Assessing Potential Under-The-Radar Trade Candidates
After two major trades last week involving players like Quinn Hughes, Marco Rossi, Tristan Jarry, and Stuart Skinner, the trade bait boards in the media have removed several names from the potential trade list. There are still many clear candidates available for trade, including Ryan O’Reilly, Rasmus Andersson, Alex Tuch, and Yegor Chinakhov. However, beyond that initial group of obvious options, there are less obvious, under-the-radar players who might come into play as the next few months unfold.
We start with a couple of Jets players who are near the bottom of the NHL standings and have been a colossal disappointment this season. Much of their struggles are due to three-time Vezina Trophy winner (and last season’s Hart Trophy winner) Connor Hellebuyck missing three weeks after an arthroscopic knee procedure on Nov. 21.
If this slow start persists, the Jets have two veterans, Gustav Nyquist and Jonathan Toews, who could be trade targets if Winnipeg decides to punt on this season. With just six assists in 24 games, Nyquist hasn’t been a fit in Winnipeg. The 36-year-old is on a one-year deal worth $3.25MM that he signed on July 1 and is only two years removed from posting 75 points in 81 games with the Predators.
Should Winnipeg make Nyquist available, he will attract significant interest due to his veteran experience and passing skills. Make no mistake, Nyquist is somewhat one-dimensional at this stage in his career, but he can also contribute on the penalty kill and occasionally score. Last year at the trade deadline, Nashville traded Nyquist to the Wild for a second-round pick; however, his performance this season (and last year) makes that return unlikely. Nyquist doesn’t have trade protection on his current deal.
Initially, Toews’ story was an incredible demonstration of perseverance and grit in getting back to the NHL. The Jets took a chance on Toews, hoping he could regain his spot as an NHL center in their top six, or at least their top nine. That hasn’t happened so far, as Toews has struggled to keep up with today’s NHL pace, which is understandable given his health issues and the time he was away from the game.
Winnipeg misjudged how effective Toews would be, and they are now paying the price in the standings because of a significant gap in their forward group. That said, they are still in the playoff hunt, and with an intense stretch of play, they could contend again. However, if they stumble, they might consider moving Toews if he’s willing to waive his no-move clause. Since he returned home to play for the Jets, it’s unlikely they will trade him or that he will accept a deal, but if Winnipeg’s struggles persist, it could become a real possibility.
Toews has been moved to the fourth line (along with Nyquist) and has scored just three goals and six assists in 33 games this season with a -13 rating while averaging 15:33 of ice time per game. Those stats mark the worst production of Toews’ career. He’s appeared slow this year, and Winnipeg seems like a team playing in slow motion when he is on the ice. It raises the question of whether they can continue to include him in the lineup.
The Jets signed Toews to make a substantial impact in the playoffs, but if the playoffs look unlikely, it makes sense to see if they can find him a team that will qualify and receive a small return. That is, if he wishes to play elsewhere.
Sticking with the Western Conference, the Blues have also disappointed this season, after pushing the Jets to the very limit in last year’s playoffs. St. Louis is a team caught between being a playoff contender and an up-and-coming squad, and it’s fair to wonder how many veterans they might move this season. Much has been said about Jordan Kyrou, Jordan Binnington, and Brayden Schenn, all of whom are on many trade candidate lists, but one name that isn’t talked about often is forward Mathieu Joseph.
Joseph is a Stanley Cup champion who could be a reliable addition to a contending team looking to strengthen its depth. The 28-year-old has a good shot, can kill penalties, and plays with a lot of speed. He is carrying a $2.95MM cap hit in the final year of a four-year deal and won’t cost a fortune for any team aiming to improve their lineup. Joseph would also bring a bit of physicality to the bottom of a forward group, making him a strong candidate for a trade.
Switching over to the Eastern Conference, a name that emerges as a somewhat under-the-radar trade candidate is defenseman Ryan Shea. The Penguins signed Shea to a one-year NHL contract in the summer of 2023 that included a $775K guarantee, despite him having never played an NHL game up to that point.
Shea had spent three seasons in the Stars’ minor league system after captaining Northeastern University in the NCAA. The 28-year-old is once again heading for free agency next summer and was earlier projected by AFP Analytics to receive a one-year deal worth just over $1MM.
However, his performance this season (two goals and 11 assists in 33 games) has raised his value, and he could be eyeing a multi-year contract considering his age and recent form. The Penguins have over $54MM in cap space for next season (as per PuckPedia) and could easily re-sign him, but it remains uncertain whether he fits into their long-term plans given their projected window of contention. If they see him as part of their top-six forward group, he will sign and stay; if not, he should be an available trade asset before the deadline due to his $900K cap hit.
Lastly, we have Teddy Blueger of the Canucks. Blueger has played just two games this season due to a lower-body injury, but is expected to return after Christmas, making him a likely trade candidate given his upcoming free agency next summer.
Blueger is a dependable pro and a consistent presence; he is a fourth-line center, no more, no less. The 31-year-old is in the final season of a two-year deal paying him $1.8MM and is likely to get a raise if he can return to the lineup and perform at his best. Blueger has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, peaking at 28 points in a season, a number he has reached multiple times.
Blueger isn’t overly big or fast, but he is an excellent forechecker and has some offensive skills beyond goal scoring, which he isn’t particularly good at. He is a smart player both offensively and defensively, especially on the penalty kill, where he has been excellent historically.
All these factors make Blueger a prime candidate to be moved before the deadline, given his timeline and the Canucks’ plans. Vancouver is about as unpredictable as any team can be right now, but Blueger has a Stanley Cup on his resume and will be sought after by playoff-bound teams, which Vancouver is not.
Is There Any Hope For The Sabres?
The Sabres have reached a point where they could be considered contenders alongside the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns of the NFL, and the NBA’s Charlotte Hornets for the title of the saddest team in sports. Few NHL teams have caused more misery for their fans, as the Sabres once again find themselves at the bottom of the standings. It’s safe to say new general manager Jarmo Kekäläinen is walking into one of the most unenviable situations in hockey.
Buffalo has been trying to turn the corner on a rebuild that feels like it’s been ongoing forever, but it’s actually been two separate rebuilds. The team showed promise a few years ago, narrowly missing the playoffs in what has become an annual tradition—no postseason hockey in Buffalo. The last time the Sabres made the playoffs, TikTok didn’t exist, and the NHL salary cap was $59.4MM. But it’s not just the lack of playoff appearances that is heartbreaking for Sabres fans; it’s the endless cycle of futility and star players either forcing their way out or choosing to leave at their first opportunity.
It wasn’t always like this; in fact, the Sabres were a genuine threat to win the Stanley Cup after the NHL lockout in 2005. Led by Daniel Brière and Chris Drury, both of whom became NHL general managers, the Sabres were a formidable force in the Eastern Conference and captured the President’s Trophy in 2007. They eventually lost to the Senators in five games in the Eastern Conference Final. That loss effectively marked the beginning of these years of futility in Buffalo.
The summer of 2007 saw Drury sign with the Rangers as a free agent, and Brière joined the Flyers. Neither player reached the same level of success they had in Buffalo, but without those two, the Sabres have never been the same.
Many people cite the summer of 2007 as the point when everything went wrong for Buffalo, while others point to the Pegula family taking control of the team in February 2011. The losses have accumulated over the past decade and more, and not just those on the ice. Most folks probably forget, but the 2007 Sabres were a buzzsaw—a team with top-end scorers and scoring depth for miles behind Drury, Briere, and Thomas Vanek; not to mention solid defense and Miller in the net. There was a lot of hype around the team, and the energy swept the city as the Sabres went on a deep run that ultimately ended in heartbreak.
All of that has led us to today’s version of the Sabres, who have been seen as a laughingstock in the NHL for the past 13 long seasons. From poor hires to bad drafts, to regrettable signings, and lopsided trades. Combine this with the complete mishandling of a star player’s injury in Jack Eichel, and Sabres fans have endured it all, with no signs of relief in sight.
Even this year, the Sabres are tied for last in the Eastern Conference. All of this makes you wonder how long Buffalo’s current stars will want to stay and endure tough times.
Owen Power, Tage Thompson, and Rasmus Dahlin are all committed long-term to the Sabres, but Eichel was too, and we know how that turned out—with him winning a Stanley Cup with the Golden Knights. Eichel wasn’t the only young Sabres player to effectively push his way out of Buffalo.
Ryan O’Reilly didn’t force his departure, but he was traded to St. Louis in 2018, where he went on to win the Stanley Cup in 2019. Sam Reinhart wouldn’t commit to Buffalo in 2021 and was traded to the Florida Panthers, where he has won two Stanley Cups and become one of the best two-way centers in the NHL.
Just this past summer, forward JJ Peterka also wouldn’t commit long-term to the Sabres and was traded to Utah. Whether or not he wins a Cup remains to be seen, but it’s definitely a painful pattern in Buffalo.
The Reinhart situation is especially rough because the former second-overall pick wanted to stay long-term in Buffalo after his entry-level deal expired. However, it was the Sabres who chose shorter-term contracts of two and one year, and then faced a terrible 2020-21 season, after which Reinhart was the one unwilling to play through a rebuild.
It’s hard to say for sure if the Sabres are the saddest team in sports, but they’re giving the Jets, Browns, and Hornets a run for their money. Poor drafting and development, wasted money on overpaid free agents (Ville Leino), endless rebuilds, a lack of meaningful hockey, and constant management and coaching changes have created an environment of ongoing disappointment.
Is there any flicker of hope? Possibly. The Sabres have some young, talented players in Thompson, Power, and Dahlin. But they’ve been here too many times before, and Sabres fans are aware of this, yet credit to them—they keep showing up at the rink despite the increasingly bleak environment around the team. Will their core stay together? Will the team build out the depth? Or will Buffalo continue its streak of irrelevance?
These Pending UFAs Have Increased Their Stock
The 2026 UFA class had been highly anticipated for quite some time free agency even opened this year. That excitement only grew through July and August as many potential UFAs didn’t sign extensions with their current clubs. However, that feeling was quickly dampened in the fall as players like Kirill Kaprizov, Connor McDavid, and Jack Eichel began signing new contracts, taking the energy out of the 2026 free-agent frenzy. While many stars have signed new deals, a noticeable group of talented players is still set to hit the open market on July 1, 2026, with some having significantly boosted their stock after a strong start to the season.
Jack Roslovic has encountered two difficult situations in the UFA market, with the first ending in him signing a one-year, $2.8MM deal with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2024. His second attempt this past summer saw him join the Oilers for one year at $1.5MM. This year’s outcome was quite unexpected, given that Roslovic played well last season with 22 goals for Carolina, yet a multi-year deal that suited him never materialized. Roslovic was not alone this summer; defenseman Matt Grzelcyk also couldn’t secure a multi-year contract that met his expectations, despite having a career-best season last year in Pittsburgh.
This summer, however, Roslovic seems to be positioning himself for a multi-year deal that has eluded him. Injuries could affect his market value, but through 23 games in Edmonton this season, the 28-year-old has scored 10 goals and added eight assists. He’s also averaging over three more minutes of ice time per game compared to his career average. These impressive stats could spark a bidding war for his services if he stays healthy and maintains his current level of performance for the remainder of the season.
Nick Schmaltz is another forward whose performance this season has increased his value. The 29-year-old has 30 points (12 goals and 18 assists) in 34 games, and he will likely exceed his current $5.85MM cap hit when he signs his next contract next summer. Schmaltz’s impending free agency puts the Utah Mammoth in a tough spot, as Schmaltz has recorded back-to-back 60+ point seasons and is on track to do so again, which could raise his next cap hit to around $9MM annually.
The Mammoth might not want to commit to that kind of deal for Schmaltz, which means they will either trade him before the trade deadline or let him walk for nothing at the end of the year. Utah reportedly held trade talks for Schmaltz last summer, and it doesn’t seem likely that a deal will be finalized soon, meaning Schmaltz might enter the open market at the best possible time.
Another forward whose future remains uncertain is Alex Tuch of the Buffalo Sabres. Tuch has scored 11 goals and 17 assists in 31 games and initiated contract talks at the beginning of the season, which puts the Sabres in a difficult position. The Sabres find themselves in a familiar spot at the bottom of the standings, and while Tuch has done his part, the team appears to be heading nowhere. If Tuch continues at his current pace, his value will only increase, which might be what the Sabres want if they plan to trade the Syracuse, New York native.
Two veterans nearing the end of their careers are Evgeni Malkin of the Pittsburgh Penguins and Artemi Panarin of the New York Rangers. Both entered this season with significant questions about their futures, and so far they’ve performed well, raising even more questions about what lies ahead for them.
Evgeni Malkin seems to have no interest in playing anywhere in the NHL other than Pittsburgh. This could lead to some interesting contract negotiations after the season if he maintains his current level of play. Malkin is in the final season of a four-year, $24.4MM contract he signed in the summer of 2022. Many believed last summer that the 2025-26 season could be Malkin’s last in the NHL and possibly his final season as a player at all. However, with the 39-year-old experiencing a significant resurgence this season with eight goals and 21 assists in 26 games, there’s a chance he continues playing, especially if Pittsburgh remains competitive and has a role for him moving forward. Nobody could have predicted that the Penguins would start the season as they have. With more young players emerging and an incredible amount of cap space next summer, the short-term future for Pittsburgh actually looks quite promising. It seemed unlikely that Malkin would receive a contract offer from Pittsburgh next summer, but now it seems like a real possibility he returns, assuming he can maintain his current work rate.
For Panarin, it’s not so much his play this season that has raised his profile, but rather the better options being taken off the table next summer. With many of the top pending UFAs now tied up in extensions, Panarin has risen on the list as one of the best offensive options available. The 34-year-old, for his part, remains a point-per-game player with 11 goals and 22 assists in 33 games, which should attract a healthy market despite his age by NHL standards. AFP Analytics is projecting a four-year, $41MM deal for Panarin, which, considering market conditions and his performance, looks pretty feasible.
On defense, arguably the top available player is Rasmus Andersson of the Calgary Flames. Andersson had a tough year last season but has bounced back in 2025-26, which should give him a strong market if and when he hits free agency. The Flames have started poorly this year, opening up the possibility that Andersson becomes a key trade piece before the NHL Trade Deadline, giving him a chance to play meaningful hockey in the spring if he joins a contender. The 29-year-old has been used in more defensive roles this season but has still managed 22 points in 33 games, after recording just 31 points in 81 games last season. If Andersson maintains this offensive level, his cap hit could rise closer to $9MM a season on his next contract, likely the last major deal of his career. Some teams might hesitate because of his less successful past seasons, but for now, Andersson is hitting his stride at just the right moment.
A couple of honorable mentions to round things out include forwards Victor Olofsson, Jaden Schwartz, and Kiefer Sherwood. Olofsson signed his second straight one-year “prove it” contract this summer, signing with the Colorado Avalanche for a $1.575MM AAV. Since then, Olofsson has been a steady performer for the Avalanche, recording seven goals and 12 assists in 32 games. AFP Analytics projects a three-year deal at $3.41MM per year, which would be a nice bump for the 30-year-old.
A year ago, Schwartz looked like a player who would need to accept a significant pay cut when his current contract ends. The 33-year-old is currently earning a $5.5MM AAV in the final year of a five-year deal. After scoring 49 points last season, Schwartz is on pace for a 65-point season this year, which would be a career best. Considering that level of production, AFP is predicting a two-year deal worth just under $10.8MM, which would be a slight decrease from his next contract but not the huge drop expected a year ago.
Sherwood has become a bit of a goal scorer since joining the Vancouver Canucks in the summer of 2024 as a free agent. He is on track to surpass 20 goals for the first time in his NHL career (after posting 19 a year ago), and the timing could not be better since he is expected to hit the open market next summer. His lack of long-term NHL experience may somewhat limit Sherwood’s market value, as he was a late bloomer, becoming a full-time NHLer at the age of 28. He has just one season with more than thirty points (last year), but if he can do that again, he should still attract a team willing to offer a multi-year deal at an AAV that might surprise some people.
These Summer Signings Already Look Like Trouble
NHL free agency often results in some big misses, and this past summer was no exception. Even though we’re only two months into the regular season, it’s already clear that some of the contracts teams signed could turn out to be disasters, and for some, it was obvious from the start. Let’s take an early look at a few contracts that might not age well.
When Cody Ceci signed his four-year, $18MM contract on July 1, there was real sticker shock across the league. It was a significant overpay, destined to be a poor contract from day one.
Now, after 29 games, Ceci has one goal and five assists, averaging 17:39 of ice time per game while playing a third-pairing role at even strength. Ceci ranks 516th out of 554 players in the NHL in on-ice goal share for those who’ve played over 200 minutes at 5-on-5 at 34.5%.
The tricky part for Kings fans is that this was quite predictable from the moment the contract was signed, but there was a silver lining in the potential for Ceci to provide some physicality on the back end. However, that hasn’t been the case this year, as Ceci has managed just 15 hits in 29 games.
Ceci will turn 32 later this month, and there’s no upside to his game at this stage. With three years remaining on the deal after this season, the contract might even become a buyout candidate before it expires.
Trent Frederic signed one of the more surprising deals this past summer, agreeing to an eight-year extension worth $3.85MM per season after the Oilers picked him up from the Bruins at last year’s trade deadline. While the AAV is a bit high for what he offers, the length of the deal is also extraordinary.
Two months into the contract, it looks like a miss. Frederic has only two goals in 28 games this season and has been a burden to everyone he plays with.
The 27-year-old was never expected to live up to his contract fully, but in previous seasons, he showed some goal-scoring ability and contributed other intangible qualities. While he’s still tallying 68 hits this year, he’s doing so with virtually no other positive impact, making it hard to believe that he once produced 40 points in a season.
In 51 games as a member of the Oilers (29 regular-season games and 22 playoff games), Frederic has scored three goals and three assists. This, of course, dates back to last season, but it’s hard to understand that the Oilers saw what they saw at the end of last season and decided to sign him up for another eight years.
In fairness to the Oilers, Frederic was dealing with a high ankle sprain last season, which is notoriously tricky to play through and can have effects lasting a year – a silver lining if you’re Edmonton. Maybe Frederic is still battling a nagging injury and isn’t able to play as well as he did in some of his earlier seasons in Boston. Time will tell, but for the Oilers and their fans, Frederic’s recent play is concerning.
Next, there’s goaltender Ville Husso of the Ducks – or more often, their AHL affiliate in San Diego. Anaheim general manager Pat Verbeek decided to keep Husso around last summer with a two-year, $4.4MM contract extension.
The deal didn’t make much sense at the time, as the Ducks already had Lukáš Dostál in the fold, and they signed Husso the day after trading John Gibson to the Red Wings for a package including Petr Mrázek. Some thought Husso might be the backup, and that Mrazek could be moved, but so far, he remains, and Husso has had limited NHL action.
Mrázek effectively moved into the backup spot ahead of Husso, which somewhat undermines the reason for re-signing the 30-year-old. Husso is a well-paid third-string goaltender for the Ducks, and there’s a reasonable case that he’s an average third-stringer at best.
In six NHL games this season, Husso has a 4-2-0 record with a 2.82 GAA and a .875 SV%. His numbers are noticeably better in the AHL with a 6-4-3 record, a 2.49 GAA, and a .908 SV%. However, he’s earning $2.2MM this season, a higher AAV than high-end veteran No. 2 options like Jake Allen, Jonathan Quick, and Scott Wedgewood.
Husso’s deal came shortly after a solid four-game audition in Anaheim at the end of last season, and it’s hard to imagine Verbeek was envisioning Husso as a tweener. The deal was likely made to provide Anaheim with a backup so they could trade Mrázek, but unfortunately, they couldn’t move him. Even if that was the case, Husso’s deal was a stretch, and while it isn’t overly restrictive to the salary cap, it’s a bad contract to hand out.
A couple of other deals that might not work out well are the Ryan Lindgren contract with the Kraken and Brian Dumoulin’s agreement with the Kings. Lindgren signed for four years and $18MM in the summer and has contributed nothing offensively (three assists in 25 games) for the Kraken and hasn’t been physical at all, with just 14 hits.
Lindgren was a massive drain on whoever he played with last season, giving Rangers defenseman Adam Fox all kinds of problems. However, it wasn’t that long ago that Lindgren was a top-pairing defenseman in New York, and if he ever got back to that level, he would be worth the money. But his play has been this way for over a year now, and it might just be the player he is now.
The Dumoulin deal in Los Angeles, like the Ceci one, was a head-scratcher. There was a time when Dumoulin was a legitimate top-pairing defenseman who had a great first pass, excellent gap control, and elite defensive awareness.
However, his body has slowed over time, and that terrific skating has become a liability, preventing him from getting space for his good breakout passes or closing gaps. Dumoulin has been fine this season for the Kings, but the deal has another two and a half years remaining and is unlikely to age well.
Erik Karlsson Is Playing His Best Hockey In Years
When the Penguins acquired defenseman Erik Karlsson from the Sharks in August 2023, they envisioned him giving their big three (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang) one last push for a playoff run. Two and a third years into the experiment, the results haven’t been promising, as Pittsburgh missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons and has entered into a rebuild — or at least, that’s what they believed.
However, Karlsson and the big three have the Penguins in contention for a playoff spot some 26 games into the season, in a year when they expected to be one of the worst teams in the league. Karlsson is nowhere near the offensive producer he was during the 2022-23 season when he won the Norris Trophy and registered 101 points, but he has been in good form this year and has provided Pittsburgh with more of a two-way presence on their back end.
When Pittsburgh started the season, the left side of their defense looked like a black hole because they had very little depth at that position, and it was expected to be the team’s Achilles’ heel. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, recent signee free agent Parker Wotherspoon stepped up and claimed one of the spots in the top six.
Not long after, Wotherspoon was paired with Karlsson, and together they have become Pittsburgh’s top defensive pairing. There were no expectations for Karlsson or Wotherspoon this season. Still, under the guidance of first-year head coach Dan Muse, Karlsson appears to be a completely different player, and Wotherspoon has become a meaningful NHL defenseman for the first time in his short professional career.
Using the eye test, Karlsson looks like a different player compared to the past two seasons. He is playing a more focused defensive game and has shown more defensive awareness than he has in a long time. His skating in the defensive zone has been effective in recovering to get back into position, closing gaps, and, along with his instincts, breaking up plays.
On the offensive side, Karlsson remains a fantastic playmaker, still demonstrating the elite vision that has helped him win three Norris Trophies. Even if his goal-scoring isn’t what it once was, he is still an elite offensive player who could be ready to break out.
Even if his offensive stats hover around 55 to 60 points, which is about where they are this season (one goal and 17 assists in 26 games), Karlsson’s play away from the puck makes his lower offensive totals easier to accept. In fact, Karlsson and Wotherspoon have not only formed a solid defensive pairing, but they have also been highly effective at killing penalties and are Pittsburgh’s most-used defensive duo when shorthanded. Their even-strength play has been strong as well, with Karlsson and Wotherspoon limiting high-danger scoring chances, demonstrating a defensive awareness rarely seen in Karlsson’s game.
Karlsson appears more comfortable on the ice, playing loose and fast, a stark contrast to the last few years, when the 35-year-old seemed as though Father Time had caught up with him. A perfect example is this past Monday in a game against the Flyers.
With the game tied 1-1, Karlsson collects the puck, bursts out from behind his own net, skates straight to the middle of the ice in the offensive zone and drives right at the two Flyers defenders. He then cuts to the right and makes a tape-to-tape cross-ice pass to Bryan Rust, who spots the trailer (Crosby) for a one-timer that ends up in the back of Philadelphia’s net. It’s a goal that Karlsson didn’t start a year or two ago, and it highlights the change in his work rate.
It also makes one wonder where Karlsson and the Penguins will finish this season. It might even be better if not for a significant injury bug that swept through the room at the start of November, bringing down Noel Acciari, Rickard Rakell, and Justin Brazeau, among others. The injuries effectively removed one forward from each line and put the Penguins in a position where their depth was tested in November, and quite frankly, they don’t have much depth.
You could argue that Karlsson has been lucky, and that some of his mistakes are being offset by Wotherspoon’s consistent performance and the efforts of his goalies. This idea is valid, as Karlsson and Wotherspoon have been on the ice together for 14 goals for and 10 goals against (a 58.3% goals share) while their expected goals share is just 47.3%, with projections of 15.1 goals scored and 16.8 goals conceded (all numbers via MoneyPuck). These data points do tell a story, and there might be some truth to Karlsson being fortunate, but they don’t reflect Karlsson’s own defensive contributions, which have been excellent this year compared to previous seasons.
Speaking of the Penguins’ goaltending, there is a case to be made that many of the Penguins’ shortcomings as a team have been masked by the exceptional goaltending they’ve received so far. Tristan Jarry has been excellent to start the year, with a goals saved above expected of 8.2, and Arturs Silovs has also been good with a 2.5 goals saved above expected (all numbers courtesy of MoneyPuck). That kind of goaltending can’t be expected to continue for the rest of the year, especially in Jarry’s case, who has a history of struggling in the second half of the season. But, for now, it’s a significant reason that Pittsburgh is in contention for the postseason, along with the play of Karlsson and other veterans.
A consistent feature of Pittsburgh this year has been its veteran stars, including Karlsson. He’s remained a dependable presence for the team and could step up further as the season approaches the Olympics. Karlsson is clearly driven by something, and the Olympics are as good an assumption as any.
There is also the possibility that Karlsson understands the situation he’s in. Karlsson was expected to be traded in the summer, but that never happened, which means he might be stuck in Pittsburgh until next year or until his contract expires at the end of the 2027 season. The Penguins will likely make moves next summer to speed up their rebuild—Josh Yohe of The Athletic has repeatedly expressed this belief. Looking at the mix of young prospects and veterans still playing at a high level, it all makes sense. Pittsburgh isn’t a Stanley Cup contender right now and probably won’t be for a few more years. However, with the 2025 draft selections that they made and a potential superstar goalie in Sergey Murashov, that timeline could shift very soon.
If Karlsson stays with the team next season, it could be his best opportunity to chase a Stanley Cup. Even if he doesn’t, there will be motivation to extend his career beyond the 2026-27 season, and factors like money and his choice of destination will also serve as strong motivators.
Photo by Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Which NHLer Is Most Likely To Seek A Contract Termination?
The NHL has recently experienced an unusual trend: an increase in players choosing to forgo guaranteed contracts that still owe them millions to find a playing situation that better suits them. This process involves the player clearing standard waivers with the team anticipating they’ll refuse to report to their AHL affiliate, creating a breach of contract that allows the team to place the player on unconditional waivers, before ultimately finalizing the contract termination.
Last year, Brandon Saad did this by walking away from the remaining year and a half of his deal and over $3MM in salary. This summer, forward Conor Sheary followed suit, foregoing the final year of his contract and saving the Lightning $1.5MM. Just a few weeks ago, Maple Leafs forward David Kämpf also stepped back, forfeiting over $2MM in salary. More recently, Alexandre Texier left the Blues and signed with the Canadiens for roughly half his previous salary. In effect, all these players essentially halved their earnings to find situations better suited to them, raising the question: who might be the next player to break their current contract?
Dozens, if not hundreds, of players under NHL contracts could be described as unhappy with their playing time. However, most, if not all, would be satisfied with the current NHL paychecks they receive. Players such as Ryan Graves, Tristan Jarry, and Ville Husso will not be included for purposes of this article. While they are veterans who have earned good money in their NHL careers, they are still early in their lucrative new deals, and they have spent time in the AHL over the last calendar year. This piece will focus on players in a unique position regarding their contracts who might be willing to walk away from guaranteed money if they can’t be moved via trade or waivers.
Penguins forward Philip Tomasino is the top name on the list and has already been made available to every NHL team this month after he was placed on waivers by the Penguins and eventually assigned to the minors after passing through. Signed to a one-year, $1.75MM deal last offseason, many fans were surprised when the Penguins non-tendered him in the summer, only to re-sign him to that one-year pact.
The move kept his salary lower, but Tomasino has still failed to provide any value to Pittsburgh this season, with just one assist in nine NHL games. Tomasino also started slowly last year with Nashville, posting a single assist in his first 11 games before a midseason trade to Pittsburgh sparked a turnaround. Hence, a comeback isn’t out of the question.
Clearly, passing on waivers showed a complete lack of interest in Tomasino at his current price, but at league minimum, teams might be more willing to take a shot. However, the chances of that happening seem low, as the Penguins likely aren’t keen to use up a salary retention slot on him, and Tomasino likely doesn’t want to leave the highest salary he’s earned in his NHL career. There’s always a possibility that the Mississauga, Ontario native stays in the AHL for the rest of the season, but given his six points in three AHL games, he might find a way to work his way back to the NHL, just like teammates Graves and Jarry did over the past year.
Next up is a player who is nearly 10 years older than Tomasino: defenseman Erik Gustafsson of the Red Wings. Like Tomasino, Gustafsson is in the final year of his contract and trying to maintain his NHL career, but that is where many similarities end. Gustafsson is a ten-year NHL veteran nearing the end of his playing career, whereas Tomasino is just beginning his.
Not so long ago, Gustafsson was regarded as a capable third-pairing defenseman. Many praised the Red Wings for signing him to a two-year, $4MM contract in July 2024. That deal proved to be ill-fated. Gustafsson’s play declined last season, especially on the offensive side. His puck handling was sloppy, and he wasn’t the same contributor as in previous years.
This poor performance led to a demotion this season, with the 33-year-old playing most of his games in the AHL with the Grand Rapids Griffins. Credit to Gustafsson for stepping up and performing well in the AHL, but it does raise questions about whether he will finish the year in Detroit. The Wings might consider trading him or putting him on waivers (again), but given his recent play and salary, that seems unlikely.
Another factor in Gustafsson’s situation is the fact that he’s made $2MM or more in just three NHL seasons. One of these was the shortened 2020-21 season, which had a 56-game schedule, meaning Gustafsson’s $3MM AAV effectively amounted to a $2MM salary that year. This income would have been subject to deferrals, escrow, agent fees, and taxes, so Gustafsson actually received less than half of it. Aside from that, Gustafsson is nearing the end of his career and has earned somewhere in the range of $10MM-$12MM (gross income), so he probably isn’t willing to walk away from $1.5MM without at least the promise of another contract elsewhere.
Another Detroit defenseman who might seem like a contender is Justin Holl, who is also 33 years old and in the final year of his contract. Holl signed a three-year, $10.4MM deal with the Red Wings in July 2023, but that contract has proven to be poor value for Detroit. Like Gustafsson, Holl was a turnover machine last season and has ended up in the AHL this year. The signing never made much sense from the start, as Holl has always been a fairly average defenseman, and not the type you rush to overpay on July 1, which is precisely what Detroit did.
Holl is probably still an NHL defenseman and could likely find a role if he didn’t have a $3.4MM price tag attached. However, to move him, Detroit would probably need to include an asset and retain salary. Since he’s a pending UFA, they won’t go through the trouble. Considering he has earned over $15MM in his career, you would think Holl might be inclined to leave his contract early if given the chance. Still, it seems unlikely because this is probably his last big NHL payday, and he can wait until summer to sign a two-way deal for league minimum.
Another player to consider is Oilers winger Max Jones. Jones was acquired last season from the Bruins and played 19 games down the stretch, but didn’t contribute much with just a goal and an assist. Jones can skate and hit; beyond that, his abilities are pretty limited. He is in the second year of a two-year, $2MM deal, and since he’s earning one-way money, it’s unlikely he would walk away from it to pursue another job. Jones has spent the entire season in the AHL after passing through waivers in October, and he’s probably best served to ride out his current contract and hope for a promotion to the NHL. The 27-year-old is lucky to have time on his side and can look for a two-way contract in the off-season, but if he chooses to opt out, he’ll likely find a two-way league minimum deal that puts him in the same position he’s in now, just wearing a different jersey.
Other players who might consider terminating their contracts soon include Jets forward Tanner Pearson. Pearson has been receiving fourth-line minutes in Winnipeg and has faced challenging assignments in that role. He’s got just three goals and an assist in 23 games this season. However, with a $1MM salary, he might choose to stay the course and play the hand he’s been dealt. It’s unlikely that Pearson would find a team willing to give him a top-nine role at this stage of his career, so he’s probably best advised to stay in Winnipeg under contract.
Another possibility could be Oilers goaltender Connor Ingram, but his play in the AHL this season has been atrocious, with a 3-3-2 record and a .873 SV%. Ingram is making $1.95MM in the final year of his deal and is probably best served continuing to cash his cheques and trying to improve his game to get back to the NHL. Ingram is also in a position with the Oilers where it might be his best route back to an NHL lineup, given the issues Edmonton’s goaltending has faced this year.
A few final names of players who could be contenders to terminate their current contracts mutually include defensemen Daniil Miromanov of the Flames and Kyle Burroughs of the Kings, as well as forward Carl Grundström of the Flyers. These three players are in the final years of their deals, earning over $1MM this season, and are currently playing in the AHL.
Connor McDavid Should Have Explored Free Agency
Oilers superstar Connor McDavid struggled to find the words to describe the team’s 8-3 loss to the Dallas Stars on Tuesday night. The decision dropped the Oilers’ record to 10-10-5 for the season, and McDavid looked defeated during his post-game interview.
The team is grappling with the same issues that have plagued them since McDavid joined the NHL in the fall of 2015. Edmonton’s secondary offensive support for McDavid and Leon Draisaitl is minimal, and their goaltending remains a significant concern. Considering the Oilers have faced these problems for so long, it makes one wonder why a generational talent like McDavid chose to sign on for two more years of this, especially given the bargain he struck when he signed for just $12.5MM a season.
McDavid’s choice to sign with Edmonton before even considering free agency might become one of the biggest “what-ifs” in NHL history. However, McDavid opted for stability in a familiar market, with a team that has been competitive for most of his NHL career.
Ultimately, McDavid decided to stay loyal to the Oilers, but the two-year term seemed like a warning shot to Edmonton. So far, that warning appears to have fallen on deaf ears. The timing of McDavid’s extension was quite unusual. The superstar had a clear route to unrestricted free agency, which could have been one of the most incredible stories in NHL history if it had come to pass.
McDavid had the chance to be the highest-profile player in NHL history to reach free agency since Wayne Gretzky in 1996. He held leverage against the Oilers and could have waited out the season, sparking a bidding war for his services. This would have boosted his star power and changed what a superstar’s career could look like. Instead, McDavid chose familiarity, even though the timing of his decision wasn’t convenient.
McDavid’s signing has delayed his free agency by 24 months, and some people dismiss this decision by arguing that McDavid will still get paid and reach free agency after the salary cap has significantly increased. While both points have some truth, the counterargument is compelling. Instead of becoming a free agent at 29, McDavid will do so at 31. It might seem minor, but many NHLers see their skills decline after 30.
Another factor is that when McDavid finally signs, the new CBA rules on contract length will apply, meaning the maximum deal with his current team will be seven years, and he’ll only be able to land six years on the open market. Although this one-year reduction isn’t a significant issue, it will likely cause McDavid to leave money on the table on his next deal.
In terms of missed opportunities, McDavid would have been the first generational player in NHL free agency to test the market in the prime of his career. While it would have made great theater for the NHL, it would also have been an opportunity for McDavid to shift the league’s balance of power toward whichever team he joined, while helping reset the salary structure for superstar NHLers. McDavid is clearly not a $12.5MM player, but like many top NHLers before him, he took a ‘hometown discount’ to stay with his current team.
For some NHLers, taking that discount has worked out well (Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, Nathan MacKinnon). Far more often, the savings from a reduced salary cap are wasted. Even Crosby, who traded tens of millions of dollars to play on consistently competitive teams, saw many of those seasons marred by costly mistakes on depth players with inflated cap hits (Jack Johnson, Erik Gudbranson, Nick Bjugstad). Crosby essentially subsidized poor roster decisions with his lower cap hits, and would no doubt do so again, given the Stanley Cup championships Pittsburgh has won during his career.
McDavid’s decision to re-sign essentially upholds the NHL’s long-standing tradition of superstars taking less money to stay with their team, and no doubt he did so while feeling loyalty to the Oilers fans who have endured the same heartbreaks he has. The reality is, McDavid has gone through a decade without winning the Cup, despite multiple front-office makeovers, coaching changes, cap mismanagement, and an inability to surround him with real depth. And while the depth has improved over the last few years, the “we’re almost there” mentality won’t put a Stanley Cup ring on McDavid’s finger.
All of this to say, McDavid probably owed it to himself to explore free agency at least to see if a team with a more precise winning blueprint could emerge, giving him a better chance at a title. July 1, 2026, would have offered a window into that, but McDavid chose not to look, and it could come back to haunt him if he never wins a championship. McDavid had all the leverage, which makes his decision baffling, because exploring free agency didn’t require him to leave Edmonton. He could have casually explored his options, had discussions with teams, listened to their pitches, and then re-signed with Edmonton—something that might have pushed the Oilers to step up their game and get creative with their roster. But the Oilers didn’t need to worry about losing McDavid, and it seems this has led to some apathy across the organization, as they don’t seem to be a group hungry to win.
Generational players across all leagues have frequently tested free agency. NBA superstar LeBron James famously took his talents to Miami nearly 15 years ago, and MLB superstar pitcher Paul Skenes will likely follow suit one day. It’s common, and not all players do it because they’re leaving; they do it for a variety of reasons. They can because the process gives them power, and it’s one of the few times they get to fully control their own destiny.
McDavid could have taken a different route, but he didn’t. While he’s given the Oilers a short leash to build a winner around him, he could have kept that leash even tighter, which might have pushed the Oilers to solve their roster issues more quickly. It could also have generated a story that might have become a sensation across all platforms—a broader narrative focusing on a star-driven tale on a smaller scale than MLB superstar Shohei Ohtani’s. The buzz would have been enormous and arguably the biggest NHL story since the Oilers traded Gretzky to the Los Angeles Kings.
Moving on could have been a great branding opportunity for McDavid to become even more mainstream, but he chose the safe, comfortable route in Edmonton. It’s a loyalty decision, and it’s completely understandable given that the Oilers have been close to a title in the last two years and he has built a bond with his teammates. For his legacy, though, he might need to chase greatness in a different city in the next two and a half years.
Breaking Down The Top Value Trades Of The 2025 Offseason
We’re only just past the quarter mark of the regular season, but some of last offseason’s trades have already proven valuable for specific teams. While it’s difficult to judge a trade based on a small sample size, some moves have yielded such early gains that it’s clear the trade was a win, especially considering the low cost to acquire the player.
Notably missing from the list is Golden Knights forward Mitch Marner; however, since the move was expected in free agency, it was not included. Clearly, it’s been a significant acquisition for Vegas. Nonetheless, given the article’s tone, it was left off the list.
The first trade involves the Blackhawks acquiring forward André Burakovsky from the Kraken in exchange for forward Joe Veleno, who was subsequently bought out. Initially, this move didn’t attract much attention, but early this season, it’s clear that it’s a great deal for Chicago. Burakovsky, a two-time Stanley Cup champion, was a very productive scorer before joining the Kraken, surpassing 44 points in three consecutive seasons with the Avalanche before signing a five-year, $27.5MM contract as an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2022. While Burakovsky addressed a definite need for Seattle, there were concerns at the time that head coach Dave Hakstol’s system might negatively affect his numbers. That’s precisely what happened, as his production dropped to 30 goals and 62 assists in 177 games over three seasons with Seattle. Multiple significant injuries didn’t help those numbers.
From Seattle’s perspective, this summer’s trade was a salary dump aimed at moving a player who wasn’t making a significant contribution. Chicago correctly saw an opportunity to acquire an offensive forward at a low cost, and it has worked out very well so far. The 30-year-old Burakovsky has scored seven goals and added eight assists in 18 games, and he is now being used in more favorable offensive roles with better zone starts and more ice time alongside Connor Bedard. However, several warning signs with Burakovsky could lead to issues later, including his unsustainable shooting percentage (26.9%) and a PDO (104.8) that is likely to decline. 
When the Anaheim Ducks acquired Chris Kreider from the New York Rangers, many fans believed that Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek had done the Rangers a favor regarding salary cap issues. The trade sent Kreider and a 2025 fourth-round pick to the Ducks in exchange for prospect Carey Terrance and a 2025 third-round pick. The cost to acquire Kreider was minimal, as the 34-year-old is set to earn $6.5MM in the final two years of his contract and had his stats drop significantly last season, with 22 goals and just eight assists in 68 games. The Ducks probably saw Kreider as a valuable veteran leader who could score goals and be tough to play against. He’s demonstrated that so far, with 10 goals and six assists in 19 games. Kreider isn’t going to shoot 24% for the rest of the season, but even if he regresses to his career average (15.3%), he should still score 30 goals again, making this trade a significant win for the Ducks.
Next on the list was a very quiet transaction that has paid off significantly so far: the Penguins’ trade for goaltender Arturs Silovs. The trade sent prospect Chase Stillman and a 2027 fourth-round pick back to the Canucks. It was an interesting gamble for the Penguins, but one that made a lot of sense given their goaltending situation at the time. Silovs had just been named the MVP of the Calder Cup Playoffs with AHL Abbotsford and had shown potential as an NHL goaltender in previous seasons. With the Canucks locking in Thatcher Demko and Kevin Lankinen on long-term deals, it seemed likely Silovs would be moved, especially since he might have been claimed on waivers at the start of this season. Vancouver did well to get what they did for him, but the Penguins have found a reliable netminder at a low cost, and given his age, he could be an NHL goalie for many years.
The risk with Silovs has always been his consistency, and that remains a concern even though he’s posted good numbers this season. In 11 games, the 24-year-old is 4-3-4 with a .908 SV% and a 2.74 GAA. His underlying numbers look even better as he’s posted a 5.8 goals saved above expected (per MoneyPuck). The season is still early, but so far, this looks like a big win for the Penguins. Silovs might not be an NHL starter long-term, but if he keeps up his current play, he could become a reliable backup to Pittsburgh’s goalie of the future, Sergei Murashov.
Sticking with the Metropolitan Division, we examine the Trevor Zegras trade to the Flyers. The 24-year-old was traded by the Ducks on June 23, in exchange for center Ryan Poehling, the Blue Jackets’ 2025 second-round pick (No. 45 overall), and Philadelphia’s 2026 fourth-rounder. The return to the Ducks seemed underwhelming at the time, and after Zegras’ start to the season, it feels even less impressive. Through 21 games in Philadelphia, Zegras has scored seven goals and 14 assists, while Poehling has just one goal and five assists in 16 games.
The Ducks essentially had to move Zegras, whose play had fallen off considerably in Anaheim and who needed a fresh start elsewhere. The Flyers were more than happy to take a chance, and so far, it has worked out well. While some of Zegras’ success this season has been due to favorable deployment and a fair bit of luck, his level of play feels the most sustainable among all the players on the list. He is shooting slightly above his career average, his PDO is marginally higher, and his usage aligns well with his skills. All that said, none of this is a significant departure from his time in Anaheim, but Flyers head coach Rick Tocchet and his staff have managed to get more out of Zegras. It’s worth noting that Tocchet has a track record of getting the best from enigmatic players, with Phil Kessel being a prime example during their time together in Pittsburgh. If Tocchet has truly found a way to maximize Zegras’ potential, it will go a long way in helping the Flyers regain relevance.
Photo by Danny Wild-Imagn Images
The Flames Have To Pick A Direction
The Flames are expected to be active in the trade market, but don’t expect a complete teardown. Team president Don Maloney opposes the idea, telling Sportsnet’s Eric Francis that a last-place finish is “the farthest from our mind.”
Calgary has tasted precious little playoff action over the last decade and a half, appearing in the postseason just five times since 2009 and not at all in the previous three seasons. This lack of meaningful hockey likely means that the fans and the franchise don’t want to stomach a full-scale rebuild that could mean another three to five consecutive seasons – at least – without playoff action.
That being said, floating the idea of stripping the roster down to the studs isn’t surprising given that the Flames have hit the bottom of the standings and have some veteran players who probably aren’t part of the team’s future. Defenseman Rasmus Andersson is a pending UFA and will attract plenty of interest from contending teams as the season approaches the trade deadline. Nazem Kadri remains a top target for teams, although Calgary seems relatively lukewarm about trading the veteran center, with Maloney commenting that Calgary needs more Kadri’s and not less. Most of the trade speculation isn’t the main issue on the ice, but it’s definitely a consideration for some players. Last year, Calgary seemed ready to take a step forward this season, but after a rough start, the rest of the year’s outlook appears uncertain.
Calgary experienced a quiet summer, leaving them uncertain about their short and long-term plans. They are not a contender at the moment, but they also do not appear fully committed to a rebuild, creating an interesting dynamic similar to the one the Capitals had a few years ago. Back then, they made forward-looking moves in the interim, hoping to retool on the fly.
That strategy proved very successful for Washington last season, as they became one of the top teams in the NHL. It seems to be a blueprint other teams are adopting to avoid the lengthy rebuild that became common in the 2000s and 2010s. While it has worked for Washington and helped the Penguins through part of this season, it’s a gamble because the risk is becoming a non-playoff team that neither qualifies for the postseason nor gets a high draft pick. That’s where Pittsburgh has been over the past three seasons, and a similar situation occurred with the Flames before trading Jarome Iginla to the Penguins in 2013.
Calgary has several desirable players who could bring future assets in the trade market. The aforementioned Andersson and Kadri are the top trade chips, but the Flames also have several other pending UFAs. Forward Ryan Lomberg and defenseman Jake Bean are both in the last years of their contracts, and although neither is a high-impact player, they should have a market as the deadline nears. Lomberg is a former Stanley Cup winner who doesn’t get much ice time in Calgary and is a frequent hitter. He has just three goals and 11 assists in 100 games as a member of the Flames, but he wasn’t signed for his scoring. Despite being undersized at just 5’9”, Lomberg plays a high-energy game and can get under opponents’ skin. All of these traits are highly valuable during the playoffs, which should make him an easy trade for the Flames, but he might not return much in a deal.
Bean is another player on an expiring deal who probably won’t fetch much if Calgary decides to move him. The 27-year-old has been a virtual non-factor since signing a two-year, $3.5MM deal in 2024, with nine points and a -7 rating in 77 games. For someone whose puck-moving ability is his calling card, that’s simply not enough output. As such, he’s become a frequent healthy scratch, only skating in three of Calgary’s last 11 contests.
Andersson, Lomberg, and Bean are the Flames’ notable UFAs this season, but apart from Andersson, they won’t significantly contribute to building future assets. This puts the team in a tricky position if they don’t plan to move Kadri. Should they trade their UFAs, keep everyone else, and wait until next summer to restart their rebuild? Should they approach next summer with caution, like they did this past year? Or should they completely tear down the roster and rebuild around Dustin Wolf and their younger stars? Flames general manager Craig Conroy will need to answer these questions soon, as the answers will shape the team’s direction. It’s okay to change course if circumstances change, but if Calgary doesn’t develop a clear plan soon, it risks losing its direction.
Nobody expected them to be Stanley Cup contenders this season, but the hope was that the young players would continue to develop. Since it’s still early in the season, there is time for that to happen. Some players have already moved up to the NHL (Wolf, Matt Coronato, Zayne Parekh), with more expected to follow in Cole Reschny and Hunter Brzustewicz. However, it’s fair to question whether the Flames will have enough top-tier talent when they’re ready to compete, which makes it essential to gather future assets for current veterans – especially when those veterans likely won’t be part of the Flames’ next competitive window.
The Kadri discussion is confusing, but it might be the Flames playing a long game to get the best value for the 35-year-old. Calgary doesn’t have many top-tier players to trade, and Kadri could be one of their last chances to acquire valuable pieces for the future. After posting an impressive 35 goals and 32 assists in 82 games last season, Kadri has started slowly this season with just four goals and 10 assists in 22 games. While his numbers look to be dropping off, it is fair to point out that he is shooting just 5.6% this season, compared to 12.5% last year and 10.9% over his 17-year NHL career. If he regresses to the mean, he should still pot 25 goals this season and will remain in demand on the trade market.
Calgary might hit a boiling point soon if they keep losing, and it could turn into a situation where they try to move every player over 30 who isn’t Mikael Backlund. While that might be the plan, it’s hard to see anyone trading for Jonathan Huberdeau and his hefty contract. But a player like Blake Coleman might generate some interest (with money retained), or even defenseman MacKenzie Weegar could be moved, despite still having plenty of term left on his deal. Coleman has actually garnered the most tangible interest of the Flames’ trade chips thus far in the season and has already been linked to a return to the Devils.
Regardless of what Calgary does, it’s hard to imagine them continuing the season in their current direction. They have more young players coming up and still have veterans who can perform at a high level. While Huberdeau’s contract isn’t going to age well, the rising salary cap will lessen its impact.
Breaking Down The Early Free-Agent Victories
At the quarter mark of the NHL regular season, there are some early wins for teams that took a chance on the free agency market. While some of the higher-priced free agent signings, like Mitch Marner of the Golden Knights and Mikael Granlund of the Ducks, might be obvious choices for this piece, we will focus on some of the more under-the-radar signings that have delivered fantastic results so far.
Avalanche forward Victor Olofsson was a late addition to the team’s roster, signing a one-year deal on Aug. 20 for $1.575MM. For most of his career, Olofsson was a fairly one-dimensional perimeter scorer who primarily shot the puck well. That all changed last season, when he made a solid defensive impact with the Golden Knights and contributed decent depth scoring with 15 goals and 14 assists in 56 games. He still dealt with injuries, which have been an issue in his career, but his performance was enough for AFP Analytics to project that the 30-year-old would sign for three years at a cap hit of $3.41MM.
However, Olofsson’s injury history and inconsistent play likely kept his market soft. This was great news for Colorado, which signed him up. He’s been excellent to start the year with six goals and nine assists in 22 games. As good as Olofsson has been at five-on-five, he has done a lot of damage with the man advantage, registering six points thus far, which is quite a number given that he had just eight points on the power play last year.
Olofsson was effectively signed to replace a departing Jonathan Drouin, whose salary could no longer fit within the Avalanche’s cap structure, as Drouin was able to secure a two-year, $8MM contract with the Islanders. Colorado had Drouin on a discount for the previous two seasons, and the Ste-Agathe, Quebec native impressed for the Avalanche, recording 30 goals and 63 assists in 122 games over those two seasons. Drouin kept his game simple with Colorado and used his skill set to be as effective as possible.
His free-agent market was limited because fit was an essential part of the equation, but he seems to have found a good fit with the Islanders, recording 14 points in 22 games. What makes Drouin’s start really promising is that he hasn’t scored much on the power play, with just three assists in 80 minutes of time on the man advantage. Last season, he had 12 points in 132 power-play minutes for the whole season, and if he can get back to that level of production at five-on-four, his numbers will look great at the end of the year.
It’s now been six years since the Ducks bought out Corey Perry, and many wondered what his career prospects were as he approached his mid-30s. Perry reinvented himself, shifting from a scoring power forward to more of a net-front presence and pest. Since the buyout, Perry has played for six different teams and reached the Stanley Cup Finals—and lost—five times. The 40-year-old signed this summer with the Kings, agreeing to a one-year deal for $2MM plus an additional $2MM in potential performance bonuses. To start the season, Perry has been on a hot streak, scoring seven goals and adding five assists in 14 games while playing nearly 15 minutes a night. His ice time is the highest it’s been since 2018-19, though it’s likely unsustainable for the entire season, as is his current production. However, even if he slows down in the later stages of the year, he should still net at least 30 points, which is excellent value for the contract he signed. Ultimately, the Kings signed Perry for his playoff impact; however, his start to the regular season has been a bonus so far.
Jack Roslovic has faced challenges navigating unrestricted free agency, settling for one-year deals below market value in consecutive summers. This year, he waited until Oct. 8 to secure a new contract, agreeing to a one-year deal worth $1.5MM with the Edmonton Oilers. Roslovic has responded by starting the season strongly, with seven goals and eight assists in his first 21 games. His fit in Edmonton seems natural so far, which makes sense given his speed and skill. Roslovic was an unusual fit with Carolina last season but made the most of it, recording 22 goals and 17 assists in 81 games. Suppose he can maintain his current pace until season’s end. In that case, it’s unlikely he’ll need to sign another one-year deal, especially since he has worked on and improved other parts of his game, notably his faceoff ability, which was questionable early in his career. Roslovic is making the league sit up and take notice of him, and he’s likely hopeful they will consider him in free agency next summer.
Shifting back to the Metropolitan Division, the Penguins made a couple of under-the-radar signings on July 1 that have paid off big time early in this season. Justin Brazeau signed a two-year, $3MM deal in free agency this past summer. Very little attention was paid to the move, which isn’t surprising given that Brazeau didn’t break into the NHL until he was 25 and had just 95 career NHL games across two seasons. However, the New Liskeard, Ontario native showed enough in his short career for the Penguins to take a chance on him, and so far, the returns have been excellent—he has six goals and six assists in 12 games. Now, an unfortunate upper-body injury has slowed Brazeau’s season, just as he was gaining traction on a line with Evgeni Malkin and Anthony Mantha. Brazeau will likely miss a couple more weeks, but if he continues to trend in the right direction, the Penguins will have a bargain forward on their hands for another season and a half.
Parker Wotherspoon was another shrewd signing on July 1 by Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas. The 28-year-old played well last season in a bottom-pairing role and signed with Pittsburgh, likely sensing that there was an opportunity for a bigger role on the left side of the team’s defense. The Penguins entered the summer with arguably the worst left side in the NHL and made some depth moves to create competition and improve the position. So far, it has worked, as Wotherspoon has secured a spot alongside Erik Karlsson and has become the team’s top pairing. Wotherspoon is signed for another season after this one as part of his two-year $2MM deal, and like Brazeau, could provide Pittsburgh with a major contributor at a bargain basement price for one more season. He’s approaching a career high in points and has been part of rejuvenating Karlsson’s game, providing him with a reliable defensive partner for the first time since his days in Ottawa.
There is always an inherent risk when signing players in free agency. Olofsson, Drouin, and Perry have all proven to be reliable veterans earlier in their careers and weren’t considered high-risk signings. Still, it’s not surprising to see them contributing as they are, given their past performance and their strong showings last season with their previous teams. For Brazeau and Wotherspoon, signing them was essentially a no-risk decision for Pittsburgh, and they have worked out exceptionally well. Dubas did well to sign them for an additional season, a low-risk gamble that could pay off significantly if the rest of the season unfolds well. Neither man has contributed at this level before, and it will be interesting to see if they can maintain this pace throughout the entire season.