2007 NHL Draft Take Two: Eighteenth Overall Pick
Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.
We’re looking back at the 2007 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now. Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?
Here are the results of the redraft so far, with their original draft position in parentheses:
1st Overall: Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks (1)
2nd Overall: Jamie Benn, Philadelphia Flyers (129)
3rd Overall: P.K. Subban, Phoenix Coyotes (43)
4th Overall: Logan Couture, Los Angeles Kings (9)
5th Overall: Max Pacioretty, Washington Capitals (22)
6th Overall: Jakub Voracek, Edmonton Oilers (7)
7th Overall: Ryan McDonagh, Columbus Blue Jackets (12)
8th Overall: James van Riemsdyk, Boston Bruins (2)
9th Overall: Wayne Simmonds, San Jose Sharks (61)
10th Overall: Kevin Shattenkirk, Florida Panthers (14)
11th Overall: Jake Muzzin, Carolina Hurricanes (141)
12th Overall: Kyle Turris, Montreal Canadiens (3)
13th Overall: David Perron, St. Louis Blues (26)
14th Overall: Mikael Backlund, Colorado Avalanche (24)
15th Overall: Evgenii Dadonov, Edmonton Oilers (71)
16th Overall: Alec Martinez, Minnesota Wild (95)
17th Overall: Carl Hagelin, New York Rangers (168)
At this point in the draft, you can start to see exactly why teams are starting to realize that late first-round picks aren’t quite as valuable as they appear. Even when picking from the entire draft class, a forward that still hasn’t cracked 100 NHL goals is the 17th-best selection. That’s not to say that Hagelin hasn’t had a successful career, but simply landing a full-time NHL player in the second half of the round should be considered a win.
When the draft rolled around in 2007, Hagelin had already been passed over entirely in his first year of eligibility and didn’t even land on the NHL Central Scouting list. After getting grabbed by the Rangers late in the draft, the young Swede would make history by heading to the University of Michigan. Hagelin became only the second European player to suit up for the Wolverines, and then even became the team’s (co-)captain in his senior season, a tremendous honor for a player that was such an outsider when he began his time there. Scoring 152 points in four years, Hagelin would make the jump to the NHL for the Rangers in 2011 and become an impact player immediately because of his blazing speed.
As a rookie, Hagelin would play in 17 playoff games for the Rangers, something that would become routine for him throughout his career. An incredible 19% of all the games he’s ever played in the NHL have come in the postseason, suiting up 128 times over the years with various teams. Hagelin won the Stanley Cup in back-to-back years with the Pittsburgh Penguins, and won an Olympic silver medal in 2014.
Never a top offensive option in the NHL, Hagelin has 241 points in his 546 regular season contests and never did crack the 40-point barrier in a single season. Last year he totaled just 18 points while wearing three different uniforms, but with his speed and penalty killing ability is going to stick around for quite some time.
Back in 2007, the St. Louis Blues held the 18th pick after a trade with the Calgary Flames, and they wouldn’t whiff like some of the others before them. Even though some of the higher ranked names like Angelo Esposito and Stefan Legein were still on the board, the Blues reached all the way down for USNTDP defenseman Ian Cole. Cole had been ranked 81st among North American skaters despite showing well for the development program and at the U18 World Juniors, and the Blues’ confidence in him would pay off. After three seasons at Notre Dame, Cole would make the jump to the professional level and end up in 26 games for the Blues in his first full year.
Cole continued to find playing time for St. Louis, but really took his game to the next level following a trade to the Pittsburgh Penguins (one that included fellow 2007 draftee Robert Bortuzzo). After winning two Stanley Cups with the Penguins he’s bounced around, but is an important part of the Colorado blueline for the upcoming season. He ranks ninth among all 2007 defensemen in games played and tenth in points. Still available in our redraft, is Cole still the right choice for St. Louis?
With the eighteenth pick of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, who should the St. Louis Blues select? Cast your vote below!
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PHR Live Chat Transcript: 09/19/19
Click here to read a transcript of this week’s live chat with PHR’s Gavin Lee.
East Notes: Point, Devils, Montour
Brayden Point and the Tampa Bay Lightning remain far apart in contract negotiations according to his agent Gerry Johansson, who joined Sportsnet radio this morning. Johansson admitted that the two sides are talking and that a bridge deal could be possible:
We’re just sort of poking around at different options and trying to find some common ground. Hopefully move this forward. There’s nothing wrong with a bridge deal at all, especially the way this market might go in the next five years.
We don’t really have a grand plan. If we could get Brayden into Tampa Bay this afternoon we would do that. So we don’t have some grand scheme to manage this long-term. We’re just taking the next step. We’re talking with Tampa, that’s the good news. Hopefully we can get something done, and if not we’ll figure it out then.
Point’s negotiation was never expected to take this long after the Lightning were able to lock up the rest of their core so easily, but this summer has had a different market altogether. Even if Johansson and his client are flexible, they also have seen the Mitch Marner deal come through and admitted today that it’s “certainly a mark on the board that [they] work off of.” The Lightning begin their season on October 3rd against the Florida Panthers.
- The New Jersey Devils have a new president, as Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment has appointed Jake Reynolds to that position. Reynolds will “oversee all business, revenue, strategy and operations” for the organization, working alongside Ray Shero who serves as executive vice president and general manager. Hugh Weber, who has served in the president role since 2013 will move up the ranks in HBSE.
- If the Buffalo Sabres were still planning on moving a defenseman before the season starts, they may have to think again. The team announced today that Brandon Montour will be out for the rest of the preseason after suffering a hand injury and will update his status after training camp. Montour was acquired from the Anaheim Ducks last season and brought big expectations, but isn’t off to a great start for the 2019-20 season. The Sabres still have a glut of defenseman in the organization, but with Montour, Zach Bogosian and Matt Hunwick all out of the picture at the moment things are starting to thin out.
More On Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche
“The Avs aren’t going to pay Mitch Marner money”
That’s what Pierre LeBrun writes in his latest column for The Athletic (subscription required), which examines some of the ongoing negotiations around the league including the one in Colorado with Avalanche forward Mikko Rantanen. While they aren’t ready to pay up to the $10.893MM average annual value Marner received from the Toronto Maple Leafs, LeBrun reports that the team did make Rantanen a long-term offer earlier this month and that they would match an offer sheet “in a heartbeat.”
Rantanen’s agent Mike Liut hit the airwaves this week and turned some stomachs in Colorado when he compared his client to Marner directly, noting that they both are playmaking wingers (though he admitted they go about their offensive games a bit differently). The 22-year old has actually outscored Marner if you combine the last two seasons, and has 13 more goals in his career despite playing fewer games. It’s hard to argue that the pair don’t belong in the same tax bracket, but the Avalanche apparently don’t see it that way.
The Avalanche have plenty of cap room if they ever wanted to go that high, but still have to worry about a few other contracts down the line. Nathan MacKinnon is locked into one of the best contracts in the league for the next four years, but Gabriel Landeskog, Philipp Grubauer and Cale Makar will all need new deals in the summer of 2021. Obviously there is time to handle those negotiations even if Rantanen gets a big deal, but locking him into “Marner money” won’t be the outcome here.
Connor McMichael Sent Back To OHL
With Evgeny Kuznetsov set to miss the first few games of the season due to suspension, there were some who believed that the Washington Capitals could keep first-round pick Connor McMichael on the roster to begin the year. They’ll have to find another center somewhere else instead, as the team has sent McMichael back to the London Knights of the OHL along with several other cuts.
[Related: Training Camp Cuts: 09/19/19]
The 25th pick of June’s draft, McMichael has blazing speed and high-end hockey sense that seemed to develop quickly last season. A depth player for the Hamilton Bulldogs and Knights in 2017-18, he scored just 16 points in 70 games. Last year however saw more responsibility coincide with an offensive explosion, leading the Knights with 72 points in 67 games. The true center will spend this year in the OHL once again and should compete for a spot on the World Junior squad.
Washington meanwhile will have to figure out a different answer down the middle to start the year. Lars Eller is expected to move into the second-line spot in Kuznetsov’s absence, but behind him it’s not clear how things will shake out at this point. His $7.8MM cap hit will fortunately not count during the suspension however, meaning the team doesn’t necessarily need to make a trade right away to clear room as expected.
Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Nicholas Robertson
The Toronto Maple Leafs have inked their top draft pick from this year, signing Nicholas Robertson to a three-year entry-level contract. The 18-year old forward was selected 53rd overall in June and will play in the OHL once again this season.
Robertson had an impressive showing for the Maple Leafs at their recent prospect showcase and will return to the Peterborough Petes with renewed confidence for this season. One of the youngest players in his draft class and the younger brother of Dallas Stars prospect Jason Robertson, the newest Maple Leafs prospect already has big expectations in the organization.
Toronto has focused primarily on rebuilding their defensive prospect cupboard over the last few years, selected Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin in the first rounds of 2017 and 2018 respectively. In fact, all four of the team’s first or second round picks during that period play defense, leaving Robertson as the highest drafted forward since the team selected Auston Matthews in 2016. While the NHL team is loaded with talent up front, they’ll need players like Robertson to fill in the gaps on their entry-level deals after giving out some of the most expensive contracts in the league.
Though the Maple Leafs are sitting at 49/50 contracts at the moment, Robertson’s deal will not count towards that total given that he has already been sent back to junior. Given his young age, the first year of this entry-level deal could potentially slide forward to 2021-22 depending on how the Maple Leafs decide to develop him.
Training Camp Cuts: 09/19/19
Like always, we’ll keep track of all the training camp cuts right here. Keep checking back to see the updated list:
Calgary Flames (per team release)
D Eric Gryba (released from PTO)
Chicago Blackhawks (per team release)
G Alexis Gravel (to Halifax, QMJHL)
Edmonton Oilers (per team release)
G Stuart Skinner (to Bakersfield, AHL)
New York Islanders (per team release)
F Steve Bernier (to Bridgeport, AHL)
F Ryan Bourque (to Bridgeport, AHL)
F Erik Brown (to Bridgeport, AHL)
F Travis St. Denis (to Bridgeport, AHL)
D Ryan MacKinnon (to Bridgeport, AHL)
D Colin McDonald (to Bridgeport, AHL)
D Justin Murray (to Bridgeport, AHL)
D David Quenneville (to Bridgeport, AHL)
D Parker Wotherspoon (to Bridgeport, AHL)
G Jakub Skarek (to Bridgeport, AHL)
G Linus Soderstrom (to Bridgeport, AHL)
G Evan Buitenhuis (to Bridgeport, AHL)
F Felix Bibeau (to Quebec, QMJHL)
F Cole Coskey (to Saginaw, OHL)
F Blade Jenkins (to Saginaw, OHL)
F Brett Neumann (to Oshawa, OHL)
F Reece Newkirk (to Portland, WHL)
D Samuel Bolduc (to Blainville-Boisbriand, QMJHL)
San Jose Sharks (per team release)
F Dillon Hamaliuk (to Kelowna, WHL)
F Jacob McGrew (to Spokane, WHL)
Vancouver Canucks (per team release)
F Vincent Arseneau (to Utica, AHL)
F Jonah Gadjovich (to Utica, AHL)
G Michael DiPietro (to Utica, AHL)
Washington Capitals (per team release)
F Connor McMichael (to London, OHL)
F Aliaksei Protas (to Prince Albert, WHL)
F Eric Florchuk (to Saskatoon, WHL)
D Alex Kannok-Leipert (to Vancouver, WHL)
F Damien Riat (to Biel, NLA)
F Casey Bailey (to Hershey, AHL)
F Kale Kessy (to Hershey, AHL)
F Chris McCarthy (to Hershey, AHL)
F Matt Moulson (to Hershey, AHL)
F Matthew Weis (to Hershey, AHL)
F Steven Whitney (to Hershey, AHL)
D Erik Burgdoerfer (to Hershey, AHL)
D Tommy Hughes (to Hershey, AHL)
G Logan Thompson (to Hershey, AHL)
G Beck Warm (released from ATO)
G Hayden Hawkey (released from ATO)
Thomas Chabot Signs Eight-Year Extension
The Ottawa Senators have put their money where their mouth is, signing Thomas Chabot to an eight-year extension. Starting in 2020-21, Chabot’s new contract will carry an average annual value of $8MM and keep him in a Senators uniform until 2028. GM Pierre Dorion explained just how important it was to sign Chabot:
Thomas is an exceptional talent and an outstanding teammate, who is impactful both on and off the ice. He is the type of player that can develop into a core member of a championship-level team in the National Hockey League. He is an NHL all-star; an elite skater and puck-mover who plays with pace and determination. We are convinced Thomas will have a significant impact on the Ottawa Senators as we develop and grow into a highly competitive team over the coming seasons and we are extremely proud that Thomas will continue to be a key part of our team’s future success moving forward. Today is a great day for the Ottawa Senators franchise.
Chabot’s $64MM contract extension immediately becomes the biggest contract Dorion has signed in his time as Senators’ GM, dwarfing the previous $28.5MM given to Colin White last month. The deal will break down as follows:
- 2020-21: $7.0MM
- 2021-22: $7.0MM
- 2022-23: $4.0MM
- 2023-24: $8.0MM
- 2024-25: $10.0MM + 10-team NTC
- 2025-26: $10.0MM + 10-team NTC
- 2026-27: $10.0MM + 10-team NTC
- 2027-28: $8.0MM + 10-team NTC
The fact that Chabot is the player the Senators have broken the bank for comes as little surprise after the outstanding start to his young career. The 22-year old defenseman has 80 points through his first 134 NHL games, including a 55-point campaign last season that earned him an All-Star game appearance and Norris Trophy votes. Selected 18th overall in 2015, he has quickly become one of the best young defensemen in the entire league and will be the linchpin in any Ottawa turnaround. Getting him under contract before a third season and RFA standoff that could have put his cap hit into the stratosphere will only help down the line, though there will still be some who look at the contract with a dose of skepticism.
Given the Senators’ recent history of not paying their stars, the fact that this contract is heavily back-loaded will raise some eyebrows. The Senators will pay out just $18MM of the $64MM total by the end of 2022-23, leaving a huge chunk of the deal on the table over the last five seasons. That’s not how most long-term deals have been structured in recent years, with players wanting a good portion of the money up front, or at least in signing bonuses. While the 2022-23 salary can be explained away as protection against a potential lockout, Chabot won’t see the biggest financial terms until his actual unrestricted free agent years kick in down the line.
Even with that slight hesitation, the Senators and their fans should be ecstatic to have Chabot under contract for almost a decade. The deal will put him right alongside Jacob Trouba, Brent Burns and John Carlson for the fifth highest-paid defensemen in the league, a ranking he has shown capable of to this point. With still so much development in front of him there’s a real chance that Chabot could be bringing home some individual awards in the future, and hopefully leading the extremely young Senators team back to the postseason at some point.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Training Camp Cuts: 09/18/19
Like always, we’ll keep track of all the training camp cuts right here. Keep checking back to see the updated list:
Arizona Coyotes (per team release)
D Kevin Bahl (to Ottawa, OHL)
Buffalo Sabres (per team release)
F Matej Pekar (to Barrie, OHL)
Columbus Blue Jackets (per team release)
F Tyler Angle (to Windsor, OHL)
D Eric Hjorth (to Sarnia, OHL)
Dallas Stars (per team release)
D Dawson Barteaux (to Red Deer, WHL)
Edmonton Oilers (per team release)
F Luke Esposito (to Bakersfield, AHL)
F Ostap Safin (to Bakersfield, AHL)
F Beau Starrett (to Bakersfield, AHL)
F Nolan Vesey (to Bakersfield, AHL)
D Vincent Desharnais (to Bakersfield, AHL)
D Jake Kulevich (to Bakersfield, AHL)
Los Angeles Kings (per team release)
F Aidan Dudas (to Owen Sound, OHL)
F Arthur Kaliyev (to Hamilton, OHL)
D Jordan Spence (to Moncton, QMJHL)
G Jacob Ingham (to Kitchener, OHL)
G Lukas Parik (to Spokane, WHL)
F Jonathan Yantsis (released from ATO)
D Billy Constantinou (released from ATO)
Montreal Canadiens (per team release)
D Gianni Fairbrother (to Everett, WHL)
New York Islanders (per Blainville-Boisbriand team release)
D Samuel Bolduc (to Blainville-Boisbriand, QMJHL)
Philadelphia Flyers (per team release)
F Egor Serdyuk (to Victoriaville, QMJHL)
D Egor Zamula (to Calgary, WHL)
D Mason Millman (to Saginaw, OHL)
D Wyatte Wylie (to Everett, WHL)
F Max Golod (released from ATO)
F Ben McCartney (released from ATO)
F Mika Cyr (released from ATO)
D Sean Comrie (released from ATO)
Tampa Bay Lightning (per team release)
F Gabriel Fortier (to Baie-Comeau, QMJHL)
F Maxim Cajkovic (to Saint John, QMJHL)
D Quinn Schmiemann (to Kamloops, WHL)
F Eli Zummack (released from ATO)
D Louis Crevier (released from ATO)
D Cody Donaghey (released from ATO)
Vegas Golden Knights (per team release)
D Xavier Bouchard (to Baie-Comeau, QMJHL)
D Connor Corcoran (to Windsor, OHL)
D Kaedan Korczak (to Kelowna, WHL)
F Mason Primeau (to North Bay, OHL)
Poll: Which Star RFA Is Most Likely To Miss Games?
We’re now exactly two weeks from the start of the 2019-20 NHL regular season and eight* restricted free agents are still without contracts. While a few of those names represent depth or role players, five names stand out as potentially disastrous situations. Brayden Point, Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk, Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine have all shown superstar ability in their short careers and would be huge talents to leave on the sideline when the season begins. All five forwards scored at least 30 goals last season, with Laine registering the fewest points (50) and Point the most (92).
It’s hard to know exactly when any of them will finally break down the barrier and report to camp at this point. Rantanen and Laine are skating in Switzerland, Tkachuk is with his old OHL team and there have been reports about nearly all of them that things still aren’t close. Just a few days ago Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweeted that last offer from the Tampa Bay Lightning to Point was a three-year deal that carried just a $5.7MM average annual value. That would represent a much lower number than someone like Mitch Marner signed for, but Tampa Bay has long maintained the philosophy of low-cost bridge deals for their star players coming out of the entry-level system.
It seems likely then that at least one of these five will miss games at the start of the season. Preseason games have already started without them in training camp and opening night is quickly approaching. But who is the most likely to be without a contract on October 2nd? Cast your vote below and make sure to explain your thoughts in the comment section.
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*There are actually several other RFAs that do not have NHL contracts, but they have already signed elsewhere around the globe to play in other leagues.