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Stars Unlikely To Bring Back Both Domi And Dadonov

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Saad Yousuf of The Athletic wrote today that the Dallas Stars will be hard pressed to bring back both Max Domi and Evgenii Dadonov. Both forwards are unrestricted free agents who came over to the Stars in trade deadline moves and they were able to fit in well in their new environment. Dadonov had three goals and 12 assists in 23 games after coming over in a trade from the Montreal Canadiens while Domi had two goals and five assists in 20 games after the trade from the Chicago Blackhawks.

Both players had a similar journey to end up in Dallas, albeit at much different points in their careers. The 34-year-old Dadonov spent six seasons in Florida where he was quite productive putting up 202 points in 280 games before he signed with the Ottawa Senators as a free agent. He was traded three times in the span of a year before ending up in Dallas where he played quite well down the stretch.

28-year-old Domi on the other hand spent three seasons with the Arizona Coyotes where he posted 135 points in 222 games before he was dealt to Montreal, then the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Carolina Hurricanes. He signed a one year contract this past offseason with the Chicago Blackhawks before he was traded to Dallas at the deadline.

Yousuf writes in the article that Dallas general manager Jim Nill would love to have both players back, but cap space will likely be an issue. Dallas has just $7.4MM available for next season and based on the projections of Evolving Hockey Domi figures to get a contract around $4.4MM per year while Dadonov is projected to get $2.7MM. Those numbers would leave Nill with $300K to fill out two roster sports, not something that would be possible.

Yousuf sums up his article by saying that he expects Dadonov to be the likelier or the two to return to the club but doesn’t dive too deep into his logic. While cost is always a factor, Dadonov has struggled to fit in with previous clubs and really thrived under head coach Pete DeBoer. Given that close relationship between player and coach it is possible that Dadonov will select comfort level over money on his next contract. Especially after he was dealt four times during his previous deal.

Evening Notes: Salary Cap, Bailey, Graovac

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Chris Johnston of NorthStar Bets is reporting that the NHL and NHLPA will not be negotiating a higher increase to the 2023-24 NHL salary cap meaning that it appears the cap will be set at $83.5MM. The $1MM increase will be a disappointment to a lot of teams that are pressed up against the cap, while teams with ample room under it will have an opportunity to weaponize their space and acquire assets for bad contracts.

Two weeks ago, Joe Smith of The Athletic laid out the case for a larger cap increase this offseason but it appears the NHL and the players association have opted for one more season with a modest increase. The players are expected to pay off the debt they incurred from the 2020-21 and with that there are a lot of people in the hockey community who believe that the cap could increase by more than $4MM for the 2024-25 season, which would be an absolute boon for players hitting free agency 12 months from now.

In other evening news:

  • Craig Morgan of PHNX Sports tweeted today that there is no truth to the rumors that the Arizona Coyotes have interest in New York Islanders forward Josh Bailey. While a cap dump to Arizona does make sense for the Islanders given Bailey’s recent play, they might have to cough up significant assets in order to facilitate a trade to move on from Bailey. The once productive forward struggled last season posting just eight goals and 17 assists in 64 games and has become a regular on most pundits lists of players who will be bought out. Bailey’s contract was frontloaded so while his cap hit will be $5MM next season, his actual salary owed is just $3.5MM.
  • The KHL’s Admiral Vladivostok announced today that they have signed Canadian forward Tyler Graovac to a one-year contract. The Brampton native was drafted in the seventh round of the 2011 NHL entry draft by the Minnesota Wild and spent four seasons in their system split between the AHL and NHL putting up 12 goals and three assists in 84 NHL games. He will be entering his third season in the KHL after spending last year with Podolsk Vityaz where he put up nine goals and 11 assists in 49 games.

Maple Leafs Notes: Assistant Coach, Schenn, O’Reilly

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are reportedly mulling over several assistant coaches as they look to fill out their coaching staff. While head coach Sheldon Keefe’s future is still up in the air it does appear that he will return for this season. One coach that isn’t returning is assistant coach Spencer Carbery who already accepted the head coaching job with the Washington Capitals. Now Brad Treliving and company are tasked with filling that hole in their staff. Jeff Marek speculated today on the 32 Thoughts Podcast that he’s heard Toronto have shown interest in Mitch Love, Karl Taylor, and Todd Nelson.

Love is likely the biggest name of the three as he is the head coach of the Calgary Wranglers and has had that team play like a well-oiled machine the past two seasons posting a record of 96-33-8-3. The Wranglers are the AHL affiliate to the Calgary Flames which will lead to speculation about a connection with Treliving who of course came over from Calgary just a few weeks ago.

Taylor is the current head coach of the Nashville Predators AHL affiliate in Milwaukee and has been there for five seasons posting a record of 157-90-29-11. He’s struggled to get the Admirals over the hump as they have advanced to the second round just one in his five-year run with the club. Taylor has also coached in the WHL, ECHL and AHL during his 16-year coaching career.

Nelson is the most experienced of the three names that Marek mentioned as he has been coaching for over 20 years in the UHL, AHL and NHL. He was an assistant coach for four years in Dallas before taking over the Hershey Bears this season. Nelson has the club one win away from the AHL Calder Trophy and may have a lot of NHL opportunities thrown his way this summer.

In other evening notes:

  • Elliotte Friedman spoke today on CHEK TV’s Donnie and Dhali show saying that he doesn’t believe the Toronto Maple Leafs and Luke Schenn are very close on a contract extension for the pending unrestricted free agent. Friedman went on to state that the Maple Leafs would love to have the 33-year-old back but are looking at a salary around league minimum while Schenn is looking to cash in on his best offensive season in over a decade after he tied a career high by putting up 22 points in 70 games. Schenn has been playing under six figure deals for the past five seasons and might be looking at his last chance to get a contract with an annual value above $1MM per season.
  • TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button said today on That’s Hockey that he believes Toronto Maple Leafs unrestricted free agent center Ryan O’Reilly should be able to fetch a three-year contract. O’Reilly can no longer drive his own line but is still a solid two-way option for a team looking for help in the middle. O’Reilly dealt with injuries this past season but still put up 16 goals and 14 assists in 53 games. Button’s three-year projection matches Daily Faceoffs contract projection from last month when Frank Seravalli projected a three-year contract for O’Reilly at a cap hit of $5.5MM. If that is the number, it would likely price O’Reilly out of Toronto given that the cap constraints and needs that Toronto will have this summer.

Goalie Notes: Andersen/Raanta, Jarry, Korpisalo

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The Carolina Hurricanes will have a big decision to make this offseason when it comes to their crease. It seemed like a forgone conclusion that one of Frederik Andersen or Antti Raanta would be allowed to walk in free agency as the Hurricanes already have netminder Pyotr Kochetkov locked up for a very reasonable $2MM per season. But according to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic the Hurricanes appear to be in negotiations with both Andersen and Raanta. While it seems unusual for a team that normally has an internal budget to stash a $2MM player in the minors, Kochetkov is still waiver exempt for one more season meaning Carolina could roll back the trio for one more year. That might be the prudent thing to do given that the club needed all three goalies this past year to navigate the various injuries that they dealt with throughout the campaign. Andersen was just okay in the regular season but was terrific in the playoffs, while Raanta had a good regular season but had his fair share of struggles in the postseason.

In other goalie notes:

  • LeBrun writes that Pittsburgh Penguins new boss Kyle Dubas has yet to approach the Tristan Jarry situation in any meaningful way and that things still appear to be status quo. Dubas has historically been reluctant to commit major dollars or term to goaltenders and given the injury history and inconsistency in Jarry’s game, it seems unlikely he would commit either to the 28-year-old. Jarry is likely looking for a long-term deal and a return to Pittsburgh seems unlikely unless the bottom falls out of the market, and he decides Pittsburgh is a good soft landing for him. Jarry went 24-13-7 this past season as he and the Penguins missed the playoffs for the first time in 16 seasons. The Surrey, British Columbia native posted a .909 save percentage for the second time in the past three seasons and has yet to demonstrate that he can win in the playoffs.
  • LeBrun writes that netminder Joonas Korpisalo and the Los Angeles Kings have had some initial conversations on a contract extension but given how close the Kings are to the cap they may have a tough time fitting in a big cap number on a goaltender. It appears Joonas Korpisalo will hit the open market and he could be an intriguing name for teams looking to make a move in the crease. While he was terrific this past season, Korpisalo has posted a goals saved above expected number higher than -7 every season from 2017-18 through 2021-22 and a save percentage above .915 just once. Given his track record he may be best suited in a 1A/1B tandem situation similar to the Carolina Hurricanes structure with Andersen and Raanta.

Afternoon Notes: Hellebuyck, Bear, Thompson

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Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic wrote today that Winnipeg Jets netminder Connor Hellebuyck is looking for a contract with an average annual value around $9.5MM. LeBrun says that teams looking to trade for the 30-year-old are aware of what Hellebuyck’s camp are seeking in contract negotiations. If Hellebuyck were to get that salary it would put him in the same pay bracket as Tampa Bay Lighting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Hellebuyck was the 2020 Vezina award winner for top goaltender and has a long track record of putting up elite numbers. However, he has had a handful of poor seasons and with teams having just seen the Vegas Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup with Adin Hill between the pipes, there might be a hesitancy to pay a premium in a trade and an expensive cap hit for a goalie who is on the wrong side of 30. You can’t fault Hellebuyck for asking for the moon as he is nominated once again for the Vezina award after a terrific season in Winnipeg posting a 37-25-2 record with a .920 save percentage and a 2.49 goals against average.

In other afternoon notes:

  • Rick Dhaliwal of CHEK TV tweeted today that it appears the Vancouver Canucks have had discussions with defenseman Ethan Bear’s representatives about several contract possibilities. The tweet comes on the heels of a conversation with Bear’s agent Jason Davidson who said that they’ve discussed several options, but a one-year deal may be the way to go for the 25-year-old. It’s an interesting idea from Bear’s camp given that the defender is out until December after undergoing shoulder surgery this week. Bear is a year away from unrestricted free agency and the allure of picking his long term destination may be worth the roll of the dice.
  • Ben Gotz of the Las Vegas Review-Journal tweeted today that Bruce Cassidy told reporters that goaltender Logan Thompson is skating and should be 100% by training camp. Thompson started the year as Vegas’ number one goaltender but suffered a lower body injury in February and did not play again. When healthy the 26-year-old posted good numbers going 21-13-3 with a .915 save percentage and 2.65 goals against average. If Thompson is ready to go it could give Vegas leverage in their contract negotiations with pending free agent netminder Adin Hill. Thompson would be a solid fallback option should Hill elect to test the market and move on.

Free Agent Focus: Vegas Golden Knights

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Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Golden Knights. 

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Nolan Patrick – Patrick missed the entire 2022-23 season as the former second overall pick has dealt with multiple injuries during his short career that date all the back to his junior hockey days. It was the second full season Patrick has missed as he also missed the 2019-20 season with a migraine disorder.

Patrick came over to Vegas from the Nashville Predators in a trade for Cody Glass back in July 2021 and has played just 25 games for them putting up two goals and five assists. It seems likely that Patrick will be non-tendered by the Golden Knights making him an unrestricted free agent. Should this happen it’s hard to predict what would be the next step for the 24-year-old Winnipeg native.

When healthy, Patrick was a very productive third line center who could play with some edge. But given the litany of health issues he has dealt with the past few seasons it could be possible that he elects to retire or to try and continue his career outside of the NHL. If he chooses to hang up his skates it would be a sad ending for a player who showed a lot of promise as a 19 and 20-year-old with the Philadelphia Flyers.

F Brett Howden – Howden’s regular season was a disappointment as he produced just six goals and seven assists in 54 games and spent most of the time buried in his own end. He was fortunate that during his time on the ice his goaltenders bailed he and his linemates out with an on-ice save percentage of 93.3%. His playoff performance however was a completely different story. Howden found his offensive game and was able to almost replicate his regular season numbers as he had five goals and five assists in 22 playoff games.

At this point in his career, it is hard to pin down what Howden is. His season was the tale of two different performances and its almost a microcosm of the 25-year-old’s career thus far. He’s shown glimpses of being an effective fourth line center, but he has also had stretches where he doesn’t look like he belongs in the league. Vegas will have a tough decision on their hands with Howden and may elect to bring him back short term once again. Last summer Howden signed a one-year deal for $1.5MM and I would expect something in the same ballpark again this summer.

Other RFAs: D Connor Corcoran, F Pavel Dorofeyev, F Maxim Marushev, D Brayden Pachal, G Jiri Patera

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Adin Hill – Hill had a wild journey to becoming the starting netminder for a Stanley Cup champion. He became an afterthought in San Jose last season and was dealt in August 2022 for a fourth-round pick in 2024. He then found himself caught up in a numbers game and was stuck behind Logan Thompson and eventually Laurent Brossoit. Hill went two full months without playing until he was called upon in the second round. He came in cold to help the Golden Knights dispatch of the Edmonton Oilers and from there it became his crease. Hill went on to post an 11-4 record in the playoffs with a .932 save percentage and a 2.17 goals-against average.

His playoff numbers this year were dominant, however throughout Hill’s career he has struggled to find consistency. Coming into this year Hill had posted several seasons of average or below average production. If you take a deeper dive into Hill’s numbers and look at his goals saved above expected, he has posted a -7 since 2017-18. While the number is one of many that can be used to demonstrate value, it does show that Hill has been slightly below average for most of his career.

This will make for a very interesting negotiation. Hill will be looking to cash in on his run with a long-term big money deal. It’s unclear what Vegas will be looking to do; they have several other netminders in their system and do have to consider signing some other pieces. They may elect to go short term with Hill to see if he is in fact their goaltender of the future. I would expect Hill to be looking for a salary in the range for $4MM-$5MM annually on his next contract.

F Ivan Barbashev – Barbashev is now a two-time Stanley Cup champion having won his first title back in 2019 with the St. Louis Blues. Barbashev was a big part of this year’s title with Vegas as he put up seven goals and 11 assists in 22 playoff games after posting 16 goals and 29 assists in 82 regular season games. Although his regular season numbers represented a drop from his 60 points last season with the Blues, the 27-year-old was able to find another gear when the games mattered the most. Barbashev has improved in every season since entering the NHL as he started his career slow and looked like he might never find his offensive touch.

While he was a big part of Vegas’ most effective line in the playoffs, it does look like Barbashev may be squeezed out by cap constraints. With a weak free agent market and multiple teams interested in his services, Barbashev is very likely to test the free agency waters and maximize his income. He made $2.25MM last season and should be able to double his salary on a long-term deal. There was a lot of interest in his services when St. Louis was dangling him at the trade deadline and with another Stanley Cup on his resume that interest has only grown.

G Laurent Brossoit – Brossoit was terrific in the regular season for Vegas but couldn’t keep himself in the net in the playoffs as he fell apart during the second round series against the Edmonton Oilers. Brossoit posted a 7-0-3 record in the regular season with a 2.17 goals against average and a .927 save percentage. While those numbers are terrific, he was only able to dress in 11 regular season games. In the playoffs his play was far less impressive as he went 5-2 with a 3.18 goals against average and a .894 save percentage.

Brossoit is coming off a two-year deal that paid him $2.325MM in each of the last two years and figures to get something similar in free agency. Pittsburgh Penguins backup Casey DeSmith received a two-year contract for $1.8MM per last offseason and Brossoit should be able to top that given that he is a more capable backup and someone who can operate as a 1B option in a pinch.

Other UFAs:  F Teddy Blueger, F Phil Kessel, F Spencer Foo,

Projected Cap Space

Just days after winning the Stanley Cup the Vegas Golden Knights management will have a quick turnaround to try and prepare for what should be a busy offseason. The Golden Knights are currently just $3.5MM under the salary cap for next season with some key pieces left to sign from their cup winning group. The good news for Vegas is that they have 21 players already signed for next season including many of the key pieces that brought them a title this season.

The situation for the Golden Knights is not unlike the 2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins who were able to capture the 2016 Stanley Cup and bring almost their entire group back for a sequel in 2017. Vegas could be in position to do the same.

The biggest hurdle that Vegas will face is in the crease. After missing the entire season with an injury Robin Lehner is not guaranteed to return. He has been rehabbing but will all the injuries and off ice issues he has had to endure Vegas may buyout the veteran if he isn’t a candidate to stay on LTIR. Lehner has two more seasons left on his contract at a cap hit of $5MM, which could be a comparable to what netminder Adin Hill would fetch on the open market as an unrestricted free agent.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vancouver Canucks Buy Out Oliver Ekman-Larsson

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The Vancouver Canucks have made the first buyout of the summer, announcing that they have bought out defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Ekman-Larsson had four years left on an eight-year $66MM contract he signed with the Arizona Coyotes in July of 2018, but with the buyout it will allow the 31-year-old to become an unrestricted free agent where he will be free to start fresh with any team he chooses. Ekman-Larsson posted two goals and 20 assists this past season in 54 games with the Canucks while averaging 20 minutes of ice time a night.

Vancouver will free up some desperately needed cap space as they head into a summer where they will be trying to sign star forward Elias Pettersson to a long-term contract extension. The Canucks will save $7.1MM in cap space this season with the buyout and $4.9MM next year. They will save $2.5MM the two years after that and then have a cap charge of $2.13MM for four years.

While it is an expensive penalty to pay, it was a necessary move for the Canucks. Ekman-Larsson’s play has fallen off a cliff in recent years as the once elite defender has struggled since the 2019-20 season. There was a time when it was a given that he would play 25 minutes a night, put up 40-50 points a season and post terrific underlying numbers. But those days are long gone and his play as of late is more in line with that of a third pairing defenseman. The Karlskrona, Sweden native hasn’t posted 30 points since the 2019-20 season and hasn’t posted much in the way of positive analytics since that time.

Ekman-Larsson’s fall from elite status is surprising, but the buyout may not be the worst thing in the world for him. His salary forced him to play up in the lineup in a spot that was probably asking too much given where his skillset is at. With the buyout he could find a situation where he is paid like a 5-6 defenseman and deployed like one too. This could ultimately lead to a bit of a resurgence for Ekman-Larsson. However, if another team offers to pay him like a 3-4 defenseman based on name recognition, they may be disappointed with the results that they see, not unlike the Ryan Suter situation with the Dallas Stars.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was the first to report the buyout.

Evening Notes: Sabres, Bezeau, USHL

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Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News reported today that the Buffalo Sabres are in contract discussions with a pair of former first overall picks. The Sabres are trying to work out extensions with franchise defenseman Rasmus Dahlin as well as Owen Power who was a workhorse in his rookie season. Both men are eligible for to sign contract extensions on July 1st and have expressed interest in inking long-term with the Sabres. Lysowski acknowledges that the Sabres don’t have any rush to sign either man to an extension as they both still have a year left on their current deals, but if they were to get the new contracts done on July 1st it would give the Sabres some cost certainty as they head into free agency at what is a critical point in their rebuild.

Dahlin will be looking for a long-term contract and could get something in the range of $9MM to $10MM on a long-term deal. The Swedish defender is coming off a season in which he put up 15 goals and 58 assists in 78 games while playing almost 26 minutes a night. For Power, he could sign long term but may elect to sign a bridge deal in the hopes of maximizing his earnings when he is more established and the salary cap has gone up. In his rookie season he played almost 24 minutes a night and had four goals and 31 assists in 79 games.

In other evening notes:

  • The Charlotte Checkers have announced that they have re-signed right winger Riley Bezeau to a two-year AHL contract. Bezeau spent this past season in the Queen City putting up five goals and three assists in 51 AHL games and finishing second on the team with 84PIM. The 21-year-old was previously an assistant captain of the Saint John Sea Dogs team that captured the Memorial Cup in 2021-22 in a season that saw him post 11 goals and 16 assists in 56 games.
  • The USHL announced today that Glenn Hefferan has been selected as the 11th president and commissioner in league history. Heffernan will take over on July 1st and is familiar with USA hockey having been a board and committee member for several years in various capacities as well as a member of the USA Hockey Executive Committee since June 2021. Back in 2012 Heffernan was awarded the Dr. John J. McMullen Award for service to New Jersey Amateur Hockey, an award he was given by the New Jersey Devils.

Devils Expected To File For Arbitration With Timo Meier

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The New Jersey Devils have been busy today, fresh off signing Jesper Bratt to an eight-year extension Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman is reporting that the club will likely take forward Timo Meier to team elected arbitration. This doesn’t prevent either side from continuing to negotiate a long-term deal, but it does give the Devils some leverage as they head into conversations with the 26-year-old. The team elected arbitration could result in a salary that is 85% of Meier’s 2022-23 salary which came in at $10MM.

Meier came over to the Devils in late February after a blockbuster trade with the San Jose Sharks. He took some time to settle in with New Jersey and put up nine goals and five assists in 21 games with the Devils to finish out the regular season. He would ultimately finish his season with 40 goals and 26 assists in 78 games split between the two teams. In the playoffs Meier struggled mightily posting just two goals and two assists in 11 games and was largely a non-factor in the team’s series win over the New York Rangers going pointless in seven games and suffering a huge hit from Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba. Meier was much stronger in the team’s second round series against Carolina putting up four points in four games.

The Devils decision to file for arbitration isn’t all that surprising given that they are largely negotiating from a position of weakness as Meier holds the hammer in their contract discussion sitting just a year away from unrestricted free agency. He could simply just go to arbitration and walk away next summer.

As mentioned earlier, with the team elected arbitration Meier could see his salary reduced by as much as 15% depending on how the arbitration process plays out. While that won’t do much on a long-term contract, it could lead to an acceleration in the contract discussions with Meier’s camp which would allow New Jersey some clarity as they head into the draft and free agency in the upcoming weeks. The Devils have a busy summer ahead as they try to build on their first series win in over a decade.

Winnipeg Jets Sign Fabian Wagner

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The Winnipeg Jets announced today that they have signed forward Fabian Wagner to a three-year, entry-level contract. The deal runs through the 2025-26 season and carries a cap hit of $858,333. Wagner was Winnipeg’s sixth-round selection in the 2022 NHL entry draft and is currently scheduled to take part in the Jets development camp in early July.

The Nykoping, Sweden native spent this past season back home playing with Linkoping’s junior and SHL teams. In the SHL he was held pointless in 22 games, however for their under-20 squad he put up 11 goals and 22 assists in 33 games. He found less success in the playoffs putting up just a single assist in four games.

At 6’0” and 176 pounds, Wagner is a bit undersized, however he is regarded as an excellent passer and a bit of a playmaker. Scouts also consider him to be patient with the puck and not a player who will try and force a play that isn’t there. He does have some playmaking to his game evidenced by his production as he has averaged around a point a game in the J20 Nationell as well as the World Juniors where he had two goals in four assists in seven games while representing Sweden.

Winnipeg has a lot of veteran forwards in front of Wagner on the depth charts, however depending on how their summer shakes out they could be entering a rebuild which would leave a lot of opportunities for him to make his mark in both the AHL and NHL.  Wagner is likely a longshot to make it to the NHL, but if he can continue to develop his game in the Jets system, he may be able to breakthrough and play a role in Winnipeg’s bottom six. This contract indicates that the Jets are encouraged by the development of one of their late picks from last year’s draft and should give the 19-year-old some confidence when he comes over to North America to begin his professional career.

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