Pacific Notes: Moore, Samorukov, Keeper
Trevor Moore was one of the bright spots for the Kings last season as he broke out with 48 points in 81 after putting up 41 in his first 123 NHL contests. He’s under contract for the upcoming season at a below-market $1.875MM and is eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer for the first time. Eric Stephens of The Athletic suggests (subscription link) that if the team feels that this type of production is a sign of things to come, offering the 27-year-old a shorter-term extension in the $3MM range might be enough to get something done. The UFA market hasn’t been kind to middle-six wingers lately and Moore’s limited track record at this point doesn’t help from a leverage standpoint so that type of offer might be good enough to get him to commit early.
More from the Pacific Division:
- Dmitri Samorukov’s NHL debut with the Oilers last season was one to forget. He played 2:28 of the first period, was on the ice for two goals allowed, and then was on the bench the rest of the way before being quickly sent down to the minors. However, Bruce McCurdy of the Edmonton Journal points out that despite the fact that his NHL experience is limited to that one appearance, Edmonton might be hesitant to try to sneak the 23-year-old through waivers next month in training camp. After all, young defensemen with some size at a low price tag ($775K) are often appealing to rebuilding teams which could result in him breaking camp with the team over someone like Philip Broberg who remains waiver-exempt.
- Canucks defenseman Brady Keeper has fully recovered from the broken leg he sustained back in training camp, notes Patrick Johnston of the Vancouver Province. The 26-year-old signed with Vancouver as an unrestricted free agent last summer and had a chance to push for a spot on the roster but instead, he wound up missing the entire year. Depending on Tucker Poolman’s availability, Keeper could have a chance to push for the sixth or seventh spot on the back end in training camp.
Extension Candidate: Bo Horvat
One down, one to go. That’s the situation that the Canucks find themselves in when it comes to their impact 2023 unrestricted free agents. J.T. Miller is now off the board after signing a seven-year, $56MM extension on Friday which allows them to now turn their focus to re-signing captain Bo Horvat.
It’s telling that while Miller had been in all sorts of trade speculation in the days, weeks, and even months leading up to his eventual extension, it has been the exact opposite for Horvat. There has long been an expectation that the two sides would work something out and discussions are ongoing according to Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre. But what might a new deal look like?
2021-22
Horvat quietly is coming off a career year in the goal department, surpassing the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career. It didn’t affect his defensive game too much as he still took a regular turn on the penalty kill, logged nearly 20 minutes per night, and won the sixth-most faceoffs in the league. Notably, over the final six weeks of the season when Vancouver was in the midst of trying to pull off quite the second-half comeback to get into the playoffs, Horvat was better than a point-per-game player, showing an ability to step up in crucial moments. While they ultimately fell a little short of achieving that goal, it certainly wasn’t his fault while the improved production under Bruce Boudreau creates some optimism for what’s to come.
Statistics
2021-22: 70 GP, 31 goals, 21 assists, 52 points, +3 rating, 40 PIMS, 194 shots, 57.0% faceoffs, 19:31 ATOI
Career: 572 GP, 170 goals, 196 assists, 366 points, -68 rating, 188 PIMS, 1,294 shots, 53.6% faceoffs, 18:20 ATOI
The Market
Center has always been the premium position among the three forward spots with the extra responsibilities that are always placed on a middleman. Horvat has more than handled those challenges well and certainly isn’t the type of player that a team could think about moving to the wing. Plain and simple, he’s a center and top centers get paid big bucks in free agency or, at least, when they become eligible for free agency.
Last season was basically a continuation of what Horvat has been in his career. He doesn’t necessarily produce like a number one center does but with all of the other elements he brings to the table, he gets to the level of a low-end number one or a high-end number two. There is enough of an established marketplace for players like that to get a reasonable idea of what Horvat’s next deal is going to cost.
Comparable Contracts
Sean Couturier (Philadelphia) signed an eight-year, $62MM extension ($7.75MM AAV) a little over a year ago in the same spot that Horvat is now, a year away from UFA eligibility. From a points-per-game perspective, they’re nearly identical (.638 for Couturier, .639 for Horvat) while both players have averaged close to 20 minutes per game in recent seasons while playing in all situations. Couturier’s top offensive years have been better than Horvat’s which is worth noting although Horvat will be beginning his next deal at 28, one year younger than Couturier.
Brayden Schenn (St. Louis) is playing on an eight-year, $52MM deal ($6.5MM AAV) that was signed back in 2019. His five-on-five production has been quite close to Horvat over the past few seasons but it’s worth noting that he doesn’t have the same defensive responsibilities that Horvat does. The current-day equivalent of this contract is $6.584MM and with the extra roles that Horvat has, it’s safe to pencil this contract in as the floor when it comes to extension discussions.
Kevin Hayes (Philadelphia) received a bigger contract than many expected back in 2019 when he signed for seven years and $50MM ($7.142MM AAV). He was coming off a career-best 55 points that summer and also was an all-situations player that often was on the second line offensively like Horvat. Since then, his production has tapered off so Horvat’s camp would likely be looking to come in higher than this rate. From a cap percentage perspective, a deal equal to this is worth just over $7.4MM per season today.
Tomas Hertl (San Jose) signed his extension last season, one that was worth $65.1MM over eight years ($8.1375MM AAV). He’s the same age Horvat is now and only has one more 30-goal season that Horvat does. The two were used very similarly last season and Hertl’s career point per game average (.661) is quite close to Horvat’s. Some feel that this was an overpayment on the part of the Sharks but that doesn’t matter for Horvat’s camp who will undoubtedly be using this deal as a comparable in negotiations. This is the high end of the scale for where his next contract should fall.
Dylan Larkin (Detroit) is also one to watch for but we don’t know his next contract yet as he’s in the same situation as Horvat. The two are fairly similar – Larkin is a bit more productive, Horvat more involved defensively – and whichever one doesn’t sign first will quite likely be looking at the contract of the one that does sign as a viable comparable.
Projected Contract
Based on the above comparables, something above the current equivalent of Hayes’ deal and a little below Couturier’s appears to be a reasonable sweet spot for an agreement. That would put the AAV in the $7.5MM (or slightly higher) range and he should be able to command a max-term agreement, either an eight-year one with Vancouver or a seven-year one elsewhere.
The big question that Canucks GM Patrik Allvin will have to ponder is whether they can afford Horvat’s next deal in their cap structure. Miller checks in at $8MM on his new deal which pushes their commitment in 2023-24 to nearly $69MM to 14 players. The Upper Limit is only expected to go up to $83.5MM for 2024-24 so Horvat would be taking up close to 60% of their remaining space. Fitting everyone else in would be a challenge.
Vancouver also has to keep in mind that Elias Pettersson’s qualifying offer two years from now is $8.82MM (120% of his $7.35MM cap hit). While Pettersson has spent a lot of time on the wing, he’s also a natural center and spending over $24MM on three centers could be a luxury that they can’t afford. That shouldn’t affect Horvat’s specific situation unless he’s willing to leave money on the table to stay but they’ll be factoring in their own cap situation in discussions with their captain over the coming weeks and months.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Central Notes: Robertson, Blackhawks, Kayumov
There has been a greater emphasis on paying young stars big money early in recent years and it would appear that at least one team owner isn’t a fan of that. Speaking on the Cam and Strick Podcast (audio link) earlier this week, Stars owner Tom Gaglardi lamented the current contract landscape across the league:
A kid in the third year of his entry-level (deal) puts up 40 goals and now he wants to make $7 million. If you want term with that player, he’s going to take you higher than that. … The stars are taking all the money, and the guys in the middle are getting squeezed.
I think there’s a lot of players in the league making a million dollars who are better players, and then the guys who can put the puck in the net are getting too big a piece of the pie. … I don’t like it, but that’s the market, and that’s the way it works.
While not naming him specifically, it’s quite clear that the 40-goal player he’s referencing is Jason Robertson who led the Stars with 41 goals in 74 games last season. If the asking price on a short-term deal is in the $7MM range as Gaglardi suggests, Dallas will almost certainly have to do a bridge deal to get the 23-year-old under contract without having to part with another player. They have a little over $6.3MM in projected room at the moment, per CapFriendly, but that could jump closer to $7.5MM if Anton Khudobin is healthy and is sent to the minors.
Elsewhere in the Central Division:
- There is some uncertainty on the injury front for the Blackhawks with training camps just a few weeks away. GM Kyle Davidson told Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times that they are still waiting for a firm update on the status of forward Jujhar Khaira who underwent back surgery back in February. At the time, he was supposed to be away from hockey activities for 10-12 weeks so the fact that his availability is still in question would suggest that there has been a setback. The 28-year-old had three goals in 27 games in his first season with the Blackhawks. Davidson also indicated that there are a couple of other players that they’re waiting for information on regarding their availability for the start of camp but didn’t identify who those players will be.
- Still with Chicago, the Blackhawks were hoping to sign prospect Artur Kayumov this summer, reports Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription link). However, the 24-year-old winger opted to remain with Yaroslavl of the KHL citing family reasons as he signed a one-year deal to stay there instead. Kayumov had 19 points in 42 games last season and his agent indicated that there’s a chance he could sign with the Blackhawks following the KHL campaign.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Seattle Kraken
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Seattle Kraken
Current Cap Hit: $81,489,166 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Matthew Beniers (two years, $897.5K)
F Shane Wright (three years, $950K)
Potential Bonuses
Beniers: $925K
Wright: $3.0625MM
Total: $3.9875MM
Beniers was the second-overall selection last year and had a dominant year at Michigan before making the jump to the pros where he averaged just shy of a point per game down the stretch. He should become their top center within the next couple of seasons and with it, a long-term deal in the $8MM range could be on the table based on recent comparable signings. With his expected role, he should reach his bonuses this season which will need to be factored into their cap plans. Wright slipped to fourth overall last month after being the consensus number one for a lot of the last two seasons but has been billed as being NHL-ready. They’ll be able to ease him in which could result in some lower production at the beginning although it shouldn’t affect his second contract that much unless he’s in a limited role longer than expected.
Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level
D William Borgen ($900K, RFA)
F Ryan Donato ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Joonas Donskoi ($3.9MM, UFA)
D Vince Dunn ($4MM, RFA)
F Morgan Geekie ($1.4MM, RFA)
F John Hayden ($750K, UFA)
F Karson Kuhlman ($825K, UFA)
G Martin Jones ($2MM, UFA)
F Kole Lind ($825K, RFA)
D Carson Soucy ($2.75MM, UFA)
Donskoi was one of Seattle’s higher-profile pickups in expansion but struggled considerably last season, scoring just twice in 75 games. While it’s likely that he’ll rebound to an extent, he’ll be hard-pressed to get more than about two-thirds of his current cost unless he has a career year. Geekie’s first full NHL season was a decent one as he acquitted himself in somewhat of a limited role while being their best player at the faceoff dot. Even in a bottom-six role, there’s some room for him to pass the $2MM mark next summer. Donato returned after being non-tendered to avoid salary arbitration and while he is coming off a career year, the fact he wasn’t able to do better than this on the open market doesn’t bode well for his odds next summer. Lind, Kuhlman, and Hayden will be battling for the final forward spot or two on the roster but are unlikely to command much more than their current rates unless one of them can step into a legitimate full-time role.
GM Ron Francis felt that Dunn would be able to stand out more with a bigger role and he did just that, tying his career-high in points while setting a new benchmark in assists. Another showing like that could push him past the $5MM mark next summer in his final season of RFA eligibility. Soucy wasn’t able to land in Seattle’s top four very often last year but that didn’t stop him from showing off an improved offensive element to his game as he scored ten goals which is two more than the previous two years combined. With the size he also brings, a repeat performance could allow him to generate a strong market that could push his AAV into the $3MM range despite being a third-pairing piece which is an area teams often try to save money in. For Soucy, they might make an exception. Borgen was a frequent healthy scratch last season which certainly wasn’t the Kraken debut he was hoping for. A similar role could have him in non-tender territory next summer while if he does lock down a spot on the third pairing, a one-year deal at a small raise might be the route Seattle opts to take.
Jones is coming off another quiet year with the Flyers and has failed to post a save percentage above .900 over the last four seasons. Despite that, Seattle opted for him as their backup goaltender for the upcoming campaign but at some point, it stands to reason that another below-average performance will push him down closer to the $1MM mark next summer.
Signed Through 2023-24
G Chris Driedger ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Justin Schultz ($3MM, UFA)
F Alexander Wennberg ($4.5MM, UFA)
Eberle’s first season with Seattle saw him play a similar role to the one that he had with the Islanders so it’s not surprising that his production was largely in line with his performance with New York. It’s an output that isn’t quite worth $5.5MM but if he can stay around the 20-goal mark for the next couple of seasons, he should be able to land somewhat close to this on his next deal. Wennberg wasn’t quite able to replicate the production he had with the Panthers but his output at the center position is worth close to his current rate compared to the open market. However, with Beniers and Wright around, can he get those numbers again? That will dictate a lot when it comes to his next contract as to whether a small raise could be had or a sizable drop.
Schultz comes over from Washington where he’s coming off a quiet year offensively by his standards which made this commitment a bit surprising. He should have an opportunity to play a bigger role offensively which could help but even so, he’ll be 34 when his next contract starts so it’d be hard to foresee a big raise on the horizon.
Driedger had a tough first season with the Kraken although he still managed a save percentage of .899, the best on the team. His second year will be even tougher as an ACL tear suffered at the Worlds will cost him the majority of next season. Suffice it to say, there will be a lot at stake in 2023-24 when it comes to determining his next contract.
Signed Through 2024-25
F Yanni Gourde ($5.167MM, UFA)
D Adam Larsson ($4MM, UFA)
F Brandon Tanev ($3.5MM, UFA)
After a couple of quieter seasons with Tampa Bay, Gourde had a golden opportunity with Seattle last season as he was their all-situations top center. While his best success came in a lower role with the Lightning, Gourde adapted quite well to being a go-to player and finished second on the team in scoring. Again, Beniers and eventually Wright will cut into his playing time but for now, this contract is one of Seattle’s better ones. Tanev was limited to just 32 games last season due to a knee injury but was quite effective over the first couple of months of the season. His contract has long been viewed as above-market after Pittsburgh signed him for six years at his current price but if he stays near that half a point per game mark while playing his usual strong defensive and physical game, the Kraken will do well with this contract.
Larsson was one of two veteran defensemen to eschew a chance at testing the open market last summer to instead sign a long-term deal with Seattle. In his case, he received a much bigger role than he was accustomed to with Edmonton which helped him set a new career-best in points. In the process, he established himself as still being capable of being a second or third defender. That’s not the most optimal role for him and he wouldn’t be in that role on a top team but any time a team can get a second or third blueliner for this much money, it’s one that they’re going to be quite happy with. That said, even if he stays in that role for three more years, it’s unlikely the open market will view him at that level.
Snapshots: Wild, Kraken Captaincy, Halbgewachs
While Minnesota freed up $2.25MM in cap space today with the trade of defenseman Dmitry Kulikov to Anaheim, don’t expect that money to be spent right away. GM Bill Guerin told Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription link) that while he wouldn’t rule out using it on a free agent, it’s unlikely that he’ll opt to do so. Guerin felt that the Wild needed more cap space and while they’re shown as having a little over $5.7MM in room right now per CapFriendly, that figure has them with a minimum-sized roster which is likely to change. But even with adding a couple of players to that current projection, Minnesota will be well-positioned from a cap perspective to make additions to their roster in-season and will have some room to work with if injuries arise. It may not seem like much but that’s a cap situation that many teams would like to have right about now.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- Last season, the Kraken had Mark Giordano as their inaugural captain but that post has been vacant since the veteran was moved to Toronto at the trade deadline. GM Ron Francis told Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times that he’ll sit down with head coach Dave Hakstol to decide if they even want to name a captain this season and that if they do, they’ll likely wait to see how training camp goes before making a decision. Veterans Yanni Gourde, Jordan Eberle, and Adam Larsson would be candidates for the captaincy if they do decide to name one for 2022-23.
- Free agent winger Jayden Halbgewachs has drawn interest from MoDo in Sweden, sports director Henrik Gradin acknowledged to Ornskoldsviks Allehanda. The 25-year-old is coming off a productive year with AHL San Jose where he had 41 points in 59 games while also getting into three games with the Sharks, picking up his first career point. While he’s the type of player that would typically generate a fair bit of interest on a two-way deal, heading overseas to play in a top league there might ultimately help his value in the long run if he was to get back to being a top scorer as he was back in junior.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: San Jose Sharks
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
San Jose Sharks
Current Cap Hit: $82,362,501 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Thomas Bordeleau (two years, $917K)
F William Eklund (three years, $894K)
F Scott Reedy (one year, $843K)
Potential Bonuses
Eklund: $850K
Reedy: $82.5K
Totals: $932.5K
All three of these players are likely to spend some time at both the NHL and AHL levels. Reedy is the most experienced of the three after spending half of last season with the Sharks in a depth role but he’s the type of player that next summer will be looking at taking less than his qualifying offer in exchange for a higher AHL pay (or a one-way deal). His bonuses are based on games played so some might be achievable. If Eklund can lock down a full-time spot in training camp, he’ll have a chance at hitting some of his ‘A’ bonuses but, like Bordeleau, he’s probably better off playing top minutes in the minors over a lesser role in the NHL. With both having very limited NHL experience, it’s too early to forecast their next contracts but both players figure to be big parts of San Jose’s future plans.
Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level
F Nick Bonino ($2.05MM, UFA)
F Jonah Gadjovich ($750K, RFA)
F Noah Gregor ($950K, RFA)
D Nikolai Knyzhov ($850K, RFA)
F Timo Meier ($6MM, RFA)
F Matt Nieto ($850K, UFA)
D Markus Nutivaara ($1.5MM, UFA)
G James Reimer ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Jeffrey Viel ($750K, RFA)
Potential Bonuses:
Nutivaara: $250K
Meier’s contract is a by-product of what teams expected the financial picture to look like at this time, one that featured some significant increases to the Upper Limit. The heavily back-loaded structure sees him carry a $10MM salary this season which also represents his qualifying offer next summer; while the new CBA put in the 120% of AAV cap (unofficially thought by some as the Meier Rule), contracts signed before that time like his aren’t subjected to it. Under the projected future cap from a few years ago, a $10MM price point for a top-line winger would have been high but probably reasonable but now, it’s certainly on the high side. It’s unlikely San Jose would non-tender him next summer even at that price tag but they’ll be wanting him to leave a bit of money on the table from an AAV perspective on a long-term extension.
Bonino has scored at least 10 goals in six straight years and eight of the past nine while winning faceoffs at an above-average rate. That combination makes him a bottom-six fit for several teams so he should have a decent-sized market next summer at a similar price point to this. Gregor spent most of last season with the Sharks and acquitted himself well but San Jose’s cap situation basically forced a one-year deal. He’ll have arbitration eligibility next summer and should add at least a few hundred thousand to his price tag. Nieto, Gadjovich, and Viel are all role players that are likely to come in below $1MM on their next contracts.
Nutivaara is coming off a season that limited him to just a single appearance due to a lower-body injury but has a track record of being a serviceable third-pairing player. He’ll max out on his bonuses at 60 games played and if he’s able to suit up that many times, he’ll have a stronger market and a chance to earn a bit more next summer. Knyzhov missed last season due to a core muscle injury and tore his Achilles tendon in offseason training earlier this month which will cause him to miss at least the first half of the season. He’s a capable young defender but these injuries will limit him to another short-term, low-cost contract.
Reimer will be the second goaltender next season after Adin Hill was moved to Vegas earlier this week. The 34-year-old got the bulk of the starts in 2021-22 and did alright considering how much the team struggled. A similar showing this season would put him in line for at least a small raise as the cost for quality veteran backups continues to rise.
Signed Through 2023-24
F Alexander Barabanov ($2.5MM, UFA)
G Kaapo Kahkonen ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Luke Kunin ($2.75MM, RFA)
F Kevin Labanc ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Oskar Lindblom ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Jaycob Megna ($763K, UFA)
F Steven Lorentz ($1.05MM, UFA)
D Radim Simek ($2.25MM, UFA)
Labanc’s contract is basically the reward he received for taking a significantly below-market contract back in 2019 to help with San Jose’s cap situation at that time. Things have not gone well since then as he has battled injuries and struggled to produce. At this point, his market value two years from now might be half of his current cost. Barabanov quietly finished fifth on the Sharks in scoring last season with 39 points and this deal represents a lower-risk commitment to see if it was a fluke or a sign of things to come.
Kunin and Lindblom are newcomers that have shown flashes of upside but haven’t been able to put it together consistently. Kunin’s cost is a bit high relative to his production but power forwards often get more than market value while Lindblom hasn’t been the same since returning from his bout with cancer which resulted in the Flyers buying him out this summer. Both are on placeholder deals to see how they’ll fit on a new team and to give the top prospects like Eklund and Bordeleau time to develop. If things go well, small raises could come their way. Lorentz comes over from Carolina and is a fourth liner that the Sharks feel might be able to play higher in the lineup. That will need to happen for him to have a chance at a notable raise next summer.
Simek hardly played last season and doesn’t appear to be part of their plans on the back end beyond a depth spot. However, this isn’t a particularly ideal market for cutting salary so it’s unlikely that San Jose will be able to move him. Unless he can lock down a regular role, his next contract will be closer to half of what he’s getting now. Megna is a serviceable depth defender at the league minimum for two years and if he can play on the third pairing most nights, he’ll have a shot at a small raise in 2024. Notably for him, this contract is his first one-way pact after four straight two-way deals.
Kahkonen was brought over from Minnesota at the trade deadline with the hopes that he can be San Jose’s starter of the future. However, a limited track record made a long-term deal very difficult to work out so they effectively settled on another bridge contract. If he can prove he’s a starter-caliber goalie, doubling his current AAV is achievable but if he proves to be more of a platoon option, his next deal will likely be in the $3MM range.
Signed Through 2024-25
F Nico Sturm ($2MM, UFA)
Sturm started his pro career late after going through college first and basically only has the last two seasons as a regular player where his role has been somewhat limited. Clearly, the Sharks believe there’s some upside that will justify the three-year commitment and if he’s able to produce closer to the 30-35-point mark, they’ll do well with this contract.
Keith Yandle Unsure About Playing This Season
When last season ended, Keith Yandle’s ironman streak had come to an end and after being a healthy scratch down the stretch, it seemed like the 35-year-old was going to be calling it a career. However, his agent Jerry Buckley told ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski that the veteran hasn’t decided whether or not he wants to play this season and that teams are in discussions with him about the defenseman.
Yandle is coming off a tough 2021-22 campaign. After Florida bought him out last July, he signed with Philadelphia where the expectation was that he’d help boost their production from the back end. Unfortunately for them, that didn’t happen. Instead, he managed just a single goal in 77 games along with 18 assists, his worst output since his rookie year back in 2007-08. While plus/minus doesn’t carry the value it once did, it’s worth noting that he was -47 which was the lowest in the NHL.
At first glance, Yandle would be a prime candidate for a PTO deal as many veterans will be settling for over the next couple of weeks to ensure they’ll be at a training camp. However, Buckley indicated that it’s unlikely that the blueliner would be willing to go that route and that not having a contract to start the season wouldn’t automatically mean that his career would be over. Instead, he would be looking for the right fit.
With over 1,100 career regular season games and 619 points under his belt, Yandle has had quite a successful career, especially considering he was a fourth-round pick back in 2005. We’ll see over the coming weeks if he’s able to find the right fit to play a 17th NHL season.
Five Key Stories: 8/22/22 – 8/28/22
The final full week of August often marks the start of the final push to get contracts done with training camps now just a few weeks away. That was indeed the case from the past seven days as the majority of the top stories were on the signing front although there was a notable one on the business side of things as well.
Bridge For Zadina: With Filip Zadina having another up and down season with Detroit last season, a bridge deal was expected. In the end, that’s what he received as he inked a three-year deal that carries a $1.825MM AAV. The sixth-overall pick in 2018, Zadina had 10 goals and 14 assists in 74 games with the Red Wings last season which isn’t where he was supposed to be after being a top scorer in junior. This deal gives Detroit a chance to continue to bring him along slowly and evaluate him at a relatively low cost. The 22-year-old will still have one year of RFA eligibility remaining at the end of this contract and will be owed a $2.19MM qualifying offer along with salary arbitration rights.
Texier Won’t Play With Columbus: After being granted a leave of absence for the final two months of 2021-22 following the deaths of two family members, it was expected that Blue Jackets forward Alexandre Texier would be back in the lineup with Columbus next season. However, that won’t be the case as instead, the team announced that the 22-year-old won’t join the team at all next season. Instead, an agreement has been worked out between Columbus, Texier, the NHL, and the NHLPA which will result in Texier being suspended for the season while allowing him to sign a one-year deal with Zurich of the Swiss NLA to play closer to home. The Blue Jackets won’t incur any salary cap charges for Texier next season while the one year remaining on his contract is expected to roll over to 2023-24.
Stastny To Hurricanes: With Max Pacioretty heading for LTIR for most of the season, Carolina had the ability to use some of his cap hit to look for a replacement player. They did just that as they signed veteran center Paul Stastny to a one-year, $1.5MM contract that also contains $500K in bonuses if the Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup. The 36-year-old is coming off a quality season in Winnipeg that saw him record 21 goals and 24 assists in 71 games and certainly left money on the table to join Carolina. He will give them a quality backup plan if Jesperi Kotkaniemi isn’t ready to move into the center spot on the second line following the departure of Vincent Trocheck and with 103 career playoff games under his belt, he’ll be one of their most experienced postseason performers.
Islanders Sign Three: The Islanders took care of their NHL restricted free agents as they announced new deals for winger Kieffer Bellows plus defensemen Alexander Romanov and Noah Dobson. Bellows received a one-year, $1.2MM deal on the heels of a 19-point season, his first with regular NHL action. Romanov, meanwhile, inked a three-year contract that carries a $2.5MM AAV. He was New York’s big acquisition this summer after being acquired at the draft from Montreal along with a fourth-round selection in exchange for their first-round pick and will be tasked with locking down a spot in their top four. As for Dobson, his contract was also for three years at a $4MM AAV. He is coming off a breakout year that saw him put up 51 points in 80 games while logging over 21 minutes a night. While the cap hit is certainly a bargain for that production, the term of the deal takes him a year away from UFA eligibility which does carry some risk.
Kessel To Vegas: Phil Kessel will take aim at the NHL ironman record in the opening month of the season as a member of the Golden Knights after Vegas signed him to a one-year, $1.5MM deal. The 34-year-old had just eight goals with Arizona last season but still managed 44 assists. The Golden Knights lost some offensive depth on the wing with the departures of Max Pacioretty, Evgenii Dadonov, and Mattias Janmark so Kessel will help to replace some of that lost offense. In order to afford him, they are dipping into the cap space freed up following the loss of Robin Lehner and his $5MM AAV for all of next season following hip surgery.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Los Angeles Kings
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Los Angeles Kings
Current Cap Hit: $80,986,667 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Tobias Bjornfot (one year, $894K)
F Quinton Byfield (two years, $894K)
F Arthur Kaliyev (two years, $894K)
F Rasmus Kupari (one year, $863K)
D Jordan Spence (two years, $820K)
Potential Bonuses
Bjornfot: $262.5K
Byfield: $2.65MM
Kaliyev: $150K
Kupari: $350K
Spence: $82.5K
Total: $3.495MM
Kailyev had a decent first full NHL season, notching 27 points in 80 games in a limited role. He’s likely to remain in the bottom six for a little while yet which will likely have him trending towards a bridge contract in 2024, one that would still more than double his current price tag. Byfield, the second-overall pick in 2019, had a quiet rookie year and is unlikely to play any higher than the third line with the veterans ahead of him on the depth chart. Accordingly, a big-ticket contract isn’t coming his way in two years’ time; both sides will want a short-term pact. Kupari was a serviceable checking forward last season which isn’t bad but they’re hoping for more offensively from him. A similar showing this season will put his bridge contract in the $1.5MM range.
Bjornfot was a fixture on the third pairing for most of last season and it will be interesting to see if head coach Todd McLellan pushes him a little higher in 2022-23. His limited offensive upside will limit his earnings potential (especially if they try to work out a long-term deal) but he’ll have a shot at doubling his price tag next summer. Spence could be a waiver-exemption roster casualty in camp but after logging nearly 20 minutes a game in limited action last season, he has earned a longer look. It’s a bit early to forecast his next deal but as someone that was quite productive in the minors and did well in his first NHL stint, he’s someone that could be poised for a considerable jump on his second deal.
Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level
F Jaret Anderson-Dolan ($750K, RFA)
F Lias Andersson ($750K, RFA)
D Alex Edler ($750K, UFA)
F Brendan Lemieux ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Trevor Moore ($1.875MM, UFA)
G Jonathan Quick ($5.8MM, UFA)
F Gabriel Vilardi ($825K, RFA)
F Austin Wagner ($1.133MM, RFA)
Potential Bonuses
Edler: $750K
Moore is coming off a breakout year that saw him more than double his previous career-high in points while establishing himself as a fixture on the second line. At this point, both sides will want to see how things go next year; a repeat performance could put him closer to the $3.5MM to $4MM mark while a dip closer to his career averages would knock at least a million off of that range. Lemieux quickly re-signed after being non-tendered but will need to establish himself as more than just a fourth-line energy winger if he wants an opportunity to really get to that next salary tier. Wagner spent all of last season in the minors but could be back on the fourth line at some point. Otherwise, all but $8.3K can be buried in AHL Ontario if he clears waivers again.
Among the younger forwards, Vilardi was quite productive with AHL Ontario last season but didn’t produce much with the Kings, just seven points in 25 games. That got him a one-year bridge deal. At this point, he’s likely to break camp as he’s now waiver-eligible but this could be a make-or-break year with several other youngsters in the pipeline. Andersson and Anderson-Dolan are in similar situations, players who are also now waiver-eligible and haven’t produced much to date in the NHL. Until they can establish themselves as regulars, they’ll be going year-to-year on their deals.
Edler was once again limited due to injuries last season but he did well in a supporting role when he was in there, resulting in a one-year extension. At 36 and with his injury history, he’ll be going year-to-year on similarly-structured deals for the rest of his career.
Quick has been a fixture between the pipes for the Kings for more than a decade. Heading into last season, his contract looked like a considerable overpayment for someone that was expected to be pushed down into the second-string role. However, he then went out and became the 1A option once again which changes the outlook of his contract considerably. Quick will be 37 when his next contract is signed so he will likely be going year to year moving forward but if he can even keep a grab of a platoon spot, he should have some interest on the open market in the $3.5MM range next summer. Will he be willing to leave Los Angeles, however? That one remains to be seen.
Signed Through 2023-24
F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Carl Grundstrom ($1.35MM, RFA)
F Anze Kopitar ($10MM, UFA)
F Blake Lizotte ($1.675MM, RFA)
D Jacob Moverare ($762.5K, RFA)
D Matt Roy ($3.125MM, UFA)
D Sean Walker ($2.65MM, UFA)
Kopitar has been the top center for the Kings for most of his 16-year career and even if he hasn’t produced at the level of a high-end pivot, his defensive play has made him a true number one. However, he’ll be 37 two years from now and the days of him logging over 20 minutes a night should be done by then. His next contract could very well be his last and should be either two or three years with an AAV closer to the $6MM mark as long as he can still play at a second-line level by the end of the 2023-24 campaign.
A new team was just what Arvidsson needed as he had a nice bounce-back year after a pair of quiet seasons at the end of his tenure with Nashville. He fit in nicely on the second line, one that was very effective defensively, good offensively, and carried plenty of possession. Continuing that combination for the next two seasons would give him a good chance of adding another million or so on his next contract. Lizotte just wrapped his first full NHL season on the third line which understandably resulted in a short-term second contract. He’ll need to establish himself as capable of playing a bit more than 12 minutes a night by 2024 as otherwise, he could be one of those arbitration risks that teams are opting to walk away from more frequently. Grundstrom has provided the Kings with plenty of physicality, albeit in a limited role and with the look of their roster right now, his short-term fortune isn’t likely to change. That could put him in the same situation Lemieux was last month, getting non-tendered to avoid arbitration.
Roy has never been a particularly flashy defenseman which is what made this deal – originally a four-year pact – a bit of a head-scratcher at the time. However, he continues to be a reliable role player and he stepped up quite nicely when injuries arose last season. As is the case with Bjornfot, his limited offensive upside will limit the price tag of his next contract but there’s room for him to add a little more to his current AAV. Walker missed all but six games last season due to a knee injury and has been used as a fifth defenseman when he has played over the last couple of years. As teams look to trim costs by going with more cost-effective depth players, that could be a challenge for Walker unless he can step into a top-four role. Moverare is now waiver-eligible and with him signed for two years at the minimum, he’s a risk to be claimed off waivers so he’ll likely enter the season as their seventh defenseman although that’s not great from the perspective of his next contract.
Signed Through 2024-25
F Alex Iafallo ($4MM, UFA)
G Calvin Petersen ($5MM, UFA)
Iafallo is the ideal winger in the sense that can play different roles and succeed in all of them. That type of versatility can be quite valuable to a team and he has done well in that role with the Kings. On the other hand, with some wingers feeling the pinch in recent UFA contracts, this also now looks like a bit of an above-market contract. The financial landscape should change by the time this deal is up though so the valuation of the contract might be different a couple of years from now.
Petersen signed this contract a year ago as an extension to his now-expired deal so this will be his first year with the weight of expectations that a deal like this carries. Instead of being a second option making less than a typical backup, he’s now tied for 14th in AAV among all NHL goaltenders despite having just 91 career regular season games under his belt. If he can wrestle back the starting role and play 50-55 games a season, they’ll get good enough value out of this deal but that’s a bigger question mark now than it was a year ago.
Examining Trade Options For San Jose’s Goalie Surplus
Generally speaking, extra depth is rarely a bad thing to have. That extra impact forward, carrying more than four top-four defensemen, these are often elements of successful teams. But that same argument doesn’t apply to goaltending as almost all of the time, carrying three is seen as less than ideal and teams will often move their extra option before too long.
San Jose is presently an exception to that idea as they’re carrying three NHL goaltenders in Kaapo Kahkonen, Adin Hill, and James Reimer. All three are on short-term deals (Reimer and Hill have one year left and Kahkonen two) and all three make between $2.1MM and $2.75MM. At least from a contract standpoint, they’re more or less interchangeable.
But Kahkonen was brought in from Minnesota at the trade deadline and then given the two-year deal so it stands to reason that they don’t want to move him. That leaves the 26-year-old Hill and the 34-year-old Reimer as their two trade options with the latter only making $75K more than the former. The Sharks might prefer to keep the younger Hill but his trade value might be better depending on who shows interest.
With that in mind, let’s examine some of the teams that might be interested in adding one of San Jose’s netminders even with most of the goalie movement being done for the summer.
Arizona
The Coyotes know they don’t have their backup goalie on the roster yet. Karel Vejmelka is unproven as a starter so adding a second netminder that could play close to half the games wouldn’t hurt. Yes, they’re a team with an eye on the future but they can still try to lose competitively. Would they trade for Hill after moving him to San Jose just over a year ago or would they prefer Reimer? If not one of them, they’ll be watching the waiver wire in October.
Minnesota
There isn’t a true opening with Marc-Andre Fleury as the starter and Filip Gustavsson as the backup but Gustavsson is coming off a tough 2021-22 campaign with Ottawa. Playing Fleury heavy minutes would carry some risk so while Gustavsson is the backup of the future, GM Bill Guerin might want to assess if they’d be better off with a more reliable second option even if it forces them to turn around and carry three goalies with Gustavsson now being waiver-eligible.
Philadelphia
Back in May, it looked like the Flyers had their goalie situation figured out as they were able to sign highly-touted prospect Ivan Fedotov to partner up with Carter Hart. However, the netminder is now serving in the Russian military which will take him out of the equation. Felix Sandstrom is likely next in line but has just five career NHL appearances under his belt. Philadelphia is looking for more short-term success so adding a more proven backup is something GM Chuck Fletcher will likely be looking into.
Vegas
Following the season-ending hip surgery for Robin Lehner, GM Kelly McCrimmon came out and said his intention is to go with Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit as their tandem. Thompson has shown promise but his NHL experience is limited while Brossoit has been hit and miss in his career. If things don’t go well early on, they could look to turn to San Jose for a chance at an upgrade.
Washington
This might seem a little odd considering that they just signed Charlie Lindgren to a three-year deal to be Darcy Kuemper’s backup. But Lindgren’s cap hit is right at the line of being fully buriable in the minors if a better option presents itself. Their LTIR situation with Nicklas Backstrom gives them some extra flexibility to add a short-term deal so if they trust Reimer or Hill over a goalie that has just 29 games of NHL experience and finished up the AHL playoffs as the backup, GM Brian MacLellan will likely check in on what that upgrade would cost.
Winnipeg
They added David Rittich as a low-cost backup early in free agency, handing him a one-year, $900K contract. That can be fully buried in the minors if a better option presents itself. The Jets still have considerable cap space at their disposal and are a team with an eye on winning in the present so if they aren’t able to add at other positions, turning around and upgrading Connor Hellebuyck’s backup would be a reasonable backup plan.
Obviously, not all of these teams are going to make a move between the pipes in the coming weeks so the options for GM Mike Grier are going to be limited. If he wants to get top value – the asking price for Reimer is believed to be a second-round pick – he might have to wait until the season starts to see if injuries force someone’s hand. Otherwise, it will be a limited market for whichever one he decides to move. Surplus quality depth at most positions is usually a good thing and could yield a strong return in a trade but for goaltenders, it’s just not the case.