Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Vegas Golden Knights
Current Cap Hit: $92,736,310 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
None
Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level
G Laurent Brossoit ($2.325MM, UFA)
G Adin Hill ($2.175MM, UFA)
F Brett Howden ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Phil Kessel ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Nolan Patrick ($1.2MM, RFA)
F Sakari Manninen ($750K, UFA)
Kessel was brought in a couple of weeks ago once the Golden Knights learned that they had some extra LTIR flexibility. He’s not the high-end sniper he was in the prime of his career but he still finished third on the Coyotes in scoring last season and should be a low-cost secondary scoring option on a team that doesn’t have a lot of value contracts. Howden was limited last season due to injuries and often was on the fourth line when he was in the lineup. Despite that, he received this contract back in July to avoid any possibility of arbitration but he’ll need to take on a bigger role to justify getting qualifying him with arbitration rights next summer.
Patrick saw very limited action last season as his concussion issues continued and he might be another LTIR candidate for the upcoming season. Unless something changes, he’ll be non-tendered in June. Manninen’s strong showing at both the Olympics and the Worlds earned him his first NHL contract at the age of 30 on a one-way agreement and will have a good chance to earn a roster spot, especially if they have enough LTIR flexibility to carry more than the minimum-sized roster.
Brossoit was brought in last summer to serve as the backup goaltender and continued his trend of alternating good and bad years with 2021-22 landing in the latter category. His availability for the start of this coming season is in question due to hip surgery so he is going to have a limited window to show that he’s worthy of a similar contract next summer. Hill was recently acquired using part of their extra LTIR space and should get a good opportunity to boost his stock heading into free agency next summer, especially if he could lock down the starting role at some point. Even if not, he could get a small boost as the backup market continues to improve.
Signed Through 2023-24
F Michael Amadio ($763K, UFA)
F William Carrier ($1.4MM, UFA)
D Ben Hutton ($850K, UFA)
F Jonathan Marchessault ($5MM, UFA)
D Alec Martinez ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Chandler Stephenson ($2.75MM, UFA)
Marchessault is one of the few remaining original Golden Knights and is the leading scorer in franchise history after five strong seasons. He’ll be 33 on his next deal and if he can maintain the type of production he has provided Vegas, he could get a multi-year agreement around this rate again. Stephenson has become quite the bargain after Washington couldn’t find a regular role for him in the lineup. He has quickly become a top-six center that makes third-line money and at this point, him doubling his current AAV is definitely doable on the open market in 2024.
Carrier isn’t a significant scorer although he produces more than most fourth-liners do while providing them with plenty of physicality. This is a bit of an above-market deal for someone in that role compared to a lot of fourth-liners signing for around $1MM or less but Vegas is getting more out of him than other teams will from their depth pieces. Amadio was brought in off waivers last year and was a decent depth contributor, earning himself a one-way deal but he’ll need to become an everyday regular to do much better than that in 2024.
Martinez likely left money on the table when he signed an extension last summer but injuries really limited him last season which has hurt his value. He’ll be 37 when his next contract starts and at that point, he might have to go year-to-year at a lower rate than this one. Hutton turned a PTO into a one-year deal, then did well enough to get this extension. He has been in a fringe role for a few years now so his market isn’t likely to change much over the next couple of seasons.
Signed Through 2024-25
F Keegan Kolesar ($1.4MM, UFA)
G Robin Lehner ($5MM, UFA)
F Jake Leschyshyn ($767K, UFA)
D Brayden McNabb ($2.85MM, UFA)
F Jonas Rondbjerg ($767K, UFA)
F Reilly Smith ($5MM, UFA)
D Shea Theodore ($5.2MM, UFA)
G Logan Thompson ($767K, UFA)
Smith hasn’t been able to produce at the level he did early on in his time with Vegas but he continues to be a reliable secondary option that can play in all situations so the team opted to hand him a new three-year deal in July at the same rate of his last one. If the downtick in production continues though, he’ll be hard-pressed to get another $5MM deal in 2025. Kolesar avoided arbitration with his deal last month and did well with this agreement following his only full NHL season. Clearly, Vegas believes he has another level he can get to which would make this a team-friendly deal if he can step into a regular role on the third line. Leschyshyn and Rondbjerg were both up and down last season but are now waiver-eligible which could help them stick at the end of the roster and could boost their stock by securing a regular spot in the lineup at some point during their contracts.
Theodore has emerged as a strong top-pairing blueliner over the last few seasons which makes his deal one of the biggest bargains they have as they’re getting top production at a second-pair rate. He’ll be 30 at the end of this agreement so a max-term contract could be coming his way at a considerably higher price tag than this one. McNabb, meanwhile, isn’t a big point-producer and provides most of his value on the defensive side of things. As long as he can continue to hover around the 20-minute mark, the Golden Knights will get a good return on this contract.
Lehner was the undisputed starter for Vegas last season with Marc-Andre Fleury being traded away last summer in a straight salary cap dump move. However, injuries limited him to just 44 games while he battled inconsistency which is hardly the outcome they were hoping for when they picked Lehner to be the starter. To make matters worse, they recently revealed that he will need hip surgery that will keep him out for all of the upcoming season. While that created the LTIR room for them to add Kessel and Hill, Lehner’s absence certainly also creates a big question between the pipes not only for the upcoming season but beyond as well since hip issues can often be a lingering issue.
Thompson will get an opportunity to be at least the short-term answer to the goaltending question as he will get a long look at being the starter this season. If he can lock down that role, his contract will become one of the top bargains in the league. If things don’t go well, however, he’s a candidate to be sent down when Brossoit is cleared to return; Thompson remains waiver-exempt for the upcoming season.
Atlantic Notes: Zub, Allen, Bertuzzi
With the Senators recently getting a long-term deal done with Tim Stutzle, the logical next choice for an extension would seemingly be winger Alex DeBrincat who was acquired from Chicago at the draft. However, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports in the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link) that defenseman Artem Zub is the one that Ottawa will be shifting its focus to. The 26-year-old is entering the final season of a two-year, $5MM contract and will be an unrestricted free agent next summer if a new agreement isn’t in place by then. Zub has quickly cracked Ottawa’s top four and has 36 points in his first 128 NHL contests. That smaller track record could make a long-term extension tougher to navigate but it’s likely that it will need to come in higher than the $3.25MM in salary he’s set to receive this season.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic:
- Earlier this week, ESPN’s Kevin Weekes reported (Twitter link) that the Canadiens had opened up extension discussions with goaltender Jake Allen. Friedman clarified in his podcast that those discussions are still in the preliminary stage and that nothing is close while the team wants to get a sense of Allen’s intentions sooner than later. The 32-year-old is entering the final year of his contract that carries a $2.875MM AAV and with Carey Price likely done for the season already, he’ll once again be their projected starter. Between that and the recent market for veteran goalies, Allen could push closer to the $4MM range on a new deal with Montreal.
- Dylan Larkin isn’t the only notable Red Wings forward that’s entering the final year of his contract as winger Tyler Bertuzzi is also in that situation. MLive’s Ansar Khan posits that a long-term agreement for the 27-year-old should check in somewhere between $6MM and $7MM per season. Bertuzzi is coming off his best season with 30 goals and 32 assists in 68 games after missing almost all of 2020-21 due to injury and even with a more limited market compared to most free agents since he wasn’t able to play in Canada last season, he’ll be one of the more sought-after players if he gets to free agency next summer.
Dominik Simon Signs In Czechia
After seeing NHL action in each of the last seven seasons, Dominik Simon is heading home to where it all began as Sparta Praha of the Czech Extraliga announced that they’ve signed the 28-year-old to a two-year contract.
Simon played in a career-high 72 games last season split between the Penguins and Ducks after he was included in the Rickard Rakell swap just before the trade deadline. He picked up three goals and ten assists in those contests while averaging a little over ten minutes a night, numbers that put him in line with plenty of fourth liners. For his career, he has 22 goals and 55 assists in 256 games, most of which came during a pair of stints with Pittsburgh.
However, while he had a PTO offer from Pittsburgh this summer to possibly land a third opportunity with the team, he has instead decided to go for a guaranteed role back home. Simon should have a chance to play a much bigger role than the fourth line spot he has become accustomed to so a good showing overseas could get him back on the NHL radar for 2024.
Metropolitan Notes: Zucker, Bailey, Hagelin
Jason Zucker’s tenure with the Penguins has been a tough one with the veteran struggling to stay healthy and not being as productive as expected when he has played. With that in mind, some wondered if they’d try to find a home for him this summer. As Dave Molinari of Pittsburgh Hockey Now reports, they did have the opportunity to do so but elected to not pay the high premium it would have cost to do so. The proposal, which is believed to come from a division rival, would have seen the Penguins part with a first-round pick to clear the final year and $5.5MM of his deal off the books while not receiving anything in return. We’ve seen that happen recently with the Sean Monahan trade but it would have been a steep price to pay for Pittsburgh. Interestingly, no team in the division has the money to take on Zucker’s deal outright so this opportunity likely would have come early in the summer before other moves were made.
More from the Metropolitan:
- While some expected the Islanders to move Josh Bailey in order to free up cap space this summer, Arthur Staple of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that the winger was told at the draft that he wouldn’t be getting moved. The 32-year-old managed to record 44 points in 74 games last season but has seen his production taper off over the last few seasons compared to a three-year stretch where he had at least 56 points per season. Bailey has two years left on a contract that carries a $5MM AAV and in this trade market, New York would have been hard-pressed to get top value for his services if they did move him.
- Capitals winger Carl Hagelin took part in informal team skates without needing a no-contact designation, relays Tarik El-Bashir of The Athletic (Twitter link). The veteran has been dealing with an eye injury that has his availability for the upcoming season in question but the fact he’s skating without restriction bodes well for him. The 34-year-old had 14 points in 53 games last season.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Vancouver Canucks
Current Cap Hit: $85,261,667 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Nils Hoglander (one year, $891.7K)
F Andrei Kuzmenko (one year, $950K, UFA)
F Vasily Podkolzin (two years, $925K)
Potential Bonuses
Hoglander: $300K
Kuzmenko: $850K
Podkolzin: $850K
Total: $2MM
Kuzmenko had several suitors in the spring following a strong season in the KHL that saw him put up 53 points in 45 games. If he’s able to lock down a spot in the top nine, the Canucks will get a good return on this deal and he’ll have a chance to hit some of his ‘A’ bonuses. Notably, Kuzmenko will be an unrestricted free agent next summer again and obviously, his showing this coming season will dictate the level of interest he gets next time around.
Podkolzin’s first NHL season was a solid one as he was a capable secondary scorer with 26 points in 79 games while mostly playing only at even strength. He should have a similar role in 2022-23 which wouldn’t have him on the trajectory for a pricey second deal; a bridge contract would be the likelier route for him. A similar role will make it tough to reach his ‘A’ bonuses as well. Hoglander took a step back in his sophomore year and dropped down the depth chart. With the extra depth that they’ve brought in, his production will likely be limited, pointing him in the direction of a bridge deal as well that might check in around double his current price tag. He probably won’t hit his ‘A’ bonus but the $87.5K in games played is achievable.
Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level
D Kyle Burroughs ($750K, UFA)
D Travis Dermott ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Justin Dowling ($750K, UFA)
F Micheal Ferland ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Bo Horvat ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Brady Keeper ($762.5K, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($850K, UFA)
Horvat has been a reliable two-way pivot for most of his career and has been playing on a below-market contract for the last few years. That’s likely to change next summer when he’ll be one of the top centers on the open market. Adding a couple million to his current price tag is doable. Ferland missed all of the last two seasons with concussion issues and won’t play this year either. He’ll be on LTIR which will help get Vancouver back into cap compliance. Dowling split last season between the NHL and AHL and is the type of depth player that could stick around for another couple of years at the minimum.
Dermott has had a quiet couple of seasons now and this feels like a make-or-break situation for him. If he can establish himself as a capable secondary producer from the back end and stabilize the third pairing, he could land a small raise next summer beyond his $1.75MM qualifying offer. If not, he’s a non-tender candidate. Schenn showed himself to be capable of being a regular on the back end last season after being more of a reserve player and that could generate a stronger market next summer and push him past the $1MM mark. Keeper and Burroughs will be battling for a spot at the end of the roster but both are players that will be unlikely to land much beyond the minimum on their next contracts.
Signed Through 2023-24
F Jason Dickinson ($2.65MM, UFA)
G Spencer Martin ($762.5K, UFA)
D Tyler Myers ($6MM, UFA)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Elias Pettersson ($7.35MM, UFA)
D Jack Rathbone ($825K, RFA)
Pettersson opted for a bridge contract last summer which helped Vancouver to stay cap-compliant and give them a little more flexibility in the short term. However, the contract is significantly backloaded and carries a qualifying offer of $8.82MM next summer (the lower of 120% of the AAV or the final year’s salary of $10.25MM). At this point, the 23-year-old is well on his way to being worth that qualifying amount but the Canucks will likely need to come in above that to get him to commit to a long-term agreement. Otherwise, he could simply opt to take the minimum offer and test the open market in 2025. Horvat’s deal is the priority right now but Pettersson’s situation looms large from a planning perspective.
Pearson improved upon his performance from the year before but it was still a notch below how he did in his first full season with the Canucks. On its own, the contract isn’t an overpayment but the market has been tight for middle-six wingers lately so there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to get that two years from now. Dickinson’s first season with Vancouver was a disaster. Brought in to be the third-line center, he instead struggled mightily, putting up the worst full-season numbers of his career. At this point, he’s a candidate to be waived in training camp (which would still leave a lingering $1.525MM cap charge).
Myers hasn’t lived up to his contract from a value standpoint but he has logged some heavy minutes in a top-three role since joining the Canucks three years ago. His offensive game has tailed off which won’t help his market two years from now but he should still be able to land a multi-year deal in the $4MM range in 2024. Rathbone is another player that will be in the mix for a roster spot with Vancouver in training camp and notably received a one-way deal for both years despite having limited NHL experience. He has the offensive ability to put up some numbers that could quickly escalate his salary two years from now if he’s able to lock down a regular role in the lineup.
Martin has very limited NHL experience with just nine appearances under his belt, six of which came last season where he did well enough to earn the backup nod. If the 27-year-old can establish himself as a capable full-time backup based on performance and not his contract, there will be an opportunity to add a couple of million or more on his next deal.
Signed Through 2024-25
F Brock Boeser ($6.65MM, UFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($1MM, UFA)
D Tucker Poolman ($2.5MM, UFA)
Boeser’s case was one that had some pressure on it earlier this summer when the qualifying offer deadline was getting close. In the end, he took less than that number ($7.5MM) in exchange for a three-year commitment. Boeser produced closer to the level of a second-liner last season and if that continues, this could wind up being an above-market contract. Lazar comes over after spending last season with Boston on their fourth line and he’ll likely have the same role with Vancouver. There really isn’t much risk with this deal; $1MM for a capable fourth liner is a fair price.
Poolman is someone whose availability is certainly in question as he continues to try to work his way back from a concussion. When healthy, he is an option for the third pairing but if he’s unable to start the season, he could go on LTIR and simplify Vancouver’s short-term salary cap situation.
Snapshots: Penguins, Vikman, Jenner
With nine defensemen on their roster, it would appear at first glance that the Penguins might be a team to watch for on the trade front. Team president Brian Burke acknowledged to Dave Molinari of Pittsburgh Hockey Now that there are some teams calling to inquire about their blueliners although, for the time being, there aren’t any active trade discussions. Prospect Pierre-Olivier Joseph is now waiver-eligible and likely wouldn’t sneak through and while Ty Smith is exempt from hitting the waiver wire, they didn’t acquire him from New Jersey for John Marino simply to play him in the minors. While there’s nothing on the front-burner now, there’s a good reason to think that Pittsburgh could be moving a defenseman at some point over the next month.
Elsewhere around the NHL:
- While Golden Knights prospect Jesper Vikman is eligible to turn pro and play in their minor league system this season, it’s expected that he’ll be returned to WHL Vancouver, notes Steve Ewen of the Vancouver Province. The 20-year-old was a fifth-round pick by Vegas back in 2020 and had a decent start to his major junior career with a 3.05 GAA and a .903 SV% in 35 games with the Giants. While the Golden Knights might benefit from a bit of extra depth in their farm system with some of the uncertainty that they have between the pipes, sending him back would likely be best for his development.
- Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner told Aaron Portzline of The Athletic (subscription link) that he has fully recovered from the back injury that cost him the final 23 games of last season. Jenner has missed time with back trouble in three different seasons now but all three have been in different areas. The 29-year-old had 44 points in 59 games last season while logging over 20 minutes per night for the first time in his career and he will undoubtedly be a welcome return for a Columbus team that is looking to turn their fortunes around quickly following the addition of Johnny Gaudreau this summer.
Five Key Stories: 8/29/22 – 9/4/22
As the calendar has flipped to September, activity has started to pick up around the league with training camps on the horizon as some notable signings headline our key stories.
Vegas Adds A Goalie: With Robin Lehner out for the year, Vegas was looking at entering the season with a tandem of Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit, who is coming back from hip trouble. GM Kelly McCrimmon spent some of his increased flexibility to add Phil Kessel earlier and then used most of what was left this past week to add another option between the pipes, acquiring Adin Hill from San Jose in exchange for a fourth-round pick. The 26-year-old had an okay first season with the Sharks, posting a 2.66 GAA with a .906 SV% in 25 games in an injury-riddled year. He has one year left on his contract with a $2.175MM AAV and while he has just 74 career NHL games under his belt, he’ll give the Golden Knights another viable option as they look to get back to the playoffs without a true number one netminder.
Keeping Their Coach: Mike Sullivan had two more years left on his contract so there was no immediate need to work on a new deal. However, that didn’t stop the Penguins from locking up their bench boss as they handed him a three-year extension to keep him under contract through the 2026-27 campaign. Sullivan has been behind the bench since December 2015, making him the second-longest tenured coach in the NHL behind Tampa Bay’s Jon Cooper. In that time, Pittsburgh has a 297-156-54 record (.639 points percentage) while winning a pair of Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017. The Penguins have had stability behind the bench for a while and with this move, that won’t be changing anytime soon.
Seven For Thompson: Tage Thompson was one of the biggest surprises in the NHL last season. After recording just 18 goals and 17 assists in his first 145 games, he exploded offensively in 2021-22 with 38 goals and 30 assists in 68 contests to lead the Sabres in scoring. While Buffalo could have waited to see if he could sustain those numbers this coming season, they’ve instead given him a significant vote of confidence, handing him a seven-year, $50MM extension that will begin in 2023-24 and buys out five seasons of UFA eligibility. It’s a deal that certainly carries some risk if the 24-year-old takes a step back offensively, but if his performance is a sign of things to come, the Sabres will have their top a big piece of the puzzle locked up for the long haul.
Bridge For Oettinger: With Dallas not having a ton of cap space at their disposal and the fact that Jake Oettinger only had just 77 career NHL appearances, a bridge deal was the expected outcome for the restricted free agent. In the end, that’s exactly what happened as the two sides agreed to a three-year, $12MM agreement that will keep the 23-year-old RFA eligible at its expiration with a $4.8MM qualifying offer. Oettinger started last season in the minors but quickly ascended to the starting role after being recalled in November, posting a 2.53 GAA along with a .914 SV% before a stellar performance against Calgary in the playoffs which nearly allowed them to pull off the seven-game upset. With this deal done, the Stars will now turn their focus to RFA winger Jason Robertson.
Sticking Around: For the better part of a year, Canucks center J.T. Miller had been the subject of trade speculation with the team believed to have gone fairly deep into discussions with other teams. But the whole time, both parties said they wanted to find a way to get an extension in place and they were able to do just that as the veteran signed a seven-year, $56MM deal that will begin in 2023-24. The 29-year-old is coming off a dominant season that saw him record 99 points, good for ninth in the league. $8MM for a top center isn’t overly expensive from an AAV perspective if Miller is able to maintain close to that level of production although signing him through his age-37 season will carry some risk. Even so, Vancouver has their top pivot locked up for the long haul as they look to get back to playoff contention.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Snapshots: McLeod, Red Wings, Boudreau
With the Oilers having minimal cap flexibility (as it is, they likely need to clear money), Kurt Leavins of the Edmonton Journal believes that RFA center Ryan McLeod will ultimately be forced to take a one-year contract. The 22-year-old had 21 points in 71 games last season but doesn’t have much leverage on his side as it’s unlikely he’ll be offer-sheeted while the bulk of his NHL experience is from 2021-22. Accordingly, Leavins posits that a one-year agreement might check in just above the league minimum which would help Edmonton’s cap situation but also give him arbitration rights next summer.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- The Red Wings have invited prospect Ivan Ivan to rookie camp, the youngster confirmed to Bob Duff of Detroit Hockey Now. The 20-year-old went undrafted back in July despite a strong season with Cape Breton of the QMJHL where he had 31 goals and 34 assists in 65 games. Ivan most recently suited up for the Czechs at the World Juniors last month and is eligible to play in the pros this season so even if he can’t earn an entry-level contract with Detroit, an AHL deal could still be a possibility.
- Last season, Bruce Boudreau was the toast of the town in Vancouver as the new bench boss nearly led the Canucks to an improbable playoff appearance. Despite that, Adam Proteau of The Hockey News posits that the head coach is squarely on the hot seat for 2022-23. The team is clearly in win-now mode and has returned its core from last season with a couple of additions and he wasn’t picked by current management as he was installed behind the bench before Patrik Allvin took over as GM. Allvin declined to offer a contract extension after the season so Boudreau instead will coach on the final year of his deal. Those factors will certainly put pressure on him early and often.
Snapshots: Miller, Sabres, Oettinger
As part of his seven-year, $56MM contract that was signed yesterday, Canucks forward J.T. Miller received a full no-move clause. That in itself isn’t noteworthy but he was eligible to have it apply to the upcoming season as part of the contract as well since he’s of UFA age. However, CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that this was not the case. As a result, Miller does not have any sort of trade protection between now and July 1st when the NMC kicks in so if things don’t do well next season or Vancouver decides to shake things up, Miller will be trade-eligible even with his new deal in place.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- Sabres GM Kevyn Adams told Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News that part of the reason they weren’t overly active in free agency this summer was to give them the flexibility to extend their internal core as their contracts come up. We saw an example of that recently with the seven-year agreement with center Tage Thompson while Dylan Cozens is a year away from a pricey new deal of his own; Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Peyton Krebs are extension-eligible next summer. If Adams intends to work out long-term deals with all of those players, they’ll need all the flexibility they can get so their discipline this summer will be worth it later.
- While Jake Oettinger ultimately settled for a three-year, $12MM bridge deal, the netminder told reporters including Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News that has made it clear to his representatives that he wants to stay in Dallas for the long haul. The contract still represents quite the raise for someone that actually spent a month in the minors last season before being recalled for good in mid-November and his AAV will get a notable bump three years from now as he’ll be owed a $4.8MM qualifying offer.
Classifying The Remaining Restricted Free Agents
When the calendar flips to September, it’s time to start paying some attention to who’s left unsigned in restricted free agency. Usually at this point, two months have elapsed since the start of free agency (it’s six weeks this summer) which is typically more than enough time to get a deal done.
There are currently 13 remaining RFAs that haven’t signed elsewhere for next season. As is usually the case, those players can be grouped into a few tiers which are as follows.
Star Players
Jason Robertson (Dallas)
Generally speaking, there are usually more players in this group at this time but the 23-year-old is the only star player in need of a new deal. He’s coming off a 41-goal campaign that has the asking price justifiably high – team owner Tom Gaglardi acknowledged it’s in the $7MM range. The Stars would likely prefer to do a long-term deal that buys out some UFA years but that could push the AAV past $9MM and they don’t have the cap space to do that. At this point, what GM Jim Nill does or doesn’t do on the trade front might dictate what ultimately happens with Robertson; if they can free up some money, a long-term agreement becomes palatable but otherwise, it’ll almost certainly be a bridge contract.
Underachieving Former First Rounders
Erik Brannstrom (Ottawa), Kirby Dach (Montreal), Barrett Hayton (Arizona), Rasmus Sandin (Toronto)
Dach and Hayton were both top-five picks in their respective draft classes but have yet to show the type of offensive consistency to put them in the category of core players. Dach was traded to Montreal at the draft after a quiet season that saw him put up nine goals and 26 points, both career-highs. Despite that, it appears that the Canadiens are at least pondering a medium-term agreement that would run for four years but still leave him RFA-eligible at the end. Something a little shorter in the $2.5MM range is also an option. Hayton has just this last season in terms of being a regular under his belt and could fit in a different category than this but his performance relative to draft stock has been concerning. He’s a prime candidate for a bridge contract and with fewer than 100 NHL games under his belt, he simply doesn’t have the leverage to command anything longer. A two-year deal around the $2MM range should be where his deal falls.
As for Brannstrom, he was billed as an offensive defender but has yet to be able to produce with any consistency since joining Ottawa back in 2019. He has just two career goals in 116 career games but that hasn’t stopped his camp from seeking a multi-year agreement in negotiations which are likely playing a role in this delay. Sandin could also fit in a different category but the 2018 first-rounder has exhausted his waiver exemption and doesn’t appear to be a fit in their top six next season. His agent recently bemoaned the lack of progress in negotiations. Teammate Timothy Liljegren’s two-year bridge deal that has a $1.4MM AAV seems like a reasonable comparable but with playing time being a potential concern, might Sandin be looking for more certainty before putting pen to paper on a new deal?
Young Regulars
Michael Anderson (Los Angeles), Alex Formenton (Ottawa), Nicolas Hague (Vegas)
Formenton played his first full NHL season in 2021-22 and it was a good one as the 22-year-old speedster chipped in with 18 goals and 14 assists in 78 games. The Sens have ample cap space this coming season so there are some options beyond the bridge contract. If GM Pierre Dorion thinks that Formenton is part of their long-term core, a longer-term pact that buys out a UFA year or two in the $3.5MM range might be a better way for them to go.
Hague has done well in a limited role on the back end for the Golden Knights over the past two seasons and is coming off a year where he logged close to 19 minutes a night. They’ve already spent most of the LTIR ‘savings’ so Vegas isn’t in a spot to give him a long-term deal. But is Hague better off taking a one-year contract that would be below market value to acquire arbitration eligibility next summer? Such a deal would be in the $1.25MM range with the promise of a better payout later on. Otherwise, a bridge pact that’s closer to $2MM is probably in the cards. Anderson has logged over 20 minutes a night for the Kings for the last two years but doesn’t have the offensive numbers to support a pricey bridge deal. Los Angeles’ cap space is quite limited so, like Hague, a one-year deal in the $1.25MM range might be where they wind up settling.
Not Fully Established
Sean Durzi (Los Angeles), Ryan McLeod (Edmonton)
McLeod figures to be a part of the long-term plans for the Oilers after a promising rookie campaign but doesn’t have much leverage at this point. Edmonton’s issue here is cap space as they’re already in a spot where they need to clear money out. If they can move someone out, a multi-year bridge contract becomes their preferred route but otherwise, he’s a strong candidate for a one-year deal around that $1.25MM threshold as well, perhaps a tad below that.
Durzi quietly put up 27 points in 64 games last season but it’s his only taste of NHL action so the track record isn’t strong enough to command a sizable contract. A two-year bridge deal makes a lot of sense for him as a repeat performance over that stretch would have him well-positioned to seek $4MM or more two summers from now. However, with the cap situation for the Kings, they might be forced to push for the one-year, ‘prove it’ contract that would fall in the same range as Anderson.
What’s The Holdup?
Cayden Primeau (Montreal), Adam Ruzicka (Calgary), Parker Wotherspoon (NY Islanders)
Ruzicka played in 28 games last season for the Flames and did reasonably well with ten points but it’s not as if he’s in a position to command a sizable raise. He’s waiver-eligible but not a guarantee to be claimed if he passes through. The holdup might be along the lines of making next season a one-way or two-way contract with any subsequent season(s) being a one-way agreement. Even so, it’s odd this is taking so long.
Wotherspoon’s presence on here is arguably the most perplexing of the bunch. He opted to not file for salary arbitration which would have gotten him signed weeks ago. He has cleared waivers in each of the last two seasons and has yet to play an NHL game. Haggling over NHL money would be pointless as a result so accordingly, it’s safe to suggest his NHL pay would be $750K. At this point, AHL salary or guaranteed money is the only sticking point. In all likelihood, the gap probably can’t be more than around $25K which is a pretty small one to justify being unsigned this long.
Primeau is coming off a strong showing in the AHL playoffs but struggled mightily in limited NHL action with the Canadiens last season. Even so, he’s viewed as their potential backup of the future as soon as 2023-24 when he becomes waiver-eligible. This is a contract that should be a two-way pact next season and then one-way after that as a result and there are enough of those comparable contracts around the league for young goalies that the general framework should basically have been in place before talks even started. As a result, this is another case that feels like it should have been resolved weeks ago.
There’s still plenty of time to work something out with training camps still a couple of weeks away and several of these players should come off the board by then but there will likely be a handful still unsigned when camps get underway.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.