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Can The Pittsburgh Penguins Actually Sign Tomas Tatar?

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There aren’t many impact unsigned free agents remaining at this point in the offseason, but one name of note is forward Tomas Tatar. Tatar has been linked to several teams, including the Buffalo Sabres as an inexpensive replacement for the injured Jack Quinn. One team that popped up in the rumor mill last week was the Pittsburgh Penguins. Rob Rossi of The Athletic wrote that the Penguins were keenly interested but it all came down to whether Tatar would get a guaranteed contract offer elsewhere as the Penguins appeared to be offering a PTO for training camp in Pittsburgh with the expectation of a contract after. But can the Penguins realistically fit in another contract for a player coming off a season in which he scored 20 goals and 28 assists in 82 games?

In most off-seasons, the answer to that question would be an emphatic no. But the summer of 2023 has been unlike any other offseason. Players like Blake Wheeler have signed for less than $1MM annually. Matt Duchene took a one-year contract for $3MM despite being a year removed from topping 80 points, and Tatar remains unsigned despite providing consistent secondary scoring.

But all of this doesn’t necessarily mean the answer is a resounding yes, the Penguins would need to do some cap gymnastics to fit Tatar into the sliver of room they have under the salary cap ceiling. Currently, the Penguins have just north of $220K, which is obviously well below the NHL minimum.

Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas has said previously that he would use waivers as a means of becoming cap compliant, and the Penguins have plenty of players who could be placed on waivers to open up room for Tatar. Alexander Nylander and Rem Pitlick are two players that could be exposed and sent to the AHL to open up the room, but would that be enough to sign Tatar? The answer is a giant unknown at this time, but as we inch closer to training camp it becomes more and more possible.

Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now explored another idea in an article as he wondered if a potential Jeff Carter trade would be possible. The 38-year-old London, Ontario native is in the final year of his contract with a cap hit of $3.125MM and is coming off a season in which he scored just 13 goals and 16 assists in 79 games and looked lost at times both offensively and defensively. Kingerski provides options in the article, the most interesting of which would have the Penguins retain 50% of Carter’s contract and staple a second-round pick to him to facilitate a move. While this scenario seems possible, the biggest caveat to a potential deal would be Carter’s full no-movement clause. Given all these moving parts, it seems unlikely any contending team would have room to take on even half of Carter’s cap hit and even less likely that Carter would waive his no-move to make it happen. Kyle Dubas has worked one miracle this summer in moving out Jeff Petry and Mikael Granlund for Erik Karlsson, but can he make another one happen?

Much like the Karlsson situation it feels like the longer this drags out the likelier it becomes the player ends up with the Penguins. But to make it happen Tatar is going to have to take a massive pay cut and perhaps accept just a one-year contract. A far cry from the $3.3MM annually that Daily Faceoff projected he would get on a three-year deal when free agency opened.

Free Agent Profile: Max Comtois

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Two years ago, it seemed unfathomable that Max Comtois would be an unsigned free agent in late August. But it is 2023 and that’s where the former second-round pick finds himself after being non-tendered a qualifying offer by the Anaheim Ducks. Comtois had a terrific pandemic shortened 2020-21 in which he posted 16 goals and 17 assists in 55 games. At the time he appeared to be on the verge of becoming a complete winger who could be counted on to provide solid secondary scoring and strong play in all three zones. The Ducks promptly signed Comtois to a two-year deal that carried an annual cap hit just north of $2MM.

After signing his bridge deal things quickly began to go south for the Longueuil, Quebec native. In 2021-22, the 24-year-old began the season with just a single assist in his first 13 games and then missed 16 games with a hand injury that required him to have surgery. Upon his return, he played better but couldn’t recapture his scoring touch as he put up just six goals and nine assists in his final 39 games.

With the Ducks firmly in a rebuild, Comtois continued to struggle offensively this past season and missed significant time with several upper and lower body ailments. Comtois was out for 14 games due to injuries and when he was in the lineup he produced just nine goals and 10 assists in 64 games.

While he has battled injuries and inconsistency over the past few years, it is still surprising to see a young forward with a recent track record of success remain unsigned. It truly speaks to the flat-cap environment that teams find themselves in. Despite the disappointment of possibly being forced to sign a professional tryout, I do think that Comtois will sign an NHL contract for next season. He may just need to prove himself first to do so.

Stats

2022-23: 64 GP, 9-10-19, -20 rating, 76 PIMS, 89 shots, 52.3% faceoffs, 42.2% CF, 13:49 ATOI
Career: 210 GP, 38-48-86, -35 rating, 193 PIMS, 296 shots, 41.7% faceoffs, 45.4% CF, 14:23 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Comtois is unlikely to be picky at this point in the summer, he is just looking to remain in the league and show what he can do. He is from the Quebec area but given that the Montreal Canadiens have been trying to move out forwards, they are unlikely to be interested in Comtois, even if his youth does fit the timeline of their future competitive window.

Let’s start in the East. The Pittsburgh Penguins have been rumored to have interest in Tomas Tatar as they look to add some depth scoring to their bottom six. The Penguins would like to bring Tatar in on a PTO to see if he fits. However, if the former Devils forward can lock on to a team with guaranteed money that could open the door for Pittsburgh to look elsewhere. Possibly to Comtois. It’s no secret that general manager Kyle Dubas loves to have a lot of depth forwards to provide for call-ups and to keep the club’s AHL affiliate competitive. Should he sign with Pittsburgh, Comtois would be in a serious battle for a spot on the Penguins bottom two lines, but he would certainly be in the mix. He could also fill in for Jake Guentzel during his early season absence on the Penguins top line next to Sidney Crosby.

Staying in the East, the Ottawa Senators could really use some help in their bottom six forward group. Outside of Pittsburgh, it’s hard to find a team who leaned more heavily on their top six forwards last year. And given the look of the Senators current bottom six, it could be more of the same this year. The Senators are entering the season with playoff aspirations but are looking at having several rookies on their third and fourth lines which could lead to a lot of growing pains early in the season. Comtois has had his struggles, but if they were to acquire him, they would have another known entity to insert onto their third or fourth line.

Out West, it was rumored earlier in the summer that the Vancouver Canucks had interest in Comtois, but a deal never came to fruition. Vancouver has a bit of a logjam right now, both up against the cap and with the number of bodies they currently have in the forward group who are going to require NHL minutes. However, a forward like Dakota Joshua could become a casualty should Vancouver opt to sign Comtois. The other option for the Canucks would be to try a jettison a higher-priced forward to become cap compliant, and then sign Comtois as their replacement. Comtois could bring a lot to the Canucks as he does play with an edge and can play in all three zones and provide depth scoring. The worst-case scenario for Vancouver would be to bury Comtois and his cap hit in the minors if he didn’t work out with the NHL group.

Projected Contract

Barring a dramatic turn of events, Comtois is likely going to have to take a rather large pay cut for the upcoming season from the $2.5MM he made last year. It is still possible he could hit a seven-figure salary but given how little cap space is available around the NHL he is unlikely to exceed more than $1MM on a one-year deal. There are several talented forwards who remain unsigned which has led to Comtois becoming a bit of an afterthought. But given his youth there will likely be a team out there willing to roll the dice on a player who has shown promise recently. However, I think teams will want to have a look at Comtois before offering a guaranteed contract just to make sure he is a fit in their bottom six, and to allow for maximum flexibility.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

College Defenseman Will Francis Suffers Cancer Relapse

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In sad news, University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs defenseman Will Francis has announced via the teams official Twitter page that he has had a relapse of cancer that he has battled since March 2020. Francis released the statement earlier today that he had a relapse of the Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia that was discovered during a routine post-recovery checkup. Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia is a cancer of the blood and bone marrow.

Francis first discovered the cancer back in March 2020 during the height of the pandemic when a series of blood tests revealed that his white blood cell count was almost 20 times higher than normal. This result indicated that Francis had Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia which he battled for 848 days until July 2022, at which time he completed chemotherapy.

Francis heroically returned last season, dressing in 28 games for the Bulldogs posting a single assist and a -1 rating with 22 PIM. He is a former sixth-round draft pick of the Anaheim Ducks from the 2019 NHL entry draft and was a standout stay-at-home defenseman with the Cedar Rapids RoughRiders of the USHL prior to being drafted.

Although he is once again going through a harrowing experience, Francis appears positive and optimistic about the future. He states in the release that he expects to be back on the Minnesota-Duluth campus this upcoming January and hopes to be on the ice with his teammates at the same time.

Trade Market Quiet For Noah Hanifin

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It appears that the holdup for a potential Noah Hanifin trade has been due to an underwhelming trade market. This comes from Sportsnet 960’s Pat Steinberg who also reported a few days ago that the trade market had been soft this summer for one of the Calgary Flames’ other trade chips Mikael Backlund.

Both Backlund and Hanifin will be free agents next summer, and while Backlund expressed an interest in seeing the season play out before signing an extension, Hanifin has said he doesn’t plan to sign a deal to extend his stay in Calgary.

Under normal circumstances, a 26-year-old first-pairing defenseman would be highly coveted, but as Steinberg reports, the Flames just haven’t received any strong offers. The Pittsburgh Penguins reportedly had interest earlier in the summer, but nothing ever materialized on the trade front, and given their pursuit of Erik Karlsson one must wonder if Penguins general manager used Calgary as leverage to get a better deal for Pittsburgh.

Lyle Richardson of The Hockey News wrote today that when the deal for Karlsson happened there was an expectation that there would be movement on the Hanifin front, but it has yet to materialize. He also speculates that perhaps the Flames will keep the rearguard until the March trade deadline when more teams will have accrued cap space due to injuries.

On the ice, Hanifin has been everything Calgary could have hoped for when they acquired him from the Carolina Hurricanes in a 2018 trade. He has averaged over 21 minutes a night during his time in Calgary and has put up 31 goals and 125 assists in 359 games with the Flames. Any potential team that acquires the Boston native would be getting a player capable of playing first-pairing minutes or being an exceptional second-pairing defenseman. Hanifin is an excellent skater and can generally be counted on for 35-40 points per season. He is in the final year of a contract that carries a $4.95MM cap hit and reportedly has an 8-team modified no-trade clause, meaning that Calgary has quite a few options to facilitate a potential move.

At the beginning of the summer, it looked as though the Flames would be busy in the trade market with several players approaching free agency. But, thus far general manager Craig Conroy has been quiet and may just start the season with several prominent free agents. It will make for interesting theatre as Flames fans don’t have to look back far to remember the exodus of top-end talent in the summer of 2022 that saw Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk take their talents south of the border. Calgary can ill afford to lose more high-end players for nothing and will likely be looking to make a flurry of moves in-season unless something materializes in the upcoming weeks.

Free Agent Profile: Jaroslav Halak

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Jaroslav Halak has been on quite the journey since he led the Montreal Canadiens to back-to-back playoff upsets of the President’s Trophy winning Washington Capitals and defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins back in 2010. Halak was so effective in that run to the Conference Finals that many Canadiens fans wanted the team to keep him and trade his partner, Carey Price. Montreal opted to keep Price and shipped Halak to the St. Louis Blues for a package that included Lars Eller.

The early returns in St. Louis were good as Halak was solid in his first season with the Blues and even better in year two when he and Brian Elliott won the William M. Jennings Trophy for the fewest goals against in the league. That year Halak also garnered Vezina Trophy votes and ultimately finished sixth in voting as he sported a stellar .926 save percentage and a 1.97 goals-against average.

Eventually, the shine wore off in St. Louis and Halak lost the net to Elliot and was traded to the Washington Capitals midway through the 2013-14 campaign. He played well for the Capitals in limited action but the team ultimately missed the playoffs.

That summer, the Bratislava, Czechoslovakia native signed a four-year deal with the New York Islanders with an annual cap hit of $4.5M. The Islanders received excellent goaltending from Halak in his first season with the team as he went 38-17-4 with a .914 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average. In fact, through his first three years on Long Island Halak posted a save percentage above .910 every year, and kept his quality starts percentage over 50%, which means his save percentage was above the average more often than not.

It was in the final year of his contract with the Islanders that the cracks started to show in Halak’s game as he struggled in 2017-18 and posted the worst numbers of his career up to that point with a .908 save percentage and a 3.19 goals-against average.

Understanding that his days as a starter were likely ending, Halak signed a two-year deal with the Boston Bruins to back-up Tuukka Rask. Halak ended up playing in almost half of Boston’s games that year and outplayed Rask for large portions of the season in what was one of the best years of Halak’s career as he went 22-11-4 with a save percentage of .922 and a goals-against average of 2.34. Halak would win another Jennings Trophy the following year posting a .919 save percentage in what was another fantastic campaign for the netminder. That season in Boston, the 2019-20 campaign is the last time that Halak has posted a save percentage over .910.

Since the 2019-20 season, Halak hasn’t been able to be counted on to provide consistent play. Halak hasn’t started more than 25 games in the past three seasons, and although that isn’t entirely his fault thanks to injuries and a pandemic, he has been a tick below average when he has played.

At 38-years-old Halak and 17 seasons into his career, Halak has a lot of miles on his body, but he did indicate a month ago that he would like to continue playing. Halak reportedly talked about an extension with the New York Rangers prior to free agency, but ultimately the Rangers decided to sign Jonathan Quick to be their backup, which is a definite downgrade from Halak at this point. Halak needs just five wins to reach 300 and given his track record he should be presented soon with an opportunity to be a backup next season.

Stats

2022-23: 25 GP, 10-9-5, 2.72 GAA, .903 SV%, 1 SO
Career: 581 GP, 295-189-69, 2.50 GAA, .915 SV%, 53 SO 

Potential Suitors

At Halak’s age he probably isn’t looking to get pummeled with fifty shots every night which means we can likely filter out any rebuilding teams. At first glance, the New Jersey Devils and St. Louis Blues are two teams who have a need for depth in net.

The Devils are a team that feels like they are on the cusp of building something great, their defense is mobile and quick, they can push the pace and defend. Their forward group is skilled, fast, and comes at you in waves. But goaltending is their Achilles heel. The Devils have reportedly shown interest in several goaltending options including Connor Hellebuyck and John Gibson, but both of those goaltenders would require large commitments that the Devils might not want to make. But the Devils do need some help in the crease as they will once again enter this season relying on the tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid. Both goaltenders are relatively inexperienced, and while they backed the Devils to the second round of the playoffs last season, they might need an extra set of hands to get the club there again. Neither Schmid, nor Vanecek have a history of playing at a high level in the NHL for an extended period, which means that even a league-average goaltender like Halak could give a big boost to the team’s depth chart and offer up a solution should either man falter.

For the St. Louis Blues, they’ve made some interesting moves over the past year but haven’t done much to address their goaltending. It’s fair to say that the Blues goaltending was porous last season. Jordan Binnington, now in the third year of a six-year $36MM contract, hasn’t been good in two seasons posting a 45-41-10 regular season record, with a 3.24 goals-against average and a .897 SV%. If you take a deep dive into his numbers the picture gets even worse, in the last two seasons Binnington has posted a minus-26.6 GSAA, meaning that he gave up almost 27 goals more than the average NHL goalie would on the same number of shots. Couple this with St. Louis deciding to run with rookie Joel Hofer as a backup and you have a potential recipe for disaster for the Blues. No disrespect to Hofer, who had a terrific year with the Springfield Thunderbirds last season in the AHL, but he is inexperienced and is no guarantee to step up should Binnington falter for a third year in a row. Adding a netminder like Halak might give the Blues a good safety net in case one of their two goaltenders were to struggle or get hurt. He wouldn’t cost anything in the way of assets and could give the Blues some peace of mind.

Projected Contract

A month ago, it seemed like a sure thing that Halak would get a one-year NHL deal for a bit over $1MM. Now a month into free agency, I’m not so sure. I think that barring an off-season training injury before training camps open, Halak will have to settle for a number three role on a team with good depth in net, or a PTO. The experienced veteran would provide a good fallback option in a pinch and can give guidance to younger goalies who might be ahead of him on the depth chart.

I’d be surprised at this point if Halak got over $1MM on his next contract, however, with that being said, injuries can create urgency quickly, especially in net. Halak could be the first netminder who gets a call from a team with thin goalie depth after they get stung by the injury bug. Even if this were to happen, Halak is like to end up with a six-figure deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

David Krejčí To Announce Retirement Soon

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According to Jimmy Murphy of Boston Hockey Now, David Krejčí will announce his retirement from the NHL and hockey in the very near future. Krejčí returned to the Boston Bruins this past season after taking a one-year hiatus to play overseas with Olomouc HC in the Czech League during the 2021-22 season. He had a good year for Boston but did wear down a bit towards the end of the year. In his return, Krejčí had 16 goals and 40 assists in 70 games while centering Boston’s second line.

Murphy mentions in his piece that rumors have been swirling that Krejčí may return to Czechia to play for Olomouc once again, but an NHL source of his has told him that won’t happen. There is, however, an outside chance he could play for the national team, which would leave the door open for Krejčí to dress for Czechia in the 2024 World Championships.

It has been quite a run for the former 2004 second-round pick. Through his NHL career Krejčí has posted 231 goals and 555 assists in 1032 regular season games to go along with a +166 plus-minus rating. He was also a clutch playoff performer with Boston, helping to lead the team to three Stanley Cup finals and one Stanley Cup title in 2011 in which he led the Bruins in scoring with 12 goals and 11 assists in 25 games.

Krejčí’s retirement will bring the Bruins closer to the end of an era as only Brad Marchand and Milan Lucic remain from the squad that won the Stanley Cup 2011. It will also close out the run of one of the best 1-2 center combinations we’ve seen in recent memory. Krejčí and Patrice Bergeron brought something unique to the center position that few other teams had, both men could create offense and play a solid two-way game. Bergeron was one of the best at it, but it always felt like Krejčí’s ability to play on both sides of the puck was overlooked because of who he played behind. Krejčí was a unique talent and will certainly be missed by the Bruins and their fans.

Free Agent Profile: Paul Stastny

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The height of free agency ended a little less than a month ago and once again veteran center Paul Stastny finds himself without an NHL contract heading into next season. Unlike, most younger players Stastny probably isn’t too concerned about financial security as he has made nearly $85MM during his career (CapFriendly). Stastny has also been here before, having waited until August 23rd to sign last summer with the Carolina Hurricanes. Stastny may find himself unsigned late in the offseason once again but given that he is just a year removed from a 45-point season, there is reason to believe he will find an NHL job next year.

Stastny began his career as a perennial 70-point player on a talented but inconsistent Colorado Avalanche team that could never seem to get over the hump. He remained an important top-six piece as his career progressed, but as injuries started to impact his body, he began to descend into a 50–60-point scorer. By the time he signed a four-year $28MM contract as a free agent with the St. Louis Blues in 2014, he had settled in as a 40–50-point contributor that could post solid faceoff results and contribute in other ways. Stastny put up 40 or more points in each of his three and a half seasons with the Blues and was dealt to the Winnipeg Jets at the trade deadline in 2018.

After a cup of coffee in Winnipeg, Stastny signed with the Vegas Golden Knights in the summer of 2018. He spent two years with the team and failed to meet the expectations that came with his three-year $19.5MM contract. Stastny put up 80 points in 121 games with Vegas, but his production didn’t live up to his $6.5MM cap hit and he was traded back to Winnipeg in the 2020 offseason.

Stastny remained a solid center option in his two seasons in Winnipeg and continued to be a consistent 40-point threat despite being in his mid-30’s. Last summer, Stastny was coming off the aforementioned 45-point season and seemed like a good bet to sign a decent one-year deal, but as the height of free agency came and went, Stastny was left without a dance partner and eventually signed a one-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes for $1.5MM. The deal was good value, although probably a tad below expectations for Carolina as Stastny centered both the third and fourth line at different points during the season.

At the end of the season, the Hurricanes opted to let Stastny go and that’s where we find the 37-year-old today, unsigned and coming off a season in which he put up nine goals and 13 assists in 73 games while averaging a career-low 11:52 of ice-time per game.

Stastny has had a terrific career up to this point, but he is still chasing that elusive Stanley Cup. He seems to have a knack for leaving organizations just as they are on the cusp of winning Lord Stanley as evidenced by his former clubs Colorado, St. Louis, and Vegas all winning championships shortly after his departure.

Now, the Quebec City, Quebec native is in the twilight of his career and is likely looking to sign with a contender. He showed last year that he could be a solid contributor on the bottom two lines and probably has more to give. Teams aren’t going to be lining up like they once were for Stastny’s services, but with two months left until opening night, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic that he will find a landing spot before the first week in October.

Stats

2022-23: 73 GP, 9-13-22, +4 rating, 16 PIMS, 80 shots, 57.6% faceoffs, 60.9% CF, 11:52 ATOI
Career: 1145 GP, 293-529-822, +43 rating, 500 PIMS, 2326 shots, 54.2% faceoffs, 52.2% CF, 18:27 ATOI

Potential Suitors

It seems that teams are always looking for help at center, which makes Stastny’s status a bit surprising this late in the offseason. While he is hardly the only pivot that is unsigned, he is probably the best of the leftovers. For Stastny, if he does choose to continue his career, he will be looking for a situation where he is a good fit. He never quite found a groove in Carolina, and despite playing on an excellent team, he did seem frustrated at times. He also fell out of favor with the coaching staff for brief periods, evidenced by his benching when the team opted to use Derek Stepan in his spot.

Let’s start in the East. The Buffalo Sabres have several players that are over the age of 35 and while Stastny isn’t going to push the team into the next stratosphere, he could be a nice stopgap for the team as they wait for more of their young prospects to develop into everyday NHLers. The Sabres also need to navigate the injury to Jack Quinn, and while this version of Stastny is no replacement for the youngster, he could be a part of a solution until he returns. Stastny would add a lot of experience and leadership to the Sabres dressing room and could also provide the team with a center who can win most of the draws he takes and will generally help his team control the play when he is on the ice.

In the West, the Edmonton Oilers still need a solid fourth-line center. The club does currently have a few options that they can slot into the lineup in a pinch, but ideally, they would have a pivot that can bring similar skills to that of Stastny. The Oilers don’t need a player that will drive the offense, but they do need capable bottom six players who can play a responsible brand of hockey and dictate play when they are on the ice. Stastny fits the bill having won 57% of his faceoffs last season, and having terrific possession numbers as Carolina controlled the puck 60% of the time Stastny was on the ice. His offense dried up last season, but Edmonton doesn’t need an offensive juggernaut, they need smart bottom six players that can chip in on offense from time to time.

Projected Contract

Many of the remaining unrestricted free agents are likely going be forced to take contracts that are around the league minimum of $775K, however, I don’t believe that will be the fate for Stastny. As mentioned earlier, he waited until the end of August last year and still secured a seven-figure AAV on a one-year deal. This year is different for Stastny though as he is coming off his lowest offensive output in his 17-year career, so a contract approaching what he made last season might be off the table. I would venture a guess that Stastny will get a one-year deal in the range of $1MM to $1.25MM which could also include a small bonus. Several teams have utilized bonuses for players over 35 years of age signing one-year contracts and Stastny could be the next in line to receive it. Regardless of where he winds up, he will likely be able to give the team that acquires him good value on a short-term deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Edmonton Oilers Reach Deal With Ryan McLeod

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Ryan Rishaug of TSN is reporting that the Edmonton Oilers have reached an agreement with restricted free agent center Ryan McLeod. The Oilers and McLeod were set to go to arbitration on August 4th, but have now reached a settlement without the help of an arbitrator. Rishaug is reporting that the deal is a two-year contract worth $2.1MM per season.

Last night, it was reported that the Oilers and McLeod were close to a deal but some recent developments around the league had changed the calculus. It is not yet known what changed today, but the Oilers took care of a big piece of business as they look to sign their final restricted free agents to new deals for the 2023-24 season.

McLeod just finished his third season in the NHL and has established himself as a good depth center who can provide some offense and play up in the lineup if needed. McLeod just finished a year in which he produced 11 goals and 12 assists in 57 games and posted good analytics as well. McLeod will still be a restricted free agent when his contract expires in two seasons and will remain in the driver’s seat if he continues to improve from year to year.

With this deal in place, it gives both sides certainty and security. For the Oilers it allows them to have a better understanding of the cap space they have available while they negotiate with defenseman Evan Bouchard. For McLeod, he gets to cash in on his first contract in the seven figures and gets the added security of having next year’s money guaranteed.

Oilers Notes: McLeod, Centers, Bouchard

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Kurt Leavins of The Edmonton Journal writes that he has been hearing that the Edmonton Oilers and restricted free-agent center Ryan McLeod were closing in on a new contract, but that the goalposts might have moved. What exactly that means is unclear and Leavins doesn’t speculate in the article, however, according to Robert Tychkowski of the Edmonton Sun, the Oilers have been trying to sign McLeod to a contract with a cap hit of around $2MM and with the arbitration ruling for Philipp Kurashev, they might be looking at a higher number. Kurashev received $2.25MM in his arbitration ruling and given McLeod’s track record he has a good case for a number north of that.

Couple that piece of information with the news that Leavins believes that the Oilers could be looking to bring in some centers on PTOs before training camp and it is a development that isn’t overly encouraging for Oilers fans. However, it doesn’t change the fact that McLeod and the Oilers are set to go to arbitration on August 4th and there are no guarantees of a higher salary for McLeod. He will be pencilled into the lineup once that ruling comes down, meaning there isn’t a threat of him not being signed.

McLeod hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in his first three seasons in the league, but this past season was his best thus far as he posted 11 goals and 12 assists in 57 games while posting a Corsi For % of 53.8%, meaning that the Oilers were controlling the puck more than half the time McLeod was on the ice. The 23-year-old has improved in every season since he started in the NHL and could be just scratching the surface of what he can be.

In other Oilers notes:

  • As mentioned above Leavins believes the Oilers are looking at improving their center depth, and while bringing in centers on a PTO is an option, Leavins also thinks that Edmonton will look at a possible in-season trade as another solution. The Oilers won’t have a ton of cap space (if any) after they sign their remaining restricted free agents, which is likely why Leavins mentions Jake Evans of the Montreal Canadiens and Nic Dowd of the Washington Capitals as possible targets. Dowd has two years left on his current deal at $1.3MM while Evans also has two years remaining and is owed $1.7MM in each of the next two years.
  • Robert Tychkowski of the Edmonton Sun writes that he believes the Oilers have dodged a bullet and he doesn’t expect an offer sheet to come this late in the off-season for restricted free-agent defenseman Evan Bouchard. That’s good news for Oilers fans, but it also isn’t all that surprising given the rarity in which offer sheets are utilized. Leavins wrote today that he believes the Oilers and Bouchard are close to a deal but doesn’t give any details. Given the Oilers tight cap situation it does seem highly likely that they will sign a bridge deal with their budding defenseman which could open the door for him to sign a very lucrative extension soon should he continue to quarterback the league’s best power play. Bouchard had eight goals and 32 assists this past season in 82 games, but just 13 of his 40 regular season points came with the man advantage. In the playoffs, it was a different story as Bouchard had four goals and 11 assists on the power play in just 12 playoff games.

Free Agent Profile: Martin Jones

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Martin Jones career arc as a professional hockey player has been interesting to follow. He emerged in 2013-14 with the Los Angeles Kings as a solid backup to star goaltender Jonathan Quick going 16-11-2 over two seasons with a .923 save percentage and a 1.99 goals-against average. He was then traded to the Boston Bruins in June 2015 as part of a package for Milan Lucic before then being shipped back West to the San Jose Sharks for a first-round pick.

It was in San Jose in 2015-16 that Jones established himself as a bonafide starting goaltender and led the Sharks to within two wins of the Stanley Cup. Jones was terrific through his first three seasons in San Jose compiling a record of 102-68-16 while consistently posting a save percentage around .915. He was also a workhorse during his first four seasons dressing in over 60 games each year. In July 2017, San Jose felt so confident that Jones was their goalie of the future that they locked him up to a lucrative six-year deal worth a total of $34.5MM

But the Sharks’ confidence in the North Vancouver, British Columbia native quickly waned as Jones posted three consecutive years with a save percentage below .900. Realizing that his play was dropping off, the Sharks bought Jones out of the final three years of his contract in July 2021, a move that left them with a cap hit of almost $2MM annually until 2026-27. After Jones was unceremoniously bought out of his contract, he signed a one-year $2MM deal with the Philadelphia Flyers and posted numbers that mirrored his final three seasons in San Jose going 12-18-3 with a .900 save percentage and a 3.42 goals-against.

Last summer, after all the initial excitement of free agency had cleared, Jones signed a one-year contract with the Seattle Kraken in a move that was largely without any fanfare. The deal seemed like a good match as the Kraken viewed Jones as a good third option behind Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger, and Jones was looking for an opportunity to rebuild his stock in free agency.

It wasn’t long before Jones had de-throned Driedger as the Kraken’s backup to Grubauer and for stretches of the season Jones looked to be on the cusp of taking over the starter’s role. His win-loss record was terrific as Jones went 27-13-3 in 48 games, however, his save-percentage remained low at .886.  As the playoffs began, Jones lost the Kraken net and was an afterthought once Grubauer regained the starting role and took the team to their first-ever playoff victory over the Colorado Avalanche. If you look closer at the numbers though, you will see that Jones started the season on fire, with 10 of his first 15 starts coming in as quality starts. But as the season wore on, Jones faded and was possibly overworked into exhaustion, which might explain his drop-in play later in the year.

Now, at 33 years old Jones is at a bit of a crossroads in his career. He was once an above-average starter on the cusp of being elite, but he hasn’t been in that realm for several years. It’s possible he may still view himself as a starter or a solid backup, however, the numbers don’t lie and they show that at this point in his career Jones is a below-average option in net. Which might explain why he is still unsigned this deep into the offseason.

Stats

2022-23: 48 GP, 27-13-3, 2.99 GAA, .886 SV%, 3 SO
Career: 444 GP, 225-163-35, 2.71 GAA, .905 SV%, 28 SO

Potential Suitors

Over the last decade or so it seems more common that teams have relied on more than two goalies to get to the Stanley Cup. The Penguins did it in 2016 and probably wished they had three goaltenders in 2022 when they lost starter Tristan Jarry and backup Casey DeSmith to injury. The Vegas Golden Knights did it this year as well as they relied on Adin Hill to lead them to their first Stanley Cup after losing multiple goalies to injury throughout the year. That is the puzzling piece with Jones, he could be a terrific third option on a team that is desperate for goaltending depth, as proven by his presence in Seattle last season. One might wonder if Jones thought he could get more money early on and perhaps priced himself out of a deal in the early days of free agency. Alex Nedeljkovic took a one-year deal for $1.5MM in Pittsburgh to be their third-stringer and I’d be curious to see if Martin Jones had any similar offers in early July.

Whether or not Jones has had any offers is moot at this point, he remains unsigned and while a lot of teams like Pittsburgh addressed their goaltending depth, some teams could still use some help.

We’ll start in the West with the Vancouver Canucks. Jones is from North Vancouver, and when a player comes up for free agency there is always speculation about a return home. In the case of Jones to the Canucks, a return would make a lot of sense. The Canucks received a lot of very poor goaltending last season when starter Thatcher Demko went down to an injury. And while Spencer Martin tried valiantly to fill the void left by Demko, he just isn’t skilled enough to be relied upon as a regular NHL backup. However, the Canucks currently have Martin pencilled in to be the backup to Demko, and that probably isn’t going to be good enough for a team that aspires of making the playoffs once again. The Canucks have had a tumultuous couple of seasons, particularly last season, and could use some more stability in what is arguably the most important position.

Over in the East, a team that could use some depth in the crease is the New Jersey Devils. The Devils have been rumored to be interested in several goaltending options including John Gibson and Connor Hellebuyck, but both of those goaltenders would represent a huge commitment financially and would require a lot of trade assets. The Devils do need some type of improvement in the crease, be it from outside help or internal improvement. The Devils relied on the tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid last season, and while they were good enough to get the Devils to the second round of the playoffs, neither goalie has a history of playing at a high level in the NHL. Vanecek has been a league-average netminder for his three seasons in the NHL while Schmid was terrific in his first season in the league but played just 18 games. Jones would provide the Devils with a veteran presence that could push the Devils’ two young goalies for playing time while providing leadership, guidance and most importantly, depth. Jones isn’t going to turn into a Vezina candidate overnight, but he also won’t cost the Devils any assets and would come cheap.

Projected Contract

Like many of the remaining unrestricted free agents, Jones is likely going to take a significant pay cut for the upcoming season. Jones made $2MM with the Kraken last season and would be lucky to fetch a one-year deal for half of that at this point in the offseason. Whatever team signs Jones will likely see him as a depth option who can start for an extended period should one of their top goaltenders go down to an injury. While there is value in that, the flat cap world has left many of the players like Jones scratching and clawing to stay in the league. Career tweener goaltenders such as Louie Domingue have managed to find guaranteed salaries at league minimum in recent years and one would have to think that Jones will end up with a similar fate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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