With the new year fast approaching, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

Andrei Kuzmenko, Vancouver Canucks

The second-straight Canuck to headline free agency stock watch, Kuzmenko is not your traditional candidate to be a top-of-his-position-group free agent. But he certainly has the numbers to back up his case.

After a lengthy courting process this summer, the Canucks signed Kuzmenko to a one-year, $925K deal out of the KHL’s SKA St. Petersburg. Kuzmenko scored 53 points in 45 games in the KHL, and while the inevitable questions of whether his KHL numbers would translate persisted, he has silenced them so far this year.

Kuzmenko has been a rare bright spot in a Vancouver market that hasn’t had much fun in 2022-23, scoring 14 goals and 29 points in 32 games.

Kuzmenko has helped the Canucks’ power play convert on 26.6% of its opportunities on the man advantage, which ranks inside the league’s top ten.

But complicating the good vibes surrounding Kuzmenko’s success has been the potential contract standoff that looms. After re-signing J.T. Miller to a seven-year, $8MM AAV extension, the Canuckks have seemingly made re-organizing their cap balance sheet a priority.

That raises some questions. Do the Canucks have the financial bandwidth to compete with the many bidders Kuzmenko is likely to attract? If the Canucks want to retain Kuzmenko, does the cost of his extension necessitate trading Brock Boeser, even if his $6.65MM cap hit means the team’s received return in any deal could be a fraction of Boeser’s on-ice value?

The months leading up to the opening of free agency won’t be easy ones for Canucks management. Kuzmenko’s stock is soaring, and while the Canucks are reaping the benefits at the moment, it’s possible that his play is pricing him out of a long-term extension to stay in British Columbia.

Max Pacioretty, Carolina Hurricanes

While Pacioretty has 850 games of NHL experience under his belt, his trip to free agency next summer has the potential to be just as complicated as Kuzmenko’s. Why? because Pacioretty has yet to take the ice this season and make his Hurricanes debut.

Pacioretty underwent surgery to repair a torn Achilles this summer, and that has kept him from meaningfully altering his stock through his on-ice play. What could potentially threaten Pacioretty’s earning potential, beyond just not scoring much upon his return from injury, is what his trade from the Golden Knights said about his leaguewide value.

The extreme constraints some teams were feeling under the salary cap over the Summer was no secret, but the difficulties of the flat cap were made clear when Pacioretty, a six-time 30-goal scorer on an expiring contract, was dealt with a young defenseman in Dylan Coghlan for future considerations.

The Golden Knights seemingly did not value Pacioretty at his $7MM cap hit, and were so eager to clear his hit from their books that they parted with Coghlan in order to facilitate a deal, receiving nothing but cap flexibility in return.

If Pacioretty is seeking to avoid taking a pay cut this summer on a long-term deal, that trade likely didn’t help matters. His injury, by no fault of his own, only added to that declining stock.

A strong performance in Carolina, including maybe even a productive deep playoff run, could do wonders to rehabilitate Pacioretty’s stock before he hits free agency. But at this point, with his capabilities upon his return to the ice still a mystery, Pacioretty may be the biggest question mark of the entire upcoming free agent class.

The Solid Contributors

Tyler Bertuzzi, Detroit Red Wings

Speaking of question marks, Bertuzzi has, like Pacioretty, also dealt with his fair share of availability-related issues recently. Bertuzzi underwent back surgery in 2021 and recently underwent surgery once again.

He’s been limited to just nine games played this season, and has scored four points. Last year, though, Bertuzzi posted excellent production, ranking second on the Red Wings in points with 30 goals and 62 points in 68 games.

That version of Bertuzzi was in line to get paid. The hard-nosed winger plays the sort of agitating, skill-and-sandpaper game that GMs across the league greatly covet, and when adding his near point-per-game production to the mix, he was lining himself up for a massive payday.

His health issues have now complicated that and meant that his stock is trending down. He still has time to return to the ice and play well for a Red Wings team that looks poised to remain in the playoff hunt.

He’ll be 28 when free agency opens, meaning he represents a relatively young investment compared to the glut of in-their-thirties free agents that typically populate the market.

But until his health issues are put behind him and he returns to playing his valuable, unique (if sometimes controversial) style of game, his stock must be considered to be on the decline.

Michael Bunting, Toronto Maple Leafs

When Bunting hit unrestricted free agency two years ago, he wasn’t without teams interested in securing his services. Coming off of an impressive 21-game showing with the Arizona Coyotes, where he scored 10 goals in 21 games, Bunting could maybe have cultivated a small bidding war and simply taken the most lucrative (likely one-year) contract he was offered.

But instead of taking that route, the Scarborough, Ontario native prioritized fit, and with Zach Hyman set to exit Toronto, he chose to sign a two-year, $950k deal. Presumably, that contract offer was selected with the possibility of playing as the third wheel on Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner’s line in mind.

In 2021-22, Bunting was indeed placed on that line, and he promptly scored 23 goals and 63 points. This year has been more of the same, as Bunting has remained one of the league’s most valuable non-ELC players on a cost-per-point basis, scoring 24 points in 34 games.

Bunting, whose Toronto tenure has established his ability to not only help more skilled players shine, but also produce well without a featured power play role, has lined himself up for a solid free agent payday.

While the ever-so-slight downturn in production (he scored 63 points last year and is scoring at a 58-point pace this year) may seem notable to some, Bunting’s stock is most definitely on the rise as he’s adding another productive season to his resume while remaining a valuable contributor to what looks to be another Maple Leafs regular-season juggernaut.

Jason Zucker, Pittsburgh Penguins

Of all the players already listed and still to come, Zucker’s stock may have shot up the most since the start of 2022-23.

His health issues seemingly behind him, Zucker has scored 21 points in 29 games so far this year.

Zucker’s leaguewide reputation as a capable if relatively unexciting second-line scorer, a reputation he once enjoyed before it was eroded by an injury-plagued Penguins tenure, is seemingly on the path to being restored.

While some might quibble that Zucker’s issues on the defensive side of the ice should diminish his case for a hefty free-agent contract, Zucker will be 31 when free agency opens and has a shot to cross the 50-point plateau for the first time since 2017-18.

Well-liked veterans with those numbers don’t leave the free agent market empty-handed.

James Van Riemsdyk, Philadelphia Flyers

While the Flyers’ season has gone a bit off the rails since a promising start, Van Riemsdyk’s re-integration into their lineup after finger surgery in October has gone swimmingly.

Van Riemsdyk has 13 points in 15 games, meaning just four points separate him from the Flyers’ top-five scorers despite that limited sample size. For years one of the league’s premier net-front specialists, it seems Van Riemsdyk is still a capable scoring-line forward at the age of 33.

He’ll be 34 when free agency opens, and although his scoring rate is likely to slow down a bit he’ll likely be an attractive short-term piece for a contender. Even if his scoring slows down as we get deeper into the season, his stock is definitely up from where it was last season, when he scored a still-solid 24 goals and 38 points in 82 games.

Tomas Tatar, New Jersey Devils

After scoring 30 points in 50 games two years ago in his free agency platform season, the contract Tatar ultimately signed (a two-year, $4.5MM AAV pact with New Jersey) may have been a bit lighter than some expected. The Slovak forward had scored 61 points in 68 games the year before, and was considered a quality top-six piece.

Tatar’s time as a healthy scratch for most of his Canadiens’ run to the 2021 Stanley Cup final may have contributed to his more lukewarm-than-anticipated market, although if the Devils end up qualifying this spring he’ll have an opportunity to put together a productive postseason run.

Tatar has scored nine goals and 19 points in 34 games, which puts him at a 46-point 82-game pace. He scored 15 goals and 30 points in his debut season as a Devil, so his improved production would indicate his stock is up in advance of what could be another free agent trip.

He’s the sort of player who could really solidify a strong position on the market if he can finally have a productive playoff run.

Pavel Zacha, Boston Bruins

Zacha, 25, has long been seen as an underachieving player who has quite a bit more upside left to be unlocked. Ever since he was drafted sixth overall in 2015, high expectations have been placed on Zacha’s shoulders, and he hasn’t yet lived up to them.

This year has been a step in the right direction, though. Since being traded to a Bruins team that currently looks unstoppable, Zacha has scored 20 points in 33 games, a 50-point pace. He’s done so despite a shooting percentage of just 5.5%, a significant decline from his career 10.7 shooting percentage.

If Zacha can add some more goals and see his puck luck improve to something a bit less dire, he could reach a new level of production and value. He’ll have just recently turned 26 if he hits the open market next year, and if he can have a productive playoff run, he could set himself up for a major payday.

While he may remain an underwhelming player given his high draft slot in what has looked like a historic 2015 first round, he has undoubtedly raised his stock this year and set himself up to earn a pretty penny if he can keep up his current play.

Zach Parise, New York Islanders

Parise, who will be 39 this next summer, continues to defy father time as a steady and productive goal scorer for the Islanders. After being bought out by the Minnesota Wild, Parise signed a cheap, league-minimum deal with the New York Islanders, brokered by the GM of his former team, Lou Lamoriello.

Parise, largely playing with franchise face Mathew Barzal, scored 15 goals and 35 points. He may not have been the elite first-line running mate Islanders fans wanted, but he was solid nonetheless. He signed another bargain-bin extension to remain on the Island this summer and has scored at a 26-goal, 40-point pace.

The hefty buyout from the Minnesota Wild attached to him, along with the contracts he’s received for the past two seasons indicates that he’s unlikely to be looking for a major free-agent cash-in. Instead, he seems to have prioritized fit, and as long as he feels a desire to keep playing, his scoring numbers will earn him another deal from the Islanders.

The Role Players

Marcus Johansson, Washington Capitals

The Capitals signed Johansson, a familiar face, to a one-year, $1.1MM deal this summer, coming off of a somewhat unremarkable showing for the team that spring. After being acquired from the Seattle Kraken, Johansson scored six points in 18 games.

He was brought back in the summer in large part due to the organization’s familiarity with him and they valued the versatility, reliability, and stability he could bring to their forward corps.

This year, Johansson has gotten a major power play role and has scored 16 points in 36 games, in large part thanks to the offensive opportunity he’s been afforded by coach Peter Laviolette. That’s a 37-point pace, and if he manages to finish in the 35-40 point range going into his free agency he could attract some interest outside of Washington.

While Johansson isn’t going to be a fit for a team looking for a depth signing that brings defensive fortitude, this year he’s shown that he can still contribute at the NHL level, and his performance should earn him some looks as a 32-year-old free agent.

Nick Foligno, Boston Bruins

After he received a contract worth $3.8MM against the cap with a two-year term, Bruins fans could not be blamed for expecting more from Foligno in his first year in Beantown.

The former Columbus Blue Jackets captain scored just two goals and 13 points in an injury-limited 64-game campaign, and his lone assist in the team’s seven-game playoff series loss to the Carolina Hurricanes only added to the buyer’s remorse.

The Bruins chose to retain Foligno at his cap hit for this season, and he has rewarded them with improved play. He has scored 16 points in 33 games, a 40-point pace, and he has done so despite skating just over 12 minutes per night.

While Foligno’s first season in Boston and failures as a Toronto Maple Leaf may give some teams pause next summer, his stock is firmly trending up from where it was last season.

Alexander Kerfoot, Toronto Maple Leafs

Kerfoot, a Maple Leaf for the past few seasons, is a curious case. He’s got loads of offensive skill and managed to score 51 points last season.

While the bottom fell out of his production in the playoffs, as he scored just two points in the team’s difficult seven-game loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning, he was a mid-twenties 50-point player capable of playing the wing or center in a pinch. Those are players that don’t grow on trees.

And yet this season, the decline that was hinted at in the playoffs has fully set in. Kerfoot’s production has declined, as he is scoring at just a 36-point pace, and even more time on the power play than last year hasn’t caused an uptick in points production.

While points are far from the only metric teams will use to determine the value of a player, it can be valuable to use points to serve as a baseline guiding light when appraising the value of offensive players. While Kerfoot does see time on the Maple Leafs penalty kill, the 51 points he scored last year were undoubtedly the most attractive component of his resume.

With that decline in production and no truly meaningful improvement to his all-around role to make up for it comes a decline in his stock heading into his trip to unrestricted free agency.

Nick Ritchie, Arizona Coyotes

Exiled from the Maple Leafs after their roll of the dice on him failed to pay dividends, Ritchie has carved out a nice role away from the bright lights of one of hockey’s biggest markets.

In Arizona, Ritchie scored 10 goals and 14 points in 24 games after arriving there via trade, and this season he has seven goals and 13 points in 26 games. While the days of Ritchie being a top prospect are long gone, he’s turned himself into a viable shoot-first third-liner who brings some size to his line.

He’ll be a 27-year-old free agent, and while the Coyotes may have some interest in continuing their mutually-beneficial partnership, the scoring winger is likely to receive interest from elsewhere as well.

Sonny Milano, Washington Capitals

One of the more curious cases of this past summer’s free agent class, Milano was non-tendered by the Anaheim Ducks and lingered far longer on the open market than many fans likely had anticipated he would.

After scoring 14 goals and 34 points in 66 games, many were hoping their team would add the 26-year-old 2014 first-round pick as a down-the-lineup scoring forward.

What observers may have perhaps underestimated, though, was just how negatively Milano’s all-around game could have been rated leaguewide. Never a defensive player, the failure of Milano’s PTO agreement with the Flames only made questions about his commitment to defense and the all-around game louder.

He signed a league-minimum one-year deal with the Washington Capitals, and after being called up to the main team he hasn’t looked back. He has scored 16 points in 23 games, often playing with some of the Capitals’ more established offensive talents, like Evgeny Kuznetsov.

While Milano remains the type of player whose defensive warts likely merit some sheltering from his coach, points are points and if Milano can keep up this red-hot start to his Capitals tenure, he should have an easier trip to the open market than he had last season.

Miles Wood, New Jersey Devils

The depth of next summer’s class of potential free agent left wingers has enviable depth. There are players like Milano, who brings offensive flair at a cheap price, and then there are players like Wood, who outside of some bursts of goal-scoring isn’t really valued for his production.

Wood, one of the faster players in hockey, is valued for his leadership ability, physical contributions, and abilities along the boards. Wood is part of a Devils fourth line that, when healthy, plays a fast, chaotic style that can give opposing teams fits on the forecheck.

He’ll be just 27 years old when he hits the market and could draw significant interest from teams looking to re-create that Devils fourth line. If he can play well under the bright lights of a possible Devils playoff run, he could have quite a few suitors if he hits the open market.

Adam Erne, Detroit Red Wings

Erne’s free agency case is relatively straightforward. Erne, who followed GM Steve Yzerman from Tampa Bay to Detroit, is valued by coaches for what he brings away from the puck rather than with the puck on his stick.

The former QMJHL star contributes to the Red Wings’ second penalty-killing unit, scores at a respectable clip (13 points in 32 games), is able to play almost anywhere in the lineup in a pinch, and will be 28 when he hits the open market.

That’s an attractive all-around package of skills, even if it’s not one that’s as rare as what some of his fellow free agents bring to the table.

While his overall talent level hasn’t changed very much, and his free agent stock remains largely steady as a result, the increased role Erne has played in Detroit in response to the team’s rash of injuries has meant his offensive production has ticked up from where it was last year.

He’s on pace to score 33 points, which would be quite a ways past his career-high of 2o. While his ability to play a quality supporting role on a Red Wings team that has been competitive so far this year should be what earns him the most looks on the open market, his increased offensive opportunity (and his shooting percentage going up from 5.6% to 16.1%) will help his stock trend up.

Andrew Cogliano, Colorado Avalanche

Cogliano, a veteran of 1,170 NHL games, has a clearly defined role in Colorado. He’s tasked with being a go-to penalty killer, a defensive specialist, and a valuable locker room voice. Any offensive production on top of that is just an added bonus.

While the 35-year-old is out of the lineup with an injury at the moment, his play so far this year has been solid, keeping his stock in a steady place. He’s earning $1.25MM against the cap, and as he ages that number is far more likely to go down rather than up.

But if Cogliano can continue to play well in his role for the defending Stanley Cup champions, he’ll undoubtedly earn another contract this summer.

Others Of Note

Matt Nieto, San Jose Sharks

The Sharks don’t have a highly competitive forward lineup, meaning Nieto has gotten a larger opportunity than he’d likely receive elsewhere. The 601-game veteran has responded well. On the offensive side of the ice, Nieto has scored 12 points in 31 games, an increase from the 17 points in 70 games he scored last year.

More impressively, Nieto is playing the most minutes of any Sharks forward on the penalty kill. The results of his heavy workload? He has helped lead his team to the top of the NHL’s penalty-kill rankings.

The 30-year-old has been skating in a bigger role than ever before in his NHL career, and while the Sharks have faltered, he’s thrived.

Andreas Athanasiou, Chicago Blackhawks

Athanasiou signed a one-year, $3MM deal with the Blackhawks in the offseason, an identical deal to the one Max Domi signed. Like Domi, Athanasiou likely agreed to the contract with the hope that playing next to Patrick Kane, a play-driving offensive force, would boost his numbers and land him a fatter contract the next summer.

While Domi has thrived to a certain degree, Athanasiou hasn’t been great. He has just 10 points in 31 games, and while seven of those are goals his failure to fully fit with Domi and Kane has seen him move down in the lineup.

A player with blazing speed and tantalizing one-on-one skills, Athanasiou has never quite been able to play consistently with linemates as part of a three-player unit. The best offensive players are able to leverage their position as part of a group of players in order to create scoring changes. That’s something Athanasiou has struggled with immensely this year and has been a challenge for him in the past.

While there’s still room for him to bounce back, his stock is down so far this year, and whether he receives much interest on the trade market later this year will be telling as to how he’s valued leaguewide.

Evgenii Dadonov, Montreal Canadiens

After landing in Montreal as part of a cap-clearing offseason trade, Dadonov likely had the hope that he’d soak up prime offensive opportunities on a rebuilding team, stack some points, and be traded to a contender mid-season. If that were to happen, he’d in all likelihood have placed himself in a solid position to earn a new contract.

Unfortunately, Dadonov’s tenure in Montreal has gone wildly off the rails. The former 70-point scorer had moments of brilliance last season and finished with 20 goals and 43 points. After 28 games this year, Dadonov is on pace to score around 20 points.

Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis has tried to squeeze some value out of the 33-year-old veteran in lots of different ways, including even giving him penalty-killing looks, but none of his attempts have worked.

After a season where Dadonov played exceptionally well in stretches, his stock has declined sharply in Montreal.

Picture courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

With the new year fast approaching, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

Bo Horvat, Vancouver Canucks

Just a few months ago, it seemed impossible to imagine this current Canucks core led by anyone other than Horvat. The Canucks’ captain has been a centerpiece player in British Columbia since being drafted ninth overall in 2013, and the value he provides to the franchise both on and off the ice can oftentimes seem irreplaceable.

But with Vancouver’s season running off the rails, the team’s recent extension of J.T. Miller to a massive new contract, and their front office’s stated desire to gain more financial flexibility, it’s getting harder and harder to imagine a path where Horvat remains in Vancouver.

While Horvat may be disappointed at the increasingly realistic prospect of his Canucks departure, what should cheer him up is his play so far this season. Horvat has scored 22 goals and 31 points in 32 games, a number that puts him tied for fourth in goals in the NHL.

Horvat will be 28 years old when he first takes the ice with a new contract, a factor that could make him a more attractive long-term investment to teams than the players in their thirties that typically populate a free agent class. That, combined with his well-regarded defensive play and value as a leader means Horvat could be in a position to potentially earn the largest contract of the 2023 free agent class.

Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings

Larkin is in many ways similar to Horvat. Like Horvat, Larkin is a team captain and a player who is known for providing value on both ends of the ice as well as off of it.

Unlike Horvat, though, there is a strong possibility that Larkin remains with the only franchise he’s ever known.

With 31 points in 31 games, Larkin is currently on pace for another season at or near the point-per-game threshold.

He’ll have just turned 27 years old when he hits free agency, and the reality of the NHL is that in-their-prime centers who combine offensive production and all-around play very rarely hit the open market.

While fans may not be pleased that an extension hasn’t been hammered out yet, Larkin has played exactly as well as anyone could have reasonably expected of him, and that deal should be coming.

The Red Wings’ cap sheet is not nearly as constrained as nearly every other team in the NHL, so with how well Larkin has been playing it would be a genuinely shocking development for him to do anything but remain in the Motor City.

Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis Blues

While this section is labeled as free agency’s “marquee names” at the center position, it could also be called “the captains.” That’s because like Horvat, Larkin, and the two other names in this section, O’Reilly is a quality center and captain of his team set to hit free agency this summer.

Unlike the four other names in this group, though, O’Reilly’s play this season has not helped his case to earn a major contract this summer. And that decline in his stock is coming from his play at both ends of the ice.

As one would expect, the 2019 Conn Smythe Trophy winner is leading the Blues in short-handed ice time per game and playing a centerpiece defensive role for his club. Last season, the Blues had a top-five penalty kill, canceling opponents’ power plays at an 84.1% clip. O’Reilly led the way in getting the Blues to that point.

This year, it’s a different story. O’Reilly is still playing in that top defensive role, but the Blues are near the bottom of the NHL with a 71.3% penalty kill rate. That’s not all on O’Reilly’s shoulders, but as the player with the most ice time in those situations and coach Craig Berube’s most trusted defensive weapon, he does bear some responsibility for that decline.

What’s also declined as sharply as the Blues penalty kill is O’Reilly’s scoring numbers. O’Reilly has scored just 15 points in 33 games, a 37-point 82-game pace. Just two years ago, O’Reilly scored at nearly a point-per-game rate. Last year, he scored a healthy 58 points in 78 games.

As far as his next contract is concerned, if he doesn’t manage to go on a hot streak and get into the 40 or 50-point range, that offensive decline could put a serious dent in his earning potential. That’s doubly true of any perceived decline in his defensive game, as that’s his calling card.

Just as the Blues are looking to right the ship during what has been so far an uneven campaign, O’Reilly is likely looking to get back to the level of play he put forth in prior seasons in order to earn the best possible contract this summer.

The playoffs have been the games where O’Reilly’s star shines the brightest, so perhaps he’ll need to lead the way on another deep playoff run to alleviate fears that a steep age-related decline is setting in.

Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins

Bergeron’s free agency case is quite simple. Unlike most players, he’s not really in need of a “stock watch” entry. He’s scored 26 points in 32 games, could very well win yet another Selke Trophy, and is captaining a Bruins team that is currently laying waste to the entire NHL.

And he’s also costing the Bruins just $2.5MM against the cap.

Just as Bergeron is a special player, his upcoming free agency is a special situation. As he did this past summer, Bergeron will likely take some time to reflect and decide if he wants to return for another season, and then agree with the Bruins on an extension that makes sense for both parties.

He could go on a nine-game scoreless drought. He could make a few uncharacteristic defensive lapses and single-handedly tank the Bruins’ league-leading penalty kill a few percentage points. Doesn’t matter. A decision on his future this summer is entirely in his own hands, which is a right he’s earned after nearly two decades in Boston.

Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks

Toews, a three-time Stanley Cup-winning captain, and one-time Selke Trophy winner, is in a similar situation to Bergeron. The one complicating factor in Toews’ case compared to Bergeron’s is the state of the Blackhawks.

The Blackhawks are on a fast track to the highest odds for the NHL draft lottery, and there’s been much speculation over whether Toews wants to stick around in Chicago through what appears to be a painful, scorched-earth rebuild.

If he chooses to test the market, it’s likely that choice would come from a motivation to win one more Stanley Cup ring, which means his market and next contract could ultimately be decided by personal preference, rather than financial factors.

On the ice, Toews’ play has been solid, and while he’s not the lineup-topping two-way force he once was, his 17 points in 30 games on such a poor team is nothing to scoff at, and there are far worse second or third-line centers a team could have than Toews.

The Solid Contributors

Ivan Barbashev, St. Louis Blues

If one just compares this season to 2021-22, Barbashev’s stock in advance of his potential free agency is down. Barbashev scored 26 goals and 60 points last season, and now he is scoring at a 40-point pace. That decline alone will likely mean fewer dollars on his next contract.

But if we put Barbashev’s 2021-22 offensive explosion into a bit more context and look at a longer-term outlook, his stock would undoubtedly have to be viewed as being up.

Before last season, Barbashev’s career-high in points was 26. He was seen as more of a two-way center whose offensive skills simply were not refined enough or dangerous enough to allow him to create offensive opportunities consistently in the NHL.

Last year, Barbashev changed that narrative, and even though he hasn’t reached those heights so far this season he’s still managing to play at a 40-point pace. 40-point centers who can hold their own on both ends of the ice remain valuable, and while Barbashev isn’t going to win Selke trophies he does have a defensive dimension to his game.

Barbashev just recently turned 27, and if a team buys into the idea that he can return to scoring around the 60-point mark, he could get paid. But even if teams are less optimistic about his offensive game, his play this year is still far above what he once put forth at the NHL level, and has put him in a position to earn a quality contract.

J.T. Compher, Colorado Avalanche

When Nazem Kadri faced some injury issues in the 2022 playoffs, it was Compher’s job to step into a greater role down the middle and ensure the machine that was the 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche kept moving. He did exactly that and won a Stanley Cup as a result.

This year, with Kadri now in Calgary and the Avalanche battling a downright absurd amount of injuries, Compher has quietly stepped forward and provided competence, reliability, and all-around value. He’s scored 16 points in 31 games so far this year, and that 42-point pace, if sustained, would fly past his career-high of 33 points.

He’ll be 28 years old this summer, and his ability to play under pressure and step forward into a higher role in the lineup than he was originally slotted to occupy should make him a coveted name on the market.

Sean Monahan, Montreal Canadiens

Once a slam-dunk 25-30 goal scorer, injuries had derailed Monahan’s career so severely that the Flames paid a future first-round pick to the Canadiens just so they would absorb his contract. Since that trade, Monahan has had a bit of a career revival, leading a young Canadiens squad to a surprisingly competent start and scoring at a far better rate than he’s done in the past two seasons.

So far this year, Monahan has scored 17 points in 25 games. He’s battling an injury again, but it’s not one that’s expected to keep him from making his return to the lineup with a ways to go left in the season.

While Monahan’s struggles with injuries may give teams pause about a major long-term commitment, his play in Montreal has been a resoundingly positive development for his career. He may not receive the kind of contract he once looked in line to cash in on, but he’ll likely still be an in-demand piece if he can keep up this career rebirth when he returns from IR.

Max Domi, Chicago Blackhawks

From one angle, it seems as though Domi’s decision to take a one-year, $3MM deal last summer from the Blackhawks was done largely to put himself in the best possible position for a summer of 2023 free agency. So far, he’s done just that.

After a season that saw him play unevenly with the Columbus Blue Jackets and be traded to the Carolina Hurricanes at the deadline, Domi signed with Chicago likely with the hopes that his natural offensive talent would mesh with that of the Blackhawks’ franchise face, Patrick Kane.

Domi has indeed played with Kane, and while they are far from a perfect partnership, they are first and second on the Blackhawks in scoring, with Kane at 22 points in 31 games and Domi at 21 in 31.

There has always been the possibility of a higher offensive ceiling with Domi, who scored 72 points in 2018-19, but he wasn’t able to reach that point in Columbus or in his short stay in Carolina.

While Domi is undeniably an extremely talented player on an individual basis, his vision can be lacking at times and he doesn’t always play as a member of a three-player unit, sometimes preferring to use his tantalizing skills on his own to create offense without thinking about how he can best utilize the players on the ice with him.

In the right fit, Domi can thrive, and with a bit of luck, he’s shown that he can be among a team’s top scorers. But he’s far from a sure thing. If Domi can play well after his seemingly inevitable midseason trade to a contender, and finish near his current scoring pace of 56 points, he’ll enter the market on stronger footing than he did last season.

Jordan Staal, Carolina Hurricanes

Staal is in a similar position to Toews and Bergeron, even though he’s not quite the caliber of player they are/were. He’s a beloved face of the franchise in Carolina and in a position where he’s likely to remain there at a reasonable price.

In his recent 32 Thoughts blog, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman stated that “no one is expecting [Staal] to leave Carolina.” Staal has scored 14 points in 33 games so far this year, which is a 34-point pace. That’s right in line with the 36 and 38 points he’s scored in the last two seasons.

Staal still shoulders a major defensive role in Carolina, handling difficult defensive matchups and playing the most time on the penalty kill of any Hurricanes forward. Although the Hurricanes’ short-handed unit has taken a bit of a step back so far this year, that won’t stop Staal from earning a market-rate extension in Carolina if that’s the path he chooses.

The Role Players

Erik Haula, New Jersey Devils

Haula, who will be 32 when free agency opens next year, has entered a bit of a journeyman phase in his career. He’s played for six different teams in the past half-decade and could play for his eighth NHL franchise if he leaves the New Jersey Devils this summer.

A versatile forward who can play center or on the wing, Haula plays a Swiss Army Knife role, scoring at a 35-point pace and on the Devils’ second penalty-killing unit.

Haula’s age may keep him from a long-term pact, but his stock is holding steady as he provides steady veteran two-way play to a young Devils team that’s had an extremely impressive season.

Frederick Gaudreau, Minnesota Wild

Gaudreau is a bit of a late bloomer, getting his first complete season as a full-time NHLer at the age of 28. He didn’t waste that opportunity, though, scoring 14 goals and 44 points in 76 games.

This year, Gaudreau’s offense hasn’t gotten back to that point, as he has just 14 points in 33 games. But he averages the most short-handed ice time per game on the Wild, helping Minnesota’s penalty-kill to an above-average 13th-place rank so far this year.

His free agency will be somewhat difficult to predict, as he’ll have only two seasons on his resume as an everyday NHLer. But as of right now while his stock is down from where it was last season, he’s still put himself in a strong position for an undrafted former minor leaguer.

 Lars Eller, Washington Capitals

While Eller, who will be 34 during free agency, isn’t the player he once was, he’s still providing value for the Capitals. He plays a reliable two-way game and has scored 13 points in 34 games. He’s a veteran who is in his seventh year as a Capital and has a Stanley Cup-winning goal on his resume.

His stock is down from where it might have been a few years ago when he was one of the league’s best third-line centers and comfortably capable of scoring 15 goals and 35-40 points. But in a league where centers are always in demand, Eller has kept up his play enough to put him in a solid position if he enters the market next year.

Oskar Sundqvist, Detroit Red Wings

Versatility is the name of the game with Sundqvist. The Red Wings, like the Blues for many years, have deployed Sundqvist in all sorts of roles, as a center or winger, as a physical fourth-liner, or as a complementary piece next to skilled players such as Pius Suter and Dominik Kubalik.

But just as versatility is what Sundqvist is the constant of Sundqvist’s game, so is battling injury issues. Sundqvist’s career-high for games played in a season is 74, and that came all the way back in 2018-19. Since that point, Sundqvist hasn’t managed to cross the 60-point mark in any given year.

The trouble he’s had staying healthy will likely be his biggest question mark on the market. Teams know what he can bring on the ice, but they might question how often he can do so. Still, so far this season Sundqvist’s play in Detroit has pushed his stock up, and what could really sustain that upward trend as he gets closer to free agency would be a continued clean bill of health.

David Kampf, Toronto Maple Leafs

An undrafted player out of the Czech Republic, Kampf is in line to cash in after turning in quality play in a bottom-six role on one of the NHL’s biggest stages. In his first year in Toronto, Kampf scored 11 goals and 26 points, while also playing nearly two and a half minutes per night on one of the league’s better penalty kills.

This year, Kampf has resumed his role anchoring the Maple Leafs’ play with a man in the box and has scored at a 31-point pace. His stock has been moving steadily upward since he arrived in Toronto.

While part of that is likely due to the fact that the size and fervor of the Toronto market magnified his performances, attributing his rising stock to the Toronto factor alone would be doing a disservice to the hard work Kampf has put forth. He’s genuinely turned himself into a reliable, quality NHL bottom-sixer.

Kampf isn’t going to break the bank, but he’ll be a 28-year-old free agent with two straight strong years on his resume in a massive market.

If he chooses to head to free agency, there’ll most definitely be interest from across the league. The only potential threat to his market could be the flat cap, as defense-first bottom-six players like Kampf could be the first in line to be squeezed in the market by the leaguewide lack of cap space.

Teddy Blueger, Pittsburgh Penguins

Blueger, 28, returned from a season-opening injury and looks like he hasn’t missed a beat. The Latvian has been a responsible bottom-six center for the Penguins, scoring 28 points in 65 games last year. He has six points in 18 games this year and has resumed his role as a defensive specialist.

As mentioned with Kampf, it’s possible that a minimal cap increase squeezes defensive specialist players into smaller contracts than they likely deserve. We saw that happen with Zach Aston-Reese last summer, as he is a capable defensive winger who was forced to sign a PTO with Toronto in the absence of suitable full contract offers.

With that in mind, it may be in Blueger’s best interest to take a one-year deal and re-enter the market in a raised-cap environment. His stock at the moment remains as steady as his play, but will the market be able to catch up?

Tomas Nosek, Boston Bruins

Nosek, 30, is the fourth-line center on what is right now the NHL’s best team. He plays responsibly in his own end, kills penalties, and chips in some offense once in a while. And now that he’s a veteran of over 350 NHL games, it’s become clear that this is the kind of player Nosek is at this point in his career, there’s no real mystery there.

He’s a consistent presence, and his consistency extends to his offensive production, where he is scoring at an 18-point pace after scoring 17 last season. There is always a place for guys like Nosek in the league, even if he doesn’t end up cashing in on a major contract.

Nick Bonino, San Jose Sharks

A veteran of nearly 800 NHL games, Bonino is a known quantity across the NHL. The two-time Stanley Cup champion will be 35 by the time free agency opens next year, and without an extension will be searching for the seventh NHL home of his career.

Bonino brings value defensively and has shown some recent flashes offensively, scoring 16 goals last season. He has four goals and nine points in 32 games this season. Looking just at his offensive production, it appears his stock is down, but with the Sharks’ penalty kill firing on all cylinders with Bonino a major part of it, one has to imagine he’s not fretting about his NHL future too much.

Others Of Note

Nick Bjugstad, Arizona Coyotes

The 30-year-old veteran signed a one-year, $900K deal in Arizona after a challenging two-year stretch in Minnesota. He’s been exactly as advertised for Arizona, scoring seven goals in 31 games. The Coyotes are a bad team, but Bjugstad has been decent and his play this year should be enough to protect his spot and earn him a deal for next season, even if it does end up being around his current $900K cap hit.

Noel Acciari, St. Louis Blues

Acciari is in a similar position to Bjugstad as a shoot-fist bottom-sixer with some goal-scoring luck so far this year. The 31-year-old has eight goals in 33 games and has managed to hold down a regular spot in St. Louis, playing anywhere from the first to fourth line.

His play likely merits a deal around what he’s earning against the cap right now, $1.25MM, but the flat salary cap could make squeezing out every last dollar a bit more of a difficult prospect, potentially making a sub-$1MM deal more likely.

Derek Stepan, Carolina Hurricanes

While Acciari and Bjugstad have found some scoring luck, the same cannot be said about Stepan. The former New York Ranger has scored just four points in 30 games so far this year.

While Stepan’s name still carries some value to some, a player’s play always does the most talking. in 2022-23, Stepan’s play has been silent, and it could cost him on the open market.