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Kevin Fiala, Minnesota Wild Exchange Arbitration Figures

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The next arbitration hearing is scheduled for Tuesday between the Minnesota Wild and restricted free agent Kevin Fiala. The two sides have now submitted figures, though they can continue to negotiate a contract up until the moment the hearing starts. According to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, Fiala has filed for $6.25MM while the Wild have submitted for $4MM. Michael Russo of The Athletic notes that Fiala actually filed for a one-year term, meaning he will still be a restricted free agent next season.

It is important to remember that the two filings are meant to be the absolute limits of a negotiation, and arbitration almost always results in a contract somewhere in the middle. The midpoint of these two filings would be a $5.125MM cap hit for Fiala next season.

Given that it was the Wild who elected salary arbitration in this case, the term of the award was actually up to Fiala. He could have chosen a two-year deal to get him to unrestricted free agency, but by filing for just one he has essentially bet on himself. If say, the two sides can’t agree on a multi-year deal before Tuesday and a $5MM contract is awarded, Fiala will be owed that much as a qualifying offer again next offseason. He would then be able to file for arbitration again and earn a raise, still getting to the UFA market at the age of 26. The only real risk in this method is if the Wild decide not to qualify him for whatever reason, but unless there is a major injury or huge decline in play, that would be unlikely.

In fact, Fiala is likely worthy of a much more expensive contract after his recent performances. In 2019-20 he truly broke out, scoring 23 goals and 54 points in just 64 games for the Wild. At that point, he was still averaging just over 15 minutes a game. This year he was given more ice time and more responsibility and rewarded the Minnesota coaching staff with 20 goals and 40 points in 50 games. He posted outstanding possession statistics, even if they were helped by strong offensive deployment, and represented an outstanding one-two punch with rookie Kirill Kaprizov.

The question of course, as it will be for every contract the Wild sign over the next few years, is how they can fit in Fiala with such a huge cap penalty coming. Minnesota will face a $14.74MM cap charge in both 2023-24 and 2024-25 thanks to the buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, making it very difficult to fit in the rest of the roster. Given the team still has Kaprizov to sign, it’s hard to know exactly how much room they’ll have. Perhaps that’s why a one-year arbitration award for Fiala isn’t the worst outcome, with the two sides restarting negotiations a year from now.

Detroit Red Wings, Adam Erne Avoid Arbitration

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The Detroit Red Wings have agreed to terms on a two-year deal with Adam Erne, avoiding arbitration. The two sides had a hearing scheduled for August 21, but, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, will enter into a two-year contract that carries an average annual value of $2.1MM.

Erne, 26, is coming off the best offensive season of his career, scoring 11 goals and 20 points in just 45 games. The physical forward played a bigger role on the Red Wings, even getting some powerplay time, and rewarded the club with a pretty strong year all things considered. While he is likely never going to be a full-time top-six option on a contending team, Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman obviously sees him as a valuable piece to the puzzle at the moment.

The key here is that the deal buys out just one year of unrestricted free agency, continuing the Detroit model of not committing long-term deals to anyone in the current group. No one on the team is signed past the 2023-24 season, with only Jakub Vrana and Michael Rasmussen even inked that long. The Red Wings are maintaining cap flexibility as they build up the prospect base, and this latest deal for Erne is just another one that could potentially be traded down the line.

If the team fails to take a step forward by the 2023 trade deadline, they’ll have Erne, Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi, Pius Suter, and others to deal as rentals. If there is a big improvement by the young core and the team is contending for the playoffs, a player like Erne can be retained as a relatively inexpensive bottom-six option.

Metropolitan Notes: Capitals, Clarke, Brylin

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While the awkward silence from the New York Islanders, who are presumed to have unannounced deals in place with a number of free agents, has drawn headlines this summer, it is the inactivity from the Washington Capitals that should perhaps be gaining more attention. It seems that the oddsmakers have taken notice, even if the national media have not. The current odds from BetMGM, adjusted following the Expansion Draft, NHL Draft, and free agency rush, have the Capitals at 25-1 to win the Stanley Cup in 2021-22. While this may not seem so bad, as Washington is tied with reigning Cup finalist Montreal, they are also tied with the New York Rangers – for the fourth-best mark in the Metropolitan Division. While the Capitals are just outside the top ten league-wide in terms of championship expectations, they first need to make the playoffs to get there. The Carolina Hurricanes (14-1), Pittsburgh Penguins (18-1), and New York Islanders (20-1) top the division’s best bets, which implies that MGM believes that they will receive the automatic bids from the Metropolitan Division.

This isn’t unreasonable; this past season the ’Canes won the Central Division, the Penguins won the East Division, and the Isles advanced to league semifinals. Meanwhile, the Capitals were easily dispatched in the first round by the Boston Bruins. The real surprise, though maybe it shouldn’t be, is that MGM feels the Rangers have drawn even with the Capitals. New York is a young, up-and-coming team while the Capitals are an older team that has lost Brenden Dillon and Michael Raffl and is listening to offers for Evgeny Kuznetsov. Yet, many would still say there is a gap between the two clubs. The oddsmakers feel differently. With three bids from the division and two wild card spots, with four Atlantic Division teams holding better odds than Washington and the Canadiens holding even, it will not be easy this season for the Capitals to even reach the postseason out of the Eastern Conference, nevertheless take home another Stanley Cup. It doesn’t help that they have made no improvements this summer.

  • Capitals prospect goaltender Chase Clark has made his college commitment. The 2021 sixth-round pick out of the NCDC’s Jersey Hitmen has signed on with Quinnipiac University, the Hitmen announced. Clark will join the Bobcats for the 2022-23 season after suiting up in the USHL this year. Clark will return to the Tri-City Storm this season, where he played three games last year, before heading off to college. While the NCDC is usually more of a feeder league for the USHL, NAHL, and prep school level rather than a direct source of NHL talent, Clark did enough this season with a .935 save percentage and 1.92 GAA to earn a flier from the Capitals late in the draft. He will be a long-term project for Washington, but developing at a strong program like Quinnipiac, Clark could turn out to be a solid prospect.
  • The New Jersey Devils re-located their AHL affiliate from Binghamton to Utica and now coach Sergei Brylin will make the move as well. The Utica Comets have announced that Brylin will join head coach Kevin Dineen’s staff as an assistant, transitioning from his role as associate coach with the Binghamton Devils. Brylin, who played exclusively with the Devils in his 13-year NHL career, has been with the organization as a minor league coach since 2012, joining the former Albany Devils immediately after retiring from playing, then in the KHL. The 47-year-old is likely in line for a promotion to AHL head coach or NHL assistant coach the next time a spot opens up.

Red Wings Sign Sebastian Cossa To Entry-Level Deal

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The Detroit Red Wings traded up in the first round of the 2021 NHL Draft to select goaltender Sebastian Cossa and now they aren’t wasting any time getting him under contract. The team has announced that Cossa has inked his three-year entry-level contract. Financial terms were not disclosed.

The Red Wings and Cossa is a pairing that seemed destined by fate. For a long time, it seemed as though Swedish standout Jesper Wallstedt was locked in as the top goaltender of the 2021 draft class and could possibly even be a top-ten pick. It also was predictable that Detroit would select a top goalie this year, the missing piece in their deep and talented pipeline. With the Red Wings struggling through another difficult season, the team was going to end up with a draft slot that allowed them to take Wallstedt if they wanted. Yet, as the season wore on and Cossa followed up a strong 2019-20 season in the WHL with even better numbers in 2020-21, he began to close the gap with Wallstedt. With two potential first-round goalies, this also lowered Wallstedt’s own draft stock and meant that Detroit did not need to use their No. 6 overall pick to land a goalie if they could move back or find another selection. After adding another first-round pick in the Anthony Mantha trade, many expected that the Red Wings would be able to use that late selection to take Wallstedt or, if he had already been selected, Cossa. Instead, Detroit traded No. 23, No. 48, and No. 138 to swap with the Dallas Stars at No. 15. But instead of taking Wallstedt, as many had long expected, the Red Wings selected Cossa, whose meteoric rise was responsible for either goalie still being there in the first place. (Wallstedt would be selected five picks later, as the Minnesota Wild moved up to get him as well.)

While Detroit was clearly happy to get their man in Cossa and have now committed to him with an entry-level deal, expect the impressive prospect to return to junior next season. Even though Cossa’s .941 save percentage and 1.57 GAA for the Edmonton Oil Kings last season was nothing short of spectacular and suggests that he may not have much development left to do at the junior level, the performance came in a very small sample size. The 6’6″ netminder needs to get back to a starter’s schedule and show that he can play at that level consistently. The pros are no place for an 18-year-old goalie, especially one with only 52 games of major junior experience. The Red Wings and Cossa can be excited about the future while remaining patient in the present.

Vancouver Canucks Sign Jason Dickinson

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The Vancouver Canucks have avoided salary arbitration with recently-acquired forward Jason Dickinson. The club has announced that their new addition has signed a three-year contract with a $2.65MM AAV. The deal buys out one UFA year from Dickinson, who had filed for arbitration with a hearing set for August 20. PuckPedia reports that the deal breaks down as follows:

2021-22: $1.5MM + $500K Signing Bonus
2022-23: $2.7MM
2023-24: $3.25MM

Dickinson, 26, came over from the Dallas Stars early last month when it became clear that they could not protect him in the Expansion Draft and grew worried that they would lose him for nothing to the Seattle Kraken. It would have been an interesting theory to test, as the Kraken ended up setting their sights on top UFA defender Jamie Oleksiak, who they selected and signed to a long-term deal. Oleksiak’s availability as an impending free agent was something that Seattle GM Ron Francis likely planned on for some time and he may not have changed his plans even if Dickinson was available.

The Stars’ paranoia was the Canucks’ gain, as they added a versatile, two-way forward who should fit perfectly in head coach Travis Green’s system and it only took a third-round pick to do so. Vancouver clearly feels confident in Dickinson’s place on the team, as they have given him a multi-year deal at nearly double his previous $1.5MM AAV with a steep escalation in salary each year. Any resolution would have been a better alternative to an arbitration hearing, which would have been a difficult start to a new relationship. To Dickinson’s credit, he did prove over the past three years in Dallas, despite limited games and a bottom-six role, that he was well worth a raise. The hard-working forward flashed 30-point upside and special teams dependability while consistently winning puck battles and blocking shots. The type of player that a team can never have too many of, Dickinson hopes to provide the support that Vancouver needs to get back on track this season.

Los Angeles Kings At 50-Contract Limit

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Lost in the shuffle of the Los Angeles Kings’ recent signings of 2021 draft picks Brandt Clarke and Samuel Helenius and the extension of prospect defenseman Jacob Moverare is that the team has painted themselves into a corner with the league’s contract limit. An oft-overlooked rule in the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement is that no club can have more than 50 players signed to standard player contracts at one time for the current league year. Upon signing Moverare on Friday afternoon, the Kings hit that 50-contract mark. This may force the team to make a move before heading into the season without any flexibility.

There is an exception to the rule, but it will only be of minimal use at best to the Kings in mitigating their contract crunch. Similar to the entry-level slide rule, players aged 18 or 19 and signed to an ELC do not count against the 50-contract limit if assigned to their junior team, so long as they have not played in 11 NHL games that season. L.A. has four players who fit that age range: Quinton Byfield, Helge Grans, and the recently-signed Helenius and Clarke. However, the 2020 No. 2 overall pick Byfield is not going back to junior and Europeans Grans and Helenius were never selected in the CHL Import Draft and will not be playing junior in North America. That leaves only Clarke as a potential candidate to return to junior and save a roster spot. He technically does not count against the roster limit until playing in the requisite games, so L.A. is really at 49 contracts despite having 50 players signed; and it should stay that way. Though a talented top-ten pick, it is highly likely that Clarke will return to to the OHL’s Barrie Colts this season. In the event that he astounds in training camp and cracks the roster though, the Kings would be back at the 50-contract limit.

Even at 49 contracts, the Kings could still be looking to add some flexibility. L.A. has vowed to improve their roster this season, but could be handicapping themselves in trade talks and may even prevent themselves from taking full advantage of waivers with their limited roster flexibility. While the Kings too could lose players in early-season waivers, which would open up contract slots, that is not something they can depend on. Even if the club is content with their current roster and does not want to add any players early on, having no contract flexibility could hurt them down the road at the trade deadline or during the late-season college and junior free agency rushes. Look for L.A. to make a move at some point in time to add some flexibility, regardless of the end result with young Clarke.

The Tampa Bay Lighting (48 contracts with two potential exemptions) and the Toronto Maple Leafs and Vegas Golden Knights (47 contracts with one potential exemption) could be other teams looking to add some flexibility, not to mention some salary cap space.

Snapshots: NHLPA, Copp, Jagr

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The NHLPA has strongly encouraged its players to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and warned of the potential for loss of pay for those who don’t do so, reports Michael Russo and Katie Strang of The Athletic (subscription link).  The main scenario where this could happen is flying into Canada where border travel is facing heightened restrictions; commercial travelers will require proof of vaccination by the end of October and while NHL teams fly charter, they could be subjected to that same policy and not allowed into the country.  In that situation, teams could have the ability to withhold salaries for the players not allowed in.  Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly noted that over 85% of NHL players have been fully vaccinated already so this wouldn’t necessarily affect many players but it’s a scenario the NHLPA wants to prepare its membership for.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • Jets forward Andrew Copp acknowledged to reporters, including Postmedia’s Paul Friesen, that his preference was to sign a long-term deal. However, Winnipeg’s cap situation after some of their additions on the back end basically forced their hand and the two sides settled on a one-year, $3.64MM pact that will walk the 27-year-old to unrestricted free agency next summer.  With roughly $63.5MM tied up in a dozen players for 2022-23 per CapFriendly (excluding Bryan Little’s LTIR-bound contract), a strong showing next season could result in Copp playing his way out of Winnipeg entirely.
  • Veteran winger Jaromir Jagr will turn 50 late in the 2021-22 season and the future Hall of Famer will spend it playing with his hometown team in Kladno in the Czech Extraliga. The overwhelming majority of players hang up their skates by that age but in an interview with Pavel Barta of The Hockey News, the veteran indicated that he’s continuing to play out of obligation more than anything else.  Jagr happens to be the owner of the team and is worried about a loss of sponsorship that could put the team in jeopardy if he decided to call it a career.  While he isn’t the top scorer he once was, Jagr had a dozen points in 19 games last season to help lead Kladno back to the top level.

Islanders Sign Aatu Raty

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The Islanders may be holding off on announcing most of their free agent contracts but they aren’t delaying signing their prospects as they announced the signing of Aatu Raty to a three-year, entry-level deal.  Financial terms of the contract were not disclosed.

The 18-year-old was once viewed as a top prospect for the 2021 NHL Entry Draft but his stock slipped throughout the season, allowing New York to grab him with the 51st overall selection.  Raty spent the majority of last season with Karpat of the SM-liiga, notching three goals and three assists in 35 games while averaging 11:38 per contest.  He was more productive against his age group as he picked up eight points in seven contests in Finland’s junior level.

Raty is under contract with Karpat for next season already and while the Isles could bring him over and give him a chance at making the NHL roster (he won’t be eligible for the AHL because of his existing contract) but the likelier scenario is that he remains in Finland and takes aim at a bigger role with Karpat.  If that happens, his deal will slide and will have three years remaining on it next summer.

Flyers Sign Samu Tuomaala

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The Flyers have signed one of their picks from the 2021 draft class, announcing that they’ve inked winger Samu Tuomaala to a three-year, entry-level contract.  Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

The 18-year-old was the 46th-overall pick last month and is the first player from Philadelphia’s draft class to sign.  Tuomaala spent most of last season in Karpat’s junior league, notching 15 goals and 16 assists in 30 games although he did get into five games at the top level as well.  He also boosted his draft stock with a strong showing at the Under-18s, leading Finland in scoring with five goals and six assists in seven games, good for a tie for fifth in tournament scoring.

Tuomaala is already signed in Finland for next season and since he wasn’t a first-round selection, Philadelphia will have to either keep him on their NHL roster or send him back.  Where that will be remains to be seen as he could go to Karpat or to OHL Sudbury who drafted him in the CHL Import Draft.  The loan is almost certain to happen in which case his entry-level deal will slide a year meaning that Tuomaala will still have three years left on his contract this time next year.

PHR Mailbag: Devils, Kraken, Bruins Centers, Standings, Kuznetsov, Predictions, Chinakhov

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag including New Jersey’s summer movement, Seattle’s possible opening night lineup, Boston’s center situation, picking playoff teams, Evgeny Kuznetsov’s future with Washington, player predictions, and inserting the most surprising pick from the 2020 draft into the 2021 draft.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Did the Devils do enough this offseason to actually end this rebuild? Do you see them doing anything else this offseason?

Just so it’s mentioned, not long after this question was asked, New Jersey went out and added Tomas Tatar which is another notable move.  More on him shortly.

What’s the definition of ending the rebuild?  If it’s making the playoffs, the answer is no.  For me, this is the summer that starts the end of the rebuild.  Dougie Hamilton instantly gives them the high-impact defenseman they’ve lacked for a long time.  That’s a long-term building block in place that isn’t under the age of 23.  Ryan Graves is an effective blueliner that’s young enough to be part of the long-term core if things go well.  Tatar is a great fit for them; he’ll provide some veteran insulation for one of Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier and should raise the floor of that line.  His defensive skills are also understated given how effective of a two-way line he was on with Montreal.  He isn’t a long-term piece but he should elevate one of those two pivots which helps to end the rebuild.  Jonathan Bernier is a good fit to be the veteran mentor for Mackenzie Blackwood in the role that Corey Crawford was supposed to fill last year.  They won’t have elite goaltending but there shouldn’t be many off nights either.

I think they’re pretty much done this summer.  They still want to keep plenty of lineup spots for their younger players to give them more time to develop, another sign that the rebuild isn’t done just yet.  Once they can determine which ones will be part of the core and which are expendable, then it’ll be time for another round of veteran additions to further raise the floor.  That will be the signal that the intention will shift from the future to the present.

YzerPlan19: What does the Kraken opening night roster look like? Do they make any surprise additions before then? Who is the next William Karlsson breakout candidate?

I wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t another move or two by the start of the season but I’m thinking more in terms of moving a surplus defenseman and maybe taking on an expensive expiring contract but it wouldn’t be a player that would have a big role.  So with the roster as it currently stands, my attempt at an opening night lineup:

Jaden Schwartz – Alexander Wennberg – Jordan Eberle
Marcus Johansson – Jared McCann – Joonas Donskoi
Brandon Tanev – Calle Jarnkrok – Mason Appleton
Colin Blackwell – Morgan Geekie – Nathan Bastian

Yanni Gourde won’t be ready to start the year after recent shoulder surgery which creates a hole down the middle.  It has been a few years since Jarnkrok played regularly down the middle but I like him on that ‘checking’ line more than someone like Johansson (who struggles at center) or Geekie (not yet ready for that role).  I also expect Matthew Beniers to play in college next season.

Mark Giordano – Adam Larsson
Vince Dunn – Jamie Oleksiak
Carson Soucy – Jeremy Lauzon

Philipp Grubauer
Chris Driedger

In terms of a breakout candidate, McCann feels like the only one that fits.  He has shown flashes of living up to his offensive upside in the past but a bigger and more consistent role could be the key to him showing that skill level more consistently.

sovietcanuckistanian: Not 100% surprised by Krejci uprooting for his home, but it does sting. My query is; as much as I’d love to see an internal candidate pick up his mantle or one of the signings made by the front office pan out in that regard… I’m not going to hold my breath. What/who are realistic options to now plug a rather large hole in the lineup? In the event of a trade, besides DeBrusk going the other way, who would also be prime pickings to be dealt – should a decent trade option present itself?

VonBrewski: Sweeney’s comments of “2nd line center by committee” are absolutely shocking to me. He let Krejci paint him into a corner. I appreciate what Krejci did for the club but doesn’t it seem that with Krejci’s timing and Sweeney not having a backup plan that they both screwed the Bruins? Sweeney does not impress me as a GM at all.

Let’s combine the Krejci questions together.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news here but I don’t see much in the way of viable options for a top-six center to take David Krejci’s position on the roster.  There weren’t many in free agency and in terms of ones they can afford on the cap (in other words, not Jack Eichel or Evgeny Kuznetsov), pickings are pretty slim.  They’ve been speculatively linked to Arizona’s Christian Dvorak which certainly makes sense.  I just don’t think they have the pieces to make it work for the Coyotes.  With the 25-year-old carrying a $4.45MM AAV for four more years, the asking price is going to be high.  Speculatively, I’d expect something in the equivalent of two first-rounders – one pick and one prospect worth that.  They’d want more than that to take on Jake DeBrusk coming off the year he had and his salary too.  I think someone like Fabian Lysell would be a prospect that would fit one hole but with Boston being a team that’s expected to contend for a top-three seed, their projected 2022 first-rounder may be worse than what other teams are offering.  Dvorak would be a great fit but I’m not sure a trade lines up.  If Calgary winds up adding a center via trade, someone like Sean Monahan would make some sense as well although matching money would be a bit tougher.

Beyond that, I’m going to take Sweeney at his word and say it will be filled internally by committee.  Charlie Coyle is going to get the first chance and is the logical choice.  I think Nick Foligno will be an option at some point; he played down the middle frequently with Columbus when there were injuries.  I really liked the Erik Haula signing; he works well as a third center but at times, he has played well enough to be in the top six.  I’m not saying it won’t be an issue but as far as internal options go, they’re not particularly bad.

That’s not absolving GM Don Sweeney entirely, however.  This is something that they haven’t really planned for well over the past few years other than the Coyle acquisition since he had played down the middle with Minnesota at times.  But it’s not all his fault either.  When you’re picking at the back of the first round (or not at all in the first round having traded picks for win-now help), this is what happens.  There’s a reason that impact centers – even second-liners – are hard to come by.  Alexander Wennberg just got $4.5MM per season less than a calendar year after Columbus bought him out.  At best, he’s a second-liner.  Impact centers are the hardest piece to acquire and for a long time, Boston had two of them.  Yes, Sweeney failed in terms of not having a proven backup plan but that’s hardly a problem unique to the Bruins; many teams are or have been in the same situation.

As for Krejci, he earned the right to make the decision when he did and it sounds like he had at least informed Boston that he was leaning in that direction.  I don’t think there’s much blame for him in this.  And Sweeney certainly hasn’t closed the door on him returning at some point either although that’s easier said than done in terms of making it work on the salary cap.

mikedickinson: Major wave of free agency done… Give me your top eight in the East and top eight in the West after the additions and subtractions of players.

Subject to change as I don’t think all of the notable moves on the trade front are all done just yet, here’s a quick guess at the playoff teams as things stand (in no particular order).

Atlantic: Tampa Bay, Boston, Florida
Metropolitan: Carolina, Washington, NY Islanders
East Wild Cards: Toronto, Philadelphia

Central: Colorado, Winnipeg, St. Louis
Pacific: Vegas, Edmonton, Vancouver
West Wild Cards: Dallas, Chicago

2012orioles: Capitals have taken back the idea of trading Kuznetsov. Is this just a tactic to get a better return? Or will he truly be a Capital opening night?

I don’t think it’s a tactic.  As much as there is some negativity surrounding Evgeny Kuznetsov, he’s still a legitimate top-six center and when he’s on, he’s still a top-liner.  They can’t afford to give away that type of talent at a steep discount with an aging Nicklas Backstrom and Lars Eller (who is much better on the third line than the second) in the wings; Connor McMichael isn’t ready yet.

On the flip side, other teams aren’t going to want to pay top dollar with how last year went, especially with a $7.8MM price tag for four more years which looks like above-market value at this point.  There’s definitely a market for Kuznetsov but it’s more a swap of big contracts in the hopes that the change of scenery gets them going.  Is that the type of deal that they should really be doing?  I don’t think so.

They’ve found a way to get cap compliant for next season so they’re not in a spot where they have to move him.  If they don’t get fair value, they can simply hold on to him.  I don’t think he’d fetch fair value in a trade so I don’t think this is a tactic by any stretch.  I expect Kuznetsov will be in a Washington uniform for their opener.

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