World Championships: Austria, South Korea Promoted
Both Austria and South Korea have been promoted to Division 1 play for next year’s World Championships. After a tight and grueling tournament, Korea edged out the Ukraine in a shootout to take the final spot. South Korea will host the 2018 Olympics in PyeongChang, and regardless of NHL involvement, the spotlight will be on their country to make a mark in the hockey world. They apparently will not be outclassed too mightily, as they have steeply improved under the direction of former NHLers Jim Paek and Richard Park. As recently as 2009, Korea was in Division II and they had consistently been ranked lower than 30th in terms of world ranking.
Austria is less of a surprise, as they had been relegated only in 2015. The country boasts successful NHL players such as Michael Grabner, Thomas Vanek, and Michael Raffl. They obliterated Poland in their final game 11-0 to win the tournament, proving definitively that they belong at the next level. The losing-est country in each group at the Worlds will face relegation and take their places in Division 1A. A country being able to compete with the top talent in the world on international hockey’s biggest stage is a huge boost in visibility for prospects and increases viability for its players in terms of acquiring a sizable pro contract.
The major tournament will begin on May 5 and conclude on May 21. As always, Canada and the United States are at a bit of a disadvantage as NHLers tend to opt out of the competition following a grueling 82 games and potential playoff runs. Additionally, some of the best players will still be playing as the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue to grind along. Russia, Sweden, and Finland are heavy contenders, and Switzerland seemingly improves every year. The IIHF tournament is a wonderful time to view lesser known adult stars from overseas, and an impressive performance can mean lucrative playing opportunities. The games will be played in Paris, France and Cologne, Germany.
NHL Draft Lottery Results
The lottery balls were picked, the cards were flipped, and the New Jersey Devils will be selecting first in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. New Jersey was the winner of this year’s NHL Draft Lottery, jumping up four spots to take over the top pick. Against all odds, just an 8.5% chance at #1, they will now have their pick of all the top available prospects come Friday, June 23rd. The Philadelphia Flyers will pick second and the Dallas Stars will pick third, as the balls fell their way as well. Philadelphia leaped forward eleven slots and Dallas up five slots.
With three teams “winning” the lottery, it’s a tough pill to swallow for the Colorado Avalanche. One of the worst teams in recent memory, the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche finished the season with just 48 points, 21 less than the Vancouver Canucks at 29th. Yet, the Avs may miss out entirely on selecting a franchise player in a draft without a consensus star atop the charts. It’s also an unfortunate start for the expansion Vegas Golden Knights. Given the same odds at the third-worst team in the league, Vegas will instead select sixth and will be hard-pressed to find a player ready to jump immediately to the NHL, even though they’ll likely be hungry for help.
For Metropolitan Division foes New Jersey and Philadelphia, the question now becomes: who goes #1? Unlike the past two years – Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews – there is no consensus top prospect in 2017. Heading into 2016-17, Canadian forward Nolan Patrick, of the WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings, was considered the favorite to go first overall. However, after a season filled with injuries, that status is far from a sure thing. The last player to be taken #1 following a final junior season spent mostly on the sidelines was Gord Kluzak by the Boston Bruins in 1982, and Kluzak played only four full NHL seasons before his injuries caught up with him. Patrick did score 46 points in 33 games this season, and racked up 102 points in just 72 games last season, but as they say, “the most important ability is availability”. Flying up draft boards over the last year has been Swiss center Nico Hischier of the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads, and with questions lingering about Patrick, Hischier may wind up as 2017’s top pick. While Hischier doesn’t quite have the size and strength of Patrick, he has all the offensive ability. The swift scorer recorded 86 points in 57 games this season for Halifax and put on a show for Switzerland at the World Juniors.
It’s a difficult choice for the Devils, but one that GM Ray Shero and the New Jersey front office are happy to make. And GM Ron Hextall and the Flyers should be content with the runner-up.
NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing
For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.
At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:
Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%
TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.
What’s new to 2017? From Sportsnet:
For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).
The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.
The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.
This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.
This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.
But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.
Specifics:
Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC
Atlantic Division Snapshots: Pastrnak, Brassard, Red Wings
Despite a first round elimination at the hands of the Ottawa Senators, the 2016-17 campaign has to be considered a success for the Boston Bruins organization. The team returned to the postseason after back-to-back non-playoff seasons and showed tremendous resilience during their six-game series loss, nearly overcoming injuries to key regulars Brandon Carlo, David Krejci, Torey Krug and Adam McQuaid to push Ottawa to OT in game six. Perhaps the silver lining to the season was the development of young Czech winger David Pastnak, who in his third year saw a marked increase across the board in terms of offensive production, setting career-highs in goals (34) assists (36) and points (70). Pastrnak stuggled some in the postseason, finishing with just five shots on goal and regularly turning the puck over, but as Joe Haggerty of CSNNE writes, the 20-year-old will be a better player long term in part because of the playoff experience.
Pastrnak also wrapped up his ELC, making him a RFA this summer. Boston will have a decision to make; do they try to lock up the talented offensive right wing to a long term deal or employ a short term bridge contract to keep the AAV down? Should the team choose the latter, Haggerty speculates a deal similar to that given by Chicago to Artemi Panarin (two years, $12MM) could work for both sides. If Boston chooses the former, they might have to approach the value of the accord signed by Calgary winger Johnny Gaudreau last summer, in Haggerty’s estimation. According to Cap Friendly, the Bruins are projected to have around just $10MM in cap space available with Drew Stafford set to hit unrestricted free agency and Ryan Spooner joining Pastrnak as a RFA. The team should have room as it stands to accommodate a new Pastrnak contract regardless of whether it’s a lucrative long term pact or a shorter term bridge deal. Still, what Boston does will likely have a great impact on what other moves the team can make this summer to fill holes on the roster.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division:
- One of the second round’s more interesting subplots involves Ottawa center Derick Brassard facing his old team, the New York Rangers, and the player for whom he was acquired just last July, fellow pivot Mika Zibanejad. Expecting to contend for the playoffs in 2016-17, Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion wanted to add the more experienced and established Brassard to his lineup. It also didn’t hurt that the skilled center from Hull, Quebec is a proven playoff performer known in some circles as “Big Game Brass.” For their part, the Rangers needed to get bigger and younger and did so by adding the talented Zibanejad to the team. Neither player had the regular season they hoped – Brassard finished with just 14 goals and 39 points while Zibanejad missed time with a broken leg and scored 37 points in 56 contests. With scoring expected to be at a premium in the series between Ottawa and New York, it was widely felt whoever performed better between the two would give their team a significant edge. Well, after one game, Don Brennan of the Ottawa Sun has the two players even, though the Senators are up in the series. As Brennan noted, neither player registered a point and both finished with roughly 17 minutes of ice time. Brassard was credited with five shots on goal, Zibanejad with four. While it would be unfair to paint the winner of the series as also the winner of last summer’s trade, it’s evident the two players will be heavily relied upon to help their respective team advance to the Eastern Conference Final and at this point in the season that’s really all that matters.
- With their 25-season playoff streak broken, the Detroit Red Wings enter the offseason with a lot of work to do to reshape their roster into a contender, and without the resources (i.e. cap space) to easily tackle the challenge. In all probability, the team will be forced seek roster improvement via the trade market and with limited chips the team can afford to move, it’s likely Detroit will have to deal one of their starting-caliber goalies, if for no other reason than to open up much-needed cap space. Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press expressed the same belief in a recent mailbag feature. As the scribe notes, the Wings are currently projected to have less than $6MM in cap space with key forwards Andreas Athanasiou and Tomas Tatar scheduled to be RFA’s. The offseason goalie market is expected to be full of starting options, with Pittsburgh likely to entertain a trade of Marc-Andre Fleury rather than risk losing Matt Murray in the expansion draft. Ben Bishop, Brian Elliott, Jonathan Bernier and Ryan Miller headline the UFA crop of netminders and could represent viable starting options for any team looking for a #1. Those factors will hamstring the Red Wings in their attempt to move either Jimmy Howard or Petr Mrazek in return for fair value. In all likelihood, the team will have to be satisfied primarily with cap relief as opposed to acquiring young assets to further their retooling effort. Although St. James does offer up one intriguing possibility, noting that current Stars GM Jim Nill, formerly an assistant GM in Detroit, knows Mrazek and Howard well from his time with the Wings and could pursue one in an effort to upgrade his options between the pipes.
Goalies Wanted: Teams With Desperate Need
Goaltending is perhaps the most under-appreciated position in all the world of sport. While it is true that a team doesn’t need a dominant goaltender to win a Stanley Cup or even compete for one, a poor performance by a tender can absolutely destroy a season or a series. There are still a number of teams with question marks in net, and the premier talent isn’t exactly in abundance. The expansion draft further complicates matters for a number of teams, who will need to make a determination as to who will be the tender going forward. Here are three teams which desperately need solutions to their issues in the crease this off-season.
Winnipeg Jets – The team had three goaltenders this season. None of them played well. Michael Hutchinson is a dime-a-dozen depth goalie who is likely to be exposed, and the former starter Ondrej Pavelec is without a contract and never earned another. The 23 year-old Connor Hellebuyck will be protected, and shows great promise. That said, his .907 save percentage and overall streakiness left a lot to be desired. Perhaps many of his struggles can be blamed on the lackluster defensive efforts in Winnipeg, but will Hellebuyck be ready to ascend to the next level next season? If not, will Jets fans be content with another year without hockey in mid-April? GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has always been reserved in terms of transactions, but perhaps now is the time for decisive action. In the ultra-competitive Central division, the Jets need to find a way to win tight games.
Calgary Flames – Brian Elliott looked like he had finally put it together under new coach Glen Gulutzan in the new year. And then it all fell apart. His first-round series against the Ducks was shockingly bad (.880) – he made simple point shots complete adventures and lacked any rebound control. With his team’s season on the line in Game 4, he ceded only one abysmal goal before being pulled. In light of his consistent struggles in St. Louis prior to his Calgary excursion, it’s fair to assume he will start as a backup elsewhere next year. Actual backup Chad Johnson, also not under contract, will likely be headed elsewhere. This team needs two goalies, and it’s difficult to foresee a route that doesn’t involve a trade. Marc-Andre Fleury will still be available, and Ben Bishop is sure to tempt many. The starter situation needs to be sorted immediately, and if need be, they can always circle back to Johnson for a short-term backup deal.
Dallas Stars – How can you spend so much money on goaltending and still have none of it? Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen. Niemi posted a .892 save percentage for $4.5 MM, and Lehtonen posted a .902 for $5 MM. The defense has been shored up (to a degree), but the goals still hit the twine with depressing frequency. With one season remaining on either goalie’s deal, one needs to be shipped out this off-season in favor of a more cost-effective (and hopefully generally effective) netminder. Under a new coach, a resurgence from either is possible, but it seems dangerous to gamble on that possibility. It’s possible that Vegas might want an extra large contract to hit the cap floor or veteran backup with a ring, but with the better options likely to be available, that seems unlikely. Perhaps a financially struggling franchise would be willing to take on an expensive backup, if the deal were sweetened.
Mattias Janmark Signs One-Year Extension With Dallas Stars
The Dallas Stars have come to an agreement with forward Mattias Janmark on a one-year contract extension worth $700K. The 24-year old missed the entire 2016-17 season due to a knee injury, but had returned to practice and should be ready for training camp. He was set to become a restricted free agent for the first time this summer.
Janmark was originally acquired—along with several other pieces—from the Detroit Red Wings in exchange for Erik Cole at the 2015 trade deadline, and made his Dallas debut last season. His 29 points in 73 games as a rookie made quite an impact among the Stars faithful, as he looked like a core piece for many years. The young forward had played well at both ends of the rink, and though was not a physical presence—he registered just four hits over the whole season—did work hard to retrieve pucks and could fit into many spots in a lineup.
He’ll now try to return to that level of play for the Stars next season, after an incredibly difficult season in Dallas. The team went 34-37-11 without him this year, a 30 point fall from their Western Conference-leading 2015-16 record. With a new (old) coach in Ken Hitchcock, it remains to be seen how Janmark will be used. With the degenerative knee injury hopefully behind him, he’ll be a big boost to the club next year.
Morning Notes: Brouwer, Jodoin, Seguin
Eric Francis writes for the Calgary Herald that Troy Brouwer is expected to be one of the forwards exposed in the upcoming expansion draft for the Flames, and with it could be leaving the organization almost as soon as he joined it. Francis points out that Vegas GM George McPhee has traded for Brouwer once in the past, acquiring him for a first round pick from Chicago in the summer of 2011.
If you’d been following along, it was clear the Flames couldn’t protect Brouwer after acquiring Curtis Lazar at the deadline, giving them at least seven young forwards that would be ahead of him on the list. While it doesn’t mean for certain that the Flames will submit their protection list on June 17th with Brouwer exposed, it certainly looks that way right now. The 31-year old is coming off his worst point total of his career, but still would add a veteran presence to a weak Vegas squad should he be selected.
- The Montreal Canadiens announced today that Clement Jodoin has chosen to leave the organization after his latest stint. Jodoin has been an associate coach for the team for two different five-year periods, and also worked as the Hamilton Bulldogs’ head coach and in the Canadiens’ player development department over the years. New head coach Claude Julien will meet with his other assistants in the next few days to decide what’s next for the coaching staff.
- Tyler Seguin apparently was playing with a damaged labrum in his right shoulder for much of the season, and the team announced today that he underwent surgery yesterday to repair it. His recovery timeline is set at four months, meaning he’ll be lucky to be ready for the start of training camp next fall. Seguin was criticized for his play much of this season, but still ended up with 72 points despite the injury. He’ll be expected to take another step forward and help the Stars return to the playoffs next season, or there may be even bigger shakeups in Dallas next summer.
Central Notes: McDonough, Seguin, Nashville – St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks president and CEO John McDonough is blunt in his assessment of the Blackhawks to the Chicago Sun-Times Mark Lazerus: they were steamrolled. Said to be “steaming” at their quick demise, McDonough is confident that general manager Stan Bowman can improve upon the latest first round exit for the only franchise in the salary cap era to win three Stanley Cups. Though happy with what Bowman and coach Joel Quenneville have done in the past, he tasks the Blackhawk bosses with building upon the talent that’s already there. Blackhawk fans can take solace in the fact that McDonough sees a lot of gas in the tank for a team many think may be worn out, but McDonough says that the organization is reviewing everything to make sure the Hawks fortunes are on an upward trend.
- The Dallas Morning-News’ Mike Heika answers fans by indicating that the Stars won’t consider trading Tyler Seguin–unless they believe he’s not the right match with Jamie Benn. Heika believes that the Stars are hoping for new bench boss Ken Hitchcock to have a role in making Seguin a dominant two-way center. With an expensive contract, but still only 25 years of age, the Stars aren’t about to give up on the center. He also believes that Seguin will be motivated to take the next step as a player and sees Seguin being “very determined” to improve after fighting through injury the past few seasons.
- It’s the battle of goaltenders when the Nashville Predators and St. Louis Blues meet up in the second round of the playoffs. NHL.com’s Shawn Roarke writes that the goaltending is just one of many storylines as the two Central division foes meet for the first time in playoff action. Roarke sees lead time as another factor, as both teams enjoyed leading their respective first round opponent for long stretches of time. The Tennessean’s Joe Rexrode believes the Predators should win the series, but is far from issuing a guarantee about it. Rexrode sees St. Louis’ staunch defense giving the Preds some problems while he openly wonders if the inconsistent Predators during the regular season could return for a playoff encore, disappearing just as quickly as they appeared to remind fans why they were preseason favorites. Meanwhile, St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Jeff Gordon echoes a number of Rexrode’s insights, adding that the return of Colin Wilson for the Preds and matching Nashville’s depth serves as some difficulties St. Louis might encounter.
Snapshots: Bunnaman, Backman, Stone
The Philadelphia Flyers have signed Connor Bunnaman to an entry-level deal after his big season for the Kitchener Rangers. The fourth-round pick from last summer scored 37 goals in 64 games and showed off his potential as a power forward.
Now just 19, Bunnaman will have to return to the OHL next year should he not make the Flyers out of camp. After leading a pretty loaded Rangers team in goals, the Flyers hope he’ll push his offensive boundaries even further next season.
- Mattias Backman will not be playing for the Hershey Bears in the AHL playoffs. He’s left the team, and as Sean Shapiro tweets he’s headed back to Sweden and is “pretty much done” as a Dallas Stars prospect. Backman was loaned at the deadline from Texas to Hershey, but will now return to the SHL where he had such success. Just 24-years old, there is still a chance he’ll return to the NHL some day, but for now shouldn’t be counted on as part of the Stars’ future.
- Like Kris Versteeg earlier today, Michael Stone told Pat Steinberg of Sportsnet that he thinks Calgary is a really good fit, and would be open to re-signing there. While no player is going to chew out his team on their way to free agency, Stone is right when he says it’s a good fit. He slid nicely into their defensive group after being acquired prior to the deadline, and with Dennis Wideman coming off the books could easily fit there on a longer term. With Calgary needing goaltending above all else, inking Stone to an extension before he becomes an unrestricted free agent would free their plates for the real task at hand.
Would U.S. Ratings Be High For An All Canadian Team Final?
With five out of six Canadian teams in the NHL playoffs, an interesting question was posed by Sportsnet’s Scott Moore: “Ask NBC how they would feel about an Edmonton-Montreal Stanley Cup final.”
This isn’t to besmirch the great Canadian cities of Edmonton or Montreal or their fans. Instead, it’s one of several articles focusing on how Canada is experiencing a rush of hockey pride with Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto all representing the country that gave us all hockey. Sportsnet expects a boon in ratings as a result while announcing blog Awful Announcing looked at how Sportsnet took a bath on ratings last season when not one Canadian team was represented in the playoffs. Viewership fell nearly fifty percent during last year’s playoffs, and heads rolled as a result. Much of the article that contained Moore’s quotes were from the New York Times.
Now with five teams in the playoffs, what are the expectations? With huge markets Toronto and Montreal in as well as dynamic young stars like Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, and Johnny Gaudreau all playing for Canadian teams, it’s certainly a bright future for ratings in Canada. It’s a well earned reward for suffering through a Canadian-less playoff last season.
More interesting though was the question posed about American ratings–should it be an all Canadian tilt: would Americans watch? After all, hockey isn’t exactly rivaling the NBA, NFL, or MLB in ratings or television contracts in the US. Last season’s San Jose-Pittsburgh Stanley Cup Final doesn’t inspire hope, either. Anthony Crupi of AdAge mocked the numbers, writing that a paltry four million viewers tuned it, making it the third worst Final rating since 2006 when NBC grabbed the rights. Crupi continues:
By way of comparison, the blowout-happy National Basketball Association finals on ABC are averaging a whopping 18.1 million viewers, a 10.4 household rating and a 6.5 in the demo through the first five games.
Crupi adds that poor scheduling and other sports distractions didn’t help, but his writing highlights what Moore called a concern for NBC. Would Americans tune in if it was an all-Canadian matchup?
Honestly, it depends on the matchup. Edmonton-Toronto would pit McDavid against Matthews. That’s certainly star appeal–should the NHL market it correctly. And that’s what it boils down to-marketing. At this current juncture, the NHL has a handful of young, rising stars who could rival the old Wayne Gretzky–Mario Lemieux arguments that dominated hockey in the late 80’s and early 90’s. Further, regardless of a team’s location, it’s about who is on the roster that ultimately matters. Forbes’ Alisha Grauso pointed out that last year’s Final was exciting–it ultimately suffered from bad scheduling. Additinally, Grauso wrote that hockey fans don’t watch to see hated teams lose. In this case, it wouldn’t draw an extra few million fans because they despise Sidney Crosby and the Penguins. Grauso’s point is that things are as bad as they seem.
So would Americans watch an all Canadian Final? I believe they would. But again, it would be more about the league properly scheduling, and marketing its stars instead of praying a big market team makes it again. Of course, teams with rich histories will always draw well. But it boils down to giving the game a chance to shine on a national stage–something the NHL has struggled to do for a long time.