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Summer Synopsis: Nashville Predators

at CDT | by 5 Comments

With training camps now upon us, the bulk of the heavy lifting has been done from a roster perspective.  Most unrestricted free agents have found new homes, the arbitration period has come and gone, and the trade market has cooled.  Accordingly, it’s a good time to take a look at what each team has accomplished this offseason.  Next up is a look at the Nashville Predators.

The Predators are a team that many felt would compete for a Stanley Cup last season after they made a massive splurge in free agency the previous summer, acquiring Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei. However, the high-priced spending spree had the opposite effect on Nashville, as the team became slow and disjointed, and was never able to put together a solid stretch of play to gain any traction. This summer, general manager Barry Trotz was much more conservative, opting to tweak a few things and run it back next season in the hopes that last year was an anomaly.

Draft

1-5 – F Brady Martin, Sault-Ste Marie (OHL)
1-21 – D Cameron Reid, Kitchener (OHL)
1-26 – F Ryker Lee, Barrie (OHL)
2-35 – D Jacob Romback, Lincoln (USHL)
2-58 – G Jack Ivankovic, Brampton (OHL)
4-122- D Alex Huang, Chicoutimi (QMJHL)
6-163 – D Daniel Nieminen, Lahti Pelicans (Liiga)

Nashville will be hoping that Martin develops into a top-line player sooner rather than later, especially given their lack of depth at center. Martin is offensively capable, but what is more valuable than his scoring ability is his overall game and his capacity to play in various roles and assignments. Some scouts consider him a Swiss-Army knife who can adapt to many different roles. He has a high compete level and isn’t afraid to get physical, which should help him if his offensive game doesn’t immediately translate to the NHL or develops more slowly as he turns pro. Martin isn’t a pure scorer, but his floor in the NHL is likely as a top-nine forward, either at center or on the wing. Some believe he might be better suited to the wing, but given Nashville’s needs, he will be given every opportunity to become their center of the future.

With their second of three first-round picks, the Predators moved up in the draft to select OHL defenseman Reid. The Kitchener Rangers defender isn’t the most consistent defensively and can feel pressure with the puck in the defensive zone. Still, his offensive instincts are strong, and he is seen as a potential power-play quarterback.

With their third and final pick of the first round, the Predators picked Lee, a scoring forward who may take some time adjusting to the NHL before he settles in. Lee can struggle with consistency, which could be problematic as he attempts to become a full-time NHL player. Lee isn’t projected to be a topline forward, but he should be an excellent NHLer who surpasses 50 points per season.

With their second-round pick, the Predators drafted a very large defenseman in Rombach. Standing 6’6”, Rombach will intimidate opponents with his size and his mean streak, while playing a reliable defensive game. His offensive skills are limited and may require improvement if he hopes to make it to the NHL, as well as adjusting to the league’s speed. He is a project in many ways, but the Predators have a knack for developing their defenseman, so he should be in a good position for his growth.

Trade Acquisitions

D Nicolas Hague (from Vegas)
F Erik Haula (from New Jersey)

The Predators acquired Hague and a conditional third-round pick in exchange for forward Colton Sissons and defenseman Jeremy Lauzon. The Predators were quick to then sign Hague to a four-year extension worth a total of $22MM. The deal, in theory, made sense for Nashville as they needed help on the backend; however, the execution left a lot to be desired as the trade and subsequent contract extension received heavy criticism.

Nashville needed help on the right side, and Hague effectively slides into Nashville’s third pairing, which is probably where he belongs, given his skill set. The problem is that Hague slides into the left side, and this makes the trade and the $5.5MM AAV more puzzling. The idea might be to flip Roman Josi to the right side, but then it pushes Hague into the top four, which isn’t ideal. The main issue with giving Hague that money is that he isn’t suited for that role and will likely be forced to play above his perfect slot.

Haula was acquired from the Devils on June 18th in exchange for defenseman Jeremy Hanzel and a 2025 fourth-round pick. It’s reasonable to question why Nashville believed this move was necessary and to wonder what Nashville will gain from Haula at this stage of his career. Last year was a lacklustre season for the 34-year-old in nearly every statistical category, as his offense declined significantly along with his underlying numbers. At a $3.15MM cap hit, Haula isn’t a bargain, but he isn’t a drain on the salary cap either, or he’s signed for just this season. There’s a chance he bounces back into the 40-point range, and if he does, this trade is a win for Nashville. However, if he has a season similar to last year, it won’t be viewed positively in hindsight.

The trade was probably a result of Nashville desperately needing help in their bottom six, and although Haula isn’t exactly a game-changer, he provided a modest upgrade. The worst-case scenario for Nashville is that Haula and/or the team struggle, and he gets traded at the deadline for a package similar to what Nashville sent to the Devils.

UFA Signings

D Nicklaus Perbix (two years, $5.5MM)

GM Barry Trotz focused on strengthening his defensive core by signing Perbix to a two-year deal. The 27-year-old is a three-year NHL veteran who does a solid job of carrying and moving the puck and can add some offense. Despite his skills, he did turn the puck over quite a bit last year, which he will need to work on since he won’t be as protected in Nashville as he was in Tampa Bay.

Perbix has a good size at 6’4”, 209 lbs, but he doesn’t hit a lot, recording just 50 hits last season in 74 games. He had six goals and 13 assists last season, marking a decline from the previous year, when he scored two goals and had 22 assists in 77 games.

Nashville needed to strengthen the right side of its defensive core, and while there is nothing inherently wrong with Perbix, he isn’t likely to crack the top four, and if he does, it wouldn’t reflect well on the state of the Predators’ defensive core.

RFA Re-Signings

D Nicolas Hague (four years, $22MM) 

As mentioned earlier, the Hague extension presents issues because AFP Analytics projected him for a two-year deal at just over $2.6MM per season. That $5.2MM total package was exceeded by the $5.5MM AAV Hague actually received, which could be problematic if he performs as he has in the past. Hague’s contract aligns with extensions given to other defensemen, like Marcus Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks; however, Pettersson was a pending UFA and is a much better all-around defenseman and a proven top-four option.

Departures

F Kieffer Bellows (signed in Sweden)
D Marc Del Gaizo (signed with Montreal, one year, $775K)*
F Grigori Denisenko (signed in KHL)
D Mark Friedman (signed in Sweden)
D Jeremy Lauzon (traded to Vegas)
D Jake Livingstone (unsigned UFA)
F Ondřej Pavel (signed in Finland)
D Luke Prokop (signed with AHL Bakersfield)
F Colton Sissons (traded to Vegas)
F Jakub Vrana (signed in Sweden)
F Jesse Ylonen (signed in Sweden)

*-denotes two-way contract

The good news for Nashville is that not much talent left the organization this summer. However, there is an argument that as much or more talent departed as returned, at least at the NHL level. The Hague trade with Vegas effectively sent away Sissons, who is a defensive bottom-six forward that can contribute a bit offensively and handles tough minutes, as well as Lauzon, a very physical defenseman who doesn’t contribute offensively but isn’t much of a downgrade from Hague.

It’s fair to wonder if Hague and Haula are significant upgrades over Sissons and Lauzon, especially considering Hague and Haula make $9MM a season combined. At the same time, Lauzon and Sissons earn less than $3.5MM together. Adding the extra costs to acquire Hague and Haula results in a confusing set of transactions from Nashville’s point of view.

The remaining departures are mainly tweeners and AHL players who never really figured into Nashville’s future and won’t have much impact. Vrana was a good gamble at the end of last season when Nashville claimed him off waivers; however, he wasn’t a fit, recording two goals and an assist in 13 games. Vrana signed in Sweden this summer, and at 29, it’s unlikely he’ll return to the NHL. The same could probably be said for Friedman, who had a few stints in the NHL but couldn’t stick with Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, or Nashville.

Aside from Sissons and Lauzon, none of the other players who left Nashville received one-way NHL money, which shows just how weak the group was.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Predators have plenty of cap space for the upcoming season, with just over $9.34MM available (according to PuckPedia), and they could add key players to their lineup midseason if they decide. Next summer, they will have around $40MM in cap space and need to address a few RFAs, but they might also make a splash in free agency if they choose to, although this may not be the best move considering general manager Barry Trotz’s recent free agent signings. The Predators aren’t in a bad spot with the cap, but if their pricey veterans perform the way they did this past season, Nashville could be in for a world of cap hurt, as their high-priced veterans have term remaining and would become very difficult to move.

Key Questions

What is Josi’s future?

Josi experienced headaches and fatigue last season and was eventually diagnosed with postural tachycardia syndrome, also known as POTS. Josi is now back at full strength and participating in the Predators’ training camp, optimistic about his future. The 35-year-old is only a year away from being a Norris Trophy finalist and played well last season when healthy. If he can regain his form and stay healthy, it will significantly help the Predators in regaining relevance.

Who will be the top centers?

The Predators’ center depth currently leaves much to be desired, as they lack a true 1C, and will have to rely on Ryan O’Reilly in the top spot by default. Some might suggest Stamkos could fill that role as well, but at this stage of his career, he’s better suited to the wing. O’Reilly would be a better fit as the 2C, but the Predators aren’t in a position to deploy him in a role that matches his skillset. The second-line center spot is still open, but the most likely candidate is Fedor Svechkov, who had a mediocre rookie season last year and is aiming to improve.

Can the offense bounce back?

The Predators’ top offensive players underperformed last season, except for Filip Forsberg. It was a significant decline for Stamkos and Marchessault, and the Predators will count on both players to bounce back and regain some of the scoring they displayed during their free agent walk years two seasons ago. Stamkos, in particular, experienced a sharp drop, going from a point-per-game player with the Lightning to a modest 53 points in 82 games, which is below his usual level. Marchessault’s offensive stats weren’t far off his career averages, but his turnovers were terrible, and he’ll need to improve that if he hopes to re-establish himself.

Photo by Brett Holmes-Imagn Images

Summer Synopsis: New Jersey Devils

at CDT | by 7 Comments

With training camps upon us, the bulk of the heavy lifting has been done from a roster perspective.  Most unrestricted free agents have found new homes, the arbitration period has come and gone, and the trade market has cooled.  Accordingly, it’s a good time to take a look at what each team has accomplished this offseason.  Next up is a look at the New Jersey Devils.

The Devils crashed and burned last season under the weight of expectations, injuries and instability. The club went from being a Stanley Cup contender to dropping out of the first round of the playoffs pretty quietly. Now, with a group that is a year older and has some battle scars, the expectation is that they should bounce back and compete in the Eastern Conference once again. There are still some salary cap concerns to address, but the Devils have one of the top rosters in the East and should be a playoff team at the very least, and potentially a contender to win the Metropolitan Division.

Draft

2-50 – F Conrad Fondrk,  U.S. National Team Development Program (USNTDP)
2-63 – RW Benjamin Kevan, Des Moines (USHL)
3-90 – F Mason Moe, Madison (USHL)
4-99 – G Trenten Bennett, Kempville (CCHL)
4-114 – F Gustav Hillstrom, Brynäs IF (SHL)
6-161 – RW David Rozsíval, Bílí Tygři Liberec (Czechia U20)
6-178 – D Sigge Holmgren, Brynäs IF (J20 Nationell)

The Devils didn’t have a first-round pick this year and only selected midway through the second round, taking Fondrk with the 50th overall pick. He’s the kind of high-risk, high-reward choice that the Devils should target with their limited draft options. Fondrk has excellent playmaking skills and can create space for himself using his hockey IQ. His style is very similar to Tampa Bay forward Jake Guentzel. Fondrk can play on the wing or at center, and his versatility will be a valuable asset, complemented by his good shooting and passing skills.

Now, for the downside, Fondrk has a notable injury history, having suffered a leg injury last year that prematurely ended his season. His defensive game isn’t strong either, but he may be able to improve it with NHL-level coaching. Additionally, his play along the boards isn’t anything to write home about, which could hinder his chances of becoming a regular NHLer if his other offensive skills don’t adapt well to the NHL game.

Kevan was a late second-round pick and projects as a top-nine forward who can contribute secondary offense and be a nuisance for opposing teams. He has good hockey instincts in tight and should be a challenge for opposing goalies to play against if he can fill out. His speed isn’t top-end, but it’s adequate to assist him on the forecheck. There are some issues with his consistency, especially his goal-scoring, which can dry up at times in the USHL. Clearly, that problem will only become more challenging as he moves up the ranks in professional hockey.

In the third round, the Devils picked Moe, who adds a two-way presence to their pipeline. Moe isn’t likely to be a high scorer, but his playmaking is solid, and he plays a safe, steady game. To make the NHL, he’ll need to bulk up since he probably isn’t destined for a top-six spot, and if he wants a checking role, he’ll need to become tougher to play against.

Bennett was a fourth-round pick, and he’s the type of goaltender teams should consider taking a chance on in later rounds. You can’t teach or develop what Bennett possesses, and that is size. Standing at 6’8”, Bennett is evident in the net. However, he’s still raw and will be a project for the Devils, which is acceptable when drafting in the later rounds. His positioning is solid, which isn’t too surprising given his size, but his rebound control and tracking are significant concerns, and there are potential issues with his composure. Bennett isn’t likely to make an NHL lineup anytime soon, and his career will largely depend on how well he can be coached and adapt to the adjustments his coaches will try to make to his game.

Trade Acquisitions

C Thomas Bordeleau (from San Jose)
D Jeremy Hanzel (from Nashville)

The trade involving Bordeleau was a solid deal for the Devils, as they swapped an older AHL player, Shane Bowers, for the younger Bordeleau, who is still a prospect but is nearing the end of his development at 23 years old. Bordeleau has good speed and decent puck skills, but is slightly undersized and has yet to establish himself as a regular NHL player. His AHL offensive numbers are solid, giving the San Jose Barracuda a secondary scoring option.

In the NHL, Bordeleau has six goals and 12 assists in 44 games, averaging 15:04 of ice time per game. Last season, the Houston, Texas native played in just one game with the Sharks and was largely blocked by a logjam of forwards in San Jose. Being traded to a much deeper team in New Jersey might not immediately open a clear path for Bordeleau to reach the NHL. Still, if the Devils face numerous injuries again, there could be an opportunity for him to be called up and try to establish himself as a regular NHL player.

Hanzel arrived in New Jersey with a fourth-round pick in the Erik Haula trade. He was probably more of an afterthought in the deal, but he could have an impact in the AHL this season. At 22 years old, he’s worth considering for the Devils, as his puck skills and vision could translate well to the AHL if he improves some other aspects of his game. The chances of him playing in the NHL are almost zero, but if he finds some consistency, it could help him stay in the AHL.

UFA Signings

D Calen Addison (one year, $775K)*
G Jake Allen (five years, $9MM)^
F Connor Brown (four years, $12MM)
F Dennis Cholowski (one year, $775K)
F Angus Crookshank (two years, $1.55MM)*
F Evgenii Dadonov (one year, $1MM)

*-denotes two-way contract
^-denotes re-signing

The Devils began free agency by re-signing Allen to a surprising five-year contract extension. The length of the deal caught many off guard, as did the AAV of $1.8MM, which was significantly lower than projections. AFP Analytics had forecasted a two-year, $7MM contract for Allen, but he took roughly half that AAV and secured an additional three years. Last season, Allen was outstanding and was considered the top goaltender on the free agent market, making his contract even more unexpected. He had the ninth-highest goals saved above expected in the NHL last season at 18.4, and surpassed all the expectations set for him.

Adding Brown came with a steep cost in terms of the deal’s length, but it slightly exceeded projections. AFP Analytics forecasted Brown to have a three-year contract at $2.92MM per season, so he modestly surpassed those figures on both duration and salary. Brown has struggled with scoring over the past three seasons, but regained his form last year with 13 goals and 17 assists in 82 games, which aligns more closely with his career averages. The deal for Brown involves significant risk due to his ongoing scoring struggles and injury history in previous seasons. There is considerable upside to the contract, but if Brown regresses to his 2022-24 numbers, it could become problematic.

Dadonov is a strong buy-low candidate for the Devils and could be a depth scoring option after tallying 20 goals and 20 assists in 80 games last season. It was surprising to see the 36-year-old accept such a low cap hit and term. AFP Analytics estimated that Dadonov would sign a two-year deal at $3.25MM per season, meaning New Jersey might have a steal if Dadonov can match his production from last year. While he doesn’t skate and play as aggressively as he used to, he still skates well, passes effectively, and currently has a good offensive touch.

RFA Re-Signings

F Thomas Bordeleau (one year, $775K)*
G Nico Daws (two years, $1.625MM)*
F Cody Glass (two years, $5MM)
D Luke Hughes (seven years, $63MM)
F Nathan Legare (one year, $775K)*
F Marc McLaughlin (one year, $775K)*

*-denotes two-way contract

There was some debate about whether the Devils would non-tender Glass, but in the end, they decided to retain his rights and offered him a two-year contract at the same pay he was earning on his previous deal. It was an excellent outcome for Glass, who was a salary cap casualty last summer in a trade to the Penguins and was eventually moved to the Devils at the NHL Trade Deadline. Glass hasn’t been able to reproduce all the talent that made him a top-six draft pick. Still, he has a clear skill set that makes him an NHL player. His game is straightforward; he’s strong defensively, but he hasn’t been able to find much offensive production at the NHL level and probably never will live up to his draft position. That said, he’s an NHL fourth-line center, and a pretty solid one at that.

Finally, the Devils were able to lock in Hughes long-term, and although it took some time, they are surely happy with the result. Hughes’ absence could have become problematic if it leaked into the regular season, but fortunately, both sides agreed to an extension. Hughes carries the puck a ton and might be the fastest defensive skater in the league. His passing and playmaking are terrific and continue to develop, and he will likely keep getting better over the next few years, which should make his $9MM AAV a bargain very soon.

Departures

F Nathan Bastian (signed with Dallas, one year, $775K)
F Shane Bowers (traded to San Jose)
F Justin Dowling (signed with New York Rangers, two years, $1.55MM)*
D Brian Dumoulin (signed with Los Angeles, three years, $12MM)
F Nolan Foote (signed with Florida, one year, $775K)*
D Santeri Hatakka (signed in SHL)
F Erik Haula (traded to Nashville)
F Curtis Lazar (signed with Edmonton, one year, $775K)
G Isaac Poulter (signed with Winnipeg, one year, $775K)*
F Daniel Sprong (signed in KHL)
F Tomáš Tatar (signed in Switzerland)

*-denotes two-way contract

The Devils didn’t experience many significant losses this offseason, apart from a few depth forwards and Dumoulin. The Dumoulin contract was one of the most surprising of the offseason and was mainly overshadowed by his teammate Cody Ceci’s deal, which raised even more eyebrows.

Dumoulin remains a solid professional, able to keep the puck out of dangerous areas in the defensive zone and to move the puck effectively, thanks to decent passing skills. He still maintains reasonable gap control. Although he’s lost his quick first step in recent years, he has adapted to it. However, this has started to lead to more penalties when he loses a step or his man gets past him.

The loss of Haula, Lazar, and Tatar affects the bottom six somewhat, but general manager Tom Fitzgerald did a good job offsetting those moves by adding Brown and Dadonov and keeping Glass. The Devils gave up some defensive depth in reshuffling their bottom six, but they should gain more scoring depth from their third and fourth lines, which could ease some pressure on their top six.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Devils had just over $5MM available in cap space for the upcoming season with a 22-man roster, which did not include the salary of RFA defenseman Luke Hughes, who appears to have signed a long-term extension worth $9MM annually. This will put New Jersey over the salary cap by approximately $4MM. The Devils will likely place Johnathan Kovacevic on the LTIR to start the season. Still, due to the new CBA rules, they will only save $3.8MM of his $4MM salary, meaning they will need to do some additional maneuvering to become cap compliant at the start of the year.

Key Questions

Can the team stay healthy?

The Devils actually finished near the bottom of the league in man games lost, ranking ninth with 169 total games lost. The issue for New Jersey was the timing of the injuries and who they lost to injury. The Devils lost superstar forward Jack Hughes in early March and missed defensemen Jonas Siegenthaler and Dougie Hamilton for extended periods at the end of the year. With key players missing, the Devils stumbled down the stretch and were easily eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. If they hope to make an impact in the playoffs, it will be crucial for the team to stay healthy when the games matter most, from April to June.

Can they become a better even-strength team?

Last year, the Devils boasted one of the best power plays in the NHL and had an above-average penalty kill. That was encouraging because their even-strength scoring wasn’t robust, with only 172 goals in 82 games. The team mainly struggled to produce offense last season, and they will be counting on some of their summer additions to make a significant impact. It will also be the coaching staff’s job to optimize the lineups and deployment to maximize each player’s potential.

What does Hamilton’s future look like?

With the impending cap crunch, speculation has arisen that the Devils might consider trading Hamilton and his $9MM cap hit to another team. The 32-year-old has three years remaining on his contract and is still a productive player for New Jersey, but they need to move out money, and Hamilton makes a lot of it. There is a 10-team trade list that would make a move difficult, but there would still be a market for him, as he is a right-shot defenseman who can contribute offensively.

Photo by Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images

Summer Synopsis: New York Islanders

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With training camps now upon us, the bulk of the heavy lifting has been done from a roster perspective.  Most unrestricted free agents have found new homes, the arbitration period has come and gone, and the trade market has cooled.  Accordingly, it’s a good time to take a look at what each team has accomplished this offseason.  Next up is a look at the New York Islanders.

The Islanders are a team in transition at the moment, having missed the playoffs last season and winning the NHL Draft Lottery. The team dealt with numerous injury issues last season, as well as some uneven play from the top players when they were healthy. They didn’t make significant changes this summer on the ice, but off the ice, Mathieu Darche took over general manager duties from Lou Lamoriello. Darche didn’t make any significant additions to the roster, opting for a conservative approach to retooling a veteran team that’s in the midst of a transition. The Islanders enter this season as a major unknown, which could work in their favor as they try to return to the postseason.

Draft

1-1 – D Matthew Schaefer, Erie (OHL)
1-16 – F Victor Eklund, Djurgårdens IF (HockeyAllsvenskan)
1-17 – D Kashawn Aitcheson, Barrie (OHL)
2-42 – F Daniil Prokhorov, HC Dinamo Saint Petersburg (MHL)
3-74 – F Luca Romano, Kitchener (OHL)
4-104 – F Tomas Poletin, Lahti Pelicans (Liiga)
5-138 – D Sam Laurila, Fargo Force (USHL)
6-170 – G Burke Hood, Vancouver (WHL)
7-202 – RW Jacob Kvasnicka, U.S. NTDP (USHL)

The Islanders weren’t expected to make much impact in the first round after drafting Schaefer; however, the Noah Dobson trade with the Montreal Canadiens generated a lot of buzz and earned New York two extra first-round picks, which they used to select Eklund and Aitcheson. This move could effectively reset the Islanders’ core for years to come.

Schaefer is expected to join the NHL roster this season and is seen as a potential franchise defenseman. He is intelligent with the puck, agile, and performs well both defensively and during transitions. He dealt with some injuries last season and might need to have his playing time limited in his first NHL year.

Eklund was a draft steal and could be a valuable pick for the Islanders at 16. Some scouts ranked Eklund in their top five a month before the draft, or at least in the top 10, but he fell to the middle of the first round and will likely have a chip on his shoulder as he tries to prove his critics wrong. Eklund’s size is a concern, but he plays bigger than he is and has no issues initiating contact, as he’s a relentless forechecker who plays well below the goal line, making good use of his puck-handling skills.

Aitcheson is another prospect who isn’t afraid of physical play and enjoys mixing it up. He’s not overly tall at 6’1”, but he can fight, battle in the corners, and clear the front of the net. He’s also capable offensively, as he likes to jump into the rush and is a solid puck carrier who can lead the play in transition.

In the second round, the Islanders picked Prokhorov, whose size stands out every time he’s on the ice. He’s tough to compete against at 6’6” and 209 lbs, but he has some defensive weaknesses, as he occasionally drifts out of position and lacks strong anticipation skills when not in possession of the puck. Offensively, his shot is decent but could use more accuracy. He also shows a bit of a lack of vision when handling the puck, which limits his options. All the necessary tools are there for Prokhorov, but he’ll be a project for the Islanders.

Outside of the first two rounds, it’s hard to gauge what the Islanders have. Romano probably has the most upside among the players picked in later rounds, but he will need to add size and strength if he hopes to be an everyday NHLer. Romano is mobile and a great puck-handler, which should create opportunities to play with skilled teammates. He’s also defensively responsible and could potentially be a penalty killer since he’s unafraid to battle in the corners and do the dirty work if needed. If he adds size, the Islanders will have found a steal in the third round.

Trade Acquisitions

LW Emil Heineman (from Montreal)

The Islanders acquire Heineman from the Canadiens along with two first-round picks for defenseman Dobson. In the short term, it’s clearly a big boost for the Habs, but the Islanders did well to get everything they did in the trade. Heineman isn’t a throw-in and should develop into a solid middle-six NHLer. He has a fantastic shot and can use it from various angles. His skating is also an asset, as he has a quick first step and can create separation from opponents to open up passing lanes for his teammates. His skating also helps him bother opponents while he’s on the forecheck, and he isn’t afraid to lay a hit on opposing defensemen.

While he has some strong offensive tools, Heineman isn’t going to carry the play on his own, and his passing leaves something to be desired. He isn’t likely to rack up many primary assists, which could limit his point production. He also experienced some inconsistency in his rookie season, but the Islanders are hopeful he can find stability with them and become a reliable contributor.

Heineman works hard and is quite strong on the opposite side of the puck. However, he sometimes overworks himself in the D zone, which leads to overcommitting and losing his position. With proper coaching, this can be fixed, but for now, his enthusiasm may work against him if he gets too eager when defending the zone.

UFA Signings

D Ethan Bear (one year, $775K)*
D Tony DeAngelo (one year, $1.75MM)^
F Jonathan Drouin (two years, $8MM)
F Matthew Highmore (one year, $775K)*
D Cole McWard (one year, $775K)*
G David Rittich (one year, $1MM)

*-denotes two-way contract
^-denotes re-signing

The Islanders didn’t make any big moves this offseason, but they did strengthen their forward group by adding Drouin, who is a good buy-low candidate. Drouin’s defensive game wasn’t strong for most of his career until 2023-24, when he simplified his offensive approach while playing with Colorado and became much more disciplined defensively. His numbers reflected that change, but his defensive play regressed to his norm last season, possibly due to injuries. Drouin has excellent vision and playmaking skills and should continue to rack up points as long as he stays healthy.

The risk in signing Drouin is that his simplified game was mainly due to his playing alongside top players in Colorado. There’s a chance his weaknesses could be exposed with the Islanders if he can’t perform with their top forwards. At the very least, he should produce .5 points per game, and if he can improve his defensive game to match his 2023-24 performance, he’ll be a valuable signing at $4MM a year.

Bear signifies a strong value signing after putting up excellent offensive numbers in the AHL last season. He will likely serve as a depth option for the Islanders this season but could be called upon to join the NHL lineup if injuries arise, similar to last year. Bear hasn’t played in the NHL since the 2023-24 season, but he was a reliable puck-moving defenseman during his time with the Edmonton Oilers.

DeAngelo returned to the Islanders after signing mid-season last year. He did what he usually does on the ice and posted good offensive numbers (four goals, 15 assists in 35 games), but performed poorly in the defensive zone. He received plenty of ice time in limited games, averaging over 23 minutes a night, which the Islanders will likely try to reduce if they have a healthy defensive core. If DeAngelo can stay disciplined and on the ice, his contract should be beneficial and offer good value to New York. However, if he reverts to some of his old habits, the Islanders are only on the hook for the season and can easily waive him without any long-term consequences. It’s a worthwhile gamble for the Islanders at this stage of their retool.

Rittich wasn’t very good last season, but he managed to secure an NHL contract with a $1MM guarantee. He posted a -11.4 goals saved above expected over 34 games with Los Angeles, but the Islanders probably won’t play him that much. Chances are, he will see limited NHL action since the Islanders have a reliable backup in Semyon Varlamov, who had injury issues last season. This is an insurance signing for New York, and it’s okay, even if Rittich’s game has some flaws; he’s suitable as a third-string option.

RFA Re-Signings

F Liam Foudy (one year, $775K)*
F Marc Gatcomb (one year, $900K)
RW Julien Gauthier (one year, $775K)*
F Emil Heineman (two years, $2.2MM)
RW Simon Holmström (two year, $7.25MM)
D Travis Mitchell (one year, $775K)*
D Alexander Romanov (eight years, $50MM)
F Maxim Tsyplakov (two years, $4.5MM)

*-denotes two-way contract

The extension to Romanov will be interesting to watch as he ages. The 24-year-old hits hard and blocks a lot of shots, but he was also responsible for many turnovers last season. Some might argue that he’s a good puck mover, but it’s worth questioning how much of that was him simply finding Dobson in a good spot and letting his partner do the work. Romanov will face a more challenging situation moving forward, and if he continues on his current path, this contract could prove to be a steal. However, if turnovers persist and he regresses without Dobson, the contract could ultimately prove to be a bad deal.

Holmstrom’s re-signing was a smart move, as he is the type of forward coaches appreciate. Holmstrom plays a cautious, consistent game and doesn’t take many risks or create numerous opportunities for his teammates. That said, he’s a reliable finisher when chances arise and is a strong enough forechecker to be disruptive.

Tsyplakov had a strong first season in the NHL and should have every chance to be the Islanders’ third-line center this year. His two-way game suits the role, and his ability to drive play could eventually help him move into the top six if he continues to adapt to the North American style of play. There’s a lot to like about the 27-year-old’s game, especially if he can improve his finishing and tidy up his penalty habits, as he took far too many penalties. His two-year deal offers plenty of value, and he could be a key contributor for the Islanders throughout the contract.

Departures

D Samuel Bolduc (signed with Los Angeles, one year, $775K)*
F Cal Clutterbuck (retired)
D Noah Dobson (traded to Montreal)
F Hudson Fasching (signed with Columbus, one year $775K)*
D Grant Hutton (unsigned UFA)
F Fredrik Karlström (signed in SHL)
F Matt Martin (retired)
D Mike Reilly (signed with Carolina, one year, $1.1MM)
G Jakub Skarek (signed with San Jose, one year $775)

*-denotes two-way contract

The Islanders created a significant gap in their lineup when they traded Dobson to the Canadiens. Still, they were in a position to do so after winning the draft lottery and selecting Schaefer first overall. Obviously, his development and play this season will determine how much they’ll miss Dobson, but the Islanders seem confident that he can help fill some of the void the trade left.

Outside of Dobson, the Islanders didn’t lose much from their lineup this summer. Clutterbuck and Martin’s retirements open up some roster spots on the fourth line for some of New York’s prospects to compete for, while Reilly had become an afterthought on the Islanders’ backend and didn’t play much last season, dressing in just 18 games.

Some leadership will be lost with Clutterbuck and Martin leaving, but Martin stayed with the franchise in other roles, and the Islanders have plenty of other veterans who can step up and serve as voices in the dressing room.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Islanders are unexpectedly close to the NHL salary cap, with only $1.625MM remaining and one spot open on the 23-man roster, which will likely go to Schaefer. This leaves them little room to manoeuvre if they face injuries like last season or want to make significant changes during the season. It seems the Islanders are taking a wait-and-see approach before deciding on their retooling strategy, and with limited flexibility, that probably makes the most sense.

Key Questions

Will Schaefer be ready to make an impact in the NHL this season?

This will be an interesting question to see answers to eventually. Not every first overall pick is ready to play in the NHL right away. Many are, but defensemen tend to take longer to develop, and the Islanders might not want to push Schaefer too hard, too quickly. That said, the Islanders didn’t make any active moves to shield him in the lineup, which suggests they believe he’s ready to make an impact this year. The difference between him being prepared or being sent back down could make or break the Islanders’ season, which will put some severe pressure on the rookie.

Can they improve their special teams?

Last year, the Islanders ranked second-worst in the NHL for both power play and penalty kill. If they had improved even slightly in either area, their season could have been very different. Moving to this year, all eyes are on the team to see if they can boost their special teams. New York made significant changes behind the bench by bringing in Ray Bennett, who was the Colorado Avalanche’s power-play coach, along with former NHL defenseman Bob Boughner, who was the Detroit Red Wings’ penalty kill coach. The personnel on the ice will also shift, with Dobson gone, but newcomers Schaefer and Drouin could both see time on the man advantage and provide a boost. Drouin has consistently scored double-digit points with the man advantage in his career, and his passing and playmaking should be a welcome addition to the Islanders’ power play unit.

What’s the goalie situation & depth behind Ilya Sorokin?

When Sorokin is playing at his best, he ranks among the top five goaltenders in the NHL. Last season, he wasn’t at his best but was far from being the main reason the Islanders struggled. Sorokin remained consistent even as the team around him faced significant injuries, including his backup Varlamov, who played only ten games last year and wasn’t near his usual level. The 37-year-old Varlamov has dealt with hip issues before, but is now recovering from knee surgery and reportedly isn’t close to returning to practice with the team. This makes signing Rittich a necessary insurance policy, as he could take over as the regular-season backup if Varlamov stays out for an extended period.

Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Assessing This Season’s Goaltending Market

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The goaltending market this summer was unusual, as there were very few available NHL-caliber netminders. The typical backup goalie carousel kept turning, but teams seeking starting netminders didn’t have many options. That’s not to say teams didn’t make moves; Anaheim and Detroit finally completed a long-anticipated trade involving John Gibson, and Pittsburgh sent Alex Nedeljkovic to the San Jose Sharks. Goaltending is almost always an interesting position, and as the season progresses, that interest only grows—especially among ambitious teams vying for a deep playoff run that may lack the netminding to get there. There’s also the added concern among general managers about mid-season goaltending trades, which reflects the volatility of the position. Several teams could benefit from an upgrade in net, yet there aren’t many options available on the trade market. So, the questions remain: who needs a goalie, and who can they target?

You can’t start an article about goaltending without mentioning the Edmonton Oilers, who have experienced instability between the pipes for much of Connor McDavid’s time with the team. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard haven’t been terrible for the Oilers, but they’ve been perfectly average when you analyze their numbers closely. During the 2023-24 season, both Pickard and Skinner performed slightly above average in goals saved above expected (according to MoneyPuck), while last season they were a bit below average in both the regular season and playoffs. Skinner’s goals saved above expected were exactly 0.0 in the playoffs, which is acceptable, but when Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky posts a +11.9, it makes a significant difference.

The Carolina Hurricanes could also benefit from upgrading their goaltending, but their goaltending hasn’t been bad enough to cost them a series. Carolina has adequate goaltending from Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov, who both performed above average during the regular season by posting positive goals saved above expected. Still, their save percentages fell below the .900 mark in the playoffs when Andersen was average, and Kochetkov struggled, posting a .855 SV% and a 3.60 GAA in four games. The issue for Carolina isn’t that they’ve experienced poor goaltending in the playoffs; it’s that their goalies haven’t been able to steal a series for them, which could be part of the reason they keep faltering in the Conference Finals.

Finally, we have the Philadelphia Flyers, a team that has been searching for its current (and future) goaltender for about 25 years. The Flyers’ goaltending hasn’t enjoyed much stability over the past two decades, aside from a few runs by various journeymen netminders. Last year, the Flyers posted the worst team save percentage in the NHL at .879 and are hoping that the addition of backup Dan Vladar can help turn things around, along with Samuel Ersson, who faced a lot last season and ended up with a -19.9 goals saved above expected (according to MoneyPuck). The Flyers aren’t quite ready to come out of a rebuild just yet, but a dependable starting netminder should be on their radar if they want to turn things around and start competing quickly.

With Edmonton, Carolina, and Philadelphia all needing goaltending upgrades, where can they realistically turn to make a move? That’s the challenge for these teams because there isn’t much of a trade market out there for goalies who could be considered upgrades, except for Philadelphia, where there are probably a few options. Carolina and Edmonton are both likely feeling the pressure to improve their goaltending after their recent playoff runs came to an end. While Edmonton would need to work some salary cap magic to upgrade in net, Carolina has plenty of space to make an addition and could do so at any point this season. So, what options are available to them?

The brief answer is that not much is available, and the available goaltenders come with significant risks, along with some potential benefits. The first goalie to consider is Elvis Merzļikins of the Columbus Blue Jackets. The 31-year-old was once a promising young starter but hasn’t been dependable for several years now and was especially poor last season. He has faced numerous tragedies in Columbus, which have undoubtedly affected him over the past few years. Last year, the Riga, Latvia native played 53 games and posted a -8.2 goals saved above expected, along with a .892 SV% and a 3.18 GAA. Simply put, Merzlikins was outperformed by his peers and wasn’t reliable for the Blue Jackets. Given his age and contract situation (two years left at $5.4MM per season), he probably isn’t an ideal choice for Edmonton, Carolina, or Philadelphia.

Tristan Jarry could have been claimed by any team last season for free after he was placed on waivers by the Pittsburgh Penguins. No team took a chance on the 30-year-old, and now he is back in Pittsburgh, aiming to re-establish himself as a full-time starter. There is no doubt about his talent — he is a highly skilled goaltender, but he has a history of falling apart at the worst possible moments. This has been a criticism of Jarry for years, and one reason he re-signed with the Penguins in 2023 is that neither team found a better fit, making it the best option for both sides. Ultimately, Jarry’s performance over the last two years has been underwhelming, and he may need a fresh start. Edmonton and Carolina should not be the teams to offer it. They are too close to contending for a Stanley Cup, and Jarry has shown throughout his career that he isn’t the guy to have in net when the games matter most.

Now, on the opposite end of the spectrum is arguably one of the most clutch goaltenders in today’s NHL, Jordan Binnington of the St. Louis Blues. Binnington demonstrated in the 4-Nations Face-Off that he can still come through in big moments and shouldn’t be dismissed yet. The former Stanley Cup champion posted decent numbers last season in 56 games, recording a +5.6 goals saved above expected (according to MoneyPuck), along with a .900 SV% and a 2.69 GAA. At 32 years old, Binnington still has a few productive seasons in him and could be the goalie to backstop a team like Carolina or Edmonton to a Stanley Cup. Binnington was taken off the trade market last season when St. Louis entered the playoff hunt, but could be reinserted if the Blues start slowly.

Finally, we come to a dark horse option: Joonas Korpisalo. Korpisalo was signed as a free agent by the Ottawa Senators two years ago to be a starter, but was traded and relegated to backup last year. His cap hit is $3MM for the next three seasons, which should not be a significant obstacle to move, but the question of whether he can be a dependable starter remains substantial. Korpisalo had periods in Columbus and Los Angeles where he appeared to be a reliable NHL starter, but his time in Ottawa was disappointing. He did bounce back with Boston last year but still posted below-average numbers in 27 games, with a -1.7 goals saved above expected and a .893 SV%. The cost to acquire him would be low, and he might not be a bad risk for Edmonton or Carolina to try alongside one of their existing netminders as part of a platoon. However, he should not be acquired to be the primary goaltender for a Stanley Cup contender.

Another option for teams is free agent Carter Hart, who is eligible to return on December 1st. Hart has stated he won’t return to Philadelphia and would prefer to sign with an American team, which likely rules out the Oilers and Flyers but still leaves open the possibility of going to Carolina if they offer him a contract.

Midseason goaltender trades aren’t common, but they do happen and sometimes work out. Colorado made two goaltending swaps last season, and aside from a forgettable Game 7 third period, they were likely pleased with the results of those moves. It will be interesting to see if Carolina, Edmonton, and Philadelphia decide to make a goaltending swap midseason to improve their chances of reaching their goals.

Photos by Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Assessing The Stars’ Contention Timeline

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The Stars start the 2025-26 season as one of the top Stanley Cup contenders, featuring a strong core that still includes Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Jake Oettinger, Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen, and Mikko Rantanen. This group has several top scorers in their prime and a goaltender ready to lead the crease for years to come. The Stars faced significant salary cap pressures this summer but mostly managed to navigate them, re-signing their key UFAs for another push. Although this summer went pretty well, salary cap concerns will likely continue to pose challenges each year, raising the question: How much longer can the Stars remain contenders for the Stanley Cup?

This year will be interesting for the Stars as they manage injuries and call-ups, given they have just over $400K in salary cap space (per PuckPedia). However, next summer, they will have nearly $28MM available with 15 players already signed. That figure suggests an opportunity for Dallas to strengthen their lineup, but a closer look at its RFAs and potential issues begins to emerge. Forwards Robertson and Mavrik Bourque are RFAs, as are Thomas Harley and Nils Lundkvist on defense. Jamie Benn is a UFA, but that shouldn’t be a significant salary to absorb even if he remains productive.

Robertson’s contract could be the most important extension for the team if he signs with Dallas at all. The 26-year-old was linked to trade rumors this summer, and since he’s only two years away from becoming a UFA, Dallas faces a tough choice. Evolving Hockey estimates that if Robertson had been an RFA this summer, his market value with the Stars would be an eight-year deal worth $10.9MM annually. If he signs with another team, that drops to $10.5MM over seven years. AFP Analytics is even more ambitious with its estimate, projecting an $11.54MM AAV on a long-term deal. There’s a chance Robertson might have a tough season, which could lower his value. But it could also go the other way, raising it. Last year, Robertson scored 35 goals and 80 points in 82 games, but he’s only two years removed from a 109-point season and will be eager to reach those offensive numbers again. If he does, that $28MM in cap space next summer will quickly seem very small.

Now, aside from Robertson, the other significant looming extension is Harley’s, and it could surpass Robertson’s depending on each player’s season. AFP Analytics projects an eight-year deal at $10.75MM annually if Harley commits long-term, which would put Dallas at around $21MM for both players, roughly $7MM under the 2026-27 salary cap, assuming no other moves are made before then.

Here’s more bad news if you’re a Stars fan. Besides being capped out, there isn’t much help coming through prospects. Dallas’s system is ranked 31st in the NHL by Scott Wheeler of The Athletic after Bourque and Logan Stankoven moved up to the NHL (with Stankoven then being dealt to the Hurricanes). It’s a 10-place drop for the Stars, highlighting a significant problem in their Stanley Cup pursuit—they’ve traded away many picks and prospects. That’s okay when you’re a contender; in fact, you should do that. But you can’t keep doing it forever, and sooner or later, you run out of pieces in the cupboard. That’s precisely what has happened to Dallas.

Now, for the final bit of bad news. Dallas also lacks significant draft pick capital. They have no first-round pick in 2026 or 2028 and are missing their second-rounder in 2028 (per PuckPedia). Again, it’s not a huge deal if you win, but as you get closer to the final stages of your contention window, it becomes tougher to compete without the tools to improve your team.

A year from now, this could all be something to look back on and laugh if Dallas wins the 2026 Stanley Cup. However, if they don’t, the Stars may start to resemble another team from the past, one with a wealth of offensive stars and solid goaltending. Some might feel it’s too soon in Dallas’s journey to say this, and maybe it is. But if the Stars aren’t successful this season in their quest for a championship, they could dangerously mirror the San Jose Sharks from the 2000s and 2010s — a team that could win a round or two regularly, had plenty of offensive talent, but couldn’t seal the deal, leading to a painful rebuild that they are hoping to soon emerge from.

Despite the negative tone of the article, the Stars aren’t finished yet and should be able to compete for the next two to three years while their core remains in their prime. The favourable tax situation, along with great weather and a terrific team, should continue to attract free agents willing to accept less money than they might elsewhere, and could also motivate some of the Stars’ current players to take a pay cut to stay on a competitive team in Dallas.

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What Can The Penguins Do With Their Other Veteran Forwards?

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The Penguins have a few productive forwards they might trade in the coming months. Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell both had excellent seasons last year playing alongside Sidney Crosby, and the Penguins probably want to sell high on them. They haven’t been able to do so yet, though, and the Pens have several veteran forwards they definitely want to move — Kevin Hayes, Noel Acciari, and Danton Heinen. But can they even move three players who don’t seem to be part of their future and might not be good enough to contribute now?

To be fair to Hayes, Acciari, and Heinen, the Penguins are unexpectedly deep at forward as they begin training camp. Pittsburgh has about 20 forwards who could make the lineup out of training camp, which makes things tricky for the trio of veterans. The team has promised to go with a younger roster this year, and while they’d likely prefer to move those three along with Rust and Rakell, they can’t trade everyone. It’s unlikely they can move Hayes, Acciari, and Heinen at all – even as pending UFAs.

Hayes was acquired last summer from the Blues along with a second-round pick in what was clearly a salary dump. Hayes remains a useful player in a limited role, but he doesn’t skate well, doesn’t hit, and lacks the puck skills he had in his prime. It also doesn’t help that he was injured at the beginning of training camp and will miss some time.

He could be moved in a deadline trade to a team looking for a depth veteran, but for now, the Penguins need to find a role for him when he returns. Hayes is set to count over $3.57MM against the Pittsburgh cap in the final year of a seven-year, $50MM contract he signed with the Flyers in the summer of 2019. Still, he is the least likely of the three to be moved off the roster because of his versatility. Hayes still has value on the power play and can contribute some offense to the bottom six if he manages to find a role among all the young players competing for an NHL spot.

Acciari was the most physical of the Penguins’ forwards last season, which doesn’t say much considering that Pittsburgh has been a light-hitting team for years. He also led the Penguins forwards in blocks. Acciari plays hard and is a team-first guy who serves as a good leader for some of the younger forwards seeking bottom-six minutes. Acciari is a solid pro and provides Pittsburgh with depth at center, but if some of the team’s prospects have strong camps, he could be left behind.

Then there’s Heinen, who was a throw-in last year when the Penguins traded defenseman Marcus Pettersson to the Vancouver Canucks. Heinen and his $2.25MM salary were included in the deal mainly to make the money work from Vancouver’s side. Heinen is an NHL player capable of playing across the lineup, but he doesn’t produce much with the ice time he receives, though he’s a decent forechecker and can kill penalties. At 30, Heinen isn’t expected to be part of Pittsburgh’s future, but if he makes the team and chips in some depth points, he could become a trade candidate at the deadline. That’s probably the best-case scenario for Heinen and the Penguins, as he’s the most likely of the trio of veterans to be waived and sent down to the AHL.

There is another option the Penguins can consider, which largely depends on what happens with Rust and Rakell. If the Penguins trade either of them for future assets, they could retain Heinen, Hayes, and Acciari and assign them to roles that best match their skills. All three are unrestricted free agents at the end of the season, and if Pittsburgh truly plans to rebuild, as they claim, it would be wise to boost the value of these veterans to trade them at the Trade Deadline for better assets. In the worst case, if they perform poorly and Pittsburgh can’t move them, they could let them all leave through free agency, move forward next season, and use nearly $8MM in freed-up cap space to sign other players.

In any case, that last option only makes sense if the Penguins trade Rust, Rakell, or both. Otherwise, the Penguins should simply put their best 12 or 13 forwards on the ice and healthy scratch or waive the rest, even if they are overpriced veterans with versatility still in their game.

Pittsburgh is an oddly constructed team, as they are rebuilding and want to go young, yet they remain the oldest team in the NHL. They probably will be bad, but have some good veterans and some promising youngsters. As Josh Yohe of The Athletic often says, “The Penguins are never boring,” and they certainly won’t be this season.

Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Who Will Be The NHL’s First $20MM Player?

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After Kirill Kaprizov reportedly declined an offer of $16MM a season on a long-term deal, fans across the NHL discussed who would be the first player in NHL history to earn $20MM annually on a contract. The NHL’s revenue is increasing rapidly, thanks to rising television income, betting revenue, and overall global expansion, all pushing hockey-related revenue higher. With this growth, teams are more than willing to pay their star players, who drive much of the growth teams are seeing in local ticket sales, sponsorships, and, most importantly, the game on the ice.

With rising revenues, fans are curious about what kind of AAV Connor McDavid could secure if he chooses to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. McDavid will be a free agent on July 1st next year, although he might not be the first to reach that milestone, even though he will be eligible to sign a deal exceeding that figure.

With the NHL salary cap rising to $104MM for the 2026-27 season, McDavid could sign a deal worth 20% of the total cap, which would amount to $20.8MM annually. However, based on his previous contract, it seems unlikely McDavid would do that, as it would leave the Oilers even more constrained by the cap than they already are. Earlier this summer, it was reported that McDavid would sign an extension of unspecified length, with an AAV of around $16MM. This would be similar to McDavid’s previous extension, signed in 2017 for $12.5MM per season, which was 15.72% of the salary cap at that time. If that $16MM AAV applies to McDavid’s next contract, it would represent roughly the same percentage of the salary cap ceiling as his 2017 extension.

Some folks in hockey circles argue that McDavid should be the first player to surpass the $20MM mark, and they might be right. However, it would be tough to build a team if he consumes that much of the salary cap. People used to argue the same whenever Sidney Crosby accepted less money than he was worth, but Crosby’s three Stanley Cup wins likely justified the money he left on the table. McDavid is an interesting case because he already left money on the table last time and has no championships to show for it. He may be willing to do it again as he nears his 30s, knowing that many of the game’s greatest players—like Crosby, Mario Lemieux, Wayne Gretzky, and Jaromir Jagr—never won a Stanley Cup after turning 30. McDavid may not be able to carry flawed teams to the Stanley Cup Finals if he’s in his 30s and taking up 20% of the salary cap, and that will have to influence his decision on his next contract.

The next batch of potential $20MM players expected to hit the free agent market next July includes the aforementioned McDavid & Kaprizov, as well as Jack Eichel. This occurs during a period when the NHL salary cap is set to rise by nearly 30% over three years. While this is excellent news for these forwards, it likely won’t come with a $20MM AAV. Kaprizov is reportedly trying to get as close as possible to that figure after rejecting a long-term deal worth $16MM per season. Although high, that number is expected to become typical among the NHL’s top players, with many stars poised to sign deals above $15MM annually.

Eichel has developed into a top-line, two-way center with high-end offensive skills but also elite defensive metrics. He is the most complete player outside of McDavid who could be available next summer, but it is expected that he will sign a long-term extension in Vegas soon, which should be around $13MM-$14MM annually.

What about the summer of 2027? Are there any potential candidates to earn $20MM annually? The short answer is one, possibly two: Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar and Vancouver Canucks defender Quinn Hughes. Makar has been a Norris Trophy finalist for five consecutive seasons and is a two-time winner of the award. He has exceeded 80 points in three of his last four seasons and 90 points in each of the previous two seasons. He is an offensive powerhouse that any team in the league would want, and with a $113.5MM salary cap forecast for the 2027-28 season, he might receive a $20MM offer.

Hughes is also a former Norris Trophy winner, securing the award during the 2023-24 season. He was a finalist last season but doesn’t have the same résumé as Makar and is therefore less likely than him to reach the $20MM mark. Two more seasons of Norris-calibre play would go a long way toward securing that kind of money on a long-term deal, but at this stage, he would be a bit of a long shot to hit $20MM annually.

Auston Matthews is another possible candidate to be the first player to earn $20MM annually, but he faces several hurdles. For one, someone might have signed an extension before Matthews became a free agent. Additionally, Matthews will be 31 when his next contract begins, and it’s uncertain what his game will look like then. There’s also a chance that Matthews’ performance could decline in the coming years, and he may not be able to produce the same numbers he’s used to. Time is working against Matthews in this scenario, and given all of this, he’s probably not going to be the first player to reach $20MM annually.

Finally, some of the top young draft picks have entered the NHL. Connor Bedard is a year away from becoming an RFA, and his performance this upcoming season could reveal a lot about the extension he signs, if he doesn’t sign one before the season begins. If he signs now, he’d likely secure a deal around $10MM annually. However, if he erupts into a 100+ point player, as many expect, he might push closer to a $12MM to $15MM long-term deal. In any case, he isn’t going to sign for $20MM this time, and even if he takes a two- or three-year bridge deal, he probably won’t be the first player to hit that $20MM milestone.

Now that we’ve discussed some of the players who could be the first, we must consider whether it will happen anytime soon. The NHL has a culture of spreading money across the roster, and few teams are willing to go top-heavy because it affects their depth. The Toronto Maple Leafs tried the top-heavy approach for the past decade, and it hasn’t worked out as they hoped. Even Chicago had to adopt it eventually, with Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews earning $10.5MM annually, marking the start of the end for their mini-dynasty. Teams are also reluctant to allocate 20% of their salary cap to a single player, which suggests we might need a much higher cap before a player reaches $20MM annually.

It’s going to be fascinating to see how this develops. The NHL has never fully embraced the supermax era that other leagues have adopted, and NHL players have seldom sought the maximum salary for various reasons. The NHL was also uniquely positioned because its top star for 20 years, Crosby, never signed a market-value contract, which makes one wonder if that influenced other stars to accept lower numbers. Crosby is obviously nearing the end of his career and is no longer the top player in the league, opening the door for top talents to claim every dollar they can get. Time will tell if they do.

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The Risk And Reward Of Signing Evgeny Kuznetsov

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In each NHL offseason, certain players hit the free agent market, sparking debate about the risks and rewards of signing them. The potential rewards often outweigh the risks, and these players usually find opportunities in the NHL, but some do fall by the wayside. This summer, a few names fit the bill, including former Washington Capitals forward Evgeny Kuznetsov, who is reportedly looking to return to an NHL lineup after playing in the KHL last year.

Kuznetsov can best be described as a reclamation project at this point in his career. The 33-year-old is highly talented and has posted strong results in the NHL throughout his career; however, he has often been inconsistent, which is precisely why he finds himself in the current position he is in a few weeks before NHL training camps are set to open. As for the risks and rewards of signing Kuznetsov, they look like this.

We’ll start with the reward side of the argument. Kuznetsov has an elite skill set; he has terrific hands (evidenced by his slow-motion shootout goals), is an excellent playmaker, and could pass with the best of them during his prime. These skills alone would make almost any player desirable, and they are the reason that Kuznetsov stayed in the NHL for as long as he did despite the warts in his game. Kuznetsov had 25 assists in 39 KHL games last season, which demonstrates that he still possesses a playmaking vision and could be a valuable part of a team’s top-nine forward group if placed in the right environment.

The next positive aspect of signing Kuznetsov is that he has been excellent in the Stanley Cup playoffs throughout his career. He was a key part of Washington’s 2018 Stanley Cup Championship, leading the playoffs in points that season. Even his most recent NHL postseason saw him perform well, with four goals and two assists in 10 games, which ultimately was his last appearance in an NHL lineup. Kuznetsov has shown in the past that he can elevate his game when the stakes are highest, which could be a factor teams consider when deciding whether to sign him.

Then there’s the cost, which will be almost nothing. In real dollar terms, the NHL league minimum of $775K is significant; however, that’s the bare minimum Kuznetsov can earn in the NHL and likely what he will get when he finally signs (if he secures a one-way NHL deal). Teams will be interested in a player they can acquire without giving up an asset (other than cap space), and even if things go south for Kuznetsov, he could easily be waived and sent to the minors with his entire cap hit buried or perhaps agree to a mutual termination if things don’t work out. Either way, it would cost almost nothing to sign him and could reward a team with a valuable player at a low cost.

Lastly, on the reward side, there is the potential that a change of scenery move could unlock. Many players in NHL history have struggled with one team, then moved to a new market and rediscovered their game. This can happen for many reasons, but ultimately, one of the main reasons these moves are successful is if the player is motivated to revive their career. For Kuznetsov, the team that signs him will likely be giving him his last NHL shot, which means the stakes are high for him, and he should have plenty of motivation to give his best effort. It also means that whatever team signs Kuznetsov, they could see a significant return on a player who is a relatively small gamble.

Let’s examine the risks now associated with signing a player like Kuznetsov. Firstly, his production has fallen sharply in recent seasons, dropping to a near career-low 24 points in 63 games during the 2023-24 season. It wasn’t just the offense that dried up; it was Kuznetsov’s overall impact in his final two NHL seasons. Kuznetsov was never considered an analytical darling, but he became one of the most negative impact play-drivers in the NHL during those last two seasons. This decline in offensive output highlighted Kuznetsov’s overall game, which was never exceptional but was mainly hidden by his scoring.

Next up on the risk side is Kuznetsov’s tendency to be streaky. Some might call it apathy or being disengaged, but the fact is that any NHL team that hopes to win a Stanley Cup doesn’t want to bring in a passenger who plays when he feels like it. That’s not to say that is what Kuznetsov will do, but that is a reputation he does have, and teams will be looking for players who buy in and display a strong work ethic.

The reality of Kuznetsov’s age also comes into play, as there’s no way to sugarcoat the truth about hockey players on the wrong side of 30. Skills tend to decline, especially conditioning and speed, which usually drop faster than a player’s ability to control the puck. The concerning part for Kuznetsov is that managing the puck was one of the few things he did well in 2023-24, but with his lack of speed, his CF% took a nosedive, dropping to just 47% in that season.

Finally, there is the locker room fit. Teams are always concerned about bringing in a personality that doesn’t align with the team’s culture, and Kuznetsov could be a potential mismatch. Creating additional off-ice distractions is never ideal for NHL teams, which is why players like Phil Kessel and Calvin de Haan often see their final runs through free agency end in disappointment. An off-ice distraction will generally be tolerated if a player is performing at a high level. Still, as soon as their results slip, off-ice issues tend to be addressed more seriously.

In the end, whichever NHL team signs Kuznetsov (if any do) will get a player on a cheap league minimum contract, who has some potential to make an offensive impact and could produce some decent point totals. Alternatively, they might get a player who is inconsistent, unmotivated, and taking up a roster spot from someone else. Either way, Kuznetsov will be an intriguing player to watch in the near future.

Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

What The Senators Can Learn From Past Champions’ Development Model

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The Senators qualified for the playoffs last season for the first time since the 2016-17 season. Their young core finally turned the corner and took their first significant step in a rebuild that previously felt like it was skidding off the tracks. They lost to the Maple Leafs in six games, but it has generated a sense of optimism in Canada’s capital. Ottawa has a promising young core led by captain Brady Tkachuk, most of the group is signed to reasonable long-term deals, the new ownership group is stable, and the team is inching closer to securing a new downtown arena. Everything looks promising for the Senators right now, but they are about to face the most challenging phase of their rebuild as they aim to make the next leap and become a Stanley Cup contender. The Senators have made several missteps along the way, and they would do well to learn from franchises that have already achieved what Ottawa is striving for.

There are many lessons the Senators can learn from the teams that achieved success, and the same applies to those that failed in their rebuilds. When it comes to success stories, look no further than the reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers and their intrastate rival Tampa Bay Lightning, who have accounted for four of the last six champions, as well as the Colorado Avalanche, who won the title in 2022, and the Pittsburgh Penguins, the first team in the salary cap era to win back-to-back Stanley Cups. All of these teams had promising cores before winning titles, and they all faced heartbreaking moments on their way to glory. While their stories share similar elements, each franchise had a different blueprint for building Stanley Cup-caliber rosters, and these are frameworks Ottawa could consider as it aims to take the next step.

Regarding a comparison between Ottawa’s roster and those four mentioned clubs, there is one main difference. Ottawa has secured its young core of top picks long-term (Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot), just as Pittsburgh, Colorado, Tampa Bay, and Florida have. Some might dismiss this comparison, arguing that Ottawa doesn’t share the same reputation as those teams. However, it wasn’t that long ago that Florida was considered an afterthought, and both Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay faced challenges at the bottom of the standings before they built their teams around top picks.

What Ottawa can examine is how those four teams built their championship squads without relying solely on making top draft picks. Each team clearly demonstrates the importance of selecting the top picks correctly, but beyond that, they each employed a unique strategy to develop their rosters around those key players.

For Tampa Bay, its elite scouting allowed it to draft top players outside of the first round. The Lightning selected Brayden Point in the third round in 2014, Nikita Kucherov in the second round in 2011, and Anthony Cirelli in the third round in 2015. These players supported top picks Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman and helped propel Tampa Bay to three straight Stanley Cup Finals and two championships. Former Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman adopted a tactic from the 1990s Detroit Red Wings teams by delaying the development of their prospects, choosing to let them develop longer in the AHL rather than rushing them to the NHL.

Florida didn’t draft as well as the Lightning but chose instead to rely on trades to build around their top picks, bringing in Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Sam Reinhart in major moves that strengthened Aaron Ekblad and Aleksander Barkov. The Tkachuk trade, in particular, was a significant gamble by general manager Bill Zito, and it was not well-received at the time it was made. However, it’s been a crucial move for Florida, and it ended up being the one that truly pushed them over the line. The Panthers also used free agency and waivers to bolster their team, signing Carter Verhaeghe and Sergei Bobrovsky as UFAs and acquiring Gustav Forsling off waivers. The Bobrovsky signing was widely criticized when it happened, but it has again panned out as a gamble worth taking.

The Penguins, much like the Panthers, used a variety of tools to build their championship rosters after years of poor drafting, bad trades, and signings for depth. By the time Jim Rutherford took over the Penguins in 2014, most people felt that Pittsburgh had wasted the primes of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, and in 2015, another first-round exit made many believe the critics were right. The Penguins only had one championship with their core, and calls from fans were to trade Malkin and defenseman Kris Letang. However, Rutherford chose a different path, bringing in star scoring winger Phil Kessel in a significant trade with the Maple Leafs that could have ended in disaster. However, it didn’t, and Rutherford continued to make moves, adding forwards Nick Bonino and Carl Hagelin, as well as defensemen Trevor Daley and Justin Schultz. These moves, along with some strong late picks from former GM Ray Shero (Bryan Rust and Matt Murray), set the Penguins up for a two-year run of excellence.

All of these stories raise several questions for the Senators. When is the right time to be patient versus aggressive? When should they be ruthless or show loyalty? There is no single way to succeed, but all of Colorado, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Florida have identified a clear vision and are committed to it. Tampa Bay was patient and spent a decade building the foundation for an incredible run of success. Colorado was patient as well, choosing to wait for the right moment to make trades that would boost their stars (Devon Toews).

Pittsburgh and Florida, on the other hand, were proactive in their effort to win now. There were no half measures. Rutherford would quickly correct a mistake in roster assessment for the Penguins if he felt it wasn’t a fit. By the end of his tenure, that kind of behaviour became comical, but between 2015 and 2017, it was like lightning in a bottle.

For Florida, Zito and his team have been aggressive yet precise, acquiring players who have struggled elsewhere and fitting them into the Panthers’ lineup where they can succeed. Forsling and Verhague were both traded between several teams before ending up in Florida. Now, they are vital pieces of a potential dynasty.

Ottawa is at a crossroads and must decide on its next step. Should they be patient with their prospects in Belleville, or is that not the best approach given their weak farm system? This could mean trading young players and draft picks to secure immediate help. Does GM Steve Staios have the courage for a bold move? It’s possible, especially since he recently traded Josh Norris for Dylan Cozens at the NHL Trade Deadline, but he needs to be careful not to compromise too much of the team’s identity.

Ottawa also needs to improve the depth of its lineup. Their bottom six haven’t been strong for a while, and there’s a lesson to learn from the teams that win titles. Florida’s bottom six is built for speed and toughness. Tampa Bay would find depth that’s tailored for the playoffs, while the Penguins’ teams rolled four lines with speed that could dominate teams through an aggressive forecheck on every shift.

While the Senators need to improve their team depth, they must be careful with their spending in free agency, as many of their recent signings have not worked out. The David Perron signing last summer wasn’t successful (two years, $8MM), nor was the Joonas Korpisalo signing the previous summer. The Senators haven’t had much success with UFAs and need to be cautious with their secondary deals, as they will eventually need to sign Shane Pinto and avoid limiting their flexibility, which could quickly close their window to contend.

Ultimately, Ottawa doesn’t need to follow any single path listed above. The Senators can combine elements from each team’s approach and adapt them to their own journey. They can emulate Tampa Bay’s patience in development, while reflecting Pittsburgh’s commitment to their core identity and pursuing bold, fearless trades like the Panthers. There are many routes the Senators could take as they aim to progress, but the key will be committing to a clear strategy rather than just relying on talent to develop and improve naturally over time.

Photo by Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

Which Defensemen Should The Red Wings Target?

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The Detroit Red Wings haven’t reached the playoffs in nearly ten years and are at a pivotal point after a season of highs and lows last year. They remained relatively quiet this summer, but they did address some goaltending concerns by adding John Gibson. While he is expected to bring more stability in goal, Detroit still needs to strengthen other areas, especially defensively, where its core could benefit from an upgrade.

Ideally, the Red Wings would have already acquired a right-shot defenseman capable of playing in their top four and logging significant minutes while generating offense from the back end. Detroit already has Moritz Seider on the right side, but adding a veteran with some playoff experience could help their inexperienced star while adding a bit of leadership to a team that hasn’t experienced regular-season success in years. Detroit needs to balance veteran stability with the potential of its young players without blocking any of their development pathways. This challenging balancing act will affect all of the Red Wings’ future decisions and may have already influenced them this summer, as Detroit stayed relatively quiet.

Detroit did add a right-shot defender this summer by signing Jacob Bernard-Docker to a one-year deal worth $875K. Bernard-Docker was a first-round pick of the Ottawa Senators (chosen 26th overall in 2018), but he hasn’t yet proven himself as a regular NHL player. He isn’t the answer to Detroit’s top four concerns on the right side, and if he is put there, the team’s defense could run into serious problems next season. There’s nothing inherently wrong with using a player with Bernard-Docker’s skill set, but he isn’t what Detroit needs for their top two pairings.

The same can be said for another right-shot defender Detroit signed this summer, Travis Hamonic. At 35 years old, he didn’t look like an NHL defenseman last season and was a drag on anyone he paired with. Still, his signing shows Detroit’s desperation to add depth on their right side, which might be a futile effort at this point, considering they have a lot of below-replacement-level talent in the pipeline.

Unfortunately for them, an impact right-shot defender is one of the most complex player types to acquire in today’s NHL. Each year, teams overpay for righties – a pertinent case study being someone like Matt Dumba, who earned $7.5MM last summer on a two-year deal only to be traded away this summer with a sweetener.

Detroit has nearly $12MM in cap space available for the upcoming season, per PuckPedia. They also possess almost a full slate of draft picks for the next three seasons, except for their 2027 second-rounder, along with a top-five prospect pool, according to Scott Wheeler of The Athletic. They could easily target a player like Rasmus Andersson of the Calgary Flames, who is a realistic option and would provide the Red Wings with a smooth puck mover that could add a dynamic element to their defense.

Such a move involves significant risk, chiefly concerning Andersson’s contract situation. The 28-year-old has one year remaining on his deal and might be interested in exploring free agency. The Red Wings would likely want to negotiate an extension before completing a trade, which also carries risks given that Andersson is coming off a trying 2024-25 campaign in his own end and may not even want to entertain a long-term commitment to a team that’s not a surefire contender. While Andersson won’t suddenly turn Detroit into a Stanley Cup challenger, he could support their efforts to return to the playoffs.

If the Wings wanted to scout emerging talents, they could consider Brandt Clarke of the Los Angeles Kings or Bowen Byram of the Buffalo Sabres. It’s challenging to see Buffalo trading Byram within their division, but stranger things have happened. The perception of Byram is much more favorable than his on-ice impact. In other words, he has all the qualities you’d want in a top-four defenseman, but his actual results don’t match that. Byram has found it challenging to drive play independently, and given his market value, acquiring him might not be the best move for the Red Wings. Byram signed a two-year extension this summer at $6.5MM per season and will likely demand a higher price on a long-term deal, considering how he is perceived league-wide.

Clarke presents an interesting option, especially if he is to be acquired to bolster the top four. The 22-year-old was drafted eighth overall in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft and had a solid offensive season last year, with five goals and 28 assists in 78 games. While those stats are respectable for a player logging just over 16 minutes per night, they don’t tell the whole story. Clarke was a healthy scratch a few times last season and was heavily sheltered by the Kings. There’s no doubt about Clarke’s offensive talent, but his defensive play is definitely a concern. If Detroit were to acquire him and pair him with Simon Edvinsson, it could greatly benefit Clarke. However, that would mean pairing Ben Chiarot with Seider on the top pairing, which should be avoided. Putting Chiarot and Clarke together would likely be disastrous, exposing the challenges Detroit faces with its defensive core.

And then there’s Erik Karlsson of the Pittsburgh Penguins, who is very much available but would need to waive his no-move clause to be traded anywhere. Karlsson has been linked to the Red Wings recently, but it’s hard to gauge if he would want to move to the Motor City. However, he would bring offense to Detroit’s defense and could help ignite the attack.

But, with acquiring Karlsson, Detroit would face similar issues with Chiarot or Edvinsson. Bringing in Karlsson would make headlines, but it wouldn’t elevate Detroit into the top tier of NHL teams. Karlsson remains a household name and has a certain cachet, but he isn’t the three-time Norris Trophy winner he once was and is unlikely to revert to that peak of performance. He would improve Detroit’s scoring, potentially moving its offense towards the middle of the league. Still, the cost and the defensive issues caused by Karlsson’s aggressive style might outweigh the benefits, especially on a team with no high-end shutdown talent.

Finally, if Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman wants to focus on a defensive player, he could consider Connor Murphy of the Chicago Blackhawks. The 32-year-old offers little offensively, never surpassing 20 points in a season, but he plays a solid defensive game and could help stabilize a second pairing. Murphy isn’t going to generate plays, but he can handle tough matchups, block shots, and is generally effective in his own zone. His skill set might not be exactly what the Red Wings need on their backend, but they could do worse than him on the trade market.

None of these moves guarantees a win for Detroit, and each one involves considerable risk, but so does every trade. After missing the playoffs for nine consecutive seasons and having a cautious summer, Detroit may need to take a bold step to move forward. Of course, GM Steve Yzerman must weigh the cost of trading prospects or draft picks against the immediate benefits of boosting his defense. Whatever Yzerman decides, his next moves could shape the team’s future for years. He has options, but none are particularly ideal.

Photo by Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

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