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Snapshots: Saunders, Schedule, Spaling

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The hockey world mourns today as it was reported earlier that broadcasting titan John Saunders passed away at the age of 61. Saunders had worked for ESPN for nearly 30 years, and was one the biggest influences on hockey broadcasting in the United States. An all-star defenseman growing up in Montreal, Saunders went on to play at Western Michigan University from 1974-76. Saunders was a founding board member of the Jimmy V Foundation, a charity that has raised over $90MM for cancer research.

Many fans in the United States and across the world would not have understood, or appreciated hockey without John Saunders, and here at PHR we would like to extend our deepest condolences to his family.

  • The NHL released its preseason schedule today, and among the notable games are two that will be held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, the home of the upcoming expansion franchise. The Los Angeles Kings will play back-to-back nights against the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche on October 7-8th to give the fans there a taste of what is to come. Also opening its doors for the first time will be the Edmonton Oilers’ new home, as the team will play the Calgary Flames at Rogers Place on September 26th.
  • Nick Spaling’s deal with Geneve-Servette was announced today, making him the latest in the line of players heading to Switzerland.  The deal is different than any given in the NHL, reports Stephen Whyno as the two sides have agreed to a one-year pact with an option for 2017-18, much like an MLB deal.  This adds a new wrinkle to players looking for contracts outside the NHL, as European leagues are getting more creative in their contract structure. Spaling will be reunited with former line-mate and veteran NHLer Mike Santorelli, who signed a deal last month with the club.

Roster Crunch: Central Division

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Previously, we looked at some of the battles for the last few spots among Pacific Division teams, happening to focus mostly on the third pairing on many teams.  With the Anaheim Ducks leading the way with their glut of young defenders, we’ll head to the Central Division next where there are a few teams who might be contenders to scoop up one of extra Ducks pieces.

Dallas Stars –  It’s not often you see a team lose three of it’s top-four defenders in one offseason, but that’s what happened to the Stars this summer after Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers and Kris Russell all became unrestricted free agents. While Russell has yet to sign, he was probably miscast as the 24-minute-a-night player the Stars used him as down the stretch. They brought in Dan Hamhuis to fill one of the spots, but it’ll be a battle between Jamie Oleksiak, Stephen Johns, Patrik Nemeth, Jordie Benn and Esa Lindell for playing time this year. Because Johns is the only right-handed member of that group, perhaps Julius Honka, a former first-round pick, will make his NHL debut this season as well.

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Salary Cap Report: Central Division

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As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. Some teams are not finished building their rosters, with RFAs still to sign and trades to explore. Some teams have plenty of space to maneuver with; other teams will need to get creative to stay under the cap.

We’ll complete our Salary Cap Reports by taking a look at the Central Division. Of note:

  • The Central Division has the two highest paid players in the NHL in Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. The Blackhawks captain and leading scorer signed matching eight-year, $84MM extensions in the summer of 2014.
  • After June’s blockbuster trade, the NHL’s highest paid defenseman is now in the Central: P.K. Subban and his $9MM cap hit are now members of the Nashville Predators. The Predators also have the highest paid goalie in the division, with Pekka Rinne making $7MM per season.
  • With Dallas captain Jamie Benn signed to a long-term extension already, there aren’t any superstar pending-UFAs in the Central, but veteran scoring wingers Patrick Sharp and Alex Steen are both up at the end of this season. Calder Trophy winner Artemi Panarin and Ryan Johansen headline next summer’s RFAs.

By the numbers:

Also in the Salary Cap Report series: Atlantic Division, Metropolitan Division, and Pacific Division.

Avs, Barrie Agree To New Deal

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After all of the speculation surrounding the “contentious” relationship between the Colorado Avalanche and defenseman Tyson Barrie and the drama of the summer’s only arbitration decision, it seems as thought the two sides were able to agree to a deal just in time. Elliotte Friedman reports that Barrie has re-signed with Colorado, before the arbitration decision was handed down, for four years and $22MM.

The $5.5MM cap hit that the new extension carries falls, as expected, in the middle of the competing offers made to the arbitrator. The Avalanche had asked for a two-year contract worth $8.25MM ($4.125MM cap hit), while Barrie’s camp countered with a one year and $6MM. The eventual compromise falls closer the value that Barrie was hoping for, and based on a trend of preferential treatment towards players in NHL arbitration, is likely close to what would have been awarded. Instead of waiting for the one or two year arbitration deal and risking having to give Barrie another raise soon, the Avalanche were instead smart to finally agree to a new deal for a longer term.

The $5.5MM cap hit is in no way over-payment by Colorado. Having just turned 25, Barrie has put together three straight seasons of strong offensive production at a young age. He can be counted on for double-digit goals and 40+ assists each season and has not had any durability issues despite a modest 5’10” 190-lb. frame. The $5-$6MM is just the going rate for small, fast, puck-moving defenseman, as evidenced by Barrie and the earlier deals this summer handed out to Torey Krug ($5.25MM) and Alex Goligoski ($5.475). The signing puts the Avalanche less than a million dollars from the $73MM salary cap limit, but with a full roster and no more restricted free agents to sign, it seems as though Colorado should be ready to go for the 2016-17 season without much worry about the cap.

What could have been an ugly situation in Denver has been avoided, as both sides should be happy with the extension and looking forward to four more years of production. If Barrie continue to put up 50-odd points a season from the blue line, the Avalanche will never regret giving in to the deal they signed today.

Snapshots: Hossa, Barrie, Vesey

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The Athletic’s Scott Powers writes that Blackhawks forward Marian Hossa is just fine with whatever comes his way during the 2016-17 season. The 37-year-old winger has slowed a bit since joining the Hawks in 2009-10 and had his lowest point total since the 1998-99 season. Powers reports that Hossa is cognizant of where he is in his career, and that the extra rest following a first round playoff loss to the Blues has recharged Hossa mentally and physically.

Hossa is comfortable with a more defensive-minded role, Powers adds. The gifted two-way forward’s impact on possession should remain stable even while his numbers decline. Underrated throughout the seven seasons of his Blackhawk career is the impact he has on the ice disrupting plays defensively, and then setting up scoring chances at the other end–oftentimes in the same shift.

Though he climbs in age, Hossa’s value to the Hawks is anything but diminished. If the Hawks are fortunate enough to land Jimmy Vesey, the offense that Vesey could generate would more than compensate for Hossa’s drop off. If anything, a full-out defensive minded Hossa would only ratchet up the Stanley Cup expectations in Chicago.

In other NHL news:

  • Adrian Dater argues that the purported angst between Tyson Barrie and the Colorado Avalanche  isn’t as bad as many think. He also shoots down the rumor that the Avs will deal the young d-man. Dater indicates that the Avs still own Barrie’s rights for another three seasons and wouldn’t dream of dealing him unless the trade package was significant. Dater writes that the Avs are in the “driver’s seat” when it comes to Barrie and that both sides see this negotiation as business, not personal.
  • Dater also weighs in on the Vesey-to-Blackhawks speculation and claims that the Hawks would likely use Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane as recruiting tools to bring the young forward into the fold. With every organization being bound to the same financial constraints, Dater writes that the Hawks are head and shoulders above other teams because of their prestige and standing in the league. Vesey would also be an affordable top six forward for the Hawks. In true Dater fashion, he concludes by saying “he’s been wrong before.” Regardless, Dater joins the cacophony of voices reporting the Hawks’ high chance of landing the coveted winger.

Snapshots: Coyotes; Gagner; Barrie

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News and notes around the NHL:

  • With the recent signings of Connor Murphy and Michael Stone, the Arizona Coyotes now have eight defensemen signed to NHL deals—and that’s not even including top draft prospect Jake Chychrun, whom the Coyotes moved up for in the 2016 NHL Draft. As Craig Morgan of AZSports writes, the backlog of NHL-ready defensemen poses both problem and prosperity for the team. It creates a logjam of defensemen and little opportunity for prospects like Chychrun to get playing time, but it also gives them expendable pieces to upgrade other areas. The Coyotes may have to look elsewhere for offensive help if they cannot re-sign RFA Tobias Rieder before the season starts. Trading from a position of strength to obtain a forward kills two birds with one stone. Take a look at Arizona’s depth chart at Roster Resource.
  • UFA Sam Gagner is close to signing a deal with an NHL team, according to his agent. Gagner last played for the Philadelphia Flyers where he scored 8G and 8A in 53 games. The Canadian center held much promise as a member of the Edmonton Oilers from 2007-2014, including netting eight points in one game, but never fulfilled the potential scouts thought he had. Gagner will probably take a one-year “prove it” deal to try and revitalize his career.
  • RFA Tyson Barrie completed his arbitration hearing today, and the arbitrator will issue her decision within 48 hours. Because Colorado offered a $4MM contract, and Barrie offered a $6MM contract, the arbitrator’s decision will most likely meet the threshold ($3.9MM) to open up Colorado’s walk-away rights. If Colorado chooses to invoke those rights, they will be stuck with the arbitrator’s decision for one year before Barrie becomes a free agent. When a team elects a two-year term decision for any player-elected salary arbitration, using walk away rights reduces the arbitrator’s decision down to one year, and then the player becomes a UFA.

 

Arbitration Hearing Opens For Tyson Barrie

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The Denver Post’s Terry Frei reports that Tyson Barrie’s arbitration meeting opened this morning in Toronto. After failing to agree on terms with the Colorado Avalanche, arbitrator Elizabeth Neumeier was presented the arguments for both sides.

Barrie’s camp argues that the defenseman is due a one-year, $6MM deal while the Avalanche counter that the 25-year-old be paid $4MM in 2016-17, and $4.25MM in 2017-18.

Frei writes that Neumeier will make her decision within the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, James Mirtle tweets that the hearing could get “ugly,” though there are still some who believe a deal could get done. The Avs d-man should receive a hefty raise regardless of term.

PHR provided an arbitration preview for Barrie earlier in the week.

Colorado Avalanche Depth Chart

 

Snapshots: Kane, Elliott, Mrazek, Hrivik, Gormley

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Evander Kane’s most recent legal woes has led to speculation Buffalo could look to move the talented yet troubled forward. One potential suitor might be the Vancouver Canucks, who are thought to be interested in adding a scoring line winger. Kane of course is a B.C. native and played his junior hockey as a member of the Vancouver Giants of the WHL. Along those lines, Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Sun makes the case the Canucks need a player of Kane’s ilk and should pursue a trade. Meanwhile, Jason Botchford, writing for The Province, takes the opposite position and lists five reasons the club should avoid Kane.

It’s hard to imagine Buffalo being able to find a trade partner at this point, at least until Kane’s legal issues are resolved. For one, the NHL is monitoring the situation and while they say they aren’t considering punishment for Kane, the possibility of such can’t be dismissed pending the results of the criminal proceedings. Second, at this point in the summer most clubs are capped out, making a move to acquire Kane and his $5.25MM cap charge difficult to complete.

More notes emanating around the NHL…..

  • After finishing dead last in the league in both save percentage and goals against average, the Calgary Flames completely turned over their goaltending position, dealing for Brian Elliott at the Entry Draft and signing Chad Johnson as a free agent. The duo replaces the combination of Karri Ramo, Joni Ortio, Niklas Backstrom  and Jonas Hiller between the pipes for the Flames. Elliott, the presumptive starter, was introduced to the Calgary media Wednesday and wasted little time endearing himself to the followers of his new team.
  • The recent signing of RFA Petr Mrazek has pushed the Red Wings to a figure almost $5MM over the 2016-17 salary cap ceiling. As my colleague, Nate Brown, wrote earlier this morning, the concern is that GM Ken Holland has invested too much of his resources in role players and/or rewarding his own to exorbitant contract extensions. While the concern may be warranted, the Red Wings immediate issue is becoming cap compliant ahead of the start of the upcoming campaign. But as MLive’s Brendan Savage writes, the Wings will likely place veteran forwards Johan Franzen ($3.95MM cap hit) and Joe Vitale ($1.12MM cap charge) on LTIR, thus freeing up just more than $5MM in space and bringing the Red Wings into compliance.
  • The New York Rangers have come to terms with their lone remaining RFA, agreeing to a new contract with F Marek Hrivik, per the club’s website. According to Larry Brooks of the New York Post, Hrivik received a two-way deal which will pay him $600K at the NHL level. Hrivik will go to camp and have an opportunity to compete for one of the final forward spots for the Rangers, though it’s likely he will again spend most of the year in the minors. Last season Hrivik saw action in five NHL games, picking up his first career point. In 68 AHL contests with Hartford, Hrivik netted a career-high 41 points and 29 assists.
  • Former first-round pick Brandon Gormley has agreed to join the New Jersey Devils on a one-year contract worth $650K at the NHL level. Gormley, selected 13th overall in 2010 by Arizona, spent last season as a member of the Colorado Avalanche organization following a September trade. In 26 NHL games this past season, Gormley notched a single assist and recorded eight PIMs. Gormley looked to have a bright professional future after an accomplished junior career. He played for a QMJHL championship club with Moncton in 2010 and won a Memorial Cup as a member of Shawinigan in 2012. He has yet to translate his amateur success into a regular role in the NHL and looks to be earmarked for depth duty in the Devils organization.

 

 

Arbitration Breakdown: Tyson Barrie

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Early Wednesday morning it was reported that the Colorado Avalanche and Tyson Barrie have exchanged arbitration numbers in advance of their hearing scheduled for Friday. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet tells us that the the team has offered a two-year deal worth a total of $8.25MM, while Barrie’s camp has countered with a one-year, $6MM pact.

[For more background on the arbitration process, consult Parts One and Two of our Capology 101: Arbitration series.]

Barrie has played parts of five seasons already for the Avalanche, after being selected in the third-round of the 2009 draft and putting up impressive numbers in the AHL. His offensive game has been excellent since his debut, scoring 153 points in 264 games.

Last year, Barrie saw a slight dip in point production and a huge swing in plus/minus, ending with a -16 rating, third worst on the team (behind Jarome Iginla and Erik Johnson).  There have been detractors of Barrie’s defensive game for his entire career, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to improve a ton at this point.

Barrie does, however, have solid possession stats because of his deftness with the puck. He is a breakout machine when he does recover the puck in his own end, and can anchor a powerplay on any team. His 18 assists with the man-advantage led his team by a wide margin, and put him among the league leaders.

For what it’s worth, Barrie’s name has been bandied in trade (or offer sheet) speculation all summer, with some thinking that Colorado may not want to pay him what he’ll earn in arbitration.  His $6MM ask is a big one, which would equal Erik Johnson as the team’s highest paid defenseman.

Barrie’s Stats

2015-16: 78 GP, 13 G, 36 A, 49 P, 23:12 ATOI, -17 rating
Career: 264 GP, 40 G, 113 A, 153 P, 21:06 ATOI, -7 rating

Potential Comparables

Dougie Hamilton (Calgary) – Hamilton avoided arbitration before last season by signing a huge six-year, $34.5MM ($5.75MM AAV) deal on June 30th, a deal that is surely Barrie’s target in negotiations. Hamilton had played in less games, had lower production, but was a full three years younger than Barrie is now, and had been a top-ten pick. While Hamilton’s 6’5″ frame doesn’t compare very well, the deal for a puck moving offensive d-man does.

Nick Leddy (Islanders) – Leddy is a more age-appropriate comparison, and the Islander blueliner re-signed last season for a seven-year $38.5MM ($5.5MM AAV) deal that will keep him in Brooklyn (or Queens, or Nassau) for the long-term. Leddy had more games under his belt but trailed in production, only reaching 40 points for the first time this past year. He was, however, a possession-driving force similar to Barrie, and was coming off a season which garnered him Norris votes.

T.J. Brodie (Calgary) – Brodie didn’t have the same track record when he signed his five-year, $23.25MM deal before last season, but he was coming off a year similar to Barrie’s latest. Brodie is seen as a better two-way defender, but doesn’t have quite the offensive flair, which may be why his AAV of $4.65MM comes in well under the other two examples despite still being a very valuable member of the Flames’ back-end.

Projection

With the two sides nearly $2MM apart, it’s indicative of the reported distance in negotiations thus far.  While no other player has actually reached a hearing this summer, Barrie might be the first to leave his award in the hands of an arbitrator.  If a long-term deal is struck, Barrie might consider taking something around $4.75MM per season, but if it heads to a hearing it’s hard to believe the arbitrator will award anything less than $5MM.

With Barrie ranking just outside the top-10 in defenseman scoring across the last three seasons, he’ll point to the huge deals that the rest of his comparables have signed, and demand something in-line with those contracts.  We project a one-year, $5.25MM award from the arbitrator should the sides not be able to come to an agreement.

Current Trade Candidates (Part Two)

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Now almost a month into free agency, the NHL off-season is nearing a point where the flow of transactions, once a raging river of signings during the first few days of July, will slow down to only a trickle. A few notable unrestricted free agents remain unsigned, a handful of young restricted free agents are set to still be extended, and arbitration cases continue to be settled prior to their hearings, though perhaps one of two will come to fruition. However, the days of big signings are over; all remaining deals handed out will either be expected, in the case of RFA’s, or underwhelming, for the UFA’s lucky enough to even find a new home. So what off-season excitement is left for hockey fans to follow? The trade market. August often brings a change of mindset for many NHL front office executives, from adding free agents before someone else scoops them up, to instead subtracting from the current roster as the season nears and cap space, depth, and even character concerns become more clear and focused as opening night approaches. We’ve already touched on the talented and troubled Evander Kane, the inevitable move of Marc-Andre Fleury, and the cap-strapped Red Wings. The following players are a few more who have had their names floated around the trade market all summer, and the next few weeks could bring a change of scenery to one or more:

Valterri Filppula, Tampa Bay Lightning

Given the salary cap crunch of the Lightning, as well as their talent and depth up front, and in particular down the middle, Filppula seems like a very “tradeable” player. With nearly $8.5MM in cap space still available, it seems like the Bolts shouldn’t be too panicked about their situation, right? Wrong. Still to be signed by Tampa are young forwards Nikita Kucherov and Vladislav Namestnikov, as well as arbitration-bound defenseman Nikita Nesterov. One side effect of having a great young core of players is the struggle to re-sign them, and this off-season, sacrifices must be made. Kucherov alone should command between $5-$6MM or more per season (depending on the length of the deal) and Namestnikov and Nesterov easily combine to go way over the remaining few million in cap space. Unless the Lightning make the bold choice to move one of these restricted free agents, a veteran will have to be moved off the team, and it will be someone that carries a decent cap hit. Enter Filppula, who at 32 can still produce and plays a solid two-way game. A contender with ample space or a young team in need of some veteran leadership and defensive stability up front could both use his services, unless the $5MM price tag is too much for them. He presents the Lightning’s best chance at relieving their cap troubles without significantly effecting the team, but they must first convince someone that the price for Filppula is worth it, as trading him and holding on to contract dollars makes no sense. Filppula will continue to hear his name batted around the rumor mill, and if a team falls in love with him like Tampa Bay did, he could be on his way elsewhere for 2016-17.

Braydon Coburn, Tampa Bay Lightning 

If the Lightning are unable to move Filppula and unwilling to move any other forwards, they would turn next to the defense, where Coburn is the prime trade candidate. Although Jason Garrison represents the least value for production on defense, with only 11 points last season despite being pegged as an offensive defenseman, other teams can see that as well. Garrison and his $4.6MM cap hit are essentially untradeable. Coburn on the other hand, is a reliable stay-at-home defenseman, who may not be a perfect fit in Tampa but has great value on the market. The Bolts would risk losing arguably their strongest defensive player if they choose to move Coburn, but they would also get plenty in return and his departure would allow younger defenseman like Nesterov, Andrej Sustr, and Slater Koekkoek to have guaranteed playing time all season long. The goal for any team that is up against the cap is to gain the space and flexibilty necessary while reducing the negative impact on the team. While Filpulla and Garrison would hurt the Lightning less, Tampa Bay may be forced to move Coburn and suffer the consequences because he is easier to trade than the other two and would give the team $3.7MM in space that they desperately need.

Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning

Bishop, of course, is the crown jewel of Tampa’s trade candidates. As one of, if not the best goalie in the NHL, it would be hard to find a team that wouldn’t be at least somewhat interested in acquiring him. He will be an unrestricted free agent after this season, but could be appealing as both a relatively cheap one-year rental at $5.9MM or a steal for a team willing and able to give him a long-term extension worth somewhere in the arena of eight years and $64M before they have to battle it out in free agency. Either scenario will likely draw interest from the Dallas Stars, who we’ve already connected to both Jimmy Howard and Marc-Andre Fleury, but who have shown special interest in Bishop. While the Lightning don’t necessarily have to get rid of the likes of Filppula or Coburn, they do have to eventually say goodbye to Bishop, as they can’t keep both he and the recently-extended Andrei Vasilevskiy through next summer’s expansion draft. The only question that remains is whether Tampa Bay wants to hold on to Bishop for one last run at the Cup with him in net and then let him walk in free agency, or trade him away and get a very impressive haul in exchange from Dallas or another interested team. The Bishop trade winds will not be dying down any time soon.

Nail Yakupov, Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers have already traded one past first overall pick this off-season, but don’t be shocked if another moves on. Yakupov has not come anywhere close to reaching the playing level of former teammate Taylor Hall, but still holds some trade value despite his “bust” label. Still just 22 years old, the former Sarnia Sting star who was taken #1 in 2012 has seemingly gotten worse and worse every year since his rookie season. That year he had 31 points in 48 games, not to shabby for a rookie, but has since followed it with two mid-twenties point totals in sixty-odd game seasons in 2013-14 and 2015-16, sandwiched around only 33 points and a -35 rating in 81 games in 2014-15.  A change of scenery seems imperative for Yakupov at this point, as he has not found a fit in Edmonton, and the Oilers would be smart to trade him while he still has any value left and not fall victim to a sunk cost. Yakupov trade rumors have been non-stop for years, but expect this season to finally be the one where the former Russian prodigy moves on to hopefully greener pastures.

Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche

D-needy teams across the NHL are waiting for this trade rumor to become a reality. Barrie, who has developed into an elite puck-moving defenseman with great offensive ability, has been a bargain for the Avs over the past two seasons at just $2.6MM. Now that it has become time to pay the man, he has instead been met with incessant trade chatter. There are questions as to whether coach Patrick Roy sees him as a top-pairing caliber defenseman worth the $5-$5.5MM per year that he is worth on the open market, not to mention that Colorado has only about $7MM dollars in cap space and a deal of that size would leave their cap flexibility greatly  restricted. However, the Avalanche are also not very deep on defense, having already traded away solid contributor Nick Holden, and especially on the right side have no one other than Barrie and Erik Johnson who can play major NHL minutes. Of every trade rumor listed today, Colorado would likely be the most ill-advised to trade the rumored player. $5MM is the going rate for a defenseman like Barrie right now, and the Avs would be smart to just lock him up. If they instead choose to trade him, it will make another team very happy and the impact of the loss will be felt in Denver.

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