Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Aho, Bjorkstrand, Werenski, Buchnevich
It seems we’ve spent most of the offseason talking about Jimmy Vesey and pondering which of his many suitors would ultimately be fortunate enough to add him to their ranks. That chase is finally over with the New York Rangers coming out on top in their efforts to land the prized UFA forward from Harvard. Whether or not Vesey performs up to the high expectations all of the summer hype would suggest remains to be seen, of course, but this saga serves as a reminder of just how much teams value young talent on entry-level deals.
With the salary cap – or in some cases, internal budgets – forcing teams to allow quality veteran pieces to depart each summer in search of a bigger pay day, teams need young players to step in and fill roles vacated by experienced players. The CBA limits how much a player can earn on their ELC thus allowing clubs more freedom to spend lavishly on star players as long as they have enough young talent to balance out their budgets. By virtue of his status as an UFA limited to signing an ELC, Vesey has understandably garnered an unusually high level of attention for a soon-to-be first year player but he won’t be the only rookie expected to make a near immediate impact with his team in 2016-17.
In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile first-year players who will have an opportunity to step in right away and fill a potentially critical role for their team. Today we start in the Metro Division. (Note: In an effort to keep these posts relatively short, some divisions may be covered in multiple posts).
Sebastian Aho (Carolina) – Aho was the Hurricanes second-round choice in the 2015 draft out of Finland and signed his ELC with the club in June. He led his Liiga team (Finland’s top professional league), Karpat, in scoring in 2015-16 tallying 20 goals and 45 points in 45 games. Aho also has achieved remarkable success representing his home country at both the 2016 IIHF World Championships and the 2016 World Juniors. He recorded seven points for the silver medal winning Finns at the World Championships while averaging two points per game – 14 in seven contests – in helping Finland win gold at the Juniors tournament.
It would seem given his performances on some of the biggest stages in the sport that Aho should be ready for the NHL game. Count Hurricanes GM Ron Francis among those who believe Aho can contribute in Carolina immediately.
“Sebastian is regarded as one of the top prospects in hockey and is ready to begin his North American career. He had a tremendous season as an 18-year-old playing against men in Finland’s top league, and was outstanding in international competitions including the recent World Championship. He will play an important role for the Hurricanes moving forward.”
Carolina’s depth chart on Roster Resource lists Aho as the team’s third right wing and given Francis’ quotes, it seems probable he will be given every opportunity to become a key contributor right out of the gate. The Hurricanes have an excellent young blue line but need help up front if they wish to challenge for the playoffs. Aho’s skills and playmaking abilities would be a welcome addition to Carolina’s forward ranks.
Oliver Bjorkstrand (Columbus) – Danish forward Oliver Bjorkstrand proved he was ready for a prime time role with the Blue Jackets during an impressive playoff run as a member of the Lake Erie Monsters, Columbus’ AHL affiliate. The Monsters lost just one game en route to winning a Calder Cup and Bjorkstrand helped pave the way tallying 10 postseason goals. He was even more prolific in the Calder Cup Finals scoring five times, with three proving to be of the game-winning variety.
His head coach with the Monsters, Jared Bednar, had this to say about Bjorkstrand:
“He has a will to win that’s unparalleled, and that’s why he has always been successful, no matter where he’s been.”
The Blue Jackets have several quality young players that will soon be ready to challenge for NHL roles but Bjorkstrand’s determination and recent postseason success should give him an advantage over his peers at cracking the Columbus lineup. Columbus could theoretically compete for a playoff spot, assuming a return to health and form from goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, along with an improved defense corps. Bjorkstrand should add more skilled depth to the forward group and he could enjoy a productive season if he finds chemistry with the right players.
Zach Werenski (Columbus) – Possibly joining Bjorkstrand in Columbus in time for the 2016-17 season is D Zach Werenski. Werenski, the team’s first round pick in 2015, eighth overall, played two seasons at the University of Michigan prior to signing his ELC last spring. He would see action in seven AHL regular season games, scoring one goal, before embarking on an excellent playoff run. In 17 postseason contests, Werenski tallied five goals and 14 points in helping the Monsters to the Calder Cup.
Werenski already boasts NHL size at 6-foot-2 and 209 pounds and adds tremendous skating ability as well as poise under pressure. Even after the addition of rising star Seth Jones via a mid-season trade with Nashville and the presence of Ryan Murray, Werenski has an excellent shot to break training camp with the big club. If Werenski develops as expected, the Blue Jackets could quickly transform their blue line from one of the league’s worst to one of the best in relatively short order.
Pavel Buchnevich (New York Rangers) – Vesey isn’t the only rookie the Rangers will likely be welcoming to the lineup for the 2016-17 season. Pavel Buchnevich, the team’s top prospect and a 2013 third round choice, elected to make the jump to North America and signed his ELC this past spring. While skating in the KHL, widely considered the second best league in the word behind the NHL, Buchnevich tallied a respectable 37 points in 58 regular season games.
To put those numbers in a bit of perspective, Rob Vollman in the Hockey Abstract has constructed a predictive chart to convert offensive numbers from one league to another based primarily on historical data involving players appearing in both leagues and how they’ve fared moving from one to the other. Buchnevich’s points-per-game ratio in the KHL projects to be roughly the equivalent of a 40-point campaign in the NHL based on Vollman’s chart. That’s pretty solid for a 20-year-old player.
The Rangers wouldn’t seem to need much of an offensive boost after finishing seventh in the NHL in goal scoring and returning much of their top-six forward talent – excepting of course the swap of Derick Brassard for Mika Zibanejad – but Alain Vigneault tends to use his third line as much or more than most NHL head coaches. That should allow for a rookie with the skill and ability of Buchnevich to earn quality ice time while also shielding him from the tougher match-ups.
Snapshots: Roy, Vesey, Oilers
When Patrick Roy suddenly resigned as head coach of the Colorado Avalanche last week the hockey world, along with GM Joe Sakic, was stunned to say the least. While Sakic said all the right things, and refused to throw his former teammate under the bus, Terry Frei from the Denver Post writes that it was how their relationship had developed that caused Roy to exit so abruptly.
In the piece, Frei writes that though Roy had a big impact on personnel and development decisions in his first three years, as someone holding a vice-president of hockey operations should, he’d been slowly edged out as Sakic gained more confidence and experience on the job. To quote Frei: “Did he quit on the Avs? Sure, he did. As coach. Because he thought he had been fired as a VP.”
The Avalanche are still looking for someone to fill the head coaching role, and as Frei reports, Sakic has indicated that none of the current assistant coaches are being considered. We profiled five candidates here who may find their phones ringing at some point, though many are already under contract with another team, if in a lesser role.
- The Jimmy Vesey sweepstakes continued today, with the final team meetings taking place. Multiple reports have current players attending the meetings in order to sway his decision, with John Tavares being one of the biggest names confirmed (via James Mirtle). Though the Islanders may still be seen as outsiders, a promised role next to Tavares is definitely something any player would have to consider, and with P.A. Parenteau currently penciled in, it wouldn’t take much to offer it. Other teams are obviously offering similar things, with Jonathan Toews (link) and Auston Matthews (link) both in Boston to meet the Harvard grad.
- In his latest column, David Staples of the Edmonton Journal posits that the Oilers will never be successful while they keep trotting out a few weak-links, despite the obvious top-end talent on the roster. In analyzing the roster, Staples references Chris Anderson and David Salley’s book “The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Soccer Is Wrong“, and applies their “O-ring player” idea to some recent Oilers like Anton Lander, Mark Fayne and Mark Letestu. While a team can’t have NHL stars in every roster spot, it’s these weak-links that are holding the team back from ever capitalizing on their young stars’ success.
Minnesota Wild Notes: Boudreau, Staal, Tuch
Pro Hockey Talk continues their run through the NHL, each day covering a different team. Today the Minnesota Wild are in the cross-hairs as Joey Alfieri of NBC Sports reviews Minnesota’s summer and previews the upcoming campaign for the Wild.
Alfieri highlights the hiring of former Washington Capital and Anaheim Duck head coach Bruce Boudreau to replace John Torchetti behind the Minnesota bench. He cites Boudreau’s past regular season success and suggests establishing a “winning culture” is the first order of business for the new coach.
Despite his postseason failures, the primary reason he was relieved of his duties in Anaheim, Boudreau is still an excellent coach and is well respected throughout the league. His teams generally excel in the puck possession department and have always played a solid two-way style. The Ducks got off to a slow start last season and it was rumored the team was considering making a mid-season change behind the bench before Boudreau was able to right the ship. Ultimately the Ducks would come all the way back to win the Pacific Division regular season crown but were eliminated by Nashville in the first round of the playoffs. It marked the second, first-round playoff exit in Boudreu’s four full seasons at the helm in Anaheim.
Minnesota is an interesting team in that they have enough talent to be considered a solid contender to qualify for the postseason, yet maybe not enough to realistically challenge for a Cup. They are also not bad enough to miss the playoffs altogether. Consequently they don’t have the resources to dramatically improve the roster to compete today but are also not in a position to add high impact young talent through the draft to build for the future. Hiring Boudreau has an excellent chance of paying off in the short term as he should be able to guide the team to the playoffs for the fifth consecutive campaign. Once the postseason begins, though, all bets are off.
- The biggest offseason player acquisition for Minnesota came in the form of free agent signee Eric Staal. Alfieri calls the three-year, $10.5MM deal Staal received from Minnesota “team friendly,” and while it was expected he would receive more lucrative offers on the open market, it’s important to note the veteran pivot posted his worst season since his rookie campaign back in 2003-04. Staal scored just 13 goals and 39 points while playing 83 regular season games – 63 with Carolina and 20 for the New York Rangers. He is still expected to center a scoring line for Minnesota and even if $3.5MM annually is a relatively small sum for a top-six forward, the Wild will need more production out of Staal if they wish to compete in the Central Division.
- In a separate post for Pro Hockey Talk, Jason Brough identifies young RW Alex Tuch as one of the team’s few top prospects and a player who could compete for a roster spot this season. Tuch, 20, is listed at 6’4″ and 220 pounds and was the Wild’s first round selection (18th overall) in the 2014 draft. He played two seasons with Boston College and scored 32 goals in 77 NCAA games skating for the Eagles. Brough believes Tuch is most likely destined to open the season playing for Iowa in the AHL but he also notes the big winger could conceivably make the team with a strong camp. The club did sign a similar player in Chris Stewart, to a two-year contract which should make him a presumptive favorite to beat out Tuch for a roster spot should it come down to a competition between the two.
Sakic: No Hard Feelings With Roy
Mike Chambers of the Denver Post has the latest on the shocking news of Patrick Roy’s resignation. While there were inklings that a rift had formed between Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy, Chambers writes that Sakic indicates that the two former teammates are still friends, and golfing buddies. There are no “ill feelings” between the two.
Chambers quoted Sakic as saying that Roy was thinking about resigning for a few weeks, and that Roy is comfortable with the decision he made. Sakic added that Roy, “didn’t have a lot of fun last year and that Roy, “came to this decision on his own.”
The plot thickens only in that Roy’s comments, despite Sakic’s insistence that he was consulted on every move, spoke of a coach who had little say and wanted more control. Roy, as indicated in his statement, wanted more say on player-personnel decisions. Sakic, for his part, was surprised by the comment. From Chambers:
“It definitely caught me off guard,” Sakic said of Roy’s resignation phone call Thursday morning. “We had a good conversation today I was surprised, but I also thanked Patrick for his three years and letting me know now.”
Nick Cotsonika, however, tweets some confusing information on the part of Sakic, who said while they were on the same page, he was still shocked that Roy resigned.
Despite the mixed messages, Pierre LeBrun tweeted earlier that Roy still had the greatest respect for Sakic. Further, LeBrun tweeted that Roy wanted to make sure people weren’t reading too much into the statement. There were no “back stories.”
Earlier, PHR listed a number of options for the next head coach.
Potential Avalanche Coaching Options
While the news of Patrick Roy’s resignation as head coach of the Colorado Avalanche is shocking, it also means there’s more news to come. The Avalanche have about a month until training camp, and will want a new coach in place beforehand. The timing of Roy’s resignation leaves very little time for GM Joe Sakic to do a thorough search. That said, there are a few available candidates that immediately spring to mind.
- Bob Hartley – Hartley coached the Avalanche from 1998 to 2002, winning four division titles, appearing in four Western Conference Finals, and winning the 2001 Stanley Cup. Players on that team included current Avalanche GM Joe Sakic, executive Adam Foote, and assistant coach Nolan Pratt. He also coached new Avalanche forward Joe Colborne during his time in Calgary, and briefly coached Jarome Iginla there as well. There have already been several suggestions from media members that Hartley would or should be a contender for the job.
- Marc Crawford – This is a less likely possibility. Crawford is another former Avalanche coach, winning a Stanley Cup with Joe Sakic in 1996. He’s also very recently employed. This off-season, Crawford returned from a four year stint in Switzerland to work on Guy Boucher’s staff with the Ottawa Senators. Still, if anyone is going to quit a job so soon, it would probably be for a promotion, to work with familiar faces. After resigning from the Avalanche in 1998, Crawford had stints with the Canucks, Kings, and Stars.
- Sheldon Keefe – The Toronto Marlies head coach and former Lightning forward is just 35 years old, but already a popular pick to fill future openings. In his first season in the AHL, Keefe led the Marlies to 54 wins in 76 games, and a trip to the Eastern Conference Final. This after three straight playoff appearances as head coach of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds in the OHL. He’s very young to coach, but the Avalanche are a young team. What experience he does have is mostly with player development.
- Dallas Eakins – Most of the paragraph on Keefe could have been said of Eakins before he joined the Edmonton Oilers in 2013. Once regarded as a great coaching prospect, Eakins won just 36 of 113 games before the Oilers fired him. He is presently coach of the San Diego Gulls in the AHL, farm team of the Anaheim Ducks. It went poorly in Edmonton, to be sure, but it never got any better after he left. It’s hard to get a second chance in the NHL, but Eakins has done well enough outside of it to be worth another look.
- Ron Wilson – Wilson has worked with players who take advantage of their speed and skill for his entire coaching career, and a young Avalanche team fits that mold. While he’s been criticized for his handling of young players before, he’s also never really had ones this good. He’s prone to hostility towards the media, and is quick to bench a veteran when the player is underachieving, or when Wilson is just mad. Still, it’s hard to write off a guy who’s won over 600 games.
Snapshots: Sakic, Roy, Subban, Puempel
After an unusual delay, the Colorado Avalanche have released a statement on the resignation of former head coach Patrick Roy. GM Joe Sakic wished Roy luck, and said the team will begin searching for their new coach immediately.
Here’s some more to think about as you process this surprising day:
- Staying with the Roy news, Sportsnet’s John Shannon tweeted today, further fueling talk of a rift between Avalanche GM Joe Sakic and his former coach. Shannon reports that the two weren’t even speaking during the free agency period.
- Elliott Friedman appeared on the NHL Network a few weeks ago. As transcribed by Chris Nichols for Today’s Slapshot, Friedman believes that the Canadiens made a conscious decision to trade P.K. Subban before his no-trade clause kicked in on July 1st of this year. Friedman also quotes a Canadiens player saying that the management and coaching staff believe the team is mentally and physically “soft.”
- Bob Duff at the Ottawa Citizen spoke to Senators forward Matt Puempel today. Puempel stressed his desire to play regularly in the NHL. He also discussed the organizational changes, and how that may affect his chances of making the team. Puempel, 23, was a first round pick of the Senators in 2011. He has scored four goals, six points in 39 NHL games over the last two seasons.
Patrick Roy Leaves Avalanche Organization
1:10pm: Roy has released a statement on his resignation. He seems to be quitting over a lack of influence in personnel decisions.
1:03pm: According to Renaud Lavoie of TVA, head coach Patrick Roy has resigned his position with the Colorado Avalanche.
Roy had coached the Avalanche since the 2013-14 season. In his first season with the team, Roy led the Avalanche to a first place finish in the Central Division. From there, the Avalanche were eliminated in the first round, and then failed to make the playoffs the next two years. Roy ends his tenure in Colorado with a record of 130-92-24 in 246 games.
It is of note that Roy explains his decision by suggesting he lacked input on personnel decisions. TSN’s Frank Seravelli reports that there had been “long-rumored discord” within the Avalanche organization. It has been reported before that Roy viewed Avalanche defenseman Tyson Barrie as “no more than a fifth defenseman.” Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic insisted this summer that he would not trade Barrie. Barrie re-signed with the Avalanche recently, signing a four-year contract, worth $5.5MM per season.
Roy played 478 as a goaltender for the Avalanche between 1995 to 2003, winning the Stanley Cup in 1996 and 2001. Roy also won the Conn Smythe trophy in 2001, and the William M. Jennings award, and was named a first team all-star in 2002.
Oilers Notes: Captain Candidates, Larsson
Who will be the Oilers new captain? Chris Wescott writes that the Oilers have a multitude of players who could sew the C on the sweater. Last season, Andrew Ference, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all served as alternate captains by committee and definitely deserve a look. But what about Connor McDavid?
While Wescott confirmed that head coach Todd McLellan would indeed name a captain this season instead of having a plethora of alternate captains, Jared Clinton of the Hockey News penned an article back in April anointing McDavid as the most logical choice for captain. Clinton writes that McLellan extolls the winning and leadership virtues that McDavid displays and goes onto report that the 19-year-old center didn’t crumble under the expectations of a success-starved city weighing on his shoulders.
Clinton speculates that had McDavid played a full season (he broke his clavicle in November which sidelined him for close to three months), his projected performance could have been around 80 points. Though McDavid appeared in 45 games, he was slightly over a point-per-game player as he notched 48 (16-32). Aside from performance, both his head coach and general manager have vouched for his leadership qualities, making him the favorite. Naming a young captain wouldn’t be an oddity as Clinton points out that Jonathan Toews, Sidney Crosby, and Gabriel Landeskog all wore the C very early in their respective careers.
In other Oilers news:
- Wescott also reports that McLellan expects newly acquired defenseman Adam Larsson to play against top competition come October. McLellan doesn’t expect Larsson to be a force on the score sheet, but instead, expects that he will “grow his game” along with the rest of the younger Oiler players. McLellan also urged patience with the young Swedish defenseman who many forget is only 23. The Oilers bench boss is more interested in making sure Edmonton’s new acquisition is comfortable in his new surroundings, and isn’t measured simply by who the Oilers traded to get him. Instead, Wescott writes, McLellan will only add pressure as Larsson’s comfort level increases.
Western Notes: Chayka, Sydor, Eberle
When the Arizona Coyotes gave then 26-year old John Chayka their GM job, many in the hockey world cringed at the thought of the analytic community finally having a poster boy at the top of an NHL franchise. Chayka promised to bring with him the newer possession-based analysis of NHL players, and today summed it up quite nicely in an interview with Dan Rosen of NHL.com:
“The philosophy is fairly simple. It’s when we don’t have the puck, recover the puck as quickly as possible. There are all kinds of different forms where you can gain possession of the puck, some of them are physical and some of them are non-physical, so I think you need a blend to have both. Once you get the puck back it’s to transition the puck. Defense isn’t about defending, it’s about getting the puck in the forwards’ hands and getting the puck moving into the offensive zone. It’s about transitioning.”
The phrase “defense isn’t about defending” will stick out as a sort of mantra for the analytics push, as the league continues to move away from players who can impose themselves physically in their own end, but can’t move the puck when they end up with it. His team has added Alex Goligoski, a possession darling who moves the puck well, but has also signed Luke Schenn and Jamie McGinn, both players who aren’t so revered for their new-age skills. It’ll be interesting to watch what Chayka does in the future, and whether he breeds a level of success rarely seen in the desert of Arizona.
- The Chicago Wolves of the AHL have hired former NHLers Darryl Sydor and Daniel Tkaczuk as assistant coaches for 2016-17, adding to a group that is led by Craig Berube. The St. Louis Blues affiliate went 33-35-8 last season, and will look to improve on that record this year. Sydor, a 19-year NHL veteran played in over 1200 games in his career, and has been coaching as an assistant with the Minnesota Wild for the past five seasons. Tkaczuk, an AHL journeyman who made it into just 19 NHL games during his career, coached with the Kitchener Rangers of the OHL last season.
- Jordan Eberle has hired the “Shot Doc” to help him with his shooting ability for next season. Ron Johnson, a skills coach who has worked with Joe Pavelski and Ryan Kesler in the past has been known for improving things like grip mechanics and puck protection. If Eberle can improve on the 14.5% shooting percentage he put up last season, he could climb back above the 30-goal mark for the second time in his career. Eberle has 145 career goals in 425 games, and is a near-lock for 25 each season.
Grigorenko, Avalanche Settle On Terms
According to Tim Wharnsby of CBC, the Colorado Avalanche and RFA forward Mikhail Grigorenko have agreed to terms on a contract for 2016-17. Grigorenko, who had an arbitration hearing scheduled for Friday and who just exchanged numbers with the club this morning, will receive $1.3MM for the upcoming campaign. The Avalanche had offered $950K with Grigorenko’s camp countering at $1.65MM. The settlement comes in at exactly the midpoint.
Grigorenko finished with six goals and 27 points in his first season with the Avalanche after coming over from Buffalo as part of the return in the blockbuster Ryan O’Reilly trade. The 22-year-old natural center has 12 goals and 41 points in 142 NHL contests.
The Sabres selected Grigorenko in the first-round, 12th overall, of the 2012 entry draft. Grigerenko played his junior hockey for Quebec in the QMJHL under current Avalanche head coach Patrick Roy. That likely played a role in his inclusion in the trad package for O’Reilly.
The signing leaves Tyson Barrie as the club’s lone remaining RFA. With more than $6MM in space left according to General Fanager, the Avalanche should have the necessary room to get a deal done with the defenseman, even if negotiations have reportedly not gone smoothly.