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Archives for 2021

Seven Notable RFAs Still Remain Unsigned

September 5, 2021 at 5:55 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson 6 Comments

It’s September 5th, which means that NHL preseason hockey is now less than three weeks away. Teams have been dealing with the realities of a flat salary cap for two offseasons now, but for some teams, it’s crunch time as their young star (or stars) remain in need of a new contract for the 2021-22 season.

While it’s obviously preferable for teams to get these players signed so they can join the team right away, teams do technically have until December 1st to sign any RFAs for them to be eligible to suit up this season. However, waiting into the season to sign the RFAs will increase the cap hit for the first year of the deal, something the league saw with William Nylander’s contract in 2018-19.

For some teams, mainly the Vancouver Canucks, that could be an issue. They’re the team that faces the largest potential cap crunch with both Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes to sign. The team currently carries $10.7MM in cap space, but that number could increase to as much as $14.2MM with Micheal Ferland being placed on long-term injured reserve. Pettersson and Hughes both struggled at times this season, but it’s hard to take results from any Canuck into account too much due to the team’s large-scale COVID-19 outbreak. Pettersson was limited to just 26 games because of injury, scoring 21 points. Hughes netted 41 points in 56 games. However, it’s still a hard argument to make that these two aren’t elite talents. Because of this, it’s likely impossible for Vancouver to afford both on long-term deals. One of them will likely be receiving a two-to-four-year contract with a much lower cap hit, but the contracts need to be signed before the start of the season in order to avoid any inflation on the already tight cap hits.

Then there’s two teams who’ve had long, drawn-out negotiations with their respective stars this offseason – the Minnesota Wild and Ottawa Senators. Both Kirill Kaprizov and Brady Tkachuk remain without deals. There appears to be some amount of hope for one team, though. Multiple reports in recent days have suggested the Wild are making progress on a deal, especially considering the deadline has now passed for Kaprizov to sign back home in Russia. The same can’t be said for Ottawa, as Tkachuk has claimed he hasn’t received a legitimate offer from the team and is beginning to get frustrated with the situation (as reported here by TSN’s Shawn Simpson). Ottawa does still have a great amount of salary cap flexibility, though, and they can afford for contract negotiations to stretch into the season.

Staying in Canada, the Edmonton Oilers still have Kailer Yamamoto to lock down in order to fill out their top-six forward group. When Oscar Klefbom is placed on LTIR and Alex Stalock is presumably sent down to the minors, the team will still have just around $1.8MM in cap space. Yamamoto likely won’t be signing anything longer than a two-year deal due to the situation. And though they can create some additional flexibility by not operating with a full roster, Edmonton will still be very interested in avoiding a prorated cap hit as the salary cap situation will remain tight no matter what.

Then there’s the remaining duo of youngsters playing for American teams – Rasmus Dahlin and Robert Thomas. Dahlin’s negotiations will be interesting to watch, purely to see if the team will commit to him long-term or not. The Sabres likely want to pay him more as the team still hasn’t reached the salary cap floor, as they still need to add roughly $2.5MM in cap hits to be cap-compliant. Dahlin will receive much more than that on any deal he signs. The Blues are in a bit of a pickle with Thomas, as the team has just $1.5MM in cap space remaining to ink the promising young forward. Thomas had only 12 points in 33 games this year and spent time injured, but had 10 goals and 42 points the season prior. It’ll likely be a one-year or two-year deal for Thomas, who finds himself in a very similar situation to Yamamoto in Edmonton.

All seven of these players will be watched with a keen eye by many in the hockey community as each day passes before camps open across the league. As the league emerges from the quiet part of the offseason, these players will likely dominate headlines sooner rather than later.

All salary cap figures via CapFriendly.com.

Buffalo Sabres| Edmonton Oilers| Minnesota Wild| Ottawa Senators| RFA| St. Louis Blues| Vancouver Canucks Brady Tkachuk| Elias Pettersson| Kailer Yamamoto| Kirill Kaprizov| Salary Cap

6 comments

Poll: Are The Montreal Canadiens A Playoff Team In 2021-22?

September 5, 2021 at 2:34 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson 31 Comments

After making it all the way to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, losing in five games to the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Montreal Canadiens have had one of the most interesting offseasons of any team. That much roster turnover is unusual for a team that made it that far in the playoffs, but a decent portion of it has been out of their control.

A good portion of Montreal’s starting 12 forwards will look different next season. Gone down the middle are Phillip Danault, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Eric Staal. Dvorak will attempt to replace Danault’s shutdown role with a little more offensive touch but less defensive prowess. Kotkaniemi’s third-line role is likely to be replaced by another young center, most probably Jake Evans. Staal’s fourth-line role will likely be comprised of a more defensive-minded pivot in Cedric Paquette. Their group of wingers will look different too, losing out on Tomas Tatar’s two-way play in favor of a power-play specialist in Mike Hoffman. Gone is veteran Corey Perry in the bottom six, being replaced by another veteran presence in Mathieu Perreault.

The team’s defense faces the loss of the team’s captain in Shea Weber. His injury will keep him out for at least this entire season and puts the rest of his career in jeopardy. His absence will be replaced by committee, as youngster Alexander Romanov and new addition David Savard should see more minutes. The left side stays relatively constant from last season, and overseas addition Chris Wideman could challenge for some games as well.

A tandem of Carey Price and Jake Allen returns after a successful regular season campaign.

However, a team that barely squeaked into the playoffs last season returns with some question marks. Full seasons of Jonathan Drouin and Cole Caufield help boost the team, but downgrades from Danault to Dvorak and Tatar to Hoffman raise near-negating doubts. The success of youngsters like Evans and Romanov will be crucial if Montreal wants to make a return to the playoffs in 2022, and they’ll need repeat performances from players such as Jeff Petry and Josh Anderson.

So the question to you, PHR readers, is this: has Montreal done enough this offseason to yield a playoff team in an increasingly competitive Eastern Conference? Make your voice heard below:

Do The Montreal Canadiens Make The Playoffs In 2022?
Yes, just barely 42.53% (911 votes)
No, just miss 31.09% (666 votes)
Yes, 100+ point season 13.68% (293 votes)
No, bottom-tier team 12.70% (272 votes)
Total Votes: 2,142

Mobile users, click here to vote!

Montreal Canadiens| Players| Polls| Tampa Bay Lightning Alexander Romanov| Cedric Paquette| Cole Caufield| David Savard| Jake Evans| Jeff Petry| Jesperi Kotkaniemi| Jonathan Drouin| Josh Anderson| Mathieu Perreault| Mike Hoffman| Phillip Danault

31 comments

Marcus Sorensen Signs In Sweden

September 5, 2021 at 12:26 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson 1 Comment

Former San Jose Sharks forward Marcus Sorensen has chosen to continue his hockey career overseas. Sorensen has signed a four-year contract with Djurgardens IF in the SHL, per Swedish outlet Telgenytt, meaning that Sorensen likely won’t be returning to the NHL anytime soon.

Sorensen returns to his native Sweden after a five-year NHL career which saw him tally 31 goals and 64 points in 226 games, all in a San Jose Sharks uniform. Originally drafted by the Ottawa Senators in 2010, the now 29-year-old forward never signed with Ottawa and instead signed his entry-level deal with San Jose on May 13, 2016. He played in the NHL right away as a 24-year-old at the time, scoring four points in 19 games. Sorensen continued to progress within the Sharks system, including a career-best 17 goals and 30 points in 80 games in 2018-19. Never more than a third-line depth option for San Jose, though, Sorensen never topped those numbers.

A pending unrestricted free agent this year, Sorensen put up arguably the worst performance of his NHL career. It’s not that hard to blame him given the state of the team this season, but only one goal and five points in 29 games was a far cry from the production he’d put up in the past. He’ll look to rediscover his game overseas while returning home to his native Sweden. Considering the fact that he’ll be 33 years old at the expiry of the deal, Sorensen may have played his last NHL game.

SHL| San Jose Sharks Marcus Sorensen

1 comment

Snapshots: Kotkaniemi, Hurricanes Cap, Quenneville

September 5, 2021 at 11:33 am CDT | by Josh Erickson 12 Comments

It’s been an unusually busy weekend in the hockey world, with yesterday’s successful Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer sheet and Christian Dvorak trade dominating headlines. Both of those moves have some corresponding implications that reach into today’s news cycle, including Kotkaniemi’s future as a playing member of the Carolina Hurricanes. General manager Don Waddell stated in his press conference this morning that the team’s plan is to start Kotkaniemi at the left-wing position in Carolina. It won’t be anything completely new for the 21-year-old Finnish forward, who’s played wing sparingly at times during his tenure with the Montreal Canadiens, but was mostly used as a bottom-six center there. Given his still-tantalizing potential and $6.1MM price tag, it’s likely that Kotkaniemi could slot in the top six along with Vincent Trocheck, but it’s all speculation until training camp begins. What’s for certain is that Carolina aims to give Kotkaniemi more opportunity and a better supporting cast than he’s had previously, hoping to get the most out of Kotkaniemi for the gamble of a price.

Some more fallout from the Kotkaniemi offer sheet, as well as a note about a Seattle Kraken expansion draft selection:

  • With today’s news of Jake Gardiner’s back and hip surgery and pending long-term injured reserve placement, the Carolina Hurricanes now have some salary-cap maneuvering to do. PuckPedia notes that Carolina will be able to exceed the cap by $4.05MM, the average annual value of Gardiner’s contract. The team currently sits at $1.5MM over the cap after the Kotkaniemi deal became official. PuckPedia also surmises that Carolina won’t have to go through too much trouble in order to maximize their salary cap relief, only sending two players down to be as close to the Upper Limit as possible before placing Gardiner on LTIR. Martin Necas remains the only non-waiver-eligible player on the roster and considering his role on the team, it’s unlikely he’ll be involved in a paper transaction. Steven Lorentz and Brendan Smith seem likely candidates to be waived and sent down in order to make the team cap-compliant.
  • The ZSC Lions of the Swiss National League announced today that they’ve signed former NHL forward John Quenneville to a contract after signing him to a professional tryout last month. Quenneville is one of a few Seattle Kraken expansion draft selections to not remain with the team into the 2021-22 season. Their selection from the Chicago Blackhawks, Quenneville was a pending unrestricted free agent and wasn’t signed by the Kraken. A first-round pick of the New Jersey Devils in 2014, the now 25-year-old Quenneville never secured a full-time role in the NHL and will likely see much more opportunity overseas. Quenneville appeared in 42 NHL games between 2016 and 2020, scoring two goals and five points.

Carolina Hurricanes| Montreal Canadiens| Seattle Kraken| Snapshots Jake Gardiner| Jesperi Kotkaniemi| John Quenneville| Salary Cap

12 comments

Jake Gardiner To Have Hip Surgery

September 5, 2021 at 10:08 am CDT | by Josh Erickson 12 Comments

Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Jake Gardiner will have back and hip surgery and will be placed on long-term injured reserve, general manager Don Waddell announced today. The announcement comes less than 24 hours after the team exceeded the salary cap’s Upper Limit by signing Jesperi Kotkaniemi to a one-year, $6.1MM offer sheet.

Gardiner’s career as a Hurricane hasn’t been smooth since signing a four-year, $16.2MM contract in free agency on September 6, 2019. The 31-year-old Minnesota native has played in just 94 games over the past two seasons, missing time due to a combination of injuries and healthy scratches. He’s posted just four goals and 32 points in that time. The timeline of Gardiner’s injury isn’t known at this present moment, but his placement on LTIR confirms that he won’t be ready for the start of the season.

Even when healthy, Gardiner’s been utilized mostly in a third-pairing role, sitting behind Jaccob Slavin and Brady Skjei on the depth chart. Still a skilled offensive play driver, his all-around game has dipped since arriving in Carolina. Still, with a large hole to fill due to Dougie Hamilton’s departure, Carolina could have used Gardiner’s offensive skills on the blueline.

Carolina presently sits at $1.5MM over the salary cap upper limit of $81.5MM. With Gardiner’s $4.05MM cap hit heading to LTIR, Carolina will have up to $2.55MM in usable cap space to fill while Gardiner is on long-term injured reserve.

All salary cap data via CapFriendly.com.

Carolina Hurricanes Jake Gardiner

12 comments

Montreal Canadiens Acquire Christian Dvorak

September 4, 2021 at 5:35 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson 41 Comments

The Montreal Canadiens announced today that they’ve acquired center Christian Dvorak from the Arizona Coyotes. The return is a conditional 2022 first-round draft pick as well as a 2024 second-round selection.

The conditions listed on the 2022 first-round pick are complex, to say the least. Arizona will receive the better of the two first-round picks that Montreal owns, both their own and Carolina’s (received today as compensation for Jesperi Kotkaniemi). The first-round pick is also semi-top-10 protected, meaning that if one of Montreal’s first-round selections is in the top 10 of the 2022 draft, Arizona will receive the worse of the two picks.

For Montreal, it’s a quick answer to the questions raised by how they’d fill the departure of both Phillip Danault and Kotkaniemi this offseason. There’s a lot to like about this Dvorak acquisition, including his cost certainty. The 25-year-old center is under contract for four more seasons at a cap hit of $4.45MM, with a modified no-trade clause that kicks in for the last two seasons of his deal.

Dvorak, who likely slots as the second-line center behind Nick Suzuki, is a capable two-way player who’s faced tough competition during his time in Arizona. Likely to receive a slight reduction on his 18:24 average time on ice from last season, his offensive numbers could improve from his career-high 18 goals and 38 points with a little less responsibility. From a hockey standpoint, Dvorak’s proven game at the NHL level makes him an immediate upgrade over Kotkaniemi for less money.

The Coyotes are in full teardown mode and not ashamed to show it. The team has now just three forwards on the active roster signed through next season – Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, and Andrew Ladd. Only two of those players are expected to be contributors at the NHL level. The team is projected to have upwards of $47MM in space heading into next year’s offseason and their gutted roster lead many to believe they’ll be in the running for first overall in 2022. Now equipped with eight picks in the first two rounds of the draft, the full rebuild has begun in Arizona.

All salary cap figures courtesy of CapFriendly.com

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was first to report the deal.

Montreal Canadiens| Newsstand| Utah Mammoth Christian Dvorak| Elliotte Friedman

41 comments

Montreal Canadiens Decline To Match Jesperi Kotkaniemi Offer Sheet

September 4, 2021 at 4:45 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson 32 Comments

The Montreal Canadiens are saying goodbye to one of their most promising young players in Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The team announced today that they won’t be matching the one-year, $6.1MM offer sheet tendered by the Carolina Hurricanes last weekend.

In return, the Canadiens are receiving Carolina’s first and third-round draft selections in the 2022 NHL Draft.

Carolina’s acquisition of Kotkaniemi marks the first successful offer sheet in the NHL since 2007 when the Edmonton Oilers successfully acquired Dustin Penner from the Anaheim Ducks. The move to acquire the former third-overall pick at $6.1MM seems pricey for what he’s produced so far in his career, and when you look at Carolina’s salary cap situation, it appears even worse. Now finally with a full roster, the team sits at $1.52MM over the salary cap. Considering the team entered the offseason with a large amount of cap space and still lost Dougie Hamilton and Alex Nedeljkovic, questions have been rightfully raised over Carolina’s asset management strategy. But just because Kotkaniemi is making $6.1MM this season, and is consequently owed a $6.1MM qualifying offer at the end of the season, doesn’t mean he’ll cost that much down the line for Carolina. Multiple rumours have emerged that a longer-term extension for Kotkaniemi in Carolina may emerge at a lower average annual value as negotiations remain amicable.

For Montreal, their already stagnant roster now faces a massive hole at center. The team’s acquisition of Cedric Paquette won’t be nearly enough to replace the departures of Phillip Danault and Eric Staal as well as Kotkaniemi, and they need answers at the centre-ice position. Luckily for them, they’ll likely be able to find that answer with the compensation they received for Kotkaniemi. With an overpayment in real money from Carolina comes an overpayment in compensation as well. The draft picks Montreal received are much more valuable than what they would have received had they just traded Kotkaniemi anywhere else. Those picks can either be sent straight-up or packaged for a center, of which there are many on the trade market. While Christian Dvorak would appear to be the frontrunner, Tomas Hertl and Evgeny Kuznetsov remain available for trade and could soften the blow of Montreal’s lost centers.

Regardless, it’s an exciting story at a time where not much news tends to cross the NHL wire. Kotkaniemi’s performance in a new system under a new coach will be a large storyline this season, as the prospect with a high pedigree aims to live up to his third-overall potential.

All salary cap figures per CapFriendly.com.

Carolina Hurricanes| Montreal Canadiens| Newsstand Jesperi Kotkaniemi

32 comments

Snapshots: Tkachuk, Stars, Garland

September 4, 2021 at 2:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

With Drake Batherson now signed, the Senators can squarely turn their focus to getting a new deal done with RFA winger Brady Tkachuk.  Speaking with reporters, including Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch, GM Pierre Dorion declined to comment on the status of negotiations, only stating that “We’ve had productive, positive discussions with Brady’s camp” which would contrast a recent report from TSN1200’s Shawn Simpson who relayed (Twitter link) that there is some frustration setting in with Tkachuk’s camp.

The 21-year-old could be eyeing Andrei Svechnikov’s eight-year, $62MM deal with Carolina as a legitimate comparable contract which would make him Ottawa’s highest-paid forward but would still keep him below Thomas Chabot’s $8MM AAV for the highest-paid player on the team.  As some of Ottawa’s top youngsters come up for new deals, trying to keep all of those below Chabot’s price tag would seem like a viable strategy for the Senators in an effort to keep their window for contention open as long as possible.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • Stars head coach Rick Bowness told Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News that forwards Tyler Seguin (hip and knee), Roope Hintz (groin), Alexander Radulov (core), and defenseman Joel Hanley (core) have all recovered from their respective injuries and surgeries and will be ready for training camp. Seguin, in particular, will be a welcome return as he was only able to suit up in three games last season, managing a pair of goals in those contests.  They’re still not fully healthy, however, as there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding goalie Ben Bishop’s future which is why Braden Holtby was surprisingly signed in free agency this summer.
  • While winger Conor Garland believed the Bruins might show interest in him, he told Matt Porter of the Boston Globe that his camp never heard from Boston when Arizona was shopping him around the league. The 25-year-old Scituate native had identified Boston, Toronto, and Los Angeles as potential fits but he wound up being moved to Vancouver instead where he quickly signed a five-year, $24.75MM contract.  Garland wouldn’t rule out the idea of playing for his hometown team down the road but it won’t be happening anytime soon.

Dallas Stars| Ottawa Senators| Snapshots Alexander Radulov| Ben Bishop| Brady Tkachuk| Conor Garland| Joel Hanley| Roope Hintz| Tyler Seguin

1 comment

PHR Mailbag: Hughes Brothers, Lundqvist, Domi, Caufield, Kings, Predictions

September 4, 2021 at 1:54 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include reuniting the Hughes brothers, Henrik Lundqvist, Max Domi, Cole Caufield’s production, the Kings’ offseason, plus playoff and crystal ball predictions.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Do you see the Hughes brothers all playing together on the same team someday? What would it take for that to happen via trade?

I don’t see it happening and it comes down to money.  Quinn Hughes is going to get very expensive very quickly.  If Jack Hughes pans out as expected, he’ll be expensive a year from now.  By the time Quinn becomes a free agent, Luke will be on his second contract which, you guessed it, could get expensive quickly if he puts up the points many think he will.  Dougie Hamilton might still be on the books at $9MM by then (depending on how long Quinn’s second contract is – is it a bridge or does it walk him to UFA right away?).

That likely takes the easiest scenario off the table.  Could Vancouver one day trade Quinn?  Sure, anything is possible.  But does New Jersey need a third puck-moving defender with Hamilton and Luke and again, can they even afford that on the cap?  Probably not and even if they could afford it, would they be willing to pay an extremely high price tag (multiple top picks and players) to make a strong spot (puck-moving defender) even stronger?  That’s probably not the best use of organizational resources even if it makes for a nice story.

I don’t see New Jersey moving Jack and Luke to Vancouver, not with the cap challenges the Canucks are heading towards.  And all three winding up on an entirely different team is even harder to see happening.

Could it happen later in their careers when they’re not all on big-money contracts?  That’s certainly a little more realistic but even then, the safe bet is to say it doesn’t happen outside of them playing some summer scrimmages in the offseason on the same team.

Eaton Harass: Is Lundqvist the best goalie to never win a Cup?

He’s definitely in that mix.  He’s a sure-fire Hall of Famer but there are others that are in the Hall of Fame that have to be considered.

Tony Esposito played in a much different era so it’s hard to directly compare the numbers but he played on some very good Chicago teams that just couldn’t get over the hump, much like the Rangers.  Roberto Luongo didn’t always have good teams in front of him but was one of the premier goalies of his generation, the same as Lundqvist.  I’d put Lundqvist ahead of Curtis Joseph and Ron Hextall who should also get at least some consideration here as well.

I’d say Esposito and his slightly more decorated track record would get the edge here but it’s not really a competition to be the best of that group. Lundqvist was a high-end goalie that never won a Stanley Cup that will one day be in the Hall of Fame.  I know lots of people like ‘Best of’ lists but I don’t think being ranked first, second, third, or tenth matters all that much.

@MarkPaleo: Is Max Domi a possible solution for the Bruins’ 2nd line center question?

In the short term, no.  He’s going to miss at least the first six weeks or so of the season if not longer after undergoing shoulder surgery in early June.  There’s also the $5.3MM AAV which is one they can’t really afford.  Yes, he’s eligible for LTIR but there would be a cap crunch as soon as he was able to return.

But at the trade deadline?  That could be a really interesting option.  At that point, Domi will have come back and shown if he’s capable of still being a top-six piece (particularly at center, after spending time the last two years on the wing) and the money will be easier to fit in with how much time will have passed and Columbus likely being more willing to retain at that time.  Boston has looked at reclamation rental projects in the past at the deadline in the hopes that a change of scenery gets them going and Domi would certainly fit that particular strategy.  If they haven’t filled that spot by the deadline, he’d make some sense for them.

wu tang killa beez: What do you expect from Cole Caufield in Montreal in a full NHL season? Can he score 30 goals?

In a single season at some point in his career?  30 is more than doable; it’d be a bit surprising if he didn’t get to that milestone a few times at least.  He’s undersized but it’s hard to teach the scoring touch that Caufield has and he certainly didn’t look out of place during Montreal’s playoff run.

Now, if you’re asking about next season, that’s a little less certain.  Don’t get me wrong, he could get 30 in 2021-22 but I don’t know if I’d necessarily predict that.  The Canadiens are a score-by-committee type of team and outside of a hot start last year, they don’t typically score a lot.  They have some decent weapons on the wing with him, Brendan Gallagher, Mike Hoffman, and Tyler Toffoli and that might result in some flatter scoring numbers.  All of those players could (and if healthy, probably should) pass the 20-goal mark but because of that depth, none might reach 30 next season.

Winter in Colorado: Do you think the veteran additions and developing prospects will be enough for the LA Kings to make the playoffs this season? Is 3rd in the relatively weak Pacific Division possible?

bigalval: Can the Kings make the playoffs this year the team looks a lot better and the kids are coming up.

There’s no denying that the Kings are much-improved after the additions of Phillip Danault, Viktor Arvidsson, and Alexander Edler.  The depth is a lot better and some players who were in spots higher than they should have been will be pushed back down which, from a development standpoint, isn’t a bad thing either.  There’s also no denying that the Pacific Division isn’t all that strong and it is definitely possible that these additions plus some internal improvement from their youngsters could be enough to get them over the hump and into that third seed.  I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened.

That said, I’m not going to predict it’ll happen.  Last month, I made my very quick predictions for the playoffs and the Kings weren’t in that group.  I think Edler will help their back end but it’s still not a particularly strong group.  I don’t have a lot of confidence that Calvin Petersen and Jonathan Quick can be a playoff-caliber goaltending tandem, especially with that back end not being an impactful one.  They’ll score more but after being 27th in that department last season, that’s a low bar to clear.  I could see the Kings being fourth or fifth in the division but if five teams from the Central make it (a definite possibility), that would have Los Angeles just on the outside looking in.  Bright days are soon coming but I think that jump ahead is another year away.

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Joe422: 3 in and 3 out…. What 3-teams made the playoffs last season will not make it this season and who replaces them?

Let’s revisit those predictions linked above.  I actually have four teams from the 2020-21 playoffs missing as things stand this season – two from the East and two from the West being replaced by one from the East and three from the West thanks to the one-time divisional alignment from a year ago.

Out of the teams missing, let’s start with the Stanley Cup finalists in Montreal.  They’ll score more this season but they’re going to struggle defensively without Danault and Shea Weber.  Their depth down the middle is already shaky – we’ll see later today if it gets even weaker – and it’s hard to see them making it back in.  Pittsburgh is a team that has a narrow gap between contending and declining.  I don’t think they’ve tangibly improved and their goaltending is still a giant question mark.  Unless Tristan Jarry picks up his play, I think they just miss.  From the West, Nashville has certainly started to rebuild while Minnesota’s roster isn’t as strong as it was a year ago.  I also don’t see them staying in the top ten in goals scored and the end result is them taking a small step back.

As for who gets in, I expect Philadelphia to rebound.  More specifically, I expect Carter Hart to rebound and if that happens, they basically become a playoff team right then and there.  A largely healthy Dallas team (Ben Bishop is still out) should rebound, getting them into the mix in the Central.  Chicago has added enough that they should be able to at least grab a Wild Card spot, especially if both go to Central Division teams.  I’m going to put Vancouver in as well.  As much as I really don’t like the acquisition of Oliver Ekman-Larsson with the likely long-term cap consequences, their defense will be better this season and the addition of Conor Garland gives them another scoring threat.  Add that to a quietly good goalie tandem and there’s a recipe for a playoff appearance this season.

I still don’t think the big moves are done just yet and I don’t just mean the offer sheet answer so things could certainly change before the puck drops on the regular season next month.

The Duke: Old & New Crystal Ball, total points moving forward: Wennberg vs Bennett; Saad vs Zucker; Podkolzin vs Lucas Raymond; Owen Power vs Luke Hughes – and GAA: Vladar vs Skinner; Wallstedt vs Cossa.

1) I’m not going to predict Sam Bennett will stay over a point per game with Florida but I could see some 50-plus-point years from him.  I don’t see that from Alexander Wennberg who is more of a 30-point player.  Bennett’s a year younger but plays a more physical style that will wear down over time which creates some injury concerns so let’s say 350 for him and 250 for Wennberg.

2) Brandon Saad is a year younger than Jason Zucker and has five years left on his contract versus two for Zucker.  I think Zucker is the more talented player when both are on their games but if he doesn’t rebound soon with Pittsburgh, he won’t get the top-six opportunities that Saad will.  Let’s go with 250 for Saad, 200 for Zucker.

3) I think Vasili Podkolzin’s offensive upside is a bit overstated although he’s going to be a key piece soon for Vancouver.  As for Raymond, I feel he has the potential for more points so let’s say 620-525?  Guessing production 15 years down the road is a little challenging for the crystal ball.

4) If Luke is like his brother Quinn offensively as some think he can be, I think he beats Power on the points front.  Of course, that’s a big if.  Of course, it’s Power’s all-around game and the potential to be an every-situation number one blueliner that made him the number one pick.  I’ll say 625-585 for Hughes; Power plays a little longer to bring the totals closer.

5) I’m honestly not sold that Stuart Skinner is going to have any sort of viable NHL career so his GAA could wind up somewhere in the low threes in limited action.  Daniel Vladar is going to have a chance to play behind a decent back end in Calgary on a Darryl Sutter-coached team that will be defense-first.  That will help his career average in the long run which could be in the mid-to-high twos.

6) This is a fun one.  Like many, I was surprised when Sebastian Cossa went ahead of Jesper Wallstedt on draft day but both should be starters for a long time in this league.  That means their GAAs are likely to be at least somewhat similar in the mid-twos.  I had Wallstedt ahead of Cossa so give him the nod by a few hundredths if you’re looking for me to break the virtual tie.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Central Notes: Predators, Francouz, Rossi

September 4, 2021 at 12:45 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

After three straight early playoff exits, the Predators have embarked on somewhat of a reset this summer that saw long-term pieces Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Ellis head elsewhere.  Speaking with Gentry Estes of The Tennessean, GM David Poile indicated that he wants to avoid the dreaded middle and is okay with taking a step back to move out of that spot in the standings:

We’ve made the playoffs, which is a good thing, but we haven’t been able to win a playoff round. I’m proud of the fact that we’ve made the playoffs, but if that’s all we were being judged by, then all these moves that I made, I probably would not have made. Because we don’t want to be in this middle. We want to be better. When I say better or worse, I want to be better, but I understand the consequences of these trades.

While the Preds did re-sign Mikael Granlund, their other moves have certainly been made with an eye on getting younger and giving opportunities to some of their younger players, a strategy that will likely hurt them in the short term but help in the long run.

More from the Central:

  • Avalanche goaltender Pavel Francouz has fully recovered from the lower-body injury that caused him to miss all of last season, reports Adrian Dater of Colorado Hockey Now (Twitter link). The 31-year-old has just one full NHL season under his belt but clearly, Colorado is comfortable with the expectation that he’ll be able to return at a similar level as 2019-20 as they didn’t add any extra depth between the pipes although they did re-sign Jonas Johansson who briefly served as their backup last season.
  • Although Marco Rossi missed all of last season after being diagnosed with myocarditis following a bout with COVID-19, Wild GM Bill Guerin told Michael Russo of The Athletic in an interview on KFAN (audio link) that he’s not ruling out the possibility of the 19-year-old breaking camp with Minnesota this season. Rossi, the ninth-overall pick in 2020, suited up for Austria for their three games in the Olympic qualifiers last month, notching an assist.

Colorado Avalanche| David Poile| Minnesota Wild| Nashville Predators Marco Rossi| Pavel Francouz

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