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Poll: Impact Of The Estimated Cap Increase

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Earlier this week, Commissioner Gary Bettman and Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly spoke with the media about many different league topics. Perhaps the biggest news to come out of the press conference was Daly’s estimation of the salary cap for next season. Daly believes that the salary cap will fall somewhere between $78MM and $82MM, meaning that there will be a significant increase in the salary cap. The cap limit has increased by $2MM or less in each of the past three seasons, but the low point of the estimated range would already be a $3MM increase over the 2017-18 cap number. If it ends up near the top of the range, it will likely be the largest jump in the salary cap in league history.

Whatever the result, the cap increase will undoubtedly affect this off-season. Prior to Daly’s projection, teams like the Los Angeles Kings, Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, and Tampa Bay Lightning were going to face an immense cap crunch this summer and likely would have been forced to shed salary. Those teams can now breathe easier. However, teams on the lower end of the salary spectrum who don’t spend to the cap, such as the Carolina Hurricanes and Arizona Coyotes, will find it even harder to catch up in a market that that has lessened its grip on the stronger, higher payroll teams. With a higher cap comes salary inflation, which is another struggle for small market teams. The cap increase may also allow for some of the bigger talked-about trades and free agent movement – John Tavares, Erik Karlsson, Phil Kessel, ect. –  to happen. However, the flip side is that a salary cap increase gives teams incentive to add, but not subtract and could lessen the amount of total trades we see this summer.

What do you think? Is this potentially historic increase in the salary cap ceiling a good thing for the league?

Bruins Notes: Free Agents, Czarnik, Injuries, Draft

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Boston Bruins GM Don Sweeney spoke with the media today from the NHL Draft Combine in Buffalo and was very up front about the team’s plans this off-season. The Bruins exceeded expectations this season with a young team that finished with one of the best records in the NHL. Sweeney has previously stated that he would like to return many of the team’s impending unrestricted free agents – Anton Khudobin, Riley Nash, Rick Nash, Tommy Wingels, Tim Schaller, Nick Holden, and Austin Czarnik – but due to salary cap restraints and a promising prospect crop in the AHL in need of opportunity, he did not expect that all would be back. Today, Sweeney went in a different direction, confirming that the team would not offer new contracts to several other free agents: Brian Gionta, Kenny Agostino, and Paul Postma. The announcement should come as no surprise, as the trio all underwhelmed in Boston this season. A late addition to the team for the stretch run and postseason, Gionta looked as if he would have been better off retiring after the Olympics. The veteran forward contributed only seven points in 20 regular season games and played in just one playoff game, in which he was a liability against the fast-paced Tampa Bay Lightning. Gionta is likely to call it quits for good this off-season. Agostino, the 2017 AHL MVP, not only made little difference in Boston with just one point in five games, but finished the minor league season in Providence with 30 points less than his MVP campaign in only one less game. Agostino will need to search for a new home for the third straight summer. Postma, while not necessarily a disappointment in Boston, ended up being of little use to the team. The relative health of the Bruins’ four right-handed defenseman and the emergence of rookie Matt Grzelcyk on the left side made Postma the #8 option for much of the year. He was unable to even retain that role after the Bruins acquired Holden at the trade deadline. Overall, Postma played in 14 games in Boston, recording just one point, before clearing waivers and being assigned to the AHL, where he played another 17 games with Providence in the regular season and postseason. The long-time Winnipeg Jets defender will be on the hunt for a more regular NHL role next year, if he can find one.

  • Sweeney briefly touched on the situation with Czarnik, which has put the Bruins in somewhat of a pickle. Czarnik, 25, played in 49 games as a rookie with Boston in 2016-17, but lost out on a roster spot this year to the likes of fellow youngsters Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen, Anders Bjork, and Sean Kuraly. Czarnik managed to play in ten games for the Bruins, and looked good doing so with four points, but roster restrictions forced him back to the AHL each time. In the minors, Czarnik was unstoppable with 69 points in 64 games – good enough for third in the AHL scoring race. It was an impressive performance, but still not good enough to vault Czarnik back to the top of a Bruins’ prospect pipeline that is very deep, especially at center. Ideally, the Bruins would have liked to deal Czarnik as a restricted free agent with his value at its highest. However, as a 25-year-old with three pro seasons under his belt but less than 80 NHL games played, Czarnik instead qualifies for Group 6 unrestricted free agency per the NHL CBA and is free to sign with any team. Sweeney expressed that both the team and Czarnik have not closed the door on an extension, but that he feels Czarnik is “intrigued by what may exist elsewhere”. There will surely be a market for the swift, play-making forward and a return to Boston seems unlikely.
  • Sweeney also updated the injury status of his team, revealing that banged-up checkers Schaller and Noel Acciari both underwent surgery following the season. The Bruins’ fourth line, while not much of an offensive threat, was one of the best defensively this season. However, their play began to tail off in the postseason and the major injuries for Schaller and Acciari certainly lend some explanation to that trend. The duo were just two of myriad injuries for Boston, but join only Brandon Carlo in going under the knife. Sweeney stated that the rest of the injured – Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Backes, DeBrusk, Nash, and Nash –  will all avoid surgery for now.
  • Finally, Sweeney responded to a question about whether or not he would try to trade back into the first round of the NHL Draft next month. The Bruins sent their first-rounder to the New York Rangers in the Rick Nash deal and do not own any other team’s pick. Sweeney seemed hesitant to promise anything, saying that it is “hard” to trade back in, but did add that “you never know what some team may want to do”. In a draft class that many feels runs out of elite prospects after the first  15 or so selections, Boston may not be scrambling to trade current or future assets for a first-round pick anyway. With a late second and an early third from the Florida Panthers, the Bruins should be able to add two players with similar career projections to some late first-round picks. Even if they don’t get a future star, the Boston system is one of the best in the league with more than enough talent pushing for play time in the NHL as it is.

Vegas Re-Signs Tomas Hyka And Zac Leslie

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The Vegas Golden Knights are keeping busy. The Western Conference champs used today’s break in the Stanley Cup Final to take care of business off the ice. The team announced that they have re-signed impending restricted free agents Tomas Hyka and Zac Leslie to one-year extensions. Hyka’s contract carries the minimum $650K NHL salary, but an elevated $250K AHL salary, while Leslie agreed to a $675K NHL value with a more common $75K  AHL salary. While neither player had a major role for the team this season, the Knights have high hopes for both.

Hyka, 25, was one of Vegas’ first signings as a franchise. The former Czech pro made the jump to North America to sign with the Knights on June 1st of last year and was one of only three players to join the team prior to the Expansion Draft. Hyka showed a lot of promise in his first NHL season, despite only playing in ten games with the Knights. The skilled forward posted outstanding numbers in the AHL, recording 48 points in 50 games, and added another three points in the NHL. Hyka had previously been drafted by the Los Angeles Kings out of the QMJHL in 2012, but was never signed and became free to join Vegas. It’s clear now that the Kings erred in their decision, as Hyka has the makings of a legitimate NHL forward who will likely make the Knights’ roster out of camp next season.

Leslie, another Kings draft pick, did sign with the team after being selected in the sixth round the year after Hyka. However, his offensive tendencies from his junior days in the OHL had failed to translate to the pro level in three seasons in the AHL, so L.A. dealt him to Vegas in early February for nothing more than future considerations. Leslie’s performance improved greatly when he joined the AHL’s Chicago Wolves, as he registered 17 points in his final 27 regular season games – and was a positive player for the first time in his pro career – before kicking in another three points in three postseason games. The 24-year-old rearguard has always been considered a system fit, but may have found the perfect landing spot as a depth option for Vegas.

Ryan Callahan Out Five Months Following Shoulder Surgery

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The Tampa Bay Lightning let some coaches go today, and now have announced that they’ll likely be without Ryan Callahan for the beginning of the season as well. Callahan underwent surgery today on his shoulder, and will be out for approximately five months.

It’s been a rough few seasons for Callahan, who has fallen completely out of touch with the 20-goal, 40-point player of his youth. The former New York Rangers forward had just 18 points this season as he continued to battle injury and found himself on the fourth line. Still an effective energy player and penalty killer, he nevertheless is one of the most overpaid players in the league with a current cap hit of $5.8MM. The Lightning don’t seem to mind as Callahan is an effective part of their leadership group, but as they continue to navigate the salary cap it might become a problem.

This injury removes the possibility that Callahan could be bought out, and also likely keeps him out for at least the first month of the season. That makes the summer even tougher for GM Steve Yzerman, who will have to plan for his veteran forward’s eventual return and leave enough cap room to pay him once he comes off long-term injured reserve (if he ever receives that designation in the first place). The Lightning don’t have a ton of key free agents this summer other than J.T. Miller, but are looking at extensions to Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Ryan McDonagh, Anton Stralman and Jake Dotchin in the summer of 2019.

Still, the focus from today’s surgery will be on Callahan and the work he’ll have to put in to return to the Lightning in time to help their 2018-19 season. The team is expected to be a contender for the Stanley Cup once again, and need as many depth forwards as possible to get through what should be a very competitive Atlantic Division. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers should still be competitive, while the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens could take big steps forward. Even Detroit and Ottawa could bounce back if things go their way, meaning Tampa Bay can’t afford many more injuries like this, even to the players lower in their lineup.

Callahan’s absence does mean an opportunity for some other player, and the Lightning have several ready to make the leap. Anthony Cirelli likely secured a full-time position on the team with a good stretch run, and others like Boris Katchouk, Taylor Raddysh and Mathieu Joseph could be close to NHL-ready. Even with the team’s recent trade to acquire McDonagh from the New York Rangers, they still have a boatload of prospects that could be impact players in the NHL. The question will be how does the team fit Callahan back in after he returns from injury, especially if a younger player has performed well in his absence.

Free Agent Focus: Ottawa Senators

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Free agency is now a little more than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of Ottawa’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: D Cody Ceci – While Ceci may not be universally loved by the traditional scouting or analytics community, his role on the Senators is clear. He’s expected to anchor the shutdown second pair and allow Erik Karlsson’s unit to play more offensively against weaker competition. Ceci logged over 23 minutes a night last season, easily registering more short-handed time than any other player for the Senators. His 2:46 of penalty killing time every night was a minute more than any defenseman expected to be with the club next season, with only Dion Phaneuf (now with the Kings) and Johnny Oduya (free agent) closer than Ben Harpur’s 1:43 average.

That’s a heavy load for Ceci under noted defensive coach Guy Boucher, and one that has limited any offensive upside he showed as a young player. Ceci recorded just 19 points last season, with only 14 of those coming at even-strength. That doesn’t give him a lot of firepower when going into contract negotiations, as defensive metrics are harder to argue. Still, he should see a raise on the $2.8MM he earned in 2017-18, especially if he signs long-term. Ceci is on track to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2020 since he started his career so young, meaning anything longer than a two-year contract will be buying out UFA years.

F Mark Stone – Though Ceci is important, it all comes down to Stone this summer for the Senators as they look to lock up their best offensive player. Any contract Stone signs will send him to unrestricted free agency at its conclusion, meaning both sides will probably be looking for a long-term deal. The 26-year old is coming off arguably his best season even though he played in just 58 games due to injury, as he was more than a point-per-game player during those contests. With 62 points on the year he registered his fourth consecutive 20+ goal, 50+ point season and is one of the league’s top takeaway artists, able to strip the puck from unsuspecting defensemen with ease.

Nearly everyone that watches the Senators on a regular basis realizes that Stone is an elite player in the NHL, but unfortunately for the club (and their frustrated ownership) that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s very well-known around the league to fans of other teams. That might help them in negotiations, as his lack of All-Star notoriety may keep his cap hit relatively reasonable. After earning an average of $3.5MM for the past three seasons, it’s not out of the question that he could double his salary should he sign long-term, and end up with a contract like Evander Kane’s recent seven-year, $49MM deal.

Other RFAs: D Fredrik Claesson, G Chris Driedger, F Nick Moutrey, F Nick Paul

Key Unrestricted Free Agent: D Chris Wideman – If Ceci has been overused in his time in Ottawa, the opposite could be said for Wideman who despite good possession statistics and excellent offensive pedigree has averaged just under 14 minutes a night during his Senators career. This season was even more disappointing for the 28-year old defenseman, as he tore his hamstring in November and played only 16 games all year. He had eight points in those 16 contests, showing off the ability that made him a 61-point player in the AHL in 2014-15, but never could return before the end of the year despite his hard rehab schedule.

Wideman seems like he’s destined to go unsigned by the Senators, unless of course they’ve made the decision to trade Karlsson after all. If they do end up moving their captain, bringing back a good puck-moving right-handed defenseman like Wideman makes a lot of sense. Otherwise there isn’t a lot of room for him on a club that looks like it will have at least six NHL defensemen already under contract. Perhaps since he missed most of the season Wideman wouldn’t be looking for much of a raise on his $800K salary from 2017-18, but with the free agent market thin on talent from the right side there ought to be plenty of suitors for his services come July 1.

Other UFAs: F Tyler Randell, F Mike Blunden, F Max Reinhart

Projected Cap Space: Ottawa only has around $60MM committed for next season, and with the cap ceiling expected to climb to something around $80MM there is plenty of room for Stone and Ceci to be re-signed without hamstringing the team on the free agent market. That said, the Senators have never been a team to spend heavily on big name free agents and have an owner that sets an internal budget separate from the league’s cap. After a season at the bottom of the league without playoff revenue, it’s not clear how flush with cash the Senators will be this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Calgary Flames Name Geoff Ward, Ryan Huska Assistant Coaches

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The Calgary Flames have a new coaching group for the 2017-18 season, with Bill Peters at the head. Today, the team announced that Geoff Ward and Ryan Huska have been hired as Peters’ assistants.

Ward had spent the last three seasons with the New Jersey Devils, but had interviewed for the Flames head coaching job in 2016 before the team eventually hired Glen Gulutzan. The 56-year old will likely be in charge of fixing the team’s powerplay, a unit that ended up 28th in the league last season with just a 16% success rate. With players like Johnny Gaudreau and Dougie Hamilton that number should easily be much higher, and Ward will be tasked with developing the new strategy.

Huska on the other hand is a homegrown coaching talent that had been the head coach of the Stockton Heat/Adirondack Flames for the past four years. The 42-year old was a third-round pick by the Chicago Blackhawks in 1993, but ended up playing just a single NHL game in his short career. After finding great success in the WHL as the coach of the Kelowna Rockets, the AHL was a tougher assignment. Huska will end his AHL coaching career (for now) with a 135-118-27 record, and only one playoff appearance (that ended in first round exit).

He’ll be asked to run the penalty kill this season and help the defensemen, though Peters is obviously expected to also be a big part of fixing the Flames blue line. Going into the season Calgary looked to have one of the deepest and most talented defensive groups in the NHL, but many failed to live up to expectations and struggled to find any consistency. Peters has been known for some time as a defensive guru, though his results on that front are far from conclusive during his days in Carolina. That will be the key to turning everything around in Calgary, and it starts with Huska who will step in to a group that needs to live up to expectations in 2018-19.

Vancouver Canucks Sign Michael DiPietro To Entry-Level Contract

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The Vancouver Canucks are flush with young goaltenders, and have added another one to their impressive stable. Michael DiPietro has signed his three-year entry-level contract, just weeks after being named the third goaltender for Canada during the IIHF World Championship. DiPietro is expected to return to the OHL next season to finish his junior career, meaning the first year of his contract will slide to the 2019-20 season.

DiPietro, 18, was selected in the third round last summer and played well enough for the Windsor Spitfires to earn Goaltender of the Year honors in the OHL. His .910 save percentage doesn’t jump off the page, but he did it on a weak team that had sold off nearly all of their top assets after winning the Memorial Cup last season. He was shockingly invited to participate with Canada at the World Championship despite his young age, though he didn’t get into a game in the international tournament.

The Canucks have Thatcher Demko spoiling on their AHL squad currently, as he patiently waits for a chance in the NHL. That may come sooner than you think, as though Jacob Markstrom and Anders Nilsson make a fine duo, both are unrestricted free agents within the next two years. When Demko graduates to the NHL (provided no trades happen before then), DiPietro will be his heir apparent for the job with the Utica Comets. Though he’s relatively undersized for a goaltender in today’s NHL, DiPietro exhibits an uncanny ability to either deflect shots into non-danger spots on the ice, or recover quickly to make the second save. His elite reflexes allow him to cover whatever he lacks in size, and he should find success at the next level.

St. Louis Blues, New York Islanders Extend Partnership With ECHL Affiliates

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The St. Louis Blues have announced a one-year extension to their affiliation with the ECHL’s Tulsa Oilers. The two organizations worked without the benefit of an AHL partner last season, something that will be remedied this year with the agreement between St. Louis and the San Antonio Rampage for the 2018-19 season and beyond.  Oilers’ Head Coach and Director of Hockey Operations Rob Murray spoke highly of his arrangement with St. Louis:

Having been affiliated with the Blues over the years in both Alaska and Tulsa, I have become very familiar and comfortable with the management team in St. Louis. The partnership got off to a great start last season, as the players we received from St. Louis were key to our success. We’re excited to continue into next season, especially as the Blues begin their AHL affiliation in San Antonio.

Similarly, the New York Islanders have announced an extension with the Worcester Railers through the 2019-20 season. The Railers played their first season in the ECHL last year, going 37-27-8 while qualifying for the Kelly Cup playoffs. Unfortunately knocked out by the Adirondack Thunder in the first round, Worcester will come back with more Islanders prospects next year and try to continue the good start to their franchise.

St. Louis Blues Sign Niko Mikkola To Entry-Level Contract

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The St. Louis Blues have signed one of their 2015 draft picks, inking defenseman Niko Mikkola to a two-year entry-level contract. Mikkola has spent the last few seasons playing at the highest level in Finland, but could now journey to North America to join the Blues organization.

Mikkola, 22, was selected in the fifth round of the 2015 draft but has quickly turned into an imposing presence in the Finnish Liiga. Standing 6’5″ he may be best remembered for being part of Finland’s 2016 World Junior gold medal club, where he was part of an excellent defensive corps that included Olli Juolevi, Sami Niku and Joni Tuulola. That team, led up front by Sebastian Aho, Jesse Puljujarvi and Patrik Laine (not to mention Kasperi Kapanen and Mikko Rantanen) was an unstoppable force that Mikkola part of.

It’s not clear what the Blues’ plans are for Mikkola next season, but there’s little doubt that he’s turned himself from late-round flyer to legitimate NHL prospect. Though never known as an offensive threat, his solid defensive play in Liiga should have St. Louis fans excited for what he could do in a similar role for their club down the road.

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