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Arbitration

Predators Avoid Arbitration With Petter Granberg

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According to Tim Wharnsby of CBC, the Nashville Predators have signed Petter Granberg to a two-year, two-way deal worth a total of $1.225MM. Granberg was set to go to an arbitration hearing on August 3rd, but will avoid the process now that he’s under contract.

Granberg, 23, was claimed by the Predators off waivers from the Toronto Maple Leafs last season after rehabbing a torn Achilles tendon suffered in training camp.  He played 27 games for the Predators last season, providing solid depth to an already incredibly talented blueline. Selected in the fourth round of the 2010 draft, Granberg is known for a stay-at-home defensive game that isn’t overly physical.

For the Predators, they’ll hope they can turn Granberg into a sound positional defenseman capable of logging some minutes on the bottom pairing, and perhaps some time on the penalty kill. He’ll go to camp battling fellow right-handed defenseman and recent signee Yannick Weber for a spot with the Preds to start the season.

(Current Predators Roster via Roster Resource)

Philadelphia Re-Signs Brandon Manning

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According to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, the Philadelphia Flyers have reached an agreement with their final arbitration-eligible player Brandon Manning on a two-year, $1.95MM deal. Tim Wharnsby of CBC breaks it down: 2016-17 $950K, 2017-18 $1MM.

After the Flyers got Brayden Schenn to sign a long-term deal, Manning was next on the docket and was headed to an arbitration hearing on August 2nd.

Manning made an impact on the Flyers lineup this season, getting into 56 games at the NHL level.  The 26-year old scored seven points and logged over 16 minutes a night in his first lengthy chance with the big club.

He’ll now head to camp looking to secure a bottom-pairing job and show that he’s advanced past the AHL level – where he has been spectacular, scoring 43 points in 60 games in 2014-15.

As with the Rangers, the Flyers will now receive a 48-hour buyout window after re-signing multiple arbitration cases. The team has under $500K left under the cap, but no one left to re-sign.

Danny DeKeyser Inks Six-Year Extension

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According to multiple reports, including James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail, the Detroit Red Wings have signed Danny DeKeyser to a six-year, $30MM extension ahead of his arbitration hearing set for Thursday. The young defenseman is thought of as an integral part of the Red Wings’ core, and will now be paid like one.

DeKeyser, 26, has been a regular on the Wings’ blueline for three seasons now, playing over twenty minutes a night and contributing at least 20 points each year. His best came in 2014-15, when he put up 31 points and had his best possession metrics of his career.

The Michigan native went undrafted before attending Western Michigan University, where he excelled over three seasons. Upon his exit from the NCAA, DeKeyser had many suitors, seen as a strong two-way option that could step into an NHL lineup immediately.  He proved that true when he signed with the Red Wings, getting into 11 games down the stretch in 2012-13.

While DeKeyser doesn’t get much love from the analytic community because of his relatively poor possession numbers, he does get continually praised from his coaching staff and front office, with former Red Wings head coach Mike Babcock referring to him as a “human eraser” and saying he’s an elite skater with an elite hockey mind.

Detroit now has six defensemen under contract for a total of $24.2MM next season. While they project to currently be over the salary cap, CapFriendly points out that the team still has the ability to sign Petr Mrazek because of the 10% overage a team can use before the end of training camp.  With the team set to take him to arbitration on Wednesday, they’ll try to get a contract on the books before any blood is spilled in the arbitration room.

(Detroit Red Wings Depth Charts via Roster Resource)

Arbitration Breakdown: Petr Mrazek

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The Red Wings and goaltender Petr Mrazek have exchanged their arbitration numbers in advance of Wednesday’s scheduled hearing and suffice it to say, there is quite a gap between the two sides.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Detroit has submitted a two year offer worth $2.7MM in year one and $3.15MM in year two.  Meanwhile, Mrazek has countered with a two year pact worth $5MM in both seasons.

[For more background on the arbitration process, consult Parts One and Two of our Capology 101: Arbitration series.]

Last season was a career year for the 24 year old Mrazek.  He became Detroit’s starting goalie for most of the year, playing in 54 games.  He compiled a 27-16-6 record with a 2.33 GAA and a .921 SV% with four shutouts.  Mrazek ranked in the top half league-wide in terms of wins (T-13th), GAA (13th), and SV% (T-10th) among goalies that played at least 30 games which filters out most backup netminders.

Mrazek doesn’t have a whole lot of NHL experience under his belt in his career though as he has just a total of 94 career appearances.  That makes this a particularly intriguing case as Mrazek is looking to earn starters money while being a #1 for basically just one full season.  It also has a lot to do with the sizable gap in the two offers.

While it has no bearing on the arbitration case itself, it’s worth noting that the Red Wings have Jimmy Howard under contract for three more years at a cap hit just shy of $5.3MM.  Their willingness or lack thereof to have both goalies on big money, multi-year deals could very likely impact contract negotiations.

Of the players in this process, Mrazek was the only player to not file for arbitration.  Instead, Detroit opted to take him to arbitration.  Players can only be subject to club-elected arbitration once in their careers so the Wings cannot pursue this route again in future offseasons.

Mrazek’s Stats

2015-16: 54 GP, 27-16-6 record, 2.33 GAA, .921 SV%, 4 shutouts
Career:  94 GP, 49-27-6 record, 2.29 GAA, .920 SV%, 9 shutouts

Potential Comparables

Jake Allen (St. Louis) – Four years, $17.4MM ($4.35MM AAV) – commencing in 2017-18

2015-16: 47 GP, 26-15-3 record, 2.35 GAA, .920 SV%, 6 shutouts
Career:  99 GP, 57-26-7 record, 2.34 GAA, .915 SV%, 11 shutouts

Frederik Andersen (Toronto) – Five years, $25MM ($5MM AAV) – commencing in 2016-17

2015-16: 43 GP, 22-9-7 record, 2.30 GAA, .919 SV%, 3 shutouts
Career:  125 GP, 77-26-12 record, 2.33 GAA, .918 SV%, 6 shutouts

Corey Crawford (Chicago) – Three years, $8MM ($2.67MM AAV) – from 2011-12 to 2013-14

2010-11: 57 GP, 33-18-6 record, 2.30 GAA, .917 SV%, 3 shutouts
Career as of ‘10-‘11:  65 GP, 34-21-7 record, 2.33 GAA, .917 SV%, 5 shutouts

(The salary cap is $9.7MM higher now than it was at the time the deal was signed.  In 2011, Crawford’s deal was 4.5% of the cap.  4.5% of the current salary cap is roughly $3.3MM.)

Devan Dubnyk (Edmonton) – Two years, $7MM ($3.5MM AAV) – from 2012-13 to 2013-14

2011-12: 47 GP, 20-20-3 record, 2.67 GAA, .914 SV%, 2 shutouts
Career as of ‘11-‘12:  101 GP, 36-43-13 record, 2.85 GAA, .910 SV%, 4 shutouts

(The salary cap is $13MM higher now than it was at the time the deal was signed.  In 2012, Dubnyk’s deal was 5.8% of the cap.  5.8% of the current salary cap is roughly $4.25MM.)

Jaroslav Halak (St. Louis) – Four years, $15MM ($4.25MM AAV) – from 2010-11 to 2013-14

2009-10: 45 GP, 26-13-5 record, 2.40 GAA, .924 SV%, 5 shutouts
Career as of ‘09-‘10:  101 GP, 56-34-7 record, 2.61 GAA, .919 SV%, 9 shutouts

(The salary cap is $13.6MM higher now than it was when the deal was signed.  In 2010, Halak’s deal was 6.3% of the cap.  6.3% of the current salary cap is roughly $4.6MM.)

The above players are at least somewhat comparable both in terms of their platform (most recent) season as well as their career numbers.  One other short-term contract comparable doesn’t have the ideal platform year to compare to but the career numbers are quite similar.

Tuukka Rask (Boston) – One year, $3.5MM – for the 2012-13 season

2011-12: 23 GP, 11-8-3 record, 2.05 GAA, .929 SV%, 3 shutouts
Career as of 2011-12:  102 GP, 47-35-11 record, 2.20 GAA, .917 SV%, 11 shutouts

(The salary cap is $13MM higher now than it was at the time the deal was signed.  In 2012, Rask’s deal was 5.8% of the cap.  5.8% of the current salary cap is roughly $4.25MM.)

Projection

The submissions show the difference in where each side feels Mrazek is.  Detroit appears to want Mrazek to take more of a ‘prove it’ contract at a rate closer to that of a platoon goalie.  Meanwhile, Mrazek and his reps feel that after a couple of years of above average goaltending (one as a starter, the other as more of a backup) that he’s worthy of the bigger ticket contract.

The comparables seem to favor Mrazek here.  Goalies with basically one year as a starter and roughly 100 games of career NHL experience are getting sizable contracts in their post-bridge deals so it’s conceivable that Mrazek will get one here too.  It’s going to be a two year contract at Mrazek’s request (since it was club-elected arbitration) and we project he’ll receive a deal that will line up with many of the comparables here.  We project a contract where he’ll earn $4MM in year one and $4.25MM in year two for a cap hit of $4.125MM.

Wild Sign RFA Jordan Schroeder

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July 25: The Wild have officially announced the signing.  Schroeder will make $650K in the NHL ($25K less than originally reported) and $275K in the AHL.

July 23: The Minnesota Wild have reportedly signed RFA Jordan Schroeder to a one-year, two-way deal, according to CBC’s Tim Wharnsby. Schroeder will get $675K at the NHL level, $275K in the AHL, and $300K in guaranteed salary.  Schroeder and the Wild were set to go to salary arbitration on July 27th.

Schroeder has yet to produce at the NHL level, amassing only 11G and 16A in 107 games with the Vancouver Canucks and the Wild. The homegrown forward has, however, put up decent production in the AHL. Last season Schroeder put up 14G and 20A in 40 Games with the Iowa Wild, Minnesota’s AHL Affiliate.

The core of the dispute between parties centered around whether Schroeder deserves a one-way contract. A one-way contract ensures that Schroeder receives full NHL pay if he is sent down to the minors, whereas a two-way contract significantly decreases his pay if the Wild demote him.

The Wild put Schroeder on waivers last week as a bargaining tool to show both a future arbitrator and Schroeder’s camp how much the forward is worth on the open market. Any team could claim Schroeder for a $15,000 waiver fee, and if he goes unclaimed—the fourth time in one year—it significantly weakens Schroeder’s position that he deserves a one-way contract. And as Michael Russo points out, the Wild did this in 2008 with RFA Stephane Veilleux. The Wild may have started a trend as the Maple Leafs waived Peter Holland yesterday in an attempt to achieve a similar result.

Week In Review: 7/18/16 – 7/24/16

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With the excitement of free agency mostly over, NHL teams are now taking care of housekeeping items like avoiding arbitration hearings with their remaining RFAs. Here’s a look back at the week that was.

Trades

July 18 – New York Rangers acquire C Mika Zibanejad and a 2018 2nd round pick from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for C Derick Brassard and a 2018 7th round pick.

Notable Signings

Marcus Johansson (Capitals) – avoided arbitration with a three-year, $13.75MM contract.
Mikhail Grigorenko (Avalanche) – the RFA forward signed a one-year contract worth $1.3MM before his arbitration hearing.
Chris Kreider (Rangers) – agreed to a four-year, $18.5MM contract, avoiding arbitration.
Kevin Hayes (Rangers) – avoided arbitration by signing a two-year contract worth $5.2MM.
Connor Carrick (Maple Leafs) – unlike many of the weeks signings, Carrick was not eligible for arbitration. He signed a two-year, $1.5MM contract.
Luke Schenn (Coyotes) – signed a two-year, $2.5MM contract in Arizona after splitting last season between the Flyers and Kings. Schenn was ranked 30th on our Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents List.

Waivers

Jordan Schroeder (Wild) – cleared waivers, then settled on a new one-year, $650K contract prior to his arbitration hearing.
Peter Holland (Maple Leafs) – Holland is not expected to be back with the Maple Leafs next season after clearing waivers ahead of his upcoming arbitration hearing.

Notable Prospect Signings

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs) – three-year entry-level deal
Jack Roslovic (Jets) – three-year entry-level deal

Retirements

Brad Richards (Red Wings) – The veteran center announced his retirement on July 20. Richards scored 932 points in 1126 NHL games with the Detroit Red Wings, Chicago Blackhawks, New York Rangers, Dallas Stars, and the Tampa Bay Lightning. Richards won two Stanley Cups: 2004 with the Lightning and 2015 with the Blackhawks. Richards was the Conn Smythe Trophy winner in 2004.

Sunday Snapshots: KHL, Corrado, Schenn

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The KHL’s Chinese expansion team, Kunlun Red Star, has signed three former NHLers prior to their first exhibition game, according to KHL insider Aivis Kalnins.

Sean Collins, a 27-year-old center from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, spent last season with the Washington Capitals’ AHL affiliate in Hershey and appeared in two NHL games with the Capitals; winger Alexandre Picard, a former 8th overall pick by Columbus in 2004, played 67 games with the Blue Jackets over parts of five seasons before spending the last four seasons in Switzerland; former Hurricanes defenseman Brett Bellemore also signed with Red Star after spending last season with Providence of the AHL.

Kunlun played its first exhibition game on Sunday morning versus Traktor Chelyabinsk in Finland.

More snapshots from around the hockey world:

  • The Maple Leafs and their RFA defenseman Frankie Corrado have filed briefs ahead of their upcoming arbitration case. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports the team’s offers are worth $625K/ $125K on a two-way contract or $575K for a one-way contract. Corrado’s asking price is $900K.
  • Newly-signed Coyotes defenseman Luke Schenn told the team’s website that he’s looking forward to being able to grow as a player in a market without as much added pressure as he’s previously experienced. Schenn has played most of his career in major hockey markets Toronto, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles.

Peter Holland Clears Waivers

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Restricted Free Agent Peter Holland cleared waivers this afternoon with no team claiming the arbitration-pending centerman. Holland elected salary arbitration this summer and is set for a hearing on Monday July 25th.

The two sides are $1.2MM apart. The Leafs are offering $900K and Holland wants $2.1MM. Toronto waived Holland yesterday in what is thought of as an attempt to prove his low worth around the league. The thinking goes that if no team is willing to claim Holland for a mere $15,000 waiver fee, he is not worth the price asked by his camp. The Minnesota Wild did the same this summer with RFA Jordan Schroeder before signing him to a one-year, two-way deal today worth $675K / $275K.

The flipside to that argument, however, is that no team wants to claim a player on the brink of a salary arbitration hearing. It is unclear if arbitration deadlines remain final in the wake of a waiver claim. The CBA does allow for postponing an arbitration hearing upon good cause (See CBA, Art. 12.9(m)), but it is unclear what constitutes good cause. If the deadlines remain fixed, the claiming team would have to submit an arbitration brief at the last second. The hassle alone may deter teams.

 

Salary Arbitration Updates: Schenn; Holland

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Both Brayden Schenn and Peter Holland are scheduled for salary arbitration on Monday, and the offers from both the players and teams have been released.

CBC’s Tim Wharnsby reports that Brayden Schenn is asking for a one-year deal worth $5.5MM. The Flyers are offering a two-year deal worth $4.25MM in year one and $4.37MM in year two. Any decision by an arbitrator would trigger the Flyers’ ’walk-away’ rights—the option for the team to walk away from the decision and render the player an unrestricted free agent—because an award would be above the $3.9MM threshold. Because the Flyers elected a two-year decision, using the walk away right would reduce the decision to one year and then Schenn becomes an unrestricted free agent.

Schenn scored 26G and 33A in 80 games last year for the Flyers, finishing third in team scoring. Schenn’s numbers are higher than Chris Kreider’s, who the New York Rangers signed for $4.65MM AAV prior to arbitration. Schenn’s production is also higher than Alex Killorn’s—another RFA signed before arbitration— who agreed to a long-term deal worth $4.45MM AAV. The best comparable from Schenn’s point of view is St. Louis Blues forward Jaden Schwartz. Schwartz signed a five-year deal worth $5.5MM AAV ahead of arbitration. The young Blues forward scored 8G and 14A this year in only 33 games, but potted 26G and 35A in 75 games last season. Schwartz also netted 4G and 10A in 20 playoff games this year as the Blues made it to the Western Conference Finals.

Wharnsby also reports that Peter Holland—fresh off of being waived by the Maple Leafs in a move to prove the center’s value around the league—is asking for $2.1MM. The Leafs have offered $900K. The parties are apart by $1.2MM. The center scored 9G and 18A in 65 games for the Leafs last season while sporting only a 46.5% success rate in the face-off dot. The Leafs have been patient with Holland, but expectations from management that he will flourish into a power-forward are waning.

Holland’s perception as a bottom-six forward poses a problem for accurately pinning down his worth. On one hand, Lars Eller—a center with similar stats—is making $3.5MM annually. On the other hand, Mikhail Grigorenko—also with similar stats—just signed a one-year deal before arbitration worth only $1.3MM. So much of a bottom-six forward’s value relies on how the league perceives a player, regardless of whether that perception is valid. Gritty forwards get paid more than offensive busts despite similar stats.

 

 

Metropolitan Notes: Buyouts, Mahoney, Schenn

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After finalizing the deal with Kevin Hayes this afternoon, the New York Rangers have come to terms with each of the four players who filed for salary arbitration this summer (Hayes, Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller and Dylan McIlrath) before any of them had a hearing. With it, comes an additional buyout window that will start on Monday and last for 48 hours.

In this window, the team may perform a buyout on a player who fulfills certain criteria. Many speculated during the last window that the team could buy out defenseman Dan Girardi, and as the Rangers move closer to the cap, this remains a possibility.  Girardi’s play has deteriorated over the past few seasons, and he carries a cap hit of $5.5MM for the next four years.

If the team were to buy out Girardi, they’d be paying him $10MM total, spread over eight years.  His cap hits would be as follows (via General Fanager):

2016-17 – $1.75MM
2017-18 – $2.75MM
2018-19 – $3.75MM
2019-20 – $3.75MM
2020-21 – $1.25MM
2021-22 – $1.25MM
2022-23 – $1.25MM
2023-24 – $1.25MM.

There has been no word from Rangers camp that Girardi is headed for a buyout, but we’ll keep an eye on the situation as it unfolds.  Here are some more notes from the Metropolitan division:

  • While there has been relatively little news out of Las Vegas since the city was granted an expansion franchise, Elliotte Friedman is hearing that the team is after Washington Capitals assistant general manager Ross Mahoney, and has asked the club for it’s permission to interview him.  While there hasn’t been any response from the Capitals, Mahoney worked with new Las Vegas GM George McPhee for over a decade in Washington and may see it as a new opportunity.
  • The last thing we heard about Brayden Schenn is that there has been “no progress of any kind” on a new contract, and the young forward is getting closer and closer to his arbitration hearing.  Each player so far that has been scheduled before Schenn’s July 25th hearing has come to an agreement, but so far it doesn’t sound like there is any movement from either camp.  The Philadelphia centerman is coming off his best year as a pro, one that saw him score 26 goals and 59 points in 80 games. His continued development will be a discussion point in arbitration, as the former fifth-overall pick has increased his point total each season of his career.

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