes of Kevin Gravel and Keegan Lowe for the last few roster spots. It’s unlikely that the 27-year old is given much powerplay time or asked to defend the tough matchups, but at least he represents a bit of upside for minimal cost. The Oilers are pressed right up against the salary cap given that they still have a Darnell Nurse contract to work out, and can’t really afford to acquire any impact defenders—though, Sekera’s status could change that if he’s destined for long-term injured reserve. Regardless, the team will need to find a way to turn this group of defensemen into a playoff caliber blue line in short order, or risk wasting another one of Connor McDavid’s prime years in mediocrity.

Poll: Early Hart Trophy Favorite?

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It may be the slowest stretch of the off-season, but the odds-makers at Bovada are staying busy. As Sports Illustrated’s Michael Blinn writes, the first odds for the NHL’s MVP Award, the Hart Trophy, for the 2018-19 season are out. Very few could have predicted that the New Jersey Devils’ Taylor Hall would have taken home the title this past season at this point last year. Is next year’s winner even on the board? Or will it be one of the heavy favorites?

To no surprise, Edmonton Oilers phenom Connor McDavid has the best odds to win the Hart for the second time in three years after being crowned in 2017. McDavid has 10/3 odds to win the award and those are actually pretty fair odds. Even last season, when McDavid was not even a finalist for the Hart, he nevertheless was the league’s leading scorer with 108 points, six more than the next-best player. It was the second season in a row that McDavid won the scoring title and that trend seems unlikely to change if he remains healthy. However, there are some who will say that McDavid’s Hart chances are tied to the success of the Oilers. The argument this past season was that he could not truly be the most valuable player in the league when his contributions still left Edmonton far from a playoff spot. With a roster that has been largely unimproved this off-season, another regular season disappointment for the Oilers could make it hard for McDavid to get back on top.

Next up is two-time Hart winner Sidney Crosby at 13/5. The face of the Pittsburgh Penguins dynasty has long been considered the best player on the planet. Yet, one would think that Crosby might actually have more than two MVP titles. Crosby has scored between 84 and 120 points in every healthy season of his career, but his impressive supporting cast detracts from the impact of those unbelievable numbers. Especially last season, when Crosby was narrowly outscored by both Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel, it would have been close to impossible for him to win the Hart. Malkin (18/1 odds) and Kessel (75/1 odds) are still Penguins and barring injuries to one or both, Crosby would have to take his game to an even higher level to get back into Hart consideration.

Maple Leafs centers John Tavares and Auston Matthews both have 10/1 odds to win the Hart, as the odds-makers clearly expect there to be plenty of offense to go around in Toronto next season. Injuries held Matthews to 63 points last season, outside the top 50 in scoring, while a healthy Tavares only managed to tie for sixteenth with 84 points for the New York Islanders. Both players will greatly need to improve their production to be Hart – and it is certainly possible now that they are playing together – yet an improvement by both could land them in Crosby/Malkin territory where they cancel each other out in the Hart race.

Reigning Stanley Cup, Conn Smythe, and Maurice Richard winner Alex Ovechkin also has 10/1 odds to take home the Hart. Ovechkin has done it three times before, more than any other active player in the league. However, Ovechkin’s 49 goals last year only came with 38 assists, as his 87 points kept him outside the top ten in scoring. At 33 years old this season, the Washington Capitals captain will have to fight both the aging process and a potential Cup hangover to improve his production if he wants a fourth Hart. Ovechkin’s 10/1 odds seem like a stretch.

At 15/1 are both the 2018 winner Hall and finalist Nathan MacKinnon, as well as Nikita Kucherov and Mark Scheifele. This is where the value lies in these early odds. The former duo greatly benefited from both excellent seasons – 97 points for MacKinnon and 93 points for Hall – but also being far and away the best players on the New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche respectively. Both should again lead the way for their clubs and if they match their previous output and again sneak into the postseason, it would be no surprise to see them both back in consideration next year. As for Kucherov, he was the favorite to win the Hart for a long stretch last season as he led the league in scoring. Although his production tailed off as the season closed out, the dynamic Tampa Bay Lightning winger still managed to finish third with 100 points. Tampa will be top contenders again and promise to light up the score board with Kucherov leading the way. Perhaps this time he can seal the deal on the Hart. Scheifele is a dark horse candidate who could be the breakout star of the coming season like Hall and MacKinnon last year. The Winnipeg Jets franchise center played in only 60 games last year, but scored 60 points and continues to show flashes of brilliance. He could be a savvy pick to take home the hardware.

Among the rest of the field are some very interesting options. Los Angeles Kings star Anze Kopitar, a Hart finalist last season, has 18/1 odds and new weapon to play with in Ilya Kovalchuk (50/1 odds). Philadelphia Flyers captain Claude Giroux has 25/1 odds despite finishing second only to McDavid at the top of the scoring charts last season with 102 points. Boston Bruins winger Brad Marchand, also 25/1 odds, was arguably the most dangerous scorer in the league last season when on the ice, finishing 13th overall in scoring with 85 points in just 68 games – the only player in the top 50 to play in less than 70 games. Bargain odds belong to Artemi Panarin at 50/1. The Columbus Blue Jackets dynamo gets better each year since coming over to the NHL and could toy with 100 points in his second year with the team. That would make for an interesting off-season, as Panarin is slated for free agency next summer.

What do you think? Does Bovada have the right names at the top? Or will the Hart winner be another unpredictable upset like Hall?

Pacific Notes: Juolevi, Kase, Smith, Klefbom

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While asking the question of when will Vancouver Canucks prospect Olli Juolevi play his first NHL game, Ben Kuzma of The Province writes that his chances of making this year’s squad has already been hampered when he suffered a lower-back injury during offseason training. The 20-year–old fifth-overall pick in 2016 had a minimally invasive disk procedure to relieve pressure on his spinal nerve column, which was expected to sideline him for eight to 10 weeks.

Kuzma writes that defenseman Alexander Edler suffered a similar injury back in the 2010-11 season and needed a full 10 weeks to recover. Juolevi likely won’t begin full-intensive training until the end of August, therefore, and will only get about three weeks to get in shape for training camp. With his chances of making the team already a question mark before 2018 first-rounder Quinn Hughes announced he would return to the University of Michigan, what are his chances now?

“He’s on schedule,” said Canucks’ general manager Jim Benning. “He has been working out and will be ready for training camp. We expect him to come to put his best foot forward. We’ll see where he is at and go from there.”

  • Eric Stephens of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that with the signing of Ondrej Kase to three-year, $7.8MM deal, the Anaheim Ducks may have quite the logjam at the forward position this year as the team likely will have to find a more prominent role for Kase, which could be challenging. The team has a logjam at the right wing position as many believe that veteran Patrick Eaves could likely join Ryan Getzlaf on the team’s top line next year. The second line will be either manned by Jakob Silfverberg or Corey Perry, which could force Kase to move to the fourth line. That’s not likely to happen. So what can they do for Kase? Move him to the left side? Stephens writes that might work for temporary situations such as injuries that come up, but is hardly a permanent solution for the 22-year-old who is just starting to enter his prime. Stephens adds that a more likely possibility, especially if Ryan Kesler is not ready for the regular season, would be to move Silfverberg off the right side to accommodate Kase.
  • Kent Wilson of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Calgary Flames may have redesigned their team, but they are taking a big gamble in the net with 36-year-old Mike Smith. The veteran had an amazing first-half of the season before suffering an injury and never looked the same. While the hope is that Smith is fully recovered and should return to form for this season, Wilson writes that he’s entering the “danger age” for goaltenders who have historically fallen off a cliff at 36. If the team can’t get a big year from Smith, the team only has David Rittich and Jon Gillies as insurance, which could crush the team’s hopes for a playoff berth in a very deep Pacific Division.
  • Jamie Umbach of NHL.com takes a look at the Edmonton Oilers defenseman Oscar Klefbom, who regressed last season after a breakout season in the 2016-17 season in which he tallied 12 goals and 38 points. However, a shoulder injury sustained in the Western Conference Finals hovered over him all of last year to the point that he five goals and 21 points in 66 games before he opted to have season-ending surgery to repair his shoulder. Klefbom has been given a clean bill of health this offseason is ready to return for a big season next year. “It feels good going home knowing the shoulder is 100 percent so I don’t have to go through this again with medications and injections,” Klefbom said.

Influx Of Foreign Talent A Trend In 2018 Off-Season

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While the NHL free agent market remains flush with talented veteran players, some now beginning to depart for Europe without any leads around the league, NHL teams have quietly imported a fair amount of foreign talent this off-season. While few of these players are stars or even surefire regulars at the NHL level, the fact remains that those on two-way deals slated for depth roles are nevertheless taking those jobs from the current remnants of the market, who at this point would gladly take an AHL assignment with upside. Teams clearly have felt this off-season that taking a chance on a promising foreign player was a better use of a contract than recycling aging domestic veterans. A total of 36 players who played in Europe last season are now headed to North America, where they will suit up for 24 different organizations – showing the popularity of importing talent this off-season. Here are the foreign free agent signings this summer:

D Ilya Lyubushkin (Arizona Coyotes)
F David Ullstrom (Arizona Coyotes)
F Martin Bakos (Boston Bruins)
D Lawrence Pilut (Buffalo Sabres)
F Yasin Ehliz (Calgary Flames)
D Marcus Hogstrom (Calgary Flames)
F Saku Maenalanen (Carolina Hurricanes)
F Dominik Kahun (Chicago Blackhawks)
G Kevin Lankinen (Chicago Blackhawks)
F Jacob Nilsson (Chicago Blackhawks)
G Pavel Francouz (Colorado Avalanche)
F Valeri Nichushkin (Dallas Stars)*
G Patrik Rybar (Detroit Red Wings)
G Mikko Koskinen (Edmonton Oilers)
D Joel Persson (Edmonton Oilers)
D Bogdan Kiselevich (Florida Panthers)
F Ilya Kovalchuk (Los Angeles Kings)
D Eric Martinsson (Minnesota Wild)
D Michal Moravcik (Montreal Canadiens)
D David Sklenicka (Montreal Canadiens)
F Carl Persson (Nashville Predators)
D Filip Pyrochta (Nashville Predators)
G Miroslav Svoboda (Nashville Predators)
D Egor Yakovlev (New Jersey Devils)
F Jan Kovar (New York Islanders)
D Yannick Rathgeb (New York Islanders)
F Michael Lindqvist (New York Rangers)
F Ville Meskanen (New York Rangers)
D Juuso Riikola (Pittsburgh Penguins)
F Lukas Radil (San Jose Sharks)
F Antti Suomela (San Jose Sharks)
F Par Lindholm (Toronto Maple Leafs)
D Igor Ozhiganov (Toronto Maple Leafs)
F Brooks Macek (Vegas Golden Knights)
F Juuso Ikonen (Washington Capitals)
F Maximilian Kammerer (Washington Capitals)
F Dennis Everberg (Winnipeg Jets)

While the obvious highlight of this list is the return of Kovalchuk, inking a substantial deal with the L.A. Kings, the rest are far more than just AHL placeholders. Nichushkin, albeit not a true free agent signing since his rights never left the Stars, is back in Dallas and looking to make an impact. Koskinen is set to be the primary backup to Cam Talbot in Edmonton and, while his role was muddied somewhat by the acquisition of Philipp Grubauer, Francouz is sure to see some action in net with Colorado. Kovar was brought in to be a starter in New York, while Ullstrom – a former Islander – will push for a roster spot with Arizona. After a couple of years abroad, Everberg is back in the league and hoping to find a role in Winnipeg. If Simon Despres, on a PTO with the Montreal Canadiens, earns a contract, he could make a difference as well.

Several more of these players could wind up winning spots in training camp battles, while even more will earn call-ups throughout the year. It is an extensive list and each and every name bears watching as they begin or continue their North American pro careers. Both the risk and upside of bringing over fresh, foreign talent versus sticking with experienced yet stagnant veterans is apparent. For some teams these gambles will fail, while others may find a diamond in the rough.

 

Oilers Had Interest In Torey Krug Last Season

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With Andrej Sekera once again out long-term following surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon, Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports Boston notes that the Oilers showed interest in Bruins blueliner Torey Krug last season and wonders if the injury could help re-spark the talks.  Boston doesn’t necessarily want to move Krug but given their depth on the back end, it could make sense for them to use him as a trade chip to get some top-six help up front.

However, with Krug checking in at a $5.25MM cap hit, Edmonton would need to unload a similarly-priced contract as they still have to re-sign blueliner Darnell Nurse and long-term injury reserve would only help until Sekera is ready to return; they will have to be back in cap compliance before they can activate him later in the season.  The team only has a handful of forwards near that price range in Milan Lucic and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.  It’s doubtful that Boston would want Lucic and the five years left on his contract so unless the Oilers are comfortable with moving Nugent-Hopkins (something that has seemingly become less and less likely compared to a year ago), there may not be a great trade fit at this time between the two teams.

“A Lot Of Doubt” Still Surrounds Henrik Zetterberg’s Future

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Reports have surfaced every few weeks this summer that Detroit Red Wings captain Henrik Zetterberg may not play in the 2018-19 season due to a lingering back injury, and last week GM Ken Holland muddied the water even further. Holland called Zetterberg an “unknown” when speaking to reporters, and indicated he would know more in September. That timeline is what head coach Jeff Blashill repeated to Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News, but seemed even less confident in Zetterberg’s ability to play this season:

He’s had a hard summer and I don’t think his back is reacting great. Certainly we’ll know more in a month, but as of today, there’s a lot of doubt as to whether his back will be healthy enough to play.

If Zetterberg does sit out the year, the Red Wings could put his $6.08MM cap hit on long-term injured reserve to create some more cap flexibility. The actual salary of his deal drops to just $3.35MM this season, and the contract will pay him just $1MM in each of the next two years. That seems like quite the coincidence given that Zetterberg hasn’t missed a regular season game in three straight seasons, but Blashill was quick to point out that his captain was also forced to stop practicing entirely for the last two months of the 2017-18 season.

From 1990-91 to 2015-16 the Red Wings never missed the postseason, and Zetterberg played a crucial role in many of those seasons. He, Pavel Datsyuk and Nicklas Lidstrom formed the core of a powerhouse team for years, until the latter’s retirement in 2012. Now having missed the postseason in back to back years, the Red Wings will try to form a new young core of players like Dylan Larkin, Filip Zadina and Anthony Mantha to get them back to the promised land and compete for the Stanley Cup once again. It never seemed like Zetterberg could be a real part of that, even without a career-threatening injury popping up. The 37-year old has seen his offensive numbers decline in recent years, to the point of just scoring 11 goals last season. That was the lowest full-season total of his career, and one that the team should be able to replace.

They won’t as easily replace his leadership though, which will put even more pressure on Larkin to develop into a true first-line center. Without that the Red Wings could be in for a tough season, given their cap problems and lack of real elite talent throughout the lineup.

If it is the end for Zetterberg, he would be leaving the game with 960 career points in 1,082 regular season games. The veteran forward has been in Selke contention for nearly his entire career as one of the better defensive forwards in the league, and took home a Conn Smythe trophy during the Red Wings 2008 Stanley Cup run. Undoubtedly one of the most well-respected and beloved Red Wings players in history, this would be a tough way to see his career come to an end.

Options For The Oilers To Replace Andrej Sekera

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Normally, it takes training camp before any teams begin scrambling for an unanticipated injury replacement among the leftovers of the market. It is unclear how long the Edmonton Oilers knew about the injury to defenseman Andrej Sekera – they announced the surgery today indicating they knew of the injury prior – but what is clear is that the team will need to add another body to the mix in Sekera’s stead. Out indefinitely with a torn Achilles tendon, Sekera is likely to miss a substantial amount of time and extremely unlikely to be back at 100% at any point in the 2018-19 season. It is no coincidence that with Sekera missing most of last season due to a knee injury, the Oilers defense struggled on all fronts. Sekera had easily been the team’s top defender over the two years prior and this will now be the second straight season where he cannot be relied upon. The team must do something to avoid another frustrating campaign on the blue line, but what?

In replacing Sekera, Edmonton will likely target a right-handed defenseman. Although Sekera is a lefty himself, the team is set on the left side regardless with Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, and Kris Russell. There is also free agent addition Kevin Gravel, also a left-handed defenseman, though he is best suited for his current extra man slot. The right side however poses questions behind Adam Larsson, with Matt Benning likely slated for the second pair and now a hole on the third pair. It is unlikely that the Oilers want to press Benning into a top-four role this season, nor do they want a left-handed depth option like Gravel, Ryan Stanton, or Keegan Lowe as a regular on the right side. As such, they are likely looking for a second-pair caliber righty.

The easy answer is the free agent market. In a relatively stagnant summer, there remains ample talent available in unrestricted free agent defensemen. However, the Oilers are not in the most flexible of positions. The team currently has all but approximately $5MM in cap space committed to their roster which doesn’t include restricted free agent defenseman Nurse, still in need of a new contract. If and when Nurse re-signs, the team will be left with little to no cap space. Fortunately, at this point in the summer they face little competition on the free agent market and could negotiate several tryout deals with available defenders, signing one or more after the start of the season once Sekera’s $5.5MM cap hit can be buried on injured reserve. Yet, the pickings are slim on the right side. Cody Franson could be the team’s best bet with Paul Postma potentially as the next-best option. Ryan Sproul or Frank Corrado could be younger dark horse candidates, while the team could possibly look at veteran Kevin Bieksa. However, if the Oilers consider overloading on lefties as they would have anyway with Sekera, then Toby Enstrom, Luca Sbisa, Alexei Emelin, Johnny Oduya, or even old friend Brandon Davidson jump out as attractive options.

If the team is set on adding a right-hander and not sold on the available free agents, they could also wait for training camp cuts. While there is no guarantee that the right player would wind up on waivers, it’s also well within the realm of possibility. Robert Bortuzzo, Nate Prosser, Jake Dotchin, Steven Kampfer, Brad Hunt, Alex Biega, and Adam McQuaid – a former favorite of Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli in Boston – are just some of the names who could wind up on the waiver wire and fit in on the right side of the Edmonton blue line. It would not be a surprise to see the team sign multiple defenders to PTO’s and also keep an close eye on who gets cut from training camps.

Finally, Edmonton could simply stand pat and attempt to replace Sekera internally. On paper, it doesn’t seem like the Oilers have the pieces to do so effectively, but some of their defensive prospects have not yet been given the opportunity to show what they can do at the NHL level. Many will clamor for recent first-round pick Evan Bouchard to get a shot at sticking with the team. Although very talented – and a right shot – it would be asking a lot for the 18-year-old to step into the top pro game and succeed. It’s not unprecedented, but it is unlikely. Recent Swedish import Joel Persson, currently on loan to his SHL club, is a 24-year-old righty who could be an intriguing experiment and has more experience with the pro game. William Lagesson, on loan in Sweden last season but now back in North America, is a left-shot defenseman but played on the right side frequently during his college days at UMass and is a very safe defensive player who could be a stopgap. Elsewhere in the system, small puck-mover Ethan Bear and hulking Ryan Mantha are both righties who could provide some different style options alongside Lagesson in the AHL. Between these young possibilities and some veteran depth, the Oilers could opt to just let camp battles decide who steps into Sekera’s shoes.

The only thing that is for sure is that Sekera is not going to be suiting up for Edmonton any time soon. Whether the team finds a way to add a capable free agent, gets lucky on the waiver wire, or trusts their young depth, the Oilers will need someone to step up in his stead. An injury to a top defenseman is not how they wanted to begin the season, but the Oilers now have some time to figure it out before the puck drops on the new campaign.

Over The Cap: Detroit Red Wings

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Although the St. Louis Blues are dangerously close to the salary cap ceiling and the defending Stanley Cup champs of the past three years, the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins, are within an uncomfortable distance, the Detroit Red Wings are the only team who have surpassed the NHL’s $79.5MM limit at this point in time. When the team re-signed franchise center Dylan Larkin to a five-year, $30.5MM contract last week, his $6.1MM  salary boosted Detroit’s payroll for the coming season to $82.772MM for just 21 players. The Red Wings currently sit more than $3.2MM over the salary cap with a roster that contains just six defenseman. While the NHL CBA allows teams to surpass the cap by 10% in the off-season – up to $87.45MM – the Red Wings must clear enough space to begin the season under the cap.

Once the season is underway, the salary cap is unlikely to be much of an issue. Johan Franzen, who last played in October of 2015, has been sidelined with post-concussion symptoms for the past three seasons and is almost surely not going to return to the Detroit lineup. His $3.955MM contract on the long-term injured reserve will wipe out all of the Red Wings’ cap overages. Additionally, it remains a very real possibility that captain Henrik Zetterberg may also be on the shelf this year and possibly done with his hockey career altogether, with a nagging back injury reportedly making his availability over the final two years of his contract an “unknown”.  If Zetterberg doesn’t play, his $6MM cap hit added to Franzen’s on LTIR would give the Wings more than enough space.

However, injured reserve transactions cannot be made until after the official start of the NHL season. This has previously caused teams to trade away players unlikely to ever play again due to health, with the Chicago Blackhawks’ Marian Hossa as the latest example, even though their cap hits can be absorbed. A team tight against the cap, like Detroit, may struggle to manipulate their roster enough to fit those injured players under the cap on day one. As such, the easiest way that the team could get under the cap prior to the start of the season would be to find a taker for Franzen’s contract. The Wings would have to part with a pick or prospect, but may be able to unload the deal to a team far from the cap ceiling. If Detroit is certain that Zetterberg is also done, they could do the same with his contract, although a higher cap hit means parting with greater trade capital.

Barring an injured player salary dump, the Red Wings are likely left with the reality that they must trade a roster player in the next two months. The team may be able to sneak players like Martin Frk and Luke Witkowski through waivers before the season begins, but it would not result in enough savings to make a difference. Detroit would be unlikely to expose anyone else to waivers simply to clear space briefly. As such, it appears as if someone must go. While Red Wings fans and leadership alike might like the idea of shipping an aging defenseman like Niklas Kronwall or Jonathan Ericsson away or trying to sweet talk some team into taking on the behemoth contract of Frans Nielsen or Justin Abdelkader, it would be a surprise to see any team with interest in that foursome. The likes of Danny DeKeyser and Trevor Daley may also be immovable for a team rife with poor contracts. Instead, impending free agent Gustav Nyquist or two-way center Darren Helm are the most likely candidates, while a player like Luke Glendening heading elsewhere paired with some clever waiver action could do the trick. There is also a chance that, if he proves to be healthy, some team might be interested in Zetterberg.

It’s never a great situation for a team to be forced into trading away assets simply to become cap compliant for one day, but trading away an older player would nevertheless be a step in the right direction for a team that has never truly embraced a rebuild. Opening up salary with a trade, as well as an LTIR placement for Franzen, would allow the Red Wings some flexibility to test out some young players this season while building around their established young core, headlined by Larkin. The salary cap crunch could prove to be their ally long-term, but in the short-term the team is left with little option but to make a move and hope for the best.

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