Free Agent Focus: St. Louis Blues
Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the St. Louis Blues.
Key Restricted Free Agents
D Scott Perunovich – Set to turn 25 in August, Perunovich’s once promising career trajectory was severely impacted by extremely unfortunate injury luck. The left-shot blueliner underwent wrist surgery in March of last year and missed most of this past season after undergoing shoulder surgery in October. He also missed the entirety of the 2020-21 season due to another shoulder surgery.
A 2018 second-round pick, Perunovich had been ranked consistently among the Blues’ top prospects throughout his decorated NCAA career, a tenure at the University of Minnesota-Duluth that included back-to-back National Championships and a Hobey Baker award win.
The promise he showed in college has translated to the AHL, where he’s posted a 1.08 career points-per-game mark as a defenseman.
Unfortunately, though, that impressive scoring rate comes in just 42 career games, and that simple lack of playing time is the most serious obstacle he faces to receiving a significant raise from the $750k he earned this past season. He’s an undoubtedly talented player who smartly took the opportunity to get even more games under his belt by representing the United States at the IIHF World Championships last month, but he’ll need to prove he can stay healthy before he makes a dent in the Blues’ financial plans.
F Logan Brown – Another player who has shown promise but also seen injuries do significant damage to his development, Brown did not take the step forward in St. Louis that he likely hoped for when he received his change-of-scenery trade in 2021. The 2016 11th overall pick is a hulking six-foot-six center whose combination of size and skill has long tantalized scouts.
He’s more recently begun to put things together at the AHL level, scoring 19 points in 21 games for the Springfield Thunderbirds across two seasons but his NHL impact has remained marginal. He’s scored just 17 points in 69 games as a Blue and now at 25 years old, it’s possible St. Louis decides to cut bait rather than extend their hopes that he can develop into something more.
It’s also possible that the Blues opt to retain him at a cap hit similar to his $750k number from last season with the idea of him competing for an NHL spot in training camp and potentially taking on a more permanent role as a top-of-the-lineup player in Springfield.
Other RFAs: F Alexey Toropchenko, F Adam Gaudette, F Hugh McGing, D Tyler Tucker, D Dmitri Samorukov, D Brady Lyle
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Josh Leivo – 30-year-old Leivo set career highs in games played in the NHL this past season but unlike his fellow high-scoring 2021-22 Chicago Wolf, Stefan Noesen, Leivo didn’t reach a new stratosphere of offensive production in the NHL. Noesen, Leivo’s teammate on last season’s Calder Cup-winning AHL team, became a valuable secondary scorer for the Carolina Hurricanes and potted 13 goals and 36 points, as well as eight points in 15 playoff games.
Leivo, on the other hand, only managed four goals and 16 points in 51 games.
As a result, while Noesen took advantage of the opportunity his extremely productive 2021-22 AHL campaign afforded him at the next level, placing himself in a position to receive a significant pay raise, Leivo’s now in the spot where one has to wonder if he’s at his most valuable as a top-of-the-lineup AHL scorer.
That’s something the Blues will need to wrestle with, as there’s clearly some real talent that Leivo offers only he may not be best suited as an NHL regular.
In any case, Leivo’s season had its ups and downs but is unlikely to result in St. Louis struggling to find a way to afford to extend him so he can remain part of their organization.
G Thomas Greiss – While 22-year-old Joel Hofer struggled in two games with the Thunderbirds in the playoffs, he helped lead them to the 2021-22 Calder Cup Final (against Leivo’s Wolves!) and had a stellar 2022-23 regular season, posting a .921 save percentage across 47 games. He’ll turn 23 before the end of the month and per CapFriendly has one year remaining of waiver-exempt status.
So as he remains waiver-exempt for another year, it’s definitely possible the Blues choose to give Hofer one more year of seasoning in the NHL before he transitions to NHL duty in 2024-25. But with Vadim Zherenko poised to take on a larger role in Springfield and two other minor-league goalies under contract (Will Cranley and Colten Ellis) Hofer is more likely ticketed for NHL duty next fall.
That means that Greiss, now 37, is highly unlikely to return to St. Louis for another year as the backup to starter Jordan Binnington. The 368-game veteran’s .896 save percentage mirrored the .891 mark he posted last season with the Detroit Red Wings and means Greiss is now two full seasons removed from being an above-average backup goalie. There could still be some leaguewide interest in adding Greiss as an experienced and affordable backup option, but if that’s the case that interest is unlikely to come from the Blues.
F Matthew Highmore – Highmore, an undrafted 27-year-old forward took a big step forward at the AHL level this season, scoring 19 goals and 61 points for the Thunderbirds, a mark that placed him second in team scoring behind sniper Martin Frk. In addition to his exceptional AHL scoring numbers Highmore offers 139 games of NHL experience, and he could be one of the more in-demand AHL free agents, and as a result could earn a more lasting NHL opportunity for next season, similar to what Kiefer Sherwood got from the Nashville Predators this past season.
With Frk headed overseas, it’s possible the Blues prioritize re-signing Highmore to maintain some continuity at the top of their AHL lineup. Though it would be a mistake to not also note that other clubs looking to beef up their AHL lineups are likely to be after Highmore as well.
Other UFAs: F Tyler Pitlick, F Nathan Todd, F Luke Witkowski, D Steven Santini
Projected Cap Space
The Blues are projected to have around $7.5MM in available cap space by CapFriendly, a number that’s not exactly huge but also not going to be eaten into by any significant contract extensions for restricted free agents. GM Doug Armstrong could create some more space by moving out a pricey veteran defenseman such as Nick Leddy, Marco Scandella, or even Torey Krug, and such a trade would open up even more avenues for the Blues to add to their team. Regardless of what specifically the team does, they have a decent purse available to them to make additions, but without moving someone out they might not be able to shop at the top of the market.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Snapshots: Fantilli, Viel, Bayreuther
In any other year, a player like University of Michigan forward and Hobey Baker winner Adam Fantilli would be a near-guarantee to be the first overall pick at the draft. But this season happens to also feature generational talent Connor Bedard, and as a result, Fantilli is likely to find himself headed to the Anaheim Ducks rather than the Chicago Blackhawks. Whether Fantilli heads to Anaheim to play with their NHL team in the fall (or in the NHL with whatever non-Anaheim team drafts him, should something surprising happen on draft day) or chooses to return to college hockey for another year is still up in the air.
Fantilli himself addressed the topic in a draft diary posted to NHL.com, writing “I will wait until after the NHL Draft before making a decision on whether or not I will return to Michigan for 2023-24.” Fantilli, who scored a whopping 65 points in 36 games for the Wolverines, expressed disappointment at failing to win a National Championship at Michigan but stressed that his decision would be more “about development and being able to mature as a person” than any lingering desire to win a national title. It certainly seems as though Fantilli could hold his own in the NHL next year but it seems that with players such as 2022 third-overall pick Logan Cooley and 2021 first-overall pick Owen Power taking some extra time in college to develop, Fantilli may opt for that route himself as well.
Some other notes from across the NHL:
- Undrafted forward Jeffrey Viel, now 26, was slated to be a restricted free agent this offseason with a strong likelihood of continuing his run with the San Jose Sharks into a sixth season. Now, it seems his time with the organization that plucked him out of the QMJHL as an undrafted free agent will be coming to an end. Viel’s agent, Allain Roy, relayed to The Athletic’s Corey Masisiak that “Viel will enter the market on July 1 and look for a new opportunity.” (subscription link) Viel only played four NHL games this season and as a result, qualified for Group Six unrestricted free agency. A valued leader, Viel scored 15 goals and 31 points in the AHL this past season and should be of interest to other teams looking to beef up their AHL middle-six.
- Another player set to change teams this summer is defenseman Gavin Bayreuther of the Columbus Blue Jackets. The 29-year-old played in 94 games for Columbus over the past two seasons, seizing opportunities provided by the multitude of injuries that have hit the Blue Jackets’ defense in that span of time. But now that the team has added considerable talent to their blueline in recent days (through trades for Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson) they have quite the logjam on defense. Columbus has eight defensemen on one-way contracts at the moment and that doesn’t include David Jiricek, the 2022 sixth-overall pick who will likely play his way into NHL consideration quickly in the fall. As a result, The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline reports that “it seems a safe bet” that Bayreuther will hit the open market and move on from the club he’s been with for the past three seasons. (subscription link)
Draft Notes: Michkov, Canadiens, Hrabal
Despite the fact that there’s virtually no mystery as to who the Chicago Blackhawks will take with the first overall pick at the draft at the end of the month, this year’s event is shaping up to be one with quite a bit of intrigue. Teams behind the Blackhawks have to grapple with a significant dilemma: whether to take a leap of faith to draft Russian winger Matvei Michkov. Michkov is widely regarded to be in the conversation as the most talented player in the draft, and he scored 20 points in 27 games in the KHL after being loaned to HK Sochi, an incredibly productive rate for a draft-year player. But his contract situation with SKA St. Petersburg will keep him in the KHL for at least three years, and with the uncertainty regarding NHL-KHL relations, it’s fair to wonder whether Michkov is worth the risk when other talented players are on the board.
The Athletic’s Arpon Basu and Marc Antoine Godin report word from folks at the NHL’s scouting combine in Buffalo who say that Michkov “might be available outside the top-10.”(subscription link) This would mean that each of the teams inside the draft’s top-10 picks opted not to take the risk on Michkov, highlighting just how risky some front offices deem the selection. That being said, given how talented Michkov appears to be, it would also be no shock to see him go well inside the top-1o. But the bottom line based on this reporting is that while we have a very clear sense of where Connor Bedard will be headed, the landing spot of one of the other best talents in this class is anyone’s guess.
Some other notes about the 2023 draft, which will take place in Nashville on June 28th and 29th:
- Basu and Godin got the impression at the combine that it “doesn’t seem very likely” the Canadiens will draft Michkov with the number-five pick should he be on the board. Instead, they feel the team is giving serious consideration to two other top prospects with that pick: polished Austrian defenseman David Reinbacher and versatile American winger Ryan Leonard. Reinbacher is a valuable right-shot blueliner who impressed playing against men in Switzerland’s top pro league, while Leonard is a competitive winger who alongside fellow first-round talents Will Smith and Gabe Perreault shattered U.S. National Team Development Program scoring records.
- The Athletic’s Corey Masisiak reports that the San Jose Sharks have on multiple occasions during the season met with Omaha Lancers netminder Michael Hrabal via a team representative. (subscription link) Hrabal, who was measured at nearly six-foot-seven at the combine, is firmly in the mix to be the first goaltender selected at the draft, and it seems the Sharks could be eyeing him as a potential goalie of the future. The Sharks did not sign 2021 81st overall pick Benjamin Gaudreau to an entry-level contract and may enter this offseason with a priority placed on improving the quality of their goaltending prospect pipeline.
Free Agent Focus: Seattle Kraken
Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Seattle Kraken.
Key Restricted Free Agents
D Vince Dunn – Dunn, who will be 27 next season, is by a wide margin the most significant pending free agent the Kraken have on their roster.
The left-shot blueliner is set to receive a sizeable raise from the $4MM AAV he played this season on after scoring 14 goals and 64 points this past season, a total that tied him for tenth in the NHL in scoring by a defenseman.
Dunn has quickly emerged as a dominant force in transition and the type of blueliner that can make a significant impact in the offensive zone.
He’s not a sheltered, offense-only contributor either as he logged nearly 24 minutes per night for the Kraken, the highest average on his team. It seems as though it’s only a matter of time before Dunn becomes the highest-paid player on Seattle’s books.
F Daniel Sprong – While not quite to the same degree as Dunn, Sprong had an impressive breakout 2022-23 campaign. Despite averaging just 11:25 time on ice per night, Sprong finished his season with 21 goals and 46 points in 66 games, which is a 26-goal, 57-point 82-game pace. There aren’t many players who could manage those types of numbers with such little ice time, yet Sprong, owner of a lethal shot, managed to do exactly that.
A former top prospect of the Pittsburgh Penguins, it had been long believed that Sprong held some untapped offensive upside but until this year he had failed to show more than sporadic flashes of offensive brilliance. The question for the Kraken to answer, then, is whether they believe Sprong’s breakout is sustainable.
If they think he can repeat this performance as a productive bottom-sixer, he’ll easily earn a sizeable raise from his $750k AAV. But if Seattle is more uncertain about his future, perhaps weary to invest too greatly into a player with a track record of inconsistency (who didn’t have a good playoffs despite Seattle making it to the second round) then these negotiations could get dicey, especially since Sprong is arbitration-eligible.
D Will Borgen – Borgen took a major step forward in his career in 2022-23, playing in all 82 games for the Kraken as well as all 14 of their playoff contests. He was a steady presence on the Kraken’s second and third pairings who also pitched in on the team’s second-unit penalty kill, and his play this season likely merits a decent raise from the $900k he cost the team on his last deal.
Other RFAs: F Morgan Geekie, F Kole Lind, D Cale Fleury
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
D Carson Soucy – Operating in a similar role to Borgen, Soucy managed to play nearly all of the Kraken’s games this past season and averaged just over 16 minutes time on ice with nearly two minutes each night spent on the penalty kill.
His offensive production declined slightly (from 21 points in 64 games last season to 16 in 78 games this year) but overall his play remained steady. He was a dependable defensive defenseman and offers the type of size and muscle on the blueline that many teams covet.
The Kraken are likely to want to keep Soucy around to maintain the quality of their defense, but given how well he’s done in Seattle the team may have a tough time matching the outside offers that come his way.
With 2021 35th overall pick Ryker Evans a breakout star in his first AHL campaign (he has 19 points in 20 playoff games at the time of writing for the Coachella Valley Firebirds) and likely to be pushing for an NHL spot in training camp, perhaps the Kraken feel comfortable letting Soucy walk and opening the door for Evans to claim his vacated spot on the left side of the team’s defense.
G Martin Jones – 33-year-old netminder Martin Jones’ numbers weren’t much to write home about, with his .887 save percentage in 48 games an especially weak mark, he does have one number really working in his favor: 27. That’s the number of games Jones won for the Kraken, and he posted an overall 27-13-3 record. He gave Seattle enough to take home two points in the vast majority of the games he played, and in a backup role there’s a lot of value in that.
With Chris Driedger and Philipp Grubauer already on their books and Daccord also in the mix, it seems relatively unlikely that Seattle will opt to bring Jones back. But although his save percentage was quite poor, he did win far more often than he lost and therefore put forth a solid argument to receive a new contract similar to the $2MM one he received last summer.
G Joey Daccord – Like the aforementioned Evans, Daccord has played extremely well with AHL Coachella Valley and his current performance likely places him firmly in the NHL conversation heading into next season. He could possibly end this season as a Calder Cup-winning goalie and he has posted a .927 save percentage through 20 games for the Firebirds. He was solid in the regular season as well, and at 26 years old looks ready to take the next step and become an NHL backup.
Whether he takes that step in Seattle is an open question, as Driedger remains on the books at a $3.5MM cap hit next season and Grubauer firmly re-established himself in Seattle by leading the franchise to their first-ever playoff series win.
In any case, he looks to be this year’s Charlie Lindgren, as Lindgren placed himself in a similar circumstance a year ago via strong performances for the AHL’s Springfield Thunderbirds and that summer earned himself a $1.1MM AAV deal to become the backup for the Washington Capitals. Perhaps that’s what’s in store for Daccord should he hit the open market.
Other UFAs: F Ryan Donato, F Joonas Donskoi, F Jesper Froden, F John Hayden, F Austin Poganski, F Alex True, F Carsen Twarynski, D Gustav Olofsson, D Brogan Rafferty, G Christopher Gibson
Projected Cap Space
This is where Seattle are in decent shape. CapFriendly projects them to have over $20MM in cap space, though that figure will be eaten into considerably by an extension for Dunn. With significant dollars set to expire in the near future (Jordan Eberle has one year and $5.5MM left on his deal, and Alexander Wennberg has one year and $4.5MM left on his contract, to give two examples) the Kraken are in a prime position to invest significant dollars in their team this summer. So far they’ve opted to build a team that prioritizes balance and depth, but maybe the significant financial flexibility they have this summer will lead them to chase some stars, similar to what the Vegas Golden Knights did following their first experience of playoff success.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Snapshots: Pesce, Third Overall Pick, Florida Everblades
The Carolina Hurricanes have been one of the NHL’s most consistently competitive franchises in recent years and a major reason for their success has been the fact that they’ve thus far avoided giving out the types of inefficient, expensive contracts that eat up too much salary cap space and have sunk other team’s competitive hopes. A byproduct of that tendency to stick to their own valuations of players and not let the market dictate their plans has been that they’ve seen some talented players leave, players other clubs might have found a way to retain. Players such as Dougie Hamilton and Vincent Trocheck are examples of this, and perhaps the next player to be added to that list could be defenseman Brett Pesce.
Per a report from The Athletic, “If Pesce’s demands aren’t realistic to what Carolina had in mind” for his next contract, the Hurricanes “may very well trade him this summer.” (subscription link) Pesce, 28, will see his $4.025MM AAV contract expire next summer and could be looking to secure a significant raise after seeing himself go underpaid due to that contract relative to the immense on-ice value he’s provided. Pesce set a new career high in points this past season and is widely respected as a top-of-the-line defenseman in his own end. He’d likely fetch a significant return if traded, so it seems the Hurricanes may consider trading Pesce this summer in order to recoup some value rather than risk retaining him through the expiry of his contract next summer, only to see him leave for another team with Carolina receiving no compensation in return.
Some other notes from across the NHL:
- With the Blue Jackets aggressively pursuing upgrades to their roster that will help them win in the short-term, many have wondered if the Blue Jackets would consider trading the third overall pick in this year’s draft in order to get a quality, established player. Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen spoke on the prospect of trading the pick, according to the Columbus Dispatch’s Brian Hedger. Kekalainen said it would take “an awful lot” in order to convince the team to trade that pick, and although they’ve received trade calls nothing yet has come close to being enough for the team to consider making that deal. The Blue Jackets have long sought after a true first-line center to build their forward corps around, and with promising pivots such as Leo Carlsson and Will Smith expected to be available for Columbus to draft, it seems Kekalainen would need to be truly wowed by an offer in order to move the third pick.
- The ECHL’s Florida Everblades secured their second consecutive Kelly Cup championship last night, sweeping the league’s finals against the Idaho Steelheads, a team that went on a historic run during the regular season. The Steelheads went 58-11-3 and stormed to the Kelly Cup finals but couldn’t find an answer to former University of North Dakota netminder Cam Johnson and the Everblades. Former Merrimack College captain Tyler Irvine scored the championship-clinching goal midway through the third period of the contest, leading the Everblades to the third title in their franchise history.
Devils Notes: Wood, Bahl, Boqvist
With two major restricted free agents to negotiate contract extensions with in Timo Meier and Jesper Bratt, it’s no surprise that the New Jersey Devils may be forced to say goodbye to some familiar faces. Damon Severson, a quality blueliner with over 600 games played as a Devil, was traded yesterday and, according to recent reporting, another veteran Devil could follow him out the door: Miles Wood.
The Hockey News’ Kristy Flannery relays word from Wood’s agent, Peter Fish, “that there has been no communication” with Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald on a possible Wood contract extension. While it’s likely that the Devils would ideally like to keep Wood, their salary cap situation and other existing needs are likely to force his exit in free agency. As a result, Fish and Wood are preparing to hit the open market on July 1st. Wood will hope to find the right contract in his first trip to unrestricted free agency, and after scoring 13 goals and 27 points this past season his rare combination of size and speed could be of interest to other teams.
Some other notes about the Devils:
- Flannery’s article also contained updates on the status of restricted free agent defenseman Kevin Bahl, whose $795k contract is set to expire. The soon-to-be 23-year-old emerged as a lineup regular for the Devils later in their season and is widely expected to be a part of the team’s blueline mix next season. Given that he has just 66 games of NHL experience, Bahl’s next contract shouldn’t break the bank, though the defensive upside the hulking six-foot-six Bahl possesses could be factored into the equation as well, potentially raising the price tag of any new deal. Bahl’s agent, David Gagner, confirmed to Flannery that he and Fitzgerald “are engaging in preliminary talks,” and it could be that the Devils would prefer to get some cost certainty on Bahl’s next deal before finalizing the Meier/Bratt contracts.
- 24-year-old forward Jesper Boqvist‘s agent Peter Wallen relayed to Flannery that “there has been no communication with Fitzgerald and the Devils” on any new contract as of five days ago. Boqvist emerged as a lineup regular this past season scoring 10 goals and 21 points in 70 games. The 2017 36th overall pick has scored well at lower levels and the Devils are likely hoping to retain him on an affordable deal so they can fill out some depth roles in their lineup with young, energetic homegrown players such as Boqvist on cheaper contracts.
Colorado Avalanche Extend Wyatt Aamodt
The Colorado Avalanche have announced that defenseman Wyatt Aamodt has been signed to a one-year contract extension. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed in the team announcement.
Aamodt was set to become an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent as his one-year entry-level contract was about to expire. Now, with this extension, he’ll avoid any lengthy offseason negotiations and secure his spot in the Avalanche’s plans for next season.
Aamodt will turn 26 early next season and is entering his second full season as a professional hockey player. He’s an undrafted player who spent four seasons with Minnesota State University, playing on some highly successful teams and earning the right to captain the squad in his senior season.
There isn’t a ton of offense in Aamodt’s game, but the five-foot-eleven left-shot blueliner capably handled a regular role on the AHL’s Colorado Eagles’ defense. His strong two-way game kept him in the Eagles’ lineup and earned the trust of head coach Greg Cronin, who recently took the job as the head coach of the Anaheim Ducks.
Late in the season, Aamodt was partnered with rookie NCAA signing Sam Malinski and Aamodt’s steady, reliable play helped Malinski make an instant offensive impact in the AHL, as he scored 10 points in his first 14 games as a professional.
This one-year extension is Aamodt’s reward for a quality campaign in the AHL, and next season he’ll be relied upon once again as a regular in the Eagles lineup, and Aamodt will likely hope to take a step forward in his play and make a push to potentially earn an NHL call-up.
Columbus Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Provorov As Part Of Three-Team Trade
With Mike Babcock expected to be named Columbus Blue Jackets head coach later this summer, the Blue Jackets have made a major push to improve their roster for his first season as head coach.
In a trade officially announced by all three involved teams, Columbus is acquiring defenseman Ivan Provorov from the Philadelphia Flyers, but there are a lot of moving parts to the deal. Here are the full details as told by the team announcement:
Philadelphia trades Ivan Provorov and Hayden Hodgson to Los Angeles in exchange for Calvin Petersen, Sean Walker, Helge Grans and the Kings’ 2024 second-round pick. Columbus acquires Kevin Connauton from Philadelphia in exchange for a 2023 first-round pick (22nd overall) and conditional second-round pick in either the 2024 or 2025 NHL Draft. Columbus acquires Provorov from Los Angeles in exchange for Connauton.
The Kings are retaining 30% of Provorov’s deal, meaning he’ll cost $4.725MM against the cap for Columbus for the next two seasons.
Laid out plainly, here is what each team is acquiring as part of this deal:
Columbus gets: Provorov. Philadelphia gets: Petersen, Grans, Walker, 2023 1st (via CBJ via LA), 2024 2nd (via LA), conditional 2nd (via CBJ). Los Angeles gets: Hodgson, Connauton.
Columbus’ acquisition of Provorov should not come as a surprise, as it was reported months ago that the team had an interest in acquiring a defensive upgrade to fill the void left by their trade of Vladislav Gavrikov to Los Angeles. Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen has found his upgrade in Provorov, 26.
Provorov was the seventh-overall pick at that 2015 draft and at times looked to be a potential top-of-the-lineup, all-situations force for Philadelphia. He averages over 24 minutes per night for his career, and has a career-high of 17 goals and 41 points.
But in recent seasons, as the Flyers themselves have descended from consistent playoff team to league basement-dweller, Provorov’s form has declined and this season he played a full minute less per game than his career average, earning 23:01 time on ice per contest.
As Provorov’s inconsistency became harder and harder to ignore and the Flyers organization began to pivot to more of a rebuild-like direction, it became clear that a change of scenery would likely be in the best interest of all parties.
Now Provorov gets his change of scenery with two seasons remaining on his contract. He’ll land in Columbus, where he’ll be slotted more appropriately as the team’s number-two left-shot defenseman behind franchise face Zach Werenski.
Assuming Werenski can return to form next season after an injury cost him most of his 2022-23, Provorov will be in a more comfortable position as a second-pairing anchor. It’s likely that the Blue Jackets believe he’ll be able to reach the heights he hit earlier in his career in that position sort of position, when he’s not being leaned on as his coach’s number-one option.
For the Kings, the motivations behind this deal seem relatively clear. First and foremost, creating cap space was an important priority, and is something the Kings have done by sending Petersen and his $5MM AAV deal to the Flyers.
Petersen once looked like a potential successor to Jonathan Quick for the Kings, posting a solid .911 save percentage in 35 games in 2020-21. Since that point, though, Petersen has declined sharply and this season spent most of the year in the AHL as he had a grisly .868 save percentage in his 10 NHL games. Now Petersen will get a fresh start in Philadelphia while the Kings clear his hefty cap hit off their books, save for any money they retain. (which will be revealed when the official trade details come in)
Cap space is of importance to the Kings as they are looking to sign an extension with Gavrikov, their mid-season trade acquisition. ESPN’s John Buccigross on Twitter cited a conversation with a Kings executive who pegged the cost of Gavrikov’s contract extension to be in the “$6-7 million” range, with the team preferring to keep the number as early in the $6MM range as possible. If the Kings do end up finalizing that sort of contract extension with the 27-year-old Russian rearguard, this trade of Petersen is an essential one.
ESPN’s Kevin Weekes reports that Gavrikov is “only interested in a two-year contract extension with the Kings,” which could contribute to the higher price tag Buccigross is reporting, as the conventional wisdom is that short-term contracts for coveted players who are in their prime would carry higher average annual values than the more traditional long-term commitments.
Meanwhile, the trade of Walker (reportedly to Philadelphia) is no surprise seeing as the Kings have been long expected to deal from their surplus of right-shot NHL-ready blueliners. With Sean Durzi a breakout talent and 22-year-old Jordan Spence clearly ready to take on the challenge of the NHL, it seems Walker was the odd man out in the team’s right-shot defensive picture.
Walker is a 28-year-old undrafted Bowling Green State University product who is making $2.65MM against the cap for one more season. He scored 13 points in 70 games this season and contributed to the team’s penalty kill, but his average ice time was cut from 18:22 per game last year to just 14:50 this season.
Perhaps he’ll be able to earn a larger role in Philadelphia, or the Flyers could even opt to flip him to another team to earn even more draft capital to further their rebuild process.
They’ll also get Connauton, a 33-year-old defender with 360 games of NHL experience on a $762.5k cap hit for next season. He scored 15 points in 63 games in 2022-23 for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms of the AHL, and it was his first season since 2013 spent without a single NHL game played. He’ll likely play with the Ontario Reign in the AHL and add to the Kings’ defensive depth.
Hodgson, 27, has just seven games of NHL experience but scored 19 goals and 31 points in 46 AHL games in 2021-22. His point total dropped to eight this past year, but perhaps the physical forward can return to AHL prominence in Ontario.
For Philadelphia, this deal is all about adding as much draft and prospect capital to further their rebuild under new GM Daniel Briere. Getting a first-rounder in a highly-regarded draft is a solid return for Provorov, and the additional two second-rounders are a great bonus. Grans has had an uneven time in the AHL with the Kings organization, but he’s still just 21 years old and was the 35th overall pick at the 2020 draft. He’s a talented prospect who could quickly put himself in the Flyers’ blueline mix.
This trade is Briere’s first move in what is likely to be a summer of major change for the Flyers. If they are indeed pursuing a complete rebuilding process, (perhaps including a trade of netminder Carter Hart, who has been the subject of “industry rumblings” about a potential trade) this is a strong first transaction to get that rebuild started.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman first reported the deal taking place. ESPN’s Kevin Weekes, The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline, Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek, and ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski each first reported other elements of the deal.
Dallas Stars Extend Fredrik Karlström
The Dallas Stars have announced a one-year, two-way contract extension for pending Group Six unrestricted free agent forward Fredrik Karlström. The financial terms of the deal were not included as part of Dallas’ announcement, but have been reported by PuckPedia. Karlström’s deal will carry a league-minimum $775k AAV as well as a $225k AHL salary and a $250k total guarantee.
Karlström, 25, was a third-round pick of the Stars back at the 2015 draft who has been a depth forward in Dallas for the past two seasons.
He took an extended development path to reach his current role, spending four full seasons in the SHL with Linkoping HC and Vaxjo Lakers. Karlström signed a two-year entry-level deal with Dallas in the summer of 2020 and was loaned back to Vaxjo for the following campaign, where he won a championship and scored a combined 35 points in 65 regular season and playoff SHL games.
After that year he decided to try his luck in North America and spent most of his 2021-22 season with the AHL’s Texas Stars. He registered a respectable 16 goals and 29 points in 65 games, helping his team reach the AHL’s playoffs. He also earned the right to make his NHL debut in an April 21st, 2022 contest against the Calgary Flames, a game where he also scored his first NHL point.
This season was more of the same for Karlström, as he was a consistent, versatile middle-six forward in the AHL while managing to competently handle fill-in duty in the NHL when Dallas was hit with the injury bug. He managed to dress in five NHL games in 2022-23, and he played well enough to earn this one-year extension that will allow him to occupy a similar role next season.
Free Agent Focus: Montreal Canadiens
Free agency is now a little less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Montreal Canadiens.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Cole Caufield – While the Canadiens have the fifth-overall selection and there have long been rumors aplenty of Winnipeg Jets forward Pierre-Luc Dubois‘ desire to play in Montreal, this Canadiens offseason is all about Caufield. The 22-year-old sniper has emerged as a star since he arrived on the scene late in the 2020-21 season and was scoring at a 46-goal pace before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery.
Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis seemed to revive Caufield after a miserable start to his rookie season and since the Canadiens’ new bench boss took over Caufield has been the centerpiece of Montreal’s offensive attack.
He won’t turn 23 until January, and his chemistry with team captain and franchise face Nick Suzuki is something Montreal can build around as they continue a rebuild. It’s overwhelmingly likely that the Canadiens would prefer a long-term extension for Caufield, similar to the eight-year deal former GM Marc Bergevin inked with Suzuki in 2021.
But the main question is whether the two sides can reach an agreement on a long-term deal both sides are satisfied with, as there are some questions that will need to be answered. While they remain likely to prefer a long-term deal, could the Canadiens be more hesitant to pay top dollar for a Caufield extension given Caufield’s shoulder injury?
On the flip side, could Caufield prefer a shorter bridge contract in order to sign his long-term deal a little further down the line when he won’t have his injury hanging over his head, and when the salary cap will be quite a bit higher? Those are difficult questions to answer, but thankfully for Canadiens fans the bottom line is there does appear to be a shared desire to find a long-term solution that keeps Caufield with the 24-time Stanley Cup champions.
F Denis Gurianov – Acquired in a straight swap for veteran scorer Evgenii Dadonov, Gurianov flashed some serious promise in Montreal but also remained mired in similar inconsistencies to the ones that doomed his tenure with the Dallas Stars. The 2015 12th overall pick turns 26 this summer and is eligible to receive a qualifying offer at the $2.9MM he made last season. After he scored five goals and eight points in 23 games in Montreal, the Canadiens will need to decide if they have a place for Gurianov next season, and if so whether they’re willing to keep him at his qualifying offer price tag.
As the success of offseason trade acquisition Kirby Dach illustrated, the Canadiens believe they have an exceptional player development infrastructure and the type of environment in place to allow underperforming players to take new steps forward in their careers. It’s possible that they’ll want to see what their staff can do with Gurianov given more time, though it does seem more likely that they’d prefer to retain him at a cap charge a few notches below his qualifying offer.
F Rafael Harvey-Pinard – Harvey-Pinard burst onto the scene after Caufield’s injury and ended up finishing the season tied for fourth on the Canadiens in goal scoring, proving to be a major success story for the Canadiens’ development pipeline. He scored 14 goals in just 34 games and showcased the kind of work ethic and hockey sense that reminded some fans of players such as Brendan Gallagher and Artturi Lehkonen.
A 2019 seventh-round pick, Harvey-Pinard has scored exceptionally well at the AHL level (56 points in 69 games in 2021-22, 16 goals, and 31 points in 40 games this past year) and seems to be a potential long-term NHL player for the Canadiens. It’s probably a bit too early for the team to consider an extension with significant term attached for Harvey-Pinard as he still has just 38 NHL games on his resume, but a short-term one-way deal that gives Harvey-Pinard the platform to shine on the Canadiens’ roster on a more extended basis could be the right move for both parties.
Other RFAs: F Jesse Ylonen, F Lucas Condotta, F Mitchell Stephens, F Joel Teasdale, D Nicolas Beaudin
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Sean Monahan – While the main reason the Canadiens acquired Monahan last summer was to acquire the first-round pick the Calgary Flames sent with him, early this season it seemed Montreal had unlocked something in Monahan as well. The 28-year-old averaged nearly 28 goals per season from 2013-2020 but had recently seen injuries decimate his on-ice effectiveness and availability. That paved the way for the Flames to pay the Canadiens to acquire him and for Monahan to get a clean slate to attempt to revive his career.
After 25 games, it seemed that he’d done exactly that as he’d scored 17 points, good for a 56-point 82-game pace. But once again major injuries prematurely ended Monahan’s season, and placed the future of his career into serious question. If he can remain healthy, he’s the type of player nearly every NHL team could find a place for. But he’s unfortunately been unable to find the ice consistently in recent years, and any interested teams will have to factor that into whether they offer him a contract.
The CBA has provisions placing Monahan in a unique position, where he will be eligible to earn performance bonuses on his next contract as a player who has played over 400 NHL games and spent over 100 days on injured reserve. Could an incentives-laden one-year deal returning Monahan to Montreal make sense for both sides?
F Jonathan Drouin – While it’s to a lesser extent than Monahan, injuries have also laid waste to the recent seasons of Drouin’s career. Significant wrist troubles have sapped much of the luster from a shot that scored 21 goals earlier in his career, and Drouin scored only two goals in 58 games this past season. Now 28 years old, it’s clear the 2013 third-overall pick isn’t going to be the star offensive generator he was once promised to become.
But what’s also clear is that Drouin still has something to offer an NHL club. Despite lacking the ability to threaten defenders and netminders with his shot, Drouin still managed to tally 27 assists and finished with 29 points in 58 games, a 41-point full-season pace. He remains a skilled offensive player capable of contributing on a scoring line, and given his recent struggles he could likely be signed this summer to a relatively cheap contract.
With the ability to sign anywhere, Drouin will likely be more of a priority for clubs hard-pressed by the salary cap looking to add some skill on the cheap to their roster. As a result, it looks increasingly likely that his formal exit from Montreal will come soon.
F Alex Belzile – A well-traveled minor-league veteran, Belzile set a career-high in NHL games played with 31 this season, and scored decently well with 14 points in largely a fourth-line role. Belzile is a versatile depth forward with some physicality to offer and has been a difference-making AHLer for many years now. It’s likely in the Canadiens’ best interest to retain him on a reasonable contract extension to bolster the lower end of their NHL lineup, though one can’t rule out that Belzile’s recent performances might have generated leaguewide interest in his services.
Other UFAs: F Anthony Richard, F Chris Tierney, F Paul Byron, D Frederic Allard, D Madison Bowey, D Corey Schueneman
Projected Cap Space
With Carey Price‘s $10.5MM AAV contract now almost certainly a permanent LTIR fixture, the Canadiens have more breathing room under the cap than they might have had in recent years. The expiry of Monahan and Drouin’s two contracts, which together cost over $10MM against the cap, provides additional room for the team to maneuver. While a solid chunk of the Canadiens’ projected $19MM in cap space will be earmarked for a Caufield extension, there remains ample room for the team to operate and potentially make some meaningful additions.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.