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Arbitration

Maple Leafs Waive Peter Holland

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Elliotte Friedman tweets that the Toronto Maple Leafs have waived forward Peter Holland. He is set for an arbitration hearing next Monday July 25.  James Mirtle posted a number of different tweets regarding the Leafs’ reason for making the move.  Mirtle does not believe Holland will return to the Leafs and believes he will be claimed or moved following the hearing.

Last season, Holland had 27 points (9-18) in 65 games. A season prior, he registered 25 points (11-14) in 62 games.

Holland becomes the second player waived prior to an arbitration hearing. On Tuesday,  Jordan Schroeder was waived by the Minnesota Wild.

Arbitration Tracker

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Ten days ago, the NHLPA released the schedule for player and team-elected arbitration hearings. Since then, four hearing dates have come and gone with no hearings, with eight players agreeing to contracts to avoid the unpleasant process.

Here’s an updated list of all 24 players who were scheduled for an arbitration hearing:

Player Elected Filings:

Arizona Coyotes
Michael Stone – Stone and the tough-negotiating Coyotes have a hearing set for August 4.

Colorado Avalanche
Tyson Barrie – Hearing set for July 29. Barrie has been the subject of near-constant trade rumors this summer.
Mikhail Grigorenko – Agreed to a one-year, $1.3MM contract on July 20, just two days before the scheduled hearing.

Detroit Red Wings
Jared Coreau – Agreed to a two-year, $1.25MM contract on July 6, well before any hearings were scheduled.
Danny DeKeyser – Signed a six-year deal on July 26th, locking him up long-term for the Red Wings.

Minnesota Wild
Jordan Schroeder – The Wild signed Schroeder to a one-year, two-way deal on July 23rd worth $675K in the NHL and $275K in the AHL.

Nashville Predators
Petter Granberg – Signed a two-year, two-way deal worth $575K / $175K (300K guaranteed) in the first year, and $650K / $175K in the second.
Calle Jarnkrok – Signed a six-year, $12MM deal July 27th.

New York Rangers
Kevin Hayes – Signed a two-year, $5.2MM deal Friday afternoon, hours after Kreider.
Chris Kreider – The Rangers and Kreider agreed to a four-year, $18.5MM contract Friday morning, beating the scheduled 9am arbitration meeting.
Dylan McIlrath – The massive defender signed a one-year, $800k contract last week, beating his hearing by a week.
J.T. Miller – World Cup-bound Miller and the Rangers settled on a two-year, $2.75MM contract on July 13.

Ottawa Senators
Mike Hoffman – After a long negotiation, the Senators and Hoffman agreed to a four-year, $20.75MM deal on July 27th.

Philadelphia Flyers
Brandon Manning – Manning got an unexpected second year in his two-year, $1.95MM deal he signed on July 26th.
Brayden Schenn – Schenn and the Flyers agreed to a four-year deal worth $5.125MM AAV.
Jordan Weal – Acquired by the Flyers in the Vincent Lecavalier trade, Weal signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract the day the arbitration schedule was released.

St. Louis Blues
Jaden Schwartz – The Blues signed their young star to a five-year, $5.5MM contract last week.

Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex Killorn – The clutch playoff performer signed a long-term extension over the weekend, agreeing to $4.45MM per year for seven seasons.
Vladislav Namestnikov – World Cup-bound forward signed a two-year deal worth $1.9375MM on July 26th, three days before arbitration hearing.

Toronto Maple Leafs
Frank Corrado – Toronto signed Corrado to a one-year, one-way deal worth $600K on July 25.
Peter Holland – Holland signed a one-year deal worth $1.3MM on July 25.
Martin Marincin – The promising young shut-down defenseman is scheduled for arbitration on August 2.

Washington Capitals
Marcus Johansson – Johansson agreed to a three-year, $4.58MM contract just minutes before his hearing was set to begin.

CLUB ELECTED FILINGS:

Detroit Red Wings
Petr Mrazek – Just before his hearing on July 27th, Mrazek and the Red Wings inked a two-year, $8MM deal. With Jimmy Howard still earning $5.3MM for next season, the duo is one of the more expensive in the league.

We’ve previously explained the arbitration process as part of our Capology 101 series. Check out our Mike Furlano’s articles on eligibility and the arbitration process.

Grigorenko, Avalanche Settle On Terms

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According to Tim Wharnsby of CBC, the Colorado Avalanche and RFA forward Mikhail Grigorenko have agreed to terms on a contract for 2016-17. Grigorenko, who had an arbitration hearing scheduled for Friday and who just exchanged numbers with the club this morning, will receive $1.3MM for the upcoming campaign. The Avalanche had offered $950K with Grigorenko’s camp countering at $1.65MM. The settlement comes in at exactly the midpoint.

Grigorenko finished with six goals and 27 points in his first season with the Avalanche after coming over from Buffalo as part of the return in the blockbuster Ryan O’Reilly trade. The 22-year-old natural center has 12 goals and 41 points in 142 NHL contests.

The Sabres selected Grigorenko in the first-round, 12th overall, of the 2012 entry draft. Grigerenko played his junior hockey for Quebec in the QMJHL under current Avalanche head coach Patrick Roy. That likely played a role in his inclusion in the trad package for O’Reilly.

The signing leaves Tyson Barrie as the club’s lone remaining RFA. With more than $6MM in space left according to General Fanager, the Avalanche should have the necessary room to get a deal done with the defenseman, even if negotiations have reportedly not gone smoothly.

Arbitration Breakdown: Chris Kreider

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With the clock ticking down, the New York Rangers and the camp for Chris Kreider have filed their respective briefs in advance of Friday’s scheduled arbitration hearing, as we earlier reported on Pro Hockey Rumors. The Rangers offered a figure of $3.2MM while Kreider has requested $4.75MM in salary for the 2016-17 campaign.

The apparently wide gulf is indicative of a typical negotiating ploy being utilized by both parties. Kreider’s side comes in on the high end while the club submits a lower number, each with the knowledge that arbitrators typically award a number comfortably between the two positions. Should this actually go to a hearing, and there is every reason to believe negotiations on a long-term deal are being conducted as we speak, the arbitrator likely would award a one-year salary of around $4MM, roughly near the midpoint of the figures exchanged.

If we operate under the supposition both sides are willing to do a long term deal, what would Kreider then be worth?

Kreider’s is an interesting case. Still just 25, the former Boston College standout and former first-round pick possesses a rare blend of size, speed and skill. The six-foot-three, 226-pound winger is among the fastest straight line skaters in the game today and creates numerous scoring chances due solely to his physical skills. When fully engaged, Kreider has the ability to dominate entire games with his speed and physicality.

Following a 21-goal performance during the 2014-15 campaign, it was believed Kreider might finally be realizing his vast potential and a 30-goal season was considered the logical next step in his development. But Kreider struggled with consistency in 2015-16, an all-too-frequent experience during his burgeoning career (and frankly one shared by many young players), and needed five tallies in his final eight games to match his 2014-15 output.

Still, 20-goal scorers in their prime and with additional offensive upside are not cheap. Fortunately, a couple of recent RFA signings can be used for comparative purposes to help determine just how much Kreider may be worth.

Kyle Palmieri recently inked a five-year deal with New Jersey that comes with an AAV of $4.65MM per season. Palmieri is coming off a better platform campaign than Kreider, tallying career highs in both goals with 30 and points with 57.

Meanwhile, Washington Capitals forward Marcus Johansson, avoided arbitration by agreeing to a three-year, $13.75MM contract which averages out to just under $4.6MM annually. Johansson finished the 2015-16 season with 17 goals and 46 points.

On the surface both would seem to serve as obvious comparables. And while their contracts certainly help us hone in on Kreider’s potential value, the big winger has some advantages over his peers that could boost his value.

First, even though Kreider’s 43-point 2015-16 output falls short of Palmieri (57) and Johansson (46), his 1.85 points/60 at five-on-five (5v5) scoring rate over the last two seasons is superior. Johansson has recorded a 1.68 points/60 at 5v5 and Palmieri comes in at 1.55 over that same time frame.

Second, Kreider already has extensive postseason experience and has excelled when it matters most. He’s potted 20 goals in 65 playoff contests since debuting during the 2011-12 postseason, scoring his first playoff goal a week before his 21st birthday. Palmieri has tallied seven goals in 33 postseason games. Johansson also has seven playoff goals, albeit in 56 contests.

The New York Rangers relatively quiet foray into free agency, and the recent trade of Derick Brassard to Ottawa for Mika Zibanejad, has left the Rangers with $10.65MM in cap space according to General Fanager. With only Kevin Hayes and Marek Hrivik remaining unsigned as RFAs, it seems reasonable to conclude the Rangers have the financial wherewithal to offer a deal in the range of $5MM annually for five years. This would allow the club to buy three unrestricted free agent seasons and lock up one of their top young players through his prime years at what could be a very affordable price should he ever meet his 30-goal potential. Even as a 20-goal scorer, the cost wouldn’t be too out of line with what is paid on the open market.

 

 

NHL Dismisses Arbitrator James Oldham

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Liz Mullen from the Sports Business Journal tweets today that the NHL has dismissed Neutral Discipline Arbitrator James Oldham.

Oldham, who also does work with Major League Baseball and the NFL, and teaches as Georgetown Law School, was responsible for the reduction in Flames defenseman Dennis Wideman’s suspension from 20 games to 10.  While there could be any number of reasons for the dismissal, the NHL was dealt a serious blow when Wideman, who had served most of his suspension by the time the ruling came in, was granted relative leniency for hitting an on-ice official, and there will certainly be speculation regarding the league’s motives.

Upcoming Salary Arbitration Hearings

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With the signings of Jaden Schwartz, Alex Killorn, and Dylan McIlrath, this week’s NHL arbitration calendar was slashed in half. Still scheduled, however, are Marcus Johansson (who’s case we profiled here), Chris Kreider, and Mikhail Grigorenko. Johansson’s hearing is on Wednesday July 20th, and both Kreider and Grigorenko have hearings on Friday July 22nd.

Players and teams have up until 48 hours before the hearing date to submit their argument briefs, and that is usually when we hear each sides’ salary demand. Kreider made $2.475MM on his last RFA contract, and will be looking for a significant raise after two straight twenty goal seasons. Kreider is a central cog to the Rangers offense, and while he is currently penciled in as the number 2 LW, the possibility of Rick Nash losing a step becomes more real with each passing season. The Rangers have over $11MM in cap space after their offseason moves, so they should be able to afford whatever the arbitrator decides.

[see New York Rangers depth chart at Roster Resource]

Grigorenko’s case is less straightforward. The Russian forward potted 6G and 21A with Colorado last year, but has not lived up to his hype after being drafted 12th overall by the Buffalo Sabres in 2012. Grigorenko’s previous contract paid him only $625K last season, and he does deserve a raise. How much of a raise, however, is left for the arbitrator to decide. Grigorenko’s representation will have to find a way to parlay potential into dollars while the Avalanche will point to Grigorenko’s current and past production.

[see Colorado’s depth chart at Roster Resource]

Vancouver Canucks Sign Pedan, Grenier

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According to a team release, the Vancouver Canucks have re-signed restricted free agents Andrey Pedan and Alexandre Grenier to one-year, two-way contracts. Neither player was eligible for arbitration this summer. Grenier will receive $575K ($125K in AHL) plus a $25K signing bonus, per Renaud Lavoie. Pedan will receive $700K ($100K in AHL).

Pedan, 23, made his NHL debut this season, suiting up 13 times for Vancouver.  His physical style has never lent itself to much offensive production, and it proved true in the NHL as the blueliner was held pointless in his first taste of the big leagues.

A former third-round pick by the Islanders in 2011, Pedan will be battling for a bottom-pairing spot on the Canucks this season, using his size to effectively remove attackers from the puck in his own end.

For Grenier, 2015-16 also represented his first shot in the NHL as he was called up on two different occasions during the season. He got into six total games, and didn’t contribute a point in just over eleven minutes a night.

Grenier was another third-round pick in 2011, this time by the Canucks themselves.  He faired well in the minors and tallied 130 points in 208 career AHL games. Last season, he led the Utica Comets in points with 48, and contributed 16 goals. Still probably a year away from getting a real shot with the Canucks, he’ll look to lead the Comets to another successful season.

With the contracts, the Canucks have signed all of their restricted free agents, and will now turn to any tweaks they might have for the roster going forward. With under $3MM left in cap-space, they can’t take on much more as of this moment.

(Current Canucks’ Depth Chart via Roster Resource)

Arbitration Breakdown: Marcus Johansson

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The first arbitration numbers have been filed as Washington and left winger Marcus Johansson each made their submissions in advance of Wednesday’s hearing.  According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Capitals have offered a one year deal at $3.85MM while Johansson’s camp is seeking $5.25MM.  Here is a closer look at Johansson’s case.

[For more background on the arbitration process, consult Parts One and Two of our Capology 101: Arbitration series.]

The Numbers

Points wise, Johansson has been quite consistent over the past three years, collecting between 44 and 47 points in each.  In 2015-16, he suited up in 74 games for the Caps, scoring 17 goals and 29 assists, matching the second highest point total of his career.  That ranked him sixth in team scoring.  The bulk of his production came in the second quarter of the season though where he collected 17 points in that span; his point totals in any of the other three quarters failed to exceed 12.

Johansson was a top six forward with Washington and a fixture on their power play, logging 2:44 per night with the man advantage last season.  He also spent more time at center than he had since 2011-12, taking 278 faceoffs, winning 46% of them.  In the postseason, he added seven points in 12 games which also ranked him sixth on the team.

In the early stages of his career, Johansson was predominantly a playmaker as 70% of his points in his first four seasons were assists.  The 25 year old has shown more of a scoring touch the last two years, however, as only 60% of his points have been assists.  This can only work to strengthen Johansson’s case as goal scoring is a major factor in arbitration awards and a more well-rounded offensive player should stand to earn more than a one-dimensional playmaker.

Potential Comparables

Colin Wilson (Nashville) – Wilson avoided arbitration with the Preds last offseason, agreeing to a four year deal with a cap hit of $3.9375MM coming off a 20 goal, 42 point season where he averaged over 16 minutes per game.  Like Johansson, Wilson also spent some time at centre and the wing and has been more of a playmaker than a scorer throughout his career.

Nazem Kadri (Toronto) – Like Johansson last offseason, Kadri spent 2015-16 on a one year, ‘prove it’ deal and parlayed that into $4.5MM per season for six years.  Over the past three seasons, their points per game averages are nearly identical (0.59 for Kadri, 0.58 for Johansson) and play similar roles with their respective clubs.

Craig Smith (Nashville) – Smith’s year-to-year production when he signed a five year deal with a $4.25MM AAV was more volatile than Johansson’s but the overall numbers are comparable.  Both players are secondary producers that have left their teams wanting more at times, particularly in the consistency department.

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency.

Projection

Last offseason, Johansson was awarded $3.75MM coming off a season that was quite similar to the one he had in 2015-16 both in terms of his point production and role.  With that in mind, it’s hard to see the arbitrator leaning closer to Johansson’s number.  Typically, it’s expected that an award will come in close to the midpoint (in this case, $4.55MM) but this should come in a bit lower than that.  We project a $4.25MM award from the arbitrator if the two sides can’t come to terms on a new deal before then.

Josh Jooris, Tommy Hughes Sign With New York Rangers

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After inking defenseman Dylan McIlrath to a one-year deal avoiding arbitration, the Rangers have also signed free agent forward Josh Jooris according to the team twitter. Jooris played for Calgary last season, recording 13 points in 59 games.  The team also announced that they have come to terms with restricted free agent Tommy Hughes on a new deal.

Jooris, 26, went undrafted out of the OJHL before heading to Union College where he would play with fellow Metropolitan Division youngster Shayne Gostisbehere for two seasons. Jooris would put up solid numbers at the college before being signed in 2013 to join the Abbostford Heat of the AHL. He really made his mark in his first NHL campaign however, when he scored 12 goals and 24 points and suited up on the powerplay more than a few times.

For Hughes, New York is the only organization he’s ever known after being signed as a undrafted free agent out of London in 2013. He’s spent the last three seasons with the Hartford Wolf Pack of the AHL, putting up 25 points and playing a solid defensive game.  After the McIlrath signing locked up a bottom pairing defenseman for this season, Hughes will continue to serve as depth for the team in the AHL, and might make his debut this season should injuries occur.

Rangers Sign Dylan McIlrath To One-Year Deal

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After filing for arbitration earlier this month, defenseman Dylan McIlrath has come to terms with the New York Rangers on a one-year, $800K contract for 2016-17, according to a team release.

McIlrath, 24, played in 34 games for the Rangers last season, lending his physical style to the bottom pairing. With 64 PIM, the former 10th overall pick ranked second on the team and recorded 93 hits and 35 blocked shots. His possession numbers indicate that he may be able to take on a larger role as soon as this season, and with the departure of Keith Yandle, and retirement of Dan Boyle, it may soon present itself.

Larry Brooks of the New York Post points out that should McIlrath not play in at least 42 games this season, he would become a Group VI unrestricted free agent on July 1, 2017. To qualify for this type of free agency, a player must have played in less than 80 NHL games (among other things); McIlrath currently has played in 38, including one playoff match this season.

The Rangers also signed free agent forward Josh Jooris within minutes of announcing the McIlrath deal, and still have arbitration eligible RFAs Chris Kreider and Kevin Hayes on the docket. Kreider has an arbitration hearing set for July 22nd, while Hayes will have to wait until the 27th.

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