Declining Greatness: The Case For Jarome Iginla
A few weeks ago Zach Leach profiled one of the greatest goal scorers in NHL history, Jarome Iginla. He started the piece by saying that Iginla was “a legend with very bad luck” and though he was talking about Iginla’s career, and how close (but yet so far) he has come on several occasions to being in the right place at the right time, he could have easily meant something else that teams should consider when looking at the 618-goal man this trade deadline.
No, it’s not his age—the fact that he’ll turn 40 this July is something everyone should be aware of, but not what this piece will be about. Not his cap hit either; the $5.33MM number is a tough pill to swallow for sure, but at least it expires at the end of the year. It’s his shooting percentage. Sure, Iginla might be a step slower than he has been in the past, and perhaps this legend is ready to ride off into the sunset. It’s just that there may be something left in the tank. 
First of all, he’s playing on Colorado which has been a deathtrap for offensive players all season. Whether it’s the coaching of Jared Bednar, the horrible possession metrics almost everyone has put up, or some toxic attitude leaking down from the front office, nearly everyone has been underperforming. Matt Duchene is on a 52 point pace, which would be the lowest he’s recorded for a season where he played more than 70 games. Gabriel Landeskog may not crack 40, well below his career average. Even Nathan MacKinnon, who is currently leading the team in scoring doesn’t look like he’ll improve much on his 52 point effort from a year ago, in which he played only 72 games.
Iginla is right there along with them, scoring just 16 points in 58 games. But what do you expect from a guy who has lined up beside John Mitchell and Blake Comeau for most of the season, a duo that has a combined point total of 15. He’s also been given the least amount of icetime of his career, playing just 14:45 per night. Perhaps this is just because he’s no good anymore, but there may be a silver lining.
Yes, that’s the shooting percentage which currently sits at 6.1%, less than half of his career rate. He’s still generating shots, with 114 on the year but just nothing is going in for him. He’s on pace to almost match the shot total from each of the last two years, when he had 29 and 22 goals respectively, and doing it with much worse linemates. No, he’ll never be a defensive presence that drives possession, but he can be a goal scoring threat even at his advanced age. If he sat at his career shooting percentage we’d be talking about a 15-goal scorer instead, despite Mitchell and Comeau still being alongside him.
Playoff experience can’t exactly be quantified, but anecdotally the game slows down in the postseason. When the whistles are put away, a bit more obstruction takes place and physical goal scoring threats are extremely important. Iginla has scored 37 playoff goals in just 81 games, a better per-game pace than Sidney Crosby. It’s not that he’ll continue to be a legendary goal scoring threat, just that he may still be a fine secondary option for a team looking for some depth on the wing. He won’t cost much, and he might just get that one last chance at a Stanley Cup.
Injury Notes: Marner, Senators, Johnson
The Maple Leafs escaped with two points last night against Winnipeg despite having to kill an Auston Matthews penalty in overtime, and got some more good news this morning. Though practice was cancelled for the majority of the team, Mitch Marner hit the ice and looked no worse for wear since sustaining a shoulder injury last week. Though coach Mike Babcock says he won’t play tomorrow night against the New York Rangers, he has a chance at playing on Saturday.
That would be a nice boost for the Maple Leafs who are actually just five points out of first place in the Atlantic Division. The continued brilliance of their rookies was on display again last night as Matthews recorded three assists in the victory.
- The Leafs will be without Connor Carrick however, who suffered an upper-body injury when he collided awkwardly with Mathieu Perreault and left the game. Alexey Marchenko will slot into the lineup in his place for the first time since being acquired off waivers from the Detroit Red Wings earlier this month. Carrick’s timeline for return is unknown.
- Pierre Dorion told the Ottawa Citizen that both Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone could play as early as Sunday, which is extremely important news for the Ottawa Senators. Getting the two wingers back would be a boost to a group that had trouble scoring last night in a 2-1 victory. The team generated just 23 shots on goal and needed Kyle Turris and Erik Karlsson—their two remaining offensive options—to each light the lamp in the win.
- Erik Johnson will return to the Colorado Avalanche lineup on Saturday according to Terry Frei of the Denver Post. The big defenseman has been out since the beginning of December and is finally skating without the non-contact jersey. As the Avalanche prepare for a busy trade deadline, Johnson looks like he’ll remain in Denver for the time being. His long contract and partial no-trade clause would make him difficult to move in-season even if there were people impressed enough by his return.
- Ryan Callahan had another surgery on his hip yesterday, and is out indefinitely for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Callahan only played in 18 games for the club this season and now sounds like he might be out for the remainder of the year. While he’s not an integral part of their offense, losing a player of his experience is never a good thing. About to turn 32, Callahan is signed for another three seasons in Tampa Bay at a cap-hit of $5.8MM. Steve Yzerman said just a few days ago that he was operating under the assumption that Callahan and Steven Stamkos would be back at some point along with their cap-hits, and perhaps this clears that up.
Deadline Primer: Colorado Avalanche
With the trade deadline now just a week away, we continue to take a closer look at each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?
The Colorado Avalanche are a mess. Their season began with a coach walking out on them just two months before the start of the season, and has gone downhill from there. Now with just 35 points through 58 games they are a lock for last place in the NHL and are about to pull the trigger on the latest rebuild.
Even though much of their team is still young enough to be considered developing, GM Joe Sakic has said that there are very few untouchables. It’s time for a reset in Mile High, and the deadline looks to be the starting point.
Record
16-39-3, 7th in Central Division
Deadline Status
Seller
Deadline Cap Space
$3.38MM – full-season cap hit, 47/50 contracts per CapFriendly.
Draft Picks
2017: COL 1st, COL 2nd, COL 4th, NYR 4th, COL 5th, COL 6th, COL 7th
2018: COL 1st, COL 2nd, COL 3rd, COL 4th, COL 5th, COL 6th, COL 7th
Trade Chips
The Avalanche are one of just a few sellers (perhaps just two) that have appeared so far, and it may benefit them greatly. Multiple teams have already been in contact on Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog, and the pair of young forwards look like some of the biggest fishes on the market this week. But it doesn’t end there for the bottom-dwelling Avs. 
Jarome Iginla is almost certain to be dealt, as he’s expressed his want to go somewhere to try and win a Stanley Cup. While he doesn’t provide the same type of offense he once did—Iginla only has seven goals and 16 points this season—many teams might think that is just a symptom of the team around him. Indeed, he is just a year removed from scoring 22 goals for the Avalanche in 2015-16. When you’ve scored 618 goals in the NHL, plus another 37 in the playoffs a team is going to want you for the experience you bring. Look for Iginla to be dealt on the deadline itself for a draft pick.
The team also has Rene Bourque and Patrick Wiercioch drawing calls, with both likely costing very little at the deadline. Mikhail Grigorenko and Carl Soderberg are interesting options up front, but one may be too young to deal and the other too expensive. It’s all on the table for Sakic, who listed just Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Tyson Jost as the untouchables on his squad.
If Sakic really wants to blow it up, perhaps he’ll even consider the idea of trading Tyson Barrie, the puck moving defenseman that may have been at the core of the Roy departure. The Avalanche signed him to a four-year deal this summer, but has seen his defensive play deteriorate even further.
Five Players To Watch: C Matt Duchene, LW Gabriel Landeskog, RW Jarome Iginla, D Patrick Wiercioch, F Carl Soderberg
Team Needs
1) Young Defensemen – The Avalanche lost Nikita Zadorov for the season recently, but his development into an NHL defender has brightened up what has been a nightmare season. The team will be looking for more players like him to build around and finally fix their defensive problems. Francois Beauchemin and Fedor Tyutin won’t be around when this team is ready to contend again, and Erik Johnson will likely be a shell of himself—he’s signed through the 2022-23 season, but is about to turn 29 and surely won’t continue at his level into his mid-thirties.
2) Draft Picks – The team needs to restock its cupboards and though this draft is considered to have a weak top-end, there is a lot of talent throughout the first round especially at the center position. The Avalanche have set themselves up to be almost guaranteed a shot at one of Nolan Patrick, Nico Hischier or Gabriel Vilardi, but could also add depth with some first round picks if they deal off their big assets.
3) Prospects – The other option is just to trade for already drafted prospects and hope they develop the way is expected. Sakic has reportedly asked for each of these three things in a trade for Duchene, essentially hedging his bets across all three avenues. For a team that was just out of the playoffs the last couple of seasons, it doesn’t have to be a decade long rebuild. A quick turnaround isn’t guaranteed, but with a legitimate #1 center in MacKinnon and solid goaltending, a few prospects making a big jump could push them back into a playoff race as soon as 2018-19.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Can The Colorado Avalanche Be Fixed?
Patrick Roy quit unexpectedly. The team has just 35 points. And Nikita Zadorov is out for the year after getting hurt in practice. The 2016-17 season has been an unmitigated disaster for the Avalanche and as the season slips away, there has to be a new blueprint for a once proud organization that once won two Stanley Cups in six seasons. Though that feels like a lifetime ago, hope isn’t all lost as the Avs have several pieces in place to build around. The real problem is what route is best when it comes to rebuilding a team in shambles?
The Denver Post’s Mike Chambers indicates that the Avs are in full sell mode. That’s pretty obvious when Executive Vice President of Hockey Operations/General Manager Joe Sakic has been honest in his assessment of making players available. It’s been widely reported that the asking price is high for anyone the Avs are willing to trade, whether it be Matt Duchene, or Gabriel Landeskog. Chambers includes Jarome Iginla, Fedor Tyutin, John Mitchell, Andreas Martinsen Rene Bourque, and Cody Goloubef as pieces to trade off since they’re all set to be unrestricted free agents.
Though they could fetch a number of draft picks and prospects, especially if Landeskog or Duchene are moved, it might be something else the Avs should look at. Especially since the return on those trades are absolutely crucial.
I asked about Joe Sakic’s role in all of this back in December, and nearly 73% of our readers thought he should be shown the door. But is it that easy? Would firing Sakic really change a team in turmoil? If anything, perhaps Sakic goes out and instead of green lighting someone from the “glory days” when he played, grabs a knowledgeable former general manager or up and coming assistant that could help sort out the mess. Outside of opinion pieces, there hasn’t been anything to suggest that Sakic is feeling heat. As one of the leaders of the organization, hiring another pair of eyes to help, whether it be in a scouting or management capacity, would help Sakic and the organization most. Especially if there is no urgency from ownership when it comes to firing him.
Aside from the 2013-14 season, the Avalanche haven’t seen a lot of success since getting bounced during the 2010 playoffs. Since then, they’ve only returned once, and that one time was with Sakic in charge. Even if he begins selling off assets to rebuild, it takes keen eyes to pull of a successful rebuild. They take time, patience, and a lot of smarts. Look at Toronto.
Fixing the Avalanche begins with ownership taking a good hard look at what task is in front of them. Keeping Sakic works if he’s surrounded with more experience. Otherwise, it’s nothing more than an organization living in the past while flailing in the present, and inevitably, the future.
Evening Snapshots: Kings, Maple Leafs, Avalanche
News and notes from around the NHL this evening:
- The Los Angeles Kings seem content to go with goaltender Peter Budaj during the playoff run stretch, reports LA Kings Insider Jon Rosen. Kings head coach Darryl Sutter articulated that the upcoming deadline had no effect on injured goaltender Jonathan Quick‘s recovery timeline—the organization will not start Quick earlier than planned just to see if they need to add something at the deadline. This implies that the Kings will not seek additional goaltending help. Overall, the Kings have to be satisfies with Budaj’s performance so far. He’s gone 26-19-3 with a .916 SV% and a 2.14 GAA, and a league-leading 7 shutouts. Budaj, however, has lost 5 of his last six, though peeled off five straight wins—with three shutouts—before that.
- Toronto Maple Leafs forward Brooks Laich indicated to media today that he would like to go to a playoff contender if the Maple Leafs do not plan to use him this season. Laich has spent the entire season in the AHL with the Toronto Marlies, and has seen other forwards—Josh Leivo and Frederik Gauthier—receive callups to the big league. Part of the reason that Laich remains in the AHL is that the Leafs have been relatively injury-free this year. The organization has had little need for AHL replacements, and as a result veteran players like Laich get left behind. While one cannot blame an organization for wanting to test out its younger prospects, Laich’s feelings are sure to gather sympathy with the front office. The Maple Leafs have already traded away rarely-used forward Peter Holland, and could do the same to Brooks Laich.
- Colorado Avalanche defenseman Nikita Zadorov is out for the remainder of the season, the team announced today. Zadorov hurt his ankle today in practice after tangling up with forward Mikko Rantanen. The 21 year-old defensive prospect has 0G and 10A for the Avalanche while averaging just over 19 minutes a night. With Colorado mired in last place—the next worst team is 12 points ahead of them—there is no reason to rush Zadorov back.
Injury Notes: Goalie Pads, Stastny, Dumba
Since February 4th, every goaltender in the league has had to wear the new tighter fitting pants in games. While some goalies like Robin Lehner and Pekka Rinne have come out in favor of the new style, others are having difficulty adjusting. Eric Engels of Sportsnet spoke to both Carey Price and Al Montoya about them, who told him they are considering sending pictures of the new bruises they’ve suffered because of the lack of protection. Price in particular showed Engels that he got hit in the inside of his thigh with a shot, where there is almost no protection.
While it’s unclear if the two would actually send the pictures, it is a concern as the league moves forward with smaller equipment. With shots becoming harder and harder in the game, and players moving at a faster pace, protection of goaltenders is still a huge point of contention for the NHL and NHLPA. While the league (and many players) wants higher scoring and believe that reducing equipment would help that, safety is still of a high importance. When a player of Price’s caliber speaks out, the player’s union is sure to listen.
- Paul Stastny is back in the lineup tonight for the St. Louis Blues after missing the previous four games with a lower-body injury. He’ll skate with Alex Steen and Vladimir Tarasenko tonight on a line that has found tremendous success in the past. Patrik Berglund will be the second line center besides Jaden Schwartz and Magnus Paajarvi, while Ivan Barbashev—who has impressed in his short time with the club—will move to the wing beside Jori Lehtera.
- Mathew Dumba, who hasn’t played since February 10th is physically ready to play according to head coach Bruce Boudreau. The coach hasn’t committed to letting him play tomorrow against the Chicago Blackhawks, and since Jonas Brodin has returned recently he could play it a little slowly with Dumba to make sure he is at no risk of re-injuring himself.
- Mike Chambers of the Denver Post reports that Erik Johnson and Rene Bourque both skated today at Colorado Avalanche practice. Both players were in red non-contact sweaters, but it is a good sign for them going forward. Bourque has just 13 points this season, but could be someone who could fill a bottom-six role on a contender if he can prove he’s healthy enough to contribute.
New York Islanders May Be Buyers At Deadline
If Garth Snow had told the New York Islanders fans a couple of months ago that they might be buyers at the deadline, he’d likely be laughed out of the building. The early season struggles of the Islanders had people talking about their decisions to let Frans Nielsen and Kyle Okposo walk in the offseason, only to give a huge contract to Andrew Ladd. Through December 18th, the $38.5MM man had just seven points and looked like one of the biggest busts of the 2016 free agent class. The team was floundering near the bottom of the conference, and it looked like a lost season for the Islanders. 
In the 20 games since, Ladd has 10 goals and 13 points, looking more like the consistent goal-scoring threat he has been throughout his career. The team has turned it around as well, and climbed right back into the East playoff race. At 62 points they’ve hopped over the Philadelphia Flyers and are just one behind the Maple Leafs for the final playoff spot.
That’s what has new head coach Doug Weight and Snow looking at possibly adding at the deadline instead of selling, according to Arthur Staple of Newsday. Weight—who is still an assistant GM after moving from the front office to the bench when the Isles fired Jack Capuano—especially seems to think they can do something, telling Staple “we’re in a position where we can really do something.”
Staple lists Patrick Sharp, Radim Vrbata and Martin Hanzal as rentals that could help the Islanders over the last third of the season and all three would be solid additions. Lacking secondary scoring after John Tavares and whoever he ends up playing with on a nightly basis, Sharp and Vrbata would add some ability on the wings. Hanzal, a much discussed target heading into the deadline, would solidify the center ice position and allow Casey Cizikas to move back down into a more familiar role.
Whether the Islanders decide to buy will likely depend on the next five games (one of which they’re losing 2-0 at the time of this writing) and where they sit when they shut down between February 26-March 1. If they can keep pace with the rest of the conference, they will likely decide that the window is now with Tavares and end up adding for the short or mid term. It seems unlikely that they would get into the Matt Duchene sweepstakes, but it is definitely a possibility. They do have a solid group of young defenders, the thing the Avalanche seem to covet most.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Where Do The Dallas Stars Go From Here?
In a couple pieces written about the Dallas Stars, The Dallas Morning News’ Mike Heika and Fan Rag’s Carolyn Wilke both look at what has gone wrong with the Stars and how best to reverse course. Heika calls them “toast,” recognizing that a 1-7-0 run sunk the Stars chances at the playoffs. Heika notes that though the Stars have missed the playoffs six out of the last eight seasons, it isn’t often in February that their season obituary could be written. While some fans may think it’s unfair to write the Stars off so early, he shows that unless the Stars go 18-5 the rest of the way, it’s pretty hopeless.
Heika offers advice, noting that the Stars need to evaluate their young defensemen, determining which ones should be kept since the expansion draft is around the corner. He also believes they need to assess their best veterans, seeing if they should take a flier on Ales Hemsky, Lauri Korpikoski, Adam Cracknell and Jiri Hudler beyond this season. It would also be best if the Stars chose one goaltender between Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen since it’s leading to a financial impasse.
Wilke takes a different look, wondering if the coaching staff is to blame, and takes the approach that Ruff simply cannot be the sole blamed for the season they’ve endured. A roster decimated by injury didn’t help matters, she writes, but Ruff can still shoulder some blame with his playing decisions and deployment, not to mention an anemic penalty kill. But going in Ruff’s favor is a lack of coaches on the market, none of whom seem a good fit for the young and fast Stars. Wilke sees the Stars selling off and warns fans to wave goodbye to some of their favorite players. She also asks some questions about Jim Nill’s job.
PHR’s Glen Miller wondered a few weeks ago if the Stars are going to follow in Minnesota and Columbus’ footsteps, finding success only a year after a throw away season. Injury is certainly the greatest factor in Dallas’ fall. Further, coaches or front office executives don’t suddenly become geniuses or buffoons over one season’s time. Nill sat a little too long on the goalie issue, as Wilke points out, but without Nill, the Stars don’t have last season’s successes. His aggressiveness and eye for talent, especially with prospects, will pay dividends for the Stars. Further, looking at Jim Rutherford, who made a few tweaks to a Penguins roster and shuttled a coach, suddenly found himself hoisting a Stanley Cup six months later.
There is no secret formula. Teams like the Detroit Red Wings have shown that not everything can last forever, especially with a loyalty that has been one of the strongest in the NHL Rutherford’s example shows that sometimes it takes a few changes to win. Others, like the Avalanche, struggle to find success no matter how many changes they make.
The Stars have the roster to compete. It may just be a few Rutherford-like moves that shows this season was an anomaly.
Mikhail Grigorenko, Patrick Wiercioch In Play As Deadline Approaches
On the latest installment of Insider Trading on TSN, the panel—which includes Darren Dreger, Bob McKenzie and Pierre LeBrun—discussed several topics going into the last two weeks before the NHL Trade Deadline. While LeBrun relays that some front office members around the league believe that Colorado GM Joe Sakic will wait until the summer for any possible Matt Duchene move, Dreger reports that there are other names in play.
Both Mikhail Grigorenko and Patrick Wiercioch are mentioned by name, the first we’ve heard one these two directly. The two weren’t listed in Sakic’s “untouchables” recently, and come as little surprise as the team looks to rebuild from the disaster that has been this season.
Grigorenko especially will come with some interest, due to his young age—he turns 23 on May 16th—and former first-round pick status. Since going 12th overall in 2012 though, Grigorenko has failed to deliver on his promise of a big top-six center. Instead, he’s recorded just 18 goals and 59 points in 193 games.
Wiercioch signed a one-year deal with the Avalanche after not receiving a qualifying offer from the Ottawa Senators last summer, and has put up numbers similar to those he did in Ottawa between 2012-15. While he only plays 17 minutes a night, he does have 11 points in 43 games (all at even strength) and has a bit of upside for a team needing a depth defenseman for a playoff run. Both players are restricted free agents at the end of the season and eligible for arbitration.
McKenzie also mentioned that Duchene is seen as a winger by many teams around the league, who think he can perform better there than in the middle. It will be interesting to see if his market develops as a center or a winger as we get closer to the deadline, or if Sakic will have to wait until the summer to deal him to a team willing to slot him into the middle for 2017-18.
Snapshots: Hurricanes, Lazar, NHL In Sweden
The Carolina Hurricanes could be in a position to make some noise in the trade market.
Young and skilled defensemen are often key pieces in making trades, and the Hurricanes have stocked their system with them over the past few drafts. The club’s last three first round picks have been highly-ranked defenders: Haydn Fleury, Noah Hanifin, and Jake Bean. They have also selected Justin Faulk, Brett Pesce, and Jaccob Slavin in lower rounds.
Because of this depth of solid defensemen, GM Ron Francis told ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun that he’s willing to deal from a position of strength to build up other parts of his roster. That could place the Hurricanes as a possible destination for either Matt Duchene or Gabriel Landeskog, seeing as the Avalanche desperately need to improve their defensive core. LeBrun also speculated that Francis could try pry William Nylander out of Toronto, but doubted that the Maple Leafs would have any interest in moving Nylander to improve their blue line.
In addition to the Avalanche and Maple Leafs, LeBrun suggests the Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Detroit Red Wings, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Winnipeg Jets could all have interest in the Hurricanes’ young blue-liners.
Regardless of whether or not the Hurricanes can land a stud offensive player at the deadline, they’re well-placed to make moves over the summer as other teams look to improve their defense.
- Despite rumors to the contrary, Curtis Lazar has not asked for a trade from the Ottawa Senators. Lazar’s agent met with GM Pierre Dorion last weekend, after which the player re-iterated that he wants to stay in Ottawa. After Dorion suggested that Lazar needs to “sink a few ‘four foot putts’,” Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen quoted Lazar as saying even those “almost feel like a home run right now.” The struggling young forward feels that he needs to get back in the lineup and start “feeling good about [him]self.” Lazar has just one assist in 29 NHL games this season, and four points in 13 AHL games.
- Speaking of Ottawa, the Senators will be spending some time outdoors next season, according to Sportsnet’s John Shannon. Pending NHL and PA approval, the Senators will face off against Colorado in Stockholm twice this coming November. It’s been widely speculated that those could be outdoors. Even if those end up being indoors, Shannon reports that the Senators owner has confirmed that the club has an agreement to host an outdoor game in December 2017. It remains to be seen if that will played at Parliament Hill as part of the celebration for Canada’s 150th anniversary.